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PURPOSE: Within the healthy population there is a large variation in the ability to perform smooth pursuit eye movements. Our purpose was to investigate the genetic and physiological bases for this variation. METHODS: We carried out a whole-genome association study, recording smooth pursuit movements for 1040 healthy volunteers by infrared oculography. The primary phenotypic measure was root mean square error (RMSE) of eye position relative to target position. Secondary measures were pursuit gain, frequency of catch-up saccades, and frequency of anticipatory saccades. Ten percent of participants, chosen randomly, were tested twice, giving estimates of test-retest reliability. RESULTS: No significant association was found with three genes previously identified as candidate genes for variation in smooth pursuit: DRD3, COMT, NRG1. A strong association (P = 3.55 × 10-11) was found between RMSE and chromosomal region 1q42.2. The most strongly associated marker (rs701232) lies in an intron of KCNK1, which encodes a two-pore-domain potassium ion channel TWIK-1 (or K2P1) that affects cell excitability. Each additional copy of the A allele decreased RMSE by 0.29 standard deviation. When a psychophysical test of visually perceived motion was used as a covariate in the regression analysis, the association with rs701232 did not weaken (P = 5.38 × 10-12). CONCLUSIONS: Variation in the sequence or the expression of the pH-dependent ion channel TWIK-1 is a likely source of variance in smooth pursuit. The variance associated with TWIK-1 appears not to arise from sensory mechanisms, because the use of a perceptual covariate left the association intact.

In 2014, a fire at an open cut coalmine in regional Victoria, Australia burned for 6 weeks. Residents of the nearby town of Morwell were exposed to smoke, which included high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We investigated whether the long-term effects of PM2.5 on respiratory health were moderated by diet quality. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of data collected 8.5 years after the mine fire from 282 residents of Morwell and 166 residents from the nearby unexposed town of Sale. Primary outcomes were respiratory symptoms. Exposure was coalmine fire-related PM2.5 and diet quality was assessed as Australian Recommended Food Score (ARFS) derived using the Australian Eating Survey (AES). The moderating effect of diet quality on respiratory outcomes associated with PM2.5 was assessed using logistic regression models, adjusting for potential confounders. Diet quality was poor in this sample, with 60% in the lowest category of overall diet quality. Overall diet quality and fruit and vegetable quality significantly attenuated the association between PM2.5 and prevalence of chronic cough and phlegm. Sauce/condiment intake was associated with a greater effect of PM2.5 on COPD prevalence. No other moderating effects were significant. The moderating effects of overall diet quality and vegetable and fruit intake aligned with a priori hypotheses, suggesting potential protective benefits. While more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, improving diets, especially fruit and vegetable intake, may provide some protection against the effects of smoke exposure from fire events.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about lifetime burden of child malnutrition. This study aimed to estimate the lifetime impact of being underweight or overweight/obese during childhood in Vietnam. METHODS: We developed a life table model in combination with a Markov model for Vietnamese children aged 5-19 years and simulated until they reached 75 years of age or died using published data. The starting year was 2019 and the model estimated number of deaths, years of life lived and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) with an annual discount rate of 3%. We performed scenario, one-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of uncertainties in input parameters. RESULTS: The model estimated 9.68 million deaths (6.44 million men and 3.24 million women), 622 million years of life lived (317 million men and 305 million women), and 601 million QALYs (308 million men and 293 million women). Scenario analyses showed that the reduction in either underweight or overweight/obesity alone, and reduction in both underweight and overweight/obesity resulted in fewer deaths, more years of life lived and more QALYs gained. In the scenario where everyone was a healthy weight, the model estimated 577,267 fewer deaths (6.0% less), 2 million more years of life lived (0.3% more), and 3 million QALYs gained (0.6% more) over base-case results which represents current situation in Vietnam. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that addressing underweight and overweight/obesity will contribute to reducing deaths and increasing years of life lived and QALYs. Policies and interventions in alignment with Sustainable Development Goals to address underweight and overweight/obesity are necessary to achieve health for all.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to examine whether weight loss, weight status (based on body mass index [BMI] categories), and abdominal obesity (based on waist circumference [WC]) were associated with a 17-year mortality risk in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Participants were 2,017 community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or above in the longitudinal Enquête de Santé Psychologique-Risques, Incidence et Traitement study. Self-reported weight loss was collected at baseline during face-to-face interviews. Bodyweight (kg), height (m), and WC (cm) were independently measured at the baseline. BMI was categorized as follows: underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2), and obese (≥30 kg/m2). Abdominal obesity was defined by a WC of ≥102 cm in men and ≥88 cm in women. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations of weight loss, weight status, and abdominal obesity with all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Over 17 years of follow-up (median 15.5 years), 812 participants died. Abdominal obesity compared to nonabdominal obesity was associated with a 49% increased mortality risk (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22-1.83). However, being overweight (but not obese) was associated with a 20% decreased risk (95% CI: 0.66-0.97) compared to a normal BMI. Gender did not affect these associations. In the whole cohort, self-reported weight loss at baseline was not associated with an increased mortality risk after adjusting for health and lifestyle factors. However, in men, a baseline self-reported recent weight loss of >3 kg was associated with a 52% increase in mortality risk (95% CI: 1.05-2.18) in a fully adjusted model. CONCLUSION: In community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years, abdominal obesity was strongly associated with increased mortality risk. Being overweight appeared, however, to be protective against mortality. Modest self-reported weight loss was not associated with all-cause mortal

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Obesity poses one of the biggest public health challenges globally. In addition to the high costs of obesity to the healthcare system, obesity also impacts work productivity. We aimed to estimate the benefits of preventing obesity in terms of years of life, productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) and associated costs over 10 years. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Dynamic life table models were constructed to estimate years of life and PALYs saved if all new cases of obesity were prevented among Australians aged 20-69 years from 2021 to 2030. Life tables were sex specific and the population was classified into normal weight, overweight and obese. The model simulation was first undertaken assuming currently observed age-specific incidences of obesity, and then repeated assuming all new cases of obesity were reduced by 2 and 5%. The differences in outcomes (years of life, PALYs, and costs) between the two modelled outputs reflected the potential benefits that could be achieved through obesity prevention. All outcomes were discounted by 5% per annum. RESULTS: Over the next 10 years, 132 million years of life and 81 million PALYs would be lived by Australians aged 20-69 years, contributing AU$17.0 trillion to the Australian economy in terms of GDP. A 5% reduction in new cases of obesity led to a gain of 663 years of life and 1229 PALYs, equivalent to AU$262 million in GDP. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention of obesity is projected to result in substantial economic gains due to improved health and productivity. This further emphasises the need for public health prevention strategies to reduce this growing epidemic.

Later life changes in body weight may be associated with an increased risk of mortality in older adults. The objective of this study was to examine whether weight change over four years was associated with a 17-year mortality risk in older adults. Participants were 1664 community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years in the longitudinal Enquete de Sante’ Psychologique-Risques, Incidence et Traitement (ESPRIT) study. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer mortality. Weight change was defined as difference between weight at baseline and 4 years, categorised into: weight stable (±<5% weight change), weight loss (≥5%) and weight gain (≥5%). Association between weight change and mortality risk was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models. Over 17 years of follow-up (median 15 years), 565 participants died. Compared to stable weight participants, those with ≥ 5% weight loss had an increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.00−1.56, p = 0.05) and CVD mortality (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.10−2.14, p = 0.01), but not cancer mortality (HR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.50−1.39, p = 0.49). Weight gain of ≥5% was not associated with increased mortality (HR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.76−1.45, p = 0.74). Weight monitoring in older adults could help identify weight loss at its early stages to better target interventions to maintain nutritional reserve and prevent premature mortality.

Abstract Background With economic and social changes, participation in occupational and transport-related physical activity is declining among Nepalese adults, highlighting the growing importance of leisure-time physical activity. However, limited information is available to guide public health policies and interventions to promote leisure-time physical activity in Nepal. This study aimed to qualitatively explore the socioecological influences of participation in leisure-time physical activity among Nepalese adults aged 40 years and above. Methods A total of 51 adults (30 females and 21 males) participated in one of the nine focus groups conducted in Kathmandu, Nepal. A semi-structured guide based on the social-ecological model of physical activity was used to facilitate these focus groups. Data were analysed using a reflexive thematic analysis approach in NVivo 12. Results Participation in leisure-time physical activity was minimal and leisure time was mostly spent resting, socialising, or engaging in sedentary activities such as watching television. Walking was the most common form of leisure-time physical activity, and men reported being more active than women. Individual-level barriers included lack of knowledge, lack of skill, lack of motivation, considering oneself as sufficiently active and engagement in sedentary screen activities. Family and household responsibilities, lack of support and fear of being judged constituted the interpersonal barriers while environmental barriers included an absence of a supportive social norm, lack of open spaces, weather conditions and perceived lack of safety. Health benefits, prioritising physical activity, social support, provision of group-based activities and age-appropriate public exercise facilities were identified as major fa

Previous research suggests that a range of factors influence an individual’s physical activity (PA) participation, but studies among Nepalese adults are limited. In this qualitative study, we aimed to explore the multilevel influences upon PA participation among community-dwelling adults aged 40 years and above living in an urban setting in Kathmandu, Nepal. Men ( n = 21) and women ( n = 30) were purposively sampled to participate in one of nine focus group discussions. Types of PA undertaken constituted activities related to housework, farm work, and active travel. Individual-level barriers included lack of knowledge, lack of motivation, perceptions of already being active, personal limitations, and lack of time. Interpersonal barriers included household responsibilities and lack of support. Broader environmental barriers included lack of infrastructure for active commuting, poor safety, rising use of motorized transport, lack of resting areas, weak social norms about PA, declining agricultural engagement, mechanization, and improved access to technology and facilities. Some differences were observed between the gender and disease groups. Health benefits, integration into domestic work, opportunities for social interaction, and social support were the facilitators. Interventions focusing on families, highlighting the short- and long-term benefits of PA, addressing gender roles, and ensuring women are better supported represent opportunities to promote PA. Community-based interventions will be essential to establish social norms around PA and improve social support.

Abstract Background Poor social health is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Recent research suggests that different social health domains should be considered separately as the implications for health and possible interventions may differ. Aim To assess social isolation, low social support and loneliness as predictors of CVD. Methods Secondary analysis of 11,486 community-dwelling, Australians, aged 70 years and over, free of CVD, dementia, or significant physical disability, from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial. Social isolation, social support (Revised Lubben Social Network Scale), and loneliness were assessed as predictors of CVD using Cox proportional-hazard regression. CVD events included fatal CVD, heart failure hospitalization, myocardial infarction and stroke. Analyses were adjusted for established CVD risk factors. Results Individuals with poor social health were 42 % more likely to develop CVD (p = 0.01) and twice as likely to die from CVD (p = 0.02) over a median 4.5 years follow-up. Interaction effects indicated that poorer social health more strongly predicted CVD in smokers (HR 4.83, p = 0.001, p-interaction = 0.01), major city dwellers (HR 1.94, p < 0.001, p-interaction=0.03), and younger older adults (70-75 years; HR 2.12, p < 0.001, p-interaction = 0.01). Social isolation (HR 1.66, p = 0.04) and low social support (HR 2.05, p = 0.002), but not loneliness (HR 1.4, p = 0.1), predicted incident CVD. All measures of poor social health predicted ischemic stroke (HR 1.73 to 3.16). Conclusions Among healthy older adults, social isolation and low social support may be more im

Abstract Objective there may be age-related differences in the impact of weight change on health. This study systematically reviewed the evidence on the relationship between weight change and all-cause mortality in adults aged 65 years and older. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL were searched from inception to 11 June 2020, PROSPERO CRD 42019142268. We included observational studies reporting on the association between weight change and all-cause mortality in older community-dwelling adults. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to calculate pooled hazard ratios and scored based on the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality guidelines. Results a total of 30 studies, including 1,219,279 participants with 69,255 deaths, demonstrated that weight loss was associated with a 59% increase in mortality risk (hazard ratio (HR): 1.59; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.45–1.74; P < 0.001). Twenty-seven studies that reported outcomes for weight gain (1,210,116 participants with 65,481 deaths) indicated that weight gain was associated with a 10% increase in all-cause mortality (HR: 1.10; 95%CI: 1.02, 1.17; P = 0.01). Four studies investigated weight fluctuation (2,283 events among 6,901 participants), which was associated with a 63% increased mortality risk (HR: 1.66; 95%CI: 1.28, 2.15). No evidence of publication bias was observed (all P > 0.05). Conclusion for community-dwelling older adults, weight changes (weight loss, gain or weight fluctuation) are associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality risk relative to stable weight. Further research is needed to determine whether these associations vary depending upon initial weight, and whether or not the weight loss/gain was intention

AIMS: Risk factors for asymptomatic echocardiographic abnormalities that predict symptomatic heart failure (HF) may provide insight into early mechanisms of HF pathogenesis. We examined risk factors associated with asymptomatic echocardiographic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities, separately and in combination, and interactions between risk factors, in the prospective community-based SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New HF (SCREEN-HF) Study cohort of 3190 participants at increased risk of cardiovascular disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more of hypertension, diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known HF, ejection fraction < 50%, or >mild valve abnormality. Structural, systolic, and diastolic echocardiographic abnormalities were defined according to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study criteria, and risk factors for asymptomatic structural, systolic, and diastolic abnormalities were identified using logistic regression analysis. In multivariable analysis, increased body mass index (BMI), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug therapy, and alcohol intake were risk factors for isolated structural abnormality, whereas male gender, increased heart rate, atrial fibrillation (AF), angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy, and obstructive sleep apnoea were associated with a lower risk. Moreover, male gender, smoking, increased systolic blood pressure, and physical inactivity were risk factors for isolated systolic abnormality, whereas increased pulse pressure and antihypertensive therapy were associated with a lower risk. Furthermore, increased age, blood pressure, amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level, and warfarin therapy (associated with AF) were risk factors for isolated diastolic abnormality, whereas increased heart rate and triglyceride level (associated with

STUDY OBJECTIVE: What is the association between anticholinergic burden and specific domains of cognitive function in older adults who are initially without major cognitive impairment? DESIGN: Post-hoc analysis of longitudinal observational data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study. PATIENTS: 19,114 participants from Australia and the United States aged 70 years and older (65 years and older for US minorities) were recruited and followed for a median of 4.7 years. At enrollment, participants were free of known cardiovascular disease, major physical disability, or dementia. MEASUREMENTS: Cognitive assessments administered at baseline and biennially at follow-up visits included the Modified Mini-Mental State examination (3MS), Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised (HVLT-R) delayed recall, Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT), and Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). Anticholinergic burden was calculated at baseline using the Anticholinergic Cognitive Burden (ACB) scale and grouped as scores of 0 (no burden), 1-2 (low to moderate), or 3+ (high). MAIN RESULTS: Linear mixed effects models were used to assess the relationship between ACB score and cognition over time. After adjusting for sex, age, education, minority status, smoking status, hypertension, diabetes, depression, chronic kidney disease, country, and frailty, participants with a high ACB score had worse performance over time for 3MS (Adjusted [Adj] B=-0.092, P=0.034), HVLT-R delayed recall (Adj B=-0.104, P<0.001), COWAT (Adj B=-0.151, P<0.001), and SDMT (Adj B=-0.129, P=0.026), than participants with an ACB score of 0. A low to moderate ACB score was also associated with worse performance over time for HVLT-R delayed recall (Adj B=-0.037, P=0.007) and COWAT (Adj B=-0.065, P=0.003), compared to those with no ACB. CONCLUSIONS: Anticholinergic burden predicts worse cognitive function over time in initially dementia-free older adults, particularly for executive function (COWAT)

OBJECTIVE: As a result of the coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) pandemic, Australia adopted emergency measures on 22 March 2020. This study reports the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on appetite and overeating in Australian adults during the first month of emergency measures. DESIGN: This study reports analysis of data from the population-based, self-completed survey. The main outcome measure was an item from the Patient Health Questionnaire 9 asking: 'Over the past 2 weeks, how often have you been bothered by poor appetite or overeating?'. Data on sociodemographic factors, symptoms of anxiety and depression, and the impact of COVID-19 and lockdown were also collected. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations with poor appetite or overeating. SETTING: An anonymous online survey available from 3 April to 2 May 2020. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 13 829 Australian residents aged 18 years or over. RESULTS: The weighted prevalence of being bothered by poor appetite or overeating in the past 2 weeks was 53·6 %, with 11·6 % (95 % CI 10·6, 12·6) of the cohort reporting poor appetite or overeating nearly every day. High levels of anxiety, concern about contracting COVID-19, being in lockdown with children and reporting a severe impact of the lockdown were associated with increased odds of poor appetite or overeating. CONCLUSIONS: Given the widespread prevalence of being bothered by poor appetite or overeating, universal public health interventions to address emotion-focused or situational eating during periods of lockdown may be appropriate.

BACKGROUND: Given the age-related decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in healthy individuals, we examined the association of all-cause death or cardiovascular event with the Kidney age - Chronological age Difference (KCD) score, whereby an individual's kidney age is estimated from their estimated GFR (eGFR) and the age-dependent eGFR decline reported for healthy living potential kidney donors. METHODS: We examined the association between death or cardiovascular event and KCD score, age-dependent stepped eGFR criteria (eGFRstep), and eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 (eGFR60) in a community-based high cardiovascular risk cohort of 3837 individuals aged ≥60 (median 70, interquartile range 65, 75) years, followed for a median of 5.6 years. RESULTS: In proportional hazards analysis, KCD score ≥ 20 years (KCD20) was associated with increased risk of death or cardiovascular event in unadjusted analysis and after adjustment for age, sex and cardiovascular risk factors. Addition of KCD20, eGFRstep or eGFR60 to a cardiovascular risk factor model did not improve area under the curve for identification of individuals who experienced death or cardiovascular event in receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. However, addition of KCD20 or eGFR60, but not eGFRstep, to a cardiovascular risk factor model improved net reclassification and integrated discrimination. KCD20 identified individuals who experienced death or cardiovascular event with greater sensitivity than eGFRstep for all participants, and with greater sensitivity than eGFR60 for participants aged 60-69 years, with similar sensitivities for men and women. CONCLUSIONS: In this high cardiovascular risk cohort aged ≥60 years, the KCD score provided an age-adapted measure of kidney function that may assist patient education, and KCD20 provided an age-adapted criterion of eGFR-related increased risk of death or cardiovascular event. Further studies that include the full age spectrum are required to examine the optimal

OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the Pain Impact Index, a simple, brief, easy-to-use, and novel tool to assess the impact of chronic pain in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: A Rasch modelling analysis was undertaken in Stata using a partial credit model suited to the Likert-type items that comprised the Index. The Index was evaluated for ordering of category thresholds, unidimensionality, overall fit to the Rasch model, measurement bias (Differential Item Functioning, DIF), targeting, and construct validity. RESULTS: The four-item Pain Impact Index was self-completed by 6454 community-dwelling Australians who were aged at least 70 years and experienced pain on most days. Two items showed evidence of threshold disordering, and this was resolved by collapsing response categories (from 5 to 3) for all items. The rescored Index conformed to the unidimensionality assumption and had satisfactory fit with the Rasch model (analyses conducted on a reduced sample size to mitigate the potential for overpowering: n = 377, P > 0.0125, power > 77%). When considering uniform DIF, the most frequent sources of measurement bias were age, knee pain, and upper back pain. When considering nonuniform DIF, the most frequent source of measurement bias was knee pain. The Index had good ability to differentiate between respondents with different levels of pain impact and had highest measurement precision for respondents located around the average level of pain impact in the study sample. Both convergent and discriminant validity of the Index were supported. CONCLUSION: The Pain Impact Index showed evidence of unidimensionality, was able to successfully differentiate between levels of pain impact, and had good evidence of construct validity.

This study examined the relationship between diet quality scores and cardiometabolic risk factors in regionally-dwelling older Australian adults with increased cardiovascular risk. This study was a cross-sectional analysis of demographic, anthropometric, and cardiometabolic risk factor data from 458 participants of the Cardiovascular Stream of the Hazelwood Health Study. Participants completed a 120 item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Multivariable linear regression adjusting for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, education, diabetes, and body mass index was used to examine the relationship between diet and cardiometabolic risk factors. Mean (SD) age of participants was 71 (8) years, and 55% were male. More than half of men and women did not meet recommended intakes of fibre, while 60% of men and 42% of women exceeded recommended dietary sodium intakes. Higher diet quality in terms of intake of vegetables, grains, and non-processed meat, as well as intake of non-fried fish, was associated with more favourable cardiometabolic risk profiles, while sugar-sweetened soft drink intake was strongly associated with adverse cardiometabolic risk factor levels. In older, regionally-dwelling adults, dietary public health strategies that address whole grain products, vegetable and fish consumption, and sugar-sweetened soft-drink intake may be of benefit in reducing cardiometabolic risk.

AIM: Heart failure (HF) incidence increases markedly with age. We examined age-associated longitudinal change in cardiac structure and function, and their prediction by age and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, in a community-based cohort aged ≥60 years at increased CVD risk but without HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: CVD risk factors were recorded in 3065 participants who underwent a baseline echocardiographic examination, of whom 2358 attended a follow-up examination 3.8 [median, inter-quartile range (IQR) 3.5, 4.2] years later. Median age was 71 (IQR 67, 76) years and 55% of participants were male. Age was associated with longitudinal increase in left ventricular (LV) mass index (LVMI); decrease in LV volumes; increase in LV ejection fraction; decrease in mitral annular systolic velocity; decrease in diastolic function (decreased mitral early diastolic annular velocity (e'); and increase in left atrial volume index, mitral peak early diastolic flow velocity (E)/e' ratio, and tricuspid regurgitant velocity (TRVmax ) in men and women, except for TRVmax in men). In multivariable analysis, longitudinal increase in LVMI was explained by CVD risk factors alone, whereas age, together with CVD risk factors, independently predicted longitudinal change in all other echocardiographic parameters. CVD risk factors were differentially associated with longitudinal change in different echocardiographic parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Whereas the increase in LVMI with age was explained by CVD risk factors alone, age, together with risk factors, independently predicted longitudinal change in all other echocardiographic parameters, providing evidence for age-specific mechanisms of change in cardiac structure and function as people age. Age-associated change in LVMI, LV volumes, and diastolic function resembled what might be expected for the evolution of HF with preserved ejection fraction. Given the differential association of different CVD risk factors with longitudinal change in diffe

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to quantify the health and productivity burden of migraines in Australia, measured by quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs, a novel measure of productivity), and associated health-care and broader economic costs. METHODS: A Markov state-transition model was constructed to simulate follow-up of Australians aged 20-64 years over the next 10 years. The model was first run using current prevalence estimates of migraine. It was then rerun assuming that people with migraine hypothetically did not have the condition. Differences in outcomes between the 2 model simulations represented the health and productivity burden attributable to migraine. All data inputs were obtained from published sources. Gross domestic product (GDP) per equivalent full-time worker in Australia was used to reflect the cost of each PALY (AU$177,092). Future costs and outcomes were discounted by 5% annually. RESULTS: Currently, 1,274,319 million (8.5%) Australians aged 20-64 years have migraine. Over the next 10 years, migraine was predicted to lead to a loss of 2,577,783 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2,054,980 to 3,000,784) QALYs among this cohort (2.02 per person and 2.43% of total QALYs), and AU$1.67 (95% CI $1.16 to $2.37) billion in health-care costs (AU$1313 per person, 95% CI $914 to $1862). There would also be 384,740 (95% CI 299,102 to 479,803) PALYs lost (0.30 per person and 0.53% of total PALYs), resulting in AU$68.13 (95% CI $44.42 to $98.25) billion of lost GDP (AU$53,467 per person, 95% CI $34,855 to $77,102). CONCLUSION: Migraines impose a substantial health and economic burden on Australians of working age. Funding interventions that reduce the prevalence of migraines and/or its effects are likely to provide sound return on investment.

Several studies have associated skipping (not having) breakfast with cardiometabolic risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, unfavorable lipid profiles, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome. We examined the available evidence regarding the effect of skipping breakfast on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, as well as all-cause mortality. Medline, Embase, and Web of Science were searched from inception until May 2019 to identify prospective cohort studies that examined the association between skipping breakfast and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and all-cause death. Electronic searches were supplemented by manual screening of the references of retrieved studies. Out of 456 citations identified, four studies (from Japan and the US) were included. The included studies involved a total of 199,634 adults (aged ≥40 years; 48.5% female) without known cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline followed over a median duration of 17.4 years. The pooled data suggested that people who regularly skipped breakfast were about 21% more likely (hazard ratio (HR) 1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.35; I2 = 17.3%, p = 0.304) to experience incident CVD or die from it than people who regularly consumed breakfast. Also, the risk of all-cause death was 32% higher (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.17-1.48; I2 = 7.6%, p = 0.339) in people who regularly skipped breakfast than in people who regularly consumed breakfast. However, the definition of skipping breakfast was heterogenous and adjustment for confounders varied significantly. Therefore, residual confounding could not be ruled out and caution is required in the interpretation of the findings. Hence, large prospective studies with a consistent definition of skipping breakfast, and conducted across different populations, are needed to provide more robust evidence of the health effects of skipping breakfast.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the impact of smoking on productivity in Australia, in terms of years of life lost, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost and the novel measure of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost. METHODS: Life table modelling using contemporary Australian data simulated follow-up of current smokers aged 20-69 years until age 70 years. Excess mortality, health-related quality of life decrements and relative reduction in productivity attributable to smoking were sourced from published data. The gross domestic product (GDP) per equivalent full-time (EFT) worker in Australia in 2016 was used to estimate the cost of productivity loss attributable to smoking at a population level. RESULTS: At present, approximately 2.5 million Australians (17.4%) aged between 20 and 69 years are smokers. Assuming follow-up of this population until the age of 70 years, more than 3.1 million years of life would be lost to smoking, as well as 6.0 million QALYs and 2.5 million PALYs. This equates to 4.2% of years of life, 9.4% QALYs and 6.0% PALYs lost among Australian working-age smokers. At an individual level, this is equivalent to 1.2 years of life, 2.4 QALYs and 1.0 PALY lost per smoker. Assuming (conservatively) that each PALY in Australia is equivalent to $A157 000 (GDP per EFT worker in 2016), the economic impact of lost productivity would amount to $A388 billion. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the potential health and productivity gains that may be achieved from further tobacco control measures in Australia via application of PALYs, which are a novel, and readily estimable, measure of the impact of health and health risk factors on work productivity.

AIMS: We investigated which serum amino-terminal pro-B-type-natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels inform heart failure (HF) risk in a community-based population at increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more of self-reported hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, or renal impairment. Exclusion criteria were known HF, ejection fraction (EF) < 50%, or more than mild valve abnormality. NT-proBNP levels were measured in 3842 participants on enrolment. HF was diagnosed in 162 participants at a median of 4.5 (interquartile range 2.7-5.4) years after enrolment, 73 with HF with preserved EF (HFpEF), 53 with HF with reduced EF (HFrEF), and 36 with valvular HF (VHF). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 5-year prediction of total HF were similar for NT-proBNP alone (0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.74-0.83) and a 7-parameter multivariable model (0.82, 0.77-0.86, P = 0.035). NT-proBNP cut-points of 11, 16, and 25 pmol/L for individuals aged 60-69, 70-79, and ≥ 80 years, respectively, achieved sensitivities > 76% and specificities of 47-69% for 5-year prediction of total HF in men and women in all three age groups. Sensitivities were ≥ 75% in most subgroups according to body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and the presence or absence of atrial fibrillation, pacemaker, or CVD, and for the prediction of HFpEF, HFrEF and VHF. CONCLUSION: Age-specific serum NT-proBNP levels inform prognosis, and hence therapeutic decisions, regarding HF risk in individuals at increased CVD risk.

Lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) should be accompanied by dietary guidance for cardiovascular risk reduction; however, current evidence suggests sub-optimal dietary behaviors in those on LLT. We examined the associations between the dietary intake of key food groups (vegetables, fruit, cereal, protein, and dairy) and LLT use in Australian adults using quantile regression. We used data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab), a prospective population-based study of adults aged ≥25 years, conducted over 5 years (1999-2005). Measurements included a 121-item food frequency questionnaire and LLT use. LLT use was categorized as: LLT users (n = 446), commenced LLT (n = 565), ceased LLT (n = 71), and non-users (n = 4813). Less than 1% of the cohort met recommended intakes of all food groups at the baseline and follow up. The median daily dietary intake at the follow up among LLT users was 2.2 serves of vegetables, 1.4 serves of fruit, 2.8 serves of cereal, 2.0 serves of protein, and 1.4 serves of dairy. Adjusted analysis showed no differences across the quantiles of intake of key food groups in LLT users and commenced LLT compared to non-users. The LLT medication status is not associated with any difference in meeting recommended intakes of key foods.

Dietary patterns may be related to quality of life (QoL) of older adults, although evidence from literature is conflicting. The demographic shifts toward ageing populations in many countries increases the importance of understanding the relationship between diet and QoL in older adults. This review was designed to investigate associations between dietary patterns and QoL in older adults. The systematic review followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Eight electronic databases were searched to identify articles published in English from January 1975 to March 2018 that investigated associations between dietary patterns and QoL in older adults. Relevant studies were identified based on set inclusion and exclusion criteria, data were extracted and analysed to examine the relationships and possible implications for public health recommendations. The systematic review included 15 articles (One randomized control trial, six prospective cohorts and eight cross sectional). The studies looked at correlations between different dietary patterns and/or adherence to particular dietary patterns and self-reported QoL or self-rated health status. Excluding two studies which showed no significant association, healthy dietary patterns were associated with better self-rated health and QoL in one or more domains, and adherence to healthy dietary patterns like the Mediterranean diet were significantly associated with improvement in at least one of the QoL domains.

BACKGROUND: Effective management of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease risk factors offers longer, healthier lives and savings in healthcare. AIM: To examine risk factor management in participants of the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure study, a self-selected population at increased cardiovascular disease risk recruited from members of a health insurance fund in Melbourne and Shepparton, Australia. METHODS: Inclusion criteria were age ≥ 60 years with one or more self-reported ischaemic or other heart diseases, irregular or rapid heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, renal impairment or treatment for hypertension or diabetes for ≥2 years. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure or cardiac abnormality on echocardiography or other imaging. Medical history, clinical examination, full blood examination and biochemistry (without lipids and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c)) were performed for 3847 participants on enrolment, and blood pressure, lipids and HbA1c were measured 1-2 years after enrolment for 3203 participants. RESULTS: Despite 99% of 3294 participants with hypertension receiving antihypertensive medication, half had blood pressures >140/90 mmHg. Approximately 77% of participants were overweight or obese, with one third being obese. Additionally, 74% of participants at high cardiovascular disease risk had low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥2 mmol/L, one third of diabetic participants had HbA1c >7%, 22% had an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73m2 , and substantial proportions had under-utilisation of antiplatelet therapy and anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation and were physically inactive. CONCLUSIONS: This population demonstrated substantial potential to reduce cardiovascular and renal morbidity and mortality and healthcare costs through more effective management of modifiable risk factors.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of a systematic collection of data pertaining to heart failure, summarizing the data available from individual studies provides an opportunity to estimate the burden of heart failure. The present study systematically reviewed the literature to estimate the incidence and prevalence rates of heart failure in Australia. METHODS: Studies reporting on prevalence or incidence of heart failure published between 1990 and 2015 were identified through a systematic search of Embase, PubMed, Ovid Medline, MeSH, Scopus and websites of the Australian Institute of Health, and Welfare and Australian Bureau of Statistics. RESULTS: The search yielded a total of 4978 records, of which thirteen met the inclusion criteria. There were no studies reporting on the incidence of heart failure. The prevalence of heart failure in the Australian population ranged between 1.0% and 2.0%, with a significant proportion of cases being previously undiagnosed. The burden of heart failure was higher among Indigenous than non-Indigenous Australians (age-standardized prevalence rate ratio of 1.7). Heart failure was prevalent in women than men, and in rural and remote regions than in the metropolitan and capital territories. CONCLUSION: This systematic review highlights the limited available data on the epidemiology of heart failure in Australia. Population level studies, using standardized approaches, are needed in order to precisely describe the burden of HF in the population.