1. Post-2023 election scenarios in Turkey
- Author
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Esen, Berk and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
- Subjects
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ,Turkey ,Politikwissenschaft ,opposition ,Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) ,Präsidentschaftswahl ,Ali Babacan ,Migrationspolitik ,parliamentary election ,change of government ,Türkei ,Szenario ,Wahlergebnis ,Ahmet Davutoğlu ,Kandidatur ,Außenpolitik ,candidacy ,Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture ,Staatsoberhaupt ,Political science ,Reformpolitik ,politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur ,Future Party (GP) ,Parlamentswahl ,reform policy ,election result ,Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) ,formation of a government ,Nation Alliance ,head of state ,parliamentary and presidential elections ,Justice and Development Party (AKP) ,Regierungswechsel ,scenario ,presidential election ,foreign policy ,ddc:320 ,Erdoğan, Recep Tayyip ,Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (Türkiye) ,Wahlbündnis ,Oppositionspartei ,Oppositionsführer ,Entwicklungsperspektive und -tendenz ,Wahlfälschungen/Wahlbetrug ,Präsidiales Regierungssystem ,Wirtschaftskrise ,Außenpolitische Neuorientierung ,Flüchtlinge ,Syrer ,Syrien ,Politische Reformen ,Öffentlicher Dienst ,EU-/EG-Länder ,Europäische Union ,Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi (Türkiye) ,Halkların Demokratik Partisi (Türkiye) ,Regierungsbildung ,migration policy - Abstract
Millions of Turkish voters are geared up for the twin (parliamentary and presidential) elections that are scheduled to take place in June 2023 at the latest. After nearly 20 years in power, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's rule may seem unassailable to many observers of Turkish politics. However, owing to the economic downturn and rifts in his ruling party, this will be the first election in which Erdoğan is not the clear favourite. Six opposition parties of different ideological origins have come together to pick a joint presidential candidate to stand against Erdoğan and to offer a common platform for restoring parliamentary democracy. Although the opposition alliance has reasonable chances of defeating Erdoğan's ruling bloc, their victory would not guarantee a smooth process of transition to parliamentary democracy. If the opposition can defeat Erdoğan, the new government would need to undertake the arduous tasks of establishing a meritocratic bureaucracy, restructuring Turkey's diplomatic course and economic policy, and switching back to parliamentary rule. Due to the opposition alliance's diverse composition, accomplishing these goals may be as difficult as winning the elections.
- Published
- 2022