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Aims/hypothesis Excess adiposity is differentially associated with increased risk of cardiometabolic disease in men and women, according to observational studies. Causal inference studies largely assume a linear relationship between BMI and cardiometabolic outcomes, which may not be the case. In this study, we investigated the shapes of the causal relationships between BMI and cardiometabolic diseases and risk factors. We further investigated sex differences within the causal framework. Methods To assess causal relationships between BMI and the outcomes, we used two-stage least-squares Mendelian randomisation (MR), with a polygenic risk score for BMI as the instrumental variable. To elucidate the shapes of the causal relationships, we used a non-linear MR fractional polynomial method, and used piecewise MR to investigate threshold relationships and confirm the shapes. Results BMI was associated with type 2 diabetes (OR 3.10; 95% CI 2.73, 3.53), hypertension (OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.44, 1.62) and coronary artery disease (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.08, 1.33), but not chronic kidney disease (OR 1.08; 95% CI 0.67, 1.72) or stroke (OR 1.08; 95% CI 0.92, 1.28). The data suggest that these relationships are non-linear. For cardiometabolic risk factors, BMI was positively associated with glucose, HbA1c, triacylglycerol levels and both systolic and diastolic BP. BMI had an inverse causal relationship with total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and HDL-cholesterol. The data suggest a non-linear causal relationship between BMI and BP and other biomarkers (pp Conclusions/interpretation We describe the shapes of causal effects of BMI on cardiometabolic diseases and risk factors, and report sex differences in the causal effects of BMI on LDL-cholesterol. We found evidence of non-linearity in the causal effect of BMI on diseases and risk factor biomarkers. Reducing excess adiposity is highly beneficial for health, but there is greater need to consider biological sex in the management of adiposity. Graphical abstract

Obesity and type 2 diabetes are causally related, yet there is considerable heterogeneity in the consequences of both conditions and the mechanisms of action are poorly defined. Here we show a genetic-driven approach defining two obesity profiles that convey highly concordant and discordant diabetogenic effects. We annotate and then compare association signals for these profiles across clinical and molecular phenotypic layers. Key differences are identified in a wide range of traits, including cardiovascular mortality, fat distribution, liver metabolism, blood pressure, specific lipid fractions and blood levels of proteins involved in extracellular matrix remodelling. We find marginal differences in abundance of Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes bacteria in the gut. Instrumental analyses reveal prominent causal roles for waist-to-hip ratio, blood pressure and cholesterol content of high-density lipoprotein particles in the development of diabetes in obesity. We prioritize 17 genes from the discordant signature that convey protection against type 2 diabetes in obesity, which may represent logical targets for precision medicine approaches.

Obesity and type 2 diabetes are causally related, yet the underlying mechanisms are poorly defined. We aimed to subclassify obesity into etiological subtypes using a genetic-driven agnostic approach. Genetic instruments for body mass index and type 2 diabetes were classified into profiles that convey highly concordant (48 SNPs) and discordant (19 SNPs) diabetogenic effects. We annotated association signals for these instruments across clinical and molecular phenotypic layers, spanning > 5,000 traits. Using a combination of machine-learning techniques, key differences were identified in fat distribution, liver metabolism, blood pressure, lipids and branched-chain amino-acids, as well as the sulfotransferase HS6ST2 and several bacterial taxa belonging to the Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes phyla. We reproduced the clinical differences with polygenic scores specific to each profile in an independent cohort, which revealed differential cardiovascular mortality by obesity subtype. Mendelian randomization analyses revealed prominent roles of waist-to-hip ratio, concentration and cholesterol content of HDL particles, and blood pressure in the causal processes leading to diabetes in obesity; through these analyses, we prioritized 17 genes from the discordant signature that convey protection against type 2 diabetes in obesity.

Assessing the causal effects of individual dietary macronutrients and cardiometabolic disease is challenging because distinguish direct effects from those mediated or confounded by other factors is difficult. To estimate these effects, intake of protein, carbohydrate, sugar, fat, and its subtypes were obtained using food frequency data derived from a Swedish population-based cohort (n~60,000). Data on clinical outcomes (i.e., type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence) were obtained by linking health registry data. We assessed the magnitude of direct and mediated effects of diet, adiposity and physical activity on T2D and CVD using structural equation modelling (SEM). To strengthen causal inference, we used Mendelian randomization (MR) to model macronutrient intake exposures against clinical outcomes. We identified likely causal effects of genetically predicted carbohydrate intake (including sugar intake) and T2D, independent of adiposity and physical activity. Pairwise, serial- and parallel-mediational configurations yielded similar results. In the integrative genomic analyses, the candidate causal variant localized to the established T2D gene TCF7L2. These findings may be informative when considering which dietary modifications included in nutritional guidelines are most likely to elicit health-promoting effects.

Aims/hypothesis It is well established that physical activity, abdominal ectopic fat and glycaemic regulation are related but the underlying structure of these relationships is unclear. The previously proposed twin-cycle hypothesis (TC) provides a mechanistic basis for impairment in glycaemic control through the interactions of substrate availability, substrate metabolism and abdominal ectopic fat accumulation. Here, we hypothesise that the effect of physical activity in glucose regulation is mediated by the twin-cycle. We aimed to examine this notion in the Innovative Medicines Initiative Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (IMI DIRECT) Consortium cohorts comprised of participants with normal or impaired glucose regulation (cohort 1: N ≤ 920) or with recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes (cohort 2: N ≤ 435). Methods We defined a structural equation model that describes the TC and fitted this within the IMI DIRECT dataset. A second model, twin-cycle plus physical activity (TC-PA), to assess the extent to which the effects of physical activity in glycaemic regulation are mediated by components in the twin-cycle, was also fitted. Beta cell function, insulin sensitivity and glycaemic control were modelled from frequently sampled 75 g OGTTs (fsOGTTs) and mixed-meal tolerance tests (MMTTs) in participants without and with diabetes, respectively. Abdominal fat distribution was assessed using MRI, and physical activity through wrist-worn triaxial accelerometry. Results are presented as standardised beta coefficients, SE and p values, respectively. Results The TC and TC-PA models showed better fit than null models (TC: χ2 = 242, p = 0.004 and χ2 = 63, p = 0.001 in cohort 1 and 2, respectively; TC-PA: χ2 = 180, p = 0.041 and χ2 = 60, p = 0.008 in cohort 1 and 2, respectively). The association of physical activity with glycaemic control was primarily mediated by variables in the liver fat cycle. Conclusions/interpretation These analyses partially support the mechanisms proposed in the twin-cycle model and highlight mechanistic pathways through which insulin sensitivity and liver fat mediate the association between physical activity and glycaemic control.

Assessing the causal effects of individual dietary macronutrients and cardiometabolic disease is challenging because distinguish direct effects from those mediated or confounded by other factors is difficult. To estimate these effects, intake of protein, carbohydrate, sugar, fat, and its subtypes were obtained using food frequency data derived from a Swedish population-based cohort (n~60,000). Data on clinical outcomes (i.e., type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence) were obtained by linking health registry data. We assessed the magnitude of direct and mediated effects of diet, adiposity and physical activity on T2D and CVD using structural equation modelling (SEM). To strengthen causal inference, we used Mendelian randomization (MR) to model macronutrient intake exposures against clinical outcomes. We identified likely causal effects of genetically predicted carbohydrate intake (including sugar intake) and T2D, independent of adiposity and physical activity. Pairwise, serial- and parallel-mediational configurations yielded similar results. In the integrative genomic analyses, the candidate causal variant localized to the established T2D gene

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) often co-occur. Defining causal pathways underlying this relationship may help optimize the prevention and treatment of both diseases. Thus, we assessed the strength and magnitude of the putative causal pathways linking dysglycemia and fatty liver, using a combination of causal inference methods.Measures of glycemia, insulin dynamics, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived abdominal and liver fat content, serological biomarkers, lifestyle, and anthropometry were obtained in participants from the IMI DIRECT cohorts (n=795 with new onset T2D and 2234 individuals free from diabetes). UK Biobank (n=3641) was used for modelling and replication purposes. Bayesian networks were employed to infer causal pathways, with causal validation using two-sample Mendelian randomization.Bayesian networks fitted to IMI DIRECT data identified higher basal insulin secretion rate (BasalISR) and MRI-derived excess visceral fat (VAT) accumulation as the features of dysmetabolism most likely to cause liver fat accumulation; the unconditional probability of fatty liver (>5%) increased significantly when conditioning on high levels of BasalISR and VAT (by 23%, 32% respectively; 40% for both). Analyses in UK Biobank yielded comparable results. MR confirmed most causal pathways predicted by the Bayesian networks.Here, BasalISR had the highest causal effect on fatty liver predisposition, providing mechanistic evidence underpinning the established association of NAFLD and T2D. BasalISR may represent a pragmatic biomarker for NAFLD prediction in clinical practice.

Metabolism plays a central role in evolution, as resource conservation is a selective pressure for fitness and survival. Resource-driven adaptations offer a good model to study evolutionary innovation more broadly. It remains unknown how resource-driven optimization of genome function integrates chromatin architecture with transcriptional phase transitions. Here we show that tuning of genome architecture and heterotypic transcriptional condensates mediate resilience to nutrient limitation. Network genomic integration of phenotypic, structural, and functional relationships reveals that fat tissue promotes organismal adaptations through metabolic acceleration chromatin domains and heterotypic PGC1A condensates. We find evolutionary adaptations in several dimensions; low conservation of amino acid residues within protein disorder regions, nonrandom chromatin location of metabolic acceleration domains, condensate-chromatin stability through cis-regulatory anchoring and encoding of genome plasticity in radial chromatin organization. We show that environmental tuning of these adaptations leads to fasting endurance, through efficient nuclear compartmentalization of lipid metabolic regions, and, locally, human-specific burst kinetics of lipid cycling genes. This process reduces oxidative stress, and fatty-acid mediated cellular acidification, enabling endurance of condensate chromatin conformations. Comparative genomics of genetic and diet perturbations reveal mammalian convergence of phenotype and structural relationships, along with loss of transcriptional control by diet-induced obesity. Further, we find that radial transcriptional organization is encoded in functional divergence of metabolic disease variant-hubs, heterotypic condensate composition, and protein residues sensing metabolic variation. During fuel restriction, these features license the formation of large heterotypic condensates that buffer proton excess, and shift viscoelasticity for condensate endurance. This mechanism maintains physiological pH, reduces pH-resilient inflammatory gene programs, and enables genome plasticity through transcriptionally driven cell-specific chromatin contacts. In vivo manipulation of this circuit promotes fasting-like adaptations with heterotypic nuclear compartments, metabolic and cell-specific homeostasis. In sum, we uncover here a general principle by which transcription uses environmental fluctuations for genome function, and demonstrate how resource conservation optimizes transcriptional self-organization through robust feedback integrators, highlighting obesity as an inhibitor of genome plasticity relevant for many diseases.

Prediabetes is a state of glycaemic dysregulation below the diagnostic threshold of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Globally, ~352 million people have prediabetes, of which 35-50% develop full-blown diabetes within five years. T2D and its complications are costly to treat, causing considerable morbidity and early mortality. Whether prediabetes is causally related to diabetes complications is unclear. Here we report a causal inference analysis investigating the effects of prediabetes in coronary artery disease, stroke and chronic kidney disease, complemented by a systematic review of relevant observational studies. Although the observational studies suggest that prediabetes is broadly associated with diabetes complications, the causal inference analysis revealed that prediabetes is only causally related with coronary artery disease, with no evidence of causal effects on other diabetes complications. In conclusion, prediabetes likely causes coronary artery disease and its prevention is likely to be most effective if initiated prior to the onset of diabetes.

Objective: While existing evidence supports beneficial cardiovascular effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), emerging studies suggest that glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP) and/or signaling via the GIP receptor may have untoward cardiovascular effects. Indeed, recent studies show that fasting physiological GIP levels are associated with total mortality and cardiovascular mortality, and it was suggested that GIP plays a role in pathogenesis of coronary artery disease.. We investigated the associations between fasting and post-challenge GIP and GLP-1 concentrations and subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by intima-media thickness in the common carotid artery (IMTmeanCCA), and intima-media thickness in the carotid bifurcation (IMTmaxBulb). Research design and methods: Participants at re-examination within the Malmö Diet and Cancer cardiovascular cohort study (n=3734, mean age 72.5 years; 59.3% women; 10.8% subjects with diabetes; fasting GIP available for 3342 subjects; fasting GLP-1 available for 3299 subjects) underwent oral glucose tolerance testing and carotid ultrasound. Results: In linear regression analyses, each 1 SD increment of fasting GIP was associated with increased (per mm) IMTmeanCCA (β=0.010, p=0.010) and IMTmaxBulb (β=0.014; p=0.040) in models adjusted for known risk factors and glucose metabolism. In contrast, each 1 SD increment of fasting GLP-1 was associated with decreased IMTmaxBulb (per mm; β=-0.016, p=0.014). These associations remained significant when subjects with diabetes were excluded from analyses. Conclusion In a Swedish elderly population, physiologically elevated levels of fasting GIP are associated with increased IMTmeanCCA, while GLP-1 is associated with decreased IMTmaxBulb, further emphasizing diverging cardiovascular effects of these two incretin hormones.

It is well established that physical activity, abdominal ectopic fat and glycaemic regulation are related but the underlying structure of these relationships is unclear. The previously proposed twin-cycle hypothesis (TC) provides a mechanistic basis for impairment in glycaemic control through the interactions of substrate availability, substrate metabolism and abdominal ectopic fat accumulation. Here, we hypothesise that the effect of physical activity in glucose regulation is mediated by the twin-cycle. We aimed to examine this notion in the Innovative Medicines Initiative Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (IMI DIRECT) Consortium cohorts comprised of participants with normal or impaired glucose regulation (cohort 1: N ≤ 920) or with recently diagnosed type 2 diabetes (cohort 2: N ≤ 435).We defined a structural equation model that describes the TC and fitted this within the IMI DIRECT dataset. A second model, twin-cycle plus physical activity (TC-PA), to assess the extent to which the effects of physical activity in glycaemic regulation are mediated by components in the twin-cycle, was also fitted. Beta cell function, insulin sensitivity and glycaemic control were modelled from frequently sampled 75 g OGTTs (fsOGTTs) and mixed-meal tolerance tests (MMTTs) in participants without and with diabetes, respectively. Abdominal fat distribution was assessed using MRI, and physical activity through wrist-worn triaxial accelerometry. Results are presented as standardised beta coefficients, SE and p values, respectively.The TC and TC-PA models showed better fit than null models (TC: χThese analyses partially support the mechanisms proposed in the twin-cycle model and highlight mechanistic pathways through which insulin sensitivity and liver fat mediate the association between physical activity and glycaemic control.

Prediabetes is a state of glycaemic dysregulation below the diagnostic threshold of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Globally, ~352 million people have prediabetes, of which 35–50% develop full-blown diabetes within five years. T2D and its complications are costly to treat, causing considerable morbidity and early mortality. Whether prediabetes is causally related to diabetes complications is unclear. Here we report a causal inference analysis investigating the effects of prediabetes in coronary artery disease, stroke and chronic kidney disease, complemented by a systematic review of relevant observational studies. Although the observational studies suggest that prediabetes is broadly associated with diabetes complications, the causal inference analysis revealed that prediabetes is only causally related with coronary artery disease, with no evidence of causal effects on other diabetes complications. In conclusion, prediabetes likely causes coronary artery disease and its prevention is likely to be most effective if initiated prior to the onset of diabetes., Prediabetes has been associated with diabetes complications, but these relationships may be confounded. Here the authors show, using genetic data in causal inference analyses, that prediabetes raises risk of coronary heart disease, but not other diabetes complications.

Background Genome‐wide association studies have identified >1000 genetic variants cross‐sectionally associated with blood pressure variation and prevalent hypertension. These discoveries might aid the early identification of subpopulations at risk of developing hypertension or provide targets for drug development, amongst other applications. The aim of the present study was to analyze the association of blood pressure‐associated variants with long‐term changes (10 years) in blood pressure and also to assess their ability to predict hypertension incidence compared with traditional risk variables in a Swedish population. Methods and Results We constructed 6 genetic risk scores (GRSs) by summing the dosage of the effect allele at each locus of genetic variants previously associated with blood pressure traits (systolic blood pressure GRS (GRS SBP ): 554 variants; diastolic blood pressure GRS (GRS DBP ): 481 variants; mean arterial pressure GRS (GRS MAP ): 20 variants; pulse pressure GRS (GRS PP ): 478 variants; hypertension GRS (GRS HTN ): 22 variants; combined GRS (GRS com b ): 1152 variants). Each GRS was longitudinally associated with its corresponding blood pressure trait, with estimated effects per GRS SD unit of 0.50 to 1.21 mm Hg for quantitative traits and odds ratios (ORs) of 1.10 to 1.35 for hypertension incidence traits. The GRS comb was also significantly associated with hypertension incidence defined according to European guidelines (OR, 1.22 per SD; 95% CI, 1.10‒1.35) but not US guidelines (OR, 1.11 per SD; 95% CI, 0.99‒1.25) while controlling for traditional risk factors. The addition of GRS comb to a model containing traditional risk factors only marginally improved discrimination (Δarea under the ROC curve = 0.001–0.002). Conclusions GRSs based on discovered blood pressure‐associated variants are associated with long‐term changes in blood pressure traits and hypertension incidence, but the inclusion of genetic factors in a model composed of conventional hypertension risk factors did not yield a material increase in predictive ability.

BackgroundNon-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is highly prevalent and causes serious health complications in type 2 diabetes (T2D) and beyond. Early diagnosis of NAFLD is important, as this can help prevent irreversible damage to the liver and ultimately hepatocellular carcinomas.Methods and FindingsUtilizing the baseline data from the IMI DIRECT participants (n=1514) we sought to expand etiological understanding and develop a diagnostic tool for NAFLD using machine learning. Multi-omic (genetic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic) and clinical (liver enzymes and other serological biomarkers, anthropometry, and measures of beta-cell function, insulin sensitivity, and lifestyle) data comprised the key input variables. The models were trained on MRI image-derived liver fat content (ConclusionsWe have developed clinically useful liver fat prediction models (see:www.predictliverfat.org) and identified biological features that appear to affect liver fat accumulation.

Aims/hypothesis Evidence that glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP) and/or the GIP receptor (GIPR) are involved in cardiovascular biology is emerging. We hypothesised that GIP has untoward effects on cardiovascular biology, in contrast to glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1), and therefore investigated the effects of GIP and GLP-1 concentrations on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality risk. Methods GIP concentrations were successfully measured during OGTTs in two independent populations (Malmö Diet Cancer–Cardiovascular Cohort [MDC-CC] and Prevalence, Prediction and Prevention of Diabetes in Botnia [PPP-Botnia]) in a total of 8044 subjects. GLP-1 (n = 3625) was measured in MDC-CC. The incidence of CVD and mortality was assessed via national/regional registers or questionnaires. Further, a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (2SMR) analysis between the GIP pathway and outcomes (coronary artery disease [CAD] and myocardial infarction) was carried out using a GIP-associated genetic variant, rs1800437, as instrumental variable. An additional reverse 2SMR was performed with CAD as exposure variable and GIP as outcome variable, with the instrumental variables constructed from 114 known genetic risk variants for CAD. Results In meta-analyses, higher fasting levels of GIP were associated with risk of higher total mortality (HR[95% CI] = 1.22 [1.11, 1.35]; p = 4.5 × 10−5) and death from CVD (HR[95% CI] 1.30 [1.11, 1.52]; p = 0.001). In accordance, 2SMR analysis revealed that increasing GIP concentrations were associated with CAD and myocardial infarction, and an additional reverse 2SMR revealed no significant effect of CAD on GIP levels, thus confirming a possible effect solely of GIP on CAD. Conclusions/interpretation In two prospective, community-based studies, elevated levels of GIP were associated with greater risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality within 5–9 years of follow-up, whereas GLP-1 levels were not associated with excess risk. Further studies are warranted to determine the cardiovascular effects of GIP per se.

OBJECTIVE While existing evidence supports beneficial cardiovascular effects of glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1), emerging studies suggest that glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP) and/or signaling via the GIP receptor may have untoward cardiovascular effects. Indeed, recent studies show that fasting physiological GIP levels are associated with total mortality and cardiovascular mortality, and it was suggested that GIP plays a role in pathogenesis of coronary artery disease. We investigated the associations between fasting and postchallenge GIP and GLP-1 concentrations and subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by mean intima-media thickness in the common carotid artery (IMTmeanCCA) and maximal intima-media thickness in the carotid bifurcation (IMTmaxBulb). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Participants at reexamination within the Malmö Diet and Cancer–Cardiovascular Cohort study (n = 3,734, mean age 72.5 years, 59.3% women, 10.8% subjects with diabetes, fasting GIP available for 3,342 subjects, fasting GLP-1 available for 3,299 subjects) underwent oral glucose tolerance testing and carotid ultrasound. RESULTS In linear regression analyses, each 1-SD increment of fasting GIP was associated with increased (per mm) IMTmeanCCA (β = 0.010, P = 0.010) and IMTmaxBulb (β = 0.014; P = 0.040) in models adjusted for known risk factors and glucose metabolism. In contrast, each 1-SD increment of fasting GLP-1 was associated with decreased IMTmaxBulb (per mm, β = −0.016, P = 0.014). These associations remained significant when subjects with diabetes were excluded from analyses. CONCLUSIONS In a Swedish elderly population, physiologically elevated levels of fasting GIP are associated with increased IMTmeanCCA, while GLP-1 is associated with decreased IMTmaxBulb, further emphasizing diverging cardiovascular effects of these two incretin hormones.

Recent genetic studies have identified alleles associated with opposite effects on adiposity and risk of type 2 diabetes. We aimed to identify more of these variants and test the hypothesis that such “favourable adiposity” alleles are associated with higher subcutaneous fat and lower ectopic fat. We combined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of body fat % and metabolic traits. We report 14 alleles, including 7 newly characterized alleles, associated with higher adiposity, but a favourable metabolic profile. Consistent with previous studies, individuals carrying more “favourable adiposity” alleles had higher body fat % and higher BMI, but lower risk of type 2 diabetes, heart disease and hypertension. These individuals also had higher subcutaneous fat, but lower liver fat and lower visceral-to-subcutaneous adipose tissue ratio. Individual alleles associated with higher body fat % but lower liver fat and lower risk of type 2 diabetes included those in PPARG, GRB14 and IRS1, whilst the allele in ANKRD55 was paradoxically associated with higher visceral fat but lower risk of type 2 diabetes. Most identified “favourable adiposity” alleles are associated with higher subcutaneous and lower liver fat, a mechanism consistent with the beneficial effects of storing excess triglyceride in metabolically low risk depots. Diabetes UK RD Lawrence fellowship, European Research Council, Wellcome Trust and Royal Society grant, European Regional Development Fund, Medical Research Council, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, German Research Foundation, Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking, European Union's Seventh Framework Programme, Dutch Science Organisation, Scottish Government Health Directorates, Scottish Funding Council and Medical Research Council UK and the Wellcome Trust.

Obesity is a risk factor for a plethora of severe morbidities and premature death. Most supporting evidence comes from observational studies that are prone to chance, bias and confounding. Even data on the protective effects of weight loss from randomized controlled trials will be susceptible to confounding and bias if treatment assignment cannot be masked, which is usually the case with lifestyle and surgical interventions. Thus, whilst obesity is widely considered the major modifiable risk factor for many chronic diseases, its causes and consequences are often difficult to determine. Addressing this is important, as the prevention and treatment of any disease requires that interventions focus on causal risk factors. Disease prediction, although not dependent on knowing the causes, is nevertheless enhanced by such knowledge. Here, we provide an overview of some of the barriers to causal inference in obesity research and discuss analytical approaches, such as Mendelian randomization, that can help to overcome these obstacles. In a systematic review of the literature in this field, we found: (i) probable causal relationships between adiposity and bone health/disease, cancers (colorectal, lung and kidney cancers), cardiometabolic traits (blood pressure, fasting insulin, inflammatory markers and lipids), uric acid concentrations, coronary heart disease and venous thrombosis (in the presence of pulmonary embolism), (ii) possible causal relationships between adiposity and gray matter volume, depression and common mental disorders, oesophageal cancer, macroalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease, diabetic kidney disease, nuclear cataract and gall stone disease, and (iii) no evidence for causal relationships between adiposity and Alzheimer's disease, pancreatic cancer, venous thrombosis (in the absence of pulmonary embolism), liver function and periodontitis.

Randomized controlled trials (RCT) are often underpowered for validating gene-treatment interactions. Using published data from the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), we examined power in conventional and genotype-based recall (GBR) trials. We calculated sample size and statistical power for gene-metformin interactions (vs. placebo) using incidence rates, gene-drug interaction effect estimates and allele frequencies reported in the DPP for the rs8065082 SLC47A1 variant, a metformin transported encoding locus. We then calculated statistical power for interactions between genetic risk scores (GRS), metformin treatment and intensive lifestyle intervention (ILI) given a range of sampling frames, clinical trial sample sizes, interaction effect estimates, and allele frequencies; outcomes were type 2 diabetes incidence (time-to-event) and change in small LDL particles (continuous outcome). Thereafter, we compared two recruitment frameworks: GBR (participants recruited from the extremes of a GRS distribution) and conventional sampling (participants recruited without explicit emphasis on genetic characteristics). We further examined the influence of outcome measurement error on statistical power. Under most simulated scenarios, GBR trials have substantially higher power to observe gene-drug and gene-lifestyle interactions than same-sized conventional RCTs. GBR trials are becoming popular for validation of gene-treatment interactions; our analyses illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of this design.