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3. Failing to deter Russia's war against Ukraine: the role of misperceptions

Author

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, Minzarari, Dumitru, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, and Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

Despite what looked like tremendous efforts by the West to deter Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the Kremlin started a full-scale military invasion across the Ukrainian border from the north, east, and south. Clarifying why these deterrence efforts did not work as expected could provide useful insights for building more effective strat­egies to stop Russia's aggression. It would also allow for adjusting future policies of deterrence against Russia. The EU and NATO should consider their misperceptions about Russia that undermined their ability to politically and militarily discourage Rus­sia's aggression. They also should consider what actions have fuelled Russia's mis­perceptions about the West and emboldened the Kremlin to launch its military invasion of Ukraine. (author's abstract)

Published
2022

4. Justice reform as the battleground for genuine democratic transformation in Moldova: insights for the Eastern Partnership

Author

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, Minzarari, Dumitru, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, and Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The euphoria felt by both domestic and foreign liberal audiences following the vic­tory of a pro-reform party in Moldova is now receding. The new Moldovan leadership has stumbled in fulfilling its main electoral promise, namely to fight corruption by effectively reforming the justice system. There is a growing realisation that justice reform initiated and conducted with Western support over the last decade, and based on the implementation of existing best practices, might not be the most effec­tive approach considering Moldova's conditions. With corrupt courts and a public pros­ecutor office that is still connected to former kleptocrats, Moldova is a model weak state. A more suitable approach to justice reform would be to first establish pre­requisites that would lead to the impartiality of the legal system before granting it politi­cal independence. This may also prove a more suitable model of justice reform for other Eastern Partnership countries undermined by strongmen and tycoons. (author's abstract)

Published
2022

5. Justice reform as the battleground for genuine democratic transformation in Moldova: insights for the Eastern Partnership

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

Subjects
Recht, Justiz, ddc:340, Moldau, Innenpolitische Lage/Entwicklung, Politische Reformen, Justiz/Judikative Gewalt, Justizreform, Korruptionsbekämpfung, Rechtsstaatlichkeit/Rechtsstaat, Entwicklungsperspektive und -tendenz, Sandu‏, Maia, Reformpolitik, Ernennung, Umbesetzung oder Entlassung von Personen, Richter, Korruption, Wahl/Abstimmung, Parlament, Politische Partei, Parteiprogramm, Kleptokratie, Korruptionswahrnehmung, ddc:320, Judiciary, Law
Abstract

The euphoria felt by both domestic and foreign liberal audiences following the vic­tory of a pro-reform party in Moldova is now receding. The new Moldovan leadership has stumbled in fulfilling its main electoral promise, namely to fight corruption by effectively reforming the justice system. There is a growing realisation that justice reform initiated and conducted with Western support over the last decade, and based on the implementation of existing best practices, might not be the most effec­tive approach considering Moldova's conditions. With corrupt courts and a public pros­ecutor office that is still connected to former kleptocrats, Moldova is a model weak state. A more suitable approach to justice reform would be to first establish pre­requisites that would lead to the impartiality of the legal system before granting it politi­cal independence. This may also prove a more suitable model of justice reform for other Eastern Partnership countries undermined by strongmen and tycoons. (author's abstract)

Published
2022

6. Failing to deter Russia's war against Ukraine

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

Subjects
NATO, deterrence, Politikwissenschaft, Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, Sicherheitspolitik, Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy, conflict management, Abschreckung, Russia, foreign policy, Konfliktregelung, ddc:320, Russland, Außenpolitik, war, Ukraine, EU, Political science, Bilateraler internationaler Konflikt, Aggression (militärisch), Russisch-Ukrainischer Krieg, Kriegsverhütung, Abschreckungsstrategie, Fehleinschätzung/Fehlperzeption, Kriegsverlauf, Internationale Konfliktverhandlungen, Krieg
Abstract

Despite what looked like tremendous efforts by the West to deter Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the Kremlin started a full-scale military invasion across the Ukrainian border from the north, east, and south. Clarifying why these deterrence efforts did not work as expected could provide useful insights for building more effective strat­egies to stop Russia's aggression. It would also allow for adjusting future policies of deterrence against Russia. The EU and NATO should consider their misperceptions about Russia that undermined their ability to politically and militarily discourage Rus­sia's aggression. They also should consider what actions have fuelled Russia's mis­perceptions about the West and emboldened the Kremlin to launch its military invasion of Ukraine. (author's abstract)

Published
2022
Full Text
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7. Making sense of the contested Biden-Putin summit: Russia instrumentalises strategic stability risks to influence US behaviour

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru, Stiftung Wissenschaft Und Politik, and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

Subjects
bilaterale Beziehungen, Gipfelkonferenz/Gipfeltreffen, Staatsoberhaupt, Biden, Joseph R, Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovič, Ergebnis/Bilanz, Verteidigungs- und sicherheitsbezogene Beziehungen, Informationssicherheit, international relations, United States of America, Internationale Beziehungen, International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy, Sicherheitspolitik, Russia, security policy, Interessenpolitik, ddc:320, Russland, bilateral relations, internationale Beziehungen, Entwicklungspolitik, pressure-group politics, USA, ddc:327
Abstract

The Biden-Putin summit in June 2021 has brought more questions than answers. It was a highly debated move - particularly in the United States - ever since the possi­bility of the event was announced in April. The outcomes of the high-profile bilateral meeting are still elusive. Despite these, the summit offered a few valuable insights on United States-Russia bilateral relations as well as on how the two countries seem to per­ceive each other. Among them, Russia views strategic stability to be of key im­portance for its ability to influence world affairs. The biggest concerns of the United States include cybersecurity and reducing Russia’s disruptive behaviour, which in­stru­mentalises instability in conflicts around the world. The revelations following the summit serve as useful signals but offer few reasons for optimism with regard to the United States and Russia engaging on a solid common agenda, and more likely for them to continue pursuing opposing interests. (author's abstract)

Published
2021

8. Die Logik von Verteidigungshilfe für die Ukraine: Eine strategische Einschätzung

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru, Stewart, Susan, Stiftung Wissenschaft Und Politik, and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

Subjects
Politikwissenschaft, Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, Sicherheitspolitik, Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy, conflict management, Federal Republic of Germany, geopolitics, Internationale Beziehungen, Sicherheitspolitik, Russia, Geopolitik, security policy, bilateral relations, defense industry, Außenpolitik, defense policy, Political science, bilaterale Beziehungen, Verteidigungspolitik, decision-making process, military aid, international relations, internationaler Konflikt, International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy, Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Militärhilfe, foreign policy, Konfliktregelung, Willensbildung, Rüstungsindustrie, ddc:320, Bemühungen um Konfliktbeilegung, Ostukraine, innerstaatliche Willensbildung zur Außenpolitik, bilateraler internationaler Konflikt, Vermittlungsfunktion / Schlichtungsfunktion internationaler Akteure, Waffenverkäufe / Waffenlieferungen, Russland, international conflict, internationale Beziehungen, Entwicklungspolitik, Ukraine, EU, ddc:327
Abstract

Die jüngste Debatte über eine mögliche Verteidigungshilfe Deutschlands für die Ukraine ist von Relevanz, was die Bemühungen angeht, den gegenwärtigen Stillstand im Minsker Prozess wie im Normandie-Format zu überwinden und einer Lösung im Konflikt um den Donbas näherzukommen. Sie betrifft aber auch weitergehende Fra­gen zur Rolle der Bundesrepublik in Europa und ganz allgemein in der internationalen Sicherheitspolitik. Dabei geht es um die Fähigkeit Deutschlands, sich auf Situa­tio­nen einzustellen, in denen andere Länder bereit sind, Konflikte militärisch zu lösen. In diesem Sinne passt die Diskussion auch zu den Überlegungen für eine stär­ker geo­politisch ausgerichtete EU. Der Bundesregierung bietet sich hier ein Weg, der gewalt­samen Veränderung bestehender Grenzen aktiver entgegenzutreten und so ihrem Engagement für die Sicherheit und Stabilität Europas mehr Nachdruck zu verleihen. (Autorenreferat)

Published
2021

9. The Russian military escalation around Ukraine's Donbas: risks and scenarios for a revised EU policy

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru, Stiftung Wissenschaft Und Politik, and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

Subjects
Eskalation, escalation, separatism, Politikwissenschaft, Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, Sicherheitspolitik, Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy, military conflict, Bilateraler internationaler Konflikt, Ostukraine, Donec'kij kam'janovugil'nij basejn, Dislozierung militärischer Verbände, Militärische Manöver, Machtprojektion, Internationale Reaktion, Regionale Sicherheitspolitik von Staatengruppen, Verhalten in Krisenzeiten, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Verteidigungs- und sicherheitsbezogene Beziehungen, Organisation für Sicherheit und Zusammenarbeit in Europa, Beobachter- und Erkundungsmission, Sicherheitspolitik, militärischer Konflikt, Separatismus, Russia, security policy, ddc:320, Russland, Ukraine, EU, Political science
Abstract

The ongoing military and political escalations in and around Donbas - including the increase in Russian military deployments near Ukraine's borders - represent one of the most severe security crises in Europe since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014. The patterns of Russian military deployments, the structure of forces, and the types of observed military hardware strongly suggest the risk of an offensive operation rather than an exercise. Given the existing political costs, that operation is likely to take indirect forms by using the cover of Russian military proxies in Donbas. This crisis represents both a major challenge and an opportunity for the European Union (EU) to conduct practical work on developing its strategic autonomy and offer leader­ship in strengthening the security in its immediate neighbourhood. What should the EU do in practical terms to discourage further military escalation around Donbas, or at least increase the costs for such a development? (author's abstract)

Published
2021

10. The logic of defence assistance to Ukraine

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru, Stewart, Susan, Stiftung Wissenschaft Und Politik, and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

Subjects
Politikwissenschaft, Friedens- und Konfliktforschung, Sicherheitspolitik, Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy, conflict management, Federal Republic of Germany, geopolitics, Internationale Beziehungen, Sicherheitspolitik, Russia, Geopolitik, security policy, bilateral relations, defense industry, Außenpolitik, defense policy, Political science, bilaterale Beziehungen, Verteidigungspolitik, military aid, international relations, Bemühungen um Konfliktbeilegung, Ostukraine, Innerstaatliche Willensbildung zur Außenpolitik, Vermittlungsfunktion/Schlichtungsfunktion internationaler Akteure, internationaler Konflikt, International Relations, International Politics, Foreign Affairs, Development Policy, Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Militärhilfe, foreign policy, Konfliktregelung, Rüstungsindustrie, ddc:320, Russland, international conflict, internationale Beziehungen, Entwicklungspolitik, Ukraine, EU, ddc:327
Abstract

The recent debate about providing military assistance to Ukraine has relevance for the efforts to overcome the current impasse in the Minsk Process and the Normandy Format in particular, and thus the search for a resolution to the conflict regarding the Donbas. But it also concerns larger questions of Germany's role in Europe, and in security policy more generally. It touches on Germany's ability to adapt to situations in which other countries are willing to envisage military solutions to existing con­flicts. In this sense, it fits into discussions about a more geopolitical EU. And it offers Berlin a way to reinforce its commitment to European security and stability by more actively resisting the redrawing of international borders. (author's abstract)

Published
2021
Full Text
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11. Making sense of the contested Biden-Putin summit: Russia instrumentalises strategic stability risks to influence US behaviour

Author

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, Minzarari, Dumitru, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, and Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The Biden-Putin summit in June 2021 has brought more questions than answers. It was a highly debated move - particularly in the United States - ever since the possi­bility of the event was announced in April. The outcomes of the high-profile bilateral meeting are still elusive. Despite these, the summit offered a few valuable insights on United States-Russia bilateral relations as well as on how the two countries seem to per­ceive each other. Among them, Russia views strategic stability to be of key im­portance for its ability to influence world affairs. The biggest concerns of the United States include cybersecurity and reducing Russia’s disruptive behaviour, which in­stru­mentalises instability in conflicts around the world. The revelations following the summit serve as useful signals but offer few reasons for optimism with regard to the United States and Russia engaging on a solid common agenda, and more likely for them to continue pursuing opposing interests. (author's abstract)

Published
2021

12. The logic of defence assistance to Ukraine: a strategic assessment

Author

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, Minzarari, Dumitru, Stewart, Susan, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, Minzarari, Dumitru, and Stewart, Susan

Abstract

The recent debate about providing military assistance to Ukraine has relevance for the efforts to overcome the current impasse in the Minsk Process and the Normandy Format in particular, and thus the search for a resolution to the conflict regarding the Donbas. But it also concerns larger questions of Germany's role in Europe, and in security policy more generally. It touches on Germany's ability to adapt to situations in which other countries are willing to envisage military solutions to existing con­flicts. In this sense, it fits into discussions about a more geopolitical EU. And it offers Berlin a way to reinforce its commitment to European security and stability by more actively resisting the redrawing of international borders. (author's abstract)

Published
2021

13. Die Logik von Verteidigungshilfe für die Ukraine: eine strategische Einschätzung

Author

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, Minzarari, Dumitru, Stewart, Susan, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, Minzarari, Dumitru, and Stewart, Susan

Abstract

Die jüngste Debatte über eine mögliche Verteidigungshilfe Deutschlands für die Ukraine ist von Relevanz, was die Bemühungen angeht, den gegenwärtigen Stillstand im Minsker Prozess wie im Normandie-Format zu überwinden und einer Lösung im Konflikt um den Donbas näherzukommen. Sie betrifft aber auch weitergehende Fra­gen zur Rolle der Bundesrepublik in Europa und ganz allgemein in der internationalen Sicherheitspolitik. Dabei geht es um die Fähigkeit Deutschlands, sich auf Situa­tio­nen einzustellen, in denen andere Länder bereit sind, Konflikte militärisch zu lösen. In diesem Sinne passt die Diskussion auch zu den Überlegungen für eine stär­ker geo­politisch ausgerichtete EU. Der Bundesregierung bietet sich hier ein Weg, der gewalt­samen Veränderung bestehender Grenzen aktiver entgegenzutreten und so ihrem Engagement für die Sicherheit und Stabilität Europas mehr Nachdruck zu verleihen. (Autorenreferat)

Published
2021

14. The Russian military escalation around Ukraine's Donbas: risks and scenarios for a revised EU policy

Author

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, Minzarari, Dumitru, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, and Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The ongoing military and political escalations in and around Donbas - including the increase in Russian military deployments near Ukraine's borders - represent one of the most severe security crises in Europe since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014. The patterns of Russian military deployments, the structure of forces, and the types of observed military hardware strongly suggest the risk of an offensive operation rather than an exercise. Given the existing political costs, that operation is likely to take indirect forms by using the cover of Russian military proxies in Donbas. This crisis represents both a major challenge and an opportunity for the European Union (EU) to conduct practical work on developing its strategic autonomy and offer leader­ship in strengthening the security in its immediate neighbourhood. What should the EU do in practical terms to discourage further military escalation around Donbas, or at least increase the costs for such a development? (author's abstract)

Published
2021

15. Moldovan presidential elections driven by insecurity not geopolitics: resident-elect Sandu may have found a cure against populism

Author

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, Minzarari, Dumitru, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit, and Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

World media have hailed the victory of Maia Sandu in the Moldovan presidential elec­tions on 15 November. They celebrated it as a triumph of democracy and pro-Western preferences over post-Soviet cronyism, authoritarianism and Russian apologists. The reality is more complex while there are few reasons for optimism. Sandu's victory is a fragile one as the conditions that delivered it were temporary only. However, she may have unwittingly discovered how to attract voters who traditionally preferred Russia-backed candidates. The EU would benefit by learning from this accidental solution, which is of value regionwide, and deriving from it a thought-out strategy to more effectively support and protect genuine democratic transformation in Moldova and the post-Soviet area. (author's abstract)

Published
2021

16. Moldovan presidential elections driven by insecurity not geopolitics: President-elect Sandu may have found a cure against populism

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru, Stiftung Wissenschaft Und Politik, and Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit

Subjects
Politikwissenschaft, political influence, Wahlanalyse, Sandu‏, Maia, Dodon, Igor, Haltung von Akteuren zu Einzelfragen, Regionale Außenpolitik von Staatengruppen, Präsidentschaftswahl, diaspora, change of government, Republik Moldau, Russia, Wahlergebnis, Wahlverhalten, Political Process, Elections, Political Sociology, Political Culture, Political science, Machtwechsel, politische Willensbildung, politische Soziologie, politische Kultur, election result, Demokratisierung, voting behavior, politischer Einfluss, Moldova, democratization, Regierungswechsel, presidential election, ddc:320, Russland, EU, change in power
Abstract

World media have hailed the victory of Maia Sandu in the Moldovan presidential elec­tions on 15 November. They celebrated it as a triumph of democracy and pro-Western preferences over post-Soviet cronyism, authoritarianism and Russian apologists. The reality is more complex while there are few reasons for optimism. Sandu's victory is a fragile one as the conditions that delivered it were temporary only. However, she may have unwittingly discovered how to attract voters who traditionally preferred Russia-backed candidates. The EU would benefit by learning from this accidental solution, which is of value regionwide, and deriving from it a thought-out strategy to more effectively support and protect genuine democratic transformation in Moldova and the post-Soviet area. (author's abstract)

Published
2020

18. Population-Centric: Lessons from Russia's Hybrid War in Moldova.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Subjects
*WAR, *PUBLIC demonstrations
Abstract

Keywords: hybrid war; protests; Russia; Shor Party EN hybrid war protests Russia Shor Party N.PAG N.PAG 1 05/16/23 20230515 NES 230515 I Russian political proxies are weaponizing protests in Moldova, escalating Russia's hybrid war in the country. During recent months, Russia has mobilized its political proxies in Moldova to protest against the government, and to pay people to join their rallies. These proxies provide Russia with political legitimacy in Moldova, local planning and organization, and easy access to Moldova's state institutions. [Extracted from the article]

Published
2023

19. East or West.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Subjects
MOLDOVAN politics & government, RUSSIAN foreign relations, 1991-, FOREIGN relations of the European Union, ELECTIONS, POLITICAL stability, TWENTY-first century, INTERNATIONAL relations
Abstract

The article discusses three scenarios in Moldova, and its external relations with Russia and the European Union, after its November 2014 parliamentary elections. Topics covered include the emergence of radical left- and right-wing organisations, with unrest likely in the Gagauzia region and the capital Chisinau, and the projected instability in the country. Also mentioned is the ability of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldavia (PCRM) to direct Moldovia's form of government.

Published
2014

20. Crimea Crisis Exposes Severe Deficiencies in Transnistria Negotiations Format.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article focuses on severe deficiencies in Transnistria negotiations format exposed by Crimea crisis. Crimea's takeover by Russia shows unfolding situation in Transnistria which includes a casus belli that justified Moscow's intervention into Crimea and Russia needed a loyal presence in the territory that invites its "humanitarian" assistance.

Published
2014

21. Russia's Aggressive Policies in Transnistria Reveal Severe Limitations of EU's Approach to Conflict Resolution.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article focuses on the plan of the Russian government to establish a Eurasian economic region in Transnistria as part of conflict resolution. It says that the project is intended to reflect the trans-border collaboration project Euroregions by the European Union (EU). It mentions that the initiative aims to strengthen cross-border collaboration and develop transportation links, infrastructure, and environmental protection between neighboring countries.

Published
2012

22. Moldovan Armed Forces Train for Hybrid Warfare the Wrong Way.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article reports on the criticisms regarding the Moldovan Ministry of Interior's field military exercise for its special forces brigade called Fulger in October 2014. Some of the negative comments include the failure to conduct the exercise at the brigade's remote training ranges and the lack of practice on taking control of public buildings captured by militants or rebels. Also mentioned is the separatist conflict in Ukraine and the lessons that the Moldovan government should learn from it.

Published
2014

23. Lukashenka's Moldova Visit Raises Hopes for Temporary Solution to Russia's Agricultural Ban.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article discusses the ban imposed by the Russian Federation on Moldovan agricultural products after the trade embargo initiated by the European Union against Russia. Moldova Prime Minister Iurie Leanca is hopeful that the official visit of Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka would improve their bilateral trade and facilitate re-exportation of goods to Russia. Russian economic minister Alexei Ulyukaev is said to acknowledge the impact of European sanctions on food prices.

Published
2014

24. Romania Pushes NATO on Securing Black Sea Area in Response to Russia's Militarization of Crimea.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article focuses on the efforts of the Romanian government to urge the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to secure the Black Sea area in response to Russia's militarization of Crimea. Topics mentioned include comments from Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu regarding the military and political situation in the region, an overview of Russia's plans to reactivate a submarine base in Crimea, and the need to create contingency plans to defend NATO's southeastern flank.

Published
2014

25. Ukraine Taking Drastic Measures to Diminish the Risk of an 'Odessa People's Republic'.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article reports on instances of reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) from Transnistria violating Ukrainian air space. The fighting in Ukraine's eastern region of Donbas between Ukrainian forces and Russian separatists is causing growing carnage. UAVs fly over the administrative border area between Ukraine's regions of Odessa and Vinnitsya.

Published
2014

26. Russia Likely to Review Its Strategy Toward Moldova.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article reports that Russia is to Review its policy toward Moldova. Russia intended to cease importing Moldovan fruit and berries from July 21, 2014 after which it prohibited Moldovan canned vegetables to enter the Russian market. Russia reframing Moldova's case from a foreign policy issue into domestic politics issue.

Published
2014

27. Moldova Sending Confusing Signals Amid Open Russian Threats.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article presents the message of Moldovan Prime Minister Iurie Leanca on the relations of Moldova and Russia. On May 14, 2014, he spoke at a talk show on the strained diplomatic relations of both countries due to the visit of Russian delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin in Transnitria on May 9, 2014. Their luggage are searched and confiscated Transnitrian support signatures to petition Russian President Vladimir Putin to allow the annexation of Transnistria.

Published
2014

28. The Gagauz Referendum in Moldova: A Russian Political Weapon?

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article reports on the illegal referendum held by the autonomouse Gagauz region in Moldova on foreign policy. The plebiscite which asked locals to express their preference between closer ties or further European integration with Russia is mentioned. The membership chosen by the Gagauzian voters in the Customs Union over Moldova's entry in the European Union (EU) is cited.

Published
2014

29. Ukraine: Survival of the Steadiest.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article discusses the impact of the decision of Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych to suspend its Association Agreement with the European Union (EU) in November 2013 on its relations with Russia and the EU. The daunting pressure of the Russian economic sanctions has been considered as the reason behind the dramatic foreign policy turn-around of Ukraine. The imitation of the government of Ukraine with the strategies the Russian government developed for dealing with protests is also tackled.

Published
2014

30. EU-Moldova Association Agreement May Yield Huge Political Windfall for Filat's Party.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article reports on the sustainability of the agreement made by the Vlad Filat government in Moldova which patches Moldovan liberals, liberal-democrats, and democrats in an attempt to prevent snap elections. The insecurity of Filat's party for the parliamentary elections in 2014 and the trend of the diminishing popularity of liberals and democrats are discussed. The political issue of European integration (EU) and Filat's finalization on the EU-Moldova Association Agreement is highlighted.

Published
2013

31. Moldovan Politics Begin to Resemble Post-Orange Revolution Ukraine.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article reports on the plausible risk of snap elections faced by Moldova. The decline of the liberal democratic party led by Prime Minister Vlad Filat as the most trusted party in the country is discussed. The failure of Ukraine's Orange Revolution and the need for Moldova for Western allies to incentivize the Alliance for European Integra (AIE) members are stated.

Published
2013

32. New Year with Old Burden: Political Limbo and Unclear Purpose to Haunt Moldova in 2013.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article offers information on the Moldova's political stand on Alliance for European Integration (AIE). it mentions that in the 2012 political leaders was falling victim to their strategic misunderstanding of Russian foreign policy but later they took advantages of the political sympathy of European Union and the U.S. It reports that the political union of the political powers on the AIE in the Moldova represents support of it for European integration through institutional reforms.

Published
2013

33. Russia is Building Diplomatic and Military Tools to Prevent Western Resistance to its Eurasian Union.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article discusses the comment by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Russia's Eurasian integration project and the response of Russia. Clinton said that the project is used by Russia to rebuild its control on Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and this curtails the U.S. reach in the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that the accusations by the U.S. were nonsense.

Published
2012

34. Russian Military Developments in Transnistria Worry Moldovan Officials.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article reports that the Russian military development in Transnistria, Moldova has caused worry to its government officials. Russian foreign ministry special envoy Sergei Gubarev states that Moldova would lose its neutral status or sovereignty as the military development increases. It also discusses the on the membership of Moldova on the U.S.-led Global Peace Operations Initiative.

Published
2012

35. Soft Power with an Iron Fist: Putin Administration to Change the Face of Russia's Foreign Policy Toward Its Neighbors.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article reports on the insight of Russia's Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev at the Russian Foreign Ministry on September 3, 2012 regarding the need of the country to consolidate and strengthen its "soft power." It says that the Kremlin is searching to exploit the Western concept of "soft power," which involves the power of attraction and reframing. It also mentions that Russia's effort is willing to explore the decrease in interest, both in the U.S. and the European Union.

Published
2012

36. The Kremlin Politically Fortifies Its Military Presence in Transnistria.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article reports on the political fortification by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin of its military existence in Transnistria. It states that on June 4, he met with Nina Shtansky, foreign minister of Transnistria, in Moscow, Russia. Russian press-release states that Shtansky was Transnistria's political representative on talks for the Transnistrian conflict resolution.

Published
2012

39. Rethinking Military Strategy: The Primacy of Exposure in Combat Attrition

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Subjects
Military strategy and military effectiveness, Impact of combat exposure on war attrition, War dynamics and crisis escalation
Abstract

How do military capabilities transform into victory on the battlefield? By answering this question, we could get useful insights into but also be able to inform the process behind the risky decision to escalate a diplomatic crisis into war. The existing political science literature has viewed the combat conditions that feed this risky decision as static and through the prism of power preponderance. While under certain conditions this assumption is justified, empirical evidence suggests that almost in half of the violent crises it fails to explain conflict outcomes. Moreover, the weakness of power preponderance argument is increasingly accepted by policy experts and practitioners, while trying to replace it through various heuristics. Besides its policy importance, the question has considerable implications for academic research on war. Most of strategic analysis efforts, employing contest success functions to build strategic interaction models explaining war, have preferred to base them on military capabilities. This is problematic, provided that it does not accurately capture the proper data generating process. A field that extensively studied combat dynamics – the military operations research – has preponderantly used, out of convenience, the military capabilities approach, as well. I argue that the algorithm guiding how military capabilities transform into victory is determined by the level of combat exposure of troops, and not firepower. I define exposure as being the degree to which a combat force both intersects the set of lethal fire of the opponent and is known by the opponent to be there. By varying the value of exposure, we can directly control the effect of capabilities and their fire accuracy – at low exposure levels these decrease, being able to achieve zero effect. At high exposure levels the impact of capabilities and firepower can manifest their full lethal capacity. I determine these effects by building a combat dynamics model, through a system of nonlinear dynamic equations, which assesses the degree and speed of troops’ attrition. As an important contribution to this model is the theorizing of exposure role in combat, by exploring the intuition of the Shannon information entropy, in the effort to capture the combat uncertainty. I am able to show that exposure, as a manifestation of combat entropy, is indeed the atomic factor, that has primacy in driving combat attrition. Thus, contrary to largely-hold view that power preponderance is essential for determining combat outcomes, I show it is instead completely dependent on exposure. Moreover, I identify that the number of capabilities only serves as the carrying capacity – the reservoir, from which belligerents draw troops for the fighting engagements. I illustrate the manifestation of exposure both in conventional and insurgency wars, by examining two main respective cases, while also exploring micro-evidence from a wider range of tertiary cases. I show that exposure effect dominates the effect of capabilities in any type of combat, the difference being in the degree. The logic of the model allows to show that some non-material factors such as morale, do not affect war outcomes the way conventional wisdom poses. By revealing the causal relationship between attrition and exposure and emphasizing the role of the speed of attrition in offsetting the supplies received by insurgent from its supporters, I build a better understanding of both insurgency war dynamics and involved actors' incentives.

Published
2019

48. Russia Plays Spoiler in the Most Recent 5+2 Talks.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Abstract

The article reports that Russia plays spoiler in the 5+2 talks on Transnistrian settlement in Vienna, Austria on July 12-13, 2012. It says that days before the meeting, Eugen Carpov, Deputy Prime Minster for Reintegration, insisted that the debates on whether or not Tiraspol and Chisinau, Moldova are co-equal parties are over. It mentions that the administration of Yevgeny Shevchuk pressed charges against Vladimir Antyufeev, who took refuge in Russia.

Published
2012

49. Growing Euro-Skeptics in Moldova.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Subjects
*EMBARGO, *AGRICULTURAL industries, *GROSS domestic product
Abstract

The article presents information on a ban imposed by Russia on agricultural products from Moldova. The ban is in response to a free-trade and political association pact signed by Moldova with the European Union (EU) in June 2014. It is statede that the Russian embargo of Moldovan fruits and vegetables will not have a major impact on Moldovia's economy, but agricultural industry contributes 14 percent to the nation's GDP, and directly employs 28 percent of the Moldovan work force.

Published
2014

50. Uneasy Interregnum.

Author

Minzarari, Dumitru

Subjects
*CIVIL rights demonstrations, *CONTESTED elections, *POLITICAL culture
Abstract

The article reports on the protest of the Moldovans to demand a repeat of the just-finished parliamentary elections and voice their dissatisfaction with the allegedly fraudulent electoral process in Moldova. It relates that repeat of the election is shaping up as a contest between generations of people and a test of the democratic commitment of the European Union. Former OSCE Head of Mission to Moldova Louis O'Neill noted that the country remains a wonderland of political machination.

Published
2009

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