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Abstract This systematic review investigates the efficacy of metabolite biomarkers for risk assessment or early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC) and its precursors, focusing on pre-diagnostic biospecimens. Searches in PubMed, Web of Science, and SCOPUS through December 2023 identified relevant prospective studies. Relevant data were extracted, and the risk of bias was assessed with the QUADAS-2 tool. Among the 26 studies included, significant heterogeneity existed for case numbers, metabolite identification, and validation approaches. Thirteen studies evaluated individual metabolites, mainly lipids, while eleven studies derived metabolite panels, and two studies did both. Nine panels were internally validated, resulting in an area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.69 to 0.95 for CRC precursors and 0.72 to 1.0 for CRC. External validation was limited to one panel (AUC = 0.72). Metabolite panels and lipid-based biomarkers show promise for CRC risk assessment and early detection but require standardization and extensive validation for clinical use.

Abstract While genome-wide association studies are valuable in identifying CRC survival predictors, the benefit of adding blood DNA methylation (blood-DNAm) to clinical features, including the TNM system, remains unclear. In a multi-site population-based patient cohort study of 2116 CRC patients with baseline blood-DNAm, we analyzed survival predictions using eXtreme Gradient Boosting with a 5-fold nested leave-sites-out cross-validation across four groups: traditional and comprehensive clinical features, blood-DNAm, and their combination. Model performance was assessed using time-dependent ROC curves and calibrations. During a median follow-up of 10.3 years, 1166 patients died. Although blood-DNAm-based predictive signatures achieved moderate performances, predictive signatures based on clinical features outperformed blood-DNAm signatures. The inclusion of blood-DNAm did not improve survival prediction over clinical features. M1 stage, age at blood collection, and N2 stage were the top contributors. Despite some prognostic value, incorporating blood DNA methylation did not enhance survival prediction of CRC patients beyond clinical features.

Abstract Background Research on calcium intake as well as variants in the calcium sensor receptor (CaSR) gene and their interaction in relation to CRC survival is still limited. Methods Data from 18,952 CRC patients, were included. Associations between primarily pre-diagnostic dietary (n = 13.085), supplemental (n = 11,837), total calcium intake (n = 5970) as well as 325 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the CaSR gene (n = 15,734) in relation to CRC-specific and all-cause mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. Also interactions between calcium intake and variants in the CaSR gene were assessed. Results During a median follow-up of 4.8 years (IQR 2.4–8.4), 6801 deaths occurred, of which 4194 related to CRC. For all-cause mortality, no associations were observed for the highest compared to the lowest sex- and study-specific quartile of dietary (HR 1.00, 95%CI 0.92–1.09), supplemental (HR 0.97, 95%CI 0.89–1.06) and total calcium intake (HR 0.99, 95%CI 0.88–1.11). No associations with CRC-specific mortality were observed either. Interactions were observed between supplemental calcium intake and several SNPs of the CaSR gene. Conclusion Calcium intake was not associated with all-cause or CRC-specific mortality in CRC patients. The association between supplemental calcium intake and all-cause and CRC-specific mortality may be modified by genetic variants in the CaSR gene.

Summary: Background: The substantial and increasing global burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) underscores the imperative to enhance implementation and utilization of effective CRC screening offers. Therefore, we examined the lifetime and up-to-date use of CRC screening tests across various countries, and described utilization trends over time. Methods: We conducted a systematic review on the extent and recent trends of utilization of CRC screening tests among people 45 years or older in different countries around the globe. PubMed/Medline, Web of Science, and Embase electronic databases were screened for eligible studies from inception to June 30, 2024. The study protocol was registered with international prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO) (CRD42023391344). Findings: A total of 50 studies, based on nationally-representative data, were finally included - 27 from the United States (US) and 23 from other countries. The overall utilization of CRC screening has steadily increased over time in many countries, reaching 74.9% in Denmark in 2018–2020, 64% in Korea in 2020, and 72% in the US in 2021. Nevertheless, the utilization rates remain far below the national or continental targets in most countries. In contrast to European and Asian countries, where screening was predominantly fecal test-based, the approach in the US was primarily driven by colonoscopy, and the uptake of fecal tests and sigmoidoscopy gradually declined in the past two decades. Interpretation: Despite ongoing progress in CRC screening offers and utilization, there remains large potential for enhanced roll-out and utilization of effective CRC screening programs for enhanced control of CRC incidence and mortality in the years ahead. Funding: There was no funding source for this study.

Abstract In the spectrum of colorectal tumors, microsatellite-stable (MSS) tumors with DNA polymerase ε (POLE) mutations exhibit a hypermutated profile, holding the potential to respond to immunotherapy similarly to their microsatellite-instable (MSI) counterparts. Yet, due to their rarity and the associated testing costs, systematic screening for these mutations is not commonly pursued. Notably, the histopathological phenotype resulting from POLE mutations is theorized to resemble that of MSI. This resemblance not only could facilitate their detection by a transformer-based Deep Learning (DL) system trained on MSI pathology slides, but also indicates the possibility for MSS patients with POLE mutations to access enhanced treatment options, which might otherwise be overlooked. To harness this potential, we trained a Deep Learning classifier on a large dataset with the ground truth for microsatellite status and subsequently validated its capabilities for MSI and POLE detection across three external cohorts. Our model accurately identified MSI status in both the internal and external resection cohorts using pathology images alone. Notably, with a classification threshold of 0.5, over 75% of POLE driver mutant patients in the external resection cohorts were flagged as “positive” by a DL system trained on MSI status. In a clinical setting, deploying this DL model as a preliminary screening tool could facilitate the efficient identification of clinically relevant MSI and POLE mutations in colorectal tumors, in one go.

Bovine milk and meat factors (BMMFs) are plasmid‐like DNA molecules isolated from bovine milk and serum, as well as the peritumor of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. BMMFs have been proposed as zoonotic infectious agents and drivers of indirect carcinogenesis of CRC, inducing chronic tissue inflammation, radical formation and increased levels of DNA damage. Data on expression of BMMFs in large clinical cohorts to test an association with co‐markers and clinical parameters were not previously available and were therefore assessed in this study. Tissue sections with paired tumor‐adjacent mucosa and tumor tissues of CRC patients [individual cohorts and tissue microarrays (TMAs) (n = 246)], low‐/high‐grade dysplasia (LGD/HGD) and mucosa of healthy donors were used for immunohistochemical quantification of the expression of BMMF replication protein (Rep) and CD68/CD163 (macrophages) by co‐immunofluorescence microscopy and immunohistochemical scoring (TMA). Rep was expressed in the tumor‐adjacent mucosa of 99% of CRC patients (TMA), was histologically associated with CD68+/CD163+ macrophages and was increased in CRC patients when compared to healthy controls. Tumor tissues showed only low stromal Rep expression. Rep was expressed in LGD and less in HGD but was strongly expressed in LGD/HGD‐adjacent tissues. Albeit not reaching statistical significance, incidence curves for CRC‐specific death were increased for higher Rep expression (TMA), with high tumor‐adjacent Rep expression being linked to the highest incidence of death. BMMF Rep expression might represent a marker and early risk factor for CRC. The correlation between Rep and CD68 expression supports a previous hypothesis that BMMF‐specific inflammatory regulations, including macrophages, are involved in the pathogenesis of CRC.

Abstract Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 200 common genetic variants independently associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but the causal variants and target genes are mostly unknown. We sought to fine-map all known CRC risk loci using GWAS data from 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of East Asian and European ancestry. Our stepwise conditional analyses revealed 238 independent association signals of CRC risk, each with a set of credible causal variants (CCVs), of which 28 signals had a single CCV. Our cis-eQTL/mQTL and colocalization analyses using colorectal tissue-specific transcriptome and methylome data separately from 1299 and 321 individuals, along with functional genomic investigation, uncovered 136 putative CRC susceptibility genes, including 56 genes not previously reported. Analyses of single-cell RNA-seq data from colorectal tissues revealed 17 putative CRC susceptibility genes with distinct expression patterns in specific cell types. Analyses of whole exome sequencing data provided additional support for several target genes identified in this study as CRC susceptibility genes. Enrichment analyses of the 136 genes uncover pathways not previously linked to CRC risk. Our study substantially expanded association signals for CRC and provided additional insight into the biological mechanisms underlying CRC development.

Summary: Background: DNA methylation biomarkers in colorectal cancer (CRC) tissue hold potential as prognostic indicators. However, individual studies have yielded heterogeneous results, and external validation is largely absent. We conducted a comprehensive external validation and meta-analysis of previously suggested gene methylation biomarkers for CRC prognosis. Methods: We performed a systematic search to identify relevant studies investigating gene methylation biomarkers for CRC prognosis until March 2024. Our external validation cohort with long-term follow-up included 2303 patients with CRC from 22 hospitals in southwest Germany. We used Cox regression analyses to assess associations between previously suggested gene methylation biomarkers and prognosis, adjusting for clinical variables. We calculated pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using random-effects models. Findings: Of 151 single gene and 29 multiple gene methylation biomarkers identified from 121 studies, 37 single gene and seven multiple gene biomarkers were significantly associated with CRC prognosis after adjustment for clinical variables. Moreover, the directions of these associations with prognosis remained consistent between the original studies and our validation analyses. Seven single biomarkers and two multi-biomarker signatures were significantly associated with CRC prognosis in the meta-analysis, with a relatively strong level of evidence for CDKN2A, WNT5A, MLH1, and EVL. Interpretation: In a comprehensive evaluation of the so far identified gene methylation biomarkers for CRC prognosis, we identified candidates with potential clinical relevance for further investigation. Funding: The German Research Council, the Interdisciplinary Research Program of the National Center for Tumor Diseases (NCT), Germany, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

Summary: Background: Consumption of fibre, fruits and vegetables have been linked with lower colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. A genome-wide gene-environment (G × E) analysis was performed to test whether genetic variants modify these associations. Methods: A pooled sample of 45 studies including up to 69,734 participants (cases: 29,896; controls: 39,838) of European ancestry were included. To identify G × E interactions, we used the traditional 1--degree-of-freedom (DF) G × E test and to improve power a 2-step procedure and a 3DF joint test that investigates the association between a genetic variant and dietary exposure, CRC risk and G × E interaction simultaneously. Findings: The 3-DF joint test revealed two significant loci with p-value

Abstract Deep Learning (DL) can predict biomarkers from cancer histopathology. Several clinically approved applications use this technology. Most approaches, however, predict categorical labels, whereas biomarkers are often continuous measurements. We hypothesize that regression-based DL outperforms classification-based DL. Therefore, we develop and evaluate a self-supervised attention-based weakly supervised regression method that predicts continuous biomarkers directly from 11,671 images of patients across nine cancer types. We test our method for multiple clinically and biologically relevant biomarkers: homologous recombination deficiency score, a clinically used pan-cancer biomarker, as well as markers of key biological processes in the tumor microenvironment. Using regression significantly enhances the accuracy of biomarker prediction, while also improving the predictions’ correspondence to regions of known clinical relevance over classification. In a large cohort of colorectal cancer patients, regression-based prediction scores provide a higher prognostic value than classification-based scores. Our open-source regression approach offers a promising alternative for continuous biomarker analysis in computational pathology.

Summary: Background: Obesity has been positively associated with most molecular subtypes of colorectal cancer (CRC); however, the magnitude and the causality of these associations is uncertain. Methods: We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine potential causal relationships between body size traits (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference, and body fat percentage) with risks of Jass classification types and individual subtypes of CRC (microsatellite instability [MSI] status, CpG island methylator phenotype [CIMP] status, BRAF and KRAS mutations). Summary data on tumour markers were obtained from two genetic consortia (CCFR, GECCO). Findings: A 1-standard deviation (SD:5.1 kg/m2) increment in BMI levels was found to increase risks of Jass type 1MSI-high,CIMP-high,BRAF-mutated,KRAS-wildtype (odds ratio [OR]: 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.46, 3.13; p-value = 9 × 10−5) and Jass type 2non-MSI-high,CIMP-high,BRAF-mutated,KRAS-wildtype CRC (OR: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.26, 3.86; p-value = 0.005). The magnitude of these associations was stronger compared with Jass type 4non-MSI-high,CIMP-low/negative,BRAF-wildtype,KRAS-wildtype CRC (p-differences: 0.03 and 0.04, respectively). A 1-SD (SD:13.4 cm) increment in waist circumference increased risk of Jass type 3non-MSI-high,CIMP-low/negative,BRAF-wildtype,KRAS-mutated (OR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.34, 2.25; p-value = 9 × 10−5) that was stronger compared with Jass type 4 CRC (p-difference: 0.03). A higher body fat percentage (SD:8.5%) increased risk of Jass type 1 CRC (OR: 2.59, 95% CI: 1.49, 4.48; p-value = 0.001), which was greater than Jass type 4 CRC (p-difference: 0.03). Interpretation: Body size was more strongly linked to the serrated (Jass types 1 and 2) and alternate (Jass type 3) pathways of colorectal carcinogenesis in comparison to the traditional pathway (Jass type 4). Funding: Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, American Institute for Cancer Research, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Prevent Cancer Foundation, Victorian Cancer Agency, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Cancer Society, Region Västerbotten, Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, Lion’s Cancer Research Foundation, Insamlingsstiftelsen, Umeå University. Full funding details are provided in acknowledgements.

Abstract Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values

Abstract Studies have shown that colorectal cancer prognosis can be predicted by deep learning-based analysis of histological tissue sections of the primary tumor. So far, this has been achieved using a binary prediction. Survival curves might contain more detailed information and thus enable a more fine-grained risk prediction. Therefore, we established survival curve-based CRC survival predictors and benchmarked them against standard binary survival predictors, comparing their performance extensively on the clinical high and low risk subsets of one internal and three external cohorts. Survival curve-based risk prediction achieved a very similar risk stratification to binary risk prediction for this task. Exchanging other components of the pipeline, namely input tissue and feature extractor, had largely identical effects on model performance independently of the type of risk prediction. An ensemble of all survival curve-based models exhibited a more robust performance, as did a similar ensemble based on binary risk prediction. Patients could be further stratified within clinical risk groups. However, performance still varied across cohorts, indicating limited generalization of all investigated image analysis pipelines, whereas models using clinical data performed robustly on all cohorts.

High red and processed meat intake and genetic predisposition are risk factors of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, evidence of their independent and joint associations on the risk of colorectal neoplasms is limited. We assessed these associations among 4774 men and women undergoing screening colonoscopy. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were calculated based on 140 loci related to CRC. We used multiple logistic regression models to evaluate the associations of red and processed meat intake and PRS with the risk of colorectal neoplasms. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were translated to genetic risk equivalents (GREs) to compare the strength of the associations with colorectal neoplasm risk of both factors. Compared to ≤1 time/week, processed meat intake >1 time/week was associated with a significantly increased risk of colorectal neoplasm [aOR (95% CI): 1.28 (1.12–1.46)]. This risk increase was equivalent to the risk increase associated with a 19 percentile higher PRS. The association of red meat intake with colorectal neoplasm was weaker and did not reach statistical significance. High processed meat intake and PRS contribute to colorectal neoplasm risk independently. Limiting processed meat intake may offset a substantial proportion of the genetically increased risk of colorectal neoplasms.

Abstract Background Sedentary behaviours have been associated with increased risks of some common cancers in epidemiological studies; however, it is unclear if these associations are causal. Methods We used univariable and multivariable two‐sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) to examine potential causal relationships between sedentary behaviours and risks of breast, colorectal and prostate cancer. Genetic variants associated with self‐reported leisure television watching and computer use were identified from a recent genome‐wide association study (GWAS). Data related to cancer risk were obtained from cancer GWAS consortia. A series of sensitivity analyses were applied to examine the robustness of the results to the presence of confounding. Results A 1‐standard deviation (SD: 1.5 h/day) increment in hours of television watching increased risk of breast cancer (OR per 1‐SD: 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05–1.26) and colorectal cancer (OR per 1‐SD: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.16–1.49) while there was little evidence of an association for prostate cancer risk (OR per 1‐SD: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.84–1.06). After adjusting for years of education, the effect estimates for television watching were attenuated (breast cancer, OR per 1‐SD: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.92–1.27; colorectal cancer, OR per 1‐SD: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.90–1.31). Post hoc analyses showed that years of education might have a possible confounding and mediating role in the association between television watching with breast and colorectal cancer. Consistent results were observed for each cancer site according to sex (colorectal cancer), anatomical subsites and cancer subtypes. There was little evidence of associations between genetically predicted computer use and cancer risk. Conclusions Our univariable analysis identified some positive associations between hours of television watching and risks of breast and colorectal cancer. However, further adjustment for additional lifestyle factors especially years of education attenuated these results. Future studies using objective measures of exposure can provide new insights into the possible role of sedentary behaviour in cancer development.

Abstract In addition to the traditional staging system in colorectal cancer (CRC), the Immunoscore® has been proposed to characterize the level of immune infiltration in tumor tissue and as a potential prognostic marker. The aim of this study was to examine and validate associations of an immune cell score analogous to the Immunoscore® with established molecular tumor markers and with CRC patient survival in a routine setting. Patients from a population‐based cohort study with available CRC tumor tissue blocks were included in this analysis. CD3+ and CD8+ tumor infiltrating lymphocytes in the tumor center and invasive margin were determined in stained tumor tissue slides. Based on the T‐cell density in each region, an immune cell score closely analogous to the concept of the Immunoscore® was calculated and tumors categorized into IS‐low, IS‐intermediate, or IS‐high. Logistic regression models were used to assess associations between clinicopathological characteristics with the immune cell score, and Cox proportional hazards models to analyze associations with cancer‐specific, relapse‐free, and overall survival. From 1,535 patients with CRC, 411 (27%) had IS‐high tumors. Microsatellite instability (MSI‐high) was strongly associated with higher immune cell score levels (p

Abstract Introduction Whether and to what extent the relationship between physical activity (PA) and colorectal cancer (CRC) differs according to CRC‐related genetic risk remains to be determined, and no studies to date have quantified how much genetically determined risk could be compensated for with active exercise. Methods Genetic risk was quantified by a polygenic risk score (PRS) summarizing the estimated effect of 140 CRC‐associated genetic variants. Associations of PA with CRC risk were estimated by multivariable logistic regression across PRS levels. We also compared the impact of PA and specific PA types to the PRS using “genetic risk equivalent (GRE)”, a novel approach to enhance effective risk communication. Results Among 5058 CRC patients and 4134 controls, we observed no significant association between overall PA level in quartiles and CRC risk. However, the highest versus lowest lifetime leisure time physical activity (LTPA) was associated with a 13% lower CRC risk [odds ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77–1.00] independent of PRS levels (adjusted p value for interaction = 0.18). This effect was equivalent to the effect of having 11 percentiles lower PRS (GRE −10.6, 95% CI −20.7 to −0.6). The GRE (95% CI) for the highest lifetime sports tertile was −23.0 (−33.9 to −12.0). Conclusions LTPA was inversely associated with CRC risk irrespective of polygenic risk for CRC, which reinforces the importance of LTPA in CRC prevention among the general population. Adequate sports activity can compensate for a large share of polygenic risk for CRC.

Objective: We aimed to directly compare the estimated effects of adherence to a healthy lifestyle with those of risk predisposition according to known genetic variants affecting colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, to support effective risk communication for cancer prevention. Methods: A healthy lifestyle score (HLS) was derived from 5 lifestyle factors: smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity, and body adiposity. The association of lifestyle and polygenic risk score (PRS) (based on 140 CRC-associated risk loci) with CRC risk was assessed with multiple logistic regression and compared through the genetic risk equivalent (GRE), a novel approach providing an estimate of the effects of adherence to a healthy lifestyle in terms of percentile differences in PRS. Results: A higher HLS was associated with lower CRC risk (4,844 cases, 3,964 controls). Those adhering to all 5 healthy lifestyle factors had a 62% (95% CI 54%–68%) lower CRC risk than those adhering to ≤ 2 healthy lifestyle factors. The estimated effect of adherence to all 5 compared with ≤ 2 healthy lifestyle factors was as strong as the effect of having a 79 percentile (GRE 79, 95% CI 61–97) lower PRS. The association between a healthy lifestyle and CRC risk was independent of PRS level but was particularly pronounced among those with a family history of CRC in ≥ 1 first-degree relative (P-interaction = 0.0013). Conclusions: A healthy lifestyle was strongly inversely associated with CRC risk. The large GRE indicated that CRC risk determined by polygenic risk may be offset to a substantial extent by adherence to a healthy lifestyle.

Germline biallelic pathogenic MUTYH variants predispose patients to colorectal cancer (CRC); however, approaches to identify MUTYH variant carriers are lacking. Here, the authors evaluated mutational signatures that could distinguish MUTYH carriers in large CRC cohorts, and found MUTYH-associated somatic mutations.

Abstract Identification of new genetic markers may improve the prediction of colorectal cancer prognosis. Our objective was to examine genome-wide associations of germline genetic variants with disease-specific survival in an analysis of 16,964 cases of colorectal cancer. We analyzed genotype and colorectal cancer-specific survival data from a consortium of 15 studies. Approximately 7.5 million SNPs were examined under the log-additive model using Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for clinical factors and principal components. Additionally, we ran secondary analyses stratifying by tumor site and disease stage. We used a genome-wide p-value threshold of 5 × 10–8 to assess statistical significance. No variants were statistically significantly associated with disease-specific survival in the full case analysis or in the stage-stratified analyses. Three SNPs were statistically significantly associated with disease-specific survival for cases with tumors located in the distal colon (rs698022, HR = 1.48, CI 1.30–1.69, p = 8.47 × 10–9) and the proximal colon (rs189655236, HR = 2.14, 95% CI 1.65–2.77, p = 9.19 × 10–9 and rs144717887, HR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.57–2.58, p = 3.14 × 10–8), whereas no associations were detected for rectal tumors. Findings from this large genome-wide association study highlight the potential for anatomical-site-stratified genome-wide studies to identify germline genetic risk variants associated with colorectal cancer-specific survival. Larger sample sizes and further replication efforts are needed to more fully interpret these findings.

Within the framework of precision medicine, the stratification of individual genetic susceptibility based on inherited DNA variation has paramount relevance. However, one of the most relevant pitfalls of traditional Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS) approaches is their inability to model complex high-order non-linear SNP-SNP interactions and their effect on the phenotype (e.g. epistasis). Indeed, they incur in a computational challenge as the number of possible interactions grows exponentially with the number of SNPs considered, affecting the statistical reliability of the model parameters as well. In this work, we address this issue by proposing a novel PRS approach, called High-order Interactions-aware Polygenic Risk Score (hiPRS), that incorporates high-order interactions in modeling polygenic risk. The latter combines an interaction search routine based on frequent itemsets mining and a novel interaction selection algorithm based on Mutual Information, to construct a simple and interpretable weighted model of user-specified dimensionality that can predict a given binary phenotype. Compared to traditional PRSs methods, hiPRS does not rely on GWAS summary statistics nor any external information. Moreover, hiPRS differs from Machine Learning-based approaches that can include complex interactions in that it provides a readable and interpretable model and it is able to control overfitting, even on small samples. In the present work we demonstrate through a comprehensive simulation study the superior performance of hiPRS w.r.t. state of the art methods, both in terms of scoring performance and interpretability of the resulting model. We also test hiPRS against small sample size, class imbalance and the presence of noise, showcasing its robustness to extreme experimental settings. Finally, we apply hiPRS to a case study on real data from DACHS cohort, defining an interaction-aware scoring model to predict mortality of stage II-III Colon-Rectal Cancer patients treated with oxaliplatin.

Summary: Background: An increasing proportion of colorectal cancers (CRCs) are detected through screening due to the availability of organised population-based programmes. We aimed to analyse survival probabilities of patients with screen-detected CRC in European countries. Methods: Data from CRC patients were obtained from 16 population-based cancer registries in nine European countries. We included patients with cancer diagnosed from the year organised CRC screening programmes were introduced until the most recent year with available data at the time of analysis, whose ages at diagnosis fell into the age groups targeted by screening. Patients were followed up with regards to vital status until 2016-2020 across the various countries. Overall and CRC-specific survival were analysed by mode of detection and stage at diagnosis for all countries combined and for each country separately using the Kaplan-Meier method. Findings: We included data from 228 134 patients, of whom 134 597 (aged 60-69 years at diagnosis targeted by screening in all countries) were considered in analyses for all countries combined. 22·3% (38 080/134 597) of patients had cancer detected through screening. Most screen-detected cancers were found at stages I-II (65·6% [12 772/19 469 included in stage-specific analyses]), while the majority of non-screen-detected cancers were found at stages III-IV (56·4% [31 882/56 543 included in stage-specific analyses]). Five-year overall and CRC-specific survival rates for patients with screen-detected cancer were 83·4% (95% CI 82·9-83·9) and 89·2% (88·8-89·7), respectively; for patients with non-screen-detected cancer, they were much lower (57·5% [57·2-57·8] and 65·7% [65·4-66·1], respectively). The favourable survival of patients with screen-detected cancer was also seen within each stage – five-year overall survival rates for patients with screen-detected stage I, II, III, and IV cancers were 92.4% (95% CI 91·6-93·1), 87·9% (86·6-89·1), 80·7% (79·3-82·0), and 32·3 (29·4-35·2), respectively. These patterns were also consistently seen for each individual country. Interpretation: Patients with cancer diagnosed at screening have a very favourable prognosis. In the rare case of detection of advanced stage cancer, survival probabilities are still much higher than those commonly reported for all patients regardless of mode of detection. Although these results cannot be taken to quantify screening effects, they provide useful and encouraging information for patients with screen-detected CRC and their physicians. Funding: This study was supported in part by grants from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the German Cancer Aid.

Summary: Background: Demographic aging is expected to increase the number of colorectal cancer (CRC) cases in many countries. Screening for CRC can substantially reduce the disease burden but its use has remained rather limited in Germany. We aimed to quantify the expected impact of demographic aging on the future CRC burden and the potential to reduce that burden by increased use of screening colonoscopy offers in Germany. Methods: We obtained sex- and age-specific data on colonoscopy use from AOK, the biggest health insurance provider in Germany, and combined these with the projected demographic development and current CRC incidence rates. We estimated the number of new CRC cases until 2060, assuming screening colonoscopy use to be constant or to increase to between 1·5 and 3 times the current levels. Findings: Ten-year screening colonoscopy utilization rates were low (

According to recent evidence, the prognostic value of Vitamin D (VitD) status for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients might be confined to patients with the GG genotype of Cdx2, a functional polymorphism of the VitD receptor gene. We aimed to validate these findings in a cohort of CRC patients. Post-operative serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration was determined by mass spectrometry and Cdx2 genotyping was performed from blood or buccal swabs using standard methods. Joint associations of VitD status and Cdx2 with overall survival (OS), CRC-specific survival (CSS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), and disease-free survival (DFS) were assessed using Cox regression. For patients with GG genotype, adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for the associations of sufficient compared with deficient VitD were 0.63 (0.50–0.78), 0.68 (0.50–0.90), 0.66 (0.51–0.86), and 0.62 (0.50–0.77) for OS, CSS, RFS, and DFS, respectively. These associations were weaker and not statistically significant for the AA/AG genotype. Interaction between VitD status and genotype did not reach statistical significance. VitD deficiency is an independent predictor of poorer survival, particularly for the GG Cdx2 carriers, suggesting a potential role of VitD supplementation according to VitD status and genotype, which should be evaluated in randomised trials.

Abstract Background Higher adiposity increases the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), but whether this relationship varies by anatomical sub-site or by sex is unclear. Further, the metabolic alterations mediating the effects of adiposity on CRC are not fully understood. Methods We examined sex- and site-specific associations of adiposity with CRC risk and whether adiposity-associated metabolites explain the associations of adiposity with CRC. Genetic variants from genome-wide association studies of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, unadjusted for BMI; N = 806,810), and 123 metabolites from targeted nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics (N = 24,925), were used as instruments. Sex-combined and sex-specific Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted for BMI and WHR with CRC risk (58,221 cases and 67,694 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry). Sex-combined MR was conducted for BMI and WHR with metabolites, for metabolites with CRC, and for BMI and WHR with CRC adjusted for metabolite classes in multivariable models. Results In sex-specific MR analyses, higher BMI (per 4.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08, 1.38) times higher CRC odds among men (inverse-variance-weighted (IVW) model); among women, higher BMI (per 5.2 kg/m2) was associated with 1.09 (95% CI = 0.97, 1.22) times higher CRC odds. WHR (per 0.07 higher) was more strongly associated with CRC risk among women (IVW OR = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.08, 1.43) than men (IVW OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.81, 1.36). BMI or WHR was associated with 104/123 metabolites at false discovery rate-corrected P ≤ 0.05; several metabolites were associated with CRC, but not in directions that were consistent with the mediation of positive adiposity-CRC relations. In multivariable MR analyses, associations of BMI and WHR with CRC were not attenuated following adjustment for representative metabolite classes, e.g., the univariable IVW OR for BMI with CRC was 1.12 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.26), and this became 1.11 (95% CI = 0.99, 1.26) when adjusting for cholesterol in low-density lipoprotein particles. Conclusions Our results suggest that higher BMI more greatly raises CRC risk among men, whereas higher WHR more greatly raises CRC risk among women. Adiposity was associated with numerous metabolic alterations, but none of these explained associations between adiposity and CRC. More detailed metabolomic measures are likely needed to clarify the mechanistic pathways.

Abstract Background Bilirubin, a byproduct of hemoglobin breakdown and purported anti-oxidant, is thought to be cancer preventive. We conducted complementary serological and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate whether alterations in circulating levels of bilirubin are associated with risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We decided a priori to perform analyses separately in men and women based on suggestive evidence that associations may differ by sex. Methods In a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), pre-diagnostic unconjugated bilirubin (UCB, the main component of total bilirubin) concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography in plasma samples of 1386 CRC cases and their individually matched controls. Additionally, 115 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated (P

Evidence has shown that certain methylation markers derived from blood can mirror corresponding methylation signatures in internal tissues. In the current study, we aimed to investigate two strong epigenetic predictors for life span, derived from blood DNA methylation data, in tissue samples of solid cancer patients. Using data from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the German DACHS study, we compared a mortality risk score (MRscore) and DNAmPhenoAge in paired tumor and adjacent normal tissue samples of patients with lung (N = 69), colorectal (n = 299), breast (n = 90), head/neck (n = 50), prostate (n = 50), and liver (n = 50) cancer. To explore the concordance across tissue and blood, we additionally assessed the two markers in blood samples of colorectal cancer (CRC) cases and matched controls (n = 93) in the DACHS+ study. The MRscore was significantly elevated in tumor tissues compared to normal tissues of all cancers except prostate cancer, for which an opposite pattern was observed. DNAmPhenoAge was consistently higher in all tumor tissues. The MRscore discriminated lung, colorectal, and prostate tumor tissues from normal tissues with very high accuracy [AUCs of 0.87, 0.99 (TCGA) /0.94 (DACHS), and 0.92, respectively]. DNAmPhenoAge accurately discriminated five types of tumor tissues from normal tissues (except prostate cancer), with AUCs of 0.82–0.93. The MRscore was also significantly higher in blood samples of CRC cases than in controls, with areas under the curve (AUC) of 0.74, whereas DNAmPhenoAge did not distinguish cases from controls, with AUC of 0.54. This study provides compelling evidence that blood‐derived DNAm markers could reflect methylation changes in less accessible tissues. Further research should explore the potential use of these findings for cancer diagnosis and early detection.

Large scale sequencing study is of paramount importance to unravel the heterogeneity of colorectal cancer. Here, the authors sequenced 205 cancer genes in more than 2000 tumours and identified additional mutated driver genes, determined that mutational burden and specific mutations in TP53 are associated with survival odds.

In cancer many gene variants may contribute to disease etiology, but the impact of a given gene variant may have varied effect size. Here, the authors analyse summary statistics of genome-wide association studies from fourteen cancers, and show the utility of polygenic risk scores may vary depending on cancer type.

Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI) and diabetes are established risk factors for colorectal cancer (CRC), likely through perturbations in metabolic traits (e.g. insulin resistance and glucose homeostasis). Identification of interactions between variation in genes and these metabolic risk factors may identify novel biologic insights into CRC etiology. Methods To improve statistical power and interpretation for gene‐environment interaction (G × E) testing, we tested genetic variants that regulate expression of a gene together for interaction with BMI (kg/m2) and diabetes on CRC risk among 26 017 cases and 20 692 controls. Each variant was weighted based on PrediXcan analysis of gene expression data from colon tissue generated in the Genotype‐Tissue Expression Project for all genes with heritability ≥1%. We used a mixed‐effects model to jointly measure the G × E interaction in a gene by partitioning the interactions into the predicted gene expression levels (fixed effects), and residual G × E effects (random effects). G × BMI analyses were stratified by sex as BMI‐CRC associations differ by sex. We used false discovery rates to account for multiple comparisons and reported all results with FDR

Abstract Background Evidence suggests that physical activity (PA) is beneficial for reducing fatigue in colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors. However, little is known regarding long-term effects of PA on fatigue and whether pre-diagnosis PA is associated with less fatigue in the years after diagnosis. Our study aimed to investigate the association of pre- and post-diagnosis PA with long-term fatigue in CRC survivors. Methods This study used a German population-based cohort of 1781 individuals, diagnosed with CRC in 2003–2014, and alive at five-year follow-up (5YFU). Physical activity was assessed at diagnosis and at 5YFU. Fatigue was assessed by the Fatigue Assessment Questionnaire and the EORTC Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30 fatigue subscale at 5YFU. Multivariable linear regression was used to explore associations between pre- and post-diagnosis PA and fatigue at 5YFU. Results No evidence was found that pre-diagnosis PA was associated with less fatigue in long-term CRC survivors. Pre-diagnosis work-related PA and vigorous PA were even associated with higher levels of physical (Beta (ß) = 2.52, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.14–3.90; ß = 2.03, CI = 0.65–3.41), cognitive (ß = 0.17, CI = 0.05–0.28; ß = 0.13, CI = 0.01–0.25), and affective fatigue (ß = 0.26, CI = 0.07–0.46; ß = 0.21, CI = 0.02–0.40). In cross-sectional analyses, post-diagnosis PA was strongly associated with lower fatigue on all scales. Conclusions In this study, pre-diagnosis PA does not appear to be associated with less fatigue among long-term CRC survivors. Our results support the importance of ongoing PA in long-term CRC survivors. Our findings might be used as a basis for further research on specific PA interventions to improve the long-term outcome of CRC survivors.

Previous studies have reported conflicting results regarding the benefit of administering 5‐FU‐based chemotherapy to colon cancer (CC) patients with microsatellite‐instable (MSI‐high) tumors, and results from stage‐specific analyses are scarce. Patients with stage II or III CC were recruited as part of a population‐based study between 2003 and 2015. The Cox regression models including propensity score weighting were used to calculate hazard ratios and confidence intervals for the association between chemotherapy and cancer‐specific (CSS), relapse‐free (RFS), and overall survival (OS) by stage of disease and MSI status of the tumor. Median follow‐up was 6.2 years. A total of 1010 CC patients were included in the analysis (54% stage II, 46% stage III, 20% MSI‐high). Adjuvant chemotherapy was administered to 48 (8.7%) stage II and 366 (79%) stage III patients. Overall, patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy had better CSS [HR = 0.65 (0.49–0.86)] than those who received surgery alone. Among stage II patients, only 64 (12%) cancer‐related deaths occurred, none of which in MSI‐high patients who received chemotherapy. Patients with MSI‐high tumors who received adjuvant treatment showed better CSS and a tendency toward better RFS compared to MSI‐high patients who did not receive chemotherapy [HRCSS = 0.36 (0.15–0.82), HRRFS = 0.49 (0.22–1.06)]. Patients with microsatellite‐stable (MSS) tumors receiving adjuvant chemotherapy also had significantly better survival [HRCSS = 0.65 (0.48–0.87) and HRRFS = 0.68 (0.52–0.88)]. In this population‐based study including stage II and III CC patients, we observed a survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for both MSS and MSI‐high tumors. Adjuvant chemotherapy seemed to be beneficial among high‐risk stage II patients with MSI‐high tumors.

Physical activity has been linked to lower risks of colorectal and breast cancer. Here, the authors present a Mendelian randomisation analysis supporting a potentially causal relationship between higher physical activity levels and lower risks of breast cancer and colorectal cancer.

Background: According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), there is sufficient evidence for the carcinogenicity of processed meat consumption in humans, specifically regarding colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Evidence for the carcinogenicity of red meat consumption is more limited but points in the same direction. Methods: A macro-simulation approach was used to calculate age- and sex-specific potential impact fractions in a 30-year period (2020–2050). Aims: We estimated numbers and proportions of future CRC cases preventable under different scenarios of reducing the intake of processed and red meat in the German population. Results: Eliminating processed meat intake could reduce the burden of CRC by approximately 205,000 cases in Germany (9.6%) in 2020–2050, 2/3 among males (145,000) and 1/3 among females (60,000). Without red meat intake, approximately 63,000 CRC cases could be avoided (2.9%), 39,000 among males and 24,000 among females. Reductions in the mean consumption of both processed and red meat by one or two servings (each 11 or 22 g) per day would be expected to reduce CRC case numbers by 68,000 (3.1%) and 140,000 (6.5%), respectively. Conclusion: A reduction in red and processed meat intake might substantially reduce the incidence of CRC in Germany. The means of achieving such a reduction might include price and taxation policies, food labeling, and clearer risk communication aiming to reduce individual intake.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Abstract Background Competing molecular classification systems have been proposed to complement the TNM staging system for a better prediction of survival in colorectal cancer (CRC). However, validation studies are so far lacking. The aim of this study was to validate and extend previously published molecular classifications of CRC in a large independent cohort of CRC patients. Methods CRC patients were recruited into a population-based cohort study (DACHS). Molecular subtypes were categorized based on three previously published classifications. Cox-proportional hazard models, based on the same set of patients and using the same confounders as reported by the original studies, were used to determine overall, cancer-specific, or relapse-free survival for each subtype. Hazard ratios and confidence intervals, as well as Kaplan-Meier plots were compared to those reported by the original studies. Results We observed similar patterns of worse survival for the microsatellite stable (MSS)/BRAF-mutated and MSS/KRAS-mutated subtypes in our validation analyses, which were included in two of the validated classifications. Of the two MSI subtypes, one defined by additional presence of CIMP-high and BRAF-mutation and the other by tumors negative for CIMP, BRAF and KRAS-mutations, we could not confirm associations with better prognosis as suggested by one of the classifications. For two of the published classifications, we were able to provide results for additional subgroups not included in the original studies (men, other disease stages, other locations). Conclusions External validation of three previously proposed classifications confirmed findings of worse survival for CRC patients with MSS subtypes and BRAF or KRAS mutations. Regarding MSI subtypes, other patient characteristics such as stage of the tumor, may influence the potential survival benefit. Further integration of methylation, genetic, and immunological information is needed to develop and validate a comprehensive classification that will have relevance for use in clinical practice.

Involvement of sex hormones in colorectal cancer (CRC) development has been linked to oestrogen receptor β (ERβ). Expression of ERβ is found reduced in tumour tissue and inversely related to mortality. However, mechanisms are not well understood. Our study aimed to detect differentially methylated genes associated with ERβ expression, which could point to mechanisms by which ERβ could influence risk and prognosis of CRC. Epigenome-wide DNA methylation profiling was performed using Illumina HumanMethylation450k BeadChip arrays in two independent tumour sample sets of CRC patients recruited in 2003–2010 by the German DACHS study (discovery cohort n = 917, replication cohort n = 907). ERβ expression was measured using immunohistochemistry and scored as negative, moderate and high. Differentially methylated CpG sites and genomic regions were determined using limma in the R-package RnBeads. For the comparison of tumours with moderate/high ERβ versus negative expression, differentially methylated CpG sites were identified but not confirmed by replication. Comparing tumours of high with tumours of negative ERβ expression revealed 2,904 differentially methylated CpG sites of which 403 were replicated (FDR adjusted p-value

In colorectal cancer (CRC), finding loci associated with risk may give insight into disease aetiology. Here, the authors report a genome-wide association analysis in Europeans of 34,627 CRC cases and 71,379 controls, and find 31 new risk loci and 17 new risk SNPs at previously reported loci.

Similarities in cancers can be studied to interrogate their etiology. Here, the authors use genome-wide association study summary statistics from six cancer types based on 296,215 cases and 301,319 controls of European ancestry, showing that solid tumours arising from different tissues share a degree of common germline genetic basis.

Background and study aims Adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is still unsatisfactory in many countries, thereby limiting prevention of CRC. Colon capsule endoscopy (CCE), a minimally invasive procedure, could be an alternative to fecal immunochemical tests or optical colonoscopy for CRC screening, and might increase adherence in CRC screening. This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluates the diagnostic accuracy of CCE compared to optical colonoscopy (OC) as the gold standard, adequacy of bowel preparation regimes and the patient perspective on diagnostic measures. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search in PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Register for Clinical Trials. Pooled estimates for sensitivity, specificity and the diagnostic odds ratio with their respective 95 % confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for studies providing sufficient data. Results Of 840 initially identified studies, 13 were included in the systematic review and up to 9 in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivities and specificities for polyps ≥ 6 mm were 87 % (95 % CI: 83 %–90 %) and 87 % (95 % CI: 76 %–93 %) in 8 studies, respectively. For polyps ≥ 10 mm, the pooled estimates for sensitivities and specificities were 87 % (95 % CI: 83 %–90 %) and 95 % (95 % CI: 92 %–97 %) in 9 studies, respectively. A patients’ perspective was assessed in 31 % (n = 4) of studies, and no preference of CCE over OC was reported. Bowel preparation was adequate in 61 % to 92 % of CCE exams. Conclusions CCE provides high diagnostic accuracy in an adequately cleaned large bowel. Conclusive findings on patient perspectives require further studies to increase acceptance/adherence of CCE for CRC screening.

Background: The benefit of chemotherapy in colon cancer patients is well documented but depends largely on whether patients complete the planned treatment regimen. We evaluated predictors of early discontinuation (EDChemo) and dose reduction of chemotherapy, especially the role of adverse treatment effects, in stage III patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: Stage III colon cancer patients who were diagnosed in 2003–2014 and recruited into a population-based study in Germany and received FOLFOX [5-fluorouracil (5-FU), leucovorin (LV), and oxaliplatin], capecitabine monotherapy (CapMono), or 5-FU/LV were included. We assessed determinants of EDChemo and dose reduction using multivariable logistic regression. Also, we estimated proportions of EDChemo and dose reduction that are attributable to adverse effects using attributable fractions. Results: EDChemo and dose reduction rates were 52% and 17% for FOLFOX, 28% and 9% for CapMono, and 45% and 6% for 5-FU/LV, respectively. Predictors of EDChemo were low-grade tumor and treatment in a medium-volume hospital (for FOLFOX), obesity (for CapMono), and increasing age, T4 stage, and treatment in a medium-volume hospital (for 5-FU/LV). Adverse effects were particularly strongly associated with EDChemo and contributed to about 63%, 51%, and 32% of EDChemo of FOLFOX, CapMono, and 5-FU/LV, respectively. Of the various adverse effects, gastrointestinal events showed the strongest associations with EDChemo and accounted for about 7%, 26%, and 20% of EDChemo of FOLFOX, CapMono, and 5-FU/LV, respectively. Adverse effects were, moreover, a strong determinant of dose reduction and accounted for about 82% of all cases. Conclusions: EDChemo is common in stage III colon cancer patients receiving chemotherapy and more than half of the cases of EDChemo and dose reduction are due to adverse treatment effects. Further research should address the potential for reducing EDChemo and dose reduction rates by close monitoring of patients for early signs and enhanced management of adverse effects, especially gastrointestinal events.

High red and processed meat intake (RPMI) is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). We aimed to assess the impact of RPMI on CRC risk according to and in comparison with genetically determined risk, which was quantified by a polygenic risk score (PRS). RPMI and potential confounders (ascertained by questionnaire) and a PRS (based on 140 CRC-related loci) were obtained from 5109 CRC cases and 4134 controls in a population-based case–control study. Associations of RPMI with CRC risk across PRS levels were assessed using logistic regression models and compared to effect estimates of PRS using “genetic risk equivalent” (GRE), a novel metric for effective risk communication. RPMI multiple times/week, 1 time/day, and >1 time/day was associated with 19% (95% CI 1% to 41%), 41% (18% to 70%), and 73% (30% to 132%) increased CRC risk, respectively, when compared to RPMI ≤ 1 time/week. Associations were independent of PRS levels (pinteraction = 0.97). The effect of RPMI > 1 time/day was equivalent to the effect of having 42 percentiles higher PRS level (GRE 42, 95% CI 20–65). RPMI increases CRC risk regardless of PRS levels. Avoiding RPMI can compensate for a substantial proportion of polygenic risk for CRC.

Summary: Homozygotes for the higher penetrance hemochromatosis risk allele, HFE c.845G>A (p.Cys282Tyr, or C282Y), have been reported to be at a 2- to 3-fold increased risk for colorectal cancer (CRC). These results have been reported for small sample size studies with no information about age at diagnosis for CRC. An association with age at diagnosis might alter CRC screening recommendations. We analyzed two large European ancestry datasets to assess the association of HFE genotype with CRC risk and age at CRC diagnosis. The first dataset included 59,733 CRC or advanced adenoma cases and 72,351 controls from a CRC epidemiological study consortium. The second dataset included 13,564 self-reported CRC cases and 2,880,218 controls from the personal genetics company, 23andMe. No association of the common hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) risk genotype and CRC was found in either dataset. The odds ratios (ORs) for the association of CRC and HFE C282Y homozygosity were 1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91–1.29; p = 0.4) and 1.01 (95% CI, 0.78–1.31, p = 0.9) in the two cohorts, respectively. Age at CRC diagnosis also did not differ by HFE C282Y/C282Y genotype in either dataset. These results indicate no increased CRC risk in individuals with HH genotypes and suggest that persons with HH risk genotypes can follow population screening recommendations for CRC.

BackgroundThe current organized screening program for colorectal cancer in Germany offers both sexes 5 annual fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) between ages 50 and 54 years, followed by a first screening colonoscopy at age 55 years if all of these FITs were negative. We sought to assess the implications of this approach for key parameters of diagnostic performance.Methods and findingsUsing a multistate Markov model, we estimated the expected detection rates of advanced neoplasms (advanced adenomas and cancers) and number needed to scope (NNS) to detect 1 advanced neoplasm at a first screening colonoscopy conducted at age 55 after 5 preceding negative FITs and compared them with the corresponding estimates for a first screening colonoscopy at age 55 with no preceding FIT testing. In individuals with 5 consecutive negative FITs undergoing screening colonoscopy at age 55, expected colonoscopy detection rate (NNS) was 3.7% (27) and 0.10% (1,021) for any advanced neoplasm and cancer, respectively, in men, and 2.1% (47) and 0.05% (1,880) for any advanced neoplasm and cancer, respectively, in women. These NNS values for detecting 1 advanced neoplasm are approximately 3-fold higher, and the NNS values for detecting 1 cancer are approximately 8-fold higher, than those for a first screening colonoscopy at age 55 without prior FITs. This study is limited by model simplifying assumptions and uncertainties related to input parameters.ConclusionsScreening colonoscopy at age 55 after 5 consecutive negative FITs at ages 50-54, as currently offered in the German cancer early detection program, is expected to have very low positive predictive value. Our results may inform efforts to enhance the design of screening programs.

Abstract Folate‐mediated one‐carbon metabolism (FOCM) is a key pathway essential for nucleotide synthesis, DNA methylation, and repair. This pathway is a critical target for 5‐fluorouracil (5‐FU), which is predominantly used for colorectal cancer (CRC) treatment. A comprehensive assessment of polymorphisms in FOCM‐related genes and their association with prognosis has not yet been performed. Within 1,739 CRC cases aged ≥30 years diagnosed from 2003 to 2007 (DACHS study), we investigated 397 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 50 candidates in 48 FOCM‐related genes for associations with overall‐ (OS) and disease‐free survival (DFS) using multiple Cox regression (adjusted for age, sex, stage, grade, BMI, and alcohol). We investigated effect modification by 5‐FU‐based chemotherapy and assessed pathway‐specific effects. Correction for multiple testing was performed using false discovery rates (FDR). After a median follow‐up time of 5.0 years, 585 patients were deceased. For one candidate SNP in MTHFR and two in TYMS, we observed significant inverse associations with OS (MTHFR: rs1801133, C677T: HRhet = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67–0.97; TYMS: rs1001761: HRhet = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68–0.99 and rs2847149: HRhet = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68–0.99). After FDR correction, one polymorphism in paraoxonase 1 (PON1; rs3917538) was significantly associated with OS (HRhet = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.07–1.53; HRhzv = 2.02, 95% CI:1.46–2.80; HRlogAdd = 1.31, pFDR = 0.01). Adjusted pathway analyses showed significant associations for pyrimidine biosynthesis (P = 0.04) and fluorouracil drug metabolism (P