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Aims/hypothesis: Older adults are under-represented in trials, meaning the benefits and risks of glucose-lowering agents in this age group are unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the safety and effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) in people with type 2 diabetes aged over 70 years using causal analysis., Methods: Hospital-linked UK primary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, 2013-2020) were used to compare adverse events and effectiveness in individuals initiating SGLT2i compared with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i). Analysis was age-stratified: <70 years (SGLT2i n=66,810, DPP4i n=76,172), ≥70 years (SGLT2i n=10,419, DPP4i n=33,434). Outcomes were assessed using the instrumental variable causal inference method and prescriber preference as the instrument., Results: Risk of diabetic ketoacidosis was increased with SGLT2i in those aged ≥70 (incidence rate ratio compared with DPP4i: 3.82 [95% CI 1.12, 13.03]), but not in those aged <70 (1.12 [0.41, 3.04]). However, incidence rates with SGLT2i in those ≥70 was low (29.6 [29.5, 29.7]) per 10,000 person-years. SGLT2i were associated with similarly increased risk of genital infection in both age groups (incidence rate ratio in those <70: 2.27 [2.03, 2.53]; ≥70: 2.16 [1.77, 2.63]). There was no evidence of an increased risk of volume depletion, poor micturition control, urinary frequency, falls or amputation with SGLT2i in either age group. In those ≥70, HbA 1c reduction was similar between SGLT2i and DPP4i (-0.3 mmol/mol [-1.6, 1.1], -0.02% [0.1, 0.1]), but in those <70, SGLT2i were more effective (-4 mmol/mol [4.8, -3.1], -0.4% [-0.4, -0.3])., Conclusions/interpretation: Causal analysis suggests SGLT2i are effective in adults aged ≥70 years, but increase risk for genital infections and diabetic ketoacidosis. Our study extends RCT evidence to older adults with type 2 diabetes., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Aims/hypothesis: A precision medicine approach in type 2 diabetes could enhance targeting specific glucose-lowering therapies to individual patients most likely to benefit. We aimed to use the recently developed Bayesian causal forest (BCF) method to develop and validate an individualised treatment selection algorithm for two major type 2 diabetes drug classes, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RA)., Methods: We designed a predictive algorithm using BCF to estimate individual-level conditional average treatment effects for 12-month glycaemic outcome (HbA 1c ) between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA, based on routine clinical features of 46,394 people with type 2 diabetes in primary care in England (Clinical Practice Research Datalink; 27,319 for model development, 19,075 for hold-out validation), with additional external validation in 2252 people with type 2 diabetes from Scotland (SCI-Diabetes [Tayside & Fife]). Differences in glycaemic outcome with GLP1-RA by sex seen in clinical data were replicated in clinical trial data (HARMONY programme: liraglutide [n=389] and albiglutide [n=1682]). As secondary outcomes, we evaluated the impacts of targeting therapy based on glycaemic response on weight change, tolerability and longer-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications, macrovascular complications and adverse kidney events., Results: Model development identified marked heterogeneity in glycaemic response, with 4787 (17.5%) of the development cohort having a predicted HbA 1c benefit >3 mmol/mol (>0.3%) with SGLT2i over GLP1-RA and 5551 (20.3%) having a predicted HbA 1c benefit >3 mmol/mol with GLP1-RA over SGLT2i. Calibration was good in hold-back validation, and external validation in an independent Scottish dataset identified clear differences in glycaemic outcomes between those predicted to benefit from each therapy. Sex, with women markedly more responsive to GLP1-RA, was identified as a major treatment effect modifier in both the UK observational datasets and in clinical trial data: HARMONY-7 liraglutide (GLP1-RA): 4.4 mmol/mol (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 2.2, 6.3) (0.4% [95% CrI 0.2, 0.6]) greater response in women than men. Targeting the two therapies based on predicted glycaemic response was also associated with improvements in short-term tolerability and long-term risk of new-onset microvascular complications., Conclusions/interpretation: Precision medicine approaches can facilitate effective individualised treatment choice between SGLT2i and GLP1-RA therapies, and the use of routinely collected clinical features for treatment selection could support low-cost deployment in many countries., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objective: This study aimed to compare clinical and sociodemographic risk factors for severe COVID-19, influenza and pneumonia, in people with diabetes., Design: Population-based cohort study., Setting: UK primary care records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) linked to mortality and hospital records., Participants: Individuals with type 1 and type 2 diabetes (COVID-19 cohort: n=43 033 type 1 diabetes and n=584 854 type 2 diabetes, influenza and pneumonia cohort: n=42 488 type 1 diabetes and n=585 289 type 2 diabetes)., Primary and Secondary Outcome Measures: COVID-19 hospitalisation from 1 February 2020 to 31 October 2020 (pre-COVID-19 vaccination roll-out), and influenza and pneumonia hospitalisation from 1 September 2016 to 31 May 2019 (pre-COVID-19 pandemic). Secondary outcomes were COVID-19 and pneumonia mortality. Associations between clinical and sociodemographic risk factors and each outcome were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. In people with type 2 diabetes, we explored modifying effects of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and body mass index (BMI) by age, sex and ethnicity., Results: In type 2 diabetes, poor glycaemic control and severe obesity were consistently associated with increased risk of hospitalisation for COVID-19, influenza and pneumonia. The highest HbA1c and BMI-associated relative risks were observed in people aged under 70 years. Sociodemographic-associated risk differed markedly by respiratory infection, particularly for ethnicity. Compared with people of white ethnicity, black and south Asian groups had a greater risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation, but a lesser risk of pneumonia hospitalisation. Risk factor associations for type 1 diabetes and for type 2 diabetes mortality were broadly consistent with the primary analysis., Conclusions: Clinical risk factors of high HbA1c and severe obesity are consistently associated with severe outcomes from COVID-19, influenza and pneumonia, especially in younger people. In contrast, associations with sociodemographic risk factors differed by type of respiratory infection. This emphasises that risk stratification should be specific to individual respiratory infections., Competing Interests: Competing interests: BAM is an employee of Wellcome Trust; holds an honorary post at the Alan Turing Institute and University College London; and declares payments from the Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant EP/N510129/). RJC declares research funding from Pfizer. SJV declares support from the University of Warwick, University of Kaiserslautern, and German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence; consulting fees from PUMAS; stock from Freshflow; and grant funding from The Alan Turing Institute (EP/N510129), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. APM received research funding from Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca. For all authors these are outside the submitted work; there are no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Recent type 2 diabetes guidance from the UK's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) proposes offering SGLT2-inhibitor therapy to people with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) or heart failure, and considering SGLT2-inhibitor therapy for those at high-risk of cardiovascular disease defined as a 10-year cardiovascular risk of > 10% using the QRISK2 algorithm. We used a contemporary population-representative UK cohort of people with type 2 diabetes to assess the implications of this guidance. 93.1% of people currently on anti-hyperglycaemic treatment are now recommended or considered for SGLT2-inhibitor therapy under the new guidance, with the majority (59.6%) eligible on the basis of QRISK2 rather than established ASCVD or heart failure (33.6%). Applying these results to the approximately 2.20 million people in England currently on anti-hyperglycaemic medication suggests 1.75 million people will now be considered for additional SGLT2-inhibitor therapy, taking the total cost of SGLT2-inhibitor therapy in England to over £1 billion per year. Given that older people, those of non-white ethnic groups, and those at lower cardiovascular disease risk were underrepresented in the clinical trials which were used to inform this guidance, careful evaluation of the impact and safety of increased SGLT2-inhibitor prescribing across different populations is urgently required. Evidence of benefit should be weighed against the major cost implications for the UK National Health Service., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: A precision medicine approach in type 2 diabetes requires the identification of clinical and biological features that are reproducibly associated with differences in clinical outcomes with specific anti-hyperglycaemic therapies. Robust evidence of such treatment effect heterogeneity could support more individualized clinical decisions on optimal type 2 diabetes therapy., Methods: We performed a pre-registered systematic review of meta-analysis studies, randomized control trials, and observational studies evaluating clinical and biological features associated with heterogenous treatment effects for SGLT2-inhibitor and GLP1-receptor agonist therapies, considering glycaemic, cardiovascular, and renal outcomes. After screening 5,686 studies, we included 101 studies of SGLT2-inhibitors and 75 studies of GLP1-receptor agonists in the final systematic review., Results: Here we show that the majority of included papers have methodological limitations precluding robust assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity. For SGLT2-inhibitors, multiple observational studies suggest lower renal function as a predictor of lesser glycaemic response, while markers of reduced insulin secretion predict lesser glycaemic response with GLP1-receptor agonists. For both therapies, multiple post-hoc analyses of randomized control trials (including trial meta-analysis) identify minimal clinically relevant treatment effect heterogeneity for cardiovascular and renal outcomes., Conclusions: Current evidence on treatment effect heterogeneity for SGLT2-inhibitor and GLP1-receptor agonist therapies is limited, likely reflecting the methodological limitations of published studies. Robust and appropriately powered studies are required to understand type 2 diabetes treatment effect heterogeneity and evaluate the potential for precision medicine to inform future clinical care., (© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.)

Background and Aims: We aimed to summarise the existing literature on insulin dose titration in gestation diabetes., Methods: Databases: Medline, EMBASE, CENTRAL and CINAHL were systematically searched for trials and observational studies comparing insulin titration strategies in gestational diabetes., Results: No trials comparing insulin dose titration strategies were identified. Only one small (n = 111) observational study was included. In this study, patient-led daily basal insulin titration was associated with higher insulin doses, tighter glycaemic control, and lower birthweight, vs weekly clinician-led titration., Conclusions: There is a paucity of evidence to support optimal insulin titration in gestational diabetes. Randomized trials are required., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Aim: To determine the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of heart failure events in people treated with sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors., Materials and Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL and ISI Web of Science for observational studies published to 9 May 2022 that explored the association between SGLT2 inhibitors and any indication for heart failure (including new diagnosis or hospitalization for heart failure) in type 2 diabetes. Identified studies were independently screened by two reviewers and assessed for bias using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. Eligible studies with comparable outcome data were pooled for meta-analysis using random-effects models, reporting hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The ARR per 100 person-years was determined overall, and in subgroups with and without baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD)., Results: From 43 eligible studies, with a total of 4 818 242 participants from 17 countries, 21 were included for meta-analysis. SGLT2 inhibitors were associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.59-0.72) overall and both in those with CVD (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.68-0.89) and without CVD (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.39-0.71). Risk reduction for hospitalization for heart failure in people with a history of CVD (ARR 1.17, 95% CI 0.78-1.55) was significantly greater than for those without CVD (ARR 0.39, 95% CI 0.32-0.47). The number-needed-to-treat to prevent one event of hospitalization for heart failure was 86 (95% CI 65-128) person-years of treatment for the CVD group and 256 (95% CI 215-316) person-years for those without CVD., Conclusions: Real-world SGLT2 inhibitor use supports randomized trial data for the size effect of reduced hospitalization for heart failure in type 2 diabetes, although with a much lower ARR in people without CVD., (© 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Aims/hypothesis: Screening programmes can detect cases of undiagnosed diabetes earlier than symptomatic or incidental diagnosis. However, the improvement in time to diagnosis achieved by screening programmes compared with routine clinical care is unclear. We aimed to use the UK Biobank population-based study to provide the first population-based estimate of the reduction in time to diabetes diagnosis that could be achieved by HbA 1c -based screening in middle-aged adults., Methods: We studied UK Biobank participants aged 40-70 years with HbA 1c measured at enrolment (but not fed back to participants/clinicians) and linked primary and secondary healthcare data (n=179,923) and identified those with a pre-existing diabetes diagnosis (n=13,077, 7.3%). Among the remaining participants (n=166,846) without a diabetes diagnosis, we used an elevated enrolment HbA 1c level (≥48 mmol/mol [≥6.5%]) to identify those with undiagnosed diabetes. For this group, we used Kaplan-Meier analysis to assess the time between enrolment HbA 1c measurement and subsequent clinical diabetes diagnosis up to 10 years, and Cox regression to identify clinical factors associated with delayed diabetes diagnosis., Results: In total, 1.0% (1703/166,846) of participants without a diabetes diagnosis had undiagnosed diabetes based on calibrated HbA 1c levels at UK Biobank enrolment, with a median HbA 1c level of 51.3 mmol/mol (IQR 49.1-57.2) (6.8% [6.6-7.4]). These participants represented an additional 13.0% of diabetes cases in the study population relative to the 13,077 participants with a diabetes diagnosis. The median time to clinical diagnosis for those with undiagnosed diabetes was 2.2 years, with a median HbA 1c at clinical diagnosis of 58.2 mmol/mol (IQR 51.0-80.0) (7.5% [6.8-9.5]). Female participants with lower HbA 1c and BMI measurements at enrolment experienced the longest delay to clinical diagnosis., Conclusions/interpretation: Our population-based study shows that HbA 1c screening in adults aged 40-70 years can reduce the time to diabetes diagnosis by a median of 2.2 years compared with routine clinical care. The findings support the use of HbA 1c screening to reduce the time for which individuals are living with undiagnosed diabetes., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Current treatment guidelines do not provide recommendations to support the selection of treatment for most people with type 2 diabetes. We aimed to develop and validate an algorithm to allow selection of optimal treatment based on glycaemic response, weight change, and tolerability outcomes when choosing between SGLT2 inhibitor or DPP-4 inhibitor therapies., Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we identified patients initiating SGLT2 and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies after Jan 1, 2013, from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). We excluded those who received SGLT2 or DPP-4 inhibitors as first-line treatment or insulin at the same time, had estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m 2 , or did not have a valid baseline glycated haemoglobin (HbA 1c ) measure (<53 or ≥120 mmol/mol). The primary efficacy outcome was the HbA 1c value reached 6 months after drug initiation, adjusted for baseline HbA 1c . Clinical features associated with differential HbA 1c outcome on the two therapies were identified in CPRD (n=26 877), and replicated in reanalysis of 14 clinical trials (n=10 414). An algorithm to predict individual-level differential HbA 1c outcome on the two therapies was developed in CPRD (derivation; n=14 069) and validated in head-to-head trials (n=2499) and CPRD (independent validation; n=9376). In CPRD, we further explored heterogeneity in 6-month weight change and treatment discontinuation., Findings: Among 10 253 patients initiating SGLT2 inhibitors and 16 624 patients initiating DPP-4 inhibitors in CPRD, baseline HbA 1c , age, BMI, eGFR, and alanine aminotransferase were associated with differential HbA 1c outcome with SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies. The median age of participants was 62·0 years (IQR 55·0-70·0). 10 016 (37·3%) were women and 16 861 (62·7%) were men. An algorithm based on these five features identified a subgroup, representing around four in ten CPRD patients, with a 5 mmol/mol or greater observed benefit with SGLT2 inhibitors in all validation cohorts (CPRD 8·8 mmol/mol [95% CI 7·8-9·8]; CANTATA-D and CANTATA-D2 trials 5·8 mmol/mol [3·9-7·7]; BI1245.20 trial 6·6 mmol/mol [2·2-11·0]). In CPRD, predicted differential HbA 1c response with SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies was not associated with weight change. Overall treatment discontinuation within 6 months was similar in patients predicted to have an HbA 1c benefit with SGLT2 inhibitors over DPP-4 inhibitors (median 15·2% [13·2-20·3] vs 14·4% [12·9-16·7]). A smaller subgroup predicted to have greater HbA 1c reduction with DPP-4 inhibitors were twice as likely to discontinue SGLT2 inhibitors than DPP-4 inhibitors (median 26·8% [23·4-31·0] vs 14·8% [12·9-16·8])., Interpretation: A validated treatment selection algorithm for SGLT2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor therapies can support decisions on optimal treatment for people with type 2 diabetes., Funding: BHF-Turing Cardiovascular Data Science Award and the UK Medical Research Council., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests JMD is supported by an independent fellowship funded by the UK Research and Innovation Expanding Excellence in England. APM received research funding from Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca. BAM is an employee of the Wellcome Trust; holds an honorary post at the Alan Turing Institute and University College London; and declares payments from the Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant EP/N510129/). ASJV declares support from the University of Warwick, University of Kaiserslautern, and German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence; consulting fees from PUMAS; stock from Freshflow; and grant funding from The Alan Turing Institute (EP/N510129), Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology. WEH declares a grant from IQVIA and support from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration South West Peninsula. ERP declares personal fees from Sanofi, Illumina, and Lilly. RRH reports research support from AstraZeneca, Bayer, and MSD; and personal fees from Anji Pharmaceuticals, Bayer, Novartis, and Novo Nordisk. NS declares personal fees from Abbott Diagnostics, Afimmune, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Hanmi Pharmaceuticals, MSD, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, and Sanofi; and grants from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Novartis, and Roche Diagnostics. ATH and BMS are supported by the NIHR Exeter Clinical Research Facility. AGJ was supported by an NIHR Clinician Scientist fellowship (CS-2015–15–018) and declares research funding from the UK Medical Research Council, Diabetes UK (charity), Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation (charity), and the European Foundation for the Study of Diabetes (charity). Representatives from GSK, Takeda, Janssen, Quintiles, AstraZeneca, and Sanofi attend meetings as part of the industry group involved with the MASTERMIND consortium. All declarations are outside of this study., (Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Aims: Elevated fasting blood glucose in gestational diabetes (GDM) is a key predictor of high birthweight babies and adverse pregnancy outcomes but is hard to treat. We implemented a simple, patient-led, insulin dose titration algorithm aiming to improve fasting glycaemic control in GDM., Methods: In women with GDM, initiating basal insulin, we recommended a daily four-unit dose increase after every fasting glucose value ≥5.0 mmol/mol (90 mg/dl). This approach augmented our pre-existing intensive (weekly) specialist nursing input. Using a before-and-after retrospective observational study design, we examined insulin doses and glucose values at 36 weeks gestation and maternal and neonatal outcomes in 105 women completing pregnancy before and 93 women after the intervention., Results: The baseline characteristics of women in the before and after groups were the same. Women initiated on insulin after implementation (n = 30 before, n = 43 after) achieved substantially higher doses at 36 weeks (53 vs. 36 units/day; 0.56 vs. 0.37 units/kg/day; p = 0.027). 36-week mean fasting glucose was lower in those on insulin after implementation (4.6 vs. 5.1 mmol/L [83 vs. 92 mg/dl]; p = 0.031). Birthweight was significantly reduced (birthweight Z-scores 0.34 vs. 0.92; p = 0.005). There was no significant difference in macrosomia (after; 2% vs. before; 17% p = 0.078) or caesarean sections (after; 33% vs. before; 47%; p = 0.116). No women experienced severe hypoglycaemia. There were no outcome differences before versus after intervention in women not treated with insulin., Conclusions: Patient-led daily insulin titration in gestational diabetes leads to higher insulin dose use lower fasting glucose and is associated with lower birthweight without causing significant hypoglycaemia., (© 2022 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.)

Objectives: To determine whether the previously described trend of improving mortality in people with coronavirus disease 2019 in critical care during the first wave was maintained, plateaued, or reversed during the second wave in United Kingdom, when B117 became the dominant strain., Design: National retrospective cohort study., Setting: All English hospital trusts (i.e., groups of hospitals functioning as single operational units), reporting critical care admissions (high dependency unit and ICU) to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Hospitalization in England Surveillance System., Patients: A total of 49,862 (34,336 high dependency unit and 15,526 ICU) patients admitted between March 1, 2020, and January 31, 2021 (inclusive)., Interventions: Not applicable., Measurements and Main Results: The primary outcome was inhospital 28-day mortality by calendar month of admission, from March 2020 to January 2021. Unadjusted mortality was estimated, and Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted mortality, controlling for age, sex, ethnicity, major comorbidities, social deprivation, geographic location, and operational strain (using bed occupancy as a proxy). Mortality fell to trough levels in June 2020 (ICU: 22.5% [95% CI, 18.2-27.4], high dependency unit: 8.0% [95% CI, 6.4-9.6]) but then subsequently increased up to January 2021: (ICU: 30.6% [95% CI, 29.0-32.2] and high dependency unit, 16.2% [95% CI, 15.3-17.1]). Comparing patients admitted during June-September 2020 with those admitted during December 2020-January 2021, the adjusted mortality was 59% (CI range, 39-82) higher in high dependency unit and 88% (CI range, 62-118) higher in ICU for the later period. This increased mortality was seen in all subgroups including those under 65., Conclusions: There was a marked deterioration in outcomes for patients admitted to critical care at the peak of the second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 in United Kingdom (December 2020-January 2021), compared with the post-first-wave period (June 2020-September 2020). The deterioration was independent of recorded patient characteristics and occupancy levels. Further research is required to determine to what extent this deterioration reflects the impact of the B117 variant of concern., Competing Interests: Drs. Dennis and Mateen’s institutions received funding from Diabetes UK. Dr. Dennis received support for article research from Diabetes UK. Dr. McGovern’s institution received funding from Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca. Drs. Thomas and Mateen received support for article research from Wellcome Trust/Charities Open Access Fund. Dr. Thomas disclosed that he is a Wellcome funded PhD student. Dr. Vollmer received funding from IQVIA; he received support for article research from Research Councils UK. Dr. Mateen disclosed that he is an employee of Wellcome Trust and holds a Wellcome funded honorary post at University College London for the purposes of carrying out independent research; the views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of the Wellcome Trust. Dr. Dennis is supported by a Research England’s Expanding Excellence in England Independent Fellowship. Mr. Wilde is supported by the Feuer International Scholarship in Artificial Intelligence. Drs. Vollmer and Mateen are supported by The Alan Turing Institute (Engineering and Physical Science Research Council grant EP/N510129/). Dr. Vollmer is supported by the University of Warwick Impact Acceleration Account funding. Dr. Thomas is funded by a Wellcome funded GW4 Clinical Academic Training programme (GW4-CAT) PhD Fellowship (220601/Z/20/Z). Dr. Wilde has disclosed that he does not have any potential conflicts of interest., (Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the Society of Critical Care Medicine and Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Objectives: To describe the relationship between reported serious operational problems (SOPs), and mortality for patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units (ICUs)., Design: English national retrospective cohort study., Setting: 89 English hospital trusts (i.e. small groups of hospitals functioning as single operational units)., Patients: All adults with COVID-19 admitted to ICU between 2nd April and 1st December, 2020 (n = 6,737)., Interventions: N/A., Main Outcomes and Measures: Hospital trusts routinely submit declarations of whether they have experienced 'serious operational problems' in the last 24 hours (e.g. due to staffing issues, adverse weather conditions, etc.). Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate the association between in-hospital mortality (binary outcome) and: 1) an indicator for whether a SOP occurred on the date of a patient's admission, and; 2) the proportion of the days in a patient's stay that had a SOP occur within their trust. These models were adjusted for individual demographic characteristics (age, sex, ethnicity), and recorded comorbidities., Results: Serious operational problems (SOPs) were common; reported in 47 trusts (52.8%) and were present for 2,701 (of 21,716; 12.4%) trust days. Overall mortality was 37.7% (2,539 deaths). Admission during a period of SOPs was associated with a substantially increased mortality; adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.34 (95% posterior credible interval (PCI): 1.07 to 1.68). Mortality was also associated with the proportion of a patient's admission duration that had concurrent SOPs; OR 1.47 (95% PCI: 1.10 to 1.96) for mortality where SOPs were present for 100% compared to 0% of the stay., Conclusion and Relevance: Serious operational problems at the trust-level are associated with a significant increase in mortality in patients with COVID-19 admitted to critical care. The link isn't necessarily causal, but this observation justifies further research to determine if a binary indicator might be a valid prognostic marker for deteriorating quality of care., Competing Interests: SJV declares previous funding from IQVIA, unrelated to this work. APM declares previous research funding from Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca; all unrelated to this work. BAM is an employee of the Wellcome Trust, and holds a Wellcome funded honorary post at University College London for the purposes of carrying out independent research; the views expressed in this manuscript do not necessarily reflect the views or position of the Wellcome Trust. There are no patents, products in development or marketed products to declare. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Purpose: Some classes of glucose-lowering medications, including sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) and glucagon-like peptide 1-receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) have cardio-protective benefit, but it is unclear whether this influences prescribing in the United Kingdom (UK). This study aims to describe class-level prescribing in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) by cardiovascular disease (CVD) history using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)., Methods: Four cross-sections of people with T2DM aged 18-90 and registered with their general practice for >1 year on 1st January 2017 (n = 166,012), 1st January 2018 (n = 155,290), 1st January 2019 (n = 152,602) and 31st December 2019 (n = 143,373) were identified. Age-standardised proportions for class use through time were calculated separately in those with and without CVD history and by total number of medications prescribed (one, two, three, four+). An analysis by UK country was also performed., Findings: Around 31% of patients had CVD history at each cross-section. Metformin was the most common treatment (>70% of those with and without CVD had prescriptions across all treatment lines). Overall use of SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs was low, with slightly less use in patients with CVD (SGLT2i: 9.8% and 13.8% in those with and without CVD respectively; GLP1-RA: 4.3% and 4.9%, December 2019). Use of SGLT2is as part of dual therapy was low but rose throughout the study. In January 2017, estimated use was 8.0% (95% CI 6.9-9.1%) and 8.9% (8.6-9.3%) in those with and without CVD. By December 2019 this reached 18.3% (17.0-19.5%) and 21.2% (20.6-21.7%) for those with and without CVD respectively. SGLT2i use as triple therapy increased: 22.7% (21.0-24.4%) and 25.9% (25.2-26.6%) in January 2017 to 41.3% (39.5-43.0%) and 45.5% (44.7-46.3%) in December 2019. GLP1-RA use also increased, but observed usage remained lower than SGLT2 inhibitors. Insulin use remained stable throughout, with higher use observed in those with CVD (16% vs 9.7% Dec 2019). Time trends in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland were similar, although class prevalence varied., Implications: Although use of SGLT2is and GLP1-RAs has increased, overall usage remains low with slightly lower use in those with CVD history, suggesting there is opportunity to optimise use of these medicines in T2DM patients to manage CVD risk. Insulin use was substantially more prevalent in those with CVD despite no evidence of CVD benefit. Further investigation of factors influencing this finding may highlight strategies to improve patient access to the most appropriate treatments, including those with evidence of cardiovascular benefit., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To measure temporal trends in survival over time in people with severe coronavirus disease 2019 requiring critical care (high dependency unit or ICU) management, and to assess whether temporal variation in mortality was explained by changes in patient demographics and comorbidity burden over time., Design: Retrospective observational cohort; based on data reported to the COVID-19 Hospitalisation in England Surveillance System. The primary outcome was in-hospital 30-day all-cause mortality. Unadjusted survival was estimated by calendar week of admission, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted survival, controlling for age, sex, ethnicity, major comorbidities, and geographical region., Setting: One hundred eight English critical care units., Patients: All adult (18 yr +) coronavirus disease 2019 specific critical care admissions between March 1, 2020, and June 27, 2020., Interventions: Not applicable., Measurements and Main Results: Twenty-one thousand eighty-two critical care patients (high dependency unit n = 15,367; ICU n = 5,715) were included. Unadjusted survival at 30 days was lowest for people admitted in late March in both high dependency unit (71.6% survival) and ICU (58.0% survival). By the end of June, survival had improved to 92.7% in high dependency unit and 80.4% in ICU. Improvements in survival remained after adjustment for patient characteristics (age, sex, ethnicity, and major comorbidities) and geographical region., Conclusions: There has been a substantial improvement in survival amongst people admitted to critical care with coronavirus disease 2019 in England, with markedly higher survival rates in people admitted in May and June compared with those admitted in March and April. Our analysis suggests this improvement is not due to temporal changes in the age, sex, ethnicity, or major comorbidity burden of admitted patients., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the Society of Critical Care Medicine and Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Objective: To describe the relationship between type 2 diabetes and all-cause mortality among adults with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the critical care setting., Research Design and Methods: This was a nationwide retrospective cohort study in people admitted to hospital in England with COVID-19 requiring admission to a high dependency unit (HDU) or intensive care unit (ICU) between 1 March 2020 and 27 July 2020. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate 30-day in-hospital all-cause mortality associated with type 2 diabetes, with adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, obesity, and other major comorbidities (chronic respiratory disease, asthma, chronic heart disease, hypertension, immunosuppression, chronic neurological disease, chronic renal disease, and chronic liver disease)., Results: A total of 19,256 COVID-19-related HDU and ICU admissions were included in the primary analysis, including 13,809 HDU (mean age 70 years) and 5,447 ICU (mean age 58 years) admissions. Of those admitted, 3,524 (18.3%) had type 2 diabetes and 5,077 (26.4%) died during the study period. Patients with type 2 diabetes were at increased risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.23 [95% CI 1.14, 1.32]), and this result was consistent in HDU and ICU subsets. The relative mortality risk associated with type 2 diabetes decreased with higher age (age 18-49 years aHR 1.50 [95% CI 1.05, 2.15], age 50-64 years 1.29 [1.10, 1.51], and age ≥65 years 1.18 [1.09, 1.29]; P value for age-type 2 diabetes interaction = 0.002)., Conclusions: Type 2 diabetes may be an independent prognostic factor for survival in people with severe COVID-19 requiring critical care treatment, and in this setting the risk increase associated with type 2 diabetes is greatest in younger people., (© 2020 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Introduction: To identify risk factors, absolute risk, and impact on treatment discontinuation of genital infections with sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i)., Research Design and Methods: We assessed the relationship between baseline characteristics and genital infection in 21 004 people with type 2 diabetes initiating SGLT2i and 55 471 controls initiating dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) in a UK primary care database. We assessed absolute risk of infection in those with key risk factors and the association between early genital infection and treatment discontinuation., Results: Genital infection was substantially more common in those treated with SGLT2i (8.1% within 1 year) than DPP4i (1.8%). Key predictors of infection with SGLT2i were female sex (HR 3.64; 95% CI 3.23 to 4.11) and history of genital infection; <1 year before initiation (HR 4.38; 3.73 to 5.13), 1-5 years (HR 3.04; 2.64 to 3.51), and >5 years (HR 1.79; 1.55 to 2.07). Baseline HbA 1c was not associated with infection risk for SGLT2i, in contrast to DPP4i where risk increased with higher HbA 1c . One-year absolute risk of genital infection with SGLT2i was highest for those with a history of prior infection (females 23.7%, males 12.1%), compared with those without (females 10.8%, males 2.7%). Early genital infection was associated with a similar discontinuation risk for SGLT2i (HR 1.48; 1.21-1.80) and DPP4i (HR 1.58; 1.21-2.07)., Conclusions: Female sex and history of prior infection are simple features that can identify subgroups at greatly increased risk of genital infections with SGLT2i therapy. These data can be used to risk-stratify patients. High HbA 1c is not a risk factor for genital infections with SGLT2i., Competing Interests: Competing interests: APM declares research support from Eli Lilly and Company, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca. NAS has consulted or been on speakers bureaus for Amgen, Astrazeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, Janssen, Eli-Lilly, Novo Nordisk, NAPP pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, and Sanofi and received grant support from Boehringer Ingelheim. ERP declares personal fees from Eli Lilly and Company, Novo Nordisk, and AstraZeneca. RRH reports research support from AstraZeneca, Bayer and Merck Sharp & Dohme, and personal fees from Bayer, Intarcia, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, and Novo Nordisk. AGJ is the guarantor of this work and, as such, had full access to all the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Aim: To describe population-level time trends in prescribing patterns of type 2 diabetes therapy, and in short-term clinical outcomes (glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c], weight, blood pressure, hypoglycaemia and treatment discontinuation) after initiating new therapy., Materials and Methods: We studied 81 532 people with type 2 diabetes initiating a first- to fourth-line drug in primary care between 2010 and 2017 inclusive in United Kingdom electronic health records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). Trends in new prescriptions and subsequent 6- and 12-month adjusted changes in glycaemic response (reduction in HbA1c), weight, blood pressure and rates of hypoglycaemia and treatment discontinuation were examined., Results: Use of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors as second-line therapy near doubled (41% of new prescriptions in 2017 vs. 22% in 2010), replacing sulphonylureas as the most common second-line drug (29% in 2017 vs. 53% in 2010). Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors, introduced in 2013, comprised 17% of new first- to fourth-line prescriptions by 2017. First-line use of metformin remained stable (91% of new prescriptions in 2017 vs. 91% in 2010). Over the study period there was little change in average glycaemic response and in the proportion of people discontinuing treatment. There was a modest reduction in weight after initiating second- and third-line therapy (improvement in weight change 2017 vs. 2010 for second-line therapy: -1.5 kg, 95% confidence interval [CI] -1.9, -1.1; P < 0.001), and a slight reduction in systolic blood pressure after initiating first-, second- and third-line therapy (improvement in systolic blood pressure change 2017 vs. 2010 range: -1.7 to -2.1 mmHg; all P < 0.001). Hypoglycaemia rates decreased over time with second-line therapy (incidence rate ratio 0.94 per year, 95% CI 0.88, 1.00; P = 0.04), mirroring the decline in use of sulphonylureas., Conclusions: Recent changes in prescribing of therapy for people with type 2 diabetes have not led to a change in glycaemic response and have resulted in modest improvements in other population-level short-term clinical outcomes., (© 2019 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are common comorbidities. COPD is a known risk factor for incident T2DM, however few studies have examined the relationship in reverse. The primary aim of this study was to compare the incidence of COPD in people with and without T2DM., Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective case-control study using a long-established English general practice network database (n=894,646). We matched 29,217 cases of T2DM with controls, adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, BMI and social deprivation, to achieve 1:1 propensity matching and compared the rate of incident COPD over eight years of follow-up. We performed a secondary analysis to investigate the effect of insulin, metformin and sulphonylureas on COPD incidence., Results: People with T2DM had a reduced risk of COPD compared to matched controls over the follow-up period (HR 0.89, 95%CI 0.79-0.93). 48.5% of those with T2DM were ex-smokers compared with 27.3% of those without T2DM. Active smoking rates were 20.4% and 23.7% respectively. Insulin, metformin and sulphonylureas were not associated with incident COPD., Conclusions: People with T2DM are less likely to be diagnosed with COPD than matched controls. This may be due to positive lifestyle changes, such as smoking cessation in those with T2DM., (Copyright © 2018 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: This study was conducted to describe the incidence of diabetes following pancreatic disease, assess how these patients are classified by clinicians, and compare clinical characteristics with type 1 and type 2 diabetes., Research Design and Methods: Primary care records in England ( n = 2,360,631) were searched for incident cases of adult-onset diabetes between 1 January 2005 and 31 March 2016. We examined demographics, diabetes classification, glycemic control, and insulin use in those with and without pancreatic disease (subcategorized into acute pancreatitis or chronic pancreatic disease) before diabetes diagnosis. Regression analysis was used to control for baseline potential risk factors for poor glycemic control (HbA 1c ≥7% [53 mmol/mol]) and insulin requirement., Results: We identified 31,789 new diagnoses of adult-onset diabetes. Diabetes following pancreatic disease (2.59 [95% CI 2.38-2.81] per 100,000 person-years) was more common than type 1 diabetes (1.64 [1.47-1.82]; P < 0.001). The 559 cases of diabetes following pancreatic disease were mostly classified by clinicians as type 2 diabetes (87.8%) and uncommonly as diabetes of the exocrine pancreas (2.7%). Diabetes following pancreatic disease was diagnosed at a median age of 59 years and BMI of 29.2 kg/m 2 . Diabetes following pancreatic disease was associated with poor glycemic control (adjusted odds ratio, 1.7 [1.3-2.2]; P < 0.001) compared with type 2 diabetes. Insulin use within 5 years was 4.1% (3.8-4.4) with type 2 diabetes, 20.9% (14.6-28.9) with diabetes following acute pancreatitis, and 45.8% (34.2-57.9) with diabetes following chronic pancreatic disease., Conclusions: Diabetes of the exocrine pancreas is frequently labeled type 2 diabetes but has worse glycemic control and a markedly greater requirement for insulin., (© 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Aims: To describe the proportion of glucose tests with unrecorded provenance in routine primary care data and identify the impact on clinical practice., Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted of blood glucose measurements from the Royal College of General Practitioner Research and Surveillance Centre database, which includes primary care records from >100 practices across England and Wales. All blood glucose results recorded during 2013 were identified. Tests were grouped by provenance (fasting, oral glucose tolerance test, random, none specified and other). A clinical audit in a single primary care practice was also performed to identify the impact of failing to record glucose provenance on diabetes diagnosis., Results: A total of 2 137 098 people were included in the cross-sectional analysis. Of 203 350 recorded glucose measurements the majority (117 893; 58%) did not have any provenance information. The most commonly reported provenance was fasting glucose (75 044; 37%). The distribution of glucose values where provenance was not recorded was most similar to that of fasting samples. The glucose measurements of 256 people with diabetes in the audit practice (size 11 514 people) were analysed. The initial glucose measurement had no provenance information in 164 cases (64.1%). A clinician questioned the provenance of a result in 41 cases (16.0%); of these, 14 (34.1%) required repeating. Lack of provenance led to delays in the diagnosis of diabetes [median (range) 30 (3-614) days]., Conclusions: The recording of glucose provenance in UK primary care could be improved. Failure to record provenance causes unnecessary repeated testing, delayed diagnosis and wasted clinician time., (© 2016 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.)

Background: Physician associates, known internationally as physician assistants, are a mid-level practitioner, well established in the United States of America but new to the United Kingdom. A small number work in primary care under the supervision of general practitioners, where they most commonly see patients requesting same day appointments for new problems. As an adjunct to larger study, we investigated the quality of the patient consultation of physician associates in comparison to that of general practitioners., Method: We conducted a comparative observational study using video recordings of consultations by volunteer physician associates and general practitioners with consenting patients in single surgery sessions. Recordings were assessed by experienced general practitioners, blinded to the type of the consulting practitioner, using the Leicester Assessment Package. Assessors were asked to comment on the safety of the recorded consultations and to attempt to identify the type of practitioner. Ratings were compared across practitioner type, alongside the number of presenting complaints discussed in each consultation and the number of these which were acute, minor, or regarding a chronic condition., Results: We assessed 62 consultations (41 general practitioner and 21 physician associates) from five general practitioners and four physician associates. All consultations were assessed as safe; but general practitioners were rated higher than PAs in all elements of consultation. The general practitioners were more likely than physician associates to see people with multiple presenting complaints (p<0.0001) and with chronic disease related complaints (p = 0.008). Assessors correctly identified general practitioner consultations but not physician associates. The Leicester Assessment Package had limited inter-rater and intra-rater reliability., Conclusions: The physician associate consultations were with a less complex patient group. They were judged as competent and safe, although general practitioner consultations, unsurprisingly, were rated as more competent. Physician associates offer a complementary addition to the medical workforce in general practice., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction: Renal function is reported using the estimates of glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). However, eGFR values are recorded without reference to the particular serum creatinine (SCr) assays used to derive them, and newer assays were introduced at different time points across the laboratories in the United Kingdom. These changes may cause systematic bias in eGFR reported in routinely collected data, even though laboratory-reported eGFR values have a correction factor applied., Design: An algorithm to detect changes in SCr that in turn affect eGFR calculation method was developed. It compares the mapping of SCr values on to eGFR values across a time series of paired eGFR and SCr measurements., Setting: Routinely collected primary care data from 20,000 people with the richest renal function data from the quality improvement in chronic kidney disease trial., Results: The algorithm identified a change in eGFR calculation method in 114 (90%) of the 127 included practices. This change was identified in 4736 (23.7%) patient time series analysed. This change in calibration method was found to cause a significant step change in the reported eGFR values, producing a systematic bias. The eGFR values could not be recalibrated by applying the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation to the laboratory reported SCr values., Conclusions: This algorithm can identify laboratory changes in eGFR calculation methods and changes in SCr assay. Failure to account for these changes may misconstrue renal function changes over time. Researchers using routine eGFR data should account for these effects.

Background: Recording concerns about child maltreatment, including minor concerns, is recommended by the General Medical Council (GMC) and National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) but there is evidence of substantial under-recording., Aim: To determine whether a simple coding strategy improved recording of maltreatment-related concerns in electronic primary care records., Design and Setting: Clinical audit of rates of maltreatment-related coding before January 2010-December 2011 and after January-December 2012 implementation of a simple coding strategy in 11 English family practices. The strategy included encouraging general practitioners to use, always and as a minimum, the Read code 'Child is cause for concern'. A total of 25,106 children aged 0-18 years were registered with these practices. We also undertook a qualitative service evaluation to investigate barriers to recording., Method: Outcomes were recording of 1) any maltreatment-related codes, 2) child protection proceedings and 3) child was a cause for concern., Results: We found increased recording of any maltreatment-related code (rate ratio 1.4; 95% CI 1.1-1.6), child protection procedures (RR 1.4; 95% CI 1.1-1.6) and cause for concern (RR 2.5; 95% CI 1.8-3.4) after implementation of the coding strategy. Clinicians cited the simplicity of the coding strategy as the most important factor assisting implementation., Conclusion: This simple coding strategy improved clinician's recording of maltreatment-related concerns in a small sample of practices with some 'buy-in'. Further research should investigate how recording can best support the doctor-patient relationship. HOW THIS FITS IN: Recording concerns about child maltreatment, including minor concerns, is recommended by the General Medical Council (GMC) and National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), but there is evidence of substantial under-recording. We describe a simple clinical coding strategy that helped general practitioners to improve recording of maltreatment-related concerns. These improvements could improve case finding of children at risk and information sharing.

Background: Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) causes progressive renal damage and is a leading cause of end-stage renal failure. With emerging therapies it is important to devise a method for early detection. We aimed to identify factors from routine clinical data which can be used to distinguish people with a high likelihood of having ADPKD in a primary health care setting., Method: A cross-sectional study was undertaken using data from the Quality Intervention in Chronic Kidney Disease trial extracted from 127 primary care practices in England. The health records of 255 people with ADPKD were compared to the general population. Logistic regression was used to identify clinical features which distinguish ADPKD. These clinical features were used to stratify individual risk using a risk score tool., Results: Renal impairment, proteinuria, haematuria, a diastolic blood pressure over 90 mmHg and multiple antihypertensive medications were more common in ADPKD than the general population and were used to build a regression model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; 0.79). Age, gender, haemoglobin and urinary tract infections were not associated with ADPKD. A risk score (range -3 to +10) of ≥0 gave a sensitivity of 70.2% and specificity 74.9% of for detection., Conclusions: Stratification of ADPKD likelihood from routine data may be possible. This approach could be a valuable component of future screening programs although further longitudinal analyses are needed.

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a known risk factor for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. We investigate the relationship between CKD stage, proteinuria, hypertension and these adverse outcomes in the people with diabetes. We also study the outcomes of people who did not have monitoring of renal function., Methods: A cohort of people with type 1 and 2 diabetes (N = 35,502) from the Quality Improvement in Chronic Kidney Disease (QICKD) cluster randomised trial was followed up over 2.5 years. A composite of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and end stage renal failure comprised the outcome measure. A multilevel logistic regression model was used to determine correlates with this outcome. Known cardiovascular and renal risk factors were adjusted for., Results: Proteinuria and reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were independently associated with adverse outcomes in people with diabetes. People with an eGFR < 60 ml/min, proteinuria, and hypertension have the greatest odds ratio (OR) of adverse outcome; 1.58 (95% CI 1.36-1.83). Renal function was not monitored in 4460 (12.6%) people. Unmonitored renal function was associated with adverse events; OR 1.35 (95% CI 1.13-1.63) in people with hypertension and OR 1.32 (95% CI 1.07-1.64) in those without., Conclusions: Proteinuria, eGFR < 60 ml/min, and failure to monitor renal function are associated with cardiovascular and renal events and mortality in people with diabetes.

Background: Serum phosphate is a known risk factor for cardiovascular events and mortality in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD), however data on the association of these outcomes with serum phosphate in the general population are scarce. We investigate this relationship in people with and without CKD in a large community-based population., Methods: Three groups from an adult cohort of the Quality Improvement in Chronic Kidney Disease (QICKD) cluster randomised trial (ISRCTN56023731) were followed over a period of 2.5 years: people with normal renal function (N = 24,184), people with CKD stages 1-2 (N = 20,356), and people with CKD stages 3-5 (N = 13,292). We used a multilevel logistic regression model to determine the association between serum phosphate, in these groups, and a composite outcome of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and advanced coronary artery disease. We adjusted for known cardiovascular risk factors., Findings: Higher phosphate levels were found to correlate with increased cardiovascular risk. In people with normal renal function and CKD stages 1-2, Phosphate levels between 1.25 and 1.50 mmol/l were associated with increased cardiovascular events; odds ratio (OR) 1.36 (95% CI 1.06-1.74; p = 0.016) in people with normal renal function and OR 1.40 (95% CI 1.09-1.81; p = 0.010) in people with CKD stages 1-2. Hypophosphatemia (<0.75 mmol/l) was associated with fewer cardiovascular events in people with normal renal function; OR 0.59 (95% CI 0.36-0.97; p = 0.049). In people with CKD stages 3-5, hyperphosphatemia (>1.50 mmol/l) was associated with increased cardiovascular risk; OR 2.34 (95% CI 1.64-3.32; p<0.001). Other phosphate ranges were not found to have a significant impact on cardiovascular events in people with CKD stages 3-5., Conclusions: Serum phosphate is associated with cardiovascular events in people with and without CKD. Further research is required to determine the mechanisms underlying these associations.

Recent advances have highlighted the central role of DNA methylation in leukemogenesis and have led to clinical trials of epigenetic therapy, notably hypomethylating agents, in myelodysplasia and acute myeloid leukemia. However, despite these advances, our understanding of the dynamic regulation of the methylome remains poor. We have attempted to address this shortcoming by producing a dynamic, six-compartmental model of DNA methylation levels based on the activity of the Dnmt methyltransferase proteins. In addition, the model incorporates the recently discovered Tet family proteins which enzymatically convert methylcytosine to hydroxymethylcytosine. A set of first order, partial differential equations comprise the model and were solved via numerical integration. The model is able to predict the relative abundances of unmethylated, hemimethylated, fully methylated, and hydroxymethylated CpG dyads in the DNA of cells with fully functional Dnmt and Tet proteins. In addition, the model accurately predicts the experimentally measured changes in these abundances with disruption of Dnmt function. Furthermore, the model reveals the mechanism whereby CpG islands are maintained in a hypomethylated state via local modulation of Dnmt and Tet activities without any requirement for active demethylation. We conclude that this model provides an accurate depiction of the major epigenetic processes involving modification of DNA., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)