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Glacier evolution over the past century is, in part, caused by prior changes in the climate, resulting from both internal variability in the climate system and changes in external forcings. Therefore, the focus in this study is on the last millennium, to gain more insight into the build-up of the little ice age and the following glacier retreat. The role of the individual climate forcings (volcanic, greenhouse gasses (GHG), orbital, land cover and land use change (LULCC), solar and anthropogenically induced ozone and aerosols) is addressed through simulations with the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), using climate time series from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) as forcing. Our study is novel in both experimental set-up and in that it is the first global glacier attribution study on this time scale, simulating more than a small selection of glaciers.How a glacier evolves is dependent on the state the glacier is in and on the climate. We take both these aspects into consideration in our global glacier last millennium attribution study. Instead of letting the glaciers freely evolve in the attribution experiments, we prescribe the glacier geometry based on a factual case, in order to avoid mass change being attributed based on the wrong glacier state (e.g. a glacier that has disappeared instead of an existing glacier). To create a factual case, the Last Millennium Re-analysis (LMR) is used as forcing in OGGM. This has the additional benefit that it gives the opportunity to address spin-up issues, as the LMR starts in 0 CE and the CESM-LME 850 years later.Finally, the preliminary results show that changes in the volcanic forcing had a relatively minor role on the long term global glacier evolution over the last millennium. Instead LULCC and orbital forcing seem to have had a significant influence leading up to the little ice age maximum extent, and the GHG to the recent glacier retreat. Without anthropogenic forcing the glaciers would still be growing instead of retreating, as a result of GHG emissions.

Paleoclimate proxy records from the North Atlantic region reveal substantially greater multi-centennial temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the current interglacial. As there was no obvious change in external forcing, causes for the increased variability remain unknown. Here we provide a mechanism for enhanced multi-centennial North Atlantic climate variability during the LGM based on experiments with the coupled climate model CESM. The model simulates an internal mode of multi-centennial variability, which is associated with variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In accordance with high-resolution proxy records from the glacial North Atlantic, this mode induces highest surface temperature variability in subpolar and mid latitudes and almost no variance in low latitudes. Greenland surface air temperature varies by up to 4°C, which is in line with multi-centennial variability reconstructed from ice cores. We show that this mode is based on a salt-oscillator mechanism and emerges only under full LGM climate forcing. Moderate deviations from full-glacial boundary conditions lead to its disappearance. We further argue that the multi-centennial mode has to be distinguished from millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations.

The interglacial period spanning ca. 423 to 398 ka and known as Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11c has been the subject of much study, due largely to the unique evolution of global temperatures, greenhouse gas levels, and sea levels relative to other interglacials of the late Pleistocene. Particularly concerning is some geological evidence and prior modeling studies which have suggested that a large majority of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) disappeared during this period, despite global mean air temperatures only modestly higher than those of the preindustrial period. However, uncertainty is high as to the extent and spatiotemporal evolution of this melt due to a dearth of direct geological constraints. Our study therefore endeavors to better constrain these large uncertainties by using spatiotemporally interpolated climate forcing from CESM v1.2 time slice simulations and an ensemble of ice sheet model parameter vectors derived from a GrIS history matching over the most recent glacial cycle from the Glacial Systems Model (GSM). The use of different ice sheet initialization states from simulations of the previous glacial-interglacial transition helps to capture the large initial condition uncertainty. Two different regional present-day climate modeling datasets are utilized for anomaly correction of CESM precipitation and temperature fields. Preliminary analysis indicates that the most robust retreat across most ensemble members happens in the northern, western, and central portions of the ice sheet, while the higher terrain of the south and east retain substantial amounts of ice. This is broadly consistent with indications that ice may have survived the MIS-11c interglacial at the Summit ice core location, but not at DYE-3. Simulations indicate a maximum MIS-11c sea level contribution from the GrIS centered between 408 and 403 ka, with minimum GrIS volumes reaching between 25% and 70% of modern-day values. In part due to the prior constraint of ice-sheet model ensemble parameters from history matching, ensemble parameters controlling downscaling and climate forcing bias correction are the largest parametric sources of output variance in our simulations. Though CESM uncertainties are unassessed in this study, it is likely they dominate given that the choice of present-day reference temperature climatology for anomaly correction of the climate model output has the largest effect on the GrIS melt response in our simulations.

The AMOC has undergone abrupt and quasi-periodic changes during the MIS-3. The prevailing background climatic conditions that produce such behavior in AMOC have yet to be fully understood. Previous studies have demonstrated that some climate models tend to have an oscillatory behavior in their AMOC under specific conditions that vary from model to model. A systematic study that compares these conditions across models is missing. Moreover, the relative impact of greenhouse gas and icesheet forcings on the mean strength of AMOC remain unresolved. Here, we present our results from CMIP/PMIP style simulations with MIS-3 boundary conditions. This study has been carried out under the PalMOD project. Based on the minimum and maximum ice sheet extent and greenhouse gas radiative forcing, we carried out a set of 4 experiments. These experiments are the LGM, 38ka, LGM_38kaghg (LGM topography with 38ka greenhouse gas concentrations), and 38ka_LGMghg (38ka topography with LGM greenhouse gas concentrations). We have used two Earth system models (ESM), Viz. the MPI-ESM and the CESM. The experiments in MPI-ESM were carried out with two versions of the river run-off directions - one in which run-off directions are compatible with the topography and the other where run-off directions are set to that of the modern-day. Thus, we have three sets of simulations for each experiment. A robust feature across these simulations is that during the MIS-3, the mean strength of AMOC is sensitive to changes in greenhouse gases, and the changes in ice sheets do not significantly affect the AMOC. The density of water in the North Atlantic Deep-Water formation (NADW) region does not change significantly in response to these forcings. However, the variations in the density in the Arctic and Southern Ocean deep-water formation region drive variations in AMOC strength. The AMOC in CESM undergoes Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) like oscillations in the 38ka LGMghg simulation. No oscillations are found in any MPI-ESM experiments with the run-off adapted for topography. However, Bo-like oscillations appear in the LGM simulation with modern run-off. This highlights the importance of model parameters and the location of freshwater input into the ocean in determining the conditions that lead to oscillatory behavior in AMOC.

The unique alignment of orbital precession and obliquity during the Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11) interglacial produced perhaps the longest period of planetary warmth above preindustrial conditions in the past 800 kyr. Reconstructions point to a significantly reduced Greenland ice sheet volume during this period as a result, although the remaining extent and volume of the ice sheet are poorly constrained. A series of time slice simulations across MIS-11 using a coupled climate model indicates that boreal summer was particularly warm around Greenland and the high latitudes of the Atlantic sector for a period of at least 20 kyr. This state of reduced atmospheric baroclinicity, coupled with an enhanced and poleward-shifted intertropical convergence zone and North African monsoon, favored weakened high-latitude winds and the emergence of a single, unified midlatitude jet stream across the North Atlantic sector during boreal summer. Consequent reductions in the lower-tropospheric meridional eddy heat flux over the North Atlantic therefore emerge as negative feedback to additional warming over Greenland. The relationship between Greenland precipitation and the state of the North Atlantic jet is less apparent, but slight changes in summer precipitation appear to be dominated by increases during the remainder of the year. Such a dynamic state is surprising, as it bears stronger resemblance to the unified-jet state postulated as typical for glacial states than to the modern-day interglacial state.

Mass loss of glaciers and ice caps has been one of the major contributors to sea-level rise over the past century. Glaciers respond slowly to a changing climate. Therefore, glacier evolution over the past century is partly a result of prior changes in the climate, resulting both from internal variability in the climate system and changes in external forcings. Here we present a simulation of global glacier evolution over the period 850-2000 CE and assess the influence that different climate forcings have on the glacier mass balance. The glacier evolution simulation thus serves as a base for the mass balance attribution experiment.The Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) was used to simulate glacier geometry and mass balance evolution of land-terminating glaciers. The dynamic simulations were forced with the full length of the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), a climate timeseries covering the period 0-2000 CE, using the first part for spin-up only. The initialization of the glacier states in 850 CE was done with a calibration procedure, making use of glaciers with a relatively short memory for initializing those with a longer one.To assess the influence of different climate forcings (volcanic, greenhouse gases (GHG), orbital, land cover and land use, solar and anthropogenic ozone and aerosols) on glacier mass balance, simulations of the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) are being used. The CESM-LME fully forced, single forced and 850 CE control simulations are used to force OGGM in climatic mass balance simulations. In those simulations the glacier geometries are prescribed with those from the LMR forced dynamic simulation, in order to avoid biases in the attribution caused by deviating glacier evolutions under the different forcings.Results show that the changes in the GHG forcing have little influence on the SMB from 850 to ~1850 CE. After that the influence becomes increasingly more negative. All other forcings that have been assessed here have positive contribution to glacier mass balance over the last millennium. Although the influence of land use and land cover change has not received a lot of attention before in this context, it has a substantial influence on global glacier mass in our simulations. However, the influence of the forcings differs strongly between regions.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is coherently linked to climate variations over many parts of the globe. Despite recent achievements, the mechanism by which the AMO influences regional precipitation over South America is not well understood. In this study, we isolate the atmospheric response to the AMO using a water isotope-enabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (iCESM1.2) and determine its influence on (sub)tropical South American regional precipitation and atmospheric circulation. The results suggest an interhemispheric seesaw in Hadley circulation strength and that the section of the Atlantic Hadley cell is marked by a stronger upward air component south of the equator during the cold AMO phase. We also find that the precipitation anomalies over (sub)tropical South America during AMO phases are mainly related to changes in the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) core strength, where in the cold (warm) AMO phase the core region strengthens (weakens) from February to July, while from July to November the core region weakens (strengthens). Our results stress the importance of acknowledging the dynamics of season- and regional-dependent ITCZ responses, as they are sufficient to produce observed AMO-related signals even in the absence of marked changes in the ITCZ position.

Despite its great ecological importance, the main factors governing tree cover in tropical savannas as well as savanna-forest boundaries are still largely unknown. Here we address this issue by investigating marine sediment records of long-chain n-alkane stable carbon (δ13Cwax) and hydrogen (δDwax) isotopes from a core collected off eastern tropical South America spanning the last ca. 45 thousand years. While δ13Cwax is a proxy for the main photosynthetic pathway of terrestrial vegetation, tracking the relative proportion of C3 (mainly trees) versus C4 (mainly grasses) plants, δDwax is a proxy for continental precipitation, tracking the intensity of rainfall. The investigated core was collected off the mouth of the São Francisco River drainage basin, a tropical savanna-dominated region with dry austral autumn, winter and spring. On top of millennial-scale changes, driven by anomalies in the amount of precipitation associated with Heinrich Stadials, we identify a marked obliquity control over the expansion and contraction of tree and grass cover. During periods of maximum (minimum) obliquity, trees (grasses) reached maximum coverage. We suggest that maximum (minimum) obliquity decreased (increased) the length of the dry season allowing (hampering) the expansion of tree-dominated vegetation. Periods of maximum obliquity induced an anomalous heating (cooling) of the summer (winter) hemisphere that in combination with a delayed response of the climate system slightly increased autumn precipitation over the São Francisco River drainage basin, through a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone towards or further into the anomalously heated hemisphere. We found that atmospheric CO2 concentration has only a secondary effect on tree cover. Our results underline the importance of the dry season length as a governing factor in the long-term control of tree cover in tropical landscapes. ISSN:0277-3791

The Caspian Sea (CS) is the largest inland lake in the world. Large variations in sea level and surface area occurred in the past and are projected for the future. The potential impacts on regional and large-scale hydroclimate are not well understood. Here, we examine the impact of CS area on climate within its catchment and across the northern hemisphere, for the first time with a fully coupled climate model. The Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) is used to simulate the climate of four scenarios: (1) larger than present CS area, (2) current area, (3) smaller than present area, and (4) no-CS scenario. The results reveal large changes in the regional atmospheric water budget. Evaporation (E) over the sea increases with increasing area, while precipitation (P) increases over the south-west CS with increasing area. P-E over the CS catchment decreases as CS surface area increases, indicating a dominant negative lake-evaporation feedback. A larger CS reduces summer surface air temperatures and increases winter temperatures. The impacts extend eastwards, where summer precipitation is enhanced over central Asia and the north-western Pacific experiences warming with reduced winter sea ice. Our results also indicate weakening of the 500-hPa troughs over the northern Pacific with larger CS area. We find a thermal response triggers a southward shift of the upper troposphere jet stream during summer. Our findings establish that changing CS area results in climate impacts of such scope that CS area variations should be incorporated into climate model simulations, including palaeo and future scenarios.\ud \ud Plain Language Summary\ud The Caspian Sea is the largest land-locked water body in the world. It is filled by rivers draining a vast region from northern Russia to Iran. The size of the Caspian Sea has varied considerably over recent centuries and millennia due to various factors, including changes in climate. Conversely, as the area of the sea changes it also has impacts on the climate, but there are significant questions about how and where those impacts would be felt. In this study we used a state-of-the-art climate model in which we specified different sizes of Caspian Sea in order to examine how the climate changes as its area increases. We observed that the local seasonal cycle of temperatures gets smaller, and evaporation increases, while there are more spatially complex changes in local rainfall. Furthermore, the impacts on atmospheric circulation occur as far as the north Pacific, with resulting increases in temperature and decreases in sea-ice coverage in winter as the Caspian area increases. The climate impacts are so significant and geographically extensive that climate models used to simulate climate change (both in future and past scenarios) should incorporate changes to the Caspian Sea area if they are to robustly model regional climate.

The unique alignment of orbital precession and obliquity during the Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11) interglacial produced perhaps the longest period of planetary warmth above pre-industrial conditions in the past 800 kyr. Reconstructions point to a significantly reduced Greenland ice sheet volume during this period as a result, although the remaining extent and volume of the ice sheet are poorly constrained. A series of time-slice simulations across MIS-11 using a coupled climate model indicates that boreal summer was particularly warm around Greenland and high latitudes of the Atlantic sector for a period of at least 20 kyr. This state of reduced atmospheric baroclinicity, coupled with an enhanced and poleward-shifted intertropical convergence zone and North African monsoon, favored weakened high-latitude winds and the emergence of a single, unified midlatitude jet stream. Consequent reductions in lower-tropospheric eddy heat flux over the north Atlantic therefore emerge as a negative feedback to additional warming over Greenland, perhaps partially counteracting conditions otherwise very favorable for widespread melting of the ice sheet. The relationship between Greenland precipitation and the state of the North Atlantic jet is less apparent, but slight summer changes in precipitation appear to be more than offset by increases during the remainder of the year. Such a dynamic state is surprising, as it bears stronger resemblance to the unified-jet state postulated as typical for glacial states than to the modern-day interglacial state.

The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03–5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300 and 600 ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75–14.5 Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker-than-modern equator-to-pole temperature difference. Here, we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model-data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modeling efforts and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO2 is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO2, such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by ∼2°C, with the spread in warming under a given CO2 concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to ∼1.2 times a CO2 doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference data sets represent the state-of-art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi-model, multi-proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress toward simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community-led efforts to coordinate modeling and data activities within a common analytical framework.

Historical estimates of the melt rate and extent of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) are poorly constrained, due both to incomplete understanding of relevant ice dynamics and the magnitude of forcing acting upon the ice sheet (e.g., Alley et al. 2010). Previous assessments of the Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11) interglacial period have determined it was likely one of the warmest and longest interglacial periods of the past 800 kyr, leading to melt of at least half the present-day volume of the Greenland ice sheet (Robinson et al. 2017). An enhanced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is commonly cited as sustaining the anomalous warmth across the North Atlantic and Greenland (e.g., Rachmayani et al. 2017), but little is known about potential atmospheric contributions. Paleorecords from this period are sparse, and detailed climate modelling studies of this period have been heretofore very limited. The climatic conditions over Greenland and the North Atlantic region, and how they may have contributed to the melt of the GrIS during MIS-11, are therefore not well understood. By utilizing climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), our study indicates that changes in atmospheric eddy behavior, including eddy fluxes of heat and precipitation, made significant contributions to the negative mass balance conditions over the GrIS during the MIS-11 interglacial. Thus, accounting for the effects of atmospheric feedbacks in a warmer-than-present climate is a necessary component for future analyses attempting to better constrain the extent and rate of melt of the GrIS.

The mass loss of glaciers and ice caps is one of the major contributors to sea-level rise over the past 120 years. Different climate forcings, both natural and anthropogenic, have an influence on the climate and therefore on glacier mass balance. Glaciers have a slow and delayed response to climate change, and at any point in time, their properties are therefore also a result of past climate changes. In this context, we present global glacier simulations over the last millennium. For these simulations, the Open Global Glacier Model was forced with the fully forced, single forced and control simulations of the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble. These simulations show how different climate forcings, i.e., volcanic, greenhouse gasses, solar, orbital, land use & land cover and ozone-aerosol, impact the climatic mass balance, both individually and combined. These influences are then analyzed over time and regionally. In addition to addressing the role of the different forcings, we present the contribution of natural vs anthropogenic forcings on glacier mass balance over the last millennium.

Continental drying in response to global warming will entail declining lake levels all over the world. Falling lake levels will have many far-reaching consequences that are underappreciated, but affect the livelihoods and economies of millions of people. A massive warning signal is the projected twenty-first century water level drop of up to 18 m in high emissions scenarios for the Caspian Sea, the largest lake in the world, which could hit stakeholders unprepared. Such a catastrophic drop in the Caspian Sea level would lead to a surface area decrease of 34% including the loss of the highly productive northern Caspian shelf and important wetlands such as the Volga Delta and other Ramsar sites. The disappearance of the vast shallow shelves, which are major food suppliers for fish and birds, will devastate native and endemic fish species, the Caspian seal and a richness of molluscs and crustacean species unique to the lake. The falling water level will not only threaten the unique ecosystem, but will also have severe impacts on regional economies and geopolitical stability.In the first part of this presentation, we discuss the extent of twenty-first century projected continental drying on a global scale and its potential effect on worldwide lake levels. In the second part, we focus on the Caspian Sea and discuss the potential impacts of water level fall on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, we address the question to which extent paleoclimates can be used as analogs for future global warming scenarios with respect to changes in the Caspian Sea level.

The Marine Isotope Substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial (425 – 395 thousand years before present) is a useful analogue to climate conditions that can be expected in the near future, and can provide insights on the natural response of the Antarctic ice sheets to a moderate, yet long lasting warming period. However, its response to the warming of MIS11c and consequent contribution to global sea level rise still remains unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice-sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three ice core and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. We identify a tipping point beyond which oceanic warming becomes the dominant forcing of ice-sheet retreat, and where collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is attained when a threshold of 0.4 oC oceanic warming relative to Pre-Industrial levels is sustained for at least 4 thousand years. Conversely, its eastern counterpart remains relatively stable, as it is mostly grounded above sea level. Our results suggest a total sea level contribution from the East and West Antarctic ice sheets of 4.0 – 8.2 m during MIS11c. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea-level reconstructions, this range is reduced to 6.7 – 8.2 m, and mostly reflects uncertainties regarding the initial configuration of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Past climates contain precious information about the workings of the climate system, and about what can be expected in a changed climate. The Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 125,000 years ago) is the most recent period of climate warmer than modern, at least in the Northern Hemisphere. Because of this, it has been often proposed that the LIG holds a partial analogy with a future warmer climate forced by enhanced greenhouse effect. Still, such analogy has never been examined in a quantitative manner. Here we address the question: for which scenario, time horizon, regions and season is the climate of the LIG a useful analogue of the future? We use the results of 13 climate models that performed the standard experiments of PMIP4 and CMIP6, and present a comparison of hemispheric temperature and precipitation between the LIG and SSP scenarios of the future. We also two independent assessments of models performance, by comparing their temperature and precipitation to climate reanalysis of the last decades and to proxies of the LIG. Insights gained from this comparison can inform studies in disciplines beyond climate studies, such as hydrology and ecology.

The upper ocean circulation in the western tropical Atlantic (WTA) is responsible for the northward cross-equatorial heat transport as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This cross-equatorial transport is influenced by the thermocline circulation and stratification. Although seasonal thermocline stratification in the WTA is precession-driven, the existence of an orbital pacemaker of changes in the entire WTA upper ocean stratification, which comprises the main thermocline, remains elusive. Here, we present a 300 ka-long record of the WTA upper ocean stratification and main thermocline temperature based on oxygen isotopes ( δ 18 O ) and Mg/Ca of planktonic foraminifera. Our Δ δ 18 O record between Globigerinoides ruber and Globorotalia truncatulinoides, representing upper ocean stratification, shows a robust precession pacing, where strong stratification was linked to high summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere (precession minima). Mg/Ca-based temperatures support that stratification is dominated by changes in thermocline temperature. We present a new mechanism to explain changes in WTA stratification, where during the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima, the Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts northward, developing a negative wind stress curl anomaly in the tropical Atlantic. This, in turn, pulls the main thermocline up and pushes the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre southwards, increasing the stratification to the north of the gyre. This mechanism is supported by experiments performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2). Finally, we hypothesize that the precession-driven WTA stratification may affect the cross-equatorial flow into the North Atlantic.

Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to past climate conditions similar to the present day can provide important insights for understanding its current changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. The Marine Isotope Substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial is one of the best candidates for an in-depth analysis given that at its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. However, Antarctic ice core data indicate that although MIS11c CO2 levels were close to Pre Industrial, warmer-than-present temperatures (of about 2 °C) lasted for much longer than during other interglacials. Since the global mean sea level is thought to have been 6‐13 m higher than today, there should have been some contribution from Antarctica. While substantial work has been conducted regarding the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to the MIS11c climate, which is believed to have contributed with 3.9–7.0 m to global sea level, both configurations of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain poorly constrained. We use a numerical ice-sheet model to shed light on the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to MIS11c climate conditions obtained from a combination of a suite of Antarctic ice cores and the LR04 global stack of deep-sea sediment records and climate model outputs, while assessing the model sensitivity to the uncertainties in sea level reconstructions, ice sheet initial configuration, and multi-centennial climate variability. We found that the regional climate signal of the MIS11c peak warming in Antarctica captured by the ice core records is necessary for the recorded sea level highstand to be reproduced, and that warming length was more important than magnitude. However, there is a threshold for a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse that lies within an envelope of 1.6 and 2.1 °C warmer-than-pre-industrial regional climate conditions. Sea level forcing and multi-centennial variability were found to have played virtually no role in driving ice sheet contraction, but the choice of initial configuration of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet provided a large source of uncertainty in the quantification of MIS11c Antarctic peak sea level contribution, which falls between 6.4 and 8.8 m.

The Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone variations of more than 3 m during the past century with important implications for the life of coastal people, economy and the ecosystem. The origin of these variations as well as future changes in the Caspian water budget are still a matter of debate. Here, the major modes of North Atlantic winter climate variability and atmospheric teleconnections that have a potential effect on the hydroclimate of the Caspian catchment region are examined. The skill of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) regarding the simulation of the modern climatology in the Caspian region and the major North Atlantic modes are analysed using different atmospheric grid resolutions and setups of the atmospheric component, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4 and CAM5). CESM1.2.2 with CAM5 atmosphere physics and 1° atmospheric grid resolution shows reasonable skill in simulating the regional Caspian basin climatology and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Using this model version, a weakly positive (r =.2) statistically significant (p

It is widely assumed that the ventilation of the Southern Ocean played a crucial role in driving glacial‐interglacial atmospheric CO2‐levels. So far however, ventilation records from the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean, are widely missing. Here we present reconstructions of water residence times (depicted as ΔΔ14C and Δδ13C) for the last 32,000 years on sediment records from the Kerguelen Plateau and the Conrad Rise (~570‐2500 m water depth), along with simulated changes in ocean stratification from a transient climate model experiment. Our data indicate that Circumpolar Deep Waters in the Indian Ocean were part of the glacial carbon pool. At our sites, close to or bathed by upwelling deep‐waters, we find two pulses of decreasing ΔΔ14C and δ13C values (~21‐17ka; ~15‐12ka). Both transient pulses precede a similar pattern in downstream intermediate waters in the tropical Indian Ocean as well as rising atmospheric CO2 values. These findings suggest that 14C‐depleted, CO2‐rich Circumpolar Deep Water from the Indian Ocean contributed to the rise in atmospheric CO2 during HS1 and also the Younger Dryas, and that the southern Indian Ocean acted as a gateway for sequestered carbon to the atmosphere and tropical intermediate waters. Plain Language Summary By analyzing air bubbles trapped in glacial ice from Antarctica, we know the pattern of atmospheric CO2 for roughly the last 800,000 years. This record shows a distinctive pattern of warm interglacials with high values of atmospheric CO2 (~280 ppm) and cold glacials with CO2 as low as ~180 ppm. A leading hypothesis assumes that the CO2 that went “missing” from the atmosphere during the glacials was stored in the deep global ocean. Several studies suggest that during glacials, the main connection between the deep ocean and the surface/atmosphere – the Southern Ocean – was significantly interrupted or at least reduced. Until now, it was shown that the deglacial South Pacific, the Drake Passage, and the South Atlantic played a vital role in the release of the stored oceanic CO2 back to the atmosphere. With our study, we want to shed new light on the role, the southernmost Indian Ocean played in this system. Our data from the Kerguelen Plateau and the Conrad Rise indicate that the Indian Ocean also stored CO2 during the last glacial, and released it back to the atmosphere in two pulses during the last deglacial transition.

All major mountain ranges are assumed to have been subject to increased uplifting processes during the late Miocene and Pliocene. Previous work has demonstrated that African uplift is an important element to explain Benguela upper-ocean cooling in the late Miocene/Pliocene. According to proxy records, a surface ocean cooling also occurred in other Eastern Boundary upwelling regions during the late Neogene. Here we investigate a set of sensitivity experiments altering topography in major mountain regions (Andes, North American Cordillera and South/East African mountains) separately with regard to the potential impact on the intensity of near-coastal low-level winds, Ekman transport and Ekman pumping as well as upper-ocean cooling. The simulations show that mountain uplift is important for upper-ocean temperature evolution in the area of Eastern Boundary Currents. The impact is primarily on the atmospheric circulation which is then acting on upper-ocean temperatures through changes in strengths of upwelling, horizontal heat advection and surface heat fluxes. Different atmosphere-ocean feedbacks additionally alter the sea surface temperature response to uplift. The relative importance of the different feedback mechanisms depends on the region, but is most likely also influenced by model and model resolution.

MARUM, University of Bremen, Germany (1); Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany (2); University of Tübingen, Germany Precise future predictions of Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) variability as one of the most sensitive regions to climate change are hampered by insufficient knowledge of accurate SST reconstructions in resolution relevant for human time-scales from warmer-than-present periods. The Last Interglacial (LIG; ~130,000 to 116,000 years ago) is the most recent period with warmer-than-present climate; however, continuous subdecadal records of LIG SST are unavailable due to a small number of undisturbed sedimentary records and sample-size limitations of conventional methodologies. We circumvent these issues by applying Mass Spectrometry Imaging on finely laminated sapropel S5 sediment deposited in the Eastern Mediterranean; the result is an alkenone-based SST time-series in 1-4 year resolution. These data reveal prominent and rapid decadal SST oscillations in the Eastern Mediterranean with a ~60 years cyclicity that is persistent throughout most of the record, suggesting similar LIG decadal climate oscillations as in the Holocene. We also compare the reconstructed rate of SST change during the LIG to the present-day observational record, and find that LIG temperature change often exceeded the present-day rate of change. On the other hand, comparison of the LIG multidecadal SST to the projected increase in Mediterranean SST until 2100 AD suggests SST increase at the end of the 21st century to be unprecedented in magnitude and duration. We thus conclude that future warming of the Mediterranean could cause an unrivalled change in the Mediterranean planktonic ecosystems and their biological responses.

The climate system can potentially switch from one stable state to another. The closer a system is to a bifurcation point (i.e., ‘tipping point’), the more likely it is that even small perturbations can force the system to experience a state shift, e.g., a collapsing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated cooling in parts of the North Atlantic. Here, we present an abrupt state transition from a warm to a cold North Atlantic climate state with expanded sea ice during an orbitally forced transient Holocene simulation performed with the Community Climate System Model version 3. The state transition is associated with a weakening of the AMOC by about 33% in this simulation. The changing background climate induced by slow external orbital forcing plays an important role for the abrupt climate shift. The model allows the identification of regions and variables that play a key role for a potential climate transition and show early-warning signals. Increase in autocorrelation and standard deviation as well as trends in skewness especially for sea-surface salinity in the northern North Atlantic are identified as robust early-warning signals, whereas no early-warning signals are found in the time series of the AMOC stream function.

The middle Miocene climate transition (MMCT), likely triggered by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentration and changes in the Earth's orbital configuration, entailed major expansion of the Antarctic ice-sheet and cooling of the global ocean at ~15–13 Ma. By comparing simulations that use boundary conditions representative of 15 and 13 Ma, we assess the response of ocean temperatures and deep ocean circulation to atmospheric CO2 drawdown (from 400 to 200 ppmv) and Antarctic ice-sheet expansion (43 m of sea-level equivalent) during the MMCT by means of the Community Climate System Model version 3. The model simulates a decrease in mean global sea-surface temperature by 1.6 °C across the transition. Individual forcing experiments reveal that surface cooling is fully attributable to the CO2 drop, whereas expansion of the Antarctic ice-sheet tends to cause a slight global warming of the upper ocean. At depth, modelled ocean temperatures decrease by 1.5–2 °C across the MMCT in most regions. While the CO2 effect dominates deep-ocean cooling, about 25–30% is attributable to the expansion of the Antarctic ice-sheet. In the convection regions of the Southern Ocean, the CO2 drawdown causes an increase in salinity through sea ice formation and changes in the precipitation-evaporation balance. This increase in salinity, together with a decrease in surface temperatures, translates into an intensification in Antarctic Bottom Water formation that cools the deep ocean. The contribution of the Antarctic ice-sheet expansion to bottom and deep water cooling occurs through an increase in the surface heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere, which is linked to intensified cold surface winds blowing off the Antarctic continent. This study suggests that the magnitude of cooling of deep waters across the MMCT inferred from proxy records can be explained by the combined effects of the CO2 decrease and Antarctic ice-sheet expansion. Our surface cooling estimates are generally lower than those indicated by proxies.

Variations in Amazonian hydrology and forest cover have major consequences for the global carbon and hydrological cycles as well as for biodiversity. Yet, the climate and vegetation history of the lowland Amazon basin and its effect on biogeography remain debated due to the scarcity of suitable high-resolution paleoclimate records. Here, we use the isotopic composition (δD and δ 13 C) of plant-waxes from a high-resolution marine sediment core collected offshore the Amazon River to reconstruct the climate and vegetation history of the integrated lowland Amazon basin for the period from 50,000 to 12,800 yr before present. Our results show that δD values from the Last Glacial Maximum were more enriched than those from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and the present-day. We interpret this trend to reflect long-term changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation, with overall drier conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results thus suggest a dominant glacial forcing of the climate in lowland Amazonia. In addition to previously suggested thermodynamic mechanisms of precipitation change, which are directly related to temperature, we conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation are crucial to explain the temporal evolution of Amazonian rainfall variations, as demonstrated in climate model experiments. Our vegetation reconstruction based on δ 13 C values shows that the Amazon rainforest was affected by intrusions of savannah or more open vegetation types in its northern sector during Heinrich Stadials, while it was resilient to glacial drying. This suggests that biogeographic patterns in tropical South America were affected by Heinrich Stadials in addition to glacial–interglacial climate variability.

Changes in heat transport associated with fluctuations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are widely considered to affect the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), but the temporal immediacy of this teleconnection has to date not been resolved. Based on a high resolution marine sediment sequence over the last deglaciation, we provide evidence for a synchronous and near-linear link between changes in the Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature difference and continental precipitation over northeast Brazil. The tight coupling between AMOC strength, sea surface temperature difference and precipitation changes over northeast Brazil unambiguously points to a rapid and proportional adjustment of the ITCZ location to past changes in the Atlantic meridional heat transport.

Climate change in Siberia is currently receiving a lot of attention as large permafrost-covered areas could provide a strong positive feedback to global warming through the release of carbon that has been sequestered there on glacial-interglacial time scales. Geological evidence and climate model experiments show that the Siberian region also played an exceptional role during glacial periods. The region that is currently known for its harsh cold climate did not experience major glaciations during the last ice age, including its severest stages around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). On the contrary, it is thought that glacial summer temperatures were comparable to present-day. We combine LGM experiments from the second and third phases of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2 and PMIP3) with sensitivity experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Together these climate model experiments reveal that the intermodel spread in LGM summer temperatures in Siberia is much larger than in any other region of the globe and suggest that temperatures in Siberia are highly susceptible to changes in the imposed glacial boundary conditions, the included feedbacks and processes, and to the model physics of the different components of the climate model. We find that changes in the large-scale atmospheric stationary wave pattern and associated northward heat transport drive strong local snow and vegetation feedbacks and that this combination explains the susceptibility of LGM summer temperatures in Siberia. This suggests that a small difference between two glacial periods in terms of climate, ice buildup or their respective evolution towards maximum glacial conditions, can lead to strongly divergent summer temperatures in Siberia, that are sufficiently strong to allow for the buildup of an ice sheet during some glacial periods, while during others, above-freezing summer temperatures will preclude a multi-year snow-pack from forming.

Models used to project climate change agree with geological evidence of precipitation in most boreal land in a past warm climate., The last extended time period when climate may have been warmer than today was during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 129 to 120 thousand years ago). However, a global view of LIG precipitation is lacking. Here, seven new LIG climate models are compared to the first global database of proxies for LIG precipitation. In this way, models are assessed in their ability to capture important hydroclimatic processes during a different climate. The models can reproduce the proxy-based positive precipitation anomalies from the preindustrial period over much of the boreal continents. Over the Southern Hemisphere, proxy-model agreement is partial. In models, LIG boreal monsoons have 42% wider area than in the preindustrial and produce 55% more precipitation and 50% more extreme precipitation. Austral monsoons are weaker. The mechanisms behind these changes are consistent with stronger summer radiative forcing over boreal high latitudes and with the associated higher temperatures during the LIG.

Highlights: • Temperature anomalies for the Mid-Holocene compared to preindustrial are significantly different in the low- and high-resolution versions of the atmospheric model ECHAM5 • For summer, shortwave cloud radiative forcing emerges as an important factor. • For boreal winter, differences are mainly related to circulation changes. • Anomaly differences are regionally as large as the mid-Holocene minus preindustrial temperature signals. Abstract: This study evaluates the dependence of simulated surface air temperatures on model resolution and orography for the mid-Holocene. Sensitivity experiments with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 are performed with low (∼3.75°, 19 vertical levels) and high (∼1.1°, 31 vertical levels) resolution. Results are compared to the respective preindustrial runs. It is found that the large-scale temperature anomalies for the mid-Holocene (compared to preindustrial) are significantly different in the low- and high-resolution versions. For boreal winter, differences are mainly related to circulation changes caused by the response to thermal forcing in conjunction with orographic resolution. For summer, shortwave cloud radiative forcing emerges as an important factor. The anomaly differences (low minus high resolution version) in the Northern Hemisphere are regionally as large as the anomalous mid-Holocene temperature signals. Furthermore, they depend on the applied surface boundary conditions. We conclude that the resolution matters for the Northern Hemisphere response in mid-Holocene simulations, which should be taken into account in model-model and data-model comparisons.

Monsoons are the dominant seasonal mode of climate variability in the tropics and are critically important conveyors of atmospheric moisture and energy at a global scale. Predicting monsoons, which have profound impacts on regions that are collectively home to more than 70 per cent of Earth's population, is a challenge that is difficult to overcome by relying on instrumental data from only the past few decades. Palaeoclimatic evidence of monsoon rainfall dynamics across different regions and timescales could help us to understand and predict the sensitivity and response of monsoons to various forcing mechanisms. This evidence suggests that monsoon systems exhibit substantial regional character.

Summary The variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the three major Chinese river basins (Yellow River, Yangtze River and Pearl River) in the period of 1957–2013 were analyzed on an annual and seasonal basis, as well as their links to sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean on both interannual and decadal time scales. Annual mean temperature of the three river basins increased significantly overall since 1957, with an average warming rate of about 0.19 °C/10a, but the warming was characterized by a staircase form with steps around 1987 and 1998. The significant increase of annual mean temperature could mostly be attributed to the remarkable warming trend in spring, autumn and winter. Warming rates in the northern basins were generally much higher than in the southern basins. However, both the annual precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation of the three river basins showed little change in the study area average, but distinct interannual variations since 1957 and clear regional differences. An overall warming–wetting tendency was found in the northwestern and southeastern river basins in 1957–2013, while the central regions tended to become warmer and drier. Results from a Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) showed that the interannual variations of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature over the three river basins were both associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 1957. ENSO SST patterns affected precipitation and surface air temperature variability throughout the year, but with very different response patterns in the different seasons. For instance, temperature in most of the river basins was positively correlated with central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST in winter and spring, but negatively correlated in summer and autumn. On the decadal time scale, the seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature variations were strongly associated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation.

Highlights: • Threshold behavior in AMOC stability as response to freshwater perturbations in different background climate conditions. • The AMOC was more stable to freshwater forcing under glacial conditions, e.g. LGM. • Millennial-scale Dansgaard–Oeschger-type climate variability suppressed due to more stable ocean circulation. Abstract: Paleoclimatic records reveal that millennial-scale climate variability during the Pleistocene was most pronounced during intermediate glacial conditions, like Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3), rather than during interglacial and fully glaciated climates, like the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The rapid transitions between cold stadials and warm interstadials recorded in Greenland ice cores during MIS3, referred to as Dansgaard–Oeschger (D-O) events, have been correlated with millennial-scale climate variations worldwide. Although the origin of D-O events is a matter of controversy, striking evidence shows that variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) were involved. Therefore, understanding the stability properties of the ocean circulation under different background climate conditions is key to understanding D-O millennial-scale climate variability. In the present study, the stability of the AMOC to northern high-latitude freshwater perturbations under MIS3 and LGM boundary conditions is investigated by using the coupled climate model CCSM3. Stability diagrams constructed from a large set of equilibrium experiments reveal a nonlinear dependence of AMOC strength on freshwater forcing under both MIS3 and LGM conditions. The MIS3 baseline state is close to an AMOC stability threshold, which makes the MIS3 climate unstable with respect to minor perturbations. A similar threshold behavior in AMOC stability is observed under LGM conditions; however, larger freshwater perturbations are necessary to pass the threshold and weaken the AMOC. The threshold’s displacement relative to the MIS3 background climate is attributable to differences in the atmospheric hydrologic cycle and North Atlantic sea ice transport. Different atmospheric moisture transports are attributable to thermodynamic and dynamic processes related to differences in greenhouse gas forcing and ice-sheet height between MIS3 and the LGM. We conclude that the higher stability of the AMOC during the LGM is a physically plausible explanation for millennial-scale D-O-type climate variability being suppressed under full glacial conditions, whereas minor perturbations in freshwater fluxes could have triggered D-O climate shifts during MIS3.

International audience; Surface and thermocline conditions of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) reflect changes in regional and basin scale ocean and atmosphere circulations and in turn may affect climate globally. Previous studies suggest that a range of factors influences the WPWP on different timescales, however the precise forcings and mechanisms are unclear. Combining surface and thermocline records from sediment cores offshore Papua New Guinea we explore the influence of local and remote processes on the WPWP in response to astronomical forcing and changing glacial-interglacial boundary conditions over the past 110 kyr. We find that thermocline temperatures change with variations in Earth's obliquity with higher temperatures coinciding with high obliquity, which is attributed to variations in subduction and advection of the South Pacific Tropical Water. In contrast, rainfall variations associated with meridional migrations of the Intertropical Convergence Zone are primarily driven by changes in insolation due to precession. Records of bulk sedimentary Ti/Ca and foraminiferal Nd/Ca indicate an additional influence of obliquity, which, however, cannot unambiguously be related to changes in precipitation. Finally, our results suggest a thermocline deepening during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A compilation of available proxy records illustrates a dipole-like pattern of LGM thermocline depth anomalies with a shoaling (deepening) in the northern (southern) WPWP. A comparison of the proxy compilation with an ensemble of Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) climate model simulations reveals that the spatial pattern of LGM thermocline depth anomalies is mainly attributable to a contraction of the Pacific Walker circulation on its western side.

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. In the present study, the possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. In addition, solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) were carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.

In tropical eastern Africa, vegetation distribution is largely controlled by regional hydrology, which has varied over the past 20 000 years. Therefore, accurate reconstructions of past vegetation and hydrological changes are crucial for a better understanding of climate variability in the tropical southeastern African region. We present high-resolution pollen records from a marine sediment core recovered offshore of the Rufiji River delta. Our data document significant shifts in pollen assemblages during the last deglaciation, identifying, through changes in both upland and lowland vegetation, specific responses of plant communities to atmospheric (precipitation) and coastal (coastal dynamics and sea-level changes) alterations. Specifically, arid conditions reflected by a maximum pollen representation of dry and open vegetation occurred during the Northern Hemisphere cold Heinrich event 1 (H1), suggesting that the expansion of drier upland vegetation was synchronous with cold Northern Hemisphere conditions. This arid period is followed by an interval in which forest and humid woodlands expanded, indicating a hydrologic shift towards more humid conditions. Droughts during H1 and the shift to humid conditions around 14.8 kyr BP in the uplands are consistent with latitudinal shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) driven by high-latitude Northern Hemisphere climatic fluctuations. Additionally, our results show that the lowland vegetation, consisting of well-developed salt marshes and mangroves in a successional pattern typical for vegetation occurring in intertidal habitats, has responded mainly to local coastal dynamics related to marine inundation frequencies and soil salinity in the Rufiji Delta as well as to the local moisture availability. Lowland vegetation shows a substantial expansion of mangrove trees after ~ 14.8 kyr BP, suggesting an increased moisture availability and river runoff in the coastal area. The results of this study highlight the decoupled climatic and environmental processes to which the vegetation in the uplands and the Rufiji Delta has responded during the last deglaciation.

Past cooling events in the Northern Hemisphere have been shown to impact the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and therewith induce a southward shift of tropical precipitation. Here we use high resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations to show that reasonable past melt rates of the Antarctic Ice Sheet can similarly have led to shifts of the ITCZ, albeit in opposite direction, through large-scale surface air temperature changes over the Southern Ocean. Through sensitivity experiments employing slightly negative to large positive meltwater fluxes, we deduce that meridional shifts of the Hadley cell and therewith the ITCZ are, to a first order, a linear response to Southern Hemisphere high-latitude surface air temperature changes and Antarctic Ice Sheet melt rates. This highlights the possibility to use past episodes of anomalous melt rates to better constrain a possible future response of low latitude precipitation to continued global warming and a shrinking Antarctic Ice Sheet.

The semi-arid northeastern (NE) Brazil vegetation is largely dominated by Caatinga, one of the largest and richest dry forests in the world. Caatinga is a strategic biome, since it has borders with Cerrado, Atlantic forests and the Amazon, acting as a potential corridor (or barrier) for biotic interchange between these regions during evolutionary times. Therefore, accurate reconstructions of past vegetation, ecological and hydrological changes in this area are critical to understanding the dynamics of biome boundaries that may play an important role in dispersal and diversification mechanisms and, more specifically, the link between the long-term climate variability and tropical biodiversity. Here, we present high-resolution palynological and elemental data from marine core GeoB16205-4 retrieved off the Parnaiba River mouth (NE Brazil) mainly covering the Younger Dryas (YD). We show that the YD interval was predominantly wet in NE Brazil, yet it was not homogenous and two distinct phases could be distinguished. A marked intensification of wet conditions between ∼12.3 and 11.6 cal kyr BP was recorded by the expansion of tropical rainforest and tree ferns. These results are in agreement with the transient TraCE-21k coupled climate model simulation. We infer that the second pluvial phase of the YD is related to a weak AMOC due to meltwater pulses in the North Atlantic, which forces a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and its associated rainfall. Our records provide new evidence on the establishment of an “eastern forest corridor” in the nowadays semi-arid Caatinga allowing for past biotic interchanges of plant species.

Hominid evolution in the late Miocene has long been hypothesized to be linked to the retreat of the tropical rainforest in Africa. One cause for the climatic and vegetation change often considered was uplift of Africa, but also uplift of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau was suggested to have impacted rainfall distribution over Africa. Recent proxy data suggest that in East Africa open grassland habitats were available to the common ancestors of hominins and apes long before their divergence and do not find evidence for a closed rainforest in the late Miocene. We used the coupled global general circulation model CCSM3 including an interactively coupled dynamic vegetation module to investigate the impact of topography on African hydro-climate and vegetation. We performed sensitivity experiments altering elevations of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau as well as of East and Southern Africa. The simulations confirm the dominant impact of African topography for climate and vegetation development of the African tropics. Only a weak influence of prescribed Asian uplift on African climate could be detected. The model simulations show that rainforest coverage of Central Africa is strongly determined by the presence of elevated African topography. In East Africa, despite wetter conditions with lowered African topography, the conditions were not favorable enough to maintain a closed rainforest. A discussion of the results with respect to other model studies indicates a minor importance of vegetation–atmosphere or ocean–atmosphere feedbacks and a large dependence of the simulated vegetation response on the land surface/vegetation model.

Climate phenomena like the monsoon system, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are interconnected via various feedback mechanisms and control the climate of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding continents on various timescales. The eastern tropical Indian Ocean is a key area for the interplay of these phenomena and for reconstructing their past changes and forcing mechanisms. Here we present records of upper ocean thermal gradient, thermocline temperatures (TT) and relative abundances of planktic foraminifera in core SO 189-39KL taken off western Sumatra (0°47.400′ S, 99°54.510′ E) for the last 8 ka that we use as proxies for changes in upper ocean structure. The records suggest a deeper thermocline between 8 ka and ca 3 ka compared to the late Holocene. We find a shoaling of the thermocline after 3 ka, most likely indicating an increased occurrence of upwelling during the late Holocene compared to the mid-Holocene which might represent changes in the IOD-like mean state of the Indian Ocean with a more negative IOD-like mean state during the mid-Holocene and a more positive IOD-like mean state during the past 3 ka. This interpretation is supported by a transient Holocene climate model simulation in which an IOD-like mode is identified that involves an insolation-forced long-term trend of increasing anomalous surface easterlies over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean.

Pronounced millennial-scale climate variability during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) is considered to be linked to changes in the state of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), i.e., a warm interstadial/cold stadial state corresponds to a strong/weak AMOC. Based on a series of freshwater hosing/extraction experiments with the state-of-the-art Community Climate System Model version 3, we construct a global spatial fingerprint of oceanic temperature anomalies in response to AMOC changes under MIS3 boundary conditions. Highest sensitivity to AMOC changes, especially in summer, is found in northeastern North Atlantic sea surface temperature, but a characteristic temperature fingerprint is also found at subsurface levels. After testing significance of the linear sea surface temperature (SST)-AMOC regressions, the model results are combined with paleo-SST records to estimate the magnitude of millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger AMOC variations during MIS3. The results suggest a mean difference in AMOC strength between interstadial and (non-Heinrich) stadial states of 9.21.2Sv (1 sigma).

The southern westerly winds (SWW) exert a crucial influence over the world ocean and climate. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the Holocene temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW remains a significant challenge due to the sparsity of high-resolution marine archives and appropriate SWW proxies. Here we present a north-south transect of high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the western South Atlantic. Our proxy records reveal Holocene migrations of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC), a highly sensitive feature for changes in the position and strength of the northern portion of the SWW. Through the tight coupling of the BMC position to the large-scale wind field, the records allow a quantitative reconstruction of Holocene latitudinal displacements of the SWW across the South Atlantic. Our data reveal a gradual poleward movement of the SWW by about 1–1.5° from the early to the mid-Holocene. Afterward, variability in the SWW is dominated by millennial scale displacements on the order of 1° in latitude with no recognizable longer-term trend. These findings are confronted with results from a state-of-the-art transient Holocene climate simulation using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Proxy-inferred and modeled SWW shifts compare qualitatively, but the model underestimates both orbitally forced multimillennial and internal millennial SWW variability by almost an order of magnitude. The underestimated natural variability implies a substantial uncertainty in model projections of future SWW shifts.

Glacial/interglacial changes in Southern Ocean's air-sea gas exchange have been considered as important mechanisms contributing to the glacial/interglacial variability in atmospheric CO2. Hence, understanding past variability in Southern Ocean intermediate to deep water chemistry and circulation is fundamental to constrain the role of these processes on modulating glacial/interglacial changes in the global carbon cycle. Our study focused on the glacial/interglacial variability in the vertical extent of southwest Pacific Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). We compared carbon and oxygen isotope records from epibenthic foraminifera of sediment cores bathed in modern AAIW and Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW; 943-2066 m water depth) to monitor changes in water mass circulation spanning the past 350,000 years. We propose that pronounced freshwater input by melting sea ice into the glacial AAIW significantly hampered the downward expansion of southwest Pacific AAIW, consistent with climate model results for the Last Glacial Maximum. This process led to a pronounced upward displacement of the AAIW-UCDW interface during colder climate conditions and therefore to an expansion of the glacial carbon pool.

Abrupt cold events have been detected in numerous North Atlantic climate records from the Holocene. Several mechanisms have been discussed as possible triggers for these climate shifts persisting decades to centuries. Here, we describe two cold events that occurred during an orbitally forced transient Holocene simulation using the Community Climate System Model version 3. Both events occurred during the late Holocene (event 1 referring to 4305–4267 BP and event 2 referring to 3046–3018 BP) and were characterized by substantial surface cooling (−2.7 and −2.2 °C, respectively) and freshening (−0.7 and −0.6 PSU, respectively) as well as severe sea ice advance east of Newfoundland and south of Greenland. Sea ice even reached the Iceland Basin in the northeastern Atlantic at the climaxes of the cold events. Convection and deep-water formation in the northwestern Atlantic collapsed during the events, while the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation was not significantly affected. The events were triggered by prolonged phases of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation which, through changes in surface winds, caused substantial changes in the sub-polar ocean circulation and associated freshwater transports, resulting in a weakening of the sub-polar gyre. Our results suggest a possible mechanism by which abrupt cold events in the North Atlantic region may be triggered by internal climate variability without the need of an external (e.g. solar or volcanic) forcing.