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This thesis seeks to address a crucial geopolitical puzzle: within the context of their broader alignment, what is the most likely trajectory of the strategic cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic? To address this question, the thesis develops three hypotheses about the future course of the Sino-Russian entente and the potential for cooperation in the Arctic. The “complete alignment” hypothesis asserts that the Sino-Russian partnership will continue to deepen throughout Eurasia and spread to the Arctic. The second, “selective partnership” hypothesis posits that while the broader strategic alignment is likely to deepen, Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic will remain stagnant due to the significant obstacles to development in the region. The final, “diminishing alignment” hypothesis argues that the entente is likely to erode globally because of frictions in the Sino-Russian relationship, precluding productive cooperation in the Arctic. The thesis finds the most support in favor of the “complete alignment” hypothesis. The factors favoring this trajectory include Sino-Russian economic complementarity, Russia’s isolated geostrategic position, and the enhancement of regime security and the advancement of revisionist foreign policy goals for both states. Nevertheless, the developmental challenges in the Arctic due to the global climate crisis will remain a key “wild card,” potentially challenging this assessment and limiting the Sino-Russian Artic alignment., Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

In September 2020, tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh escalated into a full-scale war that ended with a tripartite ceasefire agreement on November 9, 2020. The consequences of the war have significantly changed the status quo and the strategic environment of the South Caucasus. Many believe that Russia has reaped significant benefits from the war, enabling Moscow to extend Russia’s military presence in the region and broaden its influence over Armenia and Azerbaijan. But an in-depth analysis of the war’s outcomes proves the initial perceptions of Russian gains are likely inaccurate. Drawing on open-source material and scholarly research, the thesis demonstrates that Russia lost significantly in terms of exerting influence in the region. The study finds that the basis for Moscow’s influence over Yerevan was shaken while the factors contributing to Russia’s influence over Baku have diminished considerably. Moreover, the emergence of Turkey as a regional power as well as Iran’s attempt to influence the developments in the South Caucasus have amplified the negative effects of the war for Russia. Understanding the war’s consequences should be paramount for regional countries as well as for those with strategic interests in the region. Russia’s reduced influence over the region might push Moscow to take assertive steps to reverse the war’s effects. The findings documented in this thesis can help policymakers review existing security and defense policies and adapt to new realities.

The Russian interference campaign against the U.S. presidential elections in 2016 and 2020 was an unprecedented effort to strike at the core of American democracy, and it is widely expected that election interference will continue in the future. However, key aspects of Russian electoral interference remain unexplored. While there is extensive research into the tactics and methods that Russia employed to influence the 2016 and 2020 elections, far less attention has been placed on the motives for Russia’s use of election interference, as well as its effectiveness in achieving the Kremlin’s objectives. This thesis examines two potential motives—regime preservation and international status—that may have underpinned Russia’s election interference operations. By tracing the evolution of Russia’s posture toward the West during the rule of Vladimir Putin, I find that although both motives have been at work, the desire to protect the Putin regime from pro-democracy movements was the primary driver for recent election interference operations. In turn, a cost-benefit analysis of Russian election interference finds that the costs imposed on Russia—particularly economic sanctions—did not sufficiently outweigh the benefits to deter Russia from targeting U.S. elections. As a result, election interference will likely remain an attractive tool for the Kremlin to advance its objectives.

The increasing strategic cooperation between China and Russia has grown into a major threat to the current global order and U.S. interests in Europe and Asia, particularly in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the declaration of a “no-limits” partnership between these two revisionist powers. This thesis assesses the potential scope and limitations of the Sino-Russian strategic alignment from a historical perspective and through the lenses of the relevant theories of international relations dealing with alliances and interstate competition. It also examines the key policy options available to the United States and its allies to limit Chinese and Russian attempts to undermine the Liberal International Order (LIO), and to displace the U.S. in Europe and Asia. The thesis finds that the option of driving a “wedge” between Russia and China through détente with Russia is not feasible if President Putin remains in power; similarly, opportunities for selective cooperation with a resurgent China remain limited. Because Russian and Chinese strategic cooperation and aggressive behavior are primarily driven by the internal threat to their authoritarian systems posed by the LIO, the most appropriate response is to contain these regimes with a U.S.-led global coalition of democracies.

The radical right in Europe uses sports and sports fans as a vehicle for recruitment and radicalization, as a space to refine extreme right-wing ideology, and as an arena for politically charged violence. This thesis analyzes the evolving relationship the radical right has with soccer hooligans and mixed martial arts (MMA) within Europe to determine the interplay between political ideology, popular culture, and violence from the 1980s to the present. Specifically, it evaluates how the radical right in Europe uses soccer and MMA to achieve its political objectives, while taking into account the development of regulations within the sports and of their fans. This thesis concludes that the changing political landscape in Europe, with the rise of Islamophobia, along with increased sporting and spectator regulations, a decline of violent hooliganism, and the recent popularity of MMA, have led to a refinement of radical right ideology and recruitment methods, as well as a professionalization of political violence. Fundamentally, soccer hooligans, constrained by increasing spectator regulation and limited politically legitimate support, turned to MMA and went from rioting in the streets to the brutality, refinement, and popularity of the MMA octagon.

How and why has Russia disputed innocent passages by Western warships in the Black Sea since the implementation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III) in 1982, and how has the West justified conducting these passages? This thesis focuses on the historical, geopolitical, and legal context surrounding four instances of innocent passage conducted by USS Yorktown and USS Caron (1986 and 1988), HMS Dragon (2020), and HMS Defender (2021) within 12 nautical miles of Crimea, in order to explain the broader implications that these innocent passages have for operations in the disputed waters of the Black Sea and the South China Sea. Whereas the 1986 innocent passage was met with Soviet naval interference and diplomatic protests, the 1988 innocent passage escalated to an infamous shouldering or “bumping incident.” A similar pattern of escalation took place after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. In my thesis, I provide a historical context for the innocent passages, and I explore U.S. and UK reasoning for conducting the innocent passages as well as Russia’s objections to the passages. Finally, I assess what the disputes suggest for similar maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea and propose a template for Navy-Wide Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOP) guidance., Outstanding Thesis, Lieutenant, United States Navy, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Arctic lands and waters are continuing to thaw with each passing decade, and the increasing interest in the economic, strategic, and transit potential of the “High North” is shaping the region into an arena of rising competition. This thesis seeks to answer the following question: What do Russia’s ambitious economic ventures, military buildup, and increasingly aggressive posture in the Arctic indicate regarding its intentions in the region? To address this puzzle, the thesis examines three hypotheses, rooted in different interpretations of Russian behavior in the region. The first hypothesis reflects Moscow’s claims that its military buildup is purely defensive and aimed to protect Russian economic and security interests in the Arctic. The second hypothesis asserts that Russia is striving to push out other competitors and become the regional hegemon in the Arctic. The third proposition is that Moscow’s Arctic efforts are primarily geared to gain access to new resource rents and to distract Russia’s population from domestic grievances, advancing the ruling regime’s hold on power. Tracing Russian actions in the region, the thesis finds that its posture in the Arctic is most consistent with the third, regime preservation motive, which may make Moscow’s future behavior particularly volatile., Captain, United States Air Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

NPS NRP Technical Report, This research will examine the implications of the rise of two near-peer, nuclear-armed adversaries for the United States, with an emphasis on the Russian role as a pivotal player in this rising configuration. The focus on Russia will account for the fact that while China's rise makes it potentially the most significant long-term threat, the current scale of Russia's arsenal and its strategic posture make it the most immediate existential threat to the United States and its allies, as well as a key potential spoiler in the U.S. strategic pivot to the Indo-Pacific. The research will proceed along three parallel tracks. The first track will analyze how the different motivations and capabilities of Russia and China to challenge the United States structures their incentives for strategic cooperation, and will review the key debates among Russian elites on these topics. The second part will analyze Russian elite perceptions of the opportunities and limits of cooperation with China in boosting each other's strategic capabilities and their employment strategies. The third track of the research will examine the role of arms control and confidence-building measures in the emerging trilateral context, with the United States facing two near-peer adversaries. This research will be conducted through a combined team effort of subject-matter experts on Russian, U.S., NATO, and Chinese strategic doctrines, capabilities, and behavior. The researchers will perform a rigorous analysis of the debates in the Russian literature, complementing and contextualizing this information through discussions with subject matter experts in Washington, USSTRATCOM, NATO Headquarters, SHAPE Headquarters, and in key European allies. The final report will provide a combined analytical assessment on the topic, and discuss the implications for the USN, DoD, and U.S. national security more broadly., N3/N5 - Plans & Strategy, This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp, Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

What were the consequences of the 1998 decision by the dominant powers to reclassify the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) and not consider it a terrorist organization anymore? This thesis explores the history, circumstances, and implications of the reclassification of the KLA and the role that it played in the evolution of the Kosovo conflict. On the one hand, such decisions to end conflicts that may be characterized as terrorism or liberation struggles (for example, the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland) can be an important part of a successful reconciliation; the KLA's reclassification proved to be an important step toward achieving and maintaining peace, particularly as it allowed the KLA to partner with North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces to this end. But, on the other hand, this research found that in the short term, this abrupt change in classification gave legitimacy to the KLA and amplified the hopes, possibilities, and activities of the pro-independence movement, and thus may have intensified the armed struggle. Ultimately, the reclassification and its effects contributed to the strategic objectives and the ultimate goal of the KLA, which was to achieve Kosovo's independence., Captain, Hungarian Defence Force, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

This thesis examines the drivers of the rise and fall of Sino-Soviet relations in the 1950s and 1960s. The Sino-Soviet alliance grew beyond their similar ideologies through China’s need to modernize its economy and military to face geopolitical threats. This relationship was tested throughout the 1950s with the Korean War and economic Stalinization, but military and economic factors drove the relationship forward. However, ideological differences coupled with diverging economic and military interests ultimately split the relationship between Communist China and the Soviet Union. This research focuses on the military and economic factors that drove the Sino-Soviet relationship and ultimately led to its downfall., Ahlah Deslegch, Mongolian Armed Forces, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Since the 2014 invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, U.S. policymakers and military professionals have dedicated significant attention to countering Russian offensive irregular warfare and political warfare threats. However, just as Russia has modernized its offensive irregular capabilities, it has also made significant strides in combatting asymmetric threats. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria demonstrated this advancement, as Russian-led Syrian forces successfully battled U.S.-backed groups and the Islamic State. If U.S. Special Forces (U.S. SF) and their allies intend to challenge near-peer adversaries abroad, then it is time to study the threat posed by a modern counter-irregular warfare (CIW) campaign. This study seeks to address the transformation of Russian CIW doctrine and methods from the Russian Federation’s invasion of Chechnya in 1994 up through its current activities in the North Caucasus, the Middle East, and beyond. By identifying key principles and capabilities from across these case studies, this project aims to develop an improved understanding of the threat U.S. SF and their partners would face executing unconventional warfare (UW) against Russia or its proxies. Such an understanding would inform threat-based training scenarios and enhance the Special Forces regiment’s understanding of how Green Berets might execute UW against a peer adversary., Major, United States Army, Major, United States Army, Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The looming threat of a full-scale Russian attack on Ukraine kept the world on edge for much of 2021, and for good reason — an attack of this magnitude would arguably be the most significant invasion of a European country by a more powerful neighbor since Adolf Hitler’s assault on Poland in 1939. But what purpose would this move serve? As Russia’s preparations and threatening rhetoric have mounted, analysts have pointed out that another invasion of Ukraine would make little sense from a foreign and security policy standpoint.

Arctic lands and waters are continuing to thaw with each passing decade, and the increasing interest in the economic, strategic, and transit potential of the “High North” is shaping the region into an arena of rising competition. This thesis seeks to answer the following question: What do Russia’s ambitious economic ventures, military buildup, and increasingly aggressive posture in the Arctic indicate regarding its intentions in the region? To address this puzzle, the thesis examines three hypotheses, rooted in different interpretations of Russian behavior in the region. The first hypothesis reflects Moscow’s claims that its military buildup is purely defensive and aimed to protect Russian economic and security interests in the Arctic. The second hypothesis asserts that Russia is striving to push out other competitors and become the regional hegemon in the Arctic. The third proposition is that Moscow’s Arctic efforts are primarily geared to gain access to new resource rents and to distract Russia’s population from domestic grievances, advancing the ruling regime’s hold on power. Tracing Russian actions in the region, the thesis finds that its posture in the Arctic is most consistent with the third, regime preservation motive, which may make Moscow’s future behavior particularly volatile.

Since the 2014 invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, U.S. policymakers and military professionals have dedicated significant attention to countering Russian offensive irregular warfare and political warfare threats. However, just as Russia has modernized its offensive irregular capabilities, it has also made significant strides in combatting asymmetric threats. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria demonstrated this advancement, as Russian-led Syrian forces successfully battled U.S.-backed groups and the Islamic State. If U.S. Special Forces (U.S. SF) and their allies intend to challenge near-peer adversaries abroad, then it is time to study the threat posed by a modern counter-irregular warfare (CIW) campaign. This study seeks to address the transformation of Russian CIW doctrine and methods from the Russian Federation’s invasion of Chechnya in 1994 up through its current activities in the North Caucasus, the Middle East, and beyond. By identifying key principles and capabilities from across these case studies, this project aims to develop an improved understanding of the threat U.S. SF and their partners would face executing unconventional warfare (UW) against Russia or its proxies. Such an understanding would inform threat-based training scenarios and enhance the Special Forces regiment’s understanding of how Green Berets might execute UW against a peer adversary.

The research discusses Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and seeks to find the explanatory answer to this question: Why did the Russian Federation illegally annex the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine and invade Donbas in 2014? The thesis studies and evaluates Russia's hostilities toward Ukraine within the lenses of three hypothetical explanations'realist, constructivist, and regime survival'in two case studies: 1) annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine and 2) invasion of Ukraine's Donbas regions. The study finds that despite both cases occurring sequentially, the causal factors that prompted Russia toward aggression in Crimea and Donbas are different. The thesis argues that material factors are important and stay in the background of Russia's decisions in both cases. They were not necessarily the most significant aspect in the case of Crimea's annexation, but they were a factor in the case of Donbas's invasion. However, cultural and ideational factors mattered most in both case studies. Besides, the research points out the importance of considering Russia's internal domestic factors, which refer to the Kremlin's regime survival. The latter has more explanatory power in the case of Crimea's annexation. Consequently, the understanding of Russia's motives in both case studies provides important background for the further development of Ukraine-Russia relations and sheds light on the prospects of conflict termination between two states.

High-quality strategic intelligence is commonly considered to be a stabilizing factor in international relations, steadying decision making and preventing misunderstandings and surprise attacks. This paper challenges this view by arguing that deep intelligence penetrations are some of the most destabilizing forces in high-stakes security crises. By exposing the opponents’ weaknesses and avenues of attack, intelligence penetration not only provides its beneficiaries with a potentially decisive offensive capability but also compels them to use it quickly, before the breach is discovered and the advantage is gone. Also, as the intelligence target is generally unaware of this capability, it does not serve as a deterrent that might force the target to the bargaining table. Thus, paradoxically, opposing sides are more likely to find a peaceful solution to crises when they do not have extensive strategic intelligence on each other.

This article argues that despite the chaos and uncertainty of the post-Soviet period, Russian political outlooks were highly coherent because they were driven by a near consensual desire to achieve greater stability. Based on over-time and cross-section dimensional analyses of a unique dataset of 418 surveys, covering the 1993–2011 period, I show that the popular obsession with restoring order facilitated the consolidation of authoritarianism in Russia. In particular, stability-centric outlooks structured political competition in ways that favored strong-armed incumbent behavior and fostered divisions and extremism among the opposition. These dynamics allowed Russia's increasingly authoritarian regime to rule with minimal use of coercion and largely through the ballot box.

The research discusses Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and seeks to find the explanatory answer to this question: Why did the Russian Federation illegally annex the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine and invade Donbas in 2014? The thesis studies and evaluates Russia's hostilities toward Ukraine within the lenses of three hypothetical explanations'realist, constructivist, and regime survival'in two case studies: 1) annexation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine and 2) invasion of Ukraine's Donbas regions. The study finds that despite both cases occurring sequentially, the causal factors that prompted Russia toward aggression in Crimea and Donbas are different. The thesis argues that material factors are important and stay in the background of Russia's decisions in both cases. They were not necessarily the most significant aspect in the case of Crimea's annexation, but they were a factor in the case of Donbas's invasion. However, cultural and ideational factors mattered most in both case studies. Besides, the research points out the importance of considering Russia's internal domestic factors, which refer to the Kremlin's regime survival. The latter has more explanatory power in the case of Crimea's annexation. Consequently, the understanding of Russia's motives in both case studies provides important background for the further development of Ukraine-Russia relations and sheds light on the prospects of conflict termination between two states., http://archive.org/details/whydidtherussian1094566094, Lieutenant Colonel, Ukrainian Ground Forces, Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited