AN ARCTIC ALIGNMENT: THE PROSPECTS FOR A DURABLE SINO-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP IN THE ARCTIC

This thesis seeks to address a crucial geopolitical puzzle: within the context of their broader alignment, what is the most likely trajectory of the strategic cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic? To address this question, the thesis develops three hypotheses about the future course of the Sino-Russian entente and the potential for cooperation in the Arctic. The “complete alignment” hypothesis asserts that the Sino-Russian partnership will continue to deepen throughout Eurasia and spread to the Arctic. The second, “selective partnership” hypothesis posits that while the broader strategic alignment is likely to deepen, Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic will remain stagnant due to the significant obstacles to development in the region. The final, “diminishing alignment” hypothesis argues that the entente is likely to erode globally because of frictions in the Sino-Russian relationship, precluding productive cooperation in the Arctic. The thesis finds the most support in favor of the “complete alignment” hypothesis. The factors favoring this trajectory include Sino-Russian economic complementarity, Russia’s isolated geostrategic position, and the enhancement of regime security and the advancement of revisionist foreign policy goals for both states. Nevertheless, the developmental challenges in the Arctic due to the global climate crisis will remain a key “wild card,” potentially challenging this assessment and limiting the Sino-Russian Artic alignment.
Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy
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