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While genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have primarily examined populations of European ancestry, more recent studies often involve additional populations, including admixed populations such as African Americans and Latinos. In admixed populations, linkage disequilibrium (LD) exists both at a fine scale in ancestral populations and at a coarse scale (admixture-LD) due to chromosomal segments of distinct ancestry. Disease association statistics in admixed populations have previously considered SNP association (LD mapping) or admixture association (mapping by admixture-LD), but not both. Here, we introduce a new statistical framework for combining SNP and admixture association in case-control studies, as well as methods for local ancestry-aware imputation. We illustrate the gain in statistical power achieved by these methods by analyzing data of 6,209 unrelated African Americans from the CARe project genotyped on the Affymetrix 6.0 chip, in conjunction with both simulated and real phenotypes, as well as by analyzing the FGFR2 locus using breast cancer GWAS data from 5,761 African-American women. We show that, at typed SNPs, our method yields an 8% increase in statistical power for finding disease risk loci compared to the power achieved by standard methods in case-control studies. At imputed SNPs, we observe an 11% increase in statistical power for mapping disease loci when our local ancestry-aware imputation framework and the new scoring statistic are jointly employed. Finally, we show that our method increases statistical power in regions harboring the causal SNP in the case when the causal SNP is untyped and cannot be imputed. Our methods and our publicly available software are broadly applicable to GWAS in admixed populations., Author Summary This paper presents improved methodologies for the analysis of genome-wide association studies in admixed populations, which are populations that came about by the mixing of two or more distant continental populations over a few hundred years (e.g., African Americans or Latinos). Studies of admixed populations offer the promise of capturing additional genetic diversity compared to studies over homogeneous populations such as Europeans. In admixed populations, correlation between genetic variants exists both at a fine scale in the ancestral populations and at a coarse scale due to chromosomal segments of distinct ancestry. Disease association statistics in admixed populations have previously considered either one or the other type of correlation, but not both. In this work we develop novel statistical methods that account for both types of genetic correlation, and we show that the combined approach attains greater statistical power than that achieved by applying either approach separately. We provide analysis of simulated and real data from major studies performed in African-American men and women to show the improvement obtained by our methods over the standard methods for analyzing association studies in admixed populations.

Recent whole genome polymerase binding assays in the Drosophila embryo have shown that a substantial proportion of uninduced genes have pre-assembled RNA polymerase-II transcription initiation complex (PIC) bound to their promoters. These constitute a subset of promoter proximally paused genes for which mRNA elongation instead of promoter access is regulated. This difference can be described as a rearrangement of the regulatory topology to control the downstream transcriptional process of elongation rather than the upstream transcriptional initiation event. It has been shown experimentally that genes with the former mode of regulation tend to induce faster and more synchronously, and that promoter-proximal pausing is observed mainly in metazoans, in accord with a posited impact on synchrony. However, it has not been shown whether or not it is the change in the regulated step per se that is causal. We investigate this question by proposing and analyzing a continuous-time Markov chain model of PIC assembly regulated at one of two steps: initial polymerase association with DNA, or release from a paused, transcribing state. Our analysis demonstrates that, over a wide range of physical parameters, increased speed and synchrony are functional consequences of elongation control. Further, we make new predictions about the effect of elongation regulation on the consistent control of total transcript number between cells. We also identify which elements in the transcription induction pathway are most sensitive to molecular noise and thus possibly the most evolutionarily constrained. Our methods produce symbolic expressions for quantities of interest with reasonable computational effort and they can be used to explore the interplay between interaction topology and molecular noise in a broader class of biochemical networks. We provide general-purpose code implementing these methods., Author Summary Gene activation is an inherently random process because numerous diffusing proteins and DNA must first interact by random association before transcription can begin. For many genes the necessary protein–DNA associations only begin after activation, but it has recently been noted that a large class of genes in multicellular organisms can assemble the initiation complex of proteins on the core promoter prior to activation. For these genes, activation merely releases polymerase from the preassembled complex to transcribe the gene. It has been proposed on the basis of experiments that such a mechanism, while possibly costly, increases both the speed and the synchrony of the process of gene transcription. We study a realistic model of gene transcription, and show that this conclusion holds for all but a tiny fraction of the space of physical rate parameters that govern the process. The improved control of cell-to-cell variations afforded by regulation through a paused polymerase may help multicellular organisms achieve the high degree of coordination required for development. Our approach has also generated tools with which one can study the effects of analogous changes in other molecular networks and determine the relative importance of various molecular binding rates to particular system properties.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) examine a large number of markers across the genome to identify associations between genetic variants and disease. Most published studies examine only single markers, which may be less informative than considering multiple markers and multiple genes jointly because genes may interact with each other to affect disease risk. Much knowledge has been accumulated in the literature on biological pathways and interactions. It is conceivable that appropriate incorporation of such prior knowledge may improve the likelihood of making genuine discoveries. Although a number of methods have been developed recently to prioritize genes using prior biological knowledge, such as pathways, most methods treat genes in a specific pathway as an exchangeable set without considering the topological structure of a pathway. However, how genes are related with each other in a pathway may be very informative to identify association signals. To make use of the connectivity information among genes in a pathway in GWAS analysis, we propose a Markov Random Field (MRF) model to incorporate pathway topology for association analysis. We show that the conditional distribution of our MRF model takes on a simple logistic regression form, and we propose an iterated conditional modes algorithm as well as a decision theoretic approach for statistical inference of each gene's association with disease. Simulation studies show that our proposed framework is more effective to identify genes associated with disease than a single gene–based method. We also illustrate the usefulness of our approach through its applications to a real data example., Author Summary Statistical methods used in most GWAS are based on the analysis of single markers. Prior biological information about markers, genes, and pathways is not commonly incorporated in the detection of associated disease loci. Recently a number of methods have been developed to incorporate such information, and it has been shown that they may make use of prior biological knowledge in association analysis. However, most of these methods ignore the regulatory relationships and functional interactions among genes. In this article, we propose a statistical method that can explicitly model the interactions of genes in a neighborhood defined by the topology of a pathway. Simulation studies and a real data example show that the proposed method can improve the power of identifying associated genes when they are in the neighborhood of other genes whose association has been firmly established in previous studies.

Technological advances make it possible to use high-throughput sequencing as a primary discovery tool of medical genetics, specifically for assaying rare variation. Still this approach faces the analytic challenge that the influence of very rare variants can only be evaluated effectively as a group. A further complication is that any given rare variant could have no effect, could increase risk, or could be protective. We propose here the C-alpha test statistic as a novel approach for testing for the presence of this mixture of effects across a set of rare variants. Unlike existing burden tests, C-alpha, by testing the variance rather than the mean, maintains consistent power when the target set contains both risk and protective variants. Through simulations and analysis of case/control data, we demonstrate good power relative to existing methods that assess the burden of rare variants in individuals., Author Summary Developments in sequencing technology now enable us to assay all genetic variation, much of which is extremely rare. We propose to test the distribution of rare variants we observe in cases versus controls. To do so, we present a novel application of the C-alpha statistic to test these rare variants. C-alpha aims to determine whether the set of variants observed in cases and controls is a mixture, such that some of the variants confer risk or protection or are phenotypically neutral. Risk variants are expected to be more common in cases; protective variants more common in controls. C-alpha is sensitive to this imbalance, regardless of its origin—risk, protective, or both—but is ideally suited for a mixture of protective and risk variants. Variation in APOB nicely illustrates a mixture, in that certain rare variants increase triglyceride levels while others decrease it. The hallmark feature of C-alpha is that it uses the distribution of variation observed in cases and controls to detect the presence of a mixture, thus implicating genes or pathways as risk factors for disease.

Rapid advances in sequencing technologies set the stage for the large-scale medical sequencing efforts to be performed in the near future, with the goal of assessing the importance of rare variants in complex diseases. The discovery of new disease susceptibility genes requires powerful statistical methods for rare variant analysis. The low frequency and the expected large number of such variants pose great difficulties for the analysis of these data. We propose here a robust and powerful testing strategy to study the role rare variants may play in affecting susceptibility to complex traits. The strategy is based on assessing whether rare variants in a genetic region collectively occur at significantly higher frequencies in cases compared with controls (or vice versa). A main feature of the proposed methodology is that, although it is an overall test assessing a possibly large number of rare variants simultaneously, the disease variants can be both protective and risk variants, with moderate decreases in statistical power when both types of variants are present. Using simulations, we show that this approach can be powerful under complex and general disease models, as well as in larger genetic regions where the proportion of disease susceptibility variants may be small. Comparisons with previously published tests on simulated data show that the proposed approach can have better power than the existing methods. An application to a recently published study on Type-1 Diabetes finds rare variants in gene IFIH1 to be protective against Type-1 Diabetes., Author Summary Risk to common diseases, such as diabetes, heart disease, etc., is influenced by a complex interaction among genetic and environmental factors. Most of the disease-association studies conducted so far have focused on common variants, widely available on genotyping platforms. However, recent advances in sequencing technologies pave the way for large-scale medical sequencing studies with the goal of elucidating the role rare variants may play in affecting susceptibility to complex traits. The large number of rare variants and their low frequencies pose great challenges for the analysis of these data. We present here a novel testing strategy, based on a weighted-sum statistic, that is less sensitive than existing methods to the presence of both risk and protective variants in the genetic region under investigation. We show applications to simulated data and to a real dataset on Type-1 Diabetes.

Viral production from infected cells can occur continuously or in a burst that generally kills the cell. For HIV infection, both modes of production have been suggested. Standard viral dynamic models formulated as sets of ordinary differential equations can not distinguish between these two modes of viral production, as the predicted dynamics is identical as long as infected cells produce the same total number of virions over their lifespan. Here we show that in stochastic models of viral infection the two modes of viral production yield different early term dynamics. Further, we analytically determine the probability that infections initiated with any number of virions and infected cells reach extinction, the state when both the population of virions and infected cells vanish, and show this too has different solutions for continuous and burst production. We also compute the distributions of times to establish infection as well as the distribution of times to extinction starting from both a single virion as well as from a single infected cell for both modes of virion production., Author Summary The dynamics of HIV infection and treatment has been extensively studied using ordinary differential equation models. Recent work on HIV transmission has suggested that most sexually transmitted infections are started by a single virus or infected cell. This observation coupled with the fact that successful HIV transmission only occurs in 1 per 100 to 1 per 1000 coital acts suggests that early events in infection are stochastic. Here we develop a stochastic model of HIV infection and use it to characterize the dynamics of early infection when virus is released from cells either continuously or in a burst. We show that these mechanisms of viral production produce different early dynamics, with different probabilities of extinction and different distributions of time to establish infection. In deterministic models, these modes of viral production are indistinguishable.

Background Implementation of control of parasitic diseases requires accurate, contemporary maps that provide intervention recommendations at policy-relevant spatial scales. To guide control of soil transmitted helminths (STHs), maps are required of the combined prevalence of infection, indicating where this prevalence exceeds an intervention threshold of 20%. Here we present a new approach for mapping the observed prevalence of STHs, using the example of Kenya in 2009. Methods and Findings Observed prevalence data for hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura were assembled for 106,370 individuals from 945 cross-sectional surveys undertaken between 1974 and 2009. Ecological and climatic covariates were extracted from high-resolution satellite data and matched to survey locations. Bayesian space-time geostatistical models were developed for each species, and were used to interpolate the probability that infection prevalence exceeded the 20% threshold across the country for both 1989 and 2009. Maps for each species were integrated to estimate combined STH prevalence using the law of total probability and incorporating a correction factor to adjust for associations between species. Population census data were combined with risk models and projected to estimate the population at risk and requiring treatment in 2009. In most areas for 2009, there was high certainty that endemicity was below the 20% threshold, with areas of endemicity ≥20% located around the shores of Lake Victoria and on the coast. Comparison of the predicted distributions for 1989 and 2009 show how observed STH prevalence has gradually decreased over time. The model estimated that a total of 2.8 million school-age children live in districts which warrant mass treatment. Conclusions Bayesian space-time geostatistical models can be used to reliably estimate the combined observed prevalence of STH and suggest that a quarter of Kenya's school-aged children live in areas of high prevalence and warrant mass treatment. As control is successful in reducing infection levels, updated models can be used to refine decision making in helminth control., Author Summary Effective targeting of mass drug administration for the treatment of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) requires reliable, up-to-date maps that indicate where prevalence exceeds the 20% intervention threshold recommended by the World Health Organization. We present a new approach for mapping the prevalence of STH in Kenya, incorporating observed prevalence data from 945 cross-sectional surveys undertaken between 1974 and 2009. The distribution of each species was modelled using model-based geostatistics; models included information on environmental factors, the spatial distribution of existing surveys and when these surveys were conducted. Resulting risk maps were combined and linked with population data enabling estimation of the population at risk of any STH infection and requiring treatment in 2009. In most areas, there was high certainty that combined STH prevalence was below the 20% intervention threshold, with areas of high prevalence located around the shores of Lake Victoria and on the coast. Results also suggest that observed prevalence decreased over time and emphasise the importance of continued surveillance in areas where observed prevalence was historically high. We show how spatial modelling can be used to develop up-to-date maps of STH risk to help improve the precision of decision making in disease control.

In this paper we used a general stochastic processes framework to derive from first principles the incidence rate function that characterizes epidemic models. We investigate a particular case, the Liu-Hethcote-van den Driessche's (LHD) incidence rate function, which results from modeling the number of successful transmission encounters as a pure birth process. This derivation also takes into account heterogeneity in the population with regard to the per individual transmission probability. We adjusted a deterministic SIRS model with both the classical and the LHD incidence rate functions to time series of the number of children infected with syncytial respiratory virus in Banjul, Gambia and Turku, Finland. We also adjusted a deterministic SEIR model with both incidence rate functions to the famous measles data sets from the UK cities of London and Birmingham. Two lines of evidence supported our conclusion that the model with the LHD incidence rate may very well be a better description of the seasonal epidemic processes studied here. First, our model was repeatedly selected as best according to two different information criteria and two different likelihood formulations. The second line of evidence is qualitative in nature: contrary to what the SIRS model with classical incidence rate predicts, the solution of the deterministic SIRS model with LHD incidence rate will reach either the disease free equilibrium or the endemic equilibrium depending on the initial conditions. These findings along with computer intensive simulations of the models' Poincaré map with environmental stochasticity contributed to attain a clear separation of the roles of the environmental forcing and the mechanics of the disease transmission in shaping seasonal epidemics dynamics., Author Summary Nonlinearity in the infection incidence is one of the main components that shape seasonal epidemics. Here, we revisit classical incidence and propose a first principles derivation of the infection incidence rate. A qualitative analysis of the SIRS model with both the classical and the proposed incidence rate showed that the new model is physically more meaningful. We conducted a statistical analysis confronting the SIRS and SEIR models formulated using both incidence rate functions with four data sets of seasonal childhood epidemics. Two data sets were hospital records of cases of syncytial respiratory virus (RSV). The other two data sets were taken from the well-known UK measles epidemics database. We found that seasonal epidemics is better explained using our incidence rate model embedded in a Poisson sampling process. The results presented here are not by any means an exhaustive exploration of the interplay between nonlinear dynamics and stochasticity. Our results may be viewed as the starting point of multiple research avenues. Three such research topics could be: the first-principles derivation of non-linear incidence rate functions, the role of bistability and demographic stochasticity for disease persistence and the simulation of environmental and demographic stochasticity in the Poincaré map.

We present a method to calculate the propensities of regions within a DNA molecule to transition from B-form to Z-form under negative superhelical stresses. We use statistical mechanics to analyze the competition that occurs among all susceptible Z-forming regions at thermodynamic equilibrium in a superhelically stressed DNA of specified sequence. This method, which we call SIBZ, is similar to the SIDD algorithm that was previously developed to analyze superhelical duplex destabilization. A state of the system is determined by assigning to each base pair either the B- or the Z-conformation, accounting for the dinucleotide repeat unit of Z-DNA. The free energy of a state is comprised of the nucleation energy, the sequence-dependent B-Z transition energy, and the energy associated with the residual superhelicity remaining after the change of twist due to transition. Using this information, SIBZ calculates the equilibrium B-Z transition probability of each base pair in the sequence. This can be done at any physiologically reasonable level of negative superhelicity. We use SIBZ to analyze a variety of representative genomic DNA sequences. We show that the dominant Z-DNA forming regions in a sequence can compete in highly complex ways as the superhelicity level changes. Despite having no tunable parameters, the predictions of SIBZ agree precisely with experimental results, both for the onset of transition in plasmids containing introduced Z-forming sequences and for the locations of Z-forming regions in genomic sequences. We calculate the transition profiles of 5 kb regions taken from each of 12,841 mouse genes and centered on the transcription start site (TSS). We find a substantial increase in the frequency of Z-forming regions immediately upstream from the TSS. The approach developed here has the potential to illuminate the occurrence of Z-form regions in vivo, and the possible roles this transition may play in biological processes., Author Summary We present the SIBZ algorithm that calculates the equilibrium properties of the transition from right-handed B-form to left-handed Z-form in a DNA sequence that is subjected to imposed stresses. SIBZ calculates the probability of transition of each base pair in a user-defined sequence. By examining illustrative examples, we show that the transition behaviors of all Z-susceptible regions in a sequence are coupled together by the imposed stresses. We show that the results produced by SIBZ agree closely with experimental observations of both the onset of transitions and the locations of Z-form sites in molecules of specified sequence. By analyzing 12,841 mouse genes, we show that sites susceptible to the B-Z transition cluster upstream from gene start sites. As this is where stresses generated by transcription accumulate, these sites may actually experience this transition when the genes involved are being expressed. This suggests that these transitions may serve regulatory functions.

Background In the Addona et al. paper (Nature Biotechnology 2009), a large-scale multi-site study was performed to quantify Multiple Reaction Monitoring (MRM) measurements of proteins spiked in human plasma. The unlabeled signature peptides derived from the seven target proteins were measured at nine different concentration levels, and their isotopic counterparts were served as the internal standards. Methodology/Principal Findings In this paper, the sources of variation are analyzed by decomposing the variance into parts attributable to specific experimental factors: technical replicates, sites, peptides, transitions within each peptide, and higher-order interaction terms based on carefully built mixed effects models. The factors of peptides and transitions are shown to be major contributors to the variance of the measurements considering heavy (isotopic) peptides alone. For the light (12C) peptides alone, in addition to these factors, the factor of study*peptide also contributes significantly to the variance of the measurements. Heterogeneous peptide component models as well as influence analysis identify the outlier peptides in the study, which are then excluded from the analysis. Using a log-log scale transformation and subtracting the heavy/isotopic peptide [internal standard] measurement from the peptide measurements (i.e., taking the logarithm of the peak area ratio in the original scale establishes that), the MRM measurements are overall consistent across laboratories following the same standard operating procedures, and the variance components related to sites, transitions and higher-order interaction terms involving sites have greatly reduced impact. Thus the heavy peptides have been effective in reducing apparent inter-site variability. In addition, the estimates of intercepts and slopes of the calibration curves are calculated for the sub-studies. Conclusions/Significance The MRM measurements are overall consistent across laboratories following the same standard operating procedures, and heavy peptides can be used as an effective internal standard for reducing apparent inter-site variability. Mixed effects modeling is a valuable tool in mass spectrometry-based proteomics research.

In blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), assessing functional connectivity between and within brain networks from datasets acquired during steady-state conditions has become increasingly common. However, in contrast to connectivity analyses based on task-evoked signal changes, selecting the optimal spatial location of the regions of interest (ROIs) whose timecourses will be extracted and used in subsequent analyses is not straightforward. Moreover, it is also unknown how different choices of the precise anatomical locations within given brain regions influence the estimates of functional connectivity under steady-state conditions. The objective of the present study was to assess the variability in estimates of functional connectivity induced by different anatomical choices of ROI locations for a given brain network. We here targeted the default mode network (DMN) sampled during both resting-state and a continuous verbal 2-back working memory task to compare four different methods to extract ROIs in terms of ROI features (spatial overlap, spatial functional heterogeneity), signal features (signal distribution, mean, variance, correlation) as well as strength of functional connectivity as a function of condition. We show that, while different ROI selection methods produced quantitatively different results, all tested ROI selection methods agreed on the final conclusion that functional connectivity within the DMN decreased during the continuous working memory task compared to rest.

Transcription factors are proteins that bind to motifs on the DNA and thus affect gene expression regulation. The qualitative description of the corresponding processes is therefore important for a better understanding of essential biological mechanisms. However, wet lab experiments targeted at the discovery of the regulatory interplay between transcription factors and binding sites are expensive. We propose a new, purely computational method for finding putative associations between transcription factors and motifs. This method is based on a linear model that combines sequence information with expression data. We present various methods for model parameter estimation and show, via experiments on simulated data, that these methods are reliable. Finally, we examine the performance of this model on biological data and conclude that it can indeed be used to discover meaningful associations. The developed software is available as a web tool and Scilab source code at http://biit.cs.ut.ee/gmat/.

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating., Author Summary The ability of humans to learn changing reward contingencies implies that they perceive, at a minimum, three levels of uncertainty: risk, which reflects imperfect foresight even after everything is learned; (parameter) estimation uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty about outcome probabilities; and unexpected uncertainty, or sudden changes in the probabilities. We describe how these levels of uncertainty evolve in a natural sampling task in which human choices reliably reflect optimal (Bayesian) learning, and how their evolution changes the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty. The ability to sense estimation uncertainty (also known as ambiguity) is a virtue because, besides allowing one to learn optimally, it may guide more effective exploration; but aversion to estimation uncertainty may be maladaptive. Here, we show that participant choices reflected aversion to estimation uncertainty. We discuss how past imaging studies foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish the different notions of uncertainty. Also, we document that the ability of participants to do such distinction relies on sufficient revelation of the payoff-generating model. When we induced structural uncertainty, participants did not gain awareness of the jumps in our task, and fell back to model-free reinforcement learning.

Background The persistent spread of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda in recent years has increased concerns of a potential overlap with the Gambian form of the disease. Recent research has aimed to increase the evidence base for targeting control measures by focusing on the environmental and climatic factors that control the spatial distribution of the disease. Objectives One recent study used simple logistic regression methods to explore the relationship between prevalence of Rhodesian HAT and several social, environmental and climatic variables in two of the most recently affected districts of Uganda, and suggested the disease had spread into the study area due to the movement of infected, untreated livestock. Here we extend this study to account for spatial autocorrelation, incorporate uncertainty in input data and model parameters and undertake predictive mapping for risk of high HAT prevalence in future. Materials and Methods Using a spatial analysis in which a generalised linear geostatistical model is used in a Bayesian framework to account explicitly for spatial autocorrelation and incorporate uncertainty in input data and model parameters we are able to demonstrate a more rigorous analytical approach, potentially resulting in more accurate parameter and significance estimates and increased predictive accuracy, thereby allowing an assessment of the validity of the livestock movement hypothesis given more robust parameter estimation and appropriate assessment of covariate effects. Results Analysis strongly supports the theory that Rhodesian HAT was imported to the study area via the movement of untreated, infected livestock from endemic areas. The confounding effect of health care accessibility on the spatial distribution of Rhodesian HAT and the linkages between the disease's distribution and minimum land surface temperature have also been confirmed via the application of these methods. Conclusions Predictive mapping indicates an increased risk of high HAT prevalence in the future in areas surrounding livestock markets, demonstrating the importance of livestock trading for continuing disease spread. Adherence to government policy to treat livestock at the point of sale is essential to prevent the spread of sleeping sickness in Uganda., Author Summary The tsetse transmitted parasites, Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense and Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, cause the fatal disease human African trypanosomiasis (HAT); the clinical progression, as well as the preferred diagnostic and treatment methods differ between the two types. Currently, the two do not overlap, although recent spread of Rhodesian HAT in Uganda has raised concerns over a potential future overlap. A recent study using geo-referenced HAT case records suggested that the most recent spread of Rhodesian HAT may have been due to movements of infected, untreated livestock (the main reservoir of the parasite). Here, the initial analysis has been extended by explicitly accounting for spatial locations and their proximity to one another, providing improved accuracy. The results provide strengthened evidence of the significance of livestock movements for the continued spread of Rhodesian HAT within Uganda, despite the introduction of cattle treatment regulations which were implemented in an effort to curb the disease's spread. The application of predictive mapping indicates an increased risk of HAT in areas surrounding livestock markets, demonstrating the importance of livestock trading for continuing disease spread. This robust evidence can be used for the targeting of disease control efforts within Uganda to prevent further spread of Rhodesian HAT.

Background This paper presents the first meta-analysis for the inter-rater reliability (IRR) of journal peer reviews. IRR is defined as the extent to which two or more independent reviews of the same scientific document agree. Methodology/Principal Findings Altogether, 70 reliability coefficients (Cohen's Kappa, intra-class correlation [ICC], and Pearson product-moment correlation [r]) from 48 studies were taken into account in the meta-analysis. The studies were based on a total of 19,443 manuscripts; on average, each study had a sample size of 311 manuscripts (minimum: 28, maximum: 1983). The results of the meta-analysis confirmed the findings of the narrative literature reviews published to date: The level of IRR (mean ICC/r2 = .34, mean Cohen's Kappa = .17) was low. To explain the study-to-study variation of the IRR coefficients, meta-regression analyses were calculated using seven covariates. Two covariates that emerged in the meta-regression analyses as statistically significant to gain an approximate homogeneity of the intra-class correlations indicated that, firstly, the more manuscripts that a study is based on, the smaller the reported IRR coefficients are. Secondly, if the information of the rating system for reviewers was reported in a study, then this was associated with a smaller IRR coefficient than if the information was not conveyed. Conclusions/Significance Studies that report a high level of IRR are to be considered less credible than those with a low level of IRR. According to our meta-analysis the IRR of peer assessments is quite limited and needs improvement (e.g., reader system)., PLoS ONE, 5 (12), ISSN:1932-6203

We describe three statistical results that we have found to be useful in case-control genetic association testing. All three involve combining the discovery of novel genetic variants, usually by sequencing, with genotyping methods that recognize previously discovered variants. We first consider expanding the list of known variants by concentrating variant-discovery in cases. Although the naive inclusion of cases-only sequencing data would create a bias, we show that some sequencing data may be retained, even if controls are not sequenced. Furthermore, for alleles of intermediate frequency, cases-only sequencing with bias-correction entails little if any loss of power, compared to dividing the same sequencing effort among cases and controls. Secondly, we investigate more strongly focused variant discovery to obtain a greater enrichment for disease-related variants. We show how case status, family history, and marker sharing enrich the discovery set by increments that are multiplicative with penetrance, enabling the preferential discovery of high-penetrance variants. A third result applies when sequencing is the primary means of counting alleles in both cases and controls, but a supplementary pooled genotyping sample is used to identify the variants that are very rare. We show that this raises no validity issues, and we evaluate a less expensive and more adaptive approach to judging rarity, based on group-specific variants. We demonstrate the important and unusual caveat that this method requires equal sample sizes for validity. These three results can be used to more efficiently detect the association of rare genetic variants with disease.

Knowledge of social contact patterns still represents the most critical step for understanding the spread of directly transmitted infections. Data on social contact patterns are, however, expensive to obtain. A major issue is then whether the simulation of synthetic societies might be helpful to reliably reconstruct such data. In this paper, we compute a variety of synthetic age-specific contact matrices through simulation of a simple individual-based model (IBM). The model is informed by Italian Time Use data and routine socio-demographic data (e.g., school and workplace attendance, household structure, etc.). The model is named “Little Italy” because each artificial agent is a clone of a real person. In other words, each agent's daily diary is the one observed in a corresponding real individual sampled in the Italian Time Use Survey. We also generated contact matrices from the socio-demographic model underlying the Italian IBM for pandemic prediction. These synthetic matrices are then validated against recently collected Italian serological data for Varicella (VZV) and ParvoVirus (B19). Their performance in fitting sero-profiles are compared with other matrices available for Italy, such as the Polymod matrix. Synthetic matrices show the same qualitative features of the ones estimated from sample surveys: for example, strong assortativeness and the presence of super- and sub-diagonal stripes related to contacts between parents and children. Once validated against serological data, Little Italy matrices fit worse than the Polymod one for VZV, but better than concurrent matrices for B19. This is the first occasion where synthetic contact matrices are systematically compared with real ones, and validated against epidemiological data. The results suggest that simple, carefully designed, synthetic matrices can provide a fruitful complementary approach to questionnaire-based matrices. The paper also supports the idea that, depending on the transmissibility level of the infection, either the number of different contacts, or repeated exposure, may be the key factor for transmission., Author Summary Data on social contact patterns are fundamental to design adequate control policies for directly transmissible infectious diseases, ranging from a flu pandemic to tuberculosis, to recurrent epidemics of childhood diseases. Most countries in the world do not dispose of such data. We propose an approach to generate synthetic contact data by simulating an artificial society that integrates routinely available socio-demographic data, such as data on household composition or on school participation, with Time Use data, which are increasingly available. We then validate the ensuing simulated contact data against real epidemiological data for varicella and parvo-virus. The results suggest that the approach is potentially a very fruitful one, and provide some insights on the biology of transmission of close-contact infectious diseases.

Methotrexate (MTX) is widely used for the treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The accumulation of MTX and its active metabolites, methotrexate polyglutamates (MTXPG), in ALL cells is an important determinant of its antileukemic effects. We studied 194 of 356 patients enrolled on St. Jude Total XV protocol for newly diagnosed ALL with the goal of characterizing the intracellular pharmacokinetics of MTXPG in leukemia cells; relating these pharmacokinetics to ALL lineage, ploidy and molecular subtype; and using a folate pathway model to simulate optimal treatment strategies. Serial MTX concentrations were measured in plasma and intracellular MTXPG concentrations were measured in circulating leukemia cells. A pharmacokinetic model was developed which accounted for the plasma disposition of MTX along with the transport and metabolism of MTXPG. In addition, a folate pathway model was adapted to simulate the effects of treatment strategies on the inhibition of de novo purine synthesis (DNPS). The intracellular MTXPG pharmacokinetic model parameters differed significantly by lineage, ploidy, and molecular subtypes of ALL. Folylpolyglutamate synthetase (FPGS) activity was higher in B vs T lineage ALL (p, Author Summary One of the primary agents used in the treatment of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is methotrexate (MTX). By better understanding its intracellular disposition, we are able to better design treatments that circumvent drug resistance and thus help improve ALL cure rates. In this study, we develop a system of mathematical models that describe the intracellular disposition of MTX along with its inhibition of important biosynthetic pathways necessary for cell division. First, we used the models to describe the disposition of intracellular MTX in a cohort of 194 patients enrolled on St. Jude Total XV protocol for newly diagnosed ALL. The results of this modeling allowed us to determine mechanisms of in vivo variability in MTX accumulation. These mechanisms related to both the influx and efflux of the drug along with the enzymes related to its metabolism. Next, we used model simulations to show the effects of changes in MTX dose and schedule on its efficacy. The results of these simulations show that longer infusions yield better efficacy and that higher MTX doses can circumvent resistance observed in ALL subtypes with lower intracellular MTX accumulate. The results from this study provide new insights into the design of more effective therapy for pediatric ALL.

A major challenge in the field of systems biology consists of predicting gene regulatory networks based on different training data. Within the DREAM4 initiative, we took part in the multifactorial sub-challenge that aimed to predict gene regulatory networks of size 100 from training data consisting of steady-state levels obtained after applying multifactorial perturbations to the original in silico network. Due to the static character of the challenge data, we tackled the problem via a sparse Gaussian Markov Random Field, which relates network topology with the covariance inverse generated by the gene measurements. As for the computations, we used the Graphical Lasso algorithm which provided a large range of candidate network topologies. The main task was to select the optimal network topology and for that, different model selection criteria were explored. The selected networks were compared with the golden standards and the results ranked using the scoring metrics applied in the challenge, giving a better insight in our submission and the way to improve it. Our approach provides an easy statistical and computational framework to infer gene regulatory networks that is suitable for large networks, even if the number of the observations (perturbations) is greater than the number of variables (genes).

Background Brain state classification has been accomplished using features such as voxel intensities, derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, as inputs to efficient classifiers such as support vector machines (SVM) and is based on the spatial localization model of brain function. With the advent of the connectionist model of brain function, features from brain networks may provide increased discriminatory power for brain state classification. Methodology/Principal Findings In this study, we introduce a novel framework where in both functional connectivity (FC) based on instantaneous temporal correlation and effective connectivity (EC) based on causal influence in brain networks are used as features in an SVM classifier. In order to derive those features, we adopt a novel approach recently introduced by us called correlation-purged Granger causality (CPGC) in order to obtain both FC and EC from fMRI data simultaneously without the instantaneous correlation contaminating Granger causality. In addition, statistical learning is accelerated and performance accuracy is enhanced by combining recursive cluster elimination (RCE) algorithm with the SVM classifier. We demonstrate the efficacy of the CPGC-based RCE-SVM approach using a specific instance of brain state classification exemplified by disease state prediction. Accordingly, we show that this approach is capable of predicting with 90.3% accuracy whether any given human subject was prenatally exposed to cocaine or not, even when no significant behavioral differences were found between exposed and healthy subjects. Conclusions/Significance The framework adopted in this work is quite general in nature with prenatal cocaine exposure being only an illustrative example of the power of this approach. In any brain state classification approach using neuroimaging data, including the directional connectivity information may prove to be a performance enhancer. When brain state classification is used for disease state prediction, our approach may aid the clinicians in performing more accurate diagnosis of diseases in situations where in non-neuroimaging biomarkers may be unable to perform differential diagnosis with certainty.

BackgroundEvaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up.Methods and findingsTreatment-naïve patients starting combination ART in five programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi and South Africa were eligible. Patients whose last visit was at least nine months before the closure of the database were considered lost to follow-up. We filled missing survival times in these patients by multiple imputation, using estimates of mortality from studies that traced patients lost to follow-up. Data were analyzed using Weibull models, adjusting for age, sex, ART regimen, CD4 cell count, clinical stage and treatment programme. A total of 15,915 HIV-infected patients (median CD4 cell count 110 cells/µL, median age 35 years, 68% female) were included; 1,001 (6.3%) were known to have died and 1,285 (14.3%) were lost to follow-up in the first year of ART. Crude estimates of mortality at one year ranged from 5.7% (95% CI 4.9-6.5%) to 10.9% (9.6-12.4%) across the five programmes. Estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing patients lost to follow-up with those remaining in care ranged from 6 to 23. Adjusted estimates based on these hazard ratios ranged from 10.2% (8.9-11.6%) to 16.9% (15.0-19.1%), with relative increases in mortality ranging from 27% to 73% across programmes.ConclusionsNaïve survival analysis ignoring excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up may greatly underestimate overall mortality, and bias ART programme evaluations. Adjusted mortality estimates can be obtained based on excess mortality rates in patients lost to follow-up.

Background Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks (GRNs) from time course microarray data suffers from the dimensionality problem created by the short length of available time series compared to the large number of genes in the network. To overcome this, data integration from diverse sources is mandatory. Microarray data from different sources and platforms are publicly available, but integration is not straightforward, due to platform and experimental differences. Methods We analyse here different normalisation approaches for microarray data integration, in the context of reverse engineering of GRN quantitative models. We introduce two preprocessing approaches based on existing normalisation techniques and provide a comprehensive comparison of normalised datasets. Conclusions Results identify a method based on a combination of Loess normalisation and iterative K-means as best for time series normalisation for this problem.

Technology advances have promoted gene-based sequencing studies with the aim of identifying rare mutations responsible for complex diseases. A complication in these types of association studies is that the vast majority of non-synonymous mutations are believed to be neutral to phenotypes. It is thus critical to distinguish potential causative variants from neutral variation before performing association tests. In this study, we used existing predicting algorithms to predict functional amino acid substitutions, and incorporated that information into association tests. Using simulations, we comprehensively studied the effects of several influential factors, including the sensitivity and specificity of functional variant predictions, number of variants, and proportion of causative variants, on the performance of association tests. Our results showed that incorporating information regarding functional variants obtained from existing prediction algorithms improves statistical power under certain conditions, particularly when the proportion of causative variants is moderate. The application of the proposed tests to a real sequencing study confirms our conclusions. Our work may help investigators who are planning to pursue gene-based sequencing studies.

It is shown that existing processing schemes of 3D motion perception such as interocular velocity difference, changing disparity over time, as well as joint encoding of motion and disparity, do not offer a general solution to the inverse optics problem of local binocular 3D motion. Instead we suggest that local velocity constraints in combination with binocular disparity and other depth cues provide a more flexible framework for the solution of the inverse problem. In the context of the aperture problem we derive predictions from two plausible default strategies: (1) the vector normal prefers slow motion in 3D whereas (2) the cyclopean average is based on slow motion in 2D. Predicting perceived motion directions for ambiguous line motion provides an opportunity to distinguish between these strategies of 3D motion processing. Our theoretical results suggest that velocity constraints and disparity from feature tracking are needed to solve the inverse problem of 3D motion perception. It seems plausible that motion and disparity input is processed in parallel and integrated late in the visual processing hierarchy., Author Summary Humans and many other predators have two eyes that are set a short distance apart so that an extensive region of the world is seen simultaneously by both eyes from slightly different points of view. Although the images of the world are essentially two-dimensional, we vividly see the world as three-dimensional. This is true for static as well as dynamic images. Here we elaborate on how the visual system may establish 3D motion perception from local input in the left and right eye. Using tools from analytic geometry we show that existing 3D motion models offer no general solution to the inverse optics problem of 3D motion perception. We suggest a flexible framework of motion and depth processing and suggest default strategies for local 3D motion estimation. Our results on the aperture and inverse problem of 3D motion are likely to stimulate computational, behavioral, and neuroscientific studies because they address the fundamental issue of how 3D motion is represented in the visual system.

The extant beaver, Castor, has played an important role shaping landscapes and ecosystems in Eurasia and North America, yet the origins and early evolution of this lineage remain poorly understood. Here we use a geometric morphometric approach to help re-evaluate the phylogenetic affinities of a fossil skull from the Late Miocene of China. This specimen was originally considered Sinocastor, and later transferred to Castor. The aim of this study was to determine whether this form is an early member of Castor, or if it represents a lineage outside of Castor. The specimen was compared to 38 specimens of modern Castor (both C. canadensis and C. fiber) as well as fossil specimens of C. fiber (Pleistocene), C. californicus (Pliocene) and the early castorids Steneofiber eseri (early Miocene). The results show that the specimen falls outside the Castor morphospace and that compared to Castor, Sinocastor possesses a: 1) narrower post-orbital constriction, 2) anteroposteriorly shortened basioccipital depression, 3) shortened incisive foramen, 4) more posteriorly located palatine foramen, 5) longer rostrum, and 6) longer braincase. Also the specimen shows a much shallower basiocciptal depression than what is seen in living Castor, as well as prominently rooted molars. We conclude that Sinocastor is a valid genus. Given the prevalence of apparently primitive traits, Sinocastor might be a near relative of the lineage that gave rise to Castor, implying a possible Asiatic origin for Castor.

International audience; Automatic detection and characterization of molecular behavior in large data sets obtained by fast imaging in advanced light microscopy become key issues to decipher the dynamic architectures and their coordination in the living cell. Automatic quantification of the number of sudden and transient events observed in fluorescence microscopy is discussed in this paper. We propose a calibrated method based on the comparison of image patches expected to distinguish sudden appearing/vanishing fluorescent spots from other motion behaviors such as lateral movements. We analyze the performances of two statistical control procedures and compare the proposed approach to a frame difference approach using the same controls on a benchmark of synthetic image sequences. We have then selected a molecular model related to membrane trafficking and considered real image sequences obtained in cells stably expressing an endocytic-recycling transmembrane protein, the Langerin-YFP, for validation. With this model, we targeted the efficient detection of fast and transient local fluorescence concentration arising in image sequences from a data base provided by two different microscopy modalities, wide field (WF) video microscopy using maximum intensity projection along the axial direction and total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy. Finally, the proposed detection method is briefly used to statistically explore the effect of several perturbations on the rate of transient events detected on the pilot biological model.

Background Ratings in journal peer review can be affected by sources of bias. The bias variable investigated here was the information on whether authors had suggested a possible reviewer for their manuscript, and whether the editor had taken up that suggestion or had chosen a reviewer that had not been suggested by the authors. Studies have shown that author-suggested reviewers rate manuscripts more favorably than editor-suggested reviewers do. Methodology/Principal Findings Reviewers' ratings on three evaluation criteria and the reviewers' final publication recommendations were available for 552 manuscripts (in total 1145 reviews) that were submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, an interactive open access journal using public peer review (authors' and reviewers' comments are publicly exchanged). Public peer review is supposed to bring a new openness to the reviewing process that will enhance its objectivity. In the statistical analysis the quality of a manuscript was controlled for to prevent favorable reviewers' ratings from being attributable to quality instead of to the bias variable. Conclusions/Significance Our results agree with those from other studies that editor-suggested reviewers rated manuscripts between 30% and 42% less favorably than author-suggested reviewers. Against this backdrop journal editors should consider either doing without the use of author-suggested reviewers or, if they are used, bringing in more than one editor-suggested reviewer for the review process (so that the review by author-suggested reviewers can be put in perspective)., PLoS ONE, 5 (10), ISSN:1932-6203

As the global urban population surpasses the rural, continuing growth in most developing countries means an inevitable increase in urban births. The majority of births in many countries will not be in remote rural areas, but in towns and cities [1]. Far from being good news for the twin Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of maternal and child health—neither of which is currently on track for success [2]—high levels of urbanisation are likely to be associated with increased exclusion from care for many mothers in poor countries, and continued high maternal and newborn mortality among the urban poor. Health and social services in urban areas have not kept pace with urban population growth [3,4]. Women in slum communities can find care difficult to access even though a well-functioning health infrastructure is located nearby, and in some cases the urban poor have less access to services than people who live in rural areas [5–7].

Background Studies of patients with paraneoplastic neurologic disorders (PND) have revealed that apoptotic tumor serves as a potential potent trigger for the initiation of naturally occurring tumor immunity. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility, safety, and immunogenicity of an apoptotic tumor-autologous dendritic cell (DC) vaccine. Methods and Findings We have modeled PND tumor immunity in a clinical trial in which apoptotic allogeneic prostate tumor cells were used to generate an apoptotic tumor-autologous dendritic cell vaccine. Twenty-four prostate cancer patients were immunized in a Phase I, randomized, single-blind, placebo-controlled study to assess the safety and immunogenicity of this vaccine. Vaccinations were safe and well tolerated. Importantly, we also found that the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) responses and CD4+ and CD8+ T cell proliferation, with no effect on FoxP3+ regulatory T cells. A statistically significant increase in T cell proliferation responses to prostate tumor cells in vitro (p = 0.002), decrease in prostate specific antigen (PSA) slope (p = 0.016), and a two-fold increase in PSA doubling time (p = 0.003) were identified when we compared data before and after vaccination. Conclusions An apoptotic cancer cell vaccine modeled on naturally occurring tumor immune responses in PND patients provides a safe and immunogenic tumor vaccine. (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00289341). Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00289341

Background: In this paper we investigate the definition and formation of financial networks. Specifically, we study the influence of the time scale on their construction. Methodology/Principal Findings: For our analysis we use correlation-based networks obtained from the daily closing prices of stock market data. More precisely, we use the 30 stocks that currently comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and estimate financial networks where nodes correspond to stocks and edges correspond to none vanishing correlation coefficients. That means only if a correlation coefficient is statistically significant different from zero, we include an edge in the network. This construction procedure results in unweighted, undirected networks. By separating the time series of stock prices in non-overlapping intervals, we obtain one network per interval. The length of these intervals corresponds to the time scale of the data, whose influence on the construction of the networks will be studied in this paper. Conclusions/Significance: Numerical analysis of four different measures in dependence on the time scale for the construction of networks allows us to gain insights about the intrinsic time scale of the stock market with respect to a meaningful graph-theoretical analysis.

Background Aedes aegypti is one of the most important mosquito vectors of human disease. The development of spatial models for Ae. aegypti provides a promising start toward model-guided vector control and risk assessment, but this will only be possible if models make reliable predictions. The reliability of model predictions is affected by specific sources of uncertainty in the model. Methodology/Principal Findings This study quantifies uncertainties in the predicted mosquito population dynamics at the community level (a cluster of 612 houses) and the individual-house level based on Skeeter Buster, a spatial model of Ae. aegypti, for the city of Iquitos, Peru. The study considers two types of uncertainty: 1) uncertainty in the estimates of 67 parameters that describe mosquito biology and life history, and 2) uncertainty due to environmental and demographic stochasticity. Our results show that for pupal density and for female adult density at the community level, respectively, the 95% prediction confidence interval ranges from 1000 to 3000 and from 700 to 5,000 individuals. The two parameters contributing most to the uncertainties in predicted population densities at both individual-house and community levels are the female adult survival rate and a coefficient determining weight loss due to energy used in metabolism at the larval stage (i.e. metabolic weight loss). Compared to parametric uncertainty, stochastic uncertainty is relatively low for population density predictions at the community level (less than 5% of the overall uncertainty) but is substantially higher for predictions at the individual-house level (larger than 40% of the overall uncertainty). Uncertainty in mosquito spatial dispersal has little effect on population density predictions at the community level but is important for the prediction of spatial clustering at the individual-house level. Conclusion/Significance This is the first systematic uncertainty analysis of a detailed Ae. aegypti population dynamics model and provides an approach for identifying those parameters for which more accurate estimates would improve model predictions., Author Summary Dengue is one of the most important insect-vectored human viral diseases. The principal vector is Aedes aegypti, a mosquito that lives in close association with humans. Currently, there is no effective vaccine available and the only means for limiting dengue outbreaks is vector control. To help design vector control strategies, spatial models of Ae. aegypti population dynamics have been developed. However, the usefulness of such models depends on the reliability of their predictions, which can be affected by different sources of uncertainty including uncertainty in the model parameter estimation, uncertainty in the model structure, measurement errors in the data fed into the model, individual variability, and stochasticity in the environment. This study quantifies uncertainties in the mosquito population dynamics predicted by Skeeter Buster, a spatial model of Ae. aegypti, for the city of Iquitos, Peru. The uncertainty quantification should enable us to better understand the reliability of model predictions, improve Skeeter Buster and other similar models by targeting those parameters with high uncertainty contributions for further empirical research, and thereby decrease uncertainty in model predictions.

The relative contribution of genetic risk factors to the progression of subclinical atherosclerosis is poorly understood. It is likely that multiple variants are implicated in the development of atherosclerosis, but the subtle genotypic and phenotypic differences are beyond the reach of the conventional case-control designs and the statistical significance testing procedures being used in most association studies. Our objective here was to investigate whether an alternative approach—in which common disorders are treated as quantitative phenotypes that are continuously distributed over a population—can reveal predictive insights into the early atherosclerosis, as assessed using ultrasound imaging-based quantitative measurement of carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT). Using our population-based follow-up study of atherosclerosis precursors as a basis for sampling subjects with gradually increasing IMT levels, we searched for such subsets of genetic variants and their interactions that are the most predictive of the various risk classes, rather than using exclusively those variants meeting a stringent level of statistical significance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the predictive value of the variants, and cross-validation was used to assess how well the predictive models will generalize to other subsets of subjects. By means of our predictive modeling framework with machine learning-based SNP selection, we could improve the prediction of the extreme classes of atherosclerosis risk and progression over a 6-year period (average AUC 0.844 and 0.761), compared to that of using conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone (average AUC 0.741 and 0.629), or when combined with the statistically significant variants (average AUC 0.762 and 0.651). The predictive accuracy remained relatively high in an independent validation set of subjects (average decrease of 0.043). These results demonstrate that the modeling framework can utilize the “gray zone” of genetic variation in the classification of subjects with different degrees of risk of developing atherosclerosis., Author Summary Although cardiovascular events, such as myocardial infarction and stroke, usually occur at later ages, it is known that the atherogenic process begins much earlier in life. Detection of subclinical atherosclerosis would therefore offer the means to identify individuals who are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular events. What remains unclear is the relative contribution of genetic variation to the development of the early stages of atherosclerosis. To address this question, we searched for combinations of both genetic and clinical determinants that are the most predictive of the progression of subclinical carotid atherosclerosis in a sample of 1,027 young adults, aged between 24–39 years, from the Finnish general population (The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study). We demonstrate here, for the first time in a population-based follow-up study, a predictive relationship between individual's genotypic variation and early signs of atherosclerosis, which cannot be explained by conventional cardiovascular risk factors, such as obesity and elevated blood pressure levels. The predictive modeling framework facilitates the usability of genetic information by identifying informative panels of variants, along with conventional risk factors, which may prove to be useful in early detection and management of atherosclerosis. The clinical implications of these findings remain to be studied.

Understanding protein structure is of crucial importance in science, medicine and biotechnology. For about two decades, knowledge based potentials based on pairwise distances -- so-called "potentials of mean force" (PMFs) -- have been center stage in the prediction and design of protein structure and the simulation of protein folding. However, the validity, scope and limitations of these potentials are still vigorously debated and disputed, and the optimal choice of the reference state -- a necessary component of these potentials -- is an unsolved problem. PMFs are loosely justified by analogy to the reversible work theorem in statistical physics, or by a statistical argument based on a likelihood function. Both justifications are insightful but leave many questions unanswered. Here, we show for the first time that PMFs can be seen as approximations to quantities that do have a rigorous probabilistic justification: they naturally arise when probability distributions over different features of proteins need to be combined. We call these quantities reference ratio distributions deriving from the application of the reference ratio method. This new view is not only of theoretical relevance, but leads to many insights that are of direct practical use: the reference state is uniquely defined and does not require external physical insights; the approach can be generalized beyond pairwise distances to arbitrary features of protein structure; and it becomes clear for which purposes the use of these quantities is justified. We illustrate these insights with two applications, involving the radius of gyration and hydrogen bonding. In the latter case, we also show how the reference ratio method can be iteratively applied to sculpt an energy funnel. Our results considerably increase the understanding and scope of energy functions derived from known biomolecular structures.

Identifying when past exposure to an infectious disease will protect against newly emerging strains is central to understanding the spread and the severity of epidemics, but the prediction of viral cross-protection remains an important unsolved problem. For foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) research in particular, improved methods for predicting this cross-protection are critical for predicting the severity of outbreaks within endemic settings where multiple serotypes and subtypes commonly co-circulate, as well as for deciding whether appropriate vaccine(s) exist and how much they could mitigate the effects of any outbreak. To identify antigenic relationships and their predictors, we used linear mixed effects models to account for variation in pairwise cross-neutralization titres using only viral sequences and structural data. We identified those substitutions in surface-exposed structural proteins that are correlates of loss of cross-reactivity. These allowed prediction of both the best vaccine match for any single virus and the breadth of coverage of new vaccine candidates from their capsid sequences as effectively as or better than serology. Sub-sequences chosen by the model-building process all contained sites that are known epitopes on other serotypes. Furthermore, for the SAT1 serotype, for which epitopes have never previously been identified, we provide strong evidence – by controlling for phylogenetic structure – for the presence of three epitopes across a panel of viruses and quantify the relative significance of some individual residues in determining cross-neutralization. Identifying and quantifying the importance of sites that predict viral strain cross-reactivity not just for single viruses but across entire serotypes can help in the design of vaccines with better targeting and broader coverage. These techniques can be generalized to any infectious agents where cross-reactivity assays have been carried out. As the parameterization uses pre-existing datasets, this approach quickly and cheaply increases both our understanding of antigenic relationships and our power to control disease., Author Summary New strains of viruses arise continually. Consequently, predicting when past exposure to closely related strains will protect against infection by novel strains is central to understanding the dynamics of a broad range of the world's most important infectious diseases. While previous research has developed valuable tools for describing the observed antigenic landscapes, our ability to predict cross-protection between different viral strains depends almost entirely on cumbersome and expensive live animal work, often restricted to model species rather than the natural host. The development of computer-based approaches to the estimation of cross-protection from viral sequence data would be hugely valuable, and our study represents a significant step towards this research goal.

Background Much of our current understanding of the epidemiology of Ascaris lumbricoides infections in humans has been acquired by analyzing worm count data. These data are collected by treating infected individuals with anthelmintics so that worms are expelled intact from the gastrointestinal tract. Analysis of such data established that individuals are predisposed to infection with few or many worms and members of the same household tend to harbor similar numbers of worms. These effects, known respectively as individual predisposition and household clustering, are considered characteristic of the epidemiology of ascariasis. The mechanisms behind these phenomena, however, remain unclear. In particular, the impact of heterogeneous individual exposures to infectious stages has not been thoroughly explored. Methodology/Principal Findings Bayesian methods were used to fit a three-level hierarchical statistical model to A. lumbricoides worm counts derived from a three-round chemo-expulsion study carried out in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The effects of individual predisposition, household clustering and household covariates of the numbers of worms per host (worm burden) were considered simultaneously. Individual predisposition was found to be of limited epidemiological significance once household clustering had been accounted for. The degree of intra-household variability among worm burdens was found to be reduced by approximately 58% when household covariates were included in the model. Covariates relating to decreased affluence and quality of housing construction were associated with a statistically significant increase in worm burden. Conclusions/Significance Heterogeneities in the exposure of individuals to infectious eggs have an important role in the epidemiology of A. lumbricoides infection. The household covariates identified as being associated with worm burden provide valuable insights into the source of these heterogeneities although above all emphasize and reiterate that infection with A. lumbricoides is inextricably associated with acute poverty., Author Summary Numerous analyses have found that people infected with roundworm (Ascaris lumbricoides) are predisposed to harbor either many or few worms. Members of the same household also tend to harbor similar numbers of worms. These phenomena are called individual predisposition and household clustering respectively. In this article, we use Bayesian methods to fit a statistical model to worm count data collected from a cohort of participants at baseline and after two rounds of re-infection following curative treatment. We show that individual predisposition is extremely weak once the clustering effect of the household has been accounted for. This suggests that predisposition is of limited importance to the epidemiology of roundworm infection. Further, we show that over half of the variability in average worm counts among households is explained by household risk factors. This implies that exposures to infectious roundworm eggs shared by household members are important determinants of household clustering. We argue that these results support the hypothesis proposed in the literature that the household is a key focus of roundworm transmission.

The MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) is an ongoing study of the prevalence, risk factors, and progression of subclinical cardiovascular disease in a multi-ethnic cohort. It provides a valuable opportunity to examine the development and progression of CAC (coronary artery calcium), which is an important risk factor for the development of coronary heart disease. In MESA, about half of the CAC scores are zero and the rest are continuously distributed. Such data has been referred to as “zero-inflated data” and may be described using two-part models. Existing two-part model studies have limitations in that they usually consider parametric models only, make the assumption of known forms of the covariate effects, and focus only on the estimation property of the models. In this article, we investigate statistical modeling of CAC in MESA. Building on existing studies, we focus on two-part models. We investigate both parametric and semiparametric, and both proportional and nonproportional models. For various models, we study their estimation as well as prediction properties. We show that, to fully describe the relationship between covariates and CAC development, the semiparametric model with nonproportional covariate effects is needed. In contrast, for the purpose of prediction, the parametric model with proportional covariate effects is sufficient. This study provides a statistical basis for describing the behaviors of CAC and insights into its biological mechanisms.

Background The evaluation of the complexity of an observed object is an old but outstanding problem. In this paper we are tying on this problem introducing a measure called statistic complexity. Methodology/Principal Findings This complexity measure is different to all other measures in the following senses. First, it is a bivariate measure that compares two objects, corresponding to pattern generating processes, on the basis of the normalized compression distance with each other. Second, it provides the quantification of an error that could have been encountered by comparing samples of finite size from the underlying processes. Hence, the statistic complexity provides a statistical quantification of the statement ‘ is similarly complex as ’. Conclusions The presented approach, ultimately, transforms the classic problem of assessing the complexity of an object into the realm of statistics. This may open a wider applicability of this complexity measure to diverse application areas.

To gauge the current commitment to scientific research in the United States of America (US), we compared federal research funding (FRF) with the US gross domestic product (GDP) and industry research spending during the past six decades. In order to address the recent globalization of scientific research, we also focused on four key indicators of research activities: research and development (R&D) funding, total science and engineering doctoral degrees, patents, and scientific publications. We compared these indicators across three major population and economic regions: the US, the European Union (EU) and the People's Republic of China (China) over the past decade. We discovered a number of interesting trends with direct relevance for science policy. The level of US FRF has varied between 0.2% and 0.6% of the GDP during the last six decades. Since the 1960s, the US FRF contribution has fallen from twice that of industrial research funding to roughly equal. Also, in the last two decades, the portion of the US government R&D spending devoted to research has increased. Although well below the US and the EU in overall funding, the current growth rate for R&D funding in China greatly exceeds that of both. Finally, the EU currently produces more science and engineering doctoral graduates and scientific publications than the US in absolute terms, but not per capita. This study's aim is to facilitate a serious discussion of key questions by the research community and federal policy makers. In particular, our results raise two questions with respect to: a) the increasing globalization of science: “What role is the US playing now, and what role will it play in the future of international science?”; and b) the ability to produce beneficial innovations for society: “How will the US continue to foster its strengths?”

Mathematical aspects of coverage and gaps in genome assembly have received substantial attention by bioinformaticians. Typical problems under consideration suppose that reads can be experimentally obtained from a single genome and that the number of reads will be set to cover a large percentage of that genome at a desired depth. In metagenomics experiments genomes from multiple species are simultaneously analyzed and obtaining large numbers of reads per genome is unlikely. We propose the probability of obtaining at least one contig of a desired minimum size from each novel genome in the pool without restriction based on depth of coverage as a metric for metagenomic experimental design. We derive an approximation to the distribution of maximum contig size for single genome assemblies using relatively few reads. This approximation is verified in simulation studies and applied to a number of different metagenomic experimental design problems, ranging in difficulty from detecting a single novel genome in a pool of known species to detecting each of a random number of novel genomes collectively sized and with abundances corresponding to given distributions in a single pool.

Introduction Although, on average, cognition declines with age, cognition in older adults is a dynamic process. Hypertension is associated with greater decline in cognition with age, but whether treatment of hypertension affects this is uncertain. Here, we modelled dynamics of cognition in relation to the treatment of hypertension, to see if treatment effects might better be discerned by a model that included baseline measures of cognition and consequent mortality Methodology/Principal Findings This is a secondary analysis of the Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial (HYVET), a double blind, placebo controlled trial of indapamide, with or without perindopril, in people aged 80+ years at enrollment. Cognitive states were defined in relation to errors on the Mini-Mental State Examination, with more errors signifying worse cognition. Change in cognitive state was evaluated using a dynamic model of cognitive transition. In the model, the probabilities of transitions between cognitive states is represented by a Poisson distribution, with the Poisson mean dependent on the baseline cognitive state. The dynamic model of cognitive transition was good (R2 = 0.74) both for those on placebo and (0.86) for those on active treatment. The probability of maintaining cognitive function, based on baseline function, was slightly higher in the actively treated group (e.g., for those with the fewest baseline errors, the chance of staying in that state was 63% for those on treatment, compared with 60% for those on placebo). Outcomes at two and four years could be predicted based on the initial state and treatment. Conclusions/Significance A dynamic model of cognition that allows all outcomes (cognitive worsening, stability improvement or death) to be categorized simultaneously detected small but consistent differences between treatment and control groups (in favour of treatment) amongst very elderly people treated for hypertension. The model showed good fit, and suggests that most change in cognition in very elderly people is small, and depends on their baseline state and on treatment. Additional work is needed to understand whether this modelling approach is well suited to the valuation of small effects, especially in the face of mortality differences between treatment groups. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT0012281

Using examples from recent FDA regulatory proceedings, Jonas Hines and colleagues critique the medical device premarket review and identify eight weaknesses in the process that should be remedied.

Background Trypanosoma spp, biologically transmitted by the tsetse fly in Africa, are a major cause of illness resulting in both high morbidity and mortality among humans, cattle, wild ungulates, and other species. However, tsetse fly distributions change rapidly due to environmental changes, and fine-scale distribution maps are few. Due to data scarcity, most presence/absence estimates in Kenya prior to 2000 are a combination of local reports, entomological knowledge, and topographic information. The availability of tsetse fly abundance data are limited, or at least have not been collected into aggregate, publicly available national datasets. Despite this limitation, other avenues exist for estimating tsetse distributions including remotely sensed data, climate information, and statistical tools. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we present a logistic regression model of tsetse abundance. The goal of this model is to estimate the distribution of tsetse fly in Kenya in the year 2000, and to provide a method by which to anticipate their future distribution. Multiple predictor variables were tested for significance and for predictive power; ultimately, a parsimonious subset of variables was identified and used to construct the regression model with the 1973 tsetse map. These data were validated against year 2000 Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates. Mapcurves Goodness-Of-Fit scores were used to evaluate the modeled fly distribution against FAO estimates and against 1973 presence/absence data, each driven by appropriate climate data. Conclusions/Significance Logistic regression can be effectively used to produce a model that projects fly abundance under elevated greenhouse gas scenarios. This model identifies potential areas for tsetse abandonment and expansion.

Background High predictive validity – that is, a strong association between the outcome of peer review (usually, reviewers' ratings) and the scientific quality of a manuscript submitted to a journal (measured as citations of the later published paper) – does not as a rule suffice to demonstrate the usefulness of peer review for the selection of manuscripts. To assess usefulness, it is important to include in addition the base rate (proportion of submissions that are fundamentally suitable for publication) and the selection rate (the proportion of submissions accepted). Methodology/Principal Findings Taking the example of the high-impact journal Angewandte Chemie International Edition (AC-IE), we present a general approach for determining the usefulness of peer reviews for the selection of manuscripts for publication. The results of our study show that peer review is useful: 78% of the submissions accepted by AC-IE are correctly accepted for publication when the editor's decision is based on one review, 69% of the submissions are correctly accepted for publication when the editor's decision is based on two reviews, and 65% of the submissions are correctly accepted for publication when the editor's decision is based on three reviews. Conclusions/Significance The paper points out through what changes in the selection rate, base rate or validity coefficient a higher success rate (utility) in the AC-IE selection process could be achieved., PLoS ONE, 5 (6), ISSN:1932-6203

Biological data, and particularly annotation data, are increasingly being represented in directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, while relevant biological information is implicit in the links between multiple domains, annotations from these different domains are usually represented in distinct, unconnected DAGs, making links between the domains represented difficult to determine. We develop a novel family of general statistical tests for the discovery of strong associations between two directed acyclic graphs. Our method takes the topology of the input graphs and the specificity and relevance of associations between nodes into consideration. We apply our method to the extraction of associations between biomedical ontologies in an extensive use-case. Through a manual and an automatic evaluation, we show that our tests discover biologically relevant relations. The suite of statistical tests we develop for this purpose is implemented and freely available for download.

Introduction Enhanced characterization of sleep architecture, compared with routine polysomnographic metrics such as stage percentages and sleep efficiency, may improve the predictive phenotyping of fragmented sleep. One approach involves using stage transition analysis to characterize sleep continuity. Methods and Principal Findings We analyzed hypnograms from Sleep Heart Health Study (SHHS) participants using the following stage designations: wake after sleep onset (WASO), non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep, and REM sleep. We show that individual patient hypnograms contain insufficient number of bouts to adequately describe the transition kinetics, necessitating pooling of data. We compared a control group of individuals free of medications, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), medical co-morbidities, or sleepiness (n = 374) with mild (n = 496) or severe OSA (n = 338). WASO, REM sleep, and NREM sleep bout durations exhibited multi-exponential temporal dynamics. The presence of OSA accelerated the “decay” rate of NREM and REM sleep bouts, resulting in instability manifesting as shorter bouts and increased number of stage transitions. For WASO bouts, previously attributed to a power law process, a multi-exponential decay described the data well. Simulations demonstrated that a multi-exponential process can mimic a power law distribution. Conclusion and Significance OSA alters sleep architecture dynamics by decreasing the temporal stability of NREM and REM sleep bouts. Multi-exponential fitting is superior to routine mono-exponential fitting, and may thus provide improved predictive metrics of sleep continuity. However, because a single night of sleep contains insufficient transitions to characterize these dynamics, extended monitoring of sleep, probably at home, would be necessary for individualized clinical application.

The ability to identify directional interactions that occur among multiple neurons in the brain is crucial to an understanding of how groups of neurons cooperate in order to generate specific brain functions. However, an optimal method of assessing these interactions has not been established. Granger causality has proven to be an effective method for the analysis of the directional interactions between multiple sets of continuous-valued data, but cannot be applied to neural spike train recordings due to their discrete nature. This paper proposes a point process framework that enables Granger causality to be applied to point process data such as neural spike trains. The proposed framework uses the point process likelihood function to relate a neuron’s spiking probability to possible covariates, such as its own spiking history and the concurrent activity of simultaneously recorded neurons. Granger causality is assessed based on the relative reduction of the point process likelihood of one neuron obtained excluding one of its covariates compared to the likelihood obtained using all of its covariates. The method was tested on simulated data, and then applied to neural activity recorded from the primary motor cortex (MI) of a Felis catus subject. The interactions present in the simulated data were predicted with a high degree of accuracy, and when applied to the real neural data, the proposed method identified causal relationships between many of the recorded neurons. This paper proposes a novel method that successfully applies Granger causality to point process data, and has the potential to provide unique physiological insights when applied to neural spike trains., National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant DP1-OD003646), National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (Grant R01-EB006385)

Background In 2008, the IAS-USA published the revised guidelines for the use of HAART in adults substantially increasing the number of individuals eligible for HAART. The epidemic in British Columbia (BC) is mainly among men who have sex with men and those with injection drug use. Here, we explored the potential impact of different HAART coverage scenarios, based on the new guidelines, on the HIV-related incidence, morbidity and mortality in BC, Canada. Methodology We built a mathematical transmission model to investigate different HAART coverage scenarios (50%, 60%, 75% and 100%) of those medically eligible to receive HAART under the 2008 IAS guidelines. All new scenarios were compared to the current coverage in BC under the 2006 IAS guidelines (i.e. baseline scenario). In BC, it is estimated that 25–30% of individuals are unaware of their status. Costs were drug-related and reported in Canadian dollars. HIV-related morbidity and mortality were estimated based on the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) methodology. Principal Findings Currently, there are 4379 individuals on HAART under the IAS 2006 guidelines and 6781 individuals who qualify for treatment based on the new guidelines. Within 5 years, increasing HAART coverage decreased yearly new infections by at least 44.8%. In the 50% scenario, in 5 years, DALY decreased by 53% corresponding to 4155 averted DALYs, and in 25 years it decreased by 66% corresponding to 5837 averted DALYs. The effect was even stronger if the 75% scenario was chosen instead. Compared to the 100% expansion scenario, we observed an excess in annual direct treatment expenditures at the end of 5 years of approximately 1 million dollars in the 75% scenario, and of approximately 2 million dollars in the 50% scenario. Conclusions/Significance The individual and public health benefits of these new guidelines are immense. The results show that by increasing the number of individuals on HAART save lives, it is cost averting, and it positively impacts society by decreasing the number of new HIV infections. Thus, public health community should consider incremental gains when considering guidelines and policy.

An important step in understanding gene regulation is to identify the DNA binding sites recognized by each transcription factor (TF). Conventional approaches to prediction of TF binding sites involve the definition of consensus sequences or position-specific weight matrices and rely on statistical analysis of DNA sequences of known binding sites. Here, we present a method called SiteSleuth in which DNA structure prediction, computational chemistry, and machine learning are applied to develop models for TF binding sites. In this approach, binary classifiers are trained to discriminate between true and false binding sites based on the sequence-specific chemical and structural features of DNA. These features are determined via molecular dynamics calculations in which we consider each base in different local neighborhoods. For each of 54 TFs in Escherichia coli, for which at least five DNA binding sites are documented in RegulonDB, the TF binding sites and portions of the non-coding genome sequence are mapped to feature vectors and used in training. According to cross-validation analysis and a comparison of computational predictions against ChIP-chip data available for the TF Fis, SiteSleuth outperforms three conventional approaches: Match, MATRIX SEARCH, and the method of Berg and von Hippel. SiteSleuth also outperforms QPMEME, a method similar to SiteSleuth in that it involves a learning algorithm. The main advantage of SiteSleuth is a lower false positive rate., Author Summary An important step in characterizing the genetic regulatory network of a cell is to identify the DNA binding sites recognized by each transcription factor (TF) protein encoded in the genome. Current computational approaches to TF binding site prediction rely exclusively on DNA sequence analysis. In this manuscript, we present a novel method called SiteSleuth, in which classifiers are trained to discriminate between true and false binding sites based on the sequence-specific chemical and structural features of DNA. According to cross-validation analysis and a comparison of computational predictions against ChIP-chip data available for the TF Fis, SiteSleuth predicts fewer estimated false positives than any of four other methods considered. A better understanding of gene regulation, which plays a central role in cellular responses to environmental changes, is a key to manipulating cellular behavior for a variety of useful purposes, as in metabolic engineering applications.

Malarial infection is associated with complex immune and erythropoietic responses in the host. A quantitative understanding of these processes is essential to help inform malaria therapy and for the design of effective vaccines. In this study, we use a statistical model-fitting approach to investigate the immune and erythropoietic responses in Plasmodium chabaudi infections of mice. Three mouse phenotypes (wildtype, T-cell-deficient nude mice, and nude mice reconstituted with T-cells taken from wildtype mice) were infected with one of two parasite clones (AS or AJ). Under a Bayesian framework, we use an adaptive population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo method and fit a set of dynamical models to observed data on parasite and red blood cell (RBC) densities. Model fits are compared using Bayes' factors and parameter estimates obtained. We consider three independent immune mechanisms: clearance of parasitised RBCs (pRBC), clearance of unparasitised RBCs (uRBC), and clearance of parasites that burst from RBCs (merozoites). Our results suggest that the immune response of wildtype mice is associated with less destruction of uRBCs, compared to the immune response of nude mice. There is a greater degree of synchronisation between pRBC and uRBC clearance than between either mechanism and merozoite clearance. In all three mouse phenotypes, control of the peak of parasite density is associated with pRBC clearance. In wildtype mice and AS-infected nude mice, control of the peak is also associated with uRBC clearance. Our results suggest that uRBC clearance, rather than RBC infection, is the major determinant of RBC dynamics from approximately day 12 post-innoculation. During the first 2–3 weeks of blood-stage infection, immune-mediated clearance of pRBCs and uRBCs appears to have a much stronger effect than immune-mediated merozoite clearance. Upregulation of erythropoiesis is dependent on mouse phenotype and is greater in wildtype and reconstitited mice. Our study highlights the informative power of statistically rigorous model-fitting techniques in elucidating biological systems., Author Summary Malaria is a disease caused by a protozoan parasite of the genus Plasmodium. Every year there are around 250 million human cases of malaria, resulting in around a million deaths. Most of the severe cases and deaths are due to Plasmodium falciparum, which is endemic in much of sub-Saharan Africa and other tropical areas. The pathology of malaria is related to the asexual stage of the parasite. Understanding the infection dynamics during this stage is therefore essential to inform malaria treatment and vaccine design. Experimental infections of rodents represent an important first step towards understanding the more complicated human infections. We developed a series of models representing different hypotheses about the main processes regulating the infection dynamics during the asexual stage. Models were fit to data on Plasmodium chabaudi infections of mice, using a Bayesian statistical framework. The accuracy of different models in explaining the RBC and parasite densities was quantified. We identify the role of different types of immune-mediated mechanism, and show that RBC production (erythropoiesis) increases during infection. Differences between mouse phenotypes are explained. Our study highlights the informative power of model-fitting techniques in explaining biological systems.

An often reported, but nevertheless persistently striking observation, formalized as the Newcomb-Benford law (NBL), is that the frequencies with which the leading digits of numbers occur in a large variety of data are far away from being uniform. Most spectacular seems to be the fact that in many data the leading digit 1 occurs in nearly one third of all cases. Explanations for this uneven distribution of the leading digits were, among others, scale- and base-invariance. Little attention, however, found the interrelation between the distribution of the significant digits and the distribution of the observed variable. It is shown here by simulation that long right-tailed distributions of a random variable are compatible with the NBL, and that for distributions of the ratio of two random variables the fit generally improves. Distributions not putting most mass on small values of the random variable (e.g. symmetric distributions) fail to fit. Hence, the validity of the NBL needs the predominance of small values and, when thinking of real-world data, a majority of small entities. Analyses of data on stock prices, the areas and numbers of inhabitants of countries, and the starting page numbers of papers from a bibliography sustain this conclusion. In all, these findings may help to understand the mechanisms behind the NBL and the conditions needed for its validity. That this law is not only of scientific interest per se, but that, in addition, it has also substantial implications can be seen from those fields where it was suggested to be put into practice. These fields reach from the detection of irregularities in data (e.g. economic fraud) to optimizing the architecture of computers regarding number representation, storage, and round-off errors.