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In terms of plant diversity, the Mediterranean Basin is the world’s second richest hotspot, and one of the most important locations on the planet for endemic species. Despite the widespread acknowledgment of the region’s global importance for plant diversity, an up-to-date list of Mediterranean endemics is still unavailable. The available data are frequently insufficient or out of date at both the whole and the national levels. Therefore, the present study aimed at delimiting the Mediterranean floristic region, screening the Mediterranean endemics, and determining the habitats and phyto-geographical distribution of these taxa in Egypt. Hence, a preliminary list of 402 Mediterranean endemic taxa in Egypt was compiled from the available literature. Indeed, the present study has reduced this number to sixty-five (16.2%) Mediterranean endemics belonging to 49 genera and 22 families. Fifteen major habitats are supporting the Mediterranean endemics in Egypt. The most represented habitat was the non-saline depressions (20 taxa = 30.8%), followed by the coastal dunes (19 taxa = 29.2%). Moreover, the Mareotis (west) subsector was the richest with 57 taxa = 87.7%. In conclusion, it’s crucial to clearly define Mediterranean endemic plants and provide an updated documented database of these taxa for a given territory to help guide future management plans that support the conservation and sustainable use of these important species under the current thought-provoking devastating impacts of rapid anthropogenic and climate changes in the region.

G. biloba is native to China and one of the oldest living species. It has high economic value and has been used for medicinal, ornamental and other purposes. The current study sought to assess the potential sustainability of the plantations of the endangered species under climate change scenarios. The sustainability of the existing small wild population and plantations of the species worldwide were evaluated by assessing the changes in the climatic suitability of the areas to be used for the species plantations under different emission scenarios. A survey for the species distribution worldwide showed that it is currently planted in 29 botanic gardens. In Egypt only 31 trees exist in private and public botanic gardens. Propagation and germination experiments have been tested in 4 successive years to assess the effect of climate changes on germination requirements and phenology of the species. Propagation trials showed that seeds that were grown in soil media for 5 months under 25 °C attained high germination rate (>60%). Propagation trials in the nursery by stem cuttings gave promising results (100%) in 2015–2016. Using SDMs approach for assessing the change in the potential climatically suitable areas for the plantations and ex situ conservation of G. biloba under different climate change and emission scenarios, revealed that overall G. biloba is predicted to gain more climatically suitable areas under the four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5), however, a gain in the climatically suitable areas for the species is expected under the low and moderate emission scenarios and a decline is expected under the more warming scenarios. Also, a northwards shift is predicted in the climatic suitability for the plantations of the species. The projected latitudinal shift needs to be considered by mangers of G. biloba plantations. The provided predictions can guide the managers in developing short- and long-term plans for sustaining the plantations of the species under a precipitously changing climate.

Climate change is an important driver of habitat contraction and the loss of biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to assess the impacts of climate change and to identify priority conservation areas. Conservation assessment of endemic keystone species can foster the conservation of forest ecosystems. The objectives of this study are: (1) to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) on the extents of the habitat of eight endemic montane conifer species under dispersal scenarios (full and limited) and (2) to estimate the percentage loss in the area of occupancy (AOO) of the target species based on projected habitat suitability in order to assess their extinction risks and identify priority conservation areas. Southwestern China is a global hotspot of conifer diversity and endemism. We used three ensemble-SDMs along with the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red List criteria to evaluate the impacts of climate change. Abies fabri, Abies fargesii var. faxoniana, Abies recurvata var. ernestii, and Picea neoveitchii are predicted to lose more than 90% of their AOOs under both the climate and dispersal scenarios. All of these species are predicted to become extinct or critically endangered except for Picea retroflexa and Abies squamata. It should be noted that while the changes in the AOOs changes were filtered for the current unsuitable man-made areas these predictions do not account for future land use changes. Stable and suitable habitats are promising tools for in-situ conservation planning. Moreover, future conservation actions should give full consideration to the pattern of climate and land use.

Chapter 4 of the thematic assessment of the sustainable use of wild species of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services., Suggested citation: Balachander, G., Halmy, M.W.A., Parlee, B., Biggs, D., Chatakonda, M., Cisneros-Montemayor, A.M., Cormier-Salem, M-C., Dasgupta, R., Devkota, S., Diniz, J., Elfaki, A., Hiwasaki, L., Lichtenstein, G., Richter, A., Shah, M.A., Shanley, P., Shrestha, U.B., Lee, T.M., Bayarbaatar, B. and Kieling, D. (2022). Chapter 4: The drivers of the sustainable use of wild species. In: Thematic Assessment Report on the Sustainable Use of Wild Species of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Fromentin, J.M., Emery, M.R., Donaldson, J., Danner, M.C., Hallosserie, A., and Kieling, D. (eds.). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn, Germany. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6451494

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes impact the structure and functioning of ecosystems, which consequently influences the provisioning of a range of ecosystem services (ES). There is a growing consensus regarding the merit of integrating the evaluation of ES into regional policy planning. The Yangtze River is the world’s third longest and supports more than 6% of its population. However, assessing the potential impacts of different resource management policies upon ES is complicated in the Yangtze basin. To remedy this, here we designed a scenario analysis-based approach that used remotely sensed data and GIS (geographic information system) to analyze the relationships between ES (i.e., water flow regulation, water purification) and policies envisioned to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality, in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) in the Yangtze basin. This watershed area has high population density and suffers from severe flood hazard and critical pollution issues. The GEOMOD modeling technique was used to predict LULC changes according to policy planning alternatives, producing scenarios by 2050 for the TGRA watershed. The GIS-based ES model (InVEST model) was developed as a tool to inform the decision-making process with the intention of aligning conservation measures with economic development. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing three scenarios for 2050: scenario-1 maintains the current policy, with no considerations of ES; scenario-2 integrates ES into policy planning; and scenario-3 integrates ES into policy planning considering the needs of local people. Our scenario-based LULC change analysis showed that the land with large increases in water flow regulation (i.e., values ≤–3000 × 103 m3 km-2) were scattered over the entire study area, while phosphorus reduction (i.e., values ≤ –30 kg km-2) were located mainly along rivers in all scenarios. Scenario-2 and scenario-3 are based on policies aiming at enhancing ES provisioning; for these, the projected ecological risks of water pollution are significantly reduced (39.97% and 37.58%, respectively). Total net changes of the investigated ES under scenario-2 or scenario-3 were almost double that occurring under scenario-1. Although scenario-2 and scenario-3 showed a near-equal total net change, water purification under scenario-2 was the greatest relative to forest expansion. However, scenario-3 offered the best future environmental development scenario, as it accounted for the demand and supply characteristics of water yield and purification in different regions. The water purification service made the greatest contribution to positive and negative effects (26%–47% and -7%, respectively) on ES provisioning. Linking water purification service to policy planning would effectively improve the overall ES. These scenario forecasting results will help the Three Gorges Dam to gain more ecological benefits via improvements to water flow regulation and the effective alleviation of degraded water quality in heavily populated regions in the Yangtze basin.

Understanding the factors driving the Quaternary distribution of Abies in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is crucial for biodiversity conservation and for predicting future anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems. Here, we collected Quaternary paleo‐, palynological, and phylogeographical records from across the TP and applied ecological niche models (ENMs) to obtain a profound understanding of the different adaptation strategies and distributional changes in Abies trees in this unique area. We identified environmental variables affecting the different historical biogeographies of four related endemic Abies taxa and rebuilt their distribution patterns over different time periods, starting from the late Pleistocene. In addition, modeling and phylogeographic results were used to predict suitable refugia for Abies forrestii, A. forrestii var. georgei, A. fargesii var. faxoniana, and A. recurvata. We supplemented the ENMs by investigating pollen records and diversity patterns of cpDNA for them. The overall reconstructed distributions of these Abies taxa were dramatically different when the late Pleistocene was compared with the present. All Abies taxa gradually receded from the south toward the north in the last glacial maximum (LGM). The outcomes showed two well‐differentiated distributions: A. fargesii var. faxoniana and A. recurvata occurred throughout the Longmen refuge, a temporary refuge for the LGM, while the other two Abies taxa were distributed throughout the Heqing refuge. Both the seasonality of precipitation and the mean temperature of the driest quarter played decisive roles in driving the distribution of A. fargesii var. faxoniana and A. recurvata, respectively; the annual temperature range was also a key variable that explained the distribution patterns of the other two Abies taxa. Different adaptation strategies of trees may thus explain the differing patterns of distribution over time at the TP revealed here for endemic Abies taxa., All Abies species gradually receded from the south toward the north in the last glacial maximum (LGM). Abies fargesii var. faxoniana and A. recurvata occurred throughout the Longmen refuge, which was a temporary refuge only for the LGM, while the other two Abies taxa were distributed throughout the Heqing refuge. Different adaptation strategies may explain the different patterns of distribution of the four endemic Abies taxa.

Climate change and human activities can influence vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), a key component of natural ecosystems. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China, in spite of its significant natural and cultural values, is one of the most susceptible regions to climate change and human disturbances in the world. To assess the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics in the grassland ecosystems of the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we applied a time-series trend analysis to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets from 2000 to 2015 and compared these spatiotemporal variations with trends in climatic variables over the same time period. The constrained ordination approach (redundancy analysis) was used to determine which climatic variables or human-related factors mostly influenced the variation of NDVI. Furthermore, in order to determine whether current conservation measures and programs are effective in ecological protection and reconstruction, we divided the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau into two parts: the Three-River Headwater conservation area (TRH zone) in the south and the non-conservation area (NTRH zone) in the north. The results indicated an overall (73.32%) increasing trend of vegetation NPP in grasslands throughout the study area. During the period 2000–2015, NDVI in the TRH and NTRH zones increased at the rates of 0.0015/a and 0.0020/a, respectively. Specifically, precipitation accounted for 9.2% of the total variation in NDVI, while temperature accounted for 13.4%. In addition, variation in vegetation NPP of grasslands responded not only to long- and short-term changes in climate, as conceptualized in non-equilibrium theory, but also to the impact of human activities and their associated perturbations. The redundancy analysis successfully separated the relative contributions of climate change and human activities, of which village population and agricultural gross domestic product were the two most important contributors to the NDVI changes, explaining 17.8% and 17.1% of the total variation of NDVI (with the total contribution >30.0%), respectively. The total contribution percentages of climate change and human activities to the NDVI variation were 27.5% and 34.9%, respectively, in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Finally, our study shows that the grassland restoration in the study area was enhanced by protection measures and programs in the TRH zone, which explained 7.6% of the total variation in NDVI.

The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems (RLE) assessment is a new powerful scheme that identifies ecosystems that are at risk of collapse due to global environmental changes, which can help any mitigation actions aimed at conserving and rescuing these natural ecosystems. The current study applied RLE assessment protocol on Lake Burullus ecosystem, a highly productive wetland ecosystem, Ramsar site and International Bird Area (IBA) of Egypt. A conceptual model of the key ecosystem processes for Burullus wetland was constructed. The application of RLE followed the standard protocol for the first four criteria; (A) declines in distribution, (B) restricted distribution, (C) degradation of the abiotic components, and (D) regarding the assessment of the disruption of biotic processes and interactions. However, data were insufficient for assessing Criterion (E) that entails conducting quantitative estimates of the risk of collapse. Multi-date satellite images were obtained and processed to estimate the changes in the spatial distribution under criteria (A) and (B) of the study area. For evaluating Criteria (C) and (D), long-term data were collected from literature and previous works to cover the time frame of the assessment as much as possible. The results from the RLE assessment revealed that the status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (CR), which was attributed to various types of threats that caused degradation of the natural quality and integrity of the ecosystem. Although the RLE assessment provides a coherent approach for identifying ecosystems vulnerable to human-induced changes; data insufficiency can be an impediment for the efficient application of the RLE assessment. Remotely-sensed data can help in derivation of suitable spectral indicators of the status of the ecosystems structure and functioning that might overcome some of the challenges of data adequacy and relevance to the RLE assessment especially for the understudied and data-deficient ecosystems.

Aquatic ecosystems are susceptible to human-induced disturbance, including climate changes and biological invasions. The aim of this study was to assess the current and future potential distribution of two introduced aquatic species that have become invasive in some places where they were introduced. Hydrocotyle umbellata L. and Salvinia auriculata Aubl. are free-floating macrophytes native to North, Central, and South America. Both can quickly colonize aquatic environments because of their high growth rate and reproductive capacity similar to water hyacinth. Both species were introduced to Egypt for ornamental purposes. We have applied species distribution models using the Maxent approach and bioclimatic variables. Occurrence records from the entire range of the two species were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and used for modelling their habitat suitability and assessing the potentiality of their spread in other new habitats. To project future changes in the two macrophytes’ distributions with respect to climate change, we used four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) of the IPCC 5th assessment, based on different assumptions of greenhouse gas emissions for the future period of 2050s. The results showed that Maxent approach has successfully predicted the distribution of the two species with test AUC > 0.92. Bioclimatic variables that contributed the most to the prediction of the two species distribution included isothermality, temperature seasonality, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and minimum temperature of the coldest month. Results showed that the range of S. auriculata is predicted to increase by 2050 under all climatic scenarios. A decline in the current climatically suitable habitats of H. umbellata is projected to occur in its native range, especially in South America, while it is predicted to gain more suitable habitats out of its native range in Europe and Africa. Both species are predicted to gain habitats outside their native range, while their ranges are expected to face a decline in their native region. The study can help in the identification of areas with high potential vulnerability to future invasions by the two studied aquatic macrophytes and thus can assist in prioritization of monitoring actions and management plans. This can reduce any ecological and socio-economic consequences due to invasion by these two aquatic plants.

Northwestern coastal desert of Egypt is under pressure of human-induced changes due urban sprawl and agricultural practices leading to negative impacts on existing natural habitats. Assessing the impact of land-use changes on the ecological integrity is crucial for management and conservation efforts in the region. Floristic quality (FQ) assessment indices are important bioassessment tools that can be used to evaluate how anthropogenic changes may influence vegetation quality, species composition and environmental integrity. The approach is primarily stationed on floristic composition and disturbance tolerance at study sites. The objectives of this study were to: 1) study how anthropogenic disturbances due to land use/cover changes in the northwestern coastal desert affected its ecological quality as indicated by FQ indices; and 2) to evaluate the use of FQ indices as tools for characterizing anthropogenic disturbance among the habitats of Mediterranean desert ecosystem. Stands representing the main habitats were surveyed during 2011 through 2015 and data were compared to historic data collected before the developmental activities. The study revealed a trend of decline with time in the floristic quality of the study area as was indicated by floristic quality measures used (mean coefficient of conservatism, FQAI, and adjusted FQAI). Similar trend of decline in native and perennial species richness, and increase in non-native and annual species richness was observed for the period investigated from 1980s to time. At the habitat level, similar trend of decline in the floristic quality was observed, with the current time attaining the least values of FQ indices for all the habitats. The anthropogenic disturbance index (ADI) was developed in the current study as a quantitative measure of the level of disturbance and as an indicator to evaluate site’s ecological condition. The ADI exhibited significant negative relationship with the FQ indices, revealing that it can be recognized as useful index of anthropogenic disturbance that would complement the use of FQ indices in evaluating site ecological condition. The high association between ADI and the adjusted FQAI compared to the FQAI, confirms that the former signals the level of disturbance better than later. Although the adjusted FQAI has been developed and used in assessing vegetation quality of wetland, the current study revealed that it can be employed successfully for assessing and monitoring changes in vegetation quality and ecological integrity of deserts and arid ecosystems. For full and comprehensive evaluation of site’s ecological condition, the use of multiple bioindicators is recommended.

Understanding the influence of environmental covariates on plants’ distribution is critical, especially for aquatic plant species. Climate change is likely to alter the distribution of aquatic species. However, knowledge of this change on the burden of aquatic macroorganisms is often fraught with difficulty. Ottelia Pers., a model genus for studying the evolution of the aquatic family Hydrocharitaceae, is mainly distributed in slow-flowing creeks, rivers or lakes throughout the world’s pantropical areas. Due to recent rapid climate changes, the natural Ottelia populations have declined significantly. In the present study, we use maximum entropy (MaxEnt) to explore the environmental drivers of seven Ottelia species distribution in African freshwater bodies. The models use known background points to determine how environmental covariates vary spatially and produce continental maps of these species’ distribution. We also estimate the possible influences of the optimistic and extreme pessimistic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pathway scenarios and identify high suitability areas under these scenarios. Model performances were statistically significant than random expectations with Area Under Curve (AUC) values above 0.831, indicating the good performance of the models. We observe that our studied Ottelia species had distinct spatial patterns influenced by climate variations (e.g. Bio9- mean temperature of driest quarter, Bio12- annual precipitation, and Bio14- Precipitation of the driest month). While there is a lack of accord in defining the limiting factors for the distribution of the seven species, it is clear that water-temperature conditions have promising effects when kept within optimal ranges. Niche overlap analyses showed that most Ottelia species have similar but not equivalent climatic niches. In addition, considering the expected warming in the future, the persistence and survival of the Ottelia species in Africa could be compromised. The present findings provide a theoretical basis for the distribution of various Ottelia species in Africa.

Understanding the influence of environmental covariates on plant distribution is critical, especially for aquatic plant species. Climate change is likely to alter the distribution of aquatic species. However, knowledge of this change on the burden of aquatic macroorganisms is often fraught with difficulty.

International audience; Throughout the world, biodiversity and nature's contributions to people are under threat, with clear changes evident. Biodiversity and ecosystem services have particular value in Africa– yet they are negatively impacted by a range of drivers, including land use and climate change. In this communication, we show evidence of changing biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa, as well as the current most significant drivers of change. We then consider five plausible futures for the African continent, each underlain by differing assumptions. In three out of the five futures under consideration, negative impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services are likely to persist. Those two plausible futures prioritizing environment and sustainability, however, are shown as the most likely paths to achieving long term development objectives without compromising the continent's biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such a finding shows clearly that achievement of such objectives cannot be separated from full recognition of the value of such services.

Human activities cause introduction of alien species to new areas, which may cause serious problems and threats to biodiversity and ecosystem services. Omayed biosphere reserve (OBR) at the northwestern desert of Egypt, recognized for its rich flora, has recently encountered new human-induced disturbances. The current study sought to identify alien species that might have invaded OBR as a result of such activities; and to estimate the area affected by alien species using remotely-sensed data. Field surveys of 300 sampling plots representing different habitats were conducted from spring 2011 to spring 2014, whereby occurrences of alien plant species were recorded. We evaluated the use of combined environmental and remotely-sensed data for developing predictive distribution models for 21 alien species recorded in the area using Maxent modeling technique. The inclusion spectral predictors with other environmental predictors has improved the performance of the distribution models (mean test AUC 0.88 ± 0.06) for most of the alien species. Environmental variables that contributed the most to prediction of alien species distribution included soil, elevation and slope; in addition to predictors that represented disturbance proxies such as distance from irrigation canals and distance from roads. The results revealed that more than 40% of the area is predicted to be infested by at least one alien species. Results also manifest the merit of incorporating remotely-sensed data in prediction of alien species distribution, which hold promise for development of proactive management approaches to identify and control areas of high infestation of alien species and prevent further spread of invasive plants.

Invasive species are considered as one of the key threats to biodiversity and human livelihoods globally. The most effective strategy for handling invasion would be based on profiling invasive species and identifying areas at risk of invasion before they occur. The current study used a trait-environment modelling approach to identify alien species with high probability of invasiveness and combined this with the species distribution models (SDMs) to predict areas in the arid Saint Katherine Protectorate (SKP) in Egypt that were at highest risk of invasion by these species. The specific leaf area, number of leaves, soil nitrogen, and prevalence of disturbances were the most important biotic and abiotic indicators for predicting invasiveness in SKP. Of the investigated 33 alien plant species, three species were identified to have the highest probability of invasiveness, including Salvia rosmarinus, Eucalyptus globulus, and Acacia saligna. The outcome of the SDMs revealed that precipitation seasonality and temperature-related variables were the most important bioclimatic predictors determining the potential invasion risk of the studied alien species. Potential invasion is more likely in the eastern and northern parts of SKP, where biodiversity-rich common microhabitats are found and where there is a prevalence of disturbances such as tourism activities. The Etalaa, Shaq Mosa, and El-Mesirdi wadis microhabitats, in particular, were identified in the current study to be potentially highly suitable microhabitats for alien invasiveness and should be prioritized for monitoring and conservation actions. Moreover, the three identified species could be used as early indicators for microhabitats at risk of invasion along the environmental gradients of temperature and precipitation in arid ecosystems. This approach can be applied to other taxa and other ecosystems and can provide opportunities for formulating proactive management strategies against biological invasions.

In Egypt, monitoring and assessing the changes in natural biodiversity by the traditional site-based methods involve considerable effort and costs. Alternatively, remote sensing can be used as a promising technique to provide complete coverage of habitat, and vegetation species at a specific study area over a given period. Hence, this chapter considers the state-of-the-art of remote sensing for mapping the environmental variables at different locations in Egypt, including deserts, oases, sand dunes, saltmarshes, fish farms, reed vegetation, and agricultural lands. Moreover, the detections of land use/land cover (LULC), soil properties, spatial rainfall distribution, and surface runoff, as well as the management of flood and water resources, by geographical information systems (GIS) were demonstrated. The chapter undertakes useful information and knowledge about the Egyptian environment, giving multiple benefits to researchers, policy planners, and stakeholders. The study objectives are illustrated regarding previous articles reported in the literature.

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes impact the structure and functioning of ecosystems, which consequently influences the provisioning of a range of ecosystem services (ES). There is a growing consensus regarding the merit of integrating the evaluation of ES into regional policy planning. The Yangtze River is the world's third longest and supports more than 6% of its population. However, assessing the potential impacts of different resource management policies upon ES is complicated in the Yangtze basin. To remedy this, here we designed a scenario analysis-based approach that used remotely sensed data and GIS (geographic information system) to analyze the relationships between ES (i.e., water flow regulation, water purification) and policies envisioned to improve human welfare in the Chongqing municipality, in the upper reaches of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) in the Yangtze basin. This watershed area has high population density and suffers from severe flood hazard and critical pollution issues. The GEOMOD modeling technique was used to predict LULC changes according to policy planning alternatives, producing scenarios by 2050 for the TGRA watershed. The GIS-based ES model (InVEST model) was developed as a tool to inform the decision-making process with the intention of aligning conservation measures with economic development. We examine policy effectiveness by comparing three scenarios for 2050: scenario-1 maintains the current policy, with no considerations of ES; scenario-2 integrates ES into policy planning; and scenario-3 integrates ES into policy planning considering the needs of local people. Our scenario-based LULC change analysis showed that the land with large increases in water flow regulation (i.e., values ≤-3000 × 10

Intra-city railway areas are deemed large greenspaces and are believed to be key in enhancing the diversity and dynamics of urban flora. In the current study, the floristic composition and diversity along intra-city railway and tram tracks in Alexandria were surveyed. The floristic composition of the plant communities in relation to environmental factors, ecological indicators, and level of human impact was analyzed using multivariate analysis (two-way indicator species analysis (TWINSPAN) for classification and detrended correspondence analysis (DECORANA) for ordination. The multivariate ordination techniques (CCA) revealed differences in the environmental factors and climatic factors influencing the floristic composition of the railway and tram track habitats. Tram tracks suffered higher human impact while maintaining higher vitality and cover compared to train tracks. Species recorded were mainly therophytes, followed by phanerophytes and hemicryptophytes dominated by native species, however, invasive species’ contribution was higher compared to surrounding regions. The number of invasive species was greater in railway areas compared to tram track areas (19 and 15, respectively). The occurrence of two endemic species (Sinapis allionii and Sonchus macrocarpus) with limited national distribution highlights the importance of these habitats as valuable refuge areas for rare and endangered species worthy of conservation action.

The application of species distribution modeling in deserts is a useful tool for mapping species and assessing the impact of human induced changes on individual species. Such applications are still rare, and this may be attributed to the fact that much of the arid lands and deserts around the world are located in inaccessible areas. Few studies have conducted spatially explicit modeling of plant species distribution in Egypt. The random forest modeling approach was applied to climatic and land-surface parameters to predict the distribution of ten important plant species in an arid landscape in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt. The impact of changes in land use and climate on the distribution of the plant species was assessed. The results indicate that the changes in land use in the area have resulted in habitat loss for all the modeled species. Projected future changes in land use reveals that all the modeled species will continue to suffer habitat loss. The projected impact of modeled climate scenarios (A1B, A2A and B2A) on the distribution of the modeled species by 2040 varied. Some of the species were projected to be adversely affected by the changes in climate, while other species are expected to benefit from these changes. The combined impact of the changes in land use and climate pose serious threats to most of the modeled species. The study found that all the species are expected to suffer loss in habitat, except Gymnocarpos decanderus. The study highlights the importance of assessing the impact of land use/climate change scenarios on other species of restricted distribution in the area and can help shape policy and mitigation measures directed toward biodiversity conservation in Egypt.

Robust classification approaches are required for accurate classification of complex land-use/land-cover categories of desert landscapes using remotely sensed data. Machine-learning ensemble classifiers have proved to be powerful for the classification of remotely sensed data. However, they have not been evaluated for classifying land-cover categories in desert regions. In this study, the performance of two machine-learning ensemble classifiers – random forests RF and boosted artificial neural networks – is explored in the context of classification of land use/land cover of desert landscapes. The evaluation is based on the accuracy of classification of remotely sensed data, with and without integration of ancillary data. Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper data captured for a desert landscape in the north-western coastal desert of Egypt are used with ancillary variables derived from a digital terrain model to classify 13 different land-use/land-cover categories. Results show that the two ensemble methods produce accurate land-cover classifications, with and without integrating spectral data with ancillary data. In general, the overall accuracy exceeded 85% and the kappa coefficient κ attained values over 0.83. The integration of ancillary data improved the performance of the boosted artificial neural networks by approximately 5% and the random forests by 9%. The latter showed overall higher accuracy; however, boosted artificial neural networks showed better generalization ability and lower overfitting tendencies. The results reveal the merit of applying ensemble methods to integrated spectral and ancillary data of similar desert landscapes for achieving high classification accuracies.

Detecting land-use change has become of concern to environmentalists, conservationists and land use planners due to its impact on natural ecosystems. We studied land use/land cover (LULC) changes in part of the northwestern desert of Egypt and used the Markov-CA integrated approach to predict future changes. We mapped the LULC distribution of the desert landscape for 1988, 1999, and 2011. Landsat Thematic Mapper 5 data and ancillary data were classified using the random forests approach. The technique produced LULC maps with an overall accuracy of more than 90%. Analysis of LULC classes from the three dates revealed that the study area was subjected to three different stages of modification, each dominated by different land uses. The use of a spatially explicit land use change modeling approach, such as Markov-CA approach, provides ways for projecting different future scenarios. Markov-CA was used to predict land use change in 2011 and project changes in 2023 by extrapolating current trends. The technique was successful in predicting LULC distribution in 2011 and the results were comparable to the actual LULC for 2011. The projected LULC for 2023 revealed more urbanization of the landscape with potential expansion in the croplands westward and northward, an increase in quarries, and growth in residential centers. The outcomes can help management activities directed toward protection of wildlife in the area. The study can also be used as a guide to other studies aiming at projecting changes in arid areas experiencing similar land use changes.

Quantitative approaches used for detecting biodiversity ‘hotspots’ depend mostly on species occurrence data. This approach has been criticized for not recognizing all aspects of species importance. In this study, we used information on plant species to estimate a species conservation importance (SCI) and compare sites’ conservation value (SCV) at the landscape level with regard to plant species. The SCI index assesses vascular plant significance based on inclusion of many criteria accounting to various aspects of species importance. The SCI index was calculated for the 405 plant species recorded in a northwestern coastal desert landscape, and two protected areas in Egypt. The Comparison revealed that despite having the highest number of species, the northwestern coastal desert landscape ranked third to the other protected areas based on SCV. For highlighting ‘hotspots’ of conservation priority regarding vascular plants in the northwestern coastal desert landscape, the Getis-Ord G i * hotspot geostatistical analyses were applied to the per-plot number of species, maximum SCI, average SCI (ACI), and SCV values of 827 sampled plots. The results revealed the occurrence of significant hotspots for plant conservation at the south of the landscape. The application of Getis-Ord G i * geostatistical analysis to conservation indices promises to be a useful tool in identification of hotspots at the landscape level. The approach used in the current study will help in comparing and ranking regions according plant species conservation priorities. It can also be used for guiding site selection efforts regarding plant species conservation particularly in similar ecosystems.

About one third of the earth’s land surface is covered by deserts that have low and variable rainfall, nutrient-poor soils, and little vegetation cover. Here, we focus on the goods and services offered by desert ecosystems using the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt extending from Burg El-Arab to El-Salloum as an example. We conducted field surveys and collected other data to identify the goods services and provided by native plant species. A total of 322 native plant species were compiled. The direct services provided by these native plants included sources of food, medicine, and energy; indirect vegetation services included promotion of biodiversity, water storage, and soil fertility. The plant diversity in this ecosystem provided economic service benefits, such as sources of fodder, fuel-wood, and traditional medicinal plants. Changes in land use and recent ill-managed human activities may influence the availability of these services and strongly impact biodiversity and habitat availability. Although deserts are fragile and support low levels of productivity, they provide a variety of goods and services whose continuing availability is contingent upon the adoption of rational land management practices.