Monitoring the impact of climate change and human activities on grassland vegetation dynamics in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China during 2000–2015

Climate change and human activities can influence vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), a key component of natural ecosystems. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China, in spite of its significant natural and cultural values, is one of the most susceptible regions to climate change and human disturbances in the world. To assess the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation dynamics in the grassland ecosystems of the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, we applied a time-series trend analysis to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets from 2000 to 2015 and compared these spatiotemporal variations with trends in climatic variables over the same time period. The constrained ordination approach (redundancy analysis) was used to determine which climatic variables or human-related factors mostly influenced the variation of NDVI. Furthermore, in order to determine whether current conservation measures and programs are effective in ecological protection and reconstruction, we divided the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau into two parts: the Three-River Headwater conservation area (TRH zone) in the south and the non-conservation area (NTRH zone) in the north. The results indicated an overall (73.32%) increasing trend of vegetation NPP in grasslands throughout the study area. During the period 2000–2015, NDVI in the TRH and NTRH zones increased at the rates of 0.0015/a and 0.0020/a, respectively. Specifically, precipitation accounted for 9.2% of the total variation in NDVI, while temperature accounted for 13.4%. In addition, variation in vegetation NPP of grasslands responded not only to long- and short-term changes in climate, as conceptualized in non-equilibrium theory, but also to the impact of human activities and their associated perturbations. The redundancy analysis successfully separated the relative contributions of climate change and human activities, of which village population and agricultural gross domestic product were the two most important contributors to the NDVI changes, explaining 17.8% and 17.1% of the total variation of NDVI (with the total contribution >30.0%), respectively. The total contribution percentages of climate change and human activities to the NDVI variation were 27.5% and 34.9%, respectively, in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Finally, our study shows that the grassland restoration in the study area was enhanced by protection measures and programs in the TRH zone, which explained 7.6% of the total variation in NDVI.