Search

Regime shift modeling and management generally focus on tipping points, early warning indicators, and the prevention of abrupt shifts to undesirable states. Few studies assess the potential for restoring a deteriorating ecosystem that is on a transition pathway toward an undesirable state. During the transition, feedbacks that stabilize the new regime are still weak, providing an opportunity to reverse the ongoing shift. Here, we present a social-ecological model that explores both how transient social processes affect ecological dynamics in the vicinity of a tipping point to reinforce the desired state and how social mechanisms of policy implementation affect restoration time. We simulate transitions of a lake, policy making, and behavioral change by lake polluters to study the time lags that emerge as a response to the transient, deteriorating lake state. We found that restoration time is most sensitive to the timing of policy making, but that the transient dynamics of the social processes determined outcomes in nontrivial ways. Social pressure to adopt costly technology, in our case on-site sewage treatment, was up to a degree capable of compensating for delays in municipal policy making. Our analysis of interacting social and ecological time lags in the transient phase of a shallow lake highlights opportunities for restoration that a stable state analysis would miss. We discuss management perspectives for navigating critical feedbacks in a transitioning social-ecological system. The understanding of transient dynamics and the interaction with social time lags can be more relevant than solely stable states and tipping points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Livestock grazing in drylands supports pastoral livelihoods but is facing multiple changes including shocks such as severe droughts. Herdsmen specifically cite drought events as a reason for the abandonment of their transhumance practices. The purpose of this study is to assess the relevance of drought as a driving force for losses of livelihood security leading to a specific systemic change – households abandoning transhumant pastoralism. We present and apply a framework for systematic analyses of the social–ecological functioning of pastoral resource use that consists of the following components: (1) A spatially-explicit social–ecological model for analyzing the system dynamics, especially in face of severe drought in connection with other driving forces of variability, (2) an operationalized measure for assessing livelihood security, and (3) a strategy for systematic vulnerability assessments of pastoral households by scenario comparison. This approach is applied to the land use system of the transhumant pastoralists in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco. The results indicate that drought is the main threat to livelihood security in only a few cases, eventually forcing households to abandon their transhumant lifestyle. Instead, other (endogenous and exogenous) sources of variability were found to be the main driving force for vulnerability, depending on the household characteristics such as income needs and the level of pastoral mobility. We discuss implications on the role of severe drought in connection with other processes of global change such as social change and land use change for livelihood security in pastoral systems. Moreover, on the basis of these findings, we discuss how the relevance of shocks as a driving force of systemic changes in coupled human-nature-systems may be adequately explored. These conclusions concern the interplay of exogenous and endogenous factors, and unintended side-effects of intended changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land is a limited resource providing various services. Decisions on land use shape the distribution of these life support functions and thus require understanding of complex feedbacks between decisions on land use and human resource appropriation. Due to multiple nonlinear feedbacks between management, productivity, environmental quality, and human well-being, complexity is an inherent property of land systems. We present an educational game, which aims at illustrating options of sustainable land management to the interested public, students and stakeholders. The game provides the opportunity to govern a country by exploring how contrasting dimensions of sustainability (economy, environment and social conditions), can be harmonized regionally, while continuously being threatened by global trade fluctuations. The game was tested by several groups of students from high schools and universities. The feedback shows that the game is a valuable tool in environmental education initiating learning the complexity of feedbacks in land use and resources appropriation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social-ecological systems (SES) are complex adaptive systems. Social-ecological system phenomena, such as regime shifts, transformations, or traps, emerge from interactions among and between human and nonhuman entities within and across scales. Analyses of SES phenomena thus require approaches that can account for (1) the intertwinedness of social and ecological processes and (2) the ways they jointly give rise to emergent social-ecological patterns, structures, and dynamics that feedback on the entities and processes that generated them. We have developed a framework of linked action situations (AS) as a tool to capture those interactions that are hypothesized to have jointly and dynamically generated a social-ecological phenomenon of interest. The framework extends the concept of an action situation to provide a conceptualization of SES that focusses on social-ecological interactions and their links across levels. The aim of our SE-AS (social-ecological action situations) framework is to support a process of developing hypotheses about configurations of ASs that may explain an emergent social-ecological phenomenon. We suggest six social-ecological ASs along with social and ecological action situations that can commonly be found in natural resource or ecosystem management contexts. We test the ability of the framework to structure an analysis of processes of emergence by applying it to different case studies of regime shifts, traps, and sustainable resource use. The framework goes beyond existing frameworks and approaches, such as the SES framework or causal loop diagrams, by establishing a way of analyzing SES that focuses on the interplay of social-ecological interactions with the emergent outcomes they produce. We conclude by discussing the added value of the framework and discussing the different purposes it can serve: from supporting the development of theories of the emergence of social-ecological phenomena, enhancing transparency of SES understandings to serving as a boundary object for interdisciplinary knowledge integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Representing human decisions is of fundamental importance in agent-based models. However, the rationale for choosing a particular human decision model is often not sufficiently empirically or theoretically substantiated in the model documentation. Furthermore, it is difficult to compare models because the model descriptions are often incomplete, not transparent and difficult to understand. Therefore, we expand and refine the ‘ODD’ (Overview, Design Concepts and Details) protocol to establish a standard for describing ABMs that includes human decision-making (ODD + D). Because the ODD protocol originates mainly from an ecological perspective, some adaptations are necessary to better capture human decision-making. We extended and rearranged the design concepts and related guiding questions to differentiate and describe decision-making, adaptation and learning of the agents in a comprehensive and clearly structured way. The ODD + D protocol also incorporates a section on ‘Theoretical and Empirical Background’ to encourage model designs and model assumptions that are more closely related to theory. The application of the ODD + D protocol is illustrated with a description of a social–ecological ABM on water use. Although the ODD + D protocol was developed on the basis of example implementations within the socio-ecological scientific community, we believe that the ODD + D protocol may prove helpful for describing ABMs in general when human decisions are included. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The acceptance and usefulness of simulation models are often limited by the efficiency, transparency, reproducibility, and reliability of the modelling process. We address these issues by suggesting that modellers (1) "trace" the iterative modelling process by keeping a modelling notebook corresponding to the laboratory notebooks used by empirical researchers, (2) use a standardized notebook structure and terminology based on the existing TRACE documentation framework, and (3) use their notebooks to compile TRACE documents that supplement publications and reports. These practices have benefits for model developers, users, and stakeholders: improved and efficient model design, analysis, testing, and application; increased model acceptance and reuse; and replicability and reproducibility of the model and the simulation experiments. Using TRACE terminology and structure in modelling notebooks facilitates production of TRACE documents. We explain the rationale of TRACE, provide example TRACE documents, and suggest strategies for keeping "TRACE Modelling Notebooks." • The quality and reproducibility of modelling would be increased by keeping modelling notebooks. • Simulation modellers have not yet developed a strong culture of keeping notebooks. • We propose a standard format for notebooks based on the TRACE document framework. • We make recommendations about the type of information to be included in the notebooks. • We describe existing tools to keep notebooks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]