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Fires affecting large areas usually create a mosaic of recovering plant communities reflecting their pre-fire composition and local conditions of burning. However, post-fire recovery patterns may also reveal the effects of landscape heterogeneity on the natural regeneration process of plant communities. This study combines field data and remote sensing image interpretation techniques to assess the role of various landscape characteristics in the post-fire recovery process in a mountainous region of Greece burned by a severe wildfire. Remote sensing techniques were used to accurately map secluded, large burned areas. By introducing a temporal component, we explored the correlation between post-fire regeneration and underlying topography, soils and basement rock. Pre-fire forest cover was reduced by more than half 8 years after fire. Regarding the dominant pre-fire forest trees, Abies cephalonica did not regenerate well after fire and most pre-fire stands were converted to grasslands and shrublands. In contrast, Pinus nigra regenerated sufficiently to return to its pre-fire cover, especially in areas underlain by softer basement rock. The use of different time series of high-resolution images improved the quality of the results obtained, justifying their use despite their high cost. © 2019 Journal compilation IAWF 2019 Open Access.

Understanding how future climate periods influence fire behaviour is important for organizing fire suppression strategy and management. The meteorological factors are the most critical parameters affecting fire behaviour in natural landscapes; hence, predicting climate change effects on fire behaviour could be an option for optimizing firefighting resource management. In this study, we assessed climate change impacts on fire behaviour parameters (rate of fire growth, rate of spread and fireline intensity) for a typical Mediterranean landscape of Greece. We applied the minimum travel time fire simulation algorithm by using the FlamMap software to characterize potential response of fire behaviour for three summer periods. The results consisted of simulated spatially explicit fire behaviour parameters of the present climate (2000) and three future summer periods of 2050, 2070 and 2100, under the A1B emissions scenario. Statistical significant differences in simulation outputs among the four examined periods were obtained by using the Tukey’s significance test. Statistical significant differences were mainly obtained for 2100 compared to the present climate due to the significant projected increase in the wind speed by the end of the century. The analysis and the conclusions of the study can be important inputs for fire suppression strategy and fire management (deployment of fire suppression resources, firefighter safety and exposure, transportation logistics) quantifying the effect that the expected future climate periods can have on fire suppression difficulty in Mediterranean landscapes. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

The use of spatially explicit fire spread models to assess fire propagation and behaviour has several applications for fire management and research. We used the FARSITE simulator to predict the spread of a set of wildfires that occurred along an east-west gradient of the Euro-Mediterranean countries. The main purpose of this work was to evaluate the overall accuracy of the simulator and to quantify the effects of standard vs custom fuel models on fire simulation performance. We also analysed the effects of different fuel models and slope classes on the accuracy of FARSITE predictions. To run the simulations, several input layers describing each study area were acquired, and their effect on simulation outputs was analysed. Site-specific fuel models and canopy inputs were derived either from existing vegetation information and field sampling or through remote-sensing data. The custom fuel models produced an increase in simulation accuracy, and results were nearly unequivocal for all the case studies examined. We suggest that spatially explicit fire spread simulators and custom fuel models specifically developed for the heterogeneous landscapes of Mediterranean ecosystems can help improve fire hazard mapping and optimise fuel management practices across the Euro-Mediterranean region. © IAWF 2016.

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland–urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source–sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey’s significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media New York.

The aims of this study were to map and analyze land use/land cover transitions and landscape changes in the Parnitha and Penteli mountains, which surround the Athens metropolitan area of Attica, Greece over a period of 62. years.In order to quantify the changes between land categories through time, we computed the transition matrices for three distinct periods (1945-1960, 1960-1996, and 1996-2007), on the basis of available aerial photographs used to create multi-temporal maps. We identified systematic and stationary transitions with multi-level intensity analysis.Forest areas in Parnitha remained the dominant class of land cover throughout the 62. years studied, while transitional woodlands and shrublands were the main classes involved in LULC transitions. Conversely, in Penteli, transitional woodlands, along with shrublands, dominated the study site. The annual rate of change was faster in the first and third time intervals, compared to the second (1960-1996) time interval, in both study areas. The category level analysis results indicated that in both sites annual crops avoided to gain while discontinuous urban fabric avoided to lose areas. At the transition level of analysis, similarities as well as distinct differences existed between the two areas. In both sites the gaining pattern of permanent crops with respect to annual crops and the gain of forest with respect to transitional woodland/shrublands were stationary across the three time intervals. Overall, we identified more systematic transitions and stationary processes in Penteli.We discussed these LULC changes and associated them with human interference (activity) and other major socio-economic developments that were simultaneously occurring in the area. The different patterns of change of the areas, despite their geographical proximity, throughout the period of analysis imply that site-specific studies are needed in order to comprehensively assess the driving forces and develop models of landscape transformation in Mediterranean areas. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Historical fire records and meteorological observations, spanning more than 1 century (1894-2010), were gathered and assembled in a database, to provide long-term fire-weather associations. We investigated the relationships between forest fire activity and meteorological parameters and sought to find temporal patterns and trends in these historical records and to identify any linkages between meteorological parameters and fire occurrence in the eastern Mediterranean region. Trend analysis of the time series revealed a statistically significant increase in the number of fires and air temperature, particularly after the mid-1970s. Fire occurrence, expressed as the annual number of fires and total burnt area, was strongly correlated with the mean maximum and the absolute maximum air temperature which, in turn, was related to the occurrence of summer heat waves. Total burnt area was also strongly negatively correlated with fire-season precipitation, and positively correlated with 2-year-lagged annual and summer precipitation, underlying the effect of precipitation in controlling fuel production and moisture. These findings support the argument that although annually lagged precipitation totals may have a marginal effect on fire risk by influencing biomass production and accumulation, the lag0 weather parameters are the main drivers of fire spread by directly controlling fuel moisture. © 2013 IAWF.

The deliverable addresses the analysis of the all the environmental and anthropogenic variables from which fire danger and hazard are dependent upon. Fire danger is the resultant of many factors affecting fire occurrence (and therefore fire ignition and spread). Such factors are meant as variables that have to be properly mapped in order to feed a given model and produce a fire risk map. The deliverable is focused on the detailed description of such variables, addressing definitions, estimation and mapping issues for each one of them. The methods to combine the variables and derive risk maps will be addressed in another deliverable of EUFIRELAB (D-08-05) which will be strictly linked to the present one. Since fire danger, hazard and risk are terms largely prone to different interpretations and consequently misunderstanding both within the operational and scientific wildland fire communities, chapter 2 is devoted to review the different meanings given to such terms in the literature, also taking into account recent reviews that have been done in other projects. In addition, since the analysis of risk variables, and therefore the derived fire risk assessment, is strongly dependent on the time and spatial scale addressed and on the fire management context in which ultimately the fire risk information has to be used, chapter 3 is devoted to provide a general reference framework in this respect. In this chapter the relevant time and spatial frames for fire risk assessment and the operational background where the risk information has to be used are analysed. In chapter 4 the detailed description of individual variable is given, followed by bibliographical references. In chapter 6, by case study of fire risk analysis, which constitutes a first example of variable integration, which will be dealt in more details in a future mentioned deliverable of Unit 08., Le rapport présente l'analyse de toutes les variables environnementales et anthropiques dont dépend le risque d`incendie. Le risque d`incendie est la résultante de nombreux facteurs affectant l'occurrence d`un feu. De tels facteurs sont considérés comme des variables qui doivent être correctement cartographiées pour alimenter un modèle donné et produire une carte de risque d'incendie. Le rapport est concentré sur la description détaillée de telles variables, en fixant la définition, l`estimation et la cartographie de chacune d'entre elles. Les méthodes pour combiner les variables et les cartes de risque qui en découlent feront l`objet d`un prochain rapport. Les termes de danger, aléa et risque sont des termes en grande partie enclins aux interprétations différentes et par conséquent mal compris par les communautés de feu de forêt tant opérationnelles que scientifiques. Le chapitre 2 est consacré à passer en revue les différentes significations données à de tels termes dans la littérature . De plus, l'analyse des variables de risque et donc l'évaluation de danger d'incendie associée, dépend fortement du temps, de l'échelle spatiale et du contexte de gestion du feu dans lequel en fin de compte les informations de risque d'incendie doivent être utilisées. Le chapitre 3 est consacré à la production d`une référence générale. Dans ce chapitre sont analysés le temps et les dimensions spatiales pour l'évaluation du risque d'incendie ainsi que le contexte opérationnel dans lequel les informations de risque doivent être utilisées. Dans le chapitre 4 on donne la description détaillée de chaque variable, suivie par de références bibliographiques. Dans le chapitre 6, une étude de cas d'analyse du risque d'incendie est présentée, elle constitue un premier exemple d'intégration de ces variables.

This deliverable is strongly related and in a sense the succession of the deliverable D-08-02 "Wildland Fire Danger and Hazards: a state of the Art". In the current deliverable the main interest is in the methods which can be applied for fire danger estimation based on the variables analyzed in the previous deliverable. In chapter 2 a review of the methods is presented which are categorized according tot he main temporal scales existing in fire risk estimation; namely short-term risk and long-term risk. Also a special reference is made for the spatial interpolation procedure since this technique is very crucial for the mapping of point observations related to fire danger estimation. In chapter 3 a recording of the methods (both short term and long term) in operational use, in four Mediterranean countries (Italy, France, Greece and Spain is presented along with some examples of certain applications. Furthermore in chapter 4 a survey of the available variables for fire danger estimation is attempted, for the four Mediterranean countries mentioned above. This chapter along with chapter 5 which includes a review of the existing web interfaces for fire danger mapping, provides some preliminary information for the deliverables of unit 8 coming next., Ce rapport fait suite au produit D-08-02 "Wildland Fire Danger and Hazards : a State of the Art". L'objectif principal de ce rapport est de décrire les méthodes qui peuvent être appliquées pour évaluer le risque d'incendie à partir des variables décrites dans le produit D-08-02. Dans le chapitre 2, les différentes méthodes sont passées en revue et classées selon les principales échelles de temps dans l'estimation du risque, c'est-à-dire le court et le long terme. Un éclairage spécial est donné sur la procédure d'interpolation spatiale car cette technique est très importante pour la cartographie de points d'observation. Le chapitre 3 présente une liste de méthodes (à la fois sur le court et le long terme) qui sont utilisées de manière opérationnelle, dans quatre pays méditerranéen (Italie, France, Grèce Espagne), avec quelques exemples d'application. Enfin, le chapitre 4 fournit une liste de différentes variables utilisées dans l'estimation du risque d'incendie, pour les quatre pays méditerranéens mentionnés ci-dessus. Ce chapitre, ainsi que le chapitre 5 qui propose une liste des interfaces web de cartographie du risque, fournit quelques informations préliminaires pour le produit suivant de l'unité 8.