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An extensive investigation of ships’ logs, as part of the ‘Old Weather’ citizen-science project, identified a sunspot observation made from HMS Hilary on 10 February 1917. This sunspot record was accompanied by detailed meteorological records that have enabled a reconstruction of the conditions under which the observation was made (overcast with detached clouds). Although there is no incontrovertible evidence that this was an unaided-eye observation, comparison with an unaided-eye observation recorded on the 11 February 1917 in a local treatise from Henan province in China confirms that this sunspot group was visible to the unaided eye. White-light photographs from the Dehra Dun Observatory confirm the detailed description of the sunspot group provided by the naval observer. Moreover, comparisons with tabular data published by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, confirm the statement that this was an unusually large sunspot group. Indeed, on 11 February 1917 the area of the sunspot group was greater than the area of any sunspot group recorded previously at the Royal Observatory, Greenwich. A comparison with a modern unaided-eye observation confirms that it is possible to observe sunspots under meteorological conditions similar to those experienced on-board HMS Hilary.

Large sunspots can be observed with the unaided eye under suitable atmospheric seeing conditions. Such observations are of particular value because the frequency of their appearance provides an approximate indication of the prevailing level of solar activity. Unaided-eye sunspot (UES) observations can be traced back well before the start of telescopic observations of the Sun, especially in the East Asian historical records. It is therefore important to compare more modern, UES observations with the results of telescopic sunspot observations, to gain a better understanding of the nature of the UES records. A previous comparison of Chinese UES records and Greenwich photo-heliographic results between 1874 and 1918 indicated that a few of the UES were apparently not supported by direct photographic evidence of at least one sunspot with a large area. This article reveals that one of the Chinese unaided-eye observations had possibly captured the transit of Venus on 9 December 1874. The Chinese sunspot records on this date are compared with Western sunspot observations on the same day. It is concluded that sunspots on the solar disk were quite small and the transit of Venus was probably misinterpreted as a sunspot by the Chinese local scholars. This case indicates that sunspots or comparable "obscuring" objects with an area as large as 1000 millionths of the solar disk could easily have been seen with the unaided eye under suitable seeing conditions. It also confirms the visibility of sunspots near the solar limb with the unaided eye. This study provides an explanation of the apparent discrepancy between the Chinese UES observation on 9 December 1874 and the Western sunspot observations using telescopes, as well as a basis for further discussion on the negative pairs in 1900 and 1911, apparently without sufficiently large area., main text 14 pages, appendices 4 pages, and references 5 pages, and 4 figures: accepted for publication in Solar Physics

Sunspots can be seen with the unaided eye when they are sufficiently large. Due to the known correlation between the occurrence of unaided-eye sunspot observations and the phase of the solar cycle, these observations frequently provide some insight into the level of solar activity in the past. In this context, we have identified a few unaided-eye sunspot observations in late 1769 in East Asia, analyzed their observational conditions, and compared them with contemporary telescopic sunspot observations. The East Asian records indicate that large sunspots were seen with the aid of a temporary coverage of cloud mist on 1769 November 18 and 20. The contemporary sunspot drawings by Christian Horrebow show extremely large sunspot groups near the disk centre for each occasion. These unaided-eye sunspot observations occurred immediately after the maximum of Solar Cycle 2 and provide a snapshot of the enhanced level of solar activity at that time.

The enhancement of carbon-14 in tree rings around AD 774/775 has generated wide interest in solar activity at that time. The historical auroral records have been examined critically. Of particular interest was the "white vapour" observed in China on AD 776 January 12/13. Both Usoskin et al. (2013, Astron. Astrophys. 55, L3; U13) and Stephenson (2015, Adv. Sp. Res. 55, 1537; S15) interpreted this record as an auroral display. Subsequently, Neuh\"auser and Neuh\"auser (2015, Astron. Nachr. 336, 225; NN15) proposed five "criteria" for the likeliness of aurorae and on this basis rejected an auroral interpretation. Instead, they interpreted it as a lunar halo, and suggested there were no auroral records as a proxy of solar activity in the interval AD 774-785. We consider if their "lunar halo hypothesis" and their auroral criteria could be of use in future researches on historical auroral candidates. We first show a counter-example for the lunar halo hypothesis from a parallel record on 1882 November 17, which was seen as a whitish colour, in the southerly direction, and near the Moon. We then consider NN15's criteria on colour, direction, and sky brightness and investigate other counter-examples from early-modern auroral observations. We also consider the extension of the white vapour in AD 776 according to the distribution of Chinese asterisms, and show that its large extension was inconsistent with the lunar halo hypothesis. Conversely, the streaks of white vapour penetrating the eight Chinese asterisms can be reproduced if we consider auroral-ray structures at altitudes between 97 km and 170 km, along geomagnetic field lines between the L-shells L=1.55 and 1.64. Our investigations show that we should consider candidate auroral records in historical documents not on the basis of the newly suggested a priori criteria by NN15 but on all the available observational evidence., Comment: 28 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in Solar Physics on 5 February 2019

The anomalous concentration of radiocarbon in 774/775 attracted intense discussion on its origin, including the possible extreme solar event(s) exceeding any events in observational history. Anticipating such extreme solar events, auroral records were also surveyed in historical documents and those including the red celestial sign after sunset in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (ASC) were subjected to consideration. Usoskin et al. (2013: U13) interpreted this record as an aurora and suggested enhanced solar activity around 774/775. Conversely, Neuhauser and Neuhauser (2015a, 2015b: N15a and N15b) interpreted "after sunset" as during sunset or twilight; they considered this sign as a halo display and suggested a solar minimum around 774. However, so far these records have not been discussed in comparison with eyewitness auroral records during the known extreme space-weather events, although they were discussed in relationship with potential extreme events in 774/775. Therefore, we reconstruct the observational details based on the original records in the ASC and philological references, compare them with eyewitness auroral observations during known extreme space-weather events, and consider contemporary solar activity. We clarify the observation was indeed "after sunset", reject the solar halo hypothesis, define the observational time span between 25 Mar. 775 and 25 Dec. 777, and note the parallel halo drawing in 806 in the ASC shown in N15b was not based on the original observation in England. We show examples of eyewitness auroral observations during twilight in known space-weather events, and this celestial sign does not contradict the observational evidence. Accordingly, we consider this event happened after the onset of the event in 774/775, but shows relatively enhanced solar activity, with other historical auroral records in the mid-770s, as also confirmed by the Be data from ice cores., Comment: main text 24 pages, references 9 pages, appendices 9 pages, 8 figures, and 4 tables (some of these figures are shown only in record version)

The critical interaction between the magnetosphere and ionosphere during intense geomagnetic storms continues to be important to space weather studies. In this investigation, we present and discuss the ionospheric F-region observations in the equatorial, low- and mid-latitude regions in both hemispheres over American sector during the intense geomagnetic storm on 01–03 June 2013. The geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst of −119 nT at 0900 UT on 01 June. For this investigation, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from a chain of 10 GPS stations and the ionospheric parameters foF2 and h′F from a chain of 4 digital ionosonde stations, covering from equatorial to mid-latitudes regions over American sector during the entire storm-time period 31 May–03 June 2013. In addition, the plasma density observed from DMSP satellites is presented. The results obtained show that during the sudden impulse/SSC and throughout the main phase of the storm, a large positive phase was observed in mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere, which could be due to changes in the thermospheric wind circulation. On the other hand, in the mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere, no deviations are observed in VTEC and foF2 when compared to the quiet period. During the long recovery phase of the storm on 01–02 June, a north-south asymmetry is observed in the F-region. The study confirms the dominant role of the thermospheric winds on north-south asymmetry in the ionospheric F-region. The ionospheric irregularities are found to be confined in the equatorial region, of the bottomside spread-F type, before and during the geomagnetic storm. It shows that the geomagnetic storm did not affect the generation or suppression of ionospheric irregularities at the stations investigated. Fil: de Abreu, A.J.. Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica; Brasil Fil: Martin, I.M.. Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica; Brasil Fil: Fagundes, P.R.. Universidade do Vale do Paraíba; Brasil Fil: Venkatesh, K.. Universidade do Vale do Paraíba; Brasil Fil: Batista, I.S.. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Namibia Fil: de Jesus, R.. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Namibia Fil: Rockenback, M.. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; Namibia Fil: Coster, A.. Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Estados Unidos Fil: Gende, Mauricio Alfredo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas; Argentina Fil: Alves, M.A.. Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica; Brasil Fil: Wild, M.. Science and Technology Facilities Council; Reino Unido

A new sunspot and faculae digital dataset for the interval 1874 – 1955 has been prepared under the auspices of the NOAA National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC). This digital dataset contains measurements of the positions and areas of both sunspots and faculae published initially by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, and subsequently by the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO), under the title Greenwich Photo-heliographic Results (GPR), 1874 – 1976. Quality control (QC) procedures based on logical consistency have been used to identify the more obvious errors in the RGO publications. Typical examples of identifiable errors are North versus South errors in specifying heliographic latitude, errors in specifying heliographic (Carrington) longitude, errors in the dates and times, errors in sunspot group numbers, arithmetic errors in the summation process, and the occasional omission of solar ephemerides. Although the number of errors in the RGO publications is remarkably small, an initial table of necessary corrections is provided for the interval 1874 – 1917. Moreover, as noted in the preceding companion papers, the existence of two independently prepared digital datasets, which both contain information on sunspot positions and areas, makes it possible to outline a preliminary strategy for the development of an even more accurate digital dataset. Further work is in progress to generate an extremely reliable sunspot digital dataset, based on the long programme of solar observations supported first by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, and then by the Royal Greenwich Observatory.

Attention is drawn to the existence of errors in the original digital dataset containing sunspot data extracted from certain sections of the printed Greenwich Photo-heliographic Results (GPR) 1874 – 1976. Calculating the polar coordinates from the heliographic coordinates and comparing them with the recorded polar coordinates reveals that there are both isolated and systematic errors in the original sunspot digital dataset, particularly during the early years (1874 – 1914). It should be noted that most of these errors are present in the compiled sunspot digital dataset and not in the original printed copies of the Greenwich Photo-heliographic Results. Surprisingly, many of the errors in the digitised positions of sunspot groups are apparently in the measured polar coordinates, not the derived heliographic coordinates. The mathematical equations that are used to convert between heliographic and polar coordinate systems are formulated and then used to calculate revised (digitised) polar coordinates for sunspot groups, on the assumption that the heliographic coordinates of every sunspot group are correct. The additional complication of requiring accurate solar ephemerides in order to solve the mathematical equations is discussed in detail. It is shown that the isolated and systematic errors, which are prevalent in the sunspot digital dataset during the early years, disappear if revised polar coordinates are used instead. A comprehensive procedure for checking the original sunspot digital dataset is formulated in an Appendix.

The measurements of sunspot positions and areas that were published initially by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, and subsequently by the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO), as the Greenwich Photo-heliographic Results (GPR), 1874 – 1976, exist in both printed and digital forms. These printed and digital sunspot datasets have been archived in various libraries and data centres. Unfortunately, however, typographic, systematic and isolated errors can be found in the various datasets. The purpose of the present paper is to begin the task of identifying and correcting these errors. In particular, the intention is to provide in one foundational paper all the necessary background information on the original solar observations, their various applications in scientific research, the format of the different digital datasets, the necessary definitions of the quantities measured, and the initial identification of errors in both the printed publications and the digital datasets. Two companion papers address the question of specific identifiable errors; namely, typographic errors in the printed publications, and both isolated and systematic errors in the digital datasets. The existence of two independently prepared digital datasets, which both contain information on sunspot positions and areas, makes it possible to outline a preliminary strategy for the development of an even more accurate digital dataset. Further work is in progress to generate an extremely reliable sunspot digital dataset, based on the programme of solar observations supported for more than a century by the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, and the Royal Greenwich Observatory. This improved dataset should be of value in many future scientific investigations.

The study of historical great geomagnetic storms is crucial for assessing the possible risks to the technological infrastructure of a modern society, caused by extreme space–weather events. The normal benchmark has been the great geomagnetic storm of 1859 September, the so-called "Carrington Event." However, there are numerous records of another great geomagnetic storm in 1872 February. This storm, which occurred about 12 years after the Carrington Event, resulted in comparable magnetic disturbances and auroral displays over large areas of the Earth. We have revisited this great geomagnetic storm in terms of the auroral and sunspot records in historical documents from East Asia. In particular, we have surveyed the auroral records from East Asia and estimated the equatorward boundary of the auroral oval to be near 242 invariant latitude, on the basis that the aurora was seen near the zenith at Shanghai (20° magnetic latitude, MLAT). These results confirm that this geomagnetic storm of 1872 February was as extreme as the Carrington Event, at least in terms of the equatorward motion of the auroral oval. Indeed, our results support the interpretation of the simultaneous auroral observations made at Bombay (10° MLAT). The East Asian auroral records have indicated extreme brightness, suggesting unusual precipitation of high-intensity, low-energy electrons during this geomagnetic storm. We have compared the duration of the East Asian auroral displays with magnetic observations in Bombay and found that the auroral displays occurred in the initial phase, main phase, and early recovery phase of the magnetic storm.

We analyze the causes of the century-long increase in geomagnetic activity, quantified by annual means of the aa index, using observations of interplanetary space, galactic cosmic rays, the ionosphere, and the auroral electrojet, made during the last three solar cycles. The effects of changes in ionospheric conductivity, the Earth's dipole tilt, and magnetic moment are shown to be small; only changes in near-Earth interplanetary space make a significant contribution to the long-term increase in activity. We study the effects of the interplanetary medium by applying dimensional analysis to generate the optimum solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling function, having an unprecedentedly high correlation coefficient of 0.97. Analysis of the terms of the coupling function shows that the largest contributions to the drift in activity over solar cycles 20-22 originate from rises in the average interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, solar wind concentration, and speed; average IMF orientation has grown somewhat less propitious for causing geomagnetic activity. The combination of these factors explains almost all of the 39% rise in aa observed over the last three solar cycles. Whereas the IMF strength varies approximately in phase with sunspot numbers, neither its orientation nor the solar wind density shows any coherent solar cycle variation. The solar wind speed peaks strongly in the declining phase of even-numbered cycles and can be identified as the chief cause of the phase shift between the sunspot numbers and the aa index. The rise in the IMF magnitude, the largest single contributor to the drift in geomagnetic activity, is shown to be caused by a rise in the solar coronal magnetic field, consistent with a rise in the coronal source field, modeled from photospheric observations, and an observed decay in cosmic ray fluxes.

A variety of operational systems are vulnerable to disruption by solar disturbances brought to the Earth by the solar wind. Of particular importance to navigation systems are energetic charged particles which can generate temporary malfunctions and permanent damage in satellites. Modern spacecraft technology may prove to be particularly at risk during the next maximum of the solar cycle. In addition, the associated ionospheric disturbances cause phase shifts of transionospheric and ionosphere-reflected signals, giving positioning errors and loss of signal for GPS and Loran-C positioning systems and for over-the-horizon radars. We now have sufficient understanding of the solar wind, and how it interacts with the Earth's magnetic field, to predict statistically the likely effects on operational systems over the next solar cycle. We also have a number of advanced ways of detecting and tracking these disturbances through space but we cannot, as yet, provide accurate forecasts of individual disturbances that could be used to protect satellites and to correct errors. In addition, we have recently discovered long-term changes in the Sun, which mean that the number and severity of the disturbances to operational systems are increasing.

Fabry Perot Interferometer measurements of neutral winds and European Incoherent SCATter radar measurements of plasma velocities have shown a significant equinoctial asymmetry in the average behavior of the thermosphere and ionosphere above northern Scandinavia. Existing standard models of the upper atmosphere use forcing functions that are symmetric about. the solstices, therefore these observations are unexpected. It is suggested that the asymmetry arises from the diurnal variation in the cross polar cap potential difference (CPCPD) because there is a 12 hour phase difference between the variations at the March and September equinoxes. The variation in the CPCPD is caused by an annual and diurnal variation in the orientation of the magnetosphere with respect to the interplanetary magnetic field. This is known as the Russell-McPherron (R-M) effect. The plausibility of this explanation of the equinoctial asymmetry in thermospheric winds is supported by investigation of the effect of their geomagnetic history, i.e., the repercussions on the winds of the activity levels in the few hours prior to the observation. The consequences of the R-M effect have been simulated in the University College London/Sheffield/Space Environment Laboratory coupled thermosphere-ionosphere model by imposing a diurnally varying high-latitude electric field pattern. The results are used to test the predictions, given in an earlier paper, of the average behavior expected at other high-latitude sites. A corollary to the study is that the evidence presented here implies that the auroral oval may be smaller at solar minimum, which is also unexpected.

Superposed epoch studies have been carried out in order to determine the ionospheric response at mid-latitudes to southward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This is compared with the geomagnetic response, as seen in the indices Kp, AE and Dst. The solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic data used were hourly averages from the years 1967–1989 and thus cover a full 22-year cycle in the solar magnetic field. These data were divided into subsets, determined by the magnitudes of the southward turnings and the concomitant increase in solar wind pressure. The superposed epoch studies were carried out using the time of the southward turning as time zero. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere is studied by looking at the F-layer critical frequencies, foF2, from hourly soundings by the Slough ionosonde and their deviation from the monthly median values, δfoF2. For the southward turnings with a change in Bz of δBz > 11.5 nT accompanied by a solar wind dynamic pressure P exceeding 5 nPa, the F region critical frequency, foF2, shows a marked decrease, reaching a minimum value about 20 h after the southward turning. This recovers to pre-event values over the subsequent 24 h, on average. The Dst index shows the classic storm-time decrease to about –60 nT. Four days later, the index has still to fully recover and is at about –25 nT. Both the Kp and AE indices show rises before the southward turnings, when the IMF is strongly northward but the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced. The average AE index does register a clear isolated pulse (averaging 650 nT for 2 h, compared with a background peak level of near 450 nT at these times) showing enhanced energy deposition at high latitudes in substorms but, like Kp, remains somewhat enhanced for several days, even after the average IMF has returned to zero after 1 day. This AE background decays away over several days as the Dst index recovers, indicating that there is some contamination of the currents observed at the AE stations by the continuing enhanced equatorial ring current. For data averaged over all seasons, the critical frequencies are depressed at Slough by 1.3 MHz, which is close to the lower decile of the overall distribution of δfoF2 values. Taking 30-day periods around summer and winter solstice, the largest depression is 1.6 and 1.2 MHz, respectively. This seasonal dependence is confirmed by a similar study for a Southern Hemisphere station, Argentine Island, giving peak depressions of 1.8 MHz and 0.5 MHz for summer and winter. For the subset of turnings where δBz > 11.5 nT and P ≤ 5 nPa, the response of the geomagnetic indices is similar but smaller, while the change in δfoF2 has all but disappeared. This confirms that the energy deposited at high latitudes, which leads to the geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances following a southward turning of the IMF, increases with the energy density (dynamic pressure) of the solar wind flow. The magnitude of all responses are shown to depend on δBz. At Slough, the peak depression always occurs when Slough rotates into the noon sector. The largest ionospheric response is for southward turnings seen between 15–21 UT.

A large equinoctial asymmetry has been observed in thermospheric winds and ion velocities at high latitude sites in northern Scandinavia. Throughout the solar cycle, average nighttime thermospheric meridional winds are larger in spring than autumn despite similar levels of solar insolation. The average ion velocities are also larger in spring than autumn at solar maximum, but at solar minimum this position is reversed. Numerical simulations of the thermosphere and ionosphere have not predicted such asymmetries because they generally assume forcing functions that are symmetric about the solstices. The proposed explanation lies in the annual and diurnal variation in solar wind-magnetosphere coupling caused by changes in the orientation of the geomagnetic pole, and hence the magnetosphere, with respect to the average orientation of the IMF (the Russell-McPherron effect). This causes a 12-hour phase difference between the times of maximum solar wind-magnetosphere coupling at the two equinoxes. In addition, the orientation of the geomagnetic axis with respect to the average IMF is such that > 0 for the March equinox and By*Bz> < 0 for September. This results in a further source of asymmetry of forcing of the high-latitude ionosphere as the result of electric fields associated with the four sign combinations of By and Bz. Several predictions arise from the explanation given: for example, a high-latitude station measuring thermospheric neutral winds in Alaska, 180° in longitude from Kiruna, might be expected to see nighttime thermospheric winds that are larger in the autumn than in the spring.

The recurrence rate of flux transfer events (FTEs) observed near the dayside magnetopause is discussed. A survey of magnetopause observations by the ISEE satellites shows that the distribution of the intervals between FTE signatures has a mode value of 3 min, but is highly skewed, having upper and lower decile values of 1.5 min and 18.5 min, respectively. The mean value is found to be 8 min, consistent with previous surveys of magnetopause data. The recurrence of quasi-periodic events in the dayside auroral ionosphere is frequently used as evidence for an association with magnetopause FTEs, and the distribution of their repetition intervals should be matched to that presented here if such an association is to be confirmed. A survey of 1 year's 15-s data on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) suggests that the derived distribution could arise from fluctuations in the IMF Bz component, rather than from a natural oscillation frequency of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system.

The solar wind is an extended ionized gas of very high electrical conductivity, and therefore drags some magnetic flux out of the Sun to fill the heliosphere with a weak interplanetary magnetic field1,2. Magnetic reconnection—the merging of oppositely directed magnetic fields—between the interplanetary field and the Earth's magnetic field allows energy from the solar wind to enter the near-Earth environment. The Sun's properties, such as its luminosity, are related to its magnetic field, although the connections are still not well understood3,4. Moreover, changes in the heliospheric magnetic field have been linked with changes in total cloud cover over the Earth, which may influence global climate5. Here we show that measurements of the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field reveal that the total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4 since 1964: surrogate measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field indicate that the increase since 1901 has been by a factor of 2.3. This increase may be related to chaotic changes in the dynamo that generates the solar magnetic field. We do not yet know quantitatively how such changes will influence the global environment.

Stellar astronomy tells us much about the long-term evolution of our Sun while forensic evidence (for example, cosmic-ray products in ice cores) gives us indications of its fluctuations over the last millennium. However, such studies do not give us a sufficiently detailed understanding of solar change over the last century to allow us to detect and quantify any role that the Sun might have played in the observed rise in average surface temperatures on Earth. This paper describes recent research that has filled this gap by applying advances in our understanding of the effects and structure of the solar wind to historical data on the Earth's magnetic field.

The daily number of sunspot groups on the solar disk, as recorded by the programme of sunspot observations performed under the aegis of the Royal Observatory, Greenwich, UK, and subsequently the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO), is re-examined for the interval 1874 – 1885. The motivation for this re-examination is the key role that the RGO number of sunspot groups plays in the calculation of Group Sunspot Numbers (Hoyt and Schatten in Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998a; Solar Phys. 181, 491, 1998b). A new dataset has been derived for the RGO daily number of sunspot groups in the interval 1874 – 1885. This new dataset attempts to achieve complete consistency between the sunspot data presented in the three main sections of the RGO publications and also incorporates all known errata and additions. It is argued that days for which no RGO solar photograph was acquired originally should be regarded, without exception, as being days without meaningful sunspot data. The daily number of sunspot groups that Hoyt and Schatten assign to days without RGO photographs is frequently just a lower limit. Moreover, in the absence of a solar photograph, the daily number of sunspot groups is inevitably uncertain because of the known frequent occurrence of sunspot groups that exist for just a single day. The elimination of days without photographs changes the list of inter-comparison days on which both the primary RGO observer and a specified secondary comparison observer saw at least one sunspot group. The resulting changes in the personal correction factors of secondary observers then change the personal correction factors of overlapping tertiary observers, etc. In this way, numerical changes in the personal correction factors of secondary observers propagate away from the interval 1874 – 1885, thereby potentially changing the arithmetical calculation of Group Sunspot Numbers over an appreciably wider time interval.

We report on the first realtime ionospheric predictions network and its capabilities to ingest a global database and forecast F-layer characteristics and “in situ” electron densities along the track of an orbiting spacecraft. A global network of ionosonde stations reported around-the-clock observations of F-region heights and densities, and an on-line library of models provided forecasting capabilities. Each model was tested against the incoming data; relative accuracies were intercompared to determine the best overall fit to the prevailing conditions; and the best-fit model was used to predict ionospheric conditions on an orbit-to-orbit basis for the 12-hour period following a twice-daily model test and validation procedure. It was found that the best-fit model often provided averaged (i.e., climatologically-based) accuracies better than 5% in predicting the heights and critical frequencies of the F-region peaks in the latitudinal domain of the TSS-1R flight path. There was a sharp contrast, however, in model-measurement comparisons involving predictions of actual, unaveraged, along-track densities at the 295 km orbital altitude of TSS-1R. In this case, extrema in the first-principle models varied by as much as an order of magnitude in density predictions, and the best-fit models were found to disagree with the “in situ” observations of Ne by as much as 140%. The discrepancies are interpreted as a manifestation of difficulties in accurately and self-consistently modeling the external controls of solar and magnetospheric inputs and the spatial and temporal variabilities in electric fields, thermospheric winds, plasmaspheric fluxes, and chemistry.

On 14 January 2001, the four Cluster spacecraft passed through the northern magnetospheric mantle in close conjunction to the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) and approached the post-noon dayside magnetopause over Green-land between 13:00 and 14:00 UT. During that interval, a sudden reorganisation of the high-latitude dayside convection pattern occurred after 13:20 UT, most likely caused by a direction change of the Solar wind magnetic field. The result was an eastward and poleward directed flow-channel, as monitored by the SuperDARN radar network and also by arrays of ground-based magnetometers in Canada, Greenland and Scandinavia. After an initial eastward and later poleward expansion of the flow-channel between 13:20 and 13:40 UT, the four Cluster spacecraft, and the field line footprints covered by the eastward looking scan cycle of the Söndre Strömfjord incoherent scatter radar were engulfed by cusp-like precipitation with transient magnetic and electric field signatures. In addition, the EISCAT Svalbard Radar detected strong transient effects of the convection reorganisation, a poleward moving precipitation, and a fast ion flow-channel in association with the auroral structures that suddenly formed to the west and north of the radar. From a detailed analysis of the coordinated Cluster and ground-based data, it was found that this extraordinary transient convection pattern, indeed, had moved the cusp precipitation from its former pre-noon position into the late post-noon sector, allowing for the first and quite unexpected encounter of the cusp by the Cluster spacecraft. Our findings illustrate the large amplitude of cusp dynamics even in response to moderate solar wind forcing. The global ground-based data proves to be an invaluable tool to monitor the dynamics and width of the affected magnetospheric regions.Key words. Magnetospheric cusp, ionosphere, reconnection, convection flow-channel, Cluster, ground-based observations