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In this study, we examine a large number of plasma structures (filaments), observed with the Cluster spacecraft during 2 years (2007-2008) in the dayside magnetosphere but consisting of magnetosheath plasma. To reduce the effects observed in the cusp regions and on magnetosphere flanks, we consider these events predominantly inside the narrow cone less than 30 about the subsolar point. Two important features of these filaments are (i) their stable antisunward (earthward) motion inside the magnetosphere, whereas the ambient magnetospheric plasma moves usually in the opposite direction (sunward), and (ii) between these filaments and the magnetopause, there is a region of magnetospheric plasma, which separates these filaments from the magnetosheath. The stable earthward motion of these magnetopause show the possible disconnection of these filaments from the magnetosheath, as suggested earlier by many researchers. The results also show that these events cannot be a result of back-and-forth motions of magnetopause position or surface waves propagating on the magnetopause. Another important feature of these filaments is their rotation about the filament axis, which might be a result of their passage through the velocity shear on magnetopause boundary. After crossing the velocity shear, the filaments get a rotational velocity, which has opposite directions in the noon-dusk and noon-dawn sectors. This rotation velocity may be an important factor, supporting the stability of these filaments and providing their motion into the magnetosphere.

In this research, we used numerical simulation to study the effect of interhemispheric field-aligned currents (IHCs), going between two conjugate ionospheres in two hemispheres, on the equivalent ionospheric currents (EICs). We computed the maps of these EICs In two hemispheres during summer-winter conditions, when the effect of the IHCs is especially significant. The main results may be summarized as follows. In winter hemisphere, the IHCs may significantly exceed and be a substitute for the local R1 currents, and they may strongly affect the magnitude, location, and direction of the EICs In the nightside winter auroral ionosphere. While in summer polar cap the EICs tend to flow sunward, and in winter polar cap the EICs turn toward dawn due to the effect of the IHCs. The well-known reversal in the direction of the EICs in the vicinity of the midnight meridian, in winter hemisphere, is observed not at the polar caps boundary (as usually expected) but equatorward of this boundary in the region of the IHCs location. The IHCs in winter hemisphere may be, in fact, not only a substitute for the R1 currents but also the major source of the Westward Auroral Electrojet, observed In both hemispheres during substorm activity.

An asymmetry in ionospheric conductivity between two hemispheres results in the formation of additional, interhemispheric field-aligned currents flowing between conjugate ionospheres within two auroral zones. These interhemispheric currents are especially significant during summer-winter conditions when there is a significant asymmetry in ionospheric conductivity in two hemispheres. In such conditions, these currents may be comparable in magnitude with the Region 1 field-aligned currents. In this case, the R1 current is the sum of two FACs: one is going from to the solar wind, and another is flowing between conjugate ionospheres. These interhemispheric currents can also cause the formation of auroras extended along the nightside polar cap boundary, which may be related to the so-called double auroral oval. In this study, we present the results of analytical and numerical solutions for the interhemispheric currents and their effect on the Region 1 currents.

We reexamined the processes leading to saturation of the electric field, transmitted into the Earth's ionosphere from the solar wind, incorporating features of the coupled system previously ignored. We took into account that the electric field is transmitted into the ionosphere through a region of open field lines, and that the ionospheric conductivity in the polar cap and auroral zone may be different. Penetration of the electric field into the magnetosphere is linked with the generation of the Alfven wave, going out from the ionosphere into the solar wind and being coupled with the field-aligned currents at the boundary of the open field limes. The electric field of the outgoing Alfven wave reduces the original electric field and provides the saturation effect in the electric field and currents during strong geomagnetic disturbances, associated with increasing ionospheric conductivity. The electric field and field-aligned currents of this Alfven wave are dependent on the ionospheric and solar wind parameters and may significantly affect the electric field and field-aligned currents, generated in the polar ionosphere. Estimating the magnitude of the saturation effect in the electric field and field-aligned currents allows us to improve the correlation between solar wind parameters and resulting disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere.

We developed a new prediction model for forecasting relativistic (greater than 2MeV) electrons, which provides a VERY HIGH correlation between predicted and actually measured electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. This model implies the multi-step particle acceleration and is based on numerical integrating two linked continuity equations for primarily accelerated particles and relativistic electrons. The model includes a source and losses, and used solar wind data as only input parameters. We used the coupling function which is a best-fit combination of solar wind/interplanetary magnetic field parameters, responsible for the generation of geomagnetic activity, as a source. The loss function was derived from experimental data. We tested the model for four year period 2004-2007. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual values of the electron fluxes for whole four year period as well as for each of these years is stable and incredibly high (about 0.9). The high and stable correlation between the computed and actual electron fluxes shows that the reliable forecasting these electrons at geostationary orbit is possible.

For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new, PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating in high latitude ionosphere, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters is approximately 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.

We developed a new prediction model for forecasting relativistic (greater than 2MeV) electrons, which provides a VERY HIGH correlation between predicted and actually measured electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. This model implies the multi-step particle acceleration and is based on numerical integrating two linked continuity equations for primarily accelerated particles and relativistic electrons. The model includes a source and losses, and used solar wind data as only input parameters. We used the coupling function which is a best-fit combination of solar wind/interplanetary magnetic field parameters, responsible for the generation of geomagnetic activity, as a source. The loss function was derived from experimental data. We tested the model for four year period 2004-2007. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual values of the electron fluxes for whole four year period as well as for each of these years is stable and incredibly high (about 0.9). The high and stable correlation between the computed and actual electron fluxes shows that the reliable forecasting these electrons at geostationary orbit is possible.

For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters approximately equal to 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.

We developed a new prediction model for forecasting relativistic (>2MeV) electrons, which provides a VERY HIGH correlation between predicted and actually measured electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. This model implies the multi-step particle acceleration and is based on numerical integrating two linked continuity equations for primarily accelerated particles and relativistic electrons. The model includes a source and losses, and used solar wind data as only input parameters. We used the coupling function which is a best-fit combination of solar wind/Interplanetary Magnetic Field parameters, responsible for the generation of geomagnetic activity, as a source. The loss function was derived from experimental data. We tested the model for four year period 2004-2007. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual values of the electron fluxes for whole four year period as well as for each of these years is about 0.9. The high and stable correlation between the computed and actual electron fluxes shows that the reliable forecasting these electrons at geostationary orbit is possible. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual electron fluxes is stable and incredibly high.

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere are important tasks of US Space Weather Program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method, and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two of the main elements of such prediction scheme are: an appropriate geomagnetic activity index, and an appropriate coupling function (the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity). We have developed a new index of geomagnetic activity, the Polar Magnetic (PM) index and an improved version of solar wind coupling function. PM index is similar to the existing polar cap PC index but it shows much better correlation with upstream solar wind/IMF data and other events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. We investigate the correlation of PM index with upstream solar wind/IMF data for 10 years (1995-2004) that include both low and high solar activity. We also have introduced a new prediction function for the predicting of cross-polar-cap voltage and Joule heating based on using both PM index and upstream solar wind/IMF data. As we show such prediction function significantly increase the reliability of prediction of these important parameters. The correlation coefficients between the actual and predicted values of these parameters are approx. 0.9 and higher.