Prediction of Geomagnetic Activity and Key Parameters in High-latitude Ionosphere

Prediction of geomagnetic activity and related events in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere are important tasks of US Space Weather Program. Prediction reliability is dependent on the prediction method, and elements included in the prediction scheme. Two of the main elements of such prediction scheme are: an appropriate geomagnetic activity index, and an appropriate coupling function (the combination of solar wind parameters providing the best correlation between upstream solar wind data and geomagnetic activity). We have developed a new index of geomagnetic activity, the Polar Magnetic (PM) index and an improved version of solar wind coupling function. PM index is similar to the existing polar cap PC index but it shows much better correlation with upstream solar wind/IMF data and other events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. We investigate the correlation of PM index with upstream solar wind/IMF data for 10 years (1995-2004) that include both low and high solar activity. We also have introduced a new prediction function for the predicting of cross-polar-cap voltage and Joule heating based on using both PM index and upstream solar wind/IMF data. As we show such prediction function significantly increase the reliability of prediction of these important parameters. The correlation coefficients between the actual and predicted values of these parameters are approx. 0.9 and higher.