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Forecasts of COVID-19 outcomes play an essential role in alerting public health and government officials to the trajectory of the pandemic. The sudden and critical need for these forecasts spurred both the proliferation of diverse epidemiological transmission models from academia and industry across the United States and efforts to standardize and curate these model outputs. In many scientific domains, ensemble models, where individual forecasts are aggregated into one, have demonstrated smaller forecasting error than the individual models from which they are constructed. Using COVID-19 deaths as an index outcome, we developed and evaluated several ensemble approaches where point forecast models were combined via weighted sums based on historical individual model or ensemble model performance. We found that a simple method that minimized the error of the past performance of individual models and used L2 regularization to encourage broader distribution of weights across models outperformed a baseline mean ensemble and all other tested methods across US states for both absolute error and weighted interval scores. This suggests that performance-based ensembles can produce accurate forecasts despite training on only point forecasts and recent historical data, provided that sufficient regularization and constraints are used to capture uncertainty. Availability of an accurate and explainable ensemble forecast model can increase trust among stakeholders and the general public, thus bettering preparedness and response efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Probabilistic predictions support public health planning and decision making, especially in infectious disease emergencies. Aggregating outputs from multiple models yields more robust predictions of outcomes and associated uncertainty. While the selection of an aggregation method can be guided by retrospective performance evaluations, this is not always possible. For example, if predictions are conditional on assumptions about how the future will unfold (e.g. possible interventions), these assumptions may never materialize, precluding any direct comparison between predictions and observations. Here, we summarize literature on aggregating probabilistic predictions, illustrate various methods for infectious disease predictions via simulation, and present a strategy for choosing an aggregation method when empirical validation cannot be used. We focus on the linear opinion pool (LOP) and Vincent average, common methods that make different assumptions about between-prediction uncertainty. We contend that assumptions of the aggregation method should align with a hypothesis about how uncertainty is expressed within and between predictions from different sources. The LOP assumes that between-prediction uncertainty is meaningful and should be retained, while the Vincent average assumes that between-prediction uncertainty is akin to sampling error and should not be preserved. We provide an R package for implementation. Given the rising importance of multi-model infectious disease hubs, our work provides useful guidance on aggregation and a deeper understanding of the benefits and risks of different approaches.

BACKGROUND: Globally, neonatal mortality accounts for almost half of all deaths in children younger than 5 years. Aetiological agents of neonatal infection are difficult to identify because the clinical signs are non-specific. Using data from the Aetiology of Neonatal Infections in south Asia (ANISA) cohort, we aimed to describe the spectrum of infectious aetiologies of acute neonatal illness categorised post-hoc using the 2015 WHO case definitions of critical illness, clinical severe infection, and fast breathing only. METHODS: Eligible infants were aged 0-59 days with possible serious bacterial infection and healthy infants enrolled in the ANISA study in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. We applied a partial latent class Bayesian model to estimate the prevalence of 27 pathogens detectable on PCR, pathogens detected by blood culture only, and illness not attributed to any infectious aetiology. Infants with at least one clinical specimen available were included in the analysis. We assessed the prevalence of these aetiologies according to WHO's case definitions of critically ill, clinical severe infection, and infants with late onset, isolated fast breathing. For the clinical severe definition, we compared the prevalence of signs by bacterial versus viral aetiology. FINDINGS: There were 934 infants (992 episodes) in the critically ill category, 3769 (4000 episodes) in the clinical severe infection category, and 738 (771 episodes) in the late-onset isolated fast breathing category. We estimated the proportion of illness attributable to bacterial infection was 32·7% in infants in the critically ill group, 15·6% in the clinical severe infection group, and 8·8% among infants with late-onset isolated fast breathing group. An infectious aetiology was not identified in 58-82% of infants in these categories. Among 4000 episodes of clinical severe infection, those with bacterial versus viral attribution had higher proportions of hypothermia, movement only when stimulated, convulsions, and poor feeding. INTERPRETATION: Our modelled results generally support the revised WHO case definitions, although a revision of the most severe case definition could be considered. Clinical criteria do not clearly differentiate between young infants with and without infectious aetiologies. Our results highlight the need for improved point-of-care diagnostics, and further study into neonatal deaths and episodes with no identified aetiology, to ensure antibiotic stewardship and targeted interventions. FUNDING: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5–11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5–11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5–11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880–0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834–0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797–1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5–11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation of COVID-19 prevention strategies such as those for businesses, large-scale gatherings, and educational activities. To provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub teams used a multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness estimates and strength and implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, such as physical distancing and masking) over a 6-month period (April-September 2021) using data available through March 27, 2021 (4). Among the four scenarios, an accelerated decline in NPI adherence (which encapsulates NPI mandates and population behavior) was shown to undermine vaccination-related gains over the subsequent 2-3 months and, in combination with increased transmissibility of new variants, could lead to surges in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. A sharp decline in cases was projected by July 2021, with a faster decline in the high-vaccination scenarios. High vaccination rates and compliance with public health prevention measures are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.

Introduction: Skin interventions have been implemented to reduce neonatal mortality, demonstrating the skin’s role in neonatal innate immunity. We examined the impact of birthweight and environmental conditions on skin integrity in infants receiving oil massage in rural Nepal. Methods: In a community-based cluster randomized controlled trial, 991 premature and full-term infants were grouped by birthweight as: (1) 920–1,560 g, (2) 1,570–2,450 g, (3) 2,460–2,990 g, and (4) 3,000–4,050 g and by high or low heat index (HI). Skin integrity was measured as erythema, rash, dryness, pH, protein concentration, and transepidermal water loss (TEWL). Results: Skin pH was higher for the smallest (group 1) than the largest infants (group 4) and higher for group 2 than 3 and 4. Arm and leg rash differed for all 4 groups, with the least amount of rash for the smallest babies. Erythema was lower for group 1 than all others. The lower day 1 values for pH, TEWL and protein at high versus low HI remained lower over 28 days. The pH reduction was faster at high HI. Erythema (arm, leg) was more severe at high HI. Rash severity was greater at high HI for arms and legs every day. Conclusions: Birthweight influenced the skin response to oil massage. The smallest infants had the lowermost skin irritation, suggesting diminished ability to mount an inflammatory response. High HI may be protective for premature infants in low resource settings.

Background In South Sudan, the civil war in 2016 led to mass displacement in Juba that rapidly spread to other regions of the country. Access to health care was limited because of attacks against health facilities and workers and pregnant women and newborns were among the most vulnerable. Translation of newborn guidelines into public health practice, particularly during periods of on-going violence, are not well studied during humanitarian emergencies. During 2016 to 2017, we assessed the delivery of a package of community- and facility-based newborn health interventions in displaced person camps to understand implementation outcomes. This case analysis describes the challenges encountered and mitigating strategies employed during the conduct of an original research study. Discussion Challenges unique to conducting research in South Sudan included violent attacks against humanitarian aid workers that required research partners to modify study plans on an ongoing basis to ensure staff and patient safety. South Sudan faced devastating cholera and measles outbreaks that shifted programmatic priorities. Costs associated with traveling study staff and transporting equipment kept rising due to hyperinflation and, after the July 2016 violence, the study team was unable to convene in Juba for some months to conduct refresher trainings or monitor data collection. Strategies used to address these challenges were: collaborating with non-research partners to identify operational solutions; maintaining a locally-based study team; maintaining flexible budgets and timelines; using mobile data collection to conduct timely data entry and remote quality checks; and utilizing a cascade approach for training field staff. Conclusions The case analysis provides lessons that are applicable to other humanitarian settings including the need for flexible research methods, budgets and timelines; innovative training and supervision; and a local research team with careful consideration of sociopolitical factors that impact their access and safety. Engagement of national and local stakeholders can ensure health services and data collection continue and findings translate to public health action, even in contexts facing severe and unpredictable insecurity.

BackgroundIn South Asia, a third of babies are born small-for-gestational age (SGA) accounting for a quarter of all neonatal deaths. The risk factors are well described in the literature, but many studies are in high-and-middle income countries or measure SGA on facility births only. There are fewer studies that describe the prevalence of risk factors for large-for-gestational age (LGA) in low-income countries. We aim to describe the factors associated with SGA and LGA in a population-based cohort of pregnant women in rural Nepal. MethodsThis is a secondary data analysis of a community-based trial where women were assessed for pregnancy approximately every five weeks. Demographic, socio-economic status (SES), medical/obstetric history, and timing of last menstruation were collected on pregnant women at enrollment. Vital signs, illness symptoms, and antenatal care (ANC) attendance were collected throughout the pregnancy and neonatal weight was measured for live births. We conducted multivariate analysis using multinomial logistic regression. Outcomes were SGA, LGA compared to appropriate-for-gestational age (AGA) and were multiply imputed using birthweight recalibrated to time 0, at delivery.Results In the adjusted analysis, SGA was associated with lower SES, zero parity, interpregnancy intervals less than 18 months, poor appetite/vomiting in the second trimester, and swelling of hands/face in the third trimester. Parity greater than five, male fetal sex, and increased weight gain were protective for SGA. Many of these factors were inversely associated with LGA. Additionally, four or more ANC visits and respiratory symptoms in the third trimester were negatively associated with LGA, and maternal age Conclusions Our findings are in line with known risk factors for SGA. Because the prevalence and mortality risk of LGA babies is low in this population, it is likely LGA status does not indicate underlaying illness. High quality antenatal care, monitoring for appropriate gestational weight gain and increased monitoring of women with high-risk pregnancies may reduce prevalence and improve outcomes of SGA babies. Trial RegistrationThe study used in this secondary data analysis was registered at Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01177111.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Improved biomass stoves may not reduce indoor air pollution as much as is needed to have an impact on adverse birth outcomes., Key Findings Two trials in rural southern Nepal reduced indoor air pollution through improved biomass or liquid petroleum gas stoves, but levels were still much higher than World Health Organization standards.Exposure of pregnant women to these lower air pollution levels was not associated with reduced incidence of low birth weight, preterm birth, and small for gestational age. Key Implications Improved biomass stoves may not reduce indoor air pollution as much as is needed to have an impact on adverse birth outcomes.Emphasis should be placed on behavior to reduce use of biomass stoves when using improved ones for maximum reduction of pollution., Background: Few randomized trials have assessed the impact of reducing household air pollution from biomass stoves on adverse birth outcomes in low-income countries. Methods: Two sequential trials were conducted in rural low-lying Nepal. Trial 1 was a cluster-randomized step-wedge trial comparing traditional biomass stoves and improved biomass stoves vented with a chimney. Trial 2 was a parallel household-randomized trial comparing vented biomass stoves and liquid petroleum gas (LPG) stoves with a year’s supply of gas. Kitchen particulate matter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) and carbon monoxide (CO) were assessed before and after stove installation. Prevalent and incident pregnancies were enrolled at baseline and throughout the trials. Birth anthropometry was compared across differing exposure times in pregnancy. Results: In trial 1, the mean 20-hour kitchen PM2.5 concentration was reduced from 1380 µg/m3 to 936 µg/m3. Among infants born before the intervention, mean birth weight and gestational age were 2627 g (SD=443) and 38.8 weeks (SD=3.1), and 39% were low birth weight (LBW), 22% preterm, and 55% small for gestational age (SGA). Adverse birth outcomes were not significantly different with increasing exposure to improved stoves during pregnancy. In trial 2, the mean 20-hour PM2.5 concentration was 885 µg/m3 in households with vented biomass and 442 µg/m3 in those with LPG stoves. Mean birth weight was 2780 g (SD=427) and 2742 g (SD=431), among households with vented and LPG stoves, respectively. Respective percentages for LBW, SGA, and preterm were 23%, 13%, and 42% in the vented stove group and not statistically different from 31%, 17%, and 42% in the LPG group. Conclusions: Improved biomass or LPG stoves did not reduce adverse birth outcomes. PM2.5 and CO following improved stove installation remained well above the World Health Organization indoor air standard of 25 µg/m3 or intermediate air quality guideline of 37.5 µg/m3. Trials that lower indoor air pollution further are needed.

Background Nausea and vomiting are experienced by a majority of pregnant women worldwide. Previous studies have yielded conflicting results regarding their impact on birth outcomes and few studies have examined this relationship in settings with limited resources. We aimed to determine the effect of nausea, vomiting and poor appetite during pregnancy on birth outcomes in rural Nepal. Methods Observational cohort study using data collected in two randomized, community-based trials to assess the effect of influenza immunization during pregnancy on reproductive and respiratory outcomes among pregnant women and their offspring. Pregnant women in Sarlahi District, Nepal were recruited from 2011 to 2013. Exposure was defined as nausea, vomiting or poor appetite at any point during pregnancy and by trimester; symptoms were recorded monthly throughout pregnancy. Adverse outcomes were low birth weight (LBW), preterm birth and small for gestational age (SGA). Adjusted relative risks (aRR) with 95% CIs are reported from Poisson regressions with robust variance. Results Among 3,623 pregnant women, the cumulative incidence of nausea, vomiting or poor appetite was 49.5% (n = 1793) throughout pregnancy and 60.6% (n = 731) in the first trimester. Significantly higher aRRs of LBW and SGA were observed among women experiencing symptoms during pregnancy as compared to symptom free women (LBW: aRR 1.20; 95% CI 1.05 1.28; SGA: aRR 1.16; 95% CI 1.05 1.28). Symptoms in the first trimester were not significantly associated with any of the outcomes. In the second trimester, we observed significantly higher aRRs for LBW and SGA (LBW: aRR 1.17; 95% CI 1.01 1.36; SGA: aRR 1.16; 95% CI 1.05 1.29) and a significantly lower aRR for preterm birth (aRR 0.75; 95% CI 0.59 0.96). In the third trimester, we observed significantly higher aRRs for LBW and SGA (LBW: aRR 1.20; 95% CI 1.01 1.43; SGA: aRR 1.14; 95% CI 1.01 1.29). Conclusions Symptoms of nausea, vomiting or poor appetite during pregnancy are associated with LBW, SGA and preterm birth in a setting with limited resources, especially beyond the first trimester. Trial registration Prospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov on Dec 17, 2009 (NCT01034254).

Objectives Antiseptic oral rinses have been evaluated as interventions to reduce the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes associated with periodontal disease in pregnant women. Oral rinse use is not common in Nepal or other countries in South Asia, where the prevalence of adverse pregnancy outcomes is high. Understanding whether pregnant women in rural communities in this region would incorporate rinse use into their daily teeth cleaning routine is an important prerequisite to future research on this topic in South Asia. Methods We conducted a community‐based pilot randomized controlled trial of three alcohol‐free, antiseptic oral rinses among pregnant women

Summary Background Maternal influenza immunisation can reduce morbidity and mortality associated with influenza infection in pregnant women and young infants. We aimed to determine the vaccine efficacy of maternal influenza immunisation against maternal and infant PCR-confirmed influenza, duration of protection, and the effect of gestational age at vaccination on vaccine efficacy, birth outcomes, and infant growth up to 6 months of age. Methods We did a pooled analysis of three randomised controlled trials done in Nepal (2011–2014), Mali (2011–2014), and South Africa (2011–2013). Pregnant women, gestational age 17–34 weeks in Nepal, 28 weeks or more in Mali, and 20–36 weeks in South Africa, were enrolled. Women were randomly assigned 1:1 to a study group, in which they received trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in all three trials, or a control group, in which they received saline placebo in Nepal and South Africa or quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine in Mali. Enrolment at all sites was complete by April 24, 2013. Infants and women were assessed for respiratory illness, and samples from those that met the case definition were tested for influenza by PCR testing. Growth measurements, including length and weight, were obtained at birth at all sites, at 24 weeks in South Africa, and at 6 months in Nepal and Mali. The three trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , numbers NCT01430689 , NCT01034254 , and NCT02465190 . Findings 10 002 women and 9800 liveborn infants were included. Pooled efficacy of maternal vaccination to prevent infant PCR-confirmed influenza up to 6 months of age was 35% (95% CI 19 to 47). The pooled estimate was 56% (28 to 73) within the first 2 months of life, 39% (11 to 58) between 2 and 4 months, and 19% (–9 to 40) between 4 and 6 months. In women, from enrolment during pregnancy to the end of follow-up at 6 months postpartum, the vaccine was 50% (95% CI 32–63) efficacious against PCR-confirmed influenza. Efficacy was 42% (12 to 61) during pregnancy and 60% (36 to 75) postpartum. In women vaccinated before 29 weeks gestational age, the estimated efficacy was 30% (–2 to 52), and in women vaccinated at or after 29 weeks, efficacy was 71% (50 to 83). Efficacy was similar in infants born to mothers vaccinated before or after 29 weeks gestation (34% [95% CI 12 to 51] vs 35% [11 to 52]). There was no overall association between maternal vaccination and low birthweight, stillbirth, preterm birth, and small for gestational age. At 6 months of age, the intervention and control groups were similar in terms of underweight (weight-for-age), stunted (length-for-age), and wasted (weight-for-length). Median centile change from birth to 6 months of age was similar between the intervention and the control groups for both weight and length. Interpretation The assessment of efficacy for women vaccinated before 29 weeks gestational age might have been underpowered, because the point estimate suggests that there might be efficacy despite wide CIs. Estimates of efficacy against PCR-confirmed influenza and safety in terms of adverse birth outcomes should be incorporated into any further consideration of maternal influenza immunisation recommendations. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background In many low- and middle-income countries, insufficient human resources limit access to oral health services. Shifting clinical tasks to less specialized health professionals, such as community health workers, has been used as a strategy to expand the health workforce, especially in remote or underserved locations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the validity of periodontal examinations conducted by auxiliary nurse midwives in a rural home setting in Nepal. Methods Twenty-one pregnant women Results Participant mean age was 22 years (SD: ±3 years), mean PD was 1.4 mm (SD: 03 mm), and 86% of women had BOP (according to the dentist). Percent agreement, weighted kappa scores, and intraclass correlation coefficients for PD, with an allowance of ±1 mm, exceeded 99%, 0.7, and 0.9, respectively, indicating an acceptable level of agreement. Auxiliary nurse midwives tended to report higher PD scores relative to the dentist, although this over-estimation was small and unlikely to impact population-based estimates of important indicators of oral health status. GEE regression modeling indicated similar agreement for mandible vs. maxilla, left vs. right side, and PD (≤2 mm, > 2 mm), and lower agreement for posterior teeth and lingual and proximal sites. Conclusion Auxiliary nurse midwives were able to accurately conduct periodontal examinations in a rural home setting, suggesting the potential to shift tasks away from highly trained dentists and periodontal examiners in low-resource communities. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01177111 (Nepal Oil Massage Study); registered on August 6th, 2010.

Background Increased coverage of antenatal care and facility births might not improve maternal and newborn health outcomes if quality of care is sub-optimal. Our study aimed to assess the facility readiness and health worker knowledge required to provide quality maternal and newborn care. Methods Using an audit tool and interviews, respectively, facility readiness and health providers’ knowledge of maternal and immediate newborn care were assessed at all 23 birthing centers (BCs) and the District hospital in the rural southern Nepal district of Sarlahi. Facility readiness to perform specific functions was assessed through descriptive analysis and comparisons by facility type (health post (HP), primary health care center (PHCC), private and District hospital). Knowledge was compared by facility type and by additional skilled birth attendant (SBA) training. Results Infection prevention items were lacking in more than one quarter of facilities, and widespread shortages of iron/folic acid tablets, injectable ampicillin/gentamicin, and magnesium sulfate were a major barrier to facility readiness. While parenteral oxytocin was commonly provided, only the District hospital was prepared to perform all seven basic emergency obstetric and newborn care signal functions. The required number of medical doctors, nurses and midwives were present in only 1 of 5 PHCCs. Private sector SBAs had significantly lower knowledge of active management of third stage of labor and correct diagnosis of severe pre-eclampsia. While half of the health workers had received the mandated additional two-month SBA training, comparison with the non-trained group showed no significant difference in knowledge indicators. Conclusions Facility readiness to provide quality maternal and newborn care is low in this rural area of Nepal. Addressing the gaps by facility type through regular monitoring, improving staffing and supply chains, supervision and refresher trainings is important to improve quality.

Highlights • Acute respiratory infections, including influenza, are common among household member in Nepal. • Antenatal influenza vaccination does not confer indirect protection to household members. • Challenges include low vaccine efficacy and limited population coverage., Influenza is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and the World Health Organization highly recommends maternal vaccination during pregnancy. The indirect effect of maternal vaccination on other close contacts other than newborns is unknown. To evaluate this, we conducted a nested substudy between 2011 and 2012 of influenza and acute respiratory illness (ARI) among household members of pregnant women enrolled in a randomized placebo-controlled trial of antenatal influenza vaccination in the rural district of Sarlahi, Nepal. Women were assigned to receive influenza vaccination or placebo during pregnancy and then they and their household members were followed up to 6 months postpartum with weekly symptom surveillance and nasal swab collection. Swabs were tested by RT-PCR for influenza. Rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza and of ARI were compared between vaccine and placebo groups using generalized estimating equations with a Poisson link function. Overall, 1752 individuals in 520 households were eligible for inclusion. There were 82 laboratory-confirmed influenza illness episodes, for a rate of 7.0 per 100 person-years overall. Of the influenza strains able to be typed, 29 were influenza A, 40 were influenza B, and 6 were coinfections with influenza A and B. The rate did not differ significantly whether the household was in the vaccine or placebo group (rate ratio (RR) 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83–2.26). The rate of ARI was 28.5 per 100 person-years overall and did not differ by household group (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.72–1.36). Influenza vaccination of pregnant women did not provide indirect protection of unvaccinated household members.

IntroductionThe WHO Nutrition Target aims to reduce the global prevalence of low birth weight by 30% by the year 2025. The Enhancing Nutrition and Antenatal Infection Treatment (ENAT) study will test the impact of packages of pregnancy interventions to enhance maternal nutrition and infection management on birth outcomes in rural Ethiopia.Methods and analysisENAT is a pragmatic, open-label, 2×2 factorial, randomised clinical effectiveness study implemented in 12 rural health centres in Amhara, Ethiopia. Eligible pregnant women presenting at antenatal care (ANC) visits at Ethics and disseminationENAT is approved by the Institutional Review Boards of Addis Continental Institute of Public Health (001-A1-2019) and Mass General Brigham (2018P002479). Results will be disseminated to local and international stakeholders.Registration numberISRCTN15116516.

ObjectivePreterm birth can have short-term and long-term complications for a child. Socioeconomic factors and pregnancy-related morbidities may be important to predict and prevent preterm births in low-resource settings. The objective of our study was to find prevalence and predictors of spontaneous preterm birth in rural Nepal.DesignThis is a secondary observational analysis of trial data (registration numberNCT01177111).SettingRural Sarlahi district, Nepal.Participants40 119 pregnant women enrolled from 9 September 2010 to 16 January 2017.Outcome measuresThe outcome variable is spontaneous preterm birth. Generalized Estimating Equations Poisson regression with robust variance was fitted to present effect estimates as risk ratios.ResultThe prevalence of spontaneous preterm birth was 14.5% (0.5% non-spontaneous). Characteristics not varying in pregnancy associated with increased risk of preterm birth were maternal age less than 18 years (adjusted risk ratio=1.13, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.26); being Muslim (1.53, 1.16 to 2.01); first pregnancy (1.15, 1.04 to 1.28); multiple births (4.91, 4.20 to 5.75) and male child (1.10, 1.02 to 1.17). Those associated with decreased risk were maternal education >5 years (0.81, 0.73 to 0.90); maternal height ≥150 cm (0.89, 0.81 to 0.98) and being from wealthier families (0.83, 0.74 to 0.93). Pregnancy-related morbidities associated with increased risk of preterm birth were vaginal bleeding (1.53, 1.08 to 2.18); swelling (1.37, 1.17 to 1.60); high systolic blood pressure (BP) (1.47, 1.08 to 2.01) and high diastolic BP (1.41, 1.17 to 1.70) in the third trimester. Those associated with decreased risk were respiratory problem in the third trimester (0.86, 0.79 to 0.94); having poor appetite, nausea and vomiting in the second trimester (0.86, 0.80 to 0.92) and third trimester (0.86, 0.79 to 0.94); and higher weight gain from second to third trimester (0.89, 0.87 to 0.90).ConclusionThe prevalence of preterm birth is high in rural Nepal. Interventions that increase maternal education may play a role. Monitoring morbidities during antenatal care to intervene to reduce them through an effective health system may help reduce preterm birth.

Background Low birthweight (LBW) ( Methods A comparative pre-post study was performed in selected rural health facilities located in West Gojjam and South Gondar zones. At baseline, a retrospective review of delivery records from February to May 2018 was performed in 14 health centers to collect birthweight data. A birthweight QI initiative was introduced in August 2019, which included provision of high-quality digital infant weight scales (precision 5 g), routine calibration, training in birth weighing and data recording, and routine field supervision. After the QI implementation, birthweight data were prospectively collected from late August to early September 2019, and December 2019 to June 2020. Data quality, as measured by heaping (weights at exact multiples of 500 g) and rounding to the nearest 100 g, and the prevalence of LBW were calculated before and after QI implementation. Results We retrospectively reviewed 1383 delivery records before the QI implementation and prospectively measured 1371 newborn weights after QI implementation. Heaping was most frequently observed at 3000 g and declined from 26% pre-initiative to 6.7% post-initiative. Heaping at 2500 g decreased from 5.4% pre-QI to 2.2% post-QI. The percentage of rounding to the nearest 100 g was reduced from 100% pre-initiative to 36.5% post-initiative. Before the QI initiative, the prevalence of recognized LBW was 2.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5–3.1) and after the QI initiative increased to 11.7% (95% CI: 10.1–13.5). Conclusions A QI intervention can improve the quality of birthweight measurements, and data measurement quality may substantially affect estimates of LBW prevalence.

The Global Nutrition Target of reducing low birthweight (LBW) by ≥30% between 2012 and 2025 has led to renewed interest in producing accurate, population-based, national LBW estimates. Low- and middle-income countries rely on household surveys for birthweight data. These data are frequently incomplete and exhibit strong "heaping." Standard survey adjustment methods produce estimates with residual bias. The global database used to report against the LBW Global Nutrition Target adjusts survey data using a new MINORMIX (multiple imputation followed by normal mixture) approach: 1) multiple imputation to address missing birthweights, followed by 2) use of a 2-component normal mixture model to account for heaping of birthweights.To evaluate the performance of the MINORMIX birthweight adjustment approach and alternative methods against gold-standard measured birthweights in rural Nepal.As part of a community-randomized trial in rural Nepal, we measured "gold-standard" birthweights at birth and returned 1-24 mo later to collect maternally reported birthweights using standard survey methods. We compared estimates of LBW from maternally reported data derived using: 1) the new MINORMAX approach; 2) the previously used Blanc-Wardlaw adjustment; or 3) no adjustment for missingness or heaping against our gold standard. We also assessed the independent contribution of multiple imputation and curve fitting to LBW adjustment.Our gold standard found 27.7% of newborns were LBW. The unadjusted LBW estimate based on maternal report with simulated missing birthweights was 14.5% (95% CI: 11.6, 18.0%). Application of the Blanc-Wardlaw adjustment increased the LBW estimate to 20.6%. The MINORMIX approach produced an estimate of 26.4% (95% CI: 23.5, 29.3%) LBW, closest to and with bounds encompassing the measured point estimate.In a rural Nepal validation dataset, the MINORMIX method generated a more accurate LBW estimate than the previously applied adjustment method. This supports the use of the MINORMIX method to produce estimates for tracking the LBW Global Nutrition Target.

ObjectiveRisk factors predisposing infants to community-acquired bacterial infections during the first 2 months of life are poorly understood in South Asia. Identifying risk factors for infection could lead to improved preventive measures and antibiotic stewardship.MethodsFive sites in Bangladesh, India and Pakistan enrolled mother–child pairs via population-based pregnancy surveillance by community health workers. Medical, sociodemographic and epidemiological risk factor data were collected. Young infants aged 0–59 days with signs of possible serious bacterial infection (pSBI) and age-matched controls provided blood and respiratory specimens that were analysed by blood culture and real-time PCR. These tests were used to build a Bayesian partial latent class model (PLCM) capable of attributing the probable cause of each infant’s infection in the ANISA study. The collected risk factors from all mother–child pairs were classified and analysed against the PLCM using bivariate and stepwise logistic multivariable regression modelling to determine risk factors of probable bacterial infection.ResultsAmong 63 114 infants born, 14 655 were assessed and 6022 had signs of pSBI; of these, 81% (4859) provided blood samples for culture, 71% (4216) provided blood samples for quantitative PCR (qPCR) and 86% (5209) provided respiratory qPCR samples. Risk factors associated with bacterial-attributed infections included: low (relative risk (RR) 1.73, 95% credible interval (CrI) 1.42 to 2.11) and very low birth weight (RR 5.77, 95% CrI 3.73 to 8.94), male sex (RR 1.27, 95% CrI 1.07 to 1.52), breathing problems at birth (RR 2.50, 95% CrI 1.96 to 3.18), premature rupture of membranes (PROMs) (RR 1.27, 95% CrI 1.03 to 1.58) and being in the lowest three socioeconomic status quintiles (first RR 1.52, 95% CrI 1.07 to 2.16; second RR 1.41, 95% CrI 1.00 to 1.97; third RR 1.42, 95% CrI 1.01 to 1.99).ConclusionDistinct risk factors: birth weight, male sex, breathing problems at birth and PROM were significantly associated with the development of bacterial sepsis across South Asian community settings, supporting refined clinical discernment and targeted use of antimicrobials.

SummaryWhat is already known about this topic?The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July—December 2021.What is added by this report?Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July—December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage.What are the implications for public health practice?Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen.

ObjectivesIn low-income countries, birth weights for home deliveries are often measured at the nadir when babies may lose up of 10% of their birth weight, biasing estimates of small-for-gestational age (SGA) and low birth weight (LBW). We aimed to develop an imputation model that predicts the ‘true’ birth weight at time of delivery.DesignWe developed and applied a model that recalibrates weights measured in the early neonatal period to time=0 at delivery and uses those recalibrated birth weights to impute missing birth weights.SettingThis is a secondary analysis of pregnancy cohort data from two studies in Sarlahi district, Nepal.ParticipantsThe participants are 457 babies with daily weights measured in the first 10 days of life from a subsample of a larger clinical trial on chlorhexidine (CHX) neonatal skin cleansing and 31 116 babies followed through the neonatal period to test the impact of neonatal massage oil type (Nepal Oil Massage Study (NOMS)).Outcome measuresWe developed an empirical Bayes model of early neonatal weight change using CHX trial longitudinal data and applied it to the NOMS dataset to recalibrate and then impute birth weight at delivery. The outcomes are size-for-gestational age and LBW.ResultsWhen using the imputed birth weights, the proportion of SGA is reduced from 49% (95% CI: 48% to 49%) to 44% (95% CI: 43% to 44%). Low birth weight is reduced from 30% (95% CI: 30% to 31%) to 27% (95% CI: 26% to 27%). The proportion of babies born large-for-gestational age increased from 4% (95% CI: 4% to 4%) to 5% (95% CI: 5% to 5%).ConclusionsUsing weights measured around the nadir overestimates the prevalence of SGA and LBW. Studies in low-income settings with high levels of home births should consider a similar recalibration and imputation model to generate more accurate population estimates of small and vulnerable newborns.