Search

Environmental hazards represent a major socio-economic challenge where floods events are the most impactful in terms of global population affected (UNDRR, 2020). Coastal areas are exposed to multiple met-ocean extreme events which can occur separately or combined. Storm surges associated with wind waves, heavy rainfall and tides can lead to catastrophic inundation events associated with breakdown of structures, food and water insecurities and loss of lives. Additionally, climate changes are associated with two coastal risk factors: a) an increase of extreme events (Schiermeier, 2011; Vitousek et al., 2017) and b) an increase of sea level rise (IPCC, 2018).Different approaches exist to flood modelling (Vousdoukas et al.,2016; Dottori, Martina and Figueiredo, 2018), varying by complexity and accuracy. Simple hydrological models, which operate by integrating the 2D shallow water equation in a flood-plain, offer a good trade-off between computational demand and good skills in simulating real coastal flood events (Smith, Bates and Hayes, 2012). Since accurate inundation modelling is of great importance for risk prevention and management of coastal areas, a system that can be reallocated and calibrated for different regions is a forefront of the research topic.As a first case study, the flood event of February 2015 in Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy) was selected. The event was characterized by a combination of heavy rain, waves and tides which leads to one of the highest water levels ever recorded in the area (Perini et al., 2015). The model was run with different Digital Elevation Models and forced with water levels provided by Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA) station. The results were compared with observational data of inundation maps. A broad agreement was found between inundation maps produced by the model and observational data, though with significant local discrepancies. The main differences between model and observations can be ascribed mainly to DEM’s local uncertainty. Work is in progress to include the different types of forcings and to elaborate machine-learning based protocols of calibration to locally improve the model skill, by a) optimizing the mean elevation of the DEM using the modelled and observed flooded areas and b) best-fitting Manning coefficients over the DEM using land use data.

Orientador: Angélica Zaninelli Schreiber Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas Resumo: A rápida detecção do patógeno e seu perfil de suscetibilidade são fundamentais para melhor prognóstico e diminuição da mortalidade de pacientes acometidos por infecções fúngicas. A técnica de espectrometria de massas MALDI-TOF MS revolucionou a microbiologia clínica nos últimos anos. Além de promover identificação rápida, acurada e de baixo custo, outra promissora aplicação da metodologia é a possibilidade de determinação da suscetibilidade microbiana. Ao contrário de bactérias e leveduras, para fungos filamentosos, o preparo de amostra é complexo e os protocolos carecem de aperfeiçoamento. Além disso, o banco de dados utilizado para identificação ainda é limitado, reduzindo a acurácia do resultado. Essas limitações impedem a implementação plena desta tecnologia no laboratório clínico. O presente trabalho tem como objetivos: padronizar pré-tratamentos para identificação de fungos filamentosos; enriquecer o banco de dados do equipamento MALDI-TOF MS em uso no Laboratório de Microbiologia -HC -UNICAMP com espectros de isolados locais e avaliar a espectrometria de massas como ferramenta para determinação da suscetibilidade de isolados de Candida spp. e Aspergillus spp. Foram reativados 94 isolados clínicos mantidos na micoteca do Laboratório de Investigação em Fungos-Unicamp, previamente identificados por métodos moleculares (52 Aspergillus spp, 15 Candida spp, 26 Fusarium spp, 1 Neosartorya pseudofisheri). Foram realizados testes-piloto para seleção de protocolos de pré-tratamento e posterior identificação por espectrometria de massas. Avaliou-se a suscetibilidade de 15 isolados de Candida spp. frente a fluconazol e 15 Aspergillus spp. frente a itraconazol e voriconazol, utilizando as metodologias de microdiluição em caldo e espectrometria de massas. MALDI-TOF MS alcançou 100% de identificações corretas dos isolados de Aspergillus spp. e 85,71% de Fusarium spp. Foram coletados espectros proteicos de 50 isolados para implementação de uma biblioteca com isolados locais. Comparando com a metodologia de referência microdiluição em caldo, MALDI-TOF MS atingiu uma concordância geral de 91,11% na determinação da suscetibilidade de Candida spp. e Aspergillus spp. Total concordância (100%) foi alcançada analisando Aspergillus frente a voriconazol e Candida frente a fluconazol, e 73.33% na determinação da suscetibilidade de Aspergillus spp. a itraconazol. Conclui-se que MALDI-TOF MS pode ser uma alternativa rápida e acurada para identificação de fungos filamentosos, porém, para algumas espécies há necessidade de melhoria da biblioteca de espectros de referência. MALDI-TOF MS é uma tecnologia promissora para aplicação em testes de suscetibilidade antifúngica, sendo uma alternativa mais rápida quando comparado a métodos tradicionais Abstract: The rapid detection of the pathogen and its susceptibility profile is essential for a better prognosis and decreases the mortality rate of patients affected by fungal infections. MALDI-TOF MS mass spectrometry technique has revolutionized clinical microbiology in recent years. In addition to promoting fast, accurate and low-cost identification, another promising application of the methodology is the possibility of determining microbial susceptibility. Unlike bacteria and yeasts, for filamentous fungi, sample preparation is still time-consuming, and the protocols need to be improved. In addition, the database used for identification is still limited, reducing the diagnosis accuracy. These limitations hinder the full implementation of this technology in clinical laboratories. The present work aims to: standardize pre-treatments to identify filamentous fungi; enrich the database of the MALDI-TOF MS equipment in use at the Microbiology Laboratory -HC/UNICAMP with spectra of local isolates and evaluate mass spectrometry as a tool for azole susceptibility testing of Candida spp. and Aspergillus spp. 94 clinical isolates kept in the library of the Research Laboratory in Fungi (LIF-FCM)-Unicamp, previously identified by DNA sequencing (52 Aspergillus spp, 15 Candida spp, 26 Fusarium spp, 1 Neosartorya pseudofisheri) were reactivated. Pilot tests were conducted to select pre-treatment protocols for later identification by mass spectrometry. Antifungal susceptibility tests were performed on 15 isolates of Candida spp. evaluated against fluconazole and 15 Aspergillus spp. tested against itraconazole and voriconazole, by broth microdilution and mass spectrometry methods. MALDI-TOF MS correctly identified 100% of the Aspergillus spp. isolates and 85.71% of Fusarium spp. Mass spectra have been collected from 50 filamentous fungi for the implementation of a database with local isolates. Comparing the susceptibility results obtained by the different testing methods, the overall agreement rate was 91.11%. Full agreement (100%) was reached analyzing Aspergillus against voriconazole and Candida against fluconazole, and 73.33% of agreement was obtained for Aspergillus against itraconazole. This study demonstrated MALDI-TOF MS’ potential as a fast and accurate method for filamentous fungi identification. However, for some species, there is a need to improve the reference spectra database. MALDI-TOF MS was shown to be effective for antifungal susceptibility testing application, being a faster alternative when compared to traditional methods Mestrado Patologia Clínica Mestra em Ciências CNPQ 132185/2019-9

We identified the processes governing natural land subsidence in a shallow coastal aquifer near Ravenna (North eastern Italy) by analysing the relationships among different data set time series (water table level, rainfall, drainage, sea level, etc.) and establishing the correlations with vertical ground motion observed at a high-resolution settlement gauge. For the first time we establish the relationships between water table fluctuations and vertical displacement in a real field dataset as well as demonstrate the important contribution of primary consolidation and aquifer stratigraphy to natural land subsidence. Our study highlights the presence of three deformation components related to different processes controlling land subsidence: elastic, delayed-elastic, and irreversible (plastic) components. The elastic and delayed-elastic components are closely related to water table fluctuations that change the effective stress in two portions of the coastal aquifer at a daily (in the sandy unconfined portion) and seasonal time scales (in the finely layered clay-rich semiconfined prodelta portion), respectively. The irreversible component represents the trend in the land subsidence time series and is due to primary consolidation (pore water pressure dissipation) of the fine-grained prodelta levels above where the settlement gauge is located. The amplitudes of the elastic component can be up to 0.2–0.3 mm whereas the amplitude of the delayed-elastic component reaches 0.89 mm. The primary consolidation rate of deformation is 0.9 mm/year and constrains the likely age of prodelta sediments deposition to 1300–2800 years before present. The average degree of consolidation for the prodelta sediments varies from 0.8 to 0.99 according to consolidation coefficients varying from 1.58 to 3.15 m2/year, which are accepted values in the literature. Our analysis point out that primary consolidation in the shallow fine-grained sediments of the shallow coastal aquifer is still ongoing. The delayed-elastic land subsidence rate has similar magnitude to that due to primary consolidation and is likely connected to poroelastic effects in the prodelta sequence following seasonal variations in water table. Our findings are important for planning land subsidence management and monitoring strategies especially where the surface aquifer structure is heterogeneous due to different depositional settings.

open 8 no Multiple processes contributing to natural land subsidence in a shallow coastal aquifer near Ravenna (Italy) were identified by analysing the relationships among different data set time series (water table level, rainfall, land reclamation drainage, sea level, etc.) and establishing the correlations with vertical ground motion observed at a high-resolution settlement gauge. Our study highlights the presence of three deformation components related to different processes controlling land subsidence: elastic, delayed-elastic, and irreversible (plastic) components. The elastic and delayed-elastic components are closely related to water table fluctuations that change the effective stress in two portions of the coastal aquifer at a daily (in the sandy unconfined portion) and seasonal time scales (in the layered clay-rich semi-confined prodelta portion), respectively. The irreversible component represents the trend in the land subsidence time series and is due to primary consolidation (pore pressure dissipation) of the fine-grained prodelta levels above where the settlement gauge is located. The amplitudes of the elastic component can be up to 0.2–0.3 mm whereas the amplitude of the delayed-elastic component reaches 0.89 mm. The primary consolidation rate of deformation is 0.9 mm yr−1 and constrains the likely age of prodelta sediments deposition to 1300–2800 years before present. The delayed-elastic subsidence rate has similar magnitude to that due to primary consolidation and is connected to poroelastic effects in the prodelta sequence following seasonal variations in water table. Our findings are important for planning land subsidence management and monitoring strategies especially where the surface aquifer structure is heterogeneous due to different depositional settings. The natural land subsidence rate in the Holocene sediments of the shallow coastal aquifer of Ravenna (North eastern Italy) that we measured in this study accounts for 10 %–20 % of the total current land subsidence rate observed in this portion of Ravenna coastal area (10–20 mm yr−1). open Antonellini, Marco; Giambastiani, Beatrice Maria Sole; Greggio, Nicolas; Bonzi, Luciana; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Luciani, Paolo; Perini, Luisa; Severi, Paolo Antonellini, Marco; Giambastiani, Beatrice Maria Sole; Greggio, Nicolas; Bonzi, Luciana; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Luciani, Paolo; Perini, Luisa; Severi, Paolo

As a consequence of climate change and land subsidence, coastal zones are directly impacted by sea-level rise. In some particular areas, the effects on the ecosystem and urbanisation are particularly enhanced. We focus on the Emilia-Romagna (E-R) coastal plain in Northern Italy, bounded by the Po river mouth to the north and by the Apennines to the south. The plain is ∼ 130 km long and is characterised by wide areas below mean sea level, in part made up of reclaimed wetlands. In this context, several morphodynamic factors make the shore and back shore unstable. During next decades, the combined effects of land subsidence and of the sea-level rise as a result of climate change are expected to enhance the shoreline instability, leading to further retreat. The consequent loss of beaches would impact the economy of the region, which is tightly connected with tourism infrastructures. Furthermore, the loss of wetlands and dunes would threaten the ecosystem, which is crucial for the preservation of life and the environment. These specific conditions show the importance of a precise definition of the possible local impacts of the ongoing and future climate variations. The aim of this work is the characterisation of vulnerability in different sectors of the coastal plain and the recognition of the areas in which human intervention is urgently required. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) sea-level scenarios are merged with new high-resolution terrain models, current data for local subsidence and predictions of the flooding model in_CoastFlood in order to develop different scenarios for the impact of sea-level rise projected to year 2100. First, the potential land loss due to the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is extrapolated. Second, the increase in floodable areas as a result of storm surges is quantitatively determined. The results are expected to support the regional mitigation and adaptation strategies designed in response to climate change.

The Emilia-Romagna early-warning system (ER-EWS) is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system that comprises a series of numerical models (COSMO, ROMS, SWAN and XBeach) to obtain a daily 3-day forecast of coastal storm hazard at eight key sites along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy). On the night of 31 October 2012, a major storm event occurred that resulted in elevated water levels (equivalent to a 1-in-20- to 1-in-50-year event) and widespread erosion and flooding. Since this storm happened just 1 month prior to the roll-out of the ER-EWS, the forecast performance related to this event is unknown. The aim of this study was to therefore reanalyse the ER-EWS as if it had been operating a day before the event and determine to what extent the forecasts may have helped reduce storm impacts. Three different reanalysis modes were undertaken: (1) a default forecast (DF) mode based on 3-day wave and water-level forecasts and default XBeach parameters; (2) a measured offshore (MO) forecast mode using wave and water-level measurements and default XBeach parameters; and (3) a calibrated XBeach (CX) mode using measured boundary conditions and an optimized parameter set obtained through an extensive calibration process. The results indicate that, while a "code-red" alert would have been issued for the DF mode, an underprediction of the extreme water levels of this event limited high-hazard forecasts to only two of the eight ER-EWS sites. Forecasts based on measured offshore conditions (the MO mode) more-accurately indicate high-hazard conditions for all eight sites. Further considerable improvements are observed using an optimized XBeach parameter set (the CX mode) compared to default parameters. A series of what-if scenarios at one of the sites show that artificial dunes, which are a common management strategy along this coastline, could have hypothetically been constructed as an emergency procedure to potentially reduce storm impacts.

This paper aims at presenting and comparing two methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy, to evaluate coastal vulnerability and to produce hazard and risk maps for coastal floods, in the framework of the EU Floods Directive. The first approach was adopted before the directive had been issued. Three scenarios of damage were designed (1-, 10-, 100-year return periods), produced by the concurrent occurrence of a storm, high surge levels and high-water spring tidal levels. Wave heights were used to calculate run-up values along 187 equally spaced profiles, and these were added to the tidal and atmospheric water level contributions. The result is a list of 10 vulnerability typologies. To satisfy the requirements of the directive, the Geological, Seismic and Soil Service (SGSS) recently implemented a different methodology that considers three scenarios (10-, 100- and > 100-year return periods) in terms of wave setup (not including run-up) plus the contribution of surge levels as well as the occurrence of high-water springs. The flooded area extension is determined by a series of computations that are part of a model built into ArcGIS®. The model uses as input a high-resolution lidar DEM that is then processed using a least-path cost analysis. Inundation maps are then overlapped with land use maps to produce risk maps. The qualitative validation and the comparison between the two methods are also presented, showing a positive agreement.

Fra la terra e il mare: analisi e proposte per la Pianificazione dello Spazio Marittimo in Emilia-Romagna

As a consequence of climate change and human-induced land subsidence, coastal zones are directly impacted by sea-level rise. In some particular areas, the effects on the ecosystem and the urbanisation are particularly enhanced. We focus on the Emilia-Romagna coastal plain in Northern Italy, bounded by the Po river mouth to the north and by the Apennines to the south. The plain is ~ 130 km long and is characterised by wide areas below sea level, in part reclaimed wetlands. In this context, several morphodynamic factors make the shore and back-shore unstable. During next decades, the combined effects of land subsidence and of the sea-level rise in consequence of climate change are expected to enhance the shoreline instability, leading to a further retreat. The consequent loss of beaches would impact the economy of the region, tightly connected with tourism infrastructures. Furthermore, the loss of wetlands and dunes would threaten the ecosystem, crucial for the preservation of life and environment. These specific conditions show the importance of a precise definition of the possible local impacts of the ongoing and future climate variations. The aim of this work is the characterisation of vulnerability in different sectors of the coastal plain and the recognition of the areas in which human intervention is urgently required. The IPCC AR5 sea-level scenarios are merged with new high resolution terrain models, current data for local subsidence and predictions of a flooding model (in_CoastFlood) to develop different scenarios for the impact of sea-level rise to year 2100. First, the potential land loss due to the combined effect of subsidence and sea-level rise is extrapolated. Second, the increase of floodable areas in consequence of storm surges is quantitatively determined. The results are expected to support the regional mitigation and adaptation strategies designed in response to climate change.

The definition of storm morphological thresholds along the coast of the Emilia-Romagna Region strictly depends on its configuration and variability. The region is located in northern Italy, facing the Adriatic Sea. The coastline is characterised by very different levels of economic development, ranging from natural zones with dunes to highly developed stretches protected by breakwaters and groynes. The Integrated Coastal Zone Management effort is mainly concentrated on preserving urban areas that generate significant income for the regional economy. Natural areas, while small in comparison to the urbanised zone, are important for environment preservation. Because of such a multiplicity of issues at stake, it was decided to produce two different thresholds: one for the morphological impact on natural sectors and another for inundation and damage to structures along urbanised zones. The “forcing” component of the threshold definition for natural areas was calculated by summing the effects of surge + tide + waves (run-up elevation) to find the Maximum Water Level (MWL) reached by the sea during one, ten and one-hundred year storm return periods. For urbanised zones, historical storm information was collected starting from the 1960s in order to identify the forcing conditions causing real damages. Each storm was classified in terms of wave height, period, direction and surge level. Morphological information were obtained from Lidar flights performed in 2003 and 2004 and from direct surveys undertaken in September 2008 and February 2009 as part of the monitoring programme for the MICORE Project. The computed MWL for each return period was then compared to beach elevations along natural areas in order to calculate the Dune Stability Factor (DSF), an index that accounts for the eroded sediment volume above the MWL during a storm. Based on analysis along 41 profile lines at a 500 m spacing, it was found that the 1-in-1 year return period wave height + 1-in-1 year return period surge are able to erode and/or overwash 2/3 of the dunes. The historical storm hydrodynamic information was used to estimate which wave and surge conditions are able to inundate at least 2/3 of the beach profiles. The MWL was again compared to beach elevations, this time along 63 anthropogenic profiles spaced 500 m apart (or 1/3 of the urbanised coastline). It was found that a wave heights >= 2 m and surge + tide levels >= 0.7 m are able to flood between 18% and 36% of the built-up coast. The defined thresholds are related to the present coastal characteristics and are not “static”, meaning that they are likely to change according to future evolution of the coastline. They are very important because they can be used as thresholds to issue warnings and alert the Civil Protection. Moreover they are the first thresholds defined for the Emilia-Romagna coastline and will be used as starting values to generate “dynamic” thresholds based on numerical model predictions of morphological change for a given wave and surge level.

The paper presents the results of three-dimensional modelling of an area extending over approximately 800 square kilometres along the southern margin of the Po Delta. The geological model describes the Holocene sequence, here approximately 35-40 m thick. Developed on a framework of existing knowledge, it allows a more in-depth analysis of the subsurface stratigraphy of this sector of the Emilia-Romagna plain, identifying five units (including the Pleistocene substrate) that record the transgressive-regressive sedimentary cycle of the last 10 000 years. The geological model is used as base structure for developing 3D thematic mapping by processing cone penetration tests (CPT) data, their derived parameters and data related to the water quality of the coastal aquifer. Integration and correlation of the onshore geological data with marine geophysics and seabed core drillings has enabled the creation of a detailed model of recent deltaic and littoral morpho-depositional elements. This study shows that 3D modelling yields suitable tools for the insight and representation of the subsurface architecture and affords a better understanding of processes such as subsidence, saltwater intrusion into aquifers and the dynamics of coastal sands, processes, which are currently a matter of concern for the Emilia-Romagna regional government.

The Emilia-Romagna Region has developed an integrated system for the management of sea-storm risk based on agreements between different public authorities and industry, on cartographic products and IT services. A sea-storm occurred on 6 February 2015 offered the opportunity to test the part of the operative chain responsible for data collection, monitoring and analysis of the impacts, which belongs to the regional geological service (SGSS) and to improve the knowledge about the phenomenon. The forecast models have predicted two days before the severity of the event and the Civil Protection issued a prompt warning. It was activated immediately the observation procedure and the data collection, including remote sensing information (photos and movies), those were invaluable for the analysis of the impacts and for the creation of dedicated maps. Besides, it was possible to check the flood hazard maps of the Directive 2007/60, confirming the strength of the adopted model.

The extent of coastline urbanization reduces their resilience to flooding, especially in low-lying areas. The study site is the coastline of the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), historically affected by marine storms and floods. The main aim of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of this coastal area to marine flooding by considering the dynamics of the forcing component (total water level) and the dynamics of the receptor (urban areas). This was done by comparing the output of the three flooding scenarios (10, 100 and > 100 year return periods) to the output of different scenarios of future urban growth up to 2050. Scenario-based marine flooding extents were derived by applying the Cost–Distance tool of ArcGIS® to a high-resolution digital terrain model. Three scenarios of urban growth (similar-to-historic, compact and sprawled) up to 2050 were estimated by applying the cellular automata-based SLEUTH model. The results show that if the urban growth progresses compactly, flood-prone areas will largely increase with respect to similar-to-historic and sprawled growth scenarios. Combining the two methodologies can be useful for identification of flood-prone areas that have a high potential for future urbanization, and is therefore crucial for coastal managers and planners.

Il fenomeno dell'erosione costiera interessa circa 35 km della costa emiliano-romagnola e comporta gravi rischi per le infrastrutture, l'ambiente e l'economia turistica. Per contrastare tale tendenza la Regione Emilia-Romagna ha effettuato molteplici studi e sperimentazioni e, nell'ambito del programma di Gestione Integrata della zona costiera, ha deliberato di adottare il ripascimento quale tecnica prioritaria di intervento (Linee guida GIZC 2005). In questa ottica vengono condotti interventi cosiddetti 'ordinari', che sono quelli stagionali o volti a sanare le situazioni più critiche derivate da eventi di mareggiata particolarmente energetici, e interventi 'straordinari' che vengono effettuati ogni 5-6 anni al fine di compensare il sistema delle perdite di sedimento legate alla subsidenza e al mancato apporto di sabbia da parte dei fiumi. Per i primi si utilizzano sedimenti provenienti da accumuli litoranei, o in subordine da cava, mentre per gli interventi straordinari si sono utilizzate le sabbie dei depositi sottomarini, rinvenuti ad una distanza di circa 30-40 miglia al largo della costa regionale alla profondità del fondale di circa 30-50 metri. Tali depositi sono stati individuati nel corso degli anni '80 e '90 grazie ai numerosi rilievi (Colantoni et al., 1979; 1990; IDROSER SpA, 1985; 1990) condotti da ARPA Ingegneria Ambientale (ex Idroser) e ISMAR-CNR di Bologna (ex IGM-CNR). Recentemente è stata fatta una stima delle risorse di sabbia presenti al largo della costa della regione Emilia-Romagna, quantificata in 78 milioni di m3 (Correggiari et al., 2011). Negli ultimi 10 anni la Regione ha portato a termine due interventi "straordinari" nel 2002 e nel 2007, alimentando rispettivamente 8 e 7 spiagge, monitorate sia nel corso degli interventi che negli anni successivi (Preti M., 2011; Aguzzi et al., 2011). La quantità di sabbia apportata al sistema è stata, in totale, di circa 1,6 milioni di m3. I depositi di sabbia sottomarini sono una risorsa non rinnovabile che deve quindi essere gestita in modo oculato, con una logica di sostenibilità ambientale ed economica. A tal fine, per un miglior controllo delle strategie di sfruttamento, si rendono necessari piani e strumenti di controllo, quali un sistema informativo che raccolga tutti i dati acquisiti e le loro elaborazioni. In tale contesto il Servizio Geologico, Sismico e dei Suoli ha stipulato nel 2009 una convenzione con ISMAR-CNR di Bologna per la realizzazione di uno strumento informatico utile alla verifica delle operazioni di dragaggio e alla costruzione di scenari di intervento per la preparazione dei progetti esecutivi. Il prodotto potrà essere inserito all'interno del Sistema Informativo del Mare e della Costa. Altri geodatabase già realizzati, o in corso di sviluppo che risultano strettamente collegati al in_SAND, sono il Database dei Ripascimenti e il Database dell'Uso del Mare.

The ability to predict the imminent arrival of coastal storm risks is a valuable tool for civil protection agencies in order to prepare themselves and, if needs be, execute the appropriate hazard-reduction measures. In this study we present a prototype Early Warning System (EWS) for coastal storm risk on the Emilia-Romagna coastline in Northern Italy. This EWS is run by executing a chain of numerical models (SWAN, ROMS and XBeach) daily, with the final output transformed into a format suitable for decision making by end-users. The storm impact indicator selected for this site is the Safe Corridor Width (SCW), which is a measure of how much dry beach width is available for safe passage by beach users. A three-day time-series of the predicted SCW is generated daily by the prototype EWS. If the minimum SCW exceeds a certain threshold, a warning is issued to end-users via an automated email service. All available prediction information is also updated daily on-line. Over the one year that the EWS has been operating (June 2011 until June 2012), 13 “code red” and 16 “code orange” warnings have been issued, with the remaining 305 predictions indicating low hazard in terms of the SCW. The reliability of the predictions from the perspective of the end-user has meant that the EWS is currently being expanded to include the entire Emilia-Romagna coastline.