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Using quarterly data for 10 OECD countries and the Euro area and a Kalman filtering technique, we investigate the international co-movement among natural interest rates. We show that the US is the main source of global spillovers and global/common factors appear to be key drivers of such co-movement. Indeed, global liquidity is a net transmitter of shocks, while quantitative easing (QE) and the US Dollar are net recipients of shocks. We also find that total spillovers among natural interest rates have been rising since the late nineties, spiking at around economic re-cessions, periods of US monetary policy tightening, the global financial crisis and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. From a policy perspective, our findings suggest: (i) the need of more monetary policy coordination among countries to tackle common drivers of natural rates; (ii) the importance of complementing monetary policy with macro-financial stabilisation tools to ease the global constraints that it faces; (iii) a very gradual and uncertain monetary normalisation path, subject to spikes in financial markets' volatility; and (iv) a (lower) "new normal" level for real policy rates.

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are a historical key target of influenza vaccination programs. For the 2021–2022 season, WHO considered the coadministration of a flu and a COVID-19 vaccine as acceptable and recommended it to allow for higher uptake of both vaccines. The aim of this study was to investigate demographic and occupational features of vaccinated HCWs, reasons behind flu vaccine acceptance and a possible effect of the coadministration of a COVID-19 vaccine, in order to potentially draw general conclusions on HCWs’ attitude towards flu vaccination and inform further strategies for consistent improvement of vaccine acceptance. Methods: a promotional and educational campaign, a gaming strategy, and vaccination delivery through both a large central hub and on-site ambulatories, were the implemented strategies. In the central hub, the flu/COVID-19 vaccine coadministration was offered. Statistical descriptive analysis, multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and logistic regression models were performed. Results: 2381 HCWs received the flu vaccine, prompting a vaccination coverage rate (VCR) of 52.0% versus 43.1% in the 2020–2021 campaign. Furthermore, 50.6% vaccinated HCWs belonged to the 18–39 years-old age group. The most expressed reasons for vaccine uptake were “Vaccination is the most effective strategy of prevention” (n = 1928, 81.0%), “As HCW it’s my duty to get vaccinated to protect my patients” (n = 766, 32.2%), and the group of COVID-19-related reasons (n = 586, 24.6%). In addition, 23.3% HCWs received the flu vaccine in the current campaign but not in the previous one (newly vaccinated) and the flu/COVID-19 vaccine coadministration was more frequent in this group. A total of 51.0% HCWs were hesitant towards the coadministration, while residents and nurses showed the highest propensity to receive it. Conclusions: in the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fondazione’s influenza VCR continued to increase, with the greatest participation among HCWs aged 18–39 years. A potential propelling role of the COVID-19 vaccine coadministration was highlighted.

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are a historical key target of influenza vaccination programs. For the 2021-2022 season, WHO considered the coadministration of a flu and a COVID-19 vaccine as acceptable and recommended it to allow for higher uptake of both vaccines. The aim of this study was to investigate demographic and occupational features of vaccinated HCWs, reasons behind flu vaccine acceptance and a possible effect of the coadministration of a COVID-19 vaccine, in order to potentially draw general conclusions on HCWs' attitude towards flu vaccination and inform further strategies for consistent improvement of vaccine acceptance.a promotional and educational campaign, a gaming strategy, and vaccination delivery through both a large central hub and on-site ambulatories, were the implemented strategies. In the central hub, the flu/COVID-19 vaccine coadministration was offered. Statistical descriptive analysis, multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and logistic regression models were performed.2381 HCWs received the flu vaccine, prompting a vaccination coverage rate (VCR) of 52.0% versus 43.1% in the 2020-2021 campaign. Furthermore, 50.6% vaccinated HCWs belonged to the 18-39 years-old age group. The most expressed reasons for vaccine uptake were "Vaccination is the most effective strategy of prevention" (n = 1928, 81.0%), "As HCW it's my duty to get vaccinated to protect my patients" (n = 766, 32.2%), and the group of COVID-19-related reasons (n = 586, 24.6%). In addition, 23.3% HCWs received the flu vaccine in the current campaign but not in the previous one (newly vaccinated) and the flu/COVID-19 vaccine coadministration was more frequent in this group. A total of 51.0% HCWs were hesitant towards the coadministration, while residents and nurses showed the highest propensity to receive it.in the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fondazione's influenza VCR continued to increase, with the greatest participation among HCWs aged 18-39 years. A potential propelling role of the COVID-19 vaccine coadministration was highlighted.

Fiscal rules are typically seen as government constraints. Yet, the extent to which they are substituted or complemented by market discipline (especially, during financial stress) remains unexplored. Using data for 71 countries over the period 1985–2015, we estimate an “augmented” fiscal reaction function to assess the impact of both fiscal and market discipline. We find that different market signals influence fiscal policy, but fiscal discipline depends on market incentives. In the EU and the OECD, market signals complement fiscal rules. These are less effective in the EMU and non-OECD countries that are “debt intolerant”. Yet, there are unintended consequences: (i) neither output and debt stabilisation, nor fiscal rules affect the fiscal stance in the absence of financial crises; and (ii) financial stress makes fiscal discipline a destabilising factor, while central bank actions almost dismiss it. Finally, market (fiscal) discipline effects are (not) persistent and stronger (more uncertain) for the EMU.

We study the behaviour of real interest rate gaps-i.e. periods of real interest rates above (below) the natural interest rate-and link their length with a set of key observable determinants. Using quarterly data for 13 OECD countries over (close to) the last 60 years, we find that global risk-taking, CPI inflation, (un)conventional monetary policy, and income redistribution crucially shape the duration of both events. However, while labour-related supply-side factors appear to affect the length of positive interest rate gaps, the adoption of an inflation targeting regime and the current account balance seem to explain the duration of negative interest rate gaps. Our results suggest that the "normalisation" of the conduct of monetary policy is likely to be very gradual, and subject to spikes in uncertainty and financial markets' volatility.

Structural and metabolic imaging are fundamental for diagnosis, treatment and follow-up in oncology. Beyond the well-established diagnostic imaging applications, ultrasounds are currently emerging in the clinical practice as a noninvasive technology for therapy. Indeed, the sound waves can be used to increase the temperature inside the target solid tumors, leading to apoptosis or necrosis of neoplastic tissues. The Magnetic resonance-guided focused ultrasound surgery (MRgFUS) technology represents a valid application of this ultrasound property, mainly used in oncology and neurology. In this paper, patient safety during MRgFUS treatments was investigated by a series of experiments in a tissue-mimicking phantom and performing ex vivo skin samples, to promptly identify unwanted temperature rises. The acquired MR images, used to evaluate the temperature in the treated areas, were analyzed to compare classical proton resonance frequency (PRF) shift techniques and referenceless thermometry methods to accurately assess the temperature variations. We exploited radial basis function (RBF) neural networks for referenceless thermometry and compared the results against interferometric optical fiber measurements. The experimental measurements were obtained using a set of interferometric optical fibers aimed at quantifying temperature variations directly in the sonication areas. The temperature increases during the treatment were not accurately detected by MRI-based referenceless thermometry methods, and more sensitive measurement systems, such as optical fibers, would be required. In-depth studies about these aspects are needed to monitor temperature and improve safety during MRgFUS treatments.

Using long-term sovereign ratings data for a panel of 130 countries over the last three decades, we investigate the duration and determinants of sovereign rating phases through the lens of discrete-time Weibull models. We find that the likelihood of the end of the ‘speculative-grade’ phase increases as time goes by (i.e. there is positive duration dependence), but the ‘investment-grade’ phase is not duration dependent. Thus, for sovereigns rated as speculative, the build-up of reputation as good borrowers is a gradual process, whereas the reputation of investment-grade sovereigns solidifies and remains unchanged as time passes. However, the length of both phases significantly depends on the country's economic conditions. In particular, lower inflation, stronger growth and sounder fiscal policies shorten (prolong) the speculative- (investment-) grade phase. In addition, better governance quality helps to reduce the duration of speculative-grade phases.

Background. Fitness (FI) and swimming instructor (SI) are two different type of trainers that are usually employed in fitness centers and their profession is highly physically demanding because they have to exercise while teaching. To date, data on occupational disorders in FI are limited and there is no information about SI. Therefore, the primary outcome of this study was an exploratory analysis of occupational disorders experienced by FI and SI employed in various fitness centers through a self-reported questionnaire, to provide first data on its prevalence. The secondary outcome was to assess fitness levels, workloads and perceived exertion during a typical working day of SI and FI in order to explore the possible factors associated with occupational disorders in these professional activities.Methods. An online cross-sectional survey addressing physical data, frequency, duration and time of class participation and self-reported occupational disorders was conducted among 435 subjects (FI=254; SI=179). Subsequently, 97 subjects (FI=57; SI=42), were enrolled to investigate physical fitness by maximal oxygen consumption (BO2max), and daily workload by heart rate (HR) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE).Results. A total of 621 musculoskeletal disorders and 521 of other disorders were included in the study with 157 and 155 participants that experienced 2 or more injuries during the last 2 years of their career, respectively. FI exhibited a higher prevalence of musculoskeletal injuries and SI experienced more upper respiratory tract infections. aO2max ranged from 47.0±4.0 to 51.9±3.7 ml·kg-1·min-1, and no statistically significant differences between sex and instructor type was found. No statistical differences between instructor type in HRmean and HRmean/HRmax was found. According to sex, female SI displayed significantly higher HRmean and HRmean/HRmax (p=0.018, p=0.022, respectively) than female FI.Conclusions. In conclusion, FI and SI experienced a high prevalence of musculoskeletal and occupational disorders. Moreover, data on FI and SI physical fitness and daily workload monitoring will help to set up guidelines regarding maximum weekly teaching load.

We use a novel continuous-time Weibull model (without and) with a change-point in the duration dependence parameter to investigate the duration of the exit and re-entry of sovereigns to international capital markets. Relying on annual data for a large panel of countries over the period 1970-2011, we find that, as the reputation of debtor countries as good (bad) borrowers solidifies over time, those episodes are more likely to end - i.e. the "legacy of time". Debtor countries can take advantage of the "benefit of doubt" of creditors during short exit spells. However, when exits are long and the reputation as a bad borrower emerges, no more "complacency" makes it more difficult for them to borrow again in international capital markets - i.e. the "tyranny of time". We also find that: (i) government stability and multilateral financial assistance play a crucial role; (ii) the dynamics of the duration of exit (re-entry) spells is robust to the presence of default episodes, the default length and the haircut size; and (iii) exit and re-entry have shortened over time.

We employ a discrete-time parametric duration model on a group of 121 countries over the period 1970–2011 and find that the probability of the end of financial markets' shutdown and reaccess falls as these events become longer. We also show that: (1) shutdown episodes are longer when economic prospects are poor and the degree of financial openness falls, the chief executive has been in office for long periods, and the country has a default history and (2) spells of reaccess tend to be longer when economic growth improves and financial openness increases, there are neither government crises nor government instability, and the country did not default in the past. (JEL C41, G15)

We find that fiscal austerity is associated with a reduction of human development standards, with the negative effect being particularly severe in the case of spending-driven consolidation episodes. Fiscal adjustments are especially damaging for human development in developing countries (namely, African and Latin American countries). Additionally, the empirical evidence shows that (i) government stability is a crucial institutional determinant of human development, and (ii) while investment in physical capital can boost human development, government consumption and inflation are detrimental to it. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using quarterly data for a group of 20 industrialized countries and both continuous- and discrete-time duration models, we show that financial crisis recessions are associated with a two- to three-fold increase in the likelihood of the end of a housing boom. Additionally, recessions preceded by booms in mortgage credit are especially damaging, as their occurrence coincides with an increase in the duration of housing market slumps of almost 90%.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate if the time of the day (8.00 a.m. vs 8.00 p.m.) and chronotype could influence autonomic cardiac control in soccer players in relation to an acute session of high-intensity interval training. The morningness-eveningness questionnaire was administered to recruit Morning-type and Evening-type collegiate male soccer players. Therefore, 24 players (12 Morning-types and 12 Evening-types) were randomly assigned, to either morning (n = 12; age 23 ± 3 years; height 1.75 ± 0.07 m; body mass 73 ± 10 kg; weekly training volume 8 2 hours), or evening (n = 12; age 21 ± 3 years; height 1.76 ± 0.05 m; body mass 75 ± 11 kg; weekly training volume 8 ± 3 hours) training. Heart Rate Variability vagal and sympatho/vagal indices were calculated in time, frequency and complexity domains at rest, before, after 12 and 24 hours of high-intensity interval training. Before evening training session, a higher resting heart rate was observed which was determined by a marked parasympathetic withdrawal with a sympathetic predominance. Moreover, Evening-type subjects during morning training session, present a significant higher heart rate that corresponded to significant higher vagal indices with a significant lower parasympathetic tone that returned to the rest values after 24 hours of the cessation of high-intensity interval training exercise. On the contrary, Morning-type subjects did not reveal any significant differences with Evening-Type subjects during evening high-intensity interval training session. Stress response of high-intensity interval training is influenced by both the time of the day and by the chronotype. Understanding the Heart Rate Variability response to high-intensity interval training can be an additional important procedure for evaluating of cardiovascular recovery in soccer players. Moreover, these results suggest that an athlete’s chronotype should be taken into account when scheduling a high-intensity interval training exercise.

We investigate the response of the central bank to the change in size of non-bank financial intermediaries. Using quarterly data for the U.S. over the period 1946:Q1-2016Q4, we find that when faced with an increase in the asset growth of the securities' brokers and dealers and the shadow banking sector, the monetary authority reacts by raising the short-term nominal interest rate. This response is stronger in the case of sharp variation in the size of the balance sheet of nonbank financial intermediaries. From a policy perspective, our study suggests that an extended version of the original Taylor rule - embedding both price stability and financial stability concerns – provides a good characterisation of the monetary policy reaction function.

We use duration analysis to assess the impact of securitization, mortgage sector liberalization and government involvement in housing finance on the length of housing booms, busts and normal times in a panel of 20 OECD countries over the period 1970Q1-2015Q4. Our results reveal that a move towards a more liberalized mortgage sector is associated with longer housing booms, while an increase in securitization is linked with shorter housing busts. They also show that the length of housing booms and busts is particularly sensitive to housing finance characteristics, but that does not seem to be the case for normal times. Additionally, government support measures do not necessarily cushion against housing busts. A careful assessment of their distributional impact, as well as their effect on the trade-off between liquidity and guarantee/loan provision, is also required to prevent (longer) housing booms. All in all, housing finance regulation may prove especially relevant to shield against the damaging effects of housing busts and the financial stability risks associated with housing booms. Monetary policy can also be an important complement to macro-prudential policies. Finally, government participation in housing finance should be designed in a way that avoids an undesirable amplification of house price fluctuations.

Exercise prescription has been widely deepened and discussed by National and International Organizations. Lack of physical activity has been demonstrated to be associated to premature all causes mortality and chronic diseases. Although developing an active lifestyle is one of the most effective preventive treatment for chronic diseases, more than 25% of adults doesn't match the current guidelines about physical exercise around the world. The existing guidelines suggest the practice of moderate-intensity physical activity in combination with muscle-strengthening and flexibility exercises; none of them takes into consideration sedentariness and the amount of exercise performed during everyday-life activities. The aim of this article is to guide clinicians in exercise prescription by reviewing current international guidelines and introducing the new concept of "corrections factors": the amount of sedentary time is converted in more minutes of physical exercise; daily-life activities (e.g. steps) lessen the amount of time a person should perform physical exercise. These guidelines are currently under review to be utilized by Italian Health system as fundamental reference for exercise prescription.

We assess the spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle using quarterly data for 20 net oil-exporting and -importing industrial countries, and employing continuous- and discrete-time duration models. We do not uncover a statistically significant difference in the average duration of booms and normal times in the housing markets of those net oil-importers and net oil-exporters. Similarly, the degree of exposure to commodity price fluctuations does not seem to significantly affect the housing market cycle. However, we find that housing booms are shorter when oil prices increase than housing busts when oil prices decrease. We also show that the net oil-importers are more vulnerable to protracted housing slump episodes than the net-oil exporters., Compete 2020, Portugal 2020, Feder, FCT

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co-movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.

In this article, a fully unsupervised method for brain tissue segmentation of T1-weighted MRI 3D volumes is proposed. The method uses the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm and a Fully Connected Cascade Neural Network (FCCNN) classifier. Traditional manual segmentation methods require neuro-radiological expertise and significant time while semiautomatic methods depend on parameter's setup and trial-and-error methodologies that may lead to high intraoperator/interoperator variability. The proposed method selects the most useful MRI data according to FCM fuzziness values and trains the FCCNN to learn to classify brain’ tissues into White Matter, Gray Matter, and Cerebro-Spinal Fluid in an unsupervised way. The method has been tested on the IBSR dataset, on the BrainWeb Phantom, on the BrainWeb SBD dataset, and on the real dataset “University of Palermo Policlinico Hospital” (UPPH), Italy. Sensitivity, Specificity, Dice and F-Factor scores have been calculated on the IBSR and BrainWeb datasets segmented using the proposed method, the FCM algorithm, and two state-of-the-art brain segmentation software packages (FSL and SPM) to prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A qualitative evaluation involving a group of five expert radiologists has been performed segmenting the real dataset using the proposed approach and the comparison algorithms. Finally, a usability analysis on the proposed method and reference methods has been carried out from the same group of expert radiologists. The achieved results show that the segmentations of the proposed method are comparable or better than the reference methods with a better usability and degree of acceptance.

We investigate the role of global factors in explaining the length of commodity price cycle phases, using a continuous-time Weibull duration model and data for a panel of 33 countries over the period 1980Q1-2015Q4. We find evidence of increasing (constant) positive duration dependence for commodity price booms and busts (normal time spells). Global macroeconomic conditions - in particular, inflation, economic policy uncertainty and monetary policy actions - significantly affect the duration of all commodity price cycle phases. Global environmental conditions also impact the duration of commodity price booms, with a rise in average temperature (rainfall) increasing (reducing) their length. A rise in the number of military conflicts around the globe is associated with shorter booms and busts. Finally, we find that a rise in oil prices is linked with longer booms and shorter busts.

This paper analyses the transitions out of fiscal consolidations using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1975-2013 and applying a discrete-time competing risks duration model. Our approach allows us to distinguish the factors behind a successful or an unsuccessful end of fiscal consolidation episodes. The results show that economic and political factors, the size and typology of fiscal adjustments and the occurrence of crises explain the differences in the length and the success/failure of fiscal consolidations. Moreover, while fiscal adjustment programmes that end successfully display positive duration dependence, those that end in an unsuccessful manner are not duration dependent.

Using long-term sovereign ratings data for a panel of 130 countries over the last three decades, we rely on discrete-time Weibull models to investigate the duration and determinants of sovereign ratings phases. We find that the likelihood of the end of the 'speculative-grade' phase increases as time goes by (i.e. positive duration dependence), but the 'investment-grade' phase is not duration dependent. Thus, for sovereigns rated as speculative, the build-up of reputation as good borrowers is a gradual process, whereas the reputation of investment-grade sovereigns solidifies and remains unchanged as time passes. However, the length of both phases has proven to be significantly dependent on the country's economic conditions and the quality of governance. In particular, lower inflation, better economic performance and sounder fiscal policies shorten (prolong) the speculative- (investment-) grade phase. In addition, a better perception of the quality of public services and the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations help to reduce the duration of speculative-grade phases.

Using annual data for 13 European countries over the period 1980-2008, we assess the impact of national fiscal consolidations on the income inequality of European regions. Regional dispersion increases in the outcome of consolidation episodes, particularly, when packages are more severe and implemented through spending cuts rather than tax rises. From a policy perspective, these findings suggest that fiscal consolidations driven by reductions in government spending can exacerbate regional disparities and may ultimately counteract the European policy efforts to promote territorial cohesion. Our results are robust to alternative inequality measures, the occurrence of crisis episodes and the exclusion of fiscal outliers.

"Published online: 19 Oct 2015", Using a panel of 13 advanced economies for the period 1980–2012, we find that periods of impaired financial intermediation mainly accrue to maturity mismatches in sovereign debt. Thus, a higher (lower) share of short-term (medium and long-term) debt leads to an increase in the financial stress index. From a policy perspective, our work suggests that debt management policies translated into longer average maturities of sovereign debt not only reduce the expected debt servicing cost, but also mitigate strains in the financial sector., FCT Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (COMPETE 2020, PORTUGAL 2020, FEDER)

Building on a narrative approach to identify episodes of fiscal consolidation, data for a group of 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009 and continuous-time duration models, we find evidence suggesting that the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending increases over time, but only for programs that last less than six years. Additionally, fiscal consolidations tend to last longer in non-European than in European countries. Our results emphasize that chronic fiscal imbalances might lead to a vicious austerity cycle, while discipline in the behaviour of fiscal authorities is a means of achieving credible and shorter adjustment measures. Therefore, fiscal fatigue is likely to compromise the implementation and successfulness of fiscal consolidation programmes., COMPETE, QREN, FEDER, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)

In this paper, we assess the characteristics of the housing market and its main determinants. Using data for 20 industrial countries over the period 1970Q1–2012Q2 and a discrete-time Weibull duration model, we find that the likelihood of the end of a housing boom or a housing bust increases over time. Additionally, we show that the different phases of the housing market cycle are strongly dependent on the economic activity, but credit market conditions are particularly important in the case of housing booms. The empirical findings also indicate that although housing booms have similar lengths in European and non-European countries, housing busts are typically shorter in European countries. The use of a more flexible specification for the hazard function that is based on cubic splines suggests that it evolves in a nonlinear way. From a policy perspective, our study can be useful for predicting the timing and the length of housing boom–bust cycles. Moreover, it highlights the importance of monetary policy by influencing lending rates and affecting the likelihood of occurrence of housing booms.

"Published online: 15 Aug. 2014", Using a panel of developed and developing countries and data for the period 1980 to 2005, we find that debt crises trigger financial reforms.We also show that (i) when general economic conditions deteriorate, financial reforms become more likely to take place; (ii) IMF-stabilization programmes and sovereign debt restructurings favour the implementation of financial reforms; and (iii) the quality of economic institutions strongly boosts financial reforms., COMPETE, QREN, FEDER, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)

It is well known that fiscal policy can counter-cyclically smooth out the effect of unexpected shocks and public deficit volatility may reflect the (optimal) policy response to them. However, the welfare losses associated to fiscal instability are also an important challenge for many countries, as it typically implies an inefficient allocation of resources, higher sovereign risk premium and an inadequate provision of public services. In this paper, we empirically analyze the political, institutional, and economic sources of public deficit volatility. Using the system-generalized method-of-moments (GMM) estimator for linear dynamic panel data models and a sample of 125 countries analyzed from 1980 to 2006, we show that higher public deficit volatility is typically associated with higher levels of political instability and less democracy. In addition, public deficit volatility tends to be magnified for small countries, in the outcome of hyper-inflation episodes and for countries with a high degree of openness.

We develop a novel empirical approach to assess the effect of discretionary fiscal policy on private spending consisting of three stages: 1) extract the discretionary component of fiscal policy by estimating a fiscal policy rule; 2) use the residuals of the first-stage regression to investigate the existence of crowding-in and/or crowding-out effects both in the short and the medium term; and 3) condition the response of private spending on a set of country characteristics. We find that an expansion in discretionary fiscal policy boosts growth in the short term, but is detrimental in the medium term. In addition, the empirical findings suggest that the effect of discretionary fiscal policy on private spending varies across regions and income groups, and depends on countries' economic characteristics such as the level of economic development, trade openness, government and country size.

Using data for a large panel of countries, this paper investigates the role played by income inequality and fiscal stimuli episodes in shaping the likelihood of political stability. By means of Tobit estimations, we show that a rise in inequality increases the probability of government crises. However, such adverse distributional effect is reduced when expansionary or increasingly expansionary fiscal stimuli episodes or successful fiscal stimuli programs are put in place., COMPETE2020, Feder, Portugal 2020, FCT

This paper analyzes the dynamic impact of discretionary government consumption purchases on private demand. Using a panel of 132 countries from 1960 to 2008, we find that while discretionary changes in government consumption lead to crowding-in effects in the short run, crowding-out effects take over in the medium run. In addition, we also find that both short-term crowding-in and mediumterm crowding out effects are amplified once we control for periods of crisis., COMPETE; QREN; FEDER; Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)

We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. As a result, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to: (i) a contractionary effect of fiscal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding-out effects; (ii) a weakening of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in recent times; (iii) significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts; and (iv) an increase of the sensitivity of asset prices to fiscal policy shocks following the process of financial deregulation and mortgage liberalization. Finally, the evidence suggests that changes in equity prices may help governments towards consolidation of public finances., Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - Programa Operacional Ciência e Inovação 2010 (POCI 2010), Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional (FEDER)

In healthcare domain it can be useful to compare unstructured free-text clinical reports in order to enable the search for similar and/or relevant clinical cases. In data mining and text analysis tasks, the cosine similarity is usually used for texts comparison purposes. It is usually performed by computing the standard document vector cosine similarity between the two vectors representing the report pair under analysis. In this paper a novel system based on text pre-processing techniques and a modelled medical knowledge, using an improved radiological ontology, is proposed. Medical terms organized in a hierarchical tree can assess semantic similarity relationships between unstructured report concepts. The proposed retrieval system has been tested on a dataset composed of 126 unstructured mammographic reports written in Italian language, randomly extracted from the available reports in the Radiological Information System of the University of Palermo Policlinico Hospital. The ontology is composed of 731 concepts and it has been developed and enhanced with the collaboration of breast imaging expert radiologists. The proposed system computes the cosine similarity exploiting semantic vectors, adding the "is-a" and "equivalent-to" relationships to the enhanced ontology. It shows great improvements if compared against a classical syntactic method, giving a Sensitivity rise of +45,27%.

"Available online 1 August 2014", We test for nonlinear effects of asset prices on the fiscal policy of threemajor European economies (the UK, Italy and Spain).We model primary government spending and government revenue as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS). We find that while in Italy fiscal policy is substantially neutral vis-à-vis asset price movements, fiscal authorities in the UK and Spain seem to track the dynamics of wealth. In particular, revenue-based fiscal policy interventions in the UK are particularly effective in counteracting shocks in the asset markets induced by sharp wealth fluctuations. Similarly, in Spain, the spending-side of the fiscal policy plays a dominant role in stabilizing stock and housing markets., COMPETE, QREN, FEDER, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)

We use data for a panel of 60 countries over the period 1980–2005 to investigate the main drivers of the likelihood of structural reforms. We find that: (i) external debt crises are the main trigger of financial and banking reforms; (ii) inflation and banking crises are the key drivers of external capital account reforms; (iii) banking crises also hasten financial reforms; and (iv) economic recessions play an important role in promoting the necessary consensus for financial, capital, banking and trade reforms, especially in the group of OECD-countries. Additionally, we also observe that the degree of globalisation is relevant for financial reforms, in particular in the group of non-OECD countries. Moreover, an increase in the income gap accelerates the implementation of structural reforms, but increased political fragmentation does not seem to have a significant impact., COMPETE, QREN, FEDER, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)

This paper analyzes the impact of financial sector policy changes on the dynamics of public debt. Using a panel of 89 countries from 1973 to 2005, we find that while the implementation of (large) financial liberalisation policies significantly raises the public debt growth rate, the adoption of financial re-regulation measures leads to a mild reduction of public debt. Looking at the different typologies of financial sector policy changes, we show that stricter banking supervision, privatisations and restrictions to international capital flows contribute to a fast decline of the growth rate of public debt. In contrast, the removal of entry barriers and the elimination of interest rate controls boost public debt growth. Finally, our results confirm that financial re-regulation is more likely to succeed when inflation is high, while large financial liberalisation measures significantly raise public debt when economic growth is low. Our results are robust to various estimation techniques and model specifications and to the inclusion of different control variables., COMPETE, QREN, FEDER, FCT