Back to Search
Start Over
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, CREDIT MARKET CONDITIONS, AND THE HOUSING MARKET
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, CREDIT MARKET CONDITIONS, AND THE HOUSING MARKET
- Publication Year :
- 2018
- Publisher :
- Cambridge University Press, 2018.
-
Abstract
- In this paper, we assess the characteristics of the housing market and its main determinants. Using data for 20 industrial countries over the period 1970Q1–2012Q2 and a discrete-time Weibull duration model, we find that the likelihood of the end of a housing boom or a housing bust increases over time. Additionally, we show that the different phases of the housing market cycle are strongly dependent on the economic activity, but credit market conditions are particularly important in the case of housing booms. The empirical findings also indicate that although housing booms have similar lengths in European and non-European countries, housing busts are typically shorter in European countries. The use of a more flexible specification for the hazard function that is based on cubic splines suggests that it evolves in a nonlinear way. From a policy perspective, our study can be useful for predicting the timing and the length of housing boom–bust cycles. Moreover, it highlights the importance of monetary policy by influencing lending rates and affecting the likelihood of occurrence of housing booms.
- Subjects :
- Macroeconomics
Economics and Econometrics
050208 finance
05 social sciences
Monetary policy
Duration dependence
Settore SECS-P/02 Politica Economica
Housing Booms and Bust
Boom
Hazard
Duration Dependence
Cubic Spline
Bust
0502 economics and business
Economics
Weibull Model
Bond market
050207 economics
Duration (project management)
Duration Analysi
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....b2d4ec6dea03833cd62ad51c24e5aa75