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The long-term sediment demand of the Dutch coast is integral to the current Dutch Coastal Flood and Erosion Risk Management policy. The Coastal Genesis 2 research programme was initiated to address the sustainability of this policy under sea level rise by focusing on key uncertainties in the conceptual model of the sediment demand of the Dutch coast. The substantive scientific contributions of the Coastal Genesis 2 research programme are analysed in this paper by applying an output-outcome-impact framework. The direct outputs of the programme are categorised in terms of the knowledge types of a 5-element framework, namely measurement data, simulation models, system understanding, conceptual models, and policy and practice. The research outcomes arise from the interactions of these knowledge types. Our analysis of these outcomes highlights that synthesising new scientific insights into shared conceptual models is critical to achieving impact in policy and practice. In the Dutch situation, a new shared conceptual model of the long-term sediment demand enabled the development of four potential nourishment strategies aiming to meet the strategic goals of the Coastal Flood and Erosion Risk Management policy on a timescale up to 20 years. In 2021, the Minister of Infrastructure and Water Management officially articulated her intention to adopt the advised nourishment strategy from 2024 onwards. This represents a lasting impact of the Coastal Genesis 2 research programme in policy and practice. Further, the insight regarding the pivotal role of shared conceptual models as intermediary between science, policy and practice may prove useful in the design of future research programmes aiming to influence policy., Policy Analysis, Coastal Engineering

Coastal Engineering, Policy Analysis

The Dutch coast is one of the most heavily nourished coasts globally. An average of 12 mln. m3 is annually added to the coastline of only 432 km for dynamic coastline conservation. This study provides an overview of the operational aspects of the more than 300 nourishments for coastline maintenance that have been performed since the 1990s and discusses the evolution of the nourishment approach and lessons learned with regard to the nourishment design. The first nourishments were beach and dune nourishments to repair local beach and dune erosion. In the 1990s the nourishment efforts increased when nourishing the coastline was set in policy as the formal strategy to dynamically preserve the coastline. Simultaneously shoreface nourishments emerged, which aim to feed the coast gradually over a longer period than beach nourishments. In 2001 the volume of sand used for nourishments increased from 6.4 to 12 mln. m3 per year, to enable the coastal zone to stay in equilibrium with sea level rise. Channel wall nourishments were introduced around that time because they can slow down the landward migration of tidal channels and can accommodate large volumes of sediment. Nowadays, underwater nourishments are preferred because of the lower costs associated, but the decision for a beach, shoreface, or channel wall nourishment also depends on the morphology, the local setting, and the purpose of the nourishment. All nourishments combined have succeeded in conserving the coastline at its desired position over the past 30 years., Policy Analysis

The development of the Coastal Genesis 2 research programme and its role in contributing to Dutch coastal policy are described in the paper. The organisation of policy development related to coastal flood risk and erosion in The Netherlands is addressed, highlighting the division of responsibilities between the policy and operational directorates of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management. A conceptual model of the long term sediment budget of the Dutch coast that underpins the current Coastal Flood and Erosion Risk Management policy is detailed. The role of the operational directorate Rijkswaterstaat in coordinating a ‘Research for Policy’ cycle as a means of generating new insights on the coastal system and ensuring their subsequent inclusion in a new/revised conceptual model, is highlighted. By detailing the new conceptual model of the long term sediment budget, the paper demonstrates how key uncertainties related to this model guided the determination of the research agenda for Coastal Genesis 2. The paper concludes by reflecting briefly on the outcomes of the research programme and the role of the ‘Research for Policy’ cycle in ensuring the sustainable future of the Dutch coast., Policy Analysis

The sediment exchange between the Dutch Wadden Sea and the North Sea coastal zone is of key importance to Dutch coastal management. Net sediment import from the coastal zone to the Wadden Sea results in coastal erosion which needs to be compensated through nourishments. At the same time net sediment import is the source of sediment for the intertidal flats in the Wadden Sea to adapt to sea level rise (SLR). Understanding the current and future sediment exchange is therefore essential for sustainable coastal management. Insights in the sediment exchange directly influence the coastal nourishment strategies applied to the Dutch coasts. Projections of the future sediment exchange between the Dutch Wadden Sea and the North Sea are established using the aggregated morphodynamic model ASMITA for five sea level rise scenarios, viz. the present rate of 2 mm/yr and accelerated rates of 4, 6, 8 and 17 mm/yr in 2100. The differences in the projected import rates between the five sea level rise scenarios until 2100 are not as large as the differences in sea level rise rates may suggest. For the Eastern part of the Dutch Wadden Sea, where the morphology is near its dynamic equilibrium, the projected import rate in 2100 varies with a factor 3 (300%), for sea level rise rates from 2 to 17 mm/yr (factor 8.5, 850%). In the western part of the Dutch Wadden Sea, where the morphology is still far from equilibrium due to the closure of the Zuiderzee, the projected import rate in 2100 varies a factor 1.45 (145%) for these sea level rise rates. For the total Dutch Wadden Sea this is a factor 1.7 (170%). The projected increase of the import rate until 2100 with respect to the present situation (2020) is up to a factor 1.45 (145%) for the highest sea level rise scenario, which is significant but not substantial., Coastal Engineering

Coastal areas world wide are highly dynamic areas, subject to continuous deformation processes. Both natural and anthropogenic processes constantly cause changes at various spatial scales. Sandy beaches in the Netherlands fall under a regulation, according to which moving sand is permitted, if the volume change remains below a certain threshold. The threshold holds for volume changes within a cross section of 1 m width of the beach. The enforcement of this rule is currently labor intensive, because monitoring generally happens only on a yearly basis, or incidental and non-quantitative. Improved observation capabilities with remote sensing are advancing the supporting technology for this kind of regulations. Permanent laser scanning is a potential tool for monitoring and quantifying volume changes of a section of the beach. We develop and implement methodology to extract time series of volume change with respect to a reference date of 01-01-2020 covering January 2020 until the end of April 2020. The method is applied on point cloud data from a permanent laser scanner on the coast of Noordwijk, The Netherlands. We analyse the time series for incidents, where the threshold in volume change is passed, and find all shortest intervals during which the threshold is passed. Then we analyse potential underlying cause in order to support not only enforcement, but also evaluation of the current regulation. This will ultimately help to work towards a better understanding of the influence of small scale human activities on coastal development., Optical and Laser Remote Sensing, Policy Analysis, Coastal Engineering

The Wadden Sea is a unique intertidal wetland area, forming an important hub for migratory water birds. A feared effect of accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) is the gradual loss or even disappearance of the ecologically valuable intertidal flats. To date, the effect of SLR on the time-evolution of the intertidal areas in the Dutch Wadden Sea has not been studied. To explore the sensitivity of the intertidal flats to SLR and the spatial differentiation of the response, simulations are carried out with the reduced-complexity model ASMITA for four sea level rise scenarios: one with a stable rate of 2 mm/yr (current rate), and three with accelerated sea level rise rates to respectively 4, 6 and 8 mm/yr. In addition, a scenario with a linearly increasing rate to 17 mm/yr in 2100 has been added to get an impression of what may happen under more extreme SLR-rates. The results show that the intertidal flats in the larger basins are most vulnerable to drowning. Due to differences in tidal flat geometry, the intertidal flats in the smaller basins mainly reduce in average height, while the intertidal flats in the larger basins mainly reduce in surface area. Within the basins, largest losses are expected to occur just off the land reclamation works and along the western part of each tidal watershed. The intertidal flats are sensitive to the rate of SLR. With doubling the rate of SLR, losses nearly double as well. Complete drowning is not predicted for any of the considered scenarios, but for the larger basins volume losses of nearly 50% by 2100 are predicted for the highest considered scenario. This will transform these basins into more lagoon-like basins, which is expected to have major consequences for the ecology., Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public., Coastal Engineering

Coastal areas world wide are highly dynamic areas, subject to continuous deformation processes. Both natural and anthropogenic processes constantly cause changes at various spatial scales. Sandy beaches in the Netherlands fall under a regulation, according to which moving sand is permitted, if the volume change remains below a certain threshold. The threshold holds for volume changes within a cross section of 1 m width of the beach. The enforcement of this rule is currently labor intensive, because monitoring generally happens only on a yearly basis, or incidental and non-quantitative. Improved observation capabilities with remote sensing are advancing the supporting technology for this kind of regulations. Permanent laser scanning is a potential tool for monitoring and quantifying volume changes of a section of the beach. We develop and implement methodology to extract time series of volume change with respect to a reference date of 01-01-2020 covering January 2020 until the end of April 2020. The method is applied on point cloud data from a permanent laser scanner on the coast of Noordwijk, The Netherlands. We analyse the time series for incidents, where the threshold in volume change is passed, and find all shortest intervals during which the threshold is passed. Then we analyse potential underlying cause in order to support not only enforcement, but also evaluation of the current regulation. This will ultimately help to work towards a better understanding of the influence of small scale human activities on coastal development., Optical and Laser Remote Sensing, Policy Analysis, Coastal Engineering

The development of the Coastal Genesis 2 research programme and its role in contributing to Dutch coastal policy are described in the paper. The organisation of policy development related to coastal flood risk and erosion in The Netherlands is addressed, highlighting the division of responsibilities between the policy and operational directorates of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management. A conceptual model of the long term sediment budget of the Dutch coast that underpins the current Coastal Flood and Erosion Risk Management policy is detailed. The role of the operational directorate Rijkswaterstaat in coordinating a ‘Research for Policy’ cycle as a means of generating new insights on the coastal system and ensuring their subsequent inclusion in a new/revised conceptual model, is highlighted. By detailing the new conceptual model of the long term sediment budget, the paper demonstrates how key uncertainties related to this model guided the determination of the research agenda for Coastal Genesis 2. The paper concludes by reflecting briefly on the outcomes of the research programme and the role of the ‘Research for Policy’ cycle in ensuring the sustainable future of the Dutch coast., Policy Analysis

The sediment exchange between the Dutch Wadden Sea and the North Sea coastal zone is of key importance to Dutch coastal management. Net sediment import from the coastal zone to the Wadden Sea results in coastal erosion which needs to be compensated through nourishments. At the same time net sediment import is the source of sediment for the intertidal flats in the Wadden Sea to adapt to sea level rise (SLR). Understanding the current and future sediment exchange is therefore essential for sustainable coastal management. Insights in the sediment exchange directly influence the coastal nourishment strategies applied to the Dutch coasts. Projections of the future sediment exchange between the Dutch Wadden Sea and the North Sea are established using the aggregated morphodynamic model ASMITA for five sea level rise scenarios, viz. the present rate of 2 mm/yr and accelerated rates of 4, 6, 8 and 17 mm/yr in 2100. The differences in the projected import rates between the five sea level rise scenarios until 2100 are not as large as the differences in sea level rise rates may suggest. For the Eastern part of the Dutch Wadden Sea, where the morphology is near its dynamic equilibrium, the projected import rate in 2100 varies with a factor 3 (300%), for sea level rise rates from 2 to 17 mm/yr (factor 8.5, 850%). In the western part of the Dutch Wadden Sea, where the morphology is still far from equilibrium due to the closure of the Zuiderzee, the projected import rate in 2100 varies a factor 1.45 (145%) for these sea level rise rates. For the total Dutch Wadden Sea this is a factor 1.7 (170%). The projected increase of the import rate until 2100 with respect to the present situation (2020) is up to a factor 1.45 (145%) for the highest sea level rise scenario, which is significant but not substantial., Coastal Engineering

The Dutch coast is one of the most heavily nourished coasts globally. An average of 12 mln. m3 is annually added to the coastline of only 432 km for dynamic coastline conservation. This study provides an overview of the operational aspects of the more than 300 nourishments for coastline maintenance that have been performed since the 1990s and discusses the evolution of the nourishment approach and lessons learned with regard to the nourishment design. The first nourishments were beach and dune nourishments to repair local beach and dune erosion. In the 1990s the nourishment efforts increased when nourishing the coastline was set in policy as the formal strategy to dynamically preserve the coastline. Simultaneously shoreface nourishments emerged, which aim to feed the coast gradually over a longer period than beach nourishments. In 2001 the volume of sand used for nourishments increased from 6.4 to 12 mln. m3 per year, to enable the coastal zone to stay in equilibrium with sea level rise. Channel wall nourishments were introduced around that time because they can slow down the landward migration of tidal channels and can accommodate large volumes of sediment. Nowadays, underwater nourishments are preferred because of the lower costs associated, but the decision for a beach, shoreface, or channel wall nourishment also depends on the morphology, the local setting, and the purpose of the nourishment. All nourishments combined have succeeded in conserving the coastline at its desired position over the past 30 years., Policy Analysis

Climate change, and especially the associated acceleration of sea-level rise, forms a serious threat to the Wadden Sea. The Wadden Sea contains the world’s largest coherent intertidal flat area and it is known that these flats can drown when the rate of sea-level rise exceeds a critical limit. As a result, the intertidal flats would then be permanently inundated, seriously affecting the ecological functioning of the system. The determination of this critical limit and the modelling of the transient process of how a tidal basin responds to accelerated sea-level rise is of critical importance. In this contribution we revisit the modelling of the response of the Wadden Sea tidal basins to sea-level rise using a basin scale morphological model (aggregated scale morphological interaction between tidal basin and adjacent coast, ASMITA). Analysis using this aggregated scale model shows that the critical rate of sea-level rise is not merely influenced by the morphological equilibrium and the morphological time scale, but also depends on the grain size distribution of sediment in the tidal inlet system. As sea-level rises, there is a lag in the morphological response, which means that the basin will be deeper than the systems morphological equilibrium. However, so long as the rate of sea-level rise is constant and below a critical limit, this offset becomes constant and a dynamic equilibrium is established. This equilibrium deviation as well as the time needed to achieve the dynamic equilibrium increase non-linearly with increasing rates of sea-level rise. As a result, the response of a tidal basin to relatively fast sea-level rise is similar, no matter if the sea-level rise rate is just below, equal or above the critical limit. A tidal basin will experience a long process of ‘drowning’ when sea-level rise rate exceeds about 80% of the critical limit. The insights from the present study can be used to improve morphodynamic modelling of tidal basin response to accelerating se, Coastal Engineering

Climate change, and especially the associated acceleration of sea-level rise, forms a serious threat to the Wadden Sea. The Wadden Sea contains the world’s largest coherent intertidal flat area and it is known that these flats can drown when the rate of sea-level rise exceeds a critical limit. As a result, the intertidal flats would then be permanently inundated, seriously affecting the ecological functioning of the system. The determination of this critical limit and the modelling of the transient process of how a tidal basin responds to accelerated sea-level rise is of critical importance. In this contribution we revisit the modelling of the response of the Wadden Sea tidal basins to sea-level rise using a basin scale morphological model (aggregated scale morphological interaction between tidal basin and adjacent coast, ASMITA). Analysis using this aggregated scale model shows that the critical rate of sea-level rise is not merely influenced by the morphological equilibrium and the morphological time scale, but also depends on the grain size distribution of sediment in the tidal inlet system. As sea-level rises, there is a lag in the morphological response, which means that the basin will be deeper than the systems morphological equilibrium. However, so long as the rate of sea-level rise is constant and below a critical limit, this offset becomes constant and a dynamic equilibrium is established. This equilibrium deviation as well as the time needed to achieve the dynamic equilibrium increase non-linearly with increasing rates of sea-level rise. As a result, the response of a tidal basin to relatively fast sea-level rise is similar, no matter if the sea-level rise rate is just below, equal or above the critical limit. A tidal basin will experience a long process of ‘drowning’ when sea-level rise rate exceeds about 80% of the critical limit. The insights from the present study can be used to improve morphodynamic modelling of tidal basin response to accelerating se, Coastal Engineering

The Wadden Sea is a unique coastal wetland containing an uninterrupted stretch of tidal flats that span a distance of nearly 500 km along the North Sea coast from the Netherlands to Denmark. The development of this system is under pressure of climate change and especially the associated acceleration in sea-level rise (SLR). Sustainable management of the system to ensure safety against flooding of the hinterland, to protect the environmental value and to optimise the economic activities in the area requires predictions of the future morphological development. The Dutch Wadden Sea has been accreting by importing sediment from the ebb-tidal deltas and the North Sea coasts of the barrier islands. The average accretion rate since 1926 has been higher than that of the local relative SLR. The large sediment imports are predominantly caused by the damming of the Zuiderzee and Lauwerszee rather than due to response to this rise in sea level. The intertidal flats in all tidal basins increased in height to compensate for SLR. The barrier islands, the ebb-tidal deltas and the tidal basins that comprise tidal channels and flats together form a sediment-sharing system. The residual sediment transport between a tidal basin and its ebb-tidal delta through the tidal inlet is influenced by different processes and mechanisms. In the Dutch Wadden Sea, residual flow, tidal asymmetry and dispersion are dominant. The interaction between tidal channels and tidal flats is governed by both tides and waves. The height of the tidal flats is the result of the balance between sand supply by the tide and resuspension by waves. At present, long-term modelling for evaluating the effects of accelerated SLR mainly relies on aggregated models. These models are used to evaluate the maximum rates of sediment import into the tidal basins in the Dutch Wadden Sea. These maximum rates are compared to the combined scenarios of SLR and extraction-induced subsidence, in order to explore the future, Coastal Engineering

The Wadden Sea is a unique coastal wetland containing an uninterrupted stretch of tidal flats that span a distance of nearly 500 km along the North Sea coast from the Netherlands to Denmark. The development of this system is under pressure of climate change and especially the associated acceleration in sea-level rise (SLR). Sustainable management of the system to ensure safety against flooding of the hinterland, to protect the environmental value and to optimise the economic activities in the area requires predictions of the future morphological development. The Dutch Wadden Sea has been accreting by importing sediment from the ebb-tidal deltas and the North Sea coasts of the barrier islands. The average accretion rate since 1926 has been higher than that of the local relative SLR. The large sediment imports are predominantly caused by the damming of the Zuiderzee and Lauwerszee rather than due to response to this rise in sea level. The intertidal flats in all tidal basins increased in height to compensate for SLR. The barrier islands, the ebb-tidal deltas and the tidal basins that comprise tidal channels and flats together form a sediment-sharing system. The residual sediment transport between a tidal basin and its ebb-tidal delta through the tidal inlet is influenced by different processes and mechanisms. In the Dutch Wadden Sea, residual flow, tidal asymmetry and dispersion are dominant. The interaction between tidal channels and tidal flats is governed by both tides and waves. The height of the tidal flats is the result of the balance between sand supply by the tide and resuspension by waves. At present, long-term modelling for evaluating the effects of accelerated SLR mainly relies on aggregated models. These models are used to evaluate the maximum rates of sediment import into the tidal basins in the Dutch Wadden Sea. These maximum rates are compared to the combined scenarios of SLR and extraction-induced subsidence, in order to explore the future, Coastal Engineering

Paleogeografie is de wetenschap van het beschrijven van de landschapsontwikkeling op basis van de opbouw van de ondergrond en de dynamiek van het voormalige landschap. Haar kennis en methodieken kunnen worden ingezet voor de reconstructie van overstromingen in de Nederlandse delta in het recente geologische verleden. Dit vooronderzoek is een inventarisatie van de bruikbaarheid van de huidige paleogeografische inzichten voor de verbetering van de veiligheid tegen overstromen, en een verkenning van de mogelijkheden dit inzicht op korte termijn te vergroten. De inventarisatie heeft tot doel: 1. Inzichtelijk te maken welke mogelijkheden kennis en inzicht in de paleogeografie van Nederland biedt voor het verbeteren van de veiligheid tegen overstromen; 2. Een overzicht geven van de huidige kennis op het gebied van extreme overstromingen in de laatste 5000 jaar; 3. Inzichtelijk te maken wat op korte en langere termijn te verwachten is van paleogeografische resultaten, voor herhalingsfrequentieschattingen van piekafvoeren. 4. Het doen van een schatting van de verwachte inspanningen en doorlooptijd, bij voorgestelde aanpakken van gekoppeld onderzoek naar overstromingen en veiligheid.

Paleogeografie is de wetenschap van het beschrijven van de landschapsontwikkeling op basis van de opbouw van de ondergrond en de dynamiek van het voormalige landschap. Haar kennis en methodieken kunnen worden ingezet voor de reconstructie van overstromingen in de Nederlandse delta in het recente geologische verleden. Dit vooronderzoek is een inventarisatie van de bruikbaarheid van de huidige paleogeografische inzichten voor de verbetering van de veiligheid tegen overstromen, en een verkenning van de mogelijkheden dit inzicht op korte termijn te vergroten. De inventarisatie heeft tot doel: 1. Inzichtelijk te maken welke mogelijkheden kennis en inzicht in de paleogeografie van Nederland biedt voor het verbeteren van de veiligheid tegen overstromen; 2. Een overzicht geven van de huidige kennis op het gebied van extreme overstromingen in de laatste 5000 jaar; 3. Inzichtelijk te maken wat op korte en langere termijn te verwachten is van paleogeografische resultaten, voor herhalingsfrequentieschattingen van piekafvoeren. 4. Het doen van een schatting van de verwachte inspanningen en doorlooptijd, bij voorgestelde aanpakken van gekoppeld onderzoek naar overstromingen en veiligheid.