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In this paper we present how automatic maritime anomaly detection tools can be successfully applied in real-world situations such as the major event of the container vessel Ever Given, which grounded in the Suez Canal on March 23rd 2021. The anomaly detector is designed to process the available sequence of Automatic Identification System (AIS) reports, information from ground-based or satellite radar systems if available, and contextual information defining the expected nominal behavior of navigation. A statistical hypothesis testing procedure is sequentially run to decide whether or not a deviation from the nominal behavior happened within a specific time period, for instance two consecutive data points. We show, based on the recorded AIS data from the Ever Given, that the proposed detector could have been triggered and alerted to anomalous behavior fully 19 minutes before the grounding.

The coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) is a public health challenge due to its rapid global spread. Its unprecedented speed and pervasiveness have led many governments to implement a series of countermeasures, such as lock-downs, stopping/restricting travels, and mandating social distancing. To control and prevent the spread of COVID-19, it is essential to understand the latent dynamics of the disease’s evolution and the effectiveness of the intervention policies. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) capture both randomnesses in spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty in observations. In this paper, we apply an overall HMM that, based on multiple nations’ COVID-19 data including the USA, several European countries, and countries that have strict control policies, explore different types of observations, and we use it to infer the severity state on small geographical states or regions in the USA and Italy as test cases. Further, we aggregate the severity level of each region over a fixed time period to visualize the time evolution and propagation across regions. Such an analysis and visualization provide suggestions for interventions and responses in a calibrated manner. Results from HMM modeling are consistent with what is observed in Italy and the USA and these models can serve as visualization and proactive decision support tools to policymakers.

Recent deep learning methods for vessel trajectory prediction are able to learn complex maritime patterns from historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and accurately predict sequences of future vessel positions with a prediction horizon of several hours. However, in maritime surveillance applications, reliably quantifying the prediction uncertainty can be as important as obtaining high accuracy. This paper extends deep learning frameworks for trajectory prediction tasks by exploring how recurrent encoder-decoder neural networks can be tasked not only to predict but also to yield a corresponding prediction uncertainty via Bayesian modeling of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We compare the prediction performance of two different models based on labeled or unlabeled input data to highlight how uncertainty quantification and accuracy can be improved by using, if available, additional information on the intention of the ship (e.g., its planned destination)., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures

A novel anomaly detection procedure based on the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) mean-reverting stochastic process is presented. The considered anomaly is a vessel that deviates from a planned route, changing its nominal velocity $\boldsymbol{v}_0$ . In order to hide this behavior, the vessel switches off its automatic identification system (AIS) device for a time $T$ and then tries to revert to the previous nominal velocity $\boldsymbol{v}_0$ . The decision that has to be made is declaring that a deviation either happened or not, relying only upon two consecutive AIS contacts. Furthermore, the extension to the scenario in which multiple contacts (e.g., radar) are available during the time period $T$ is also considered. A proper statistical hypothesis testing procedure that builds on the changes in the OU process long-term velocity parameter $\boldsymbol{v}_0$ of the vessel is the core of the proposed approach and enables the solution of the anomaly detection problem. Closed analytical forms are provided for the detection and false alarm probabilities of the hypothesis test.

During the course of an epidemic, one of the most challenging tasks for authorities is to decide what kind of restrictive measures to introduce and when these should be enforced. In order to take informed decisions in a fully rational manner, the onset of a critical regime, characterized by an exponential growth of the contagion, must be identified as quickly as possible. Providing rigorous quantitative tools to detect such an onset represents an important contribution from the scientific community to proactively support the political decision makers. In this paper, leveraging the quickest detection theory, we propose a mathematical model of the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and develop decision tools to rapidly detect the passage from a controlled regime to a critical one. A new sequential test—referred to as MAST (mean-agnostic sequential test)—is presented, and demonstrated on publicly available COVID-19 infection data from different countries. Then, the performance of MAST is investigated for the second pandemic wave, showing an effective trade-off between average decision delay $$\Delta$$ Δ and risk $$R$$ R , where $$R$$ R is inversely proportional to the time required to declare the need to take unnecessary restrictive measures. To quantify risk, in this paper we adopt as its proxy the average occurrence rate of false alarms, in that a false alarm risks unnecessary social and economic disruption. Ideally, the decision mechanism should react as quick as possible for a given level of risk. We find that all the countries share the same behaviour in terms of quickest detection, specifically the risk scales exponentially with the delay, $$R \sim \exp {(-\omega \Delta )}$$ R ∼ exp ( - ω Δ ) , where $$\omega$$ ω depends on the specific nation. For a reasonably small risk level, say, one possibility in ten thousand (i.e., unmotivated implementation of countermeasures every 27 years, on the average), the proposed algorithm detects the onset of the critical regime with delay between a few days to 3 weeks, much earlier than when the exponential growth becomes evident. Strictly from the quickest-detection perspective adopted in this paper, it turns out that countermeasures against the second epidemic wave have not always been taken in a timely manner. The developed tool can be used to support decisions at different geographic scales (regions, cities, local areas, etc.), levels of risk, instantiations of controlled/critical regime, and is general enough to be applied to different pandemic time-series. Additional analysis and applications of MAST are made available on a dedicated website.

Data-driven methods open up unprecedented possibilities for maritime surveillance using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. In this work, we explore deep learning strategies using historical AIS observations to address the problem of predicting future vessel trajectories with a prediction horizon of several hours. We propose novel sequence-to-sequence vessel trajectory prediction models based on encoder-decoder recurrent neural networks (RNNs) that are trained on historical trajectory data to predict future trajectory samples given previous observations. The proposed architecture combines Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) RNNs for sequence modeling to encode the observed data and generate future predictions with different intermediate aggregation layers to capture space-time dependencies in sequential data. Experimental results on vessel trajectories from an AIS dataset made freely available by the Danish Maritime Authority show the effectiveness of deep-learning methods for trajectory prediction based on sequence-to-sequence neural networks, which achieve better performance than baseline approaches based on linear regression or on the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) architecture. The comparative evaluation of results shows: i) the superiority of attention pooling over static pooling for the specific application, and ii) the remarkable performance improvement that can be obtained with labeled trajectories, i.e., when predictions are conditioned on a low-level context representation encoded from the sequence of past observations, as well as on additional inputs (e.g., port of departure or arrival) about the vessel's high-level intention, which may be available from AIS., Accepted for publications in IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems, 17 pages, 9 figures

This paper develops an easily-implementable version of Page's CUSUM quickest-detection test, designed to work in certain composite hypothesis scenarios with time-varying data statistics. The decision statistic can be cast in a recursive form and is particularly suited for on-line analysis. By back-testing our approach on publicly-available COVID-19 data we find reliable early warning of infection flare-ups, in fact sufficiently early that the tool may be of use to decision-makers on the timing of restrictive measures that may in the future need to be taken., Accepted to be published in IEEE Signal Processing Letters

In principle, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) makes covert rendezvous at sea, such as smuggling and piracy, impossible; in practice, AIS can be spoofed or simply disabled. Previous work showed a means whereby such deviations can be spotted. Here we play the opponent's side, and describe the least-detectable trajectory that the elusive vessel can take. The opponent's route planning problem is formalized as a non-convex optimization problem capitalizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the statistical hypotheses of the nominal and the anomalous trajectories as key performance measure. The velocity of the vessel is modeled with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) mean reverting stochastic process, and physical and practical requirements are accounted for by enforcing several constraints at the optimization design stage. To handle the resulting non-convex optimization problem, we propose a globally-optimal and computationally-efficient technique, called the Non-Convex Optimized Stealth Trajectory (N-COST) algorithm. The N-COST algorithm consists amounts to solving multiple convex problems, with the number proportional to the number of segments of the piecewise OU trajectory. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through case studies and a real-world example.

The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political authorities, such as national lockdowns, have not prevented the outbreak of new pandemic's waves. In this article, we propose an integrated detection-estimation-forecasting framework that, using publicly available data, is designed to: (i) learn relevant features of the pandemic (e.g., the infection rate); (ii) detect as quickly as possible the onset (or the termination) of an exponential growth of the contagion; and (iii) reliably forecast the pandemic evolution. The proposed solution is validated by analyzing the COVID-19 second and third waves in the USA., Comment: Accepted to be published in IEEE Communications Magazine, feature topic "Networking Technologies to Combat the COVID-19 Pandemic"

Maritime surveillance (MS) is of paramount importance for search and rescue operations, fishery monitoring, pollution control, law enforcement, migration monitoring, and national security policies. Since ground-based radars and automatic identification system (AIS) do not always provide a comprehensive and seamless coverage of the entire maritime domain, the use of space-based sensors is crucial to complement them. We reviewed space-based technologies for MS in the first part of this work, titled "Space-based Global Maritime Surveillance. Part I: Satellite Technologies" [1]. However, future MS systems combining multiple terrestrial and space-based sensors with additional information sources will require dedicated artificial intelligence and data fusion techniques for the processing of raw satellite images and fuse heterogeneous information. The second part of our work focuses on the most promising artificial intelligence and data fusion techniques for MS using space-based sensors., This paper has been submitted to IEEE Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine

Maritime surveillance (MS) is crucial for search and rescue operations, fishery monitoring, pollution control, law enforcement, migration monitoring, and national security policies. Since the early days of seafaring, MS has been a critical task for providing security in human coexistence. Several generations of sensors providing detailed maritime information have become available for large offshore areas in real time: maritime radar sensors in the 1950s and the automatic identification system (AIS) in the 1990s among them. However, ground-based maritime radars and AIS data do not always provide a comprehensive and seamless coverage of the entire maritime space. Therefore, the exploitation of space-based sensor technologies installed on satellites orbiting around the Earth, such as satellite AIS data, synthetic aperture radar, optical sensors, and global navigation satellite systems reflectometry, becomes crucial for MS and to complement the existing terrestrial technologies. In the first part of this work, we provide an overview of the main available space-based sensors technologies and present the advantages and limitations of each technology in the scope of MS. The second part, related to artificial intelligence, signal processing and data fusion techniques, is provided in a companion paper, titled: "Space-based Global Maritime Surveillance. Part II: Artificial Intelligence and Data Fusion Techniques" [1]., This paper has been submitted to IEEE Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine

To prevent the outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), many countries around the world went into lockdown and imposed unprecedented containment measures. These restrictions progressively produced changes to social behavior and global mobility patterns, evidently disrupting social and economic activities. Here, using maritime traffic data collected via a global network of Automatic Identification System (AIS) receivers, we analyze the effects that the COVID-19 pandemic and containment measures had on the shipping industry, which accounts alone for more than 80% of the world trade. We rely on multiple data-driven maritime mobility indexes to quantitatively assess ship mobility in a given unit of time. The mobility analysis here presented has a worldwide extent and is based on the computation of: Cumulative Navigated Miles (CNM) of all ships reporting their position and navigational status via AIS, number of active and idle ships, and fleet average speed. To highlight significant changes in shipping routes and operational patterns, we also compute and compare global and local vessel density maps. We compare 2020 mobility levels to those of previous years assuming that an unchanged growth rate would have been achieved, if not for COVID-19. Following the outbreak, we find an unprecedented drop in maritime mobility, across all categories of commercial shipping. With few exceptions, a generally reduced activity is observable from March to June 2020, when the most severe restrictions were in force. We quantify a variation of mobility between −5.62 and −13.77% for container ships, between +2.28 and −3.32% for dry bulk, between −0.22 and −9.27% for wet bulk, and between −19.57 and −42.77% for passenger traffic. The presented study is unprecedented for the uniqueness and completeness of the employed AIS dataset, which comprises a trillion AIS messages broadcast worldwide by 50,000 ships, a figure that closely parallels the documented size of the world merchant fleet.

If two radar sensors observe the same target their measurements can be combined to produce a fused target-state estimate that is of higher quality than that from one radar alone. If there are multiple targets whose information is shared, a necessary first step to fusion is to “assign” each measurement from the first sensor to that at the other in such a way that both refer to the same underlying object, a task generally accomplished by minimizing a global cost involving distance. An assignment error occurs when the measurement originated by target i at the first radar is wrongly associated to a measurement originated by target $j$ (not i) at the second radar. Naturally, when such an error occurs the result is fusion of information describing disparate objects, resulting in degraded estimation performance and poor self-assessment in terms of posterior uncertainty. Here we address the issue, and derive approximate assignment error probability. Remarkably, performance depends only upon the parameters combined to a single scalar constant.

In this paper, we address the problem of predicting vessel trajectories based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. The goal is to learn the predictive distribution of maritime traffic patterns using historical data during the training phase, in order to be able to forecast future target trajectory samples online on the basis of both the extracted knowledge and the available observation sequence. We explore neural sequence-to-sequence models based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) encoder-decoder architecture to effectively capture long-term temporal dependencies of sequential AIS data and increase the overall predictive power. The experimental evaluation on a real-world AIS dataset demonstrates the effectiveness of sequence-to-sequence recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for vessel trajectory prediction and shows their potential benefits compared to model-based methods.

In this article, we present a fully analytical model for the evaluation of the electromagnetic (EM) field scattered from a composite target in a generic bistatic configuration. The scenario comprises a rectangular parallelepiped target with smooth dielectric faces lying over a rough background surface, modeled as a stochastic process. The single- and multiple-bounce scattering contributions arising from the target, the rough background, and their interactions have been derived under the Kirchhoff approximation (KA)–geometrical optics (GO) solution. This framework enables the evaluation of the bistatic radar cross section (RCS) of the considered composite target via closed-form expressions. The proposed model exhibits good agreement with the literature results based on accurate and well-established numerical methods. Our analytical model is therefore proposed as a valid alternative to numerical techniques, being able to provide reliable results at a negligible computational burden. Finally, the role of the main scene parameters, i.e., target orientation, surface roughness, and polarization in the bistatic RCS of the target, have been analyzed and discussed.

In this paper, a sequential Bayesian framework is proposed to address the task of joint anomaly detection and tracking for surveillance applications in the presence of clutter. This is achieved by modeling the anomaly as a switching unknown control input which goes into action by modifying the expected dynamics of a target and ceases its activity (becomes nonexistent) under nominal behavior. Random Finite Sets (RFS) make it possible to represent the switching nature of the object anomalous behavior and derive a hybrid Bernoulli filter (HBF) that sequentially updates the joint posterior density of a Bernoulli RFS for the unknown velocity input and the object kinematic state. In addition, the proposed HBF has been customized for maritime anomaly detection by using a piecewise Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) stochastic process as dynamic model of vessels. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filter, implemented in Gaussian-mixture form, and compare its performance in a maritime surveillance example with the Interacting Multiple Model Probabilistic Data Association Filter (IMM - PDAF) for different levels of clutter.

Covariance matrix estimation is a crucial task in adaptive signal processing applied to several surveillance systems, including radar and sonar. In this paper we propose a dynamic learning strategy to track both the covariance matrix of data and its structure (class). We assume that, given the class, the posterior distribution of the covariance is described through a mixture of inverse Wishart distributions, while the class evolves according to a Markov chain. Hence, we devise a novel and general filtering strategy, called multi-class inverse Wishart mixture filter, able to capitalize on previous observations so as to accurately track and estimate the covariance. Some case studies are provided to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed technique, which is shown to outperform alternative methods in terms of both covariance estimation accuracy and probability of correct model selection. Specifically, the proposed filter is compared with class-clairvoyant covariance estimators, e.g., the maximum likelihood and the knowledge-based recursive least square filter, and with the model order selection method based on the Bayesian information criterion.

In this article, we carry out a simulation analysis of ship detection via Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) delay-Doppler map (DDM). The GNSS-R DDM simulator used here is a modified version of an algorithm conceived for the generation of GNSS-R DDMs of the sea surface. The new algorithm is based on an analytical model for the radar cross section of ships and is able to properly account for the presence of ship targets within the scene. The proposed GNSS-R DDM simulator is, then, exploited for assessing the viability of GNSS-R in ship detection applications at low incidence angles, where the adopted scattering models provide accurate results. The aim of the implemented simulation setup is to analyze what are the preferable conditions for ship detection using standard GNSS-R signal processing chain receiver and compare typical forward left-hand circularly polarized GNSS-R systems with nonstandard backward right-hand circularly polarized (RHCP) GNSS-R. The simulation study is two fold: first, detection performance is evaluated at spaceborne and airborne altitudes for both polarization channels under favorable detection conditions. Then, visibility of ship targets is assessed in terms of their location within the DDM. Simulation results show that ship detection is problematic when using satellite data, whereas interesting results are achieved at airborne altitudes, provided that the aircraft is approximately between the GNSS satellite and the target, and that appropriate RHCP polarization is probed. In such configurations, signal-to-noise-ratios larger than 10 dB are obtained with airborne receivers collecting the RHCP signal.

In this letter, we study the problem of estimating the long-run mean of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) stochastic process and its effect on the long-term prediction of future vessel states, which is a crucial problem for Maritime Situational Awareness (MSA). We employ a sample mean estimator (SME) to estimate the key OU parameter from the observations, computing the closed-form SME covariance error in both the random and constant sampling time regimes, providing a fundamental building block of the overall long-term state prediction covariance. We show also that the SME is: $\sqrt{n}$ -consistent when the sampling time is random; asymptotically efficient when the sampling time is constant; and very close to the Cramer–Rao lower bound in the cases of practical interest for MSA.

Recent research activities have investigated the feasibility of detecting ship targets from Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) receivers. It was concluded by both experimental and theoretical analyses that ship detection is infeasible from spaceborne receivers working in a conventional configuration. On the other hand, it was demonstrated that performance might be boosted by receiving the right-hand circular polarization (RHCP) channel in a backscattering configuration. In this paper, we assess the detectability of ship targets in GNSS-R delay-Doppler maps by means of a reliable stochastic GNSS-R simulation tool capable of accounting for the presence of the target. The results mainly confirm the previous theoretical analyses and demonstrate the feasibility of the ship detection problem using low-altitudes RHCP-backscattering GNSS-R.

In this work, we consider maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in a stochastic trajectory model. The velocity paths are generated from an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and thus revert to a latent expected value. In addition to this expected velocity, parameters that specify the reversion characteristics and the process noise covariance determine the behaviour of typical trajectories of the model. Estimation of these parameters from trajectory samples facilitates learning of patterns and training of predictive models using trajectory data, e.g., automatic identification system (AIS) messages transmitted by vessels. We propose a six-degrees-of-freedom parameterisation and investigate the identifiability of these parameters using the Cramer-Rao bound matrix which we estimate using Monte Carlo methods. We demonstrate that some parameter configurations of interest are identifiable and their maximum likelihood estimate can be found using iterative optimisation algorithms. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach on both simulated and real data.

Piecewise mean-reverting stochastic processes have been recently proposed and validated as an effective model for long-term object prediction. In this paper, we exploit the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) dynamic model to represent an anomaly as any deviation of the long-run mean velocity from the nominal condition. This amounts to modeling the anomaly as an unknown switching control input that can affect the dynamics of the object. Under this model, the problem of joint anomaly detection and tracking can be addressed within the Bayesian random set framework by means of a hybrid Bernoulli filter (HBF) that sequentially estimates a Bernoulli random set (empty under nominal behavior) for the unknown long-run mean velocity, and a random vector for the kinematic state of the object. An additional challenge is represented by the fact that two extra parameters, i.e. the reversion rate and the noise covariance of the underlying OU process, need to be specified for Bayes-optimal prediction. We propose a multiple-model adaptive filter (MMA-HBF) for anomaly detection, tracking and simultaneous estimation of the OU unknown parameters. The effectiveness of these tools is demonstrated on a simulated maritime scenario.

This paper furnishes a convenient theoretical framework for the analytical evaluation of the bistatic scattering coefficients, under the Kirchhoff approximation (KA) in electromagnetics. Starting from the KA, specific results under the geometrical optics and physical optics approximations are furnished, along with the backscattering geometry. The main aim is to provide closed-form expressions of the scattering matrix that are suited to scenarios where multiple-bounce scattering comes into play and/or surfaces with arbitrary unit normal are present. This is accomplished by addressing the following objectives: (1) to provide an explicit formulation of the scattering matrix under KA in terms of the incident and scattered unit wave vectors, (2) to provide a more generic derivation of the scattering matrix under the physical optics approximation by relaxing typical hypotheses regarding the geometry of the scattering problem, and (3) to highlight some important symmetries of the scattering matrix under KA. It is shown that the scattering matrix under KA can conveniently be expressed in terms of few variables, thus greatly reducing the complexity of the theoretical derivation of the scattering matrix. Some benefits of the proposed formalism are illustrated in two application examples, where the problem is the analysis of the electromagnetic scattering from canonical composite targets. The canonical study cases demonstrate the evaluation of the scattering matrix in complex scenarios, such as maritime and urban environments, where multiple-bounce contributions and/or contributions from tilted surfaces come into play. Finally, comparisons with literature results allow for validating the proposed derivation and assessing its validity limits in practical applications.

This paper presents an unsupervised approach to extract maritime Patterns of Life (PoL) from historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data based on a low-dimensional synthetic representation of ship routes. Recent advances in long-term vessel motion modeling through Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean-reverting stochastic processes allow to encode knowledge about maritime traffic via a compact graph-based model where waypoints are graph vertices and the connections between them, i.e., the navigational legs, are graph edges. The resulting directed graph ultimately leads to the detection and statistical characterization of recurrent maritime traffic patterns. To demonstrate its effectiveness and applicability to real-world case studies, the proposed methodology has been tested on two extensive AIS datasets, collected in the areas of two operational trials of EU-H2020’s MARISA (Maritime Integrated Surveillance Awareness) project.

A new methodology is proposed to deceive an anomalous trajectory detector by designing ship paths that deviate from the nominal traffic routes in an optimized way. The route planning is formalized as a min-max problem (with respect to surveillance system acquisition instants) focusing on the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the statistical hypotheses of the nominal and the anomalous trajectories as key performance measure. Modeling the vessel’s dynamic according to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) mean-reverting stochastic process, physical, practical, and kinematic requirements are also accounted for forcing several constraints at the design stage. A computationally efficient technique is proposed to handle the resulting non-convex optimization problem, and some case studies are reported to assess its effectiveness.

We present a novel method for predicting long-term target states based on mean-reverting stochastic processes. We use the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, leading to a revised target state equation and to a time scaling law for the related uncertainty that in the long term is shown to be orders of magnitude lower than under the nearly constant velocity (NCV) assumption. In support of the proposed model, an analysis of a significant portion of real-world maritime traffic is provided.

We present a hypothesis test to associate ship track measurements to an edge of a given graph that statistically models common traffic routes in a given area of interest. The association algorithm is based on the hypothesis that ship velocities are modeled by mean-reverting stochastic processes. Prior knowledge about the traffic is provided by the graph in form of probability density functions of the mean-reverting kinematic parameters for each node and edge of the graph, that are exploited in the formalization of the association algorithm. Tests on real Automatic Identification System (AIS) data show a qualitatively good association performance. Future developments of this work include the development of specific quantitative metrics to assess the association performance.

Recent studies have analyzed the chance of exploiting Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-Reflectometry observables for maritime surveillance and sea target detection. In this paper, we provide a feasibility study of the ship detection problem using spaceborne GNSS-R data. The analysis is performed via the evaluation of the signal-to-noise-plus-clutter-ratio and signal-to-noise-ratio relevant to an isolated ship target in open sea. In particular, we investigated the impact of the GNSS-R acquisition geometry and radar signal polarization. The influence of sea state and ship orientation is assessed as well. The analysis is based on a sound theoretical electromagnetic model of the bistatic radar cross section of the ship target. The analysis clearly shows the benefits of 1) the backscattering configuration with respect to the conventional forward-scattering one and 2) the RHCP receiving channel w.r.t. the conventional LHCP one, used in sea surface analysis. However, the ship orientation and the sea state still play a key role in ship detectability.

Covariance matrix estimation is a crucial task in adaptive signal processing applied to several surveillance systems, including radar and sonar. In this paper we propose a dynamic environment learning strategy to track both the covariance matrix and its class; the class represents a set of structured covariance matrices. We assume that the posterior distribution of the covariance given the class, is basically a mixture of inverse Wishart, while the class posterior distribution evolves according to a Markov chain. The proposed multi-class inverse Wishart mixture filter is shown to outperform the class-clairvoyant maximum likelihood estimator in terms of covariance estimate accuracy, as well as the Bayesian information criterion rule in terms of classification performance.

Inspired by the fair regularity of the motion of ships, we present a method to derive a representation of the commercial maritime traffic in the form of a graph, whose nodes represent way-point areas, or regions of likely direction changes, and whose edges represent navigational legs with constant cruise velocity. The proposed method is based on the representation of a ship's velocity with an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and on the detection of changes of its long-run mean to identify navigational way-points. In order to assess the graph representativeness of the traffic, two performance metrics are introduced, leading to distinct graph construction criteria. Finally, the proposed method is validated against real-world Automatic Identification System data collected in a large area.

In this paper, a comparative study of spaceborne Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-Reflectometry for ship detection applications is provided. The analysis is conducted by evaluating the impact of 1) the acquisition geometry and 2) the received signal polarization on ship detectability in GNSS-R data. In particular, the backscattering acquisition geometry is demonstrated to be more suitable for ship detection applications, thus allowing for the detection of 20 m-length ships. Even very large ships are hardly detectable in the conventional forward-scattering geometry. Moreover, receiving right-hand circular polarization is demonstrated to provide significant improvements of the signal-to-noise-plus-clutter with respect to the conventional left-hand circular polarization channel, conventionally exploited in GNSS-R remote sensing. The study is based on a numerical tool for the bistatic radar cross section of the ship, which is presented in a companion paper.

This paper presents a solution to the problem of sequential joint anomaly detection and tracking of a target subject to switching unknown path deviations. Based on a dynamic model described by Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) stochastic processes, the anomaly is represented by a target (e.g., a marine vessel) that deviates from a preset route by changing its nominal mean velocity. The Random Finite Set (RFS) framework is used to represent the switching nature of target's anomalous behavior in the presence of spurious measurements and detection uncertainty. Combining these two ingredients, the problem of jointly detecting target's path deviations and estimating its kinematic state can be formulated within the Bayesian framework, and analytically solved by means of a hybrid Bernoulli filter that sequentially updates the joint posterior density of the unknown OU velocity input (a Bernoulli RFS) and of the target's state random vector. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filter, implemented in Gaussian-mixture form, in a simulated scenario of vessel tracking for maritime traffic monitoring.

A novel anomaly detection procedure is presented, based on the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) mean-reverting stochastic process. The considered anomaly is a vessel that deviates from a planned route, changing its nominal velocity. In order to hide this behavior, the vessel switches off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) device for a certain time, and then tries to revert to the previous nominal velocity. The decision that has to be taken is either declaring that a deviation happened or not, relying only upon two consecutive AIS contacts. A proper statistical hypothesis testing procedure that builds on the changes in the OU process long-term velocity parameter of the vessel is the core of the proposed approach and enables for the solution of the anomaly detection problem.

In this work, we consider the problem of algorithmically predicting rendezvous among vessels based on their trajectory forecasts in a maritime environment. The problem is treated as hypothesis testing on the expected value of the distance between trajectories. We relate this quantity to the first and second degree Wasserstein distances between trajectory forecast distributions. These distributions are obtained using integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process models with the trajectory measurements collected so far. Building upon these results, we propose an algorithm which traverses the trajectories observed so far for detecting rendezvous over a rolling time horizon. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorlthm using simulations.

The chance of exploiting the Global Navigation Satellite Systems-Reflectometry (GNSS-R) remote sensing technology in the field of maritime surveillance and ship traffic monitoring has been explored in the very recent past. The conventional bistatic GNSS-R is based on the acquisition of GNSS navigation messages in a forward-scattering geometry, where the investigated region surrounds the specular reflection point. The peculiarities of the ship detection problem, where man-made dihedral structures come into play, make the conventional configuration unsuitable for such an application, especially from spaceborne platforms. Very recently, the backscattering configuration has been demonstrated to greatly enhance the presence of targets within GNSS-R delay-Doppler maps (DDM). In this paper, a thorough comparison of the forward- and back-scattering configurations for ship detection application from spaceborne GNSS-R instruments is presented in order to quantitatively evaluate the benefits of the backscattering configuration with respect to the conventional one. The analysis is performed by computing the signal-to-noise-plus-clutter ratio in both configurations as a function of the sea state, ship orientation and radar look angle.

We propose an unsupervised procedure to automatically extract a graph-based model of commercial maritime traffic routes from historical Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. In the proposed representation, the main elements of maritime traffic patterns, such as maneuvering regions and sea-lanes, are represented, respectively, with graph vertices and edges. Vessel motion dynamics are defined by multiple Ornstein- Uhlenbeck (OU) processes with different long-run mean parameters, which in our approach can be estimated with a change detection procedure based on Page's test, aimed to reveal the spatial points representative of velocity changes. A density-based clustering algorithm (DBSCAN) is then applied to aggregate the detected changes into groups of similar elements and reject outliers. To validate the proposed graph-based representation of the maritime traffic, two performance criteria are tested against a real-world trajectory data set collected off the Iberian Coast and the English Channel. Results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, which is suitable to be integrated at any level of a JDL system.

Global Navigation Satellite System-Reflectometry (GNSS-R), is succesfully employed for ocean altimetric and scatterometric applications. Recently, it has been suggested that GNSS-R can also be used for ship detection applications. To this purpose, an accurate electromagnetic modeling of the bistatic radar cross section of a ship lying over the sea surface would be very helpful. However, existing models are typically limited to monostatic configurations, thus restricting their applicability in multistatic scenarios, such as GNSS-R systems. In this work, we show a procedure to determine the bistatic radar cross section of a ship target, under the geometrical optics approximation. Numerical results show the impact of the geometry of acquisition and polarization on the bistatic radar cross section.

Ship traffic monitoring is a foundation for many maritime security domains, and monitoring system specifications underscore the necessity to track vessels beyond territorial waters. However, vessels in open seas are seldom continuously observed. Thus, the problem of long-term vessel prediction becomes crucial. This paper focuses attention on the performance assessment of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) model for long-term vessel prediction, compared with usual and well-established nearly constant velocity (NCV) model. Heterogeneous data, such as automatic identification system (AIS) data, high-frequency surface wave radar data, and synthetic aperture radar data, are exploited to this aim. Two different association procedures are also presented to cue dwells in case of gaps in the transmission of AIS messages. Suitable metrics have been introduced for the assessment. Considerable advantages of the OU model are pointed out with respect to the NCV model.

We describe how we leveraged best practices in big data processing pipeline design and visual analytics to prototype the Maritime Patterns-of-Life Information Service (MPoLIS), an information product currently under development at the NATO Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation (CMRE). MPoLIS supports the maritime industry, governments, and international organizations with visual analytics on vessel traffic in seaports. It addresses three main requirements: a) storing and processing large amounts of data; b) on-demand availability of statistical summaries of vessel traffic in ports; c) intuitive and interactive interface for subject matter experts (SMEs) in the maritime domain. MPoLIS has contributed to building a data-driven, self-service analytics culture within NATO and has been sanctioned for use in support of maritime situational awareness (MSA) in ongoing NATO operations.

Seaports play a vital role in the global economy, as they operate as the connection corridors to all other modes of transport and as engines of growth for the wider region. But ports today are faced with numerous unique challenges and for them to remain competitive, significant investments are required. In support of greater transparency in policy making, decisions regarding investment need to be supported by data-driven intelligence. It is often an overlooked fact that seaports do not remain static over time; such spatial units often evolve according to environmental patterns both in size but also connectivity and operational capacity. As such any valid decision making regarding port investment and policy making, essentially needs to take into account port evolution over time and space. In this work, we leverage the huge amounts of vessel data that are progressively becoming available through the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and distributed machine learning to define a seaport's extended area of operation. Specifically, we present our adaptation of the well-known KDE algorithm to the map-reduce paradigm, and report results on the port of Shanghai.

Seaports are spatial units that do not remain static over time. They are constantly in flux, evolving according to environmental and connectivity patterns both in size and operational capacity. As such any valid decision making regarding port investment and policy making, essentially needs to take into account port evolution over time and space, thus, accurately defining a seaport's exact location, operational boundaries, capacity, connectivity indicators, environmental impact and overall throughput. In this work, we apply a data driven approach to defining a seaport's extended area of operation based on data collected though the Automatic Identification System (AIS). Specifically, we present our adaptation of the well-known KDE algorithm to the MapReduce paradigm, and report results on the port of Rotterdam.