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Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic there was a plethora of dynamical forecasting models created, but their ability to effectively describe future trajectories of disease was mixed. A major challenge in evaluating future case trends was forecasting the behavior of individuals. When behavior was incorporated into models, it was primarily incorporated exogenously (e.g., fitting to cellphone mobility data). Fewer models incorporated behavior endogenously (e.g., dynamically changing a model parameter throughout the simulation). Methods: This review aimed to qualitatively characterize models that included an adaptive (endogenous) behavioral element in the context of COVID-19 transmission. We categorized studies into three approaches: 1) feedback loops, 2) game theory/utility theory, and 3) information/opinion spread. Findings: Of the 92 included studies, 72% employed a feedback loop, 27% used game/utility theory, and 9% used a model if information/opinion spread. Among all studies, 89% used a compartmental model alone or in combination with other model types. Similarly, 15% used a network model, 11% used an agent-based model, 7% used a system dynamics model, and 1% used a Markov chain model. Descriptors of behavior change included mask-wearing, social distancing, vaccination, and others. Sixty-eight percent of studies calibrated their model to observed data and 25% compared simulated forecasts to observed data. Forty-one percent of studies compared versions of their model with and without endogenous behavior. Models with endogenous behavior tended to show a smaller and delayed initial peak with subsequent periodic waves. Interpretation: While many COVID-19 models incorporated behavior exogenously, these approaches may fail to capture future adaptations in human behavior, resulting in under- or overestimates of disease burden. By incorporating behavior endogenously, the next generation of infectious disease models could more effectively predict outcomes so that decision makers can better prepare for and respond to epidemics. Funding: This study was funded in-part by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) MInD-Healthcare Program (1U01CK000536), the National Science Foundation (NSF) Modeling Dynamic Disease-Behavior Feedbacks for Improved Epidemic Prediction and Response grant (2229996), and the NSF PIPP Phase I: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Messaging and Modeling during Pandemics grant (2200256).

Abstract Background Adolescents are navigating a period of rapid growth and development within an era of digitalization. Mobile phone ownership among adolescents is nearly ubiquitous, and this provides an opportunity to harness text messaging to promote a healthy lifestyle and reduce chronic disease risk factors. Inclusion of adolescents throughout the design process has been recognized as essential for engagement and future implementation of such interventions. This study aimed to co-design a bank of text messages to promote a healthy lifestyle which are useful, acceptable, and engaging for adolescents aged 12–18 years old. Methods Iterative, mixed-methods design with consumer partnership. Co-design occurred over three stages: text message development, text message review and final refinement and testing. The text message development included literature searches and consumer partnership with an established youth advisory group (n = 16). Participants who gave e-consent participated in text message review. Demographic characteristics were collected, and quantitative surveys were distributed to adolescents (n = up to 50) and health professionals (n = up to 30), who rated text message content for understanding, usefulness and appropriateness (total score out of 15). Final refinement was completed by the research team to edit or remove messages which had low scores and to assess readability and interactivity of the text messages. Results The Heath Advisory Panel for Youth at the University of Sydney (HAPYUS) identified the top six lifestyle health issues for young people today in relation to chronic disease prevention, which became the key content areas for the text message bank and drafted new text messages. Following text message development, 218 messages were available for review. Adolescents (n = 18, mean age 16.3 [SD 1.4]) and healthcare professionals (n = 16) reviewed the text messages. On average, all reviewers found that the text messages were easy to understand (mean = 13.4/15) and useful (mean = 12.7/15). Based on scoring and open ended-feedback, 91 text messages were edited and 42 deleted. The final text message bank included 131 text messages. The overall program is suitable for a seventh-grade reading level, and interactive. Conclusions This study describes the process of effectively engaging adolescents to co-design a text message bank intervention, which are useful, acceptable and engaging for an adolescent audience. The effectiveness of the co-designed text message bank is currently being tested in the Health4Me RCT.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Abstract Identifying the critical factors related to influenza spreading is crucial in predicting and mitigating epidemics. Specifically, uncovering the relationship between epidemic onset and various risk indicators such as socioeconomic, mobility and climate factors can reveal locations and travel patterns that play critical roles in furthering an outbreak. We study the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza outbreaks in Sweden’s municipalities between 2009 and 2015 and use the Generalized Inverse Infection Method (GIIM) to assess the most significant contributing risk factors. GIIM represents an epidemic spreading process on a network: nodes correspond to geographical objects, links indicate travel routes, and transmission probabilities assigned to the links guide the infection process. Our results reinforce existing observations that the influenza outbreaks considered in this study were driven by the country’s largest population centers, while meteorological factors also contributed significantly. Travel and other socioeconomic indicators have a negligible effect. We also demonstrate that by training our model on the 2009 outbreak, we can predict the epidemic onsets in the following five seasons with high accuracy.

Modeling the spread of infections in networks is a well-studied and important field of research. Most infection and diffusion models require a real value or probability at the edges of the network as an input, but this is rarely available in real-life applications. The Generalized Inverse Infection Model (GIIM) has previously been used in real-world applications to solve this problem. However, these applications were limited to the specifics of the corresponding case studies, and the theoretical properties, as well as the wider applicability of the model, are yet to be investigated. Here, we show that the general model works with the most widely used infection models and is able to handle an arbitrary number of observations on such processes. We evaluate the accuracy and speed of the GIIM on a large variety of realistic infection scenarios.

Abstract Background More than 80,000 dengue cases including 215 deaths were reported nationally in less than 7 months between 2016 and 2017, a fourfold increase in the number of reported cases compared to the average number over 2010–2016. The region of Negombo, located in the Western province, experienced the greatest number of dengue cases in the country and is the focus area of our study, where we aim to capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of dengue transmission. Methods We present a statistical modeling framework to evaluate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the 2016–2017 dengue outbreak in the Negombo region of Sri Lanka as a function of human mobility, land-use, and climate patterns. The analysis was conducted at a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution and a weekly temporal resolution. Results Our results indicate human mobility to be a stronger indicator for local outbreak clusters than land-use or climate variables. The minimum daily temperature was identified as the most influential climate variable on dengue cases in the region; while among the set of land-use patterns considered, urban areas were found to be most prone to dengue outbreak, followed by areas with stagnant water and then coastal areas. The results are shown to be robust across spatial resolutions. Conclusions Our study highlights the potential value of using travel data to target vector control within a region. In addition to illustrating the relative relationship between various potential risk factors for dengue outbreaks, the results of our study can be used to inform where and when new cases of dengue are likely to occur within a region, and thus help more effectively and innovatively, plan for disease surveillance and vector control.

Abstract Background Six core behavioural risk factors (poor diet, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, alcohol misuse, smoking and unhealthy sleep patterns) have been identified as strong determinants of chronic disease, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers. Smartphones have the potential to provide a real-time, pervasive, unobtrusive and cost-effective way to measure health behaviours and deliver instant feedback to users. Despite this, validity of using smartphones to measure these six key behaviours is largely unknown. The proposed systematic review aims to address this gap by identifying existing smartphone-based approaches to measure these health behaviours and critically appraising, comparing and summarizing the quality of their measurement properties. Methods A systematic search of the Ovid MEDLINE, Embase (Elsevier), Cochrane Library (Wiley), PsychINFO (EBSCOhost), CINAHL (EBSCOHost), Web of Science (Clarivate), SPORTDiscus (EBSCOhost) and IEEE Xplore Digital Library databases will be conducted from January 2007 to March 2020. Eligible studies will be those written in English that measure at least one of the six health behaviours of interest via a smartphone and report on at least one measurement property. The primary outcomes will be validity, reliability and/or responsiveness of these measurement approaches. A secondary outcome will be the feasibility (e.g. user burden, usability and cost) of identified approaches. No restrictions will be placed on the participant population or study design. Two reviewers will independently screen studies for eligibility, extract data and assess the risk of bias. The study methodological quality (or bias) will be appraised using an appropriate tool. Our results will be described in a narrative synthesis. If feasible, random effects meta-analysis will be conducted where appropriate. Discussion The results from this review will provide important information about the types of smartphone-based approaches currently available to measure the core behavioural risk factors for chronic disease and the quality of their measurement properties. It will allow recommendations on the most suitable and effective measures of these lifestyle behaviours using smartphones. Valid and reliable measurement of these behaviours and risk factor opens the door to targeted and real-time delivery of health behaviour interventions, providing unprecedented opportunities to offset the trajectory toward chronic disease. Systematic review registration PROSPERO: CRD42019122242

Predicting and controlling traffic congestion propagation is an ongoing challenge in most urban settings. Here, Seberi et al. apply a contagion model describing epidemic spread in population to model traffic jams, and verify its validity using large-scale data from six different cities around the world.

The diagnostic criteria for autism spectrum disorder in the DSM-5-TR features the option to designate levels of support for social communication (SC) and restricted, repetitive behaviors (RRB). These levels are conceptual in nature, but research indicates standardized assessment outcomes correspond with clinician-assigned levels of support. The purpose of the present study was to identify factors that influence designated levels of support for SC and RRBs when diagnosing autism. Standardized assessment scores across intellectual functioning, adaptive skills, and ASD symptomology were analyzed to determine corresponding levels of support in SC and RRBs assigned by clinicians for 136 autistic children following a comprehensive diagnostic evaluation. At diagnosis, approximately 46% of participants were described as needing substantial support (Level 2) for SC and 49% were described as needing substantial support (Level 2) for RRB. There was a consistent pattern of higher to lower intellectual and adaptive functioning needing Level 1-Level 3 support. Autism assessment results followed a gradient of fewer to greater autism symptoms from Level 1 to Level 3 support. Findings indicated clinician-assigned levels of support for SC and RRB were associated with intellectual functioning, adaptive functioning, autism symptomology, and age, but not sex.

With approximately half of the world's population at risk of contracting dengue, this mosquito-borne disease is of global concern. International travellers significantly contribute to dengue's rapid and large-scale spread by importing the disease from endemic into non-endemic countries. To prevent future outbreaks and dengue from establishing in non-endemic countries, knowledge about the arrival time and location of infected travellers is crucial. We propose a network model that predicts the monthly number of dengue-infected air passengers arriving at any given airport. We consider international air travel volumes to construct weighted networks, representing passenger flows between airports. We further calculate the probability of passengers, who travel through the international air transport network, being infected with dengue. The probability of being infected depends on the destination, duration and timing of travel. Our findings shed light onto dengue importation routes and reveal country-specific reporting rates that have been until now largely unknown. This paper provides important new knowledge about the spreading dynamics of dengue that is highly beneficial for public health authorities to strategically allocate the often limited resources to more efficiently prevent the spread of dengue.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0072129.].

BACKGROUND:The 2015-16 Zika virus pandemic originating in Latin America led to predictions of a catastrophic global spread of the disease. Since the current outbreak began in Brazil in May 2015 local transmission of Zika has been reported in over 60 countries and territories, with over 750 thousand confirmed and suspected cases. As a result of its range expansion attention has focused on possible modes of transmission, of which the arthropod vector-based disease spread cycle involving Aedes species is believed to be the most important. Additional causes of concern are the emerging new links between Zika disease and Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS), and a once rare congenital disease, microcephaly. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Like dengue and chikungunya, the geographic establishment of Zika is thought to be limited by the occurrence of its principal vector mosquito species, Ae. aegypti and, possibly, Ae. albopictus. While Ae. albopictus populations are more widely established than those of Ae. aegypti, the relative competence of these species as a Zika vector is unknown. The analysis reported here presents a global risk model that considers the role of each vector species independently, and quantifies the potential spreading risk of Zika into new regions. Six scenarios are evaluated which vary in the weight assigned to Ae. albopictus as a possible spreading vector. The scenarios are bounded by the extreme assumptions that spread is driven by air travel and Ae. aegypti presence alone and spread driven equally by both species. For each scenario destination cities at highest risk of Zika outbreaks are prioritized, as are source cities in affected regions. Finally, intercontinental air travel routes that pose the highest risk for Zika spread are also ranked. The results are compared between scenarios. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Results from the analysis reveal that if Ae. aegypti is the only competent Zika vector, then risk is geographically limited; in North America mainly to Florida and Texas. However, if Ae. albopictus proves to be a competent vector of Zika, which does not yet appear to be the case, then there is risk of local establishment in all American regions including Canada and Chile, much of Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, as well as South and East Asia, with a substantial increase in risk to Asia due to the more recent local establishment of Zika in Singapore.

BACKGROUND:Zoonotic avian influenza poses a major risk to China, and other parts of the world. H5N1 has remained endemic in China and globally for nearly two decades, and in 2013, a novel zoonotic influenza A subtype H7N9 emerged in China. This study aimed to improve upon our current understanding of the spreading mechanisms of H7N9 and H5N1 by generating spatial risk profiles for each of the two virus subtypes across mainland China. METHODS AND FINDINGS:In this study, we (i) developed a refined data set of H5N1 and H7N9 locations with consideration of animal/animal environment case data, as well as spatial accuracy and precision; (ii) used this data set along with environmental variables to build species distribution models (SDMs) for each virus subtype in high resolution spatial units of 1km2 cells using Maxent; (iii) developed a risk modelling framework which integrated the results from the SDMs with human and chicken population variables, which was done to quantify the risk of zoonotic transmission; and (iv) identified areas at high risk of H5N1 and H7N9 transmission. We produced high performing SDMs (6 of 8 models with AUC > 0.9) for both H5N1 and H7N9. In all our SDMs, H7N9 consistently showed higher AUC results compared to H5N1, suggesting H7N9 suitability could be better explained by environmental variables. For both subtypes, high risk areas were primarily located in south-eastern China, with H5N1 distributions found to be more diffuse and extending more inland compared to H7N9. CONCLUSIONS:We provide projections of our risk models to public health policy makers so that specific high risk areas can be targeted for control measures. We recommend comparing H5N1 and H7N9 prevalence rates and survivability in the natural environment to better understand the role of animal and environmental transmission in human infections.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0174980.].

The number of travel-acquired dengue infections has seen a consistent global rise over the past decade. An increased volume of international passenger air traffic originating from regions with endemic dengue has contributed to a rise in the number of dengue cases in both areas of endemicity and elsewhere. This paper reports results from a network-based risk assessment model which uses international passenger travel volumes, travel routes, travel distances, regional populations, and predictive species distribution models (for the two vector species, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus) to quantify the relative risk posed by each airport in importing passengers with travel-acquired dengue infections. Two risk attributes are evaluated: (i) the risk posed by through traffic at each stopover airport and (ii) the risk posed by incoming travelers to each destination airport. The model results prioritize optimal locations (i.e., airports) for targeted dengue surveillance. The model is easily extendible to other vector-borne diseases.