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1. Index

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

2. Contents

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

3. Foreword

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

4. 7 | Resilience and the Indiana Way: Hoosiers Respond to Environmental Change

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

5. 11 | Building Resilience to the Energy Transition in Indiana

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

6. 12 | Conclusion: Moving Forward toward Resilience

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

7. 2 | Climate and Water Systems

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

8. 6 | Built Environments and Green Infrastructure: Growing Long-Lasting Urban Resilience

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

9. 10 | Equitability, Health, and Resilience in the Face of Climate Change

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

10. 9 | Tools and Leadership for Community Resilience

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

11. 8 | Communicating Resilience: Challenges and Examples

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

12. 5 | Hoosier Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Our Food and Farming System's History, Contemporary Challenges, and Opportunities to Sow Resilience

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

13. 1 | Introduction: Resilience and Climate Change in Indiana

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

14. 3 | Indiana Forest Resilience Is a Matter of Scale and Perspective

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

15. Land Acknowledgment

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

16. 4 | Biodiversity and Species Movements: Nurturing and Managing Biodiversity in Indiana

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

17. Title Page, Copyright

Author

Chenyang, Lingxi, Sanders Allen, Eva, Carley, Sanya, Zirogiannis, Nikolaos, Konisky, David M., Webster, Andrea, Geiger, Nathan, Edwards, Beth, Sandweiss, Eric, Myers, Daniel, Wilson, Jeffrey S., Habeeb, Dana, Hamlin, Samantha L., Reynolds, Heather L., Grennan Browning, Elizabeth, Farmer, James Robert, Wanamaker, Sarah, Lau, Jennifer Ann, Jahn, Alex, Houser, Matthew, Fudickar, Adam, Clay, Keith, Byrd, Allison, Brown, Geoffrey, Becker, Daniel, Ketterson, Ellen D., Phillips, Richard, Maxwell, Justin, Baeten, John, Lave, Rebecca, Mincey, Sarah, Zhu, Chen, Yanites, Brian, Staten, Paul, Robeson, Scott, O'Brien, Travis A., Kieu, Chanh, Edmonds, Douglas, Kravitz, Ben, Shanahan, James, Novick, Kimberly A., Filippelli, Gabriel M., McCabe, Janet G., Widhalm, Melissa, and Dukes, Jeffrey S.

Published
2022

18. Kicking the Can Down the Road: Understanding the Effects of Delaying the Deployment of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection

Author

Brody, Ezra, Visioni, Daniele, Bednarz, Ewa M., Kravitz, Ben, MacMartin, Douglas G., Richter, Jadwiga H., and Tye, Mari R.

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Physics - Geophysics
Abstract

Climate change is a prevalent threat, and it is unlikely that current mitigation efforts will be enough to avoid unwanted impacts. One potential option to reduce climate change impacts is the use of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Even if SAI is ultimately deployed, it might be initiated only after some temperature target is exceeded. The consequences of such a delay are assessed herein. This study compares two cases, with the same target global mean temperature of 1.5C above preindustrial, but start dates of 2035 or a delayed start in 2045. We make use of simulations in the Community Earth System Model version 2 with the Whole Atmosphere Coupled Chemistry Model version 6 (CESM2-WACCM6), using SAI under the SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. We find that delaying the start of deployment (relative to the target temperature) necessitates lower net radiative forcing (-30%) and thus larger sulfur dioxide injection rates (+20%), even after surface temperatures converge, to compensate for the extra energy absorbed by the Earth system. However, many of the surface climate differences between the 2035 and 2045 start simulations appear to be small during the 10-25 years following the delayed SAI start, although longer simulations would be needed to assess any longer-term impacts in this model. In addition, irreversibilities and tipping points that might be triggered during the period of increased warming may not be adequately represented in the model but could change this conclusion in the real world.

Published
2024

19. The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends.

Author

Ma, Weiming, Wang, Hailong, Leung, L, Lu, Jian, Rasch, Philip, Fu, Qiang, Kravitz, Ben, Zou, Yufei, Cassano, John, Maslowski, Wieslaw, and Chen, Gang

Abstract

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic.

Published
2024

20. DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Earth System Models with Diffusion Models

Author

Bassetti, Seth, Hutchinson, Brian, Tebaldi, Claudia, and Kravitz, Ben

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Neural and Evolutionary Computing, Physics - Geophysics
Abstract

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have significant socioeconomic and environmental consequences. However, the computational demands of running a sufficient number of simulations to analyze the risks are often prohibitive. In this paper we demonstrate that diffusion models -- a class of generative deep learning models -- can effectively emulate the spatio-temporal trends of ESMs under previously unseen climate scenarios, while only requiring a small fraction of the computational resources. We present a diffusion model that is conditioned on monthly averages of temperature or precipitation on a $96 \times 96$ global grid, and produces daily values that are both realistic and consistent with those averages. Our results show that the output from our diffusion model closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM it emulates in terms of the frequency of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity., Comment: Presented at Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning, ICLR 2023

Published
2023

21. Conducting more inclusive solar geoengineering research: A feminist science framework

Author

Kravitz, Ben and Sikka, Tina

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society, Physics - History and Philosophy of Physics
Abstract

Solar geoengineering, or deliberate climate modification, has been receiving increased attention in recent years. Given the far-reaching consequences of any potential solar geoengineering deployments, it is prudent to identify inherent biases, blind spots, and other potential issues at all stages of the research process. Here we articulate a feminist science-based framework to concretely describe how solar geoengineering researchers can be more inclusive of different perspectives, in the process illuminating potential implicit bias and enhancing the conclusions that can be gained from their studies. Importantly, this framework is an adoptable method of practice that can be refined, with the aim of conducting better research in solar geoengineering. As an illustration, we retrospectively apply this framework to a well-read solar geoengineering study, improving transparency by revealing its implicit values, conclusions made from its evidence base, and the methodologies that study pursues. We conclude with a set of recommendations for the geoengineering research community whereby more inclusive research can become a regular part of practice. Throughout this process, we illustrate how feminist science scholars can use this approach to study climate modeling.

Published
2021

22. Loosely Conditioned Emulation of Global Climate Models With Generative Adversarial Networks

Author

Ayala, Alexis, Drazic, Christopher, Hutchinson, Brian, Kravitz, Ben, and Tebaldi, Claudia

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Neural and Evolutionary Computing, Physics - Geophysics
Abstract

Climate models encapsulate our best understanding of the Earth system, allowing research to be conducted on its future under alternative assumptions of how human-driven climate forces are going to evolve. An important application of climate models is to provide metrics of mean and extreme climate changes, particularly under these alternative future scenarios, as these quantities drive the impacts of climate on society and natural systems. Because of the need to explore a wide range of alternative scenarios and other sources of uncertainties in a computationally efficient manner, climate models can only take us so far, as they require significant computational resources, especially when attempting to characterize extreme events, which are rare and thus demand long and numerous simulations in order to accurately represent their changing statistics. Here we use deep learning in a proof of concept that lays the foundation for emulating global climate model output for different scenarios. We train two "loosely conditioned" Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that emulate daily precipitation output from a fully coupled Earth system model: one GAN modeling Fall-Winter behavior and the other Spring-Summer. Our GANs are trained to produce spatiotemporal samples: 32 days of precipitation over a 64x128 regular grid discretizing the globe. We evaluate the generator with a set of related performance metrics based upon KL divergence, and find the generated samples to be nearly as well matched to the test data as the validation data is to test. We also find the generated samples to accurately estimate the mean number of dry days and mean longest dry spell in the 32 day samples. Our trained GANs can rapidly generate numerous realizations at a vastly reduced computational expense, compared to large ensembles of climate models, which greatly aids in estimating the statistics of extreme events., Comment: Presented at NeurIPS 2020 Workshop Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

Published
2021

23. DeepClimGAN: A High-Resolution Climate Data Generator

Author

Puchko, Alexandra, Link, Robert, Hutchinson, Brian, Kravitz, Ben, and Snyder, Abigail

Subjects
Computer Science - Neural and Evolutionary Computing
Abstract

Earth system models (ESMs), which simulate the physics and chemistry of the global atmosphere, land, and ocean, are often used to generate future projections of climate change scenarios. These models are far too computationally intensive to run repeatedly, but limited sets of runs are insufficient for some important applications, like adequately sampling distribution tails to characterize extreme events. As a compromise, emulators are substantially less expensive but may not have all of the complexity of an ESM. Here we demonstrate the use of a conditional generative adversarial network (GAN) to act as an ESM emulator. In doing so, we gain the ability to produce daily weather data that is consistent with what ESM might output over any chosen scenario. In particular, the GAN is aimed at representing a joint probability distribution over space, time, and climate variables, enabling the study of correlated extreme events, such as floods, droughts, or heatwaves., Comment: Presented at NeurIPS 2019 Workshop Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

Published
2020

24. Detecting climate teleconnections with Granger causality

Author

Silva, Filipi N, Vega-Oliveros, Didier A., Yan, Xiaoran, Flammini, Alessandro, Menczer, Filippo, Radicchi, Filippo, Kravitz, Ben, and Fortunato, Santo

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Physics - Physics and Society
Abstract

Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method leveraging Granger causality, which can infer/detect relationships between any two fields. We compare teleconnections identified by correlation and Granger causality at different timescales. We find that both Granger causality and correlation consistently recover known seasonal precipitation responses to the sea surface temperature pattern associated with the El Ni\~{n}o Southern Oscillation. Such findings are robust across multiple time resolutions. In addition, we identify candidates for unexplored teleconnection responses., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, code can be found in https://github.com/filipinascimento/teleconnectionsgranger

Published
2020
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26. CLIMATE AND WATER SYSTEMS

Author

Kravitz, Ben, primary, Edmonds, Douglas, additional, Filippelli, Gabriel M., additional, Kieu, Chanh, additional, O’Brien, Travis A., additional, Robeson, Scott, additional, Staten, Paul, additional, Yanites, Brian, additional, and Zhu, Chen, additional

Published
2022
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36. Muddling through Climate Change: A Qualitative Exploration of India and U.S. Climate Experts' Perspectives on Solutions, Pathways, and Barriers.

Author

Yoder, Landon, Cain, Alora, Rao, Ananya, Geiger, Nathaniel, Kravitz, Ben, Mercer, Mack, Miniard, Deidra, Nepal, Sangeet, Nunn, Thomas, Sluder, Mary, Weiler, Grace, and Attari, Shahzeen Z.

Abstract

Climate solutions related to mitigation and adaptation vary across the United States and India, given their unique current socio-political–technological abilities and their histories. Here, we discuss results from online face-to-face interviews undertaken with 33 U.S.-based climate experts and 30 India-based climate experts. Using qualitative grounded theory, we explore open-ended responses to questions related to mitigation and adaptation and find the following: (1) there is broad agreement among experts in both countries on the main mitigation solutions focused on the decarbonization of energy systems, but (2) there are a diversity of views between experts on what to prioritize and how to achieve it. Similarly, there is substantial agreement that adaptation solutions are needed to address agriculture, water management, and infrastructure, but there is a wide variety of perspectives on other priorities and how best to proceed. Experts across both countries generally perceived mitigation as needing national policies to succeed, while adaptation is perceived as more local and challenging given the larger number of stakeholders involved in planning and implementation. Our findings indicate that experts agree on the goals of decarbonization, but there was no consensus on how best to accomplish implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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37. Contributors

Author

Allan, James, primary, Bellouin, Nicolas, additional, Bollasina, Massimo A., additional, Bond, Tami C., additional, Carn, Simon, additional, Carslaw, Ken S., additional, Collins, William, additional, Ekman, Annica M.L., additional, Fan, Jiwen, additional, Gryspeerdt, Edward, additional, Kahn, Ralph, additional, Klimont, Zbigniew, additional, Korhonen, Hannele, additional, Kravitz, Ben, additional, Li, Zhanqing, additional, Liu, Xiaohong, additional, Mahowald, Natalie, additional, McConnell, Joseph R., additional, Murray, Benjamin J., additional, Pringle, Kirsty, additional, Quaas, Johannes, additional, Rasch, Philip J., additional, Samset, Bjørn Hallvard, additional, Schmale, Julia, additional, Schmidt, Anja, additional, Schulz, Michael, additional, Scott, Catherine E., additional, Watson-Parris, Duncan, additional, Wilcox, Laura J., additional, and Yu, Hongbin, additional

Published
2022
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44. G6-1.5K-SAI: a new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment integrating recent advances in solar radiation modification studies.

Author

Visioni, Daniele, Robock, Alan, Haywood, Jim, Henry, Matthew, Tilmes, Simone, MacMartin, Douglas G., Kravitz, Ben, Doherty, Sarah J., Moore, John, Lennard, Chris, Watanabe, Shingo, Muri, Helene, Niemeier, Ulrike, Boucher, Olivier, Syed, Abu, Egbebiyi, Temitope S., Séférian, Roland, and Quaglia, Ilaria

Subjects
ENVIRONMENTAL engineering, STRATOSPHERIC aerosols, BASELINE emissions, ATMOSPHERIC models
Abstract

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has proposed multiple model experiments during phases 5 and 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), with the latest set of model experiments proposed in 2015. With phase 7 of CMIP in preparation and with multiple efforts ongoing to better explore the potential space of outcomes for different solar radiation modifications (SRMs) both in terms of deployment strategies and scenarios and in terms of potential impacts, the GeoMIP community has identified the need to propose and conduct a new experiment that could serve as a bridge between past iterations and future CMIP7 experiments. Here we report the details of such a proposed experiment, named G6-1.5K-SAI, to be conducted with the current generation of scenarios and models from CMIP6 and clarify the reasoning behind many of the new choices introduced. Namely, compared to the CMIP6 GeoMIP scenario G6sulfur, we decided on (1) an intermediate emission scenario as a baseline (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5), (2) a start date set in the future that includes both considerations for the likelihood of exceeding 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and some considerations for a likely start date for an SRM implementation, and (3) a deployment strategy for stratospheric aerosol injection that does not inject in the tropical pipe in order to obtain a more latitudinally uniform aerosol distribution. We also offer more details regarding the preferred experiment length and number of ensemble members and include potential options for second-tier experiments that some modeling groups might want to run. The specifics of the proposed experiment will further allow for a more direct comparison between results obtained from CMIP6 models and those obtained from future scenarios for CMIP7. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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48. CESM1(WACCM) STRATOSPHERIC AEROSOL GEOENGINEERING LARGE ENSEMBLE PROJECT

Author

Tilmes, Simone, Richter, Jadwiga H., Kravitz, Ben, MacMartin, Douglas G., Mills, Michael J., Simpson, Isla R., Glanville, Anne S., Fasullo, John T., Phillips, Adam S., Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Tribbia, Joseph, Edwards, Jim, Mickelson, Sheri, and Ghosh, Siddhartha

Published
2018

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