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The language used by US courtroom actors in criminal trials has long been studied for biases. However, systematic studies for bias in high-stakes court trials have been difficult, due to the nuanced nature of bias and the legal expertise required. Large language models offer the possibility to automate annotation. But validating the computational approach requires both an understanding of how automated methods fit in existing annotation workflows and what they really offer. We present a case study of adding a computational model to a complex and high-stakes problem: identifying gender-biased language in US capital trials for women defendants. Our team of experienced death-penalty lawyers and NLP technologists pursue a three-phase study: first annotating manually, then training and evaluating computational models, and finally comparing expert annotations to model predictions. Unlike many typical NLP tasks, annotating for gender bias in months-long capital trials is complicated, with many individual judgment calls. Contrary to standard arguments for automation that are based on efficiency and scalability, legal experts find the computational models most useful in providing opportunities to reflect on their own bias in annotation and to build consensus on annotation rules. This experience suggests that seeking to replace experts with computational models for complex annotation is both unrealistic and undesirable. Rather, computational models offer valuable opportunities to assist the legal experts in annotation-based studies.

Speech-to-text services aim to transcribe input audio as accurately as possible. They increasingly play a role in everyday life, for example in personal voice assistants or in customer-company interactions. We evaluate Open AI's Whisper, a state-of-the-art automated speech recognition service outperforming industry competitors, as of 2023. While many of Whisper's transcriptions were highly accurate, we find that roughly 1\% of audio transcriptions contained entire hallucinated phrases or sentences which did not exist in any form in the underlying audio. We thematically analyze the Whisper-hallucinated content, finding that 38\% of hallucinations include explicit harms such as perpetuating violence, making up inaccurate associations, or implying false authority. We then study why hallucinations occur by observing the disparities in hallucination rates between speakers with aphasia (who have a lowered ability to express themselves using speech and voice) and a control group. We find that hallucinations disproportionately occur for individuals who speak with longer shares of non-vocal durations -- a common symptom of aphasia. We call on industry practitioners to ameliorate these language-model-based hallucinations in Whisper, and to raise awareness of potential biases amplified by hallucinations in downstream applications of speech-to-text models.

Randomized experiments often need to be stopped prematurely due to the treatment having an unintended harmful effect. Existing methods that determine when to stop an experiment early are typically applied to the data in aggregate and do not account for treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we study the early stopping of experiments for harm on heterogeneous populations. We first establish that current methods often fail to stop experiments when the treatment harms a minority group of participants. We then use causal machine learning to develop CLASH, the first broadly-applicable method for heterogeneous early stopping. We demonstrate CLASH's performance on simulated and real data and show that it yields effective early stopping for both clinical trials and A/B tests., Comment: NeurIPS 2023 (spotlight)

Recommendation systems increasingly depend on massive human-labeled datasets; however, the human annotators hired to generate these labels increasingly come from homogeneous backgrounds. This poses an issue when downstream predictive models -- based on these labels -- are applied globally to a heterogeneous set of users. We study this disconnect with respect to the labels themselves, asking whether they are ``consistently conceptualized'' across annotators of different demographics. In a case study of video game labels, we conduct a survey on 5,174 gamers, identify a subset of inconsistently conceptualized game labels, perform causal analyses, and suggest both cultural and linguistic reasons for cross-country differences in label annotation. We further demonstrate that predictive models of game annotations perform better on global train sets as opposed to homogeneous (single-country) train sets. Finally, we provide a generalizable framework for practitioners to audit their own data annotation processes for consistent label conceptualization, and encourage practitioners to consider global inclusivity in recommendation systems starting from the early stages of annotator recruitment and data-labeling., Comment: Accepted at FAccT 2023

Speech datasets are crucial for training Speech Language Technologies (SLT); however, the lack of diversity of the underlying training data can lead to serious limitations in building equitable and robust SLT products, especially along dimensions of language, accent, dialect, variety, and speech impairment - and the intersectionality of speech features with socioeconomic and demographic features. Furthermore, there is often a lack of oversight on the underlying training data - commonly built on massive web-crawling and/or publicly available speech - with regard to the ethics of such data collection. To encourage standardized documentation of such speech data components, we introduce an augmented datasheet for speech datasets, which can be used in addition to "Datasheets for Datasets". We then exemplify the importance of each question in our augmented datasheet based on in-depth literature reviews of speech data used in domains such as machine learning, linguistics, and health. Finally, we encourage practitioners - ranging from dataset creators to researchers - to use our augmented datasheet to better define the scope, properties, and limits of speech datasets, while also encouraging consideration of data-subject protection and user community empowerment. Ethical dataset creation is not a one-size-fits-all process, but dataset creators can use our augmented datasheet to reflexively consider the social context of related SLT applications and data sources in order to foster more inclusive SLT products downstream., Comment: To appear in 2023 ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (FAccT '23), June 12-15, Chicago, IL, USA

Algorithmically optimizing the provision of limited resources is commonplace across domains from healthcare to lending. Optimization can lead to efficient resource allocation, but, if deployed without additional scrutiny, can also exacerbate inequality. Little is known about popular preferences regarding acceptable efficiency-equity trade-offs, making it difficult to design algorithms that are responsive to community needs and desires. Here we examine this trade-off and concomitant preferences in the context of GetCalFresh, an online service that streamlines the application process for California's Supplementary Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as food stamps). GetCalFresh runs online advertisements to raise awareness of their multilingual SNAP application service. We first demonstrate that when ads are optimized to garner the most enrollments per dollar, a disproportionately small number of Spanish speakers enroll due to relatively higher costs of non-English language advertising. Embedding these results in a survey (N = 1,532) of a diverse set of Americans, we find broad popular support for valuing equity in addition to efficiency: respondents generally preferred reducing total enrollments to facilitate increased enrollment of Spanish speakers. These results buttress recent calls to reevaluate the efficiency-centric paradigm popular in algorithmic resource allocation., Comment: This paper will be presented at the 2023 International Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM'23)

Neighborhood-level screening algorithms are increasingly being deployed to inform policy decisions. We evaluate one such algorithm, CalEnviroScreen - designed to promote environmental justice and used to guide hundreds of millions of dollars in public funding annually - assessing its potential for allocative harm. We observe the model to be sensitive to subjective model decisions, with 16% of tracts potentially changing designation, as well as financially consequential, estimating the effect of its positive designations as a 104% (62-145%) increase in funding, equivalent to \$2.08 billion (\$1.56-2.41 billion) over four years. We also observe allocative tradeoffs and susceptibility to manipulation, raising ethical concerns. We recommend incorporating sensitivity analyses to mitigate allocative harm and accountability mechanisms to prevent misuse.

Algorithms provide powerful tools for detecting and dissecting human bias and error. Here, we develop machine learning methods to to analyze how humans err in a particular high-stakes task: image interpretation. We leverage a unique dataset of 16,135,392 human predictions of whether a neighborhood voted for Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the 2020 US election, based on a Google Street View image. We show that by training a machine learning estimator of the Bayes optimal decision for each image, we can provide an actionable decomposition of human error into bias, variance, and noise terms, and further identify specific features (like pickup trucks) which lead humans astray. Our methods can be applied to ensure that human-in-the-loop decision-making is accurate and fair and are also applicable to black-box algorithmic systems., Comment: To be published in FAccT 2022

We are interested in estimating the effect of a treatment applied to individuals at multiple sites, where data is stored locally for each site. Due to privacy constraints, individual-level data cannot be shared across sites; the sites may also have heterogeneous populations and treatment assignment mechanisms. Motivated by these considerations, we develop federated methods to draw inference on the average treatment effects of combined data across sites. Our methods first compute summary statistics locally using propensity scores and then aggregate these statistics across sites to obtain point and variance estimators of average treatment effects. We show that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. To achieve these asymptotic properties, we find that the aggregation schemes need to account for the heterogeneity in treatment assignments and in outcomes across sites. We demonstrate the validity of our federated methods through a comparative study of two large medical claims databases.

As more tech companies engage in rigorous economic analyses, we are confronted with a data problem: in-house papers cannot be replicated due to use of sensitive, proprietary, or private data. Readers are left to assume that the obscured true data (e.g., internal Google information) indeed produced the results given, or they must seek out comparable public-facing data (e.g., Google Trends) that yield similar results. One way to ameliorate this reproducibility issue is to have researchers release synthetic datasets based on their true data; this allows external parties to replicate an internal researcher's methodology. In this brief overview, we explore synthetic data generation at a high level for economic analyses.

In severe viral pneumonia, including Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the viral replication phase is often followed by hyperinflammation, which can lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multi-organ failure, and death. We previously demonstrated that alpha-1 adrenergic receptor ($\alpha_1$-AR) antagonists can prevent hyperinflammation and death in mice. Here, we conducted retrospective analyses in two cohorts of patients with acute respiratory distress (ARD, n=18,547) and three cohorts with pneumonia (n=400,907). Federated across two ARD cohorts, we find that patients exposed to $\alpha_1$-AR antagonists, as compared to unexposed patients, had a 34% relative risk reduction for mechanical ventilation and death (OR=0.70, p=0.021). We replicated these methods on three pneumonia cohorts, all with similar effects on both outcomes. All results were robust to sensitivity analyses. These results highlight the urgent need for prospective trials testing whether prophylactic use of $\alpha_1$-AR antagonists ameliorates lower respiratory tract infection-associated hyperinflammation and death, as observed in COVID-19., Comment: 31 pages, 10 figures

For any financial organization, computing accurate quarterly forecasts for various products is one of the most critical operations. As the granularity at which forecasts are needed increases, traditional statistical time series models may not scale well. We apply deep neural networks in the forecasting domain by experimenting with techniques from Natural Language Processing (Encoder-Decoder LSTMs) and Computer Vision (Dilated CNNs), as well as incorporating transfer learning. A novel contribution of this paper is the application of curriculum learning to neural network models built for time series forecasting. We illustrate the performance of our models using Microsoft's revenue data corresponding to Enterprise, and Small, Medium & Corporate products, spanning approximately 60 regions across the globe for 8 different business segments, and totaling in the order of tens of billions of USD. We compare our models' performance to the ensemble model of traditional statistics and machine learning techniques currently used by Microsoft Finance. With this in-production model as a baseline, our experiments yield an approximately 30% improvement in overall accuracy on test data. We find that our curriculum learning LSTM-based model performs best, showing that it is reasonable to implement our proposed methods without overfitting on medium-sized data.

We aim to determine whether a game-theoretic model between an insurer and a healthcare practice yields a predictive equilibrium that incentivizes either player to deviate from a fee-for-service to capitation payment system. Using United States data from various primary care surveys, we find that non-extreme equilibria (i.e., shares of patients, or shares of patient visits, seen under a fee-for-service payment system) can be derived from a Stackelberg game if insurers award a non-linear bonus to practices based on performance. Overall, both insurers and practices can be incentivized to embrace capitation payments somewhat, but potentially at the expense of practice performance.

While it is well-documented that climate change accepters and deniers have become increasingly polarized in the United States over time, there has been no large-scale examination of whether these individuals are prone to changing their opinions as a result of natural external occurrences. On the sub-population of Twitter users, we examine whether climate change sentiment changes in response to five separate natural disasters occurring in the U.S. in 2018. We begin by showing that relevant tweets can be classified with over 75% accuracy as either accepting or denying climate change when using our methodology to compensate for limited labeled data; results are robust across several machine learning models and yield geographic-level results in line with prior research. We then apply RNNs to conduct a cohort-level analysis showing that the 2018 hurricanes yielded a statistically significant increase in average tweet sentiment affirming climate change. However, this effect does not hold for the 2018 blizzard and wildfires studied, implying that Twitter users' opinions on climate change are fairly ingrained on this subset of natural disasters.

Shor's algorithm contains a classical post-processing part for which we aim to create an efficient, understandable method aside from continued fractions. Let r be an unknown positive integer. Assume that with some constant probability we obtain random positive integers of the form x=[ N k/r ] where [.] is either the floor or ceiling of the rational number, k is selected uniformly at random from {0,1,...,r-1}, and N is a parameter that can be chosen. The problem of recovering r from such samples occurs precisely in the classical post-processing part of Shor's algorithm. The quantum part (quantum phase estimation) makes it possible to obtain such samples where r is the order of some element a of the unit group of Z_n and n is the number to be factored. Shor showed that the continued fraction algorithm can be used to efficiently recover r, since if N>2r^2 then k/r appears in lowest terms as one of the convergents of x/N due to a standard result on continued fractions. We present here an alternative method for recovering r based on the Gauss algorithm for lattice basis reduction, allowing us to efficiently find the shortest nonzero vector of a lattice generated by two vectors. Our method is about as efficient as the method based on continued fractions, yet it is much easier to understand all the details of why it works., Comment: corrected minor mistakes