Kang MW, Tangri N, Kwon S, Li L, Lee H, Han SS, An JN, Lee J, Kim DK, Lim CS, Kim YS, Kim S, and Lee JP
Background: Predicting the risk of death in patients admitted to the critical care unit facilitates appropriate management. In particular, among patients who are critically ill, patients with continuous RRT (CRRT) have high mortality, and predicting the mortality risk of these patients is difficult. The purpose of this study was to develop models for predicting the mortality risk of patients on CRRT and to validate the models externally., Methods: A total of 699 adult patients with CRRT who participated in the VolumE maNagement Under body composition monitoring in critically ill patientS on CRRT (VENUS) trial and 1515 adult patients with CRRT in Seoul National University Hospital were selected as the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Using 11 predictor variables selected by the Cox proportional hazards model and clinical importance, equations predicting mortality within 7, 14, and 28 days were developed with development cohort data., Results: The equation using 11 variables had area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values of 0.75, 0.74, and 0.73 for predicting 7-, 14-, and 28-day mortality, respectively. All equations had significantly higher AUROCs than the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores. The 11-variable equation was superior to the SOFA and APACHE II scores in the integrated discrimination index and net reclassification improvement analyses., Conclusions: The newly developed equations for predicting CRRT patient mortality showed superior performance to the previous scoring systems, and they can help physicians manage patients., Competing Interests: C. Lim reports having an advisory or leadership role as the President Elect, Korean Society of Nephrology. J. Lee reports having an advisory or leadership role with the Kidney Research and Clinical Practice. N. Tangri reports having consultancy agreements with Marizyme, Mesentech Inc., PulseData Inc., Renibus, and Tricida Inc.; reports having an ownership interest in Clinpredict, Klinrisk, Marizyme, Mesentech Inc., PulseData Inc., Quanta, Renibus, and Tricida Inc.; reports receiving research funding from AstraZeneca, Bayer, BI-Lilly, Janssen, Otsuka, and Tricida Inc; reports receiving honoraria from AstraZeneca, Bayer, BI-Lilly, Janssen, Otsuka Pharmaceuticals, and Pfizer; reports patents or royalties with Klinrisk and Marizyme; reports having an advisory or leadership role with Clinpredict, Klinrisk, and Tricida Inc.; reports having other interests or relationships with the National Kidney Foundation; and reports being the founder of Clinpredict and Klinrisk. S. Kim reports having consultancy agreements with Exosome Plus; reports having an advisory or leadership role with the Korean Society of Nephrology, Editorial Board and the Korean Society of Hypertension, Editorial Board; and reports having other interests or relationships with the Korean Society of Nephrology. Y.S. Kim reports having an advisory or leadership role as President, Seoul National University Hospital. All remaining authors have nothing to disclose., (Copyright © 2022 by the American Society of Nephrology.)