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Hok Sum Chan,1 Fanny Wai San Ko,2 Johnny Wai Man Chan,3 Kah Lin Choo,4 Loletta Kit Ying So,5 David Chi Leung Lam,6 Kit Man Sin,7 Wei Yin Wong,8 Yuk Lun Cheng,1 Maureen Mo Lin Wong9 1Department of Medicine, Alice Ho Miu Ling Nethersole Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Medicine, Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), People’s Republic of China; 4Department of Medicine, North District Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), People’s Republic of China; 5Department of Medicine, Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), People’s Republic of China; 6Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), People’s Republic of China; 7Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), People’s Republic of China; 8Department of Medicine, Haven of Hope Hospital, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), People’s Republic of China; 9Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Caritas Medical Centre, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Hok Sum Chan, Department of Medicine, 6/F, Block J, Alice Ho Miu Ling Nethersole Hospital, 11 Chuen On Road, Tai Po, NT, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), People’s Republic of China, Email chanhs@ha.org.hkBackground: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common cause for hospital admission. This study aims to review the hospital burden of COPD in Hong Kong (HK) and the trend from year 2006 to 2014.Methods: A multi-center, retrospective study of the characteristics of COPD patients discharged from the public hospitals of HK from year 2006 to 2014. Anonymized data retrieval and analysis were performed. The demographic data of the subjects, use of health-care resources, ventilatory support, medications used and mortality of the subjects were analyzed.Results: Total patient headcount (HC) and admission number reduced from 10,425 and 23,362 in year 2006 to 9613 and 19,771, respectively, in 2014. There was a progressive reduction of female COPD HC from 2193 (21%) in year 2006 to 1517 (16%) in 2014. The utilization of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) increased rapidly and peaked in 2010 (29%) and decreased thereafter. There was a rapid increase in the prescription of long-acting bronchodilators (from 15% to 64%). COPD and pneumonia were the top causes of death, but death due to pneumonia was rapidly increasing while death due to COPD was progressively decreasing over the period.Conclusion: COPD HC and admission number (particularly in female patients) decreased progressively from year 2006 to 2014. There was also a decreasing trend of severity of disease as reflected by lower NIV use (after year 2010) and lower mortality rate due to COPD. Reduced smoking prevalence and tuberculosis (TB) notification rate in the community in the past might have reduced the incidence and severity of COPD and the hospital burden of disease. We observed an increasing trend of mortality due to pneumonia in COPD patients. Appropriate and timely vaccination programs are recommended for COPD patients as in the general elderly population.Keywords: hospital burden, mortality, smoking, old tuberculosis, pneumonia

Highlights • Developed two simple-to use nomograms for identifying COVID-19 positive patients. • Probabilities are provided to allow healthcare leaders to decide suitable cut-offs. • Variables are age, white cell count, chest x-ray appearances and contact history. • Model variables are easily available in the general hospital setting., Objectives To develop:(1) two validated risk prediction models for COVID-19 positivity using readily available parameters in a general hospital setting; (2) nomograms and probabilities to allow clinical utilisation. Methods Patients with and without COVID-19 were included from 4 Hong Kong hospitals. Database was randomly split 2:1 for model development database (n = 895) and validation database (n = 435). Multivariable logistic regression was utilised for model creation and validated with the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test and calibration plot. Nomograms and probabilities set at 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6 were calculated to determine sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). Results 1330 patients (mean age 58.2 ± 24.5 years; 50.7% males; 296 COVID-19 positive) were recruited. First prediction model developed had age, total white blood cell count, chest x-ray appearances and contact history as significant predictors (AUC = 0.911 [CI = 0.880-0.941]). Second model developed has same variables except contact history (AUC = 0.880 [CI = 0.844-0.916]). Both were externally validated on H-L test (p = 0.781 and 0.155 respectively) and calibration plot. Models were converted to nomograms. Lower probabilities give higher sensitivity and NPV; higher probabilities give higher specificity and PPV. Conclusion Two simple-to-use validated nomograms were developed with excellent AUCs based on readily available parameters and can be considered for clinical utilisation.

Background Amiodarone is one of the most commonly used anti-arrhythmic agents. Amiodarone pulmonary toxicity is a potentially fatal adverse effect associated with amiodarone use. Previous studies on the epidemiology and risk factors for amiodarone pulmonary toxicity showed diverse results. Methods A multicenter retrospective cohort study was conducted to identify clinic-epidemiologic markers associated with amiodarone pulmonary toxicity for development of a prediction rule. Patients taking amiodarone who were managed in 3 centres in Hong Kong from 2005 to 2015 were included in this study. Penalized logistic regression was used to model the outcome as it is rare. Results A total of 34 cases with amiodarone pulmonary toxicity were identified among 1786 patients taking amiodarone for at least 90 days from 2005 to 2015. The incidence of amiodarone pulmonary toxicity was estimated to be 1.9%. The risk factors for amiodarone pulmonary toxicity included advanced age (OR 1.047, 95% CI 1.010–1.085, p = 0.013), ventricular arrhythmia (OR 2.703, 95% CI 1.053–6.935, p = 0.039), underlying lung disease (OR 2.511, 95% CI 1.146–5.501, p = 0.021) and cumulative dose of amiodarone (OR 4.762, 95% CI 1.310–17.309 p = 0.018). Conclusions The incidence of amiodarone pulmonary toxicity in Chinese patients in Hong Kong is estimated to be 1.9% in this study. Age, underlying lung disease, ventricular arrhythmia and cumulative dose of amiodarone are associated with the development of amiodarone pulmonary toxicity. A prediction rule was developed to inform the risk of developing amiodarone pulmonary toxicity.

Summary Background A cruise ship is a closed-off environment that simulates the basic functioning of a city in terms of living conditions and interpersonal interactions. Thus, the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined because of an onboard outbreak of COVID-19 in February, 2020, provides an opportunity to define the shedding pattern of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and patient antibody responses before and after the onset of symptoms. Methods We recruited adult (≥18 years) passengers from Hong Kong who had been on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama, Japan in February, 2020. All participants had been found to be negative for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR 4 days before disembarking and were transferred to further quarantine in a public estate in Hong Kong, where they were recruited. Participants were prospectively screened by quantitative RT-PCR (RT-qPCR) of nasopharyngeal and throat swabs, and serum IgG and IgM against internal nucleoprotein and the surface spike receptor-binding protein (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 at baseline (upon entering quarantine) and on days 4, 8, and 12 of quarantine. Findings On Feb 22, 2020, 215 adults were recruited, of whom nine (4%; 95% CI 2–8) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-qPCR or serology and were hospitalised. Of these nine patients, nasopharyngeal swab RT-qPCR was positive in eight patients (89%; 57–99) at baseline. All nine patients were positive for anti-RBD IgG by day 8. Eight (89%; 57–99) were simultaneously positive for nasopharyngeal swab RT-PCR and anti-RBD IgG. One patient who was positive for anti-RBD IgG and had a negative viral load had multifocal peripheral ground-glass changes on high-resolution CT that were typical of COVID-19. Five patients (56%; 27–81) with ground-glass changes on high-resolution CT were found to have higher anti-nucleoprotein-IgG OD values on day 8 and 12 and anti-RBD IgG OD value on day 12 than patients without ground-glass changes. Six (67%; 35–88) patients remained asymptomatic throughout the 14-day quarantine period. Interpretation Patients with COVID-19 can develop asymptomatic lung infection with viral shedding and those with evidence of pneumonia on imaging tend to have an increased antibody response. Positive IgG or IgM confirmed infection of COVID-19 in both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. A combination of RT-PCR and serology should be implemented for case finding and contact tracing to facilitate early diagnosis, prompt isolation, and treatment. Funding Shaw Foundation Hong Kong; Sanming-Project of Medicine (Shenzhen); High Level-Hospital Program (Guangdong Health Commission).

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has put tremendous pressure on the healthcare system worldwide. Diagnostic testing remained one of the limiting factors for early identification and isolation of infected patients. This study aimed to evaluate posterior oropharyngeal saliva (POPS) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) detection among patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19. Methods The laboratory information system was searched retrospectively for all respiratory specimens and POPS requested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection between 1 February 2020 and 15 April 2020. The agreement and diagnostic performance of POPS against NPsp were evaluated. Results A total of 13772 specimens were identified during the study period, including 2130 POPS and 8438 nasopharyngeal specimens (NPsp). Two hundred and twenty-nine same-day POPS-NPsp paired were identified with POPS and NPsp positivity of 61.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 55.1–67.6%) and 53.3% (95% CI 46.8–59.6%). The overall, negative and positive percent agreement were 76.0% (95% CI 70.2–80.9%), 65.4% (95% CI 55.5–74.2%), 85.2% (95% CI 77.4–90.8%). Better positive percent agreement was observed in POPS-NPsp obtained within 7 days (96.6%, 95% CI 87.3–99.4%) compared with after 7 days of symptom onset (75.0%, 95% CI 61.4–85.2%). Among the 104 positive pairs, the mean difference in Cp value was 0.26 (range: 12.63 to −14.74), with an overall higher Cp value in NPsp (Pearson coefficient 0.579). No significant temporal variation was noted between the 2 specimen types. Conclusions POPS is an acceptable alternative specimen to nasopharyngeal specimen for the detection of SARS-CoV-2.