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During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Structural colors of 2D gratings are iridescent, color-tunable, and never fade, which renders them appealing for anti-counterfeiting applications. However, for advanced security, it still remains a challenge to completely hide the encrypted color patterns and reveal them on demand. In this work, a water-responsive photonic grating consisting of a micropillar array and a hydrogel overcoat with a similar refractive index, termed “hydrocipher”, is presented. The joint effect of stimuli-reversible refractive-index (mis)match and reconfigurable grating-based diffraction coloration enables a complete encryption of the structural color and rapid decryption. The photonic structure shows a strong iridescence due to the angle-dependent diffraction when the hydrogel overcoat is swollen from water. Upon drying, the micropillars bend and the refractive index contrast disappears, which dramatically lessens the diffraction intensity and renders the surface highly transparent. The dehydrated-to-hydrated state transition can occur within 1 s, enabling fast decryption. The color switching is highly reversible over a prolonged hydration/dehydration cycle, and the dehydrated hydrogel layer protects the delicate micropillar array from external mechanical stress. The creative combination of hydrogel material and the 2D grating structure offers a new and simple strategy for realizing reversible, durable, and fast-response cryptography with potentially broad impact on the anti-counterfeiting technology market.

With the ongoing miniaturization of surgical instruments, the ability to apply large forces on tissues for resection becomes challenging and the risk of buckling becomes more real. In an effort to allow for high force application in slender instruments, in this study, we have investigated using a hydraulic pressure wave (COMSOL model) and developed an innovative 5F cardiac catheter (L = 1,000 mm) that allows for applying high forces up to 9.0 ± 0.2 N on target tissues without buckling. The catheter uses high-speed pressure waves to transfer high-force impulses through a slender flexible shaft consisted of a flat wire coil, a double braid, and a nylon outer coating. The handle allows for single-handed operation of the catheter with easy adjusting of the input impulse characteristic, including frequency (1–10 Hz), time and number of strokes using a solenoid actuator, and easy connection of an off-the-shelf inflator for catheter filling. In a proof-of-principle experiment, we illustrated that the Wave catheter was able to penetrate a phantom model of a coronary Chronic Total Occlusion (CTO) manufactured out of hydroxyapatite and gelatin. It was found that the time until puncture decreased from 80 ± 5.4 s to 7.8 ± 0.4 s, for a stroke frequency of 1–10 Hz, respectively. The number of strikes until puncture was approximately constant at 80 ± 5.4, 76.7 ± 2.6, and 77.7 ± 3.9 for the different stroke frequencies. With the development of the Wave catheter, first steps have been made toward high force application through slender shafts.

In South Africa the challenges facing the post-school vocational education system are daunting. There is a lack of coherence, resulting in fragmentation of the system. A Training Needs Assessment Study commissioned in 2014 revealed several major academic challenges facing college leadership. The most pressing issues were poor leadership and management skills and challenges facing lecturers in various aspects of teaching and learning, amongst which were blatant shortcomings in their capabilities to meet the competencies required for effective lecturing. This realisation led the researchers to hypothesise that ineffective and fragmented leadership and management practices may be to blame for this state of affairs. The researchers wondered whether an integrated and focused leadership model aimed at distributing ownership for student achievement should be implemented to produce better results. The overarching research question was: What are the main stumbling blocks in improving National Certificate: Vocational (NC(V)) students' performance at technical and vocational education and training (TVET) colleges; and how can a distributed instructional leadership approach be conceptualised to address the problems at institutional level? A qualitative research approach was used, which was mainly inductive, providing a clear understanding of the participants' views and capturing their perceptions in their own words. A phenomenological design was used as strategy of inquiry. The findings created an awareness for considering collaboration and the distribution of powers and capabilities to bring about a shared leadership vision in the quest for challenging poor performance at institutional level in a sector that is in dire need of positive outcomes.

The novel contribution of this research is insight into the influence of different parameters in the magnet configurations on the load and stiffness of a ferrofluid pressure bearing. It is shown that magnets with a small cross-section magnetized alternatively up and downwards combine a high load capacity and moderate stiffness while being low on material cost and complexity. The configuration where magnets are placed alternatively in left and right direction magnetized inter spaced with iron yields the highest load capacity and stiffness, albeit at the cost of weight and complexity. It is shown that an increase in the number of magnets is beneficial for the stiffness in both magnetization configurations, as is an increase in remanent flux density of the magnet. A metal bottom plate made of iron reduces the necessary height of the magnet in the up-down magnetization configuration. The model was validated using a bearing pad arranged in the up-down configuration. The force-displacement curve of this pad was measured in a load frame, using the APG 513 ​A ferrofluid from Ferrotec. A load capacity of 1.75 ​N/cm2 was achieved, this exceeds previous pressure bearing implementations and performs comparable or better than implementations of single seal ferrofluid pocket bearings. These results show that the ferrofluid pressure bearing is a passive alternative in motion systems where the designer otherwise would have needed to use an active bearing.

Painful peripheral neuropathy affects millions of people worldwide. Peripheral neuropathy develops in patients with various diseases, including rare familial or acquired amyloid polyneuropathies, as well as some common diseases, including type 2 diabetes mellitus and several chronic inflammatory diseases. Intriguingly, these diseases share a histopathological feature—deposits of amyloid-forming proteins in tissues. Amyloid-forming proteins may cause tissue dysregulation and damage, including damage to nerves, and may be a common cause of neuropathy in these, and potentially other, diseases. Here, we will discuss how amyloid proteins contribute to peripheral neuropathy by reviewing the current understanding of pathogenic mechanisms in known inherited and acquired (usually rare) amyloid neuropathies. In addition, we will discuss the potential role of amyloid proteins in peripheral neuropathy in some common diseases, which are not (yet) considered as amyloid neuropathies. We conclude that there are many similarities in the molecular and cell biological defects caused by aggregation of the various amyloid proteins in these different diseases and propose a common pathogenic pathway for “peripheral amyloid neuropathies”.