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L’identification des dangers est, et restera, une étape essentielle de la sécurité des aliments. Le travail d’identification des dangers nécessite de croiser différents types d’information : études académiques, synthèse bibliographiques, fiches de dangers préparés par les agences, données de surveillance sur les prévalences et concentrations, système d’alerte rapide, remontées des toxi-infections à l’échelle d’un pays, données de santé publique, etc.

The aim of this study was to rank several chemical hazards present in one food item, namely infant formula. We first identified the substances potentially present in infant foods according to the results of the French infant Total Diet Study and to the available scientific literature. Second, we built three criteria to rank the hazards: severity, contribution to the total exposure, and risk characterisation. Each criterion was scored using quantitative or semi-quantitative scales. Third, in order to rank the chemical hazards, two approaches of aggregation of the three criteria were deployed. On the one hand, a multi-criteria decision analysis outranking method and on the other hand a semi-quantitative risk-matrix type method. We then tested these approaches on follow-on formulae for the 7-12 months population, for which contamination data from the French infant Total Diet study were available. The results of both methods showed that the six prioritised substances are the same even if not in the exact same order (acrylamide, inorganic arsenic, furan, chromium VI, lead and PCDD/Fs) demonstrating the robustness of these approaches.

In a context of transition towards plant-based protein diet, a survey aiming to collect the lentil consumer practices in France in 2022 was performed. There were 607 responses to the survey, of which a large majority (556) were lentil consumers. Amongst those, 283 people indicated that they currently eat more lentils than 5 years ago. The questions were related to type of lentil meals, frequency of consumption, type of preparation, storage duration once cooked etc. (Table 1). There were also general questions on age, gender and region. The survey may be used to obtain information on what type of lentils is consumed (and how often) in France, how it is cooked and stored. This information may be then plugged into a food safety risk assessment to refine, for instance, a microbial exposure model. In particular, of the 21 questions asked, four were about possible leftovers and their duration and two about cooling practices for hot meals. This information is crucial for lentils because consumer information about legumes, especially those prepared at home, is still scarce.

Risk-benefit analysis of foods including a formal public health assessment followed by management and communication has been establishing itself as a scientific discipline during the past 15 years. Risk-Benefit Assessments (RBAs), integrating nutrition, toxicology and microbiology, have been increasingly conducted for a variety of foods and food components. Quantitative models in these assessments often use the Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) as a common health metric, as it allows for comparison of diverse health effects. Results are typically reported by population group to capture differences in health outcomes and target communication. Strengthening the links between a formal RBA, risk-benefit management decisions and dietary recommendations communicated to the public will improve transparency and potentially public health outcomes. In the coming years, sustainable food production and other factors in addition to public health might result in risk-benefit analysis becoming part of the broader food system analysis.

This article belongs to the Section Pediatric Nutrition. Cereal-based foods, including breakfast (BC) and infant cereals (IC), are among the first solid foods introduced to infants. BC and IC are sources of macro and micronutrients that have bene ficial effects on health, but can also be sources of harmful chemical and microbiological contaminants and nutrients that may lead to adverse health effects at high consumption levels. This study was performed under the RiskBenefit4EU project with the aim of assessing the health impact associated with consumption of BC and IC by Portuguese children under 35 months. Adverse effects associated with the presence of aflatoxins, Bacillus cereus, sodium and free sugars were assessed against the benefits of fiber intake. We applied a risk–benefit assessment approach, and quantified the health impact of changes in consumption of BC and IC from current to various alternative consumption scenarios. Health impact was assessed in terms of disability-adjusted life years. Results showed that moving from the current consumption scenario to considered alternative scenarios results in a gain of healthy life years. Portuguese children can benefit from exchanging intake of IC to BC, if the BC consumed has an adequate nutritional profile in terms of fiber, sodium and free sugars, with levels of aflatoxins reduced as much as possible. This research was funded by European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) (Grant Agreement Number–GA/EFSA/AFSCO/2017/01–GA02) (The authors declare that this manuscript reflects only the authors’ view and EFSA is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.). R.A., P.A. and C.M. also thanks FCT/MCTES for the financial support to CESAM (UIDP/50017/2020 + UIDB/50017/2020), through national funds. R.A. was supported by FCT Individual CEEC 2018 Assistant Researcher Grant CEECIND/01570/2018. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Climate change is one of the threats to the dairy supply chain as it may affect the microbiological quality of raw milk. In this context, a probabilistic model was developed to quantify the concentration of Escherichia coli in raw milk and explore what may happen to France under climate change conditions. It included four modules: initial contamination, packaging, retailing, and consumer refrigeration. The model was built in R using the 2nd order Monte Carlo mc2d package to propagate the uncertainty and analysed its impact independently of the variability. The initial microbial counts were obtained from a dairy farm located in Saudi Arabia to reflect the impact of hot weather conditions. This country was taken as representative of what might happen in Europe and therefore in France in the future due to climate change. A large dataset containing 622 data points was analysed. They were fitted by a Normal probability distribution using the fitdistrplus package. The microbial growth was determined across various scenarios of time and temperature storage reflecting the raw milk supply-chain in France. Existing growth rate data from literature and ComBase were analysed by the Ratkowsky secondary model. Results were interpreted using the nlstools package. The mean E. coli initial concentration in raw milk was estimated to be 1.31 [1.27; 1.35] log CFU/ mL and was found to increase at the end of the supply chain as a function of various time and temperature conditions. The estimations varied from 1.73 [1.42; 2.28] log CFU/mL after 12 h, 2.11 [1.46; 3.22] log CFU/mL after 36 h, and 2.41 [1.69;3.86] log CFU/mL after 60 h of consumer storage. The number of milk packages exceeding the 2-log French hygiene criterion for E. coli increased from 10% [8;12%] to 53% [27;77%] during consumer storage. In addition, the most significant factors contributing to the uncertainty of the model outputs were identified by running a sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the uncertainty around the Ratkowsky model parameters contributed the most to the uncertainty of E. coli concentration estimates. Overall, the model and its outputs provide an insight on the possible microbial raw milk quality in the future in France due to higher temperatures conditions driven by climate change.

International audience; The consumption of red meat has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) worldwide. The objective of this study was to assess quantitatively the burden of disease of CRC and CVD due to the consumption of red meat in France. A probabilistic risk assessment model quantifying the risk, deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALY) of both outcomes was built. In the model, uncertainty and variability were propagated separately. The model used data on current CRC and CVD incidence and red meat consumption in France, as well as dose-response from epidemiological studies. Results were given by age class and gender. A total of 19 [95% CI = 8-33] DALY per 100,000 people per year for CRC associated with red meat consumption was estimated. For CVD, 21 [95% CI = 12-32) DALY per 100,000 people per year was estimated. The uncertainty was mainly due to the dose-response, as revealed by a sensitivity analysis. A scenario analysis, performed on red meat intake, highlighted that consumption of less than 65 g per day could limit the risk of CRC and CVD in the most affected sub-populations.

Broiler meat is considered as the most important source of the foodborne pathogen Campylobacter jejuni. Exposure to stress conditions encountered during the slaughtering process may induce bacterial adaptation mechanisms, and enhance or decrease pathogen resistance to subsequent stress. This adaptation may result from changes in bacterial gene expression. This study aims to accurately quantify the expression of selected C. jejuni genes after stresses inspired from the poultry slaughtering process. RT-qPCR was used to quantify gene expression of 44 genes in three strains after successive heat and cold stresses. Main results indicated that 26 genes out of 44 were differentially expressed following the successive thermal stresses. Three clusters of genes were differentially expressed according to the strain and the stress condition. Up-regulated genes mainly included genes involved in the heat shock response, whereas down-regulated genes belonged to metabolic pathways (such as lipid, amino-acid metabolisms). However, four genes were similarly overexpressed in the three strains; they might represent indicators of the thermal stress response at the species scale. Advances in the molecular understanding of the stress response of pathogenic bacteria, such as Campylobacter, in real-life processing conditions will make it possible to identify technological levers and better mitigate the microbial risk.

Microbiological spoilage of meat is considered as a process which involves mainly bacterial metabolism leading to degradation of meat sensory qualities. Studying spoilage requires the collection of different types of experimental data encompassing microbiological, physicochemical and sensorial measurements. Within this framework, the objective herein was to carry out a multiblock path modelling workflow to decipher causality relationships between different types of spoilage-related responses: composition of microbiota, volatilome and off-odour profiles. Analyses were performed with the Path-ComDim approach on a large-scale dataset collected on fresh turkey sausages. This approach enabled to quantify the importance of causality relationships determined a priori between each type of responses as well as to identify important responses involved in spoilage, then to validate causality assumptions. Results were very promising: the data integration confirmed and quantified the causality between data blocks, exhibiting the dynamical nature of spoilage, mainly characterized by the evolution of off-odour profiles caused by the production of volatile organic compounds such as ethanol or ethyl acetate. This production was possibly associated with several bacterial species like Lactococcus piscium, Leuconostoc gelidum, Psychrobacter sp. or Latilactobacillus fuchuensis. Likewise, the production of acetoin and diacetyl in meat spoilage was highlighted. The Path-ComDim approach illustrated here with meat spoilage can be applied to other large-scale and heterogeneous datasets associated with pathway scenarios and represents a promising key tool for deciphering causality in complex biological phenomena.

International audience; AbstractThere is a growing demand for moving towards sustainable agri-food systems which per nature covers a complex network of activities and domains; such systems will benefit from multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods. Although some reviews on MCDA in agri-food research have been published, none of them covered the whole value chain. In this article, a corpus of 954 articles published by INRA scientists from 2007 to 2017 was used to study the diversity and potentiality of MCDA techniques. For the first time, experts from more than 10 agri-food domains worked altogether to annotate the articles, carry out a multivariate analysis, and finally interpret the statistical results to identify the specificities of certain domains and the complementarities between domains and to suggest avenues for future agri-food research. One-third of the studies were based only on a list of indicators, even when their purpose was to choose, sort, or rank options. Regardless of the scientific discipline in the agri-food sector, MCDA studies rarely considered temporal dynamics, spatial scale changes, or stakeholder contributions. As the agri-food system becomes increasingly sustainable in the near future, the use of MCDA methods will accelerate. To become more effective, they will have to include ecosystem services, even outside the scope of ecological studies. Similarly, MCDA studies will need to include participatory science to involve stakeholders (i.e., public authorities, governmental agencies) and end-users (i.e., farmers, producers, industrials, consumers) in the construction of the multi-criteria evaluation but also in the resulting decisions.

To bridge the data gap on food poisoning caused by coagulase-positive staphylococci (CoPS), especially related to mayonnaise sauce served at Algerian pizzerias, this study aimed to assess the concentration of CoPS in mayonnaise and the probability of exceeding a critical concentration of ≥ 5 log CFU/g. The city of Ain Temouchent in West Algeria was taken as a case study. A probabilistic assessment model was built, taking into account the initial contamination in freshly made mayonnaise and the potential growth before serving. Uncertainty and variability were integrated separately in the model. Uncertainty came from lack of data and model fitting error, variability from natural heterogeneity of biological materials (e.g., microbial strains) and temperature during cold storage. The second-order Monte Carlo procedure was implemented in R using the mc2d package. The following pieces of data were generated to populate the model: CoPS were enumerated and characterized from 57 samples of mayonnaise served at pizzeria in Ain Temouchent city; challenge tests at 23°C were performed in mayonnaise using three CoPS isolates. The following existing data were also gathered: meteorological data from Ain Temouchent were analysed to build a realistic scenario of storage, while a set of 43 and 35 values of the minimal and maximal growth limits of CoPS, respectively, were collected from the literature and analysed to inform a secondary predictive model describing the growth rate at various storage temperature conditions. A sensitivity analysis was performed to facilitate the interpretation of the results. The results revealed a CoPS prevalence in freshly made mayonnaise of 25% [15%; 37%] with concentrations varying from 0.4 [0.3; 0.9] to 2.9 [2.4; 3.0] log CFU/g. The growth rates at 23°C, based on challenge tests in mayonnaise, had a median value estimated to be 1.41 [1.17; 1.65] h−1. Concentration levels according to various scenarios of temperature and serving conditions were calculated. For instance, the median contamination of CoPS in mayonnaise after storage in a refrigerated display counter for 14 h during the hottest months of the year was estimated to be zero. However, the 95th percentile was estimated to be 3.6 [2.9; 4.2] log CFU/g. In this scenario, the probability of exceeding a critical concentration of ≥ 5 log CFU/g was estimated to be 1% [0.3%; 2%], which is low but not negligible. These findings could be used to improve food safety policies and develop a risk management strategy to reduce the food poisoning associated with the consumption of ready-to-use foods in Algerian fast food restaurants.

International audience; Aspergillus fischeri ascospores are known as potential spoilage microorganisms of pasteurized fruit products due to their high incidence in fruits, the ability to survive pasteurization and to grow in acidic conditions. This study aimed to develop a quantitative microbial spoilage risk assessment (QMSRA) model approach to estimate the spoilage risk of packaged strawberry purees due to A. fischeri under various scenarios regarding product formulation, processing and storage conditions. The development of the risk assessment comprised three steps: (1) initial contamination level of raw material by ascospores (N-0), (2) inactivation of ascospores during thermal processing (N-p) and (3) determination of the number of ascospores which are able to survive thermal processing and develop visible mycelia (D = 2 mm) during storage (N-f). Data of visible growth (t(v), days) comprised distributions previously obtained as function of water activity (a(w)) (0.860-0.985), oxygen (0-21%), temperature (8-30 degrees C) and pasteurization (95-105 degrees C/15 s). The simulations were performed in triplicate with 100,000 iterations using the software R. The outcome "spoilage risk" was defined as the probability of having at least one ascospore (N-f) capable of forming visible colonies in 100 g-pack strawberry puree within the typical use-by dates. Overall, high probabilities of spoilage were estimated for purees pasteurized at milder treatments at 85 degrees C/15-60 s (67%) and 90 degrees C/15-60 s (>= 40%) stored at ambient temperature (22 degrees C). The spoilage risk was only effectively reduced (0.02%) by increasing pasteurization conditions to 95 degrees C for at least 45 s. Moreover, the microbial stability of such purees, i.e., spoilage risk < 0.001% (=less than 1 spoilage pack out of 105 produced units) was predicted to occur for purees treated at 100 degrees C/15 s or stored at chilled conditions (

The objective of this study was to develop a structured and transparent framework to rank emerging dietary practices. The first challenge was to rank simultaneously biological and chemical hazards using the same criteria whatever the nature of the hazard. For a list of dietary practices selected based on the results of a survey, hazard identification and health effect characterization was carried out. Taking only the top five practices led to the identification of 41 triplets “emerging dietary practice – hazard – health effect”, which highlights the complexity of scoring risk in food safety. A wide variety of hazards, including microbes, parasites, mycotoxins, allergens and other chemical compounds were considered together with a range of health effects such as foodborne pathogen disease, anaphylaxis, cancer, immunosuppression, endocrine disturbance, etc. The second challenge was to develop a framework easy to populate and run. The risk-ranking framework included eight criteria: five to describe the severity, three to describe the likelihood. All of them were informed by literature data and food safety agencies' reports, plus experts’ opinion. The PROMETHEE outranking MCDA technique, available in a R package, was implemented. This risk-ranking framework applied to the results of our small-scale survey revealed that consuming nuts on a regular basis could be the emerging dietary habit presenting the highest-risk score, due to the aflatoxin B1 hazard and its associated health effect (liver cancer). This risk-ranking framework requires however to be applied furthermore in other contexts to evaluate its robustness and identify opportunities for improvement. Once consolidated, this framework will be highly relevant for food safety authorities and policy makers to move forward transparent and evidence-informed decisions.

National audience; Climate change is expected to affect many different sectors across the food supply chain. The current review paper presents an overview of the effects of climate change on the microbial safety of the dairy supply chain and suggest potential mitigation strategies to limit the impact. Raw milk, the common raw material of dairy products, is vulnerable to climate change, influenced by changes in average temperature and amount of precipitation. This would induce changes in the microbial profile and heat stress in lactating cows, increasing susceptibility to microbial infection and higher levels of microbial contamination. Moreover, climate change affects the entire dairy supply chain and necessitates adaptation of all the current food safety management programs. In particular, the review of current prerequisite programs might be needed as well as revisiting the current microbial specifications of the receiving dairy products and the introduction of new pretreatments with stringent processing regimes. The effects on microbial changes during distribution and consumer handling also would need to be quantified through the use of predictive models. The development of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) models, considering the whole farm-to-fork chain to evaluate risk mitigation strategies, will be a key step to prioritize actions towards a climate change-resilient dairy industry.

Predictive modelling is used in microbiological risk assessment to quantify the growth and inactivation of microorganisms through the use of mathematical models. Campylobacter jejuni is one of the main foodborne pathogens and broiler meat is considered as the most important source of human campylobacteriosis. The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of heating and chilling during the poultry slaughter process on inactivation kinetics of Campylobacter jejuni during chilled storage in order to predict its contamination level prior to preparation and consumption in the consumer's home, and then to assess the compliance to a Performance Objective (PO). Three strains of C. jejuni were submitted to consecutive heat (54 °C for 3 min) and cold (3 °C for 2 h) stresses, mimicking the two main slaughtering steps, i.e. scalding and chilling, by inoculating chicken fillets with three different concentrations (4, 6 and 8 log

“RiskBenefit4EU ‐ Partnering to strengthen the risk‐benefit assessment within EU using a holistic approach” was a knowledge transfer project funded by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) that integrated a multidisciplinary team from Portugal, Denmark and France. This project aimed to strengthen the EU capacity to assess risks and benefits associated with human food consumption, considering the fields of toxicology, microbiology and nutrition. To train the recipient partners from Portugal on Risk‐Benefit Assessment (RBA), a capacity‐building program was implemented, including three main activities: theoretical training on RBA concepts; hands‐on training applying concepts to a case‐study using methods and tools displayed; and scientific missions to provide advanced training in specific domains of RBA. The developed RBA strategy was applied to a case study focusing on the RBAof the consumption of cereal‐based products by Portuguese young children. Risks due to aflatoxins, Bacillus cereus, sodium and free sugars, were evaluated, as well as the benefit of fibreintake. Five different scenarios of infant cereals and/or breakfast cereals consumption were considered, and the assessment showed that moving from the current consumption to the considered alternative scenarios wouldresult in a gain of healthy‐life years. The RiskBenefit4EU project applied a collaborative method to train a new team to perform RBAs of foods and face the challenge of cooperation between experts from different disciplines. During the process of capacity building, a movement from conceptual knowledge towards action was an essential step to effectively increase performance. The developed framework facilitated the case‐study accomplishment and contributed to build a shared and harmonized RBA approach and culture. The suggested strategy can now be re‐used to capacitate other teams in RBA,and can be considered as a basis to build upon.

International audience; The safety and quality of infant milk, whether it is breast milk (BM) or infant formula (IF), are a major concern for parents and public health authorities. BM is recommended as the gold standard at WHO level. However, nowadays IF appears as an essential alternative in Western countries, challenging producers to optimise nutritional quality and safety of IF. The aim of the present paper is to give an overview on the assessment and comparison of risks and benefits associated with BM and IF consumption. To date, this intensively debated subject has been mainly investigated. It has been shown that both diets could be sources of beneficial health effects in terms of nutrition and also risks in terms of chemical safety. Moreover, microbiologists have demonstrated that IF consumption can cause illness due to product contamination or inappropriate milk preparation. The paper concludes on the bottlenecks and gaps which should be investigated to further progress the quantification of the impact of early diet on infant health. Performing a multi-disciplinary risk-benefit assessment with DALY as endpoint, might be a future option to help prioritise management options.

A probabilistic and interdisciplinary risk–benefit assessment (RBA) model integrating microbiological, nutritional, and chemical components was developed for infant milk, with the objective of predicting the health impact of different scenarios of consumption. Infant feeding is a particular concern of interest in RBA as breast milk and powder infant formula have both been associated with risks and benefits related to chemicals, bacteria, and nutrients, hence the model considers these three facets. Cronobacter sakazakii, dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCB), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were three risk/benefit factors selected as key issues in microbiology, chemistry, and nutrition, respectively. The present model was probabilistic with variability and uncertainty separated using a second-order Monte Carlo simulation process. In this study, advantages and limitations of undertaking probabilistic and interdisciplinary RBA are discussed. In particular, the probabilistic technique was found to be powerful in dealing with missing data and to translate assumptions into quantitative inputs while taking uncertainty into account. In addition, separation of variability and uncertainty strengthened the interpretation of the model outputs by enabling better consideration and distinction of natural heterogeneity from lack of knowledge. Interdisciplinary RBA is necessary to give more structured conclusions and avoid contradictory messages to policymakers and also to consumers, leading to more decisive food recommendations. This assessment provides a conceptual development of the RBA methodology and is a robust basis on which to build upon.

High hydrostatic pressure processing (HPP) is a mild preservation technique, and its use for processing foods has been widely documented in the literature. However, very few quantitative synthesis studies have been conducted to gather and analyze bacterial inactivation data to identify the mechanisms of HPP-induced bacterial inactivation. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative analysis of three-decimal reduction times (

Background: Human diet may present both risks and benefits to consumers’ health. Risk-benefit assessment of foods (RBA) intends to estimate the overall health impact associated with exposure (or lack of exposure) to a particular food or food component. Scope and approach: “RiskBenefit4EU – Partnering to strengthen the risk-benefit assessment within EU using a holistic approach” (RB4EU) is a project funded by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) that integrates a multidisciplinary team from Portugal, Denmark and France. This project aims to strengthen the EU capacity to assess and integrate food risks and benefits regarding toxicology, microbiology and nutrition. One of the specific objectives of RB4EU was to build capacity in RBA among the recipient partners from Portugal. In order to achieve this objective, a capacity building strategy including theoretical and hands-on training and the development of a case-study were established. This paper aims to present the strategy used in the RB4EU project to build capacity within RBA, including the main training approaches and the lessons learned. Key findings and conclusions: The capacity-building program included three main activities: theoretical training, focusing on RBA concepts; hands-on training, applying the acquired concepts to a concrete case-study, using the methods and tools displayed; and scientific missions, intending to provide advanced training in specific domains of RBA. The developed strategy can be used in the future to build capacity within RBA. Highlights: Risk-benefit assessment (RBA) aims to estimate health benefits and risks of foods; Capacity building actions contribute to acquire scientific foundation on RBA; RiskBenefit4EU project aims to strengthen the EU capacity to perform RBA; A capacity building strategy was developed and implemented under RiskBenefit4EU; Lessons learned through this capacity building process were reviewed and discussed. This work was supported by the “RiskBenefit4EU – Partnering to strengthen the risk-benefit assessment within EU using a holistic approach” funded by EFSA Partnering Grants (Grant Agreement Number – GA/EFSA/AFSCO/2017/01 – GA02). 1 Ricardo Assunção, Paula Alvito and Carla Martins are grateful to the support of CESAM funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (UID/AMB/50017/2013), through national funds, and the co-funding by the FEDER (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-00763), within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement and Compete 2020. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

International audience; Worldwide, Campylobacter infections are the main cause of human bacterial enteritis and broiler meat is considered as the most important source of human campylobacteriosis. Some mitigation strategies have been focused on reduction of Campylobacter at the slaughtering steps. This study aimed to determine the influence of consecutive stresses inspired by slaughtering steps on the subsequent inactivation of Campylobacter jejuni during cold storage under different modified atmospheres. Using a full experimental design, three strains of C. jejuni of poultry origin were submitted to consecutive heat (46 degrees, 50 degrees or 54 degrees C for 4 min) and cold (-4 degrees or 3 degrees C for 2 h) stresses by plunging cultures into baths at appropriate temperatures. Cultures were then stored at 6 degrees C during seven days under modified atmospheres (70% O-2/30% CO2 or 50% CO2/50% N-2). Inactivation of C. jejuni induced by cold storage was shown to depend significantly (P < 0.0001) upon the heat stress previously applied. It was shown to be the highest under the atmosphere enriched in oxygen, after application of 54 degrees C. Strain inactivation variability was also quantified. These results show that consecutive stresses influence further inactivation of C. jejuni during storage and consequently the contamination level at consumer's plate.

International audience; Couscous is widely consumed in Algeria, but it has been associated with several outbreaks. Couscous semolina may contain heat-resistant spores of Bacillus cereus group IV. These bacteria are mesophilic and potential producers of diarrheal toxin. The present study aimed at predicting (i) the prevalence and concentration of B. cereus group IV during couscous preparation at the time of consumption, and (ii) the number of consumers exposed to 105 cfu/g or more B. cereus in Algeria, due to couscous consumed at home or during collective events. In a probabilistic exposure assessment model, couscous semolina preparation was divided into three modules (i) contamination at retail, (ii) inactivation of B. cereus during couscous steaming and (iii) growth during storage before serving. Each module was built using a combination of newly gathered data, literature studies, predictive models and expert opinions. Algeria was split into four regions: North, South, High Plateau and Kabylia. The main differences between the regions were the seasonal temperature and the consumption pattern. Annually, a total of 3000 people (0.007% total population) and 170 people (0.0004%) were estimated to be exposed to a concentration equal to or above 105 cfu/g, due to home and collective consumption, respectively. The highest exposure came from couscous semolina kept at ambient temperature, in the south of Algeria during summer. Cold storage and consumption within the first 12 h after steaming are factors which limit the exposure to B. cereus group IV in couscous.

International audience; Whilst risk management measures, including food policy, are developed for the protection of public health and the environment, they may also lead to a reduction in health benefits. Policy decisions require then consideration of these necessary trade-offs, which leads to an increasing need to apply formal risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. In this context, the European Food Safety Authority sponsored a Risk-Benefit Assessment Workshop on "past, current and future developments within the risk-benefit assessment of foods (RBA)" held in May 2017. The overall aims of the RBA Workshop were to discuss existing methods, challenges and needs within RBA, and to draft a roadmap for future development of RBA. The specific objectives were to i) identify RBA activities in Europe and globally; ii) discuss how to further develop and optimize RBA methodology; iii) identify challenges and opportunities within RBA; and iv) increase collaboration internationally. The two-day workshop gathered 28 participants from 16 institutions in 11 countries. It included technical presentations of RBA methods and case studies, and two break-out sessions for group discussions. All participants agreed that RBA has substantial potential to inform risk-management decisions in the areas of food safety, nutrition and public health. Several activities to optimize further developments within RBA were suggested. This paper provides a summary of workshop presentations, a discussion of challenges that limit progress in this area, and suggestions of next steps for this promising approach supporting a science-based decision process in the area of risk-benefit management of foods.

International audience; High hydrostatic pressure processing (HPP) is a mild preservation technique, and its use for processing foods has been widely documented in the literature. However, very few quantitative synthesis studies have been conducted to gather and analyze bacterial inactivation data to identify the mechanisms of HPP-induced bacterial inactivation. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative analysis of three-decimal reduction times (t3δ) from a large set of existing studies to determine the main influencing factors of HPP-induced inactivation of three foodborne pathogens (Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Salmonella enterica) in various foods. Inactivation kinetics data sets from 1995 to 2017 were selected, and t3δ values were first estimated by using the nonlinear Weibull model. Bayesian inference was then used within a metaregression analysis to build and test several models and submodels. The best model (lowest error and most parsimonious) was a hierarchical mixed-effects model including pressure intensity, temperature, study, pH, species, and strain as explicative variables and significant factors. Values for t3δ and ZP associated with inactivation under HPP were estimated for each bacterial pathogen, with their associated variability. Interstudy variability explained most of the variability in t3δ values. Strain variability was also important and exceeded interstudy variability for S. aureus, which prevented the development of an overall model for this pathogen. Meta-analysis is not often used in food microbiology but was a valuable quantitative tool for modeling inactivation of L. monocytogenes and Salmonella in response to HPP treatment. Results of this study could be useful for refining quantitative assessment of the effects of HPP on vegetative foodborne pathogens or for more precisely designing costly and labor-intensive experiments with foodborne pathogens.

International audience; Dietary iron deficiency (ID) is the first nutritional deficiency in the world, in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY). This nutritional deficiency may lead to anemia, especially among children, adolescents, and adult women. The aim of this study was to build an original probabilistic model to quantitatively assess the ID, the iron deficiency anemia (IDA) and the subsequent health burden in France expressed in DALY, per age class and gender. The model considered the distribution of absorbed iron intake, the iron requirement distribution established by the European Food Safety Authority and the iron status in France. Uncertainty due to lack of data and variability due to biological diversity were taken into account and separated using a second-order Monte Carlo procedure. A total of 1290 (95% CI = 1230–1350) IDA cases corresponding to 16 (95% CI = 11–20) DALY were estimated per 100,000 individuals per year. The major contributors to IDA burden were menstruating females aged from 25 to 44 years old. Then, a consumption scenario was built with ground beef as intake, an increase in red meat consumption to 100 g/d would not eliminate entirely the IDA burden. The quantitative methodology applied here for France could be reused for other populations. View Full-Text

International audience; Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) is a structured process for determining the public health risk associated with foodborne pathogens. In recent years, there has been a strong tendency in providing food safety decisions based upon quantitative assessment. Especially, variability and uncertainty inherent to biological processes have been integrated in food safety management through the use of powerful statistical and probabilistic techniques. Besides, recent developments in omic technologies may fill knowledge gaps on strain diversity and physiological variability, and, open new perspectives to refine hazard identification. Last, to satisfy the societal demand for balanced recommendations on food, MRA could be, in a near future, embedded into a more comprehensive assessment including chemical and nutritional issues, but also, cost and sustainability considerations.

International audience; As reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the European Food Safety Authority, red meat is a major food source that is responsible for foodborne illnesses due to microbiological hazards. The first objective of this study was to aggregate the available data in the literature in order to identify and characterise the main microbiological hazards associated with red meat consumption in France. Next, the associated numbers of foodborne illnesses, deaths and the subsequent burden of diseases, expressed in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY), were estimated. Using the eight foodborne pathogens kept in the assessment, a probabilistic risk model was built and uncertainty from the data was considered. Campylobacter spp. was ranked as the worst pathogen in terms of the number of human cases associated with red meat consumption, with 210 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 500–520] cases per 100,000 population. The pathogen that induced the highest mortality was non-typhoidal Salmonella enterica, with 0.04 [95% CI = 0.01–0.10] deaths per 100,000 population. These cases were mostly related to pork consumption. However, the major contributor to the number of years in good health lost from red meat consumption in France was hepatitis E, with 33 [95% CI = 1-64] DALY per 100,000 population; this effect was mainly due to pork liver consumption. In terms of foodborne bacteria, for beef and pork meat, Campylobacter spp., non-typhoidal S. enterica, Clostridium perfringens and shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) represented a mean of 2.2 [95% CI = 1.0–4.0] DALY per 100,000 individuals per year. The estimations provided in this study might help authorities to focus on these hazards and ultimately reduce their impact on the health of the French population.

It is vital that harmful bacteria are removed from water and wastewater treatment plants to prevent human/environmental exposure. This paper examines the log reduction of antibiotic-sensitive (AS) and antibiotic-resistant (AR) Escherichia coli (E. coli) as a result of low-pressure (LP) and medium-pressure (MP) UV lamps. A meta-analysis was performed and a mixed-effect model was created in which 303 data points on the log reduction of E. coli from UV treatment were collected. The results show that in order to achieve a 6 log reduction using an MP lamp, on average a UV level of 7.3 mJ/cm2 for AS E. coli and 7.5 mJ/cm2 for AR E. coli were required. Using an LP lamp, a UV level of 8.1 mJ/cm2 for AS E. coli and 8.4 mJ/cm2 for AR E. coli were required. The results show there is no significant difference between the inactivation of AR and AS E. coli at different UV levels. The model predicts that AR or AS E. coli will be inactivated at UV levels lower than the recommended UV operation conditions (40 mJ/cm2), but it is important to use this UV level to inactivate other harmful microorganisms.

International audience; Tap water is used in France to reconstitute powder infant formula, although it is not sterile and possibly contaminated by microbiological and chemical hazards. The present study aims to quantify risks of using tap water in France for the preparation of infant formula, during the first six months of life. Cryptosporidium and arsenic were selected as hazards of greatest concern in microbiology and chemistry, respectively. A probabilistic model was developed using French (when available) and European (alternatively) data. Second order Monte Carlo simulation was used to separate uncertainty and variability of inputs. Outputs were expressed at the individual level as probability of illness and at the population level, using a common metric, the DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Year). Two scenarios of milk preparation were considered: with un-boiled or boiled tap water. Consuming infant formula rehydrated with un-boiled tap water during the first six months of life led to a total of 2250 DALYs per 100,000 infants (90% uncertainty interval [960; 7650]) for Cryptosporidium due to diarrhea, and 1 DALY [0.4; 2] for arsenic due to expected lifetime risk of lung and bladder cancer as a result of early exposure in life. For the entire population, boiling water would suppress the risk from Cryptosporidium. In contrast, the incremental cancer risk was low at the population level but elevated for 5% of the population exposed to high levels of arsenic. A stringent monitoring of tap water supply points should be continued. This multi-risk assessment model could help public health authorities and managers in evaluating both microbiological and chemical safety issues associated with using infant formula prepared with tap water.

International audience; The objective of this article is to bring scientific background as well as practical hints and tips to guide risk assessors and modelers who want to develop a quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) in an industrial context. MRA aims at determining the public health risk associated with biological hazards in a food. Its implementation in industry enables to compare the efficiency of different risk reduction measures, and more precisely different operational settings, by predicting their effect on the final model output. The first stage in MRA is to clearly define the purpose and scope with stakeholders, risk assessors and modelers. Then, a probabilistic model is developed; this includes schematically three important phases. Firstly, the model structure has to be defined, i.e. the connections between different operational processing steps. An important step in food industry is the thermal processing leading to microbial inactivation. Growth of heat treated surviving microorganisms and/or post-process contamination during storage phase is also important to take into account. Secondly, mathematical equations are determined to estimate the change of microbial load after each processing step. This phase includes the construction of model inputs by collecting data or eliciting experts. Finally, the model outputs are obtained by simulation procedures, they have to be interpreted and communicated to targeted stakeholders. In this latter phase, tools such as what-if scenarios provide an essential added value. These different MRA phases are illustrated through two examples covering important issues in industry. The first one covers process optimization in a food safety context, the second one covers shelf-life determination in a food quality context. Although both contexts required the same methodology, they do not have the same end-point: up to the human health in the foie gran case-study illustrating here a safety application, up to the food portion in the brioche case-study illustrating here a quality application.

International audience; Highly prevalent in poultry, Campylobacter is a foodborne pathogen which remains the primary cause of enteritis in humans. Several studies have determined prevalence and contamination level of this pathogen throughout the food chain. However it is generally performed in a deterministic way without considering heterogeneity of contamination level. The purpose of this study was to quantify, using probabilistic tools, the contamination level of Campylobacter spp. on chicken carcasses after air-chilling step in several slaughterhouses in France. From a dataset (530 data) containing censored data (concentration < 10 CFU/g), several factors were considered, including the month of sampling, the farming method (standard vs certified) and the sampling area (neck vs leg). All probabilistic analyses were performed in R using fitdistrplus, mc2d and nada packages. The uncertainty (i.e. error) generated by the presence of censored data was small (ca 1 log10) in comparison to the variability (i.e. heterogeneity) of contamination level (3 log10 or more), strengthening the probabilistic analysis and facilitating result interpretation. The sampling period and sampling area (neck/leg) had a significant effect on Campylobacter contamination level. More precisely, two “seasons” were distinguished: one from January to May, another one from June to December. During the June-to-December season, the mean Campylobacter concentration was estimated to 2.6 [2.4; 2.8] log10 (CFU/g) and 1.8 [1.5; 2.0] log10 (CFU/g) for neck and leg, respectively. The probability of having > 1000 CFU/g (higher limit of European microbial criterion) was estimated to 35.3% and 12.6%, for neck and leg, respectively. In contrast, during January-to-May season, the mean contamination level was estimated to 1.0 [0.6; 1.3] log10 (CFU/g) and 0.6 [0.3; 0.9] log10 (CFU/g) for neck and leg, respectively. The probability of having > 1000 CFU/g was estimated to 13.5% and 2.0% for neck and leg, respectively. An accurate quantification of contamination level enables industrials to better adapt their processing and hygiene practices. These results will also help in refining exposure assessment models.

In the framework of food safety, when mimicking the consumer phase, the storage time and temperature used are mainly considered as single point estimates instead of probability distributions. This singlepoint approach does not take into account the variability within a population and could lead to an overestimation of the parameters. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyse data on domestic refrigerator temperatures and storage times of chilled food in European countries in order to draw general rules which could be used either in shelf-life testing or risk assessment. In relation to domestic refrigerator temperatures, 15 studies provided pertinent data. Twelve studies presented normal distributions, according to the authors or from the data fitted into distributions. Analysis of temperature distributions revealed that the countries were separated into two groups: northern European countries and southern European countries. The overall variability of European domestic refrigerators is described by a normal distribution: N (7.0, 2.7) °C for southern countries, and, N (6.1, 2.8) °C for the northern countries. Concerning storage times, seven papers were pertinent. Analysis indicated that the storage time was likely to end in the first days or weeks (depending on the product use-by-date) after purchase. Data fitting showed the exponential distribution was the most appropriate distribution to describe the time that food spent at consumer's place. The storage time was described by an exponential distribution corresponding to the use-by date period divided by 4. In conclusion, knowing that collecting data is time and money consuming, in the absence of data, and at least for the European market and for refrigerated products, building a domestic refrigerator temperature distribution using a Normal law and a time-to-consumption distribution using an Exponential law would be appropriate.

9th International Conference on Predictive Modelling in Food (ICPMF); Rio de Janeiro, BRAZIL; The inhibitory effect of water activity (a(w)) and storage temperature on single spore lag times of Aspergillus niger, Eurotium repens (Aspergillus pseudoglaucus) and Penicillium corylophilum strains isolated from spoiled bakery products, was quantified. A full factorial design was set up for each strain. Data were collected at levels of a(w) varying from 0.80 to 0.98 and temperature from 15 to 35 degrees C. Experiments were performed on malt agar, at pH 5.5. When growth was observed, ca 20 individual growth kinetics per condition were recorded up to 35 days. Radius of the colony vs time was then fitted with the Buchanan primary model. For each experimental condition, a lag time variability was observed, it was characterized by its mean, standard deviation (sd) and 5th percentile, after a Normal distribution fit. As the environmental conditions became stressful ( e.g. storage temperature and a(w) lower), mean and sd of single spore lag time distribution increased, indicating longer lag times and higher variability. The relationship between mean and sd followed a monotonous but not linear pattern, identical whatever the species. Next, secondary models were deployed to estimate the cardinal values (minimal, optimal and maximal temperatures, minimal water activity where no growth is observed anymore) for the three species. That enabled to confirm the observation made based on raw data analysis: concerning the temperature effect, A. niger behaviour was significantly different from E. repens and P. corylophilum: Tops of 37.4 degrees C (standard deviation 1.4 degrees C) instead of 27.1 degrees C (1.4 degrees C) and 25.2 degrees C (1.2 degrees C), respectively. Concerning the a(w) effect, from the three mould species, E. repens was the species able to grow at the lowest a(w) (aw(min), estimated to 0.74 (0.02)). Finally, results obtained with single spores were compared to findings from a previous study carried out at the population level (Dagnas et al., 2014). For short lag times days), there was no difference between lag time of the population (ca 2000 spores inoculated in one spot) and mean (nor 5th percentile) of single spore lag time distribution. In contrast, when lag time was longer, i.e. under more stressful conditions, there was a discrepancy between individual and population lag times (population lag times shorter than 5th percentiles of single spore lag time distribution), confirming a stochastic process. Finally, the temperature cardinal values estimated with single spores were found to be similar to those obtained at the population level, whatever the species. All these findings will be used to describe better mould spore lag time variability and then to predict more accurately bakery product shelf-life.

In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now mostly phenotypic data have been used in exposure assessment, mechanistic cellular information, obtained using omics techniques, will enable the fine tuning of exposure assessments to move towards the next generation of microbiological risk assessment. In particular, metagenomics can help in characterizing the food and factory environment microbiota (endogenous microbiota and potentially pathogens) and the changes over time under the environmental conditions associated with processing, preservation and storage. The difficulty lies in moving up to a quantitative exposure assessment, because the development of models that enable the prediction of dynamics of pathogens in a complex food ecosystem is still in its infancy in the food safety domain. In addition, collecting and storing the environmental data (metadata) required to inform the models has not yet been organised at a large scale. In contrast, progress in biomarker identification and characterization has already opened the possibility of making qualitative or even quantitative connection between process and formulation conditions and microbial responses at the strain level. In term of modelling approaches, without changing radically the usual model structure, changes in model inputs are expected: instead of (or as well as) building models upon phenotypic characteristics such as for example minimal temperature where growth is expected, exposure assessment models could use biomarker response intensity as inputs. These new generations of strain-level models will bring an added value in predicting the variability in pathogen behaviour. Altogether, these insights based upon omics techniques will increase our (quantitative) knowledge on pathogenic strains and consequently will reduce our uncertainty; the exposure assessment of a specific combination of pathogen and food will be then more accurate. This progress will benefit the whole community of safety assessors and research scientists from academia, regulatory agencies and industry. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion