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Household consumption in China is associated with substantial PM2.5 pollution, through activities directly (i.e., fuel use) and/or indirectly (i.e., consumption of goods and services) causing pollutant emissions. Urban and rural households exhibit different consumption preferences and living areas, thus their contributions to and suffering from air pollution could differ. Assessment of this contrast is important to understand the environmental impacts of the nation’s ongoing urbanization process. Here we quantify Chinese urban and rural households’ contributions to ambient PM2.5 pollution and the health risks they suffer from, by integrating economic, atmospheric, and health models and/or datasets. The national premature deaths related to long-term exposure to PM2.5 pollution contributed by total household consumption are estimated to be 1.1 million cases in 2015, among which 56% are urban households and 44% are rural households. For pollution contributed indirectly, urban households, especially in developed provinces, tend to bear lower mortality risks compared with the portions of deaths or pollution they contribute. The opposite results are true for direct pollution. With China’s rapid urbanization process, the increased indirect pollution-associated premature deaths could largely offset that avoided by reduced direct pollution, and the indirect pollution-associated urban-rural inequalities might become severer. Pollution mitigation strategies from both production and consumption sides could be developed to reduce pollution-related mortality and associated urban-rural inequality.

Pandemics greatly affect transportation, economic and household activities and their associated air pollutant emissions. In less affluent regions, household energy use is often the dominant pollution source and is sensitive to the affluence change caused by a persisting pandemic. Air quality studies on COVID-19 have shown declines in pollution levels over industrialized regions as an immediate response to pandemic-caused lockdown and weakened economy. Yet few have considered the response of residential emissions to altered household affluence and energy choice supplemented by social distancing. Here we quantify the potential effects of long-term pandemics on ambient fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) and resulting premature mortality worldwide, by comprehensively considering the changes in transportation, economic production and household energy use. We find that a persisting COVID-like pandemic would reduce the global gross domestic product by 11.2% and PM2.5-related mortality by 9.5%. The global mortality decline would reach 13.0% had the response of residential emissions been excluded. Among the 13 aggregated regions worldwide, the least affluent regions exhibit the greatest fractional economic losses with no comparable magnitudes of mortality reduction. This is because their weakened affluence would cause switch to more polluting household energy types on top of longer stay-at-home time, largely offsetting the effect of reduced transportation and economic production. International financial, technological and vaccine aids could reduce such environmental imbalance.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a severe problem in China. Research on the sources of Chinese PM2.5 pollution has focused on the contributions of China's domestic emissions. However, the impact of foreign anthropogenic emissions has typically been simplified or neglected, partly due to the perception that the short lifetime of PM2.5 (a few days) does not allow long-distance transport. Here we explore the role of foreign anthropogenic emissions in Chinese PM2.5 pollution in 2015 using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We validate the model simulations with a comprehensive set of observations of PM2.5 and its composition, including sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, and primary organic aerosols, over China and its surrounding regions. We find that 8 % of PM2.5 (5 µg m−3) and 19 % of nitrate (2.6 µg m−3) over eastern China in 2015 was contributed by foreign anthropogenic emissions. The contributions were the highest in January (6.9 µg m−3 PM2.5, with 68 % nitrate) and the lowest in July (2.7 µg m−3 PM2.5, with 11 % nitrate). Yet, only 30 % of such foreign contributions in January were through direct atmospheric transport. The majority (70 %) were instead through chemical interactions between foreign-transported aerosol precursors and China's domestic emissions of pollutants. Specifically, the transport of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) from foreign countries enhanced the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and facilitated the oxidation of Chinese nitrogen oxides (NOx) to form nitric acid (HNO3) over eastern China. The abundance of Chinese ammonia (NH3) further partitioned nearly all HNO3 gas to particulate nitrate, leading to considerable foreign contributions of nitrate and PM2.5 to eastern China. Over southwestern China, foreign anthropogenic emissions contributed 4.9 µg m−3 PM2.5 concentrations (18 % of total PM2.5 mass) to Yunnan Province, with 37 % as organics and 27 % as sulfate. Our findings suggest that foreign anthropogenic emissions play an important role in Chinese PM2.5 pollution because of direct aerosol transport and, more importantly, chemical interactions between transported pollutants and China's local emissions. Thus, foreign emission reductions will be very beneficial for improving Chinese air quality.

The lifetime and concentration of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are susceptible to nonlinear production and loss and to the resolution of a chemical transport model (CTM). This is due to the strong spatial gradients of NOx and the dependence of its own chemical loss on such gradients. In this study, we use the GEOS-Chem CTM in its high-performance implementation (GCHP) to investigate NOx simulations over the eastern United States across a wide range of spatial model resolutions (six different horizontal grids from 13 to 181 km). Following increasing grid size, afternoon surface NOx mixing ratios over July 2015 generally decrease over the Great Lakes region (GL) and increase over the southern states of the US region (SS), yielding regional differences (181 km vs. 13 km) of −16 % (in the GL) to 7 % (in the SS); meanwhile, hydrogen oxide radicals (HOx) increase over both regions, consistent with their different chemical regimes (i.e., NOx-saturated in the GL and NOx-limited in the SS). Nighttime titration of ozone by surface nitric oxide (NO) was found to be more efficient at coarser resolutions, leading to longer NOx lifetimes and higher surface mixing ratios of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over the GL in January 2015. The tropospheric NO2 column density at typical afternoon satellite overpass time has spatially more coherent negative biases (e.g., −8 % over the GL) at coarser resolutions in July, which reversed the positive biases of surface NOx over the SS. The reduced NOx aloft (>1 km altitude) at coarser resolutions was attributable to the enhanced HOx that intrudes into the upper troposphere. Application of coarse-resolution simulations for interpreting satellite NO2 columns will generally underestimate surface NO2 over the GL and overestimate surface NO2 over the SS in summer, but it will uniformly overestimate NOx emissions over both regions. This study significantly broadens understanding of factors contributing to NOx resolution effects and the role of fine-resolution data in accurately simulating and interpreting NOx and its relevance to air quality.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a major air pollutant. Tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) retrieved from sun-synchronous satellite instruments have provided abundant NO2 data for environmental studies, but such data are limited by insufficient temporal sampling (e.g., once a day). The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) launched in February 2020 monitors NO2 at an unprecedented high temporal resolution. Here we present a research product for tropospheric NO2 VCDs, referred to as POMINO-GEMS. We develop a hybrid retrieval method combining GEMS and TROPOMI observations as well as GEOS-Chem simulations to generate hourly tropospheric NO2 slant column densities (SCDs). We then derive tropospheric NO2 air mass factors (AMFs) with explicit corrections for the anisotropy of surface reflectance and aerosol optical effects, through pixel-by-pixel radiative transfer calculations. Prerequisite cloud parameters are retrieved with the O2-O2 algorithm by using ancillary parameters consistent with those used in NO2 AMF calculations. Initial retrieval of POMINO-GEMS tropospheric NO2 VCDs for June–August 2021 reveals strong hotspot signals over megacities and distinctive diurnal variations over polluted and clean areas. POMINO-GEMS NO2 VCDs agree well with our POMINO-TROPOMI v1.2.2 product (R = 0.97, and NMB = 3.6 %) over Asia. Comparison with ground-based MAX-DOAS VCD data at nine sites shows a small bias of POMINO-GEMS (NMB = –15.7 %); however, the correlation for diurnal variation varies from -0.66 to 0.90, suggesting location-dependent performance. Surface NO2 concentrations estimated from POMINO-GEMS VCDs are consistent with measurements from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China at 855 sites (NMB = –24.1 %, and R = 0.95 for diurnal correlation averaged over all sites). POMINO-GEMS data will be made freely available for users to study the spatiotemporal variations, sources and impacts of NO2.

Atmospheric transport of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), the leading environmental risk factor for public health, is estimated to exert substantial transboundary effects at present. During the past several decades, human-produced pollutant emissions have undergone drastic and regionally distinctive changes, yet it remains unclear about the resulting global transboundary health impacts. Here we show that between 1950 and 2014, global anthropogenic PM2.5 has led to 185.7 million premature deaths cumulatively, including about 14% from transboundary pollution. Among four country groups at different affluence levels, on a basis of per capita contribution to transboundary mortality, a richer region tends to exert severer cumulative health externality, with the poorest bearing the worst net externality after contrasting import and export of pollution mortality. The temporal changes in transboundary mortality and cross-regional inequality are substantial. Effort to reduce PM2.5-related transboundary mortality should seek international collaborative strategies that account for historical responsibility and inequality.

Studies assessing the achievability of future air quality goals in China have focused on the role of reducing China’s domestic emissions, yet the influence of transboundary pollution of foreign origins has been largely underappreciated. Here, we assess the extent to which future changes in foreign transboundary pollution would affect the achievability of air quality goals in 2030 and 2060 for China. We find that adopting the low-carbon instead of the fossil fuel-intensive pathway in foreign countries would avoid millions of Chinese people from being exposed to PM2.5 concentrations above China’s air quality standard level (35 µg m−3) in 2030 and the World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline (5 µg m−3) in 2060. China adopting the carbon-neutral pathway rather than its current pathway would also be helpful to reduce transboundary PM2.5 produced from the chemical interactions between foreign-transported and locally-emitted pollutants. In 2060, adopting a low-carbon pathway in China and foreign countries coincidently would avoid 63 % of transboundary pollution and 386,000 associated premature deaths in China, relative to adopting a fossil fuel-intensive pathway in both regions. Thus, the influence of transboundary pollution should be carefully considered when making future air quality expectations and pollution mitigation strategies.

Poverty alleviation is one of the greatest challenges faced by low-income and middle-income countries. China, which had the largest rural poverty-stricken population, has made tremendous efforts in alleviating poverty especially since the implementation of the targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) policy in 2014, and by 2020, all national poverty-stricken counties (NPCs) have been out of poverty. This study combines deep learning with multiple satellite datasets to estimate county-level economic development from 2008 to 2019 and assess the effect of the TPA policy for 592 national poverty-stricken counties (NPCs) at country, provincial and county levels. Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is used to measure the affluence level. From 2014 through 2019, the 592 NPCs experience an average growth rate of per capita GDP at 7.6%��0.4%, higher than the average growth rate of 310 adjacent non-NPC counties (7.3%��0.4%) and of the whole country (6.3%). We also reveal 42 counties with weak growth recently and that the average affluence level of the NPCs in 2019 is still much lower than the national or provincial averages. The inexpensive, timely and accurate method proposed here can be applied to other low-income and middle-income countries for affluence assessment.

Modeling atmospheric chemistry at fine resolution globally is computationally expensive; the capability to focus on specific geographic regions using a multiscale grid is desirable. Here, we develop, validate, and demonstrate stretched grids in the GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry model in its high-performance implementation (GCHP). These multiscale grids are specified at runtime by four parameters that offer users nimble control of the region that is refined and the resolution of the refinement. We validate the stretched-grid simulation versus global cubed-sphere simulations. We demonstrate the operation and flexibility of stretched-grid simulations with two case studies that compare simulated tropospheric NO2 column densities from stretched-grid and cubed-sphere simulations to retrieved column densities from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The first case study uses a stretched grid with a broad refinement covering the contiguous US to produce simulated columns that perform similarly to a C180 (∼ 50 km) cubed-sphere simulation at less than one-ninth the computational expense. The second case study experiments with a large stretch factor for a global stretched-grid simulation with a highly localized refinement with ∼10 km resolution for California. We find that the refinement improves spatial agreement with TROPOMI columns compared to a C90 cubed-sphere simulation of comparable computational demands. Overall, we find that stretched grids in GEOS-Chem are a practical tool for fine-resolution regional- or continental-scale simulations of atmospheric chemistry. Stretched grids are available in GEOS-Chem version 13.0.0.

Nitrogen oxides affect health and climate. Their emissions from inland waters such as lakes are generally considered negligible and are absent in air quality and climate models. Here we find unexpected high emissions from remote lakes on the Tibetan Plateau based on satellite observations and emission inversion. The total emissions from 135 lakes larger than 50 km2 reach 1.9 Ton N h− 1, comparable to individual megacities worldwide. The emissions per unit area exceed those from crop fields. This is the first report of strong natural emissions from inland waters. The emissions are likely from anammox-dominated microbial processes under low-oxygen, low-organic, alkaline and saline conditions. They are associated with substantial warming and glacial and permafrost melting on the plateau, constituting a previously unknown feedback between climate, lake ecology and nitrogen emissions. Veröffentlicht in Nature Geoscience u.d.T.: High natural nitric oxide emissions from lakes on Tibetan Plateau under rapid warming

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74–1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52–0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32–0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28–0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources. Ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the most important environmental health risk factors in many regions. Here, the authors present an assessment of PM2.5 emission sources and the related health impacts across global to sub-national scales and find that over 1 million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating PM2.5 mass associated with fossil fuel combustion emissions.

Substantially enhancing carbon mitigation ambition is a crucial step towards achieving the Paris climate goal. Yet this attempt is hampered by poor knowledge on the net economic effect of mitigation for each emitter, by taking into account potential cost and benefit. Here we use a global economic model with regional and sectoral disaggregation details to assess the mitigation costs for 27 major emitting countries and regions, and further contrast the costs against the potential benefits of mitigation valued as avoided social cost of carbon. We find substantial variabilities across these emitters in both cost and benefit of mitigating each ton of carbon dioxide and, more importantly, a strong negative spatial correlation between cost and benefit. The relative suitability of carbon mitigation, defined as the ratio of normalized benefit to normalized cost, shows great spatial mismatch with the mitigation ambition of emitters indicated in their first intended nationally determined contributions. China is relatively suitable for domestic carbon mitigation and could largely enhance their mitigation ambition. The European Union, which is economically less suitable to reduce domestic emissions, could work with many developing countries which are more suitable but less capable to reduce emissions. Our work provides important information to improve concerted climate action and formulate more efficient mitigation strategy.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO

Currently, mitigating severe particle pollution in autumn and winter is the key to further improving the air quality of China. The source contributions and transboundary transport of fine particles (PM2.5) in pollution episodes are closely related to large-scale or synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation. How to effectively reduce emissions to control haze pollution under different synoptic conditions is rarely reported. In this study, we classify the synoptic conditions over central China from 2013 to 2018 by using Lamb–Jenkinson method and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Final (FNL) operational global analysis data. The effectiveness of emission control to reduce PM2.5 pollution during winter haze episodes under potential synoptic controls is simulated by GEOS-Chem model. Among the 10 identified synoptic patterns, four types account for 87 % of the total pollution days. Two typical synoptic modes are characterized by low surface wind speed and stable weather conditions or high relative humidity (A or C type) over central China due to a high-pressure system or a southwest trough and low-pressure system, blocking pollutants dispersion. Sensitivity simulations show that these two heavy pollution processes are mainly contributed by local emission sources with ∼82 % for A type and ∼85 % for C type, respectively. The other two patterns lead to pollution of transport characteristics affected by northerly or southerly winds (NW or SW type), carrying air pollution from northern or southern China to central China. The contribution of pollution transmission from northern and southern China is 36.9 % and 7.6 %, respectively of PM2.5, and local emission sources contribute 41 % and 69 %, respectively. We also estimate the effectiveness of emission reduction in these four typical severe pollution synoptic processes. By only reducing SO2 and NOx emission and not controlling NH3, the enhanced nitrate counteracts the effect of sulfate reduction on PM2.5 mitigation, with a less than 4 % decrease in PM2.5. In addition, to effectively mitigate haze pollution of NW- and SW-type synoptic-controlled episodes, local emission control actions should be in coordination with regional collaborative actions.

Summertime ozone pollution has become increasingly severe over many parts of China in recent years. Due to lack of historical ozone observations, few studies have analyzed the linkage between natural climate variability and ozone levels for a long time series. This study uses the simulation datasets from CMIP6 to explore the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on summertime (June/July/August) surface ozone concentrations in central-eastern China (CEC; 20°N-42°N, 100°E-123°E) during the period of 1950-2014. Our results show that, after excluding the emission-related trend, the detrended summertime daily mean surface ozone concentrations averaged over CEC in El Niño years (30.69 ppb) are higher than those in La Niña events (29.34 ppb). Compared to the summertime mean ozone of 1950-2014 (30.25 ppb), the maximum anomalies in CMIP6 are 2.88 ppb (9.52% higher) and - 5.52 ppb (18.25% lower) in El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. In addition, the summertime MDA8 ozone of CEC is significantly correlated with the central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) (R = 0.29, P-value = 0.02). Such ozone increases/declines in El Niño/La Niña years are also found in satellite observations of OMI ozone. The results show that the ENSO affects the large-scale circulations over central-eastern China, which regulate the regional atmospheric stability and meteorological conditions (including horizontal wind fields, geopotential height, vertical velocity, surface air temperature, and precipitation) to influence the efficiency of ozone photochemical formation and transport. Our study makes better estimation and attribution of future surface ozone pollution in China.

We present a new product with explicit aerosol corrections, POMINO-TROPOMI, for tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) vertical column densities (VCDs) over East Asia, based on the newly launched TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument with an unprecedented high horizontal resolution. Compared to the official TM5-MP-DOMINO (OFFLINE) product, POMINO-TROPOMI shows stronger concentration gradients near emission source locations and better agrees with MAX-DOAS measurements (R2=0.75; NMB=0.8 % versus R2=0.68, NMB=-41.9 %). Sensitivity tests suggest that implicit aerosol corrections, as in TM5-MP-DOMINO, lead to underestimations of NO2 columns by about 25 % over the polluted northern East China region. Reducing the horizontal resolution of a priori NO2 profiles would underestimate the retrieved NO2 columns over isolated city clusters in western China by 35 % but with overestimates of more than 50 % over many offshore coastal areas. The effect of a priori NO2 profiles is more important under calm conditions.

Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1.2, this study investigates the changes in secondary inorganic aerosols (SIOAs) over the Northern Hemisphere from 1850 to 2007, regional contributions, and consequences on surface air temperature. Results show that SIOAs changes can be divided into two stages. At the first stage (1850–1980), European and North American SIOAs concentrations increase, with a cooling effect especially over Europe and Eastern Siberia. At the second stage (1980–2007), SIOAs concentrations over Europe and North America are reduced with a warming effect in the mid-high latitudes, whereas SIOAs increase over East Asia and South Asia leading to a cooling effect there. The temperature changes over the emission source regions are mainly driven by radiative forcing. Horizontal transfer of heat leads to a temperature response in the Siberian region.

Recent studies demonstrate that the Antarctic Ozone Hole has important influences on Antarctic sea ice. While most of these works have focused on effects associated with atmospheric and oceanic dynamic processes caused by stratospheric ozone changes, here we show that stratospheric ozone-induced cloud radiative effects also play important roles in causing changes in Antarctic sea ice. Our simulations demonstrate that the recovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole causes decreases in clouds over Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitudes and increases in clouds over the SH extratropics. The decrease in clouds leads to a reduction in downward infrared radiation, especially in austral autumn. This results in cooling of the Southern Ocean surface and increasing Antarctic sea ice. Surface cooling also involves ice-albedo feedback. Increasing sea ice reflects solar radiation and causes further cooling and more increases in Antarctic sea ice.

The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is scheduled for launch in February 2020 to monitor air quality (AQ) at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution from a geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) for the first time. With the development of UV–visible spectrometers at sub-nm spectral resolution and sophisticated retrieval algorithms, estimates of the column amounts of atmospheric pollutants (O3, NO2, SO2, HCHO, CHOCHO, and aerosols) can be obtained. To date, all the UV–visible satellite missions monitoring air quality have been in low Earth orbit (LEO), allowing one to two observations per day. With UV–visible instruments on GEO platforms, the diurnal variations of these pollutants can now be determined. Details of the GEMS mission are presented, including instrumentation, scientific algorithms, predicted performance, and applications for air quality forecasts through data assimilation. GEMS will be on board the Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite 2 (GEO-KOMPSAT-2) satellite series, which also hosts the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager 2 (GOCI-2). These three instruments will provide synergistic science products to better understand air quality, meteorology, the long-range transport of air pollutants, emission source distributions, and chemical processes. Faster sampling rates at higher spatial resolution will increase the probability of finding cloud-free pixels, leading to more observations of aerosols and trace gases than is possible from LEO. GEMS will be joined by NASA’s Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) and ESA’s Sentinel-4 to form a GEO AQ satellite constellation in early 2020s, coordinated by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS).

Source data for figures and tables in 'Sulfate emissions from consumption by high and low income countries produce comparable climate impacts' published in Nature Geoscience.

Aromatic hydrocarbons (mainly benzene, toluene, and xylenes) play an important role in atmospheric chemistry but the associated chemical mechanisms are complex and uncertain. Spare representation of this chemistry in models is needed for computational tractability. Here we develop a new compact mechanism for aromatic chemistry (GC13) that captures current knowledge from laboratory and computational studies with only 17 unique species and 44 reactions. We compare GC13 to six other currently used mechanisms of varying complexity in box model simulations of environmental chamber data and diurnal boundary layer chemistry, and show that GC13 provides results consistent with or better than more complex mechanisms for oxygenated products (alcohols, carbonyls, dicarbonyls), ozone, and hydrogen oxide (HOx ≡ OH + HO2) radicals. GC13 features in particular increased radical recycling and increased ozone destruction from phenoxy-phenylperoxy radical cycling relative to other mechanisms. We implement GC13 into the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model and find higher glyoxal yields and net ozone loss from aromatic chemistry compared to other mechanisms. Aromatic oxidation in the model contributes 23 %, 5 %, and 8 % of global glyoxal, methylglyoxal, and formic acid production respectively, and has mixed effects on formaldehyde. It drives small decreases in global tropospheric OH (−2.2 %), NOx (≡ NO + NO2; −3.7 %) and ozone (−0.8 %), but a large increase in NO3 (+22 %) from phenoxy-phenylperoxy radical cycling. Regional effects in polluted environments can be substantially larger, especially from photolysis of carbonyls produced by aromatic oxidation, which drives large wintertime increases in OH and ozone concentrations.