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Mortality burden due to ambient nitrogen dioxide pollution in China: Application of high-resolution models

Authors :
Xinyue Li
Peng Wang
Weidong Wang
Hongliang Zhang
Su Shi
Tao Xue
Jintai Lin
Yuhang Zhang
Mengyao Liu
Renjie Chen
Haidong Kan
Xia Meng
Source :
Environment International, Vol 176, Iss , Pp 107967- (2023)
Publication Year :
2023
Publisher :
Elsevier, 2023.

Abstract

Background: A large gap exists between the latest Global Air Quality Guidelines (AQG 2021) and Chinese air quality standards for NO2. Assessing whether and to what extent air quality standards for NO2 should be tightened in China requires a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of population exposure to ambient NO2 and related health risks, which have not been studied to date. Objective: We predicted ground NO2 concentrations with high resolution in mainland China, explored exposure characteristics to NO2 pollution, and assessed the mortality burden attributable to NO2 exposure. Methods: Daily NO2 concentrations in 2019 were predicted at 1-km spatial resolution in mainland China using random forest models incorporating multiple predictors. From these high-resolution predictions, we explored the spatiotemporal distribution of NO2, population and area percentages with NO2 exposure exceeding criterion levels, and premature deaths attributable to long- and short-term NO2 exposure in China. Results: The cross-validation R2 and root mean squared error of the NO2 predicting model were 0.80 and 7.78 μg/m3, respectively, at the daily level in 2019. The percentage of people (population number) with annual NO2 exposure over 40 μg/m3 in mainland China in 2019 was 10.40 % (145,605,200), and it reached 99.68 % (1,395,569,840) with the AQG guideline value of 10 μg/m3. NO2 levels and population exposure risk were elevated in urban areas than in rural. Long- and short-term exposures to NO2 were associated with 285,036 and 121,263 non-accidental deaths, respectively, in China in 2019. Tightening standards in steps gradually would increase the potential health benefit. Conclusion: In China, NO2 pollution is associated with significant mortality burden. Spatial disparities exist in NO2 pollution and exposure risks. China’s current air quality standards may no longer objectively reflect the severity of NO2 pollution and exposure risk. Tightening the national standards for NO2 is needed and will lead to significant health benefits.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
01604120
Volume :
176
Issue :
107967-
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Environment International
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.0f541d3d82fc4109b274c6b20a1eca07
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2023.107967