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Abstract Background The epidemiology of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains poorly understood, despite the global recognition of its disease burden and the growing concern regarding antimicrobial resistance. This study aimed to systematically review the evidence on NG prevalence in MENA, estimate the pooled mean prevalence across different populations, and explore population-level associations with prevalence as well as sources of between-study heterogeneity. Methods The study conducted a systematic review, risk of bias assessment, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions, utilizing both published and unpublished evidence sourced from international, regional, and national databases, in adherence to PRISMA guidelines. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were employed to analyze the data. Results The study identified 341 NG prevalence measures from 21 countries in MENA. The pooled mean prevalence of current urogenital infection was 1.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1–2.8%) in the general population, with a higher pooled prevalence in studies with sample sizes

Summary: This study aimed to analytically describe the epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) infection in the United States through a systematic review and meta-analytics. We reviewed 159 publications, identifying 190 seroprevalence measures and 43 proportions of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes. The pooled mean HSV-1 seroprevalence was 38.0% (95% CI: 30.9–45.4) among general-population children and 63.5% (95% CI: 61.3–65.7) among general-population adults. Age explained 43% of the seroprevalence variation, with rates increasing progressively with age. Seroprevalence declined by 0.99-fold (95% CI: 0.99–0.99) per year. The pooled mean proportion of HSV-1 detection in genital herpes was 15.4% (95% CI: 10.8–20.6), increasing by 1.02-fold (95% CI: 1.00–1.04) per year. Recurrent genital herpes had a 0.17-fold (95% CI: 0.09–0.32) lower proportion of HSV-1 detection compared to first-episode cases. The epidemiology of HSV-1 is shifting, marked by a decline in oral acquisition during childhood and an increase in genital acquisition during adulthood.

Background: This study aimed to examine the transmission dynamics of Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) in heterosexual sex work networks (HSWNs) and the impact of variation in sexual behavior and interventions on NG epidemiology. Methods: The study employed an individual-based mathematical model to simulate NG transmission dynamics in sexual networks involving female sex workers (FSWs) and their clients, primarily focusing on the Middle East and North Africa region. A deterministic model was also used to describe NG transmission from clients to their spouses. Results: NG epidemiology in HSWNs displays two distinct patterns. In the common low-partner-number HSWNs, a significant proportion of NG incidence occurs among FSWs, with NG prevalence 13 times higher among FSWs than clients, and three times higher among clients than their spouses. Interventions substantially reduce incidence. Increasing condom use from 10 % to 50 % lowers NG prevalence among FSWs, clients, and their spouses from 12.2 % to 6.4 %, 1.2 % to 0.5 %, and 0.4 % to 0.2 %, respectively. Increasing symptomatic treatment coverage among FSWs from 0 % to 100 % decreases prevalence from 10.6 % to 4.5 %, 0.8 % to 0.4 %, and 0.3 % to 0.1 %, respectively. Increasing asymptomatic treatment coverage among FSWs from 0 % to 50 % decreases prevalence from 8.2 % to 0.4 %, 0.6 % to 0.1 %, and 0.2 % to 0.0 %, respectively, with very low prevalence when coverage exceeds 50 %. In high-partner-number HSWNs, prevalence among FSWs saturates at a high level, and the vast majority of incidence occurs among clients and their spouses, with a limited impact of incremental increases in interventions. Conclusion: NG epidemiology in HSWNs is typically a ''fragile epidemiology'' that is responsive to a range of interventions even if the interventions are incremental, partially efficacious, and only applied to FSWs.

Abstract Limited data exist on viral hepatitis among migrant populations. This study investigated the prevalence of current hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and lifetime hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among Qatar's migrant craft and manual workers (CMWs), constituting 60% of the country's population. Sera collected during a nationwide COVID-19 population-based cross-sectional survey on CMWs between July 26 and September 9, 2020, underwent testing for HBsAg and HCV antibodies. Reactive samples underwent confirmatory testing, and logistic regression analyses were employed to explore associations with HBV and HCV infections. Among 2528 specimens tested for HBV infection, 15 were reactive, with 8 subsequently confirmed positive. Three samples lacked sufficient sera for confirmatory testing but were included in the analysis through multiple imputations. Prevalence of current HBV infection was 0.4% (95% CI 0.2–0.7%). Educational attainment and occupation were significantly associated with current HBV infection. For HCV infection, out of 2607 specimens tested, 46 were reactive, and 23 were subsequently confirmed positive. Prevalence of lifetime HCV infection was 0.8% (95% CI 0.5–1.2%). Egyptians exhibited the highest prevalence at 6.5% (95% CI 3.1–13.1%), followed by Pakistanis at 3.1% (95% CI 1.1–8.0%). Nationality, geographic location, and occupation were significantly associated with lifetime HCV infection. HBV infection is relatively low among CMWs, while HCV infection falls within the intermediate range, both compared to global and regional levels.

Introduction To estimate the impact of reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity (PIA) prevalence, and of introducing physical activity (PA) as an explicit intervention, on the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Oman.Research design and methods A deterministic population-level mathematical model was employed to investigate the impact of different scenarios for reducing T2DM risk factors on T2DM epidemiology. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status and parameterized with nationally representative data. Intervention scenarios were calculated and compared with a baseline (no-intervention) scenario for changes in T2DM prevalence, incidence, and mortality among adult Omanis between 2020 and 2050.Results In the no-intervention scenario, T2DM prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. Achieving the goals of halting the rise of obesity, reducing smoking by 30%, and reducing PIA by 10% as outlined in the WHO’s Global Action Plan for Non-communicable Diseases (implemented between 2020 and 2030 and then maintained between 2031 and 2050) would reduce T2DM prevalence by 32.2%, cumulative incidence by 31.3%, and related deaths by 19.3% by 2050. Halting the rise of or reducing obesity prevalence by 10%–50% would reduce T2DM prevalence by 33.0%–51.3%, cumulative incidence by 31.9%–53.0%, and related deaths by 19.5%–35.6%. Reducing smoking or PIA prevalence by 10%–50% would lead to smaller reductions of less than 5% in T2DM prevalence, cumulative incidence, and related deaths. Introducing PA with varying intensities at a 25% coverage would reduce T2DM prevalence by 4.9%–14.1%, cumulative incidence by 4.8%–13.8%, and related deaths by 3.4%–9.6% by 2050.Conclusions Intervention-for-prevention efforts targeting obesity reduction and introducing PA could result in major reductions in the T2DM burden. Prioritizing such interventions could alleviate the burden of T2DM in Oman and other countries with similarly high T2DM and obesity burdens.

Summary: Background: Trichomoniasis, caused by the parasite Trichomonas vaginalis (TV), remains an underappreciated sexually transmitted infection (STI), primarily due to inadequate understanding of its epidemiology and public health implications. This study aimed to characterize TV epidemiology in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Methods: Systematic review and analysis of evidence sourced from international, regional, and national databases were conducted. Findings were reported following PRISMA guidelines. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were performed to determine pooled mean prevalence, investigate associations with prevalence, and identify sources of between-study heterogeneity. Findings: The review identified 263 relevant publications, encompassing 462 TV prevalence measures. The pooled mean TV prevalence was estimated as follows: 4.7% (95% CI: 3.9–5.6%) in the general population of women, 17.2% (95% CI: 5.4–33.6%) among intermediate-risk populations, 10.3% (95% CI: 6.2–15.3%) among female sex workers, 13.9% (95% CI: 12.3–15.6%) among symptomatic women, 7.4% (95% CI: 1.9–15.5%) among infertility clinic attendees, 2.3% (95% CI: 0.1–6.3%) among women with miscarriages or ectopic pregnancies, and 1.6% (95% CI: 0.8–2.7%) among STI clinic attendees. Limited data were found for men. Multivariable meta-regressions explained >40% of the prevalence variation, unveiling a hierarchical prevalence pattern by population type, an inverse correlation with national income, and a prevalence decline at a rate of 1% per calendar year. Interpretation: Despite conservative sexual norms, MENA has a substantial TV prevalence, comparable to the global TV prevalence. The unexpectedly high prevalence of this curable infection may, in part, be attributed to limited access to and underutilization of STI screening and treatment services. Funding: This work was supported by the Qatar Research, Development, and Innovation Council [ARG01-0522-230273] and by the Biomedical Research Program at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar.

Objective: This study investigated the association between Coronavirus Disease 2019 mRNA vaccination and stroke in Qatar. Methods: Between December 1, 2020, and April 11, 2023, a matched case-control study was conducted to investigate the association between 3036 acute stroke cases and 3036 controls drawn from the entire population of Qatar. Results: The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for vaccination among cases compared to controls was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.75-1.00). The aOR was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.45-1.23) for a single vaccine dose, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.73-1.04) for primary-series vaccination (two doses), and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.66-1.25) for booster vaccination (three or more doses). The aOR was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.72-1.04) for BNT162b2 and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.67-1.11) for mRNA-1273. Subgroup analyses, considering different durations since vaccination, also demonstrated no association. Subgroup analyses based on nationality, age, number of coexisting conditions, or prior infection status yielded similar results. Subgroup analysis, stratified by stroke type, suggested an association between vaccination and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (aOR of 2.50 [95% CI: 0.97-6.44]), but it did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion: There was no evidence of an increased risk of stroke following vaccination, both in the short term and in the long term, extending beyond a year after receiving the vaccine.

Objectives Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection poses a global health challenge. By the end of 2021, the WHO estimated that less than a quarter of global HCV infections had been diagnosed. There is a need for a public health tool that can facilitate the identification of people with HCV infection and link them to testing and treatment, and that can be customised for each country.Methods We derived and validated a risk score to identify people with HCV in Egypt and demonstrated its utility. Using data from the 2008 and 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys, two risk scores were constructed through multivariable logistic regression analysis. A range of diagnostic metrics was then calculated to evaluate the performance of these scores.Results The 2008 and 2014 risk scores exhibited similar dependencies on sex, age and type of place of residence. Both risk scores demonstrated high and similar areas under the curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76 to 0.78) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.77 to 0.80), respectively. For the 2008 risk score, sensitivity was 73.7% (95% CI: 71.5% to 75.9%), specificity was 68.5% (95% CI: 67.5% to 69.4%), positive predictive value (PPV) was 27.8% (95% CI: 26.4% to 29.2%) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 94.1% (95% CI: 93.5% to 94.6%). For the 2014 risk score, sensitivity was 64.0% (95% CI: 61.5% to 66.6%), specificity was 78.2% (95% CI: 77.5% to 78.9%), PPV was 22.2% (95% CI: 20.9% to 23.5%) and NPV was 95.7% (95% CI: 95.4% to 96.1%). Each score was validated by applying it to a different survey database than the one used to derive it.Conclusions Implementation of HCV risk scores is an effective strategy to identify carriers of HCV infection and to link them to testing and treatment at low cost to national programmes.

BackgroundThere is a need for statistical methodologies that scrutinize civilian casualties in conflicts, evaluating the degree to which the conduct of war affects civilians and breaches the laws of war. Employing an epidemiological method, this study introduced, developed, and applied a novel approach for investigating mortality of civilians versus combatants in conflicts.MethodsA deterministic mathematical model, structured by age and sex, was developed to describe the process of conflict-related deaths among both combatants and civilians. The model was calibrated using demographic and conflict-related data from different Israel-Gaza conflicts. To quantify the extent of the impact on civilians and determine whether they are the primary focus of a conflict, a statistical metric, the index of killing civilians, along with associated criteria, was devised.ResultsThe model-estimated proportion of deaths in Gaza categorized as combatants was 62.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 57.6–66.2%), 51.1% (95% UI: 47.1–54.9%), and 12.7% (95% UI: 9.7–15.4%) in the 2008–2009, 2014, and 2023 Israel-Gaza conflicts, respectively. The index of killing civilians was 0.61 (95% UI: 0.51–0.74), 0.96 (95% UI: 0.82–1.12), and 7.01 (95% UI: 5.50–9.29) in the 2008–2009, 2014, and 2023 conflicts, respectively. These index values indicate strong evidence for civilians being an object of war in the 2008–2009 and 2014 conflicts, but combatants were still identified as the primary focus of the conflict. In the 2023 conflict, there is robust evidence for civilians being an object of war, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.ConclusionFindings imply a progressive shift in Israel’s rules of engagement over time, with a trend towards higher acceptance of casualties among civilians. The 2023 conflict stands apart from preceding Israel-Gaza conflicts, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.

IntroductionWe aimed to investigate the overlapping epidemiologies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in sexual networks of men who have sex with men (MSM), and to explore to what extent the epidemiology of one sexually transmitted infection (STI) relates to or differs from that of another STI.MethodsAn individual-based Monte Carlo simulation model was employed to simulate the concurrent transmission of STIs within diverse sexual networks of MSM. The model simulated sexual partnering, birth, death, and STI transmission within each specific sexual network. The model parameters were chosen based on the current knowledge and understanding of the natural history, transmission, and epidemiology of each considered STI. Associations were measured using the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient (SRCC) and maximal information coefficient (MIC).ResultsA total of 500 sexual networks were simulated by varying the mean and variance of the number of partners for both short-term and all partnerships, degree correlation, and clustering coefficient. HSV-2 had the highest current infection prevalence across the simulations, followed by HIV, chlamydia, syphilis, and gonorrhea. Threshold and saturation effects emerged in the relationship between STIs across the simulated networks, and all STIs demonstrated moderate to strong associations. The strongest current infection prevalence association was between HIV and gonorrhea, with an SRCC of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80–0.87) and an MIC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74–0.88). The weakest association was between HSV-2 and syphilis, with an SRCC of 0.54 (95% CI: 0.48–0.59) and an MIC of 0.57 (95% CI, 0.49–0.65). Gonorrhea exhibited the strongest associations with the other STIs while syphilis had the weakest associations. Across the simulated networks, proportions of the population with zero, one, two, three, four, and five concurrent STI infections were 48.6, 37.7, 11.1, 2.4, 0.3, and

IntroductionReinfections are increasingly becoming a feature in the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. However, accurately defining reinfection poses methodological challenges. Conventionally, reinfection is defined as a positive test occurring at least 90 days after a previous infection diagnosis. Yet, this extended time window may lead to an underestimation of reinfection occurrences. This study investigated the prospect of adopting an alternative, shorter time window for defining reinfection.MethodsA longitudinal study was conducted to assess the incidence of reinfections in the total population of Qatar, from February 28, 2020 to November 20, 2023. The assessment considered a range of time windows for defining reinfection, spanning from 1 day to 180 days. Subgroup analyses comparing first versus repeat reinfections and a sensitivity analysis, focusing exclusively on individuals who underwent frequent testing, were performed.ResultsThe relationship between the number of reinfections in the population and the duration of the time window used to define reinfection revealed two distinct dynamical domains. Within the initial 15 days post-infection diagnosis, almost all positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 were attributed to the original infection. However, surpassing the 30-day post-infection threshold, nearly all positive tests were attributed to reinfections. A 40-day time window emerged as a sufficiently conservative definition for reinfection. By setting the time window at 40 days, the estimated number of reinfections in the population increased from 84,565 to 88,384, compared to the 90-day time window. The maximum observed reinfections were 6 and 4 for the 40-day and 90-day time windows, respectively. The 40-day time window was appropriate for defining reinfection, irrespective of whether it was the first, second, third, or fourth occurrence. The sensitivity analysis, confined to high testers exclusively, replicated similar patterns and results.DiscussionA 40-day time window is optimal for defining reinfection, providing an informed alternative to the conventional 90-day time window. Reinfections are prevalent, with some individuals experiencing multiple instances since the onset of the pandemic.

Objectives: We assessed short-, medium-, and long-term all-cause mortality risks after a primary SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: A national, matched, retrospective cohort study was conducted in Qatar to assess risk of all-cause mortality in the national SARS-CoV-2 primary infection cohort compared with the national infection-naïve cohort. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression models. Analyses were stratified by vaccination status and clinical vulnerability status. Results: Among unvaccinated persons, within 90 days after primary infection, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) comparing mortality incidence in the primary-infection cohort with the infection-naïve cohort was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 1.02-1.39). aHR was 1.34 (1.11-1.63) in persons more clinically vulnerable to severe COVID-19 and 0.94 (0.72-1.24) in those less clinically vulnerable. Beyond 90 days after primary infection, aHR was 0.50 (0.37-0.68); aHR was 0.41 (0.28-0.58) at 3-7 months and 0.76 (0.46-1.26) at ≥8 months. The aHR was 0.37 (0.25-0.54) in more clinically vulnerable persons and 0.77 (0.48-1.24) in less clinically vulnerable persons. Among vaccinated persons, mortality incidence was comparable in the primary-infection versus infection-naïve cohorts, regardless of clinical vulnerability status. Conclusions: COVID-19 mortality was primarily driven by an accelerated onset of death among individuals who were already vulnerable to all-cause mortality, but vaccination prevented these accelerated deaths.

Background: Evidence on the effectiveness of vaccination-induced immunity compared to SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity is warranted to inform vaccination recommendations. Aim: In this study, we aimed to conduct a comparative assessment of antibody responses between vaccinated naïve (VN) and unvaccinated naturally infected individuals (NI) over 10 Months. Method: The study comprised fully-vaccinated naïve individuals (VN; n = 596) who had no history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and received two doses of either BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273, and naturally infected individuals who had a documented history of SARS-CoV-2 infection and no vaccination record (NI cohort; n = 218). We measured the levels of neutralizing total antibodies (NtAbs), anti-S-RBD IgG, and anti-S1 IgA titers among VN and NI up to ∼10 months from administration of the first dose, and up to ∼7 months from SARS-CoV-2 infection, respectively. To explore the relationship between the antibody responses and time, Spearman's correlation coefficient was computed. Furthermore, correlations between the levels of NtAbs/anti-S-RBD IgG and NtAbs/anti-S1 IgA were examined through pairwise correlation analysis. Results: Up to six months, VN individuals had a significantly higher NtAb and anti-S-RBD IgG antibody responses compared to NI individuals. At the 7th month, there was a significant decline in antibody responses among VN individuals, but not NI individuals, with a minimum decrease of 3.7-fold (p

Abstract Background Limited data exists on herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) and type 2 (HSV-2) infections in migrant populations. This study investigated HSV-1 and HSV-2 seroprevalences and associations among craft and manual workers (CMWs) in Qatar who constitute 60% of Qatar’s population. Methods A national population-based cross-sectional seroprevalence survey was conducted on the CMW population, all men, between July 26 and September 9, 2020. 2,612 sera were tested for anti-HSV-1 IgG antibodies using HerpeSelect 1 ELISA IgG kits and for anti-HSV-2 IgG antibodies using HerpeSelect 2 ELISA IgG kits (Focus Diagnostics, USA). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify associations with HSV-1 and HSV-2 infections. Results Serological testing identified 2,171 sera as positive, 403 as negative, and 38 as equivocal for HSV-1 antibodies, and 300 sera as positive, 2,250 as negative, and 62 as equivocal for HSV-2 antibodies. HSV-1 and HSV-2 seroprevalences among CMWs were estimated at 84.2% (95% CI 82.8–85.6%) and 11.4% (95% CI 10.1–12.6%), respectively. HSV-1 infection was associated with nationality, educational attainment, and occupation. HSV-2 infection was associated with age, nationality, and educational attainment. Conclusions Over 80% of CMWs are infected with HSV-1 and over 10% are infected with HSV-2. The findings highlight the need for sexual health programs to tackle sexually transmitted infections among the CMW population.

BackgroundHepatitis A virus (HAV) is the predominant cause of acute viral hepatitis worldwide; however, data on HAV antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) among migrant populations are limited. This study aimed to investigate HAV seroprevalence among Qatar's migrant craft and manual workers (CMWs), constituting approximately 60% of the country's population.MethodsHAV antibody testing was conducted on stored serum specimens obtained from CMWs during a nationwide severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) population-based cross-sectional survey between July 26 and September 9, 2020. Associations with HAV infection were investigated through regression analyses.ResultsOf the 2,607 specimens with HAV antibody test results, 2,393 were positive, and 214 were negative. The estimated HAV seroprevalence among CMWs was 92.0% (95% CI: 90.9-93.1%). HAV seroprevalence was generally high but exhibited some variation, ranging from 70.9% (95% CI: 62.4-78.2%) among Sri Lankans to 99.8% (95% CI: 98.2-99.9%) among Pakistanis. The multivariable regression analysis identified age, nationality, and educational attainment as statistically significant factors associated with HAV infection. Relative to CMWs aged ≤29 years, the adjusted relative risk (ARR) was 1.06 (95% CI: 1.03-1.10) in CMWs aged 30-39 years and reached 1.15 (95% CI: 1.10-1.19) in those aged ≥50 years. In comparison to Indians, the ARR was lower among Sri Lankans, assessed at 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72-0.91), but higher among Nepalese at 1.07 (95% CI: 1.04-1.11), Bangladeshis at 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07-1.13), Pakistanis at 1.12 (95% CI: 1.09-1.15), and Egyptians at 1.15 (95% CI: 1.08-1.23). No evidence for differences was found by geographic location or occupation.ConclusionsHAV seroprevalence among Qatar's CMW population is very high, with over nine out of every ten individuals having been exposed to this infection, likely during childhood.

BackgroundHepatitis C virus (HCV) infection levels in Jordan remain uncertain. No HCV national population-based survey has ever been conducted in the country. To meet the World Health Organization’s target of reducing HCV incidence to ≤5 per 100,000 people per year by 2030, it is essential to determine the infection levels, identify affected individuals and populations, and provide appropriate treatment using direct-acting antivirals to individuals carrying the virus.MethodsThe study utilized the HCV testing database of 28,798 attendees of Biolab Diagnostic Laboratories in Jordan, covering the period from January 19, 2010, to May 26, 2023. Cross-sectional and cohort study analyses were conducted, including estimating HCV antibody (Ab) prevalence, examining associations with HCV Ab positivity, determining the HCV viremic rate, and estimating HCV incidence rate using a retrospective cohort study design.ResultsA total of 27,591 individuals, with a median age of 31.3 and 52.9% being females, underwent HCV Ab testing, while 1,450 individuals, with a median age of 42.2 and 32.8% being females, underwent HCV RNA PCR testing. The study sample HCV Ab prevalence was 4.0% (95% CI: 3.7–4.2%). After applying probability weights, the weighted HCV Ab prevalence was 5.8% (95% CI: 4.6–7.3%). Age was strongly associated with HCV Ab positivity, particularly among individuals aged 50 years or older, who had 10-fold higher odds of being HCV Ab positive compared to those aged 10–19 years. Males had 2.41-fold higher odds of testing positive for HCV Ab compared to females. The HCV viremic rate was 54.1% (95% CI: 43.0–65.0%). The cumulative incidence of HCV infection, after 5 years of follow-up, was estimated to be 0.41% (95% CI: 0.17–0.99%). The HCV incidence rate was calculated at 1.19 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.50–2.87).ConclusionPrevalence and incidence of HCV infection were substantial, estimated at ~5% and 1 per 1,000 person-years, respectively, and highlighting the presence of core groups actively engaged in the virus’ acquisition and transmission. The high observed viremic rate indicates the need for expanding HCV treatment efforts to effectively control HCV transmission in Jordan. Utilizing quality diagnostic laboratories and innovative testing strategies is key to identifying infection carriers and facilitating linkage to treatment and care.

Background: The rapid growth of Qatar in the last two decades has attracted a large influx of immigrant craft and manual workers (CMWs) seeking employment in jobs associated with food handling, domestic service, and construction. Nearly 60 % of Qatar's population are expatriates CMWs, including many from hyperendemic countries for HEV. Thus, estimating the seroprevalence of HEV in Qatar and understanding its epidemiology is essential for public health efforts to control HEV transmission in Qatar. Methods: Blood samples from 2670 CMWs were collected between 2020 and 2021. All samples were tested for HEV-IgG antibodies. Positive HEV-IgG samples were tested for HEV-IgM antibodies, and those positives were also tested for viral antigens using an HEV-Ag ELISA kit and HEV-RNA by RT-PCR to confirm current HEV infections. Results: The seroprevalence of HEV-IgG was 27.3 % (729/2670; 95 % CI: 25.6–29.0). Of those HEV-IgG positive, 8.23 % (60/729; 95 % CI: 6.30–10.5) were HEV-IgM positive. Of the IgM-positive samples, 2 were HEV-RNA positive (3.39 %; 95 % CI: 0.40–11.7), and 1 was HEV-Ag positive (1.69 %; 95 % CI: 0.04–9.09). In addition, HEV-IgG seroprevalence was associated with age and nationality, with the highest seroprevalence in participants from Egypt (IgG 60.0 %; IgM 5.56 %), Pakistan (IgG 59.0 %; IgM 2.24 %), Nepal (IgG 29.3 %; IgM 2.70 %), Bangladesh (IgG 27.8 %; IgM 2.45 %), and India (IgG 23.9 %; IgM 2.43 %). Conclusion: In this study, we showed that the seroprevalence of HEV among CMWs was slightly higher than what was previously reported among the urban population in Qatar (2013–2016).

Summary: Background: Protection against SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infection and severe COVID-19 of previous infection, mRNA two-dose vaccination, mRNA three-dose vaccination, and hybrid immunity of previous infection and vaccination were investigated in Qatar for the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants. Methods: Six national, matched, test-negative, case-control studies were conducted between January 18 and December 18, 2021 on a sample of 239,120 PCR-positive tests and 6,103,365 PCR-negative tests. Findings: Effectiveness of previous infection against Alpha, Beta, and Delta reinfection was 89.5% (95% CI: 85.5–92.3%), 87.9% (95% CI: 85.4–89.9%), and 90.0% (95% CI: 86.7–92.5%), respectively. Effectiveness of two-dose BNT162b2 vaccination against Alpha, Beta, and Delta infection was 90.5% (95% CI, 83.9–94.4%), 80.5% (95% CI: 79.0–82.0%), and 58.1% (95% CI: 54.6–61.3%), respectively. Effectiveness of three-dose BNT162b2 vaccination against Delta infection was 91.7% (95% CI: 87.1–94.7%). Effectiveness of hybrid immunity of previous infection and two-dose BNT162b2 vaccination was 97.4% (95% CI: 95.4–98.5%) against Beta infection and 94.5% (95% CI: 92.8–95.8%) against Delta infection. Effectiveness of previous infection and three-dose BNT162b2 vaccination was 98.1% (95% CI: 85.7–99.7%) against Delta infection. All five forms of immunity had >90% protection against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 regardless of variant. Similar effectiveness estimates were observed for mRNA-1273. A mathematical model accurately predicted hybrid immunity protection by assuming that the individual effects of previous infection and vaccination acted independently. Interpretation: Hybrid immunity, offering the strongest protection, was mathematically predicted by assuming that the immunities obtained from previous infection and vaccination act independently, without synergy or redundancy. Funding: The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114.

Background: Some studies have reported that influenza vaccination is associated with lower risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and/or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) morbidity and mortality. This study aims to estimate effectiveness of influenza vaccination, using Abbott’s quadrivalent Influvac Tetra vaccine, against SARS-CoV-2 infection and against severe COVID-19. Methods: This matched, test-negative, case-control study was implemented on a population of 30,774 healthcare workers (HCWs) in Qatar during the 2020 annual influenza vaccination campaign, September 17, 2020-December 31, 2020, before introduction of COVID-19 vaccination. Results: Of 30,774 HCWs, 576 with PCR-positive tests and 10,033 with exclusively PCR-negative tests were eligible for inclusion in the study. Matching by sex, age, nationality, reason for PCR testing, and PCR test date yielded 518 cases matched to 2058 controls. Median duration between influenza vaccination and the PCR test was 43 days (IQR, 29–62). Estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection> 14 days after receiving the vaccine was 29.7% (95% CI: 5.5–47.7%). Estimated effectiveness of influenza vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 was 88.9% (95% CI: 4.1–98.7%). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the main analysis results. Conclusions: Recent influenza vaccination is associated with a significant reduction in the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 severity.

Abstract This study characterized population-level trends and associations with hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody (Ab) prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Data source was the standardized and systematically gathered MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project Database. Random-effects univariable and multivariable meta-regressions were conducted. 2,621 HCV Ab prevalence measures on 49,824,108 individuals were analyzed. In the analysis including all populations, 71% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by at-risk population type. Compared to the general population, prevalence was 23-fold higher among people who inject drugs, and 14-fold higher among high-risk clinical populations. In the analysis including only the general population, 67% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by country/subregion. Compared to Afghanistan, prevalence was highest in Egypt and Pakistan. Prevalence in the general population was declining at a rate of 4% per year, but outside the general population, the decline was at only 1% per year. HCV Ab prevalence in MENA is declining rapidly, but this decline is largely occurring in the general population following introduction of blood and injection safety measures. The decline in populations at higher risk of exposure is slow and below the level needed to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

Abstract Rapid and accurate measurement of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2)-specific neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) is paramount for monitoring immunity in infected and vaccinated subjects. The current gold standard relies on pseudovirus neutralization tests which require sophisticated skills and facilities. Alternatively, recent competitive immunoassays measuring anti-SARS-CoV-2 nAbs are proposed as a quick and commercially available surrogate virus neutralization test (sVNT). Here, we report the performance evaluation of three sVNTs, including two ELISA-based assays and an automated bead-based immunoassay for detecting nAbs against SARS-CoV-2. The performance of three sVNTs, including GenScript cPass, Dynamiker, and Mindray NTAb was assessed in samples collected from SARS-CoV-2 infected patients (n = 160), COVID-19 vaccinated individuals (n = 163), and pre-pandemic controls (n = 70). Samples were collected from infected patients and vaccinated individuals 2–24 weeks after symptoms onset or second dose administration. Correlation analysis with pseudovirus neutralization test (pVNT) and immunoassays detecting anti-SARS-CoV-2 binding antibodies was performed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was generated to assess the optimal threshold for detecting nAbs by each assay. All three sVNTs showed an excellent performance in terms of specificity (100%) and sensitivity (100%, 97.0%, and 97.1% for GenScript, Dynamiker, and Mindray, respectively) in samples collected from vaccinated subjects. GenScript demonstrated the strongest correlation with pVNT (r = 0.743, R2 = 0.552), followed by Mindray (r = 0.718, R2 = 0.515) and Dynamiker (r = 0.608, R2 = 0.369). Correlation with anti-SARS-CoV-2 binding antibodies was variable, but the strongest correlations were observed between anti-RBD IgG antibodies and Mindray (r = 0.952, R2 = 0.907). ROC curve analyses demonstrated excellent performance for all three sVNT assays in both groups, with an AUC ranging between 0.99 and 1.0 (p

Objectives: To estimate the real-world effectiveness of sotrovimab against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 in Qatar at a time in which most SARS-CoV-2 incidences occurred due to the BA.2 Omicron subvariant. Methods: We conducted a matched case-control study among all individuals eligible for sotrovimab treatment per United States Food and Drug Administration guidelines in the resident population of Qatar. The odds of progression to severe forms of COVID-19 were compared in cases (treatment group) versus controls (eligible patients who opted not to receive the treatment). Subgroup analyses were conducted. Results: A total of 3364 individuals were eligible for sotrovimab treatment during the study period, of whom 519 individuals received the treatment, whereas the remaining 2845 constituted the controls. The adjusted odds ratio of disease progression to severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 comparing the treatment group to the control group was 2.67 (95% confidence interval 0.60-11.91). In the analysis including only the subgroup of patients at higher risk of severe forms of COVID-19, the adjusted odds ratio was 0.65 (95% confidence interval 0.17-2.48). Conclusion: There was no evidence for a protective effect of sotrovimab in reducing COVID-19 severity in a setting dominated by the BA.2 subvariant.

Summary: Background: Waning of natural infection protection and vaccine protection highlight the need to evaluate changes in population immunity over time. Population immunity of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19 vaccination are defined, respectively, as the overall protection against reinfection or against breakthrough infection at a given point in time in a given population. Methods: We estimated these population immunities in Qatar's population between July 1, 2020 and November 30, 2022, to discern generic features of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Effectiveness of previous infection, mRNA primary-series vaccination, and mRNA booster (third-dose) vaccination in preventing infection were estimated, month by month, using matched, test-negative, case–control studies. Findings: Previous-infection effectiveness against reinfection was strong before emergence of Omicron, but declined with time after a wave and rebounded after a new wave. Effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 88.3% (95% CI: 84.8–91.0%) in November 2021 to 51.0% (95% CI: 48.3–53.6%) in December 2021. Primary-series effectiveness against infection was 84.0% (95% CI: 83.0–85.0%) in April 2021, soon after introduction of vaccination, before waning gradually to 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5–58.2%) by November 2021. Effectiveness declined linearly by ∼1 percentage point every 5 days. After Omicron emergence, effectiveness dropped from 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5–58.2%) in November 2021 to negligible levels in December 2021. Booster effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 83.0% (95% CI: 65.6–91.6%) in November 2021 to 32.9% (95% CI: 26.7–38.5%) in December 2021, and continued to decline thereafter. Effectiveness of previous infection and vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were generally >80% throughout the study duration. Interpretation: High population immunity against infection may not be sustained beyond a year, but population immunity against severe COVID-19 is durable with slow waning even after Omicron emergence. Funding: The Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114.

BackgroundThe objective of this study was to characterize herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) epidemiology in Canada.MethodsHSV-1 publications as recent as December 6, 2021 were systematically reviewed, synthesized, and reported following PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.ResultsHSV-1 measures were extracted from 22 studies and included 32 overall seroprevalence measures (79 stratified), 2 overall proportions of HSV-1 detection in clinically diagnosed genital ulcer disease (2 stratified), and 8 overall proportions of HSV-1 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes (27 stratified). Pooled mean seroprevalence was 19.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.6–26.4%] among healthy children and 51.4% (95% CI: 47.3–55.5%) among healthy adults. Pooled mean seroprevalence among healthy general populations increased with age, with the lowest being 35.7% (95% CI: 29.1–42.6%) among individuals

BackgroundDirect-acting antivirals opened an opportunity for eliminating hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the region most affected by HCV infection. Impact of HCV treatment as prevention (HCV-TasP) was investigated in 19 MENA countries.MethodsAn age-structured mathematical model was used to assess program impact using epidemiologic and programming measures. The model was fitted to a database of systematically gathered HCV antibody prevalence data. Two main scenarios were investigated for the treatment roll-out to achieve (i) 80% reduction in HCV incidence by 2030, and (ii) incidence rate

AimsTo predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris.MethodsA deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20–79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status.ResultsAll intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8–46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively.ConclusionsImplementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar.

The level of immunity induced by infection with different SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sub-lineages against infection with other sub-lineages is not known. Here, the authors use data from Qatar and show that infection with BA.1 induces strong protection against infection with BA.2, and vice versa, for several weeks.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has subvariants with divergent properties but relative vaccine effectiveness has not been characterized. Here, the authors show that mRNA vaccine effectiveness is similar for the subvariants BA.1 and BA.2, with a decline three months after the second dose and increase after the booster.

Objective To investigate all-cause mortality, COVID-19 mortality and all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods A national, retrospective cohort analysis and national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted between 5 February 2020 and 19 September 2022.Results There were 5025 deaths during a follow-up time of 5 247 220 person-years, of which 675 were COVID-19 related. Incidence rates were 0.96 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.98) per 1000 person-years for all-cause mortality, 0.13 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.14) per 1000 person-years for COVID-19 mortality and 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.85) per 1000 person-years for all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality. Adjusted HR, comparing all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 0.38 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.44), highest for Filipinos at 0.56 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.69) and was 0.51 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.58) for craft and manual workers (CMWs). Adjusted HR, comparing COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 1.54 (95% CI 0.97 to 2.44), highest for Nepalese at 5.34 (95% CI 1.56 to 18.34) and was 1.86 (95% CI 1.32 to 2.60) for CMWs. Incidence rate of all-cause mortality for each nationality group was lower than the crude death rate in the country of origin.Conclusions Risk of non-COVID-19 death was low and was lowest among CMWs, perhaps reflecting the healthy worker effect. Risk of COVID-19 death was also low, but was highest among CMWs, largely reflecting higher exposure during first epidemic wave, before advent of effective COVID-19 treatments and vaccines.

Background: A vast majority of the commercially available lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) is used to detect SARS-CoV-2 antibodies qualitatively. Recently, a novel fluorescence-based lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) test was developed for quantitative measurement of the total binding antibody units (BAUs) (BAU/mL) against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor-binding domain (S-RBD). Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the fluorescence LFIA FinecareTM 2019-nCoV S-RBD test along with its reader (Model No.: FS-113). Methods: Plasma from 150 reverse trancriptase–PCR (RT-PCR)-confirmed positive individuals and 100 prepandemic samples were tested by FincareTM to access sensitivity and specificity. For qualitative and quantitative validation of the FinCareTM measurements, BAU/mL results of FinCareTM were compared with results of 2 reference assays: the surrogate virus-neutralizing test (sVNT, GenScript Biotech, USA) and the VIDAS®3 automated assay (BioMérieux, France). Results: FinecareTM showed 92% sensitivity and 100% specificity compared with PCR. Cohen's Kappa statistic denoted moderate and excellent agreement with sVNT and VIDAS®3, with values being 0.557 (95% CI: 0.32–0.78) and 0.731 (95% CI: 0.51–0.95), respectively. A strong correlation was observed between FinecareTM/sVNT (r = 0.7, p < 0.0001) and FinecareTM/VIDAS®3 (r = 0.8, p < 0.0001). Conclusion: FinecareTM is a reliable assay and can be used as a surrogate to assess binding and neutralizing antibody response after infection or vaccination, particularly in none or small laboratory settings.

Abstract Background Prospective observational data show that infected persons with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remain polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive for a prolonged duration, and that detectable antibodies develop slowly with time. We aimed to analyze how these effects can bias key epidemiological metrics used to track and monitor SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. Methods An age-structured mathematical model was constructed to simulate progression of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in populations. PCR testing to diagnose infection and cross-sectional surveys to measure seroprevalence were also simulated. Analyses were conducted on simulated outcomes assuming a natural epidemic time course and an epidemic in presence of interventions. Results The prolonged PCR positivity biased the epidemiological measures. There was a lag of 10 days between the true epidemic peak and the actually-observed peak. Prior to epidemic peak, PCR positivity rate was twofold higher than that based only on current active infection, and half of those tested positive by PCR were in the prolonged PCR positivity stage after infection clearance. Post epidemic peak, PCR positivity rate poorly predicted true trend in active infection. Meanwhile, the prolonged PCR positivity did not appreciably bias estimation of the basic reproduction number R 0. The time delay in development of detectable antibodies biased measured seroprevalence. The actually-observed seroprevalence substantially underestimated true prevalence of ever infection, with the underestimation being most pronounced around epidemic peak. Conclusions Caution is warranted in interpreting PCR and serological testing data, and any drawn inferences need to factor the effects of the investigated biases for an accurate assessment of epidemic dynamics.

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals and reinfections in those with prior infection are a public health concern. Here, the authors show that viral loads of vaccine breakthrough infections and reinfections are generally lower than primary infections of unvaccinated individuals, potentially indicating lower infectiousness.

IntroductionThe BNT162b2 mRNA-based vaccine has shown high efficacy in preventing COVID-19 infection but there are limited data on the types and persistence of the humoral and T cell responses to such a vaccine.MethodsHere, we dissect the vaccine-induced humoral and cellular responses in a cohort of six healthy recipients of two doses of this vaccine.Results and discussionOverall, there was heterogeneity in the spike-specific humoral and cellular responses among vaccinated individuals. Interestingly, we demonstrated that anti-spike antibody levels detected by a novel simple automated assay (Jess) were strongly correlated (r=0.863, P

BackgroundHIV and Syphilis are common STIs, which have become a concern and burden on healthcare systems, as many infections go untreated and lead to potentially serious complications. HIV is usually diagnosed with Western blot, PCR, and p24 antigen testing. Whereas, Syphilis is mainly diagnosed through clinical findings and serologic testing. The Medical Commission Department (MC) under MOPH is responsible for screening all newcomers to Qatar, aiming to keep the country free from serious infectious diseases.ObjectiveWe aimed to evaluate the diagnostic efficiency of the protocols used in the MC for screening HIV and Syphilis infections.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective study of samples analyzed by 4th Generation ARCHITECT® HIV Ag/Ab Combo and Rapid Plasma Reagin (RPR) between January to December 2019. ARCHITECT® HIV Ag/Ab Combo positive samples were confirmed by INNO-LIA™ HIVI/II and RT-PCR. RPR-reactive samples were confirmed by ARCHITECT® Syphilis Treponema pallidium Antibody (Syphilis TPA) assay.ResultsFor HIV, data were collected from 585,587 individuals, of which 595 (0.1%) were positive by the ARCHITECT® HIV Ag/Ab Combo (Analyzer A). When all initially positive sera were re-tested on newly collected blood samples using different ARCHITECT® HIV Ag/Ab Combo analyzer (analyzer B), 99.8% (594/595) of samples were also positive, suggesting high reproducibility. The positive predictive value (PPV) between ARCHITECT® HIV Ag/Ab Combo and the INNO-LIA™ HIVI/II confirmatory assay was 31.8%. The PPV between ARCHITECT® HIV Ag/Ab Combo and HIV-PCR assay was 26.8%. Retrospective data for Syphilis were collected from a total of 97,298 individuals who visited the MC, of which 198 (0.20%) were initially positive by RPR. The PPV between RPR and Syphilis TPA confirmatory assay was 36.6%.ConclusionDespite the high rate of false positivity using ARCHITECT® HIV Ag/Ab Combo and RPR screening assays, both assays have proven to be highly effective as screening testing methods.

Background Economic losses due to herpes simplex infections in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are unknown. We estimated economic and quality-of-life losses due to genital herpes in 2019, in 90 LMICs, and from 2020 to 2030 in 45 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa. We additionally estimated economic losses due to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) attributable to herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections. Methods and findings We estimated genital herpes-related spending on treatment, wage losses due to absenteeism, and reductions in quality of life, for individuals aged 15 to 49 years, living with genital herpes. Had HSV-2 had contributed to the transmission of HIV, we estimated the share of antiretroviral treatment costs and HIV-related wage losses in 2019 that can be attributed to incident and prevalent HSV-2 infections in 2018. For the former, we used estimates of HSV-2 incidence and prevalence from the global burden of disease (GBD) study. For the latter, we calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs), using the classic (Levin’s) epidemiological formula for polytomous exposures, with relative risks (RRs) reported in literature. To extend estimates from 2020 to 2030, we modeled the transmission of HSV-2 in 45 African countries using a deterministic compartmental mathematical model, structured by age, sex, and sexual activity, which was fitted to seroprevalence gathered from a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. In the 90 LMICs, genital herpes contributed to US$813.5 million in treatment and productivity losses in 2019 (range: US$674.4 to US$952.2 million). Given observed care-seeking and absenteeism, losses are in the range of US$29.0 billion (US$25.6 billion to US$34.5 billion). Quality-of-life losses in the amount of 61.7 million quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) are also possible (50.4 million to 74.2 million). The mean annual cost of treatment and wage losses per infection is US$183.00 (95% CI: US$153.60 to US$212.55); the mean annual cost of quality-of-life losses is US$343.27 (95% CI: 272.41 to 414.14). If HSV-2 has fueled the transmission of HIV, then seroprevalent HSV-2 cases in 2018 can account for 33.2% of the incident HIV infections in 2019, with an associated antiretroviral therapy (ART) cost of US$186.3 million (range: US$163.6 to US$209.5 million) and 28.6% of HIV-related wage losses (US$21.9 million; range: US$19.2 to US$27.4 million). In the WHO Africa region, the 3.9 million seroprevalent genital herpes cases from 2020 to 2030 contributed to US$700.2 million in treatment and productivity losses. Additionally, quality-of-life losses in the range of 88 million to 871 million QALYs are also possible. If HSV-2 has contributed to the transmission of HIV, then in 2020, the PAF of HIV due to prevalent HSV-2 will be 32.8% (95% CI: 26.7% to 29.9%) and due to incident infections will be 4.2% (95% CI: 2.6% to 3.4%). The PAF due to prevalent infections will decline to 31.0% by 2030 and incident infections to 3.6%. Though we have accounted for the uncertainty in the epidemiological and economic parameter values via the sensitivity analysis, our estimates still undervalue losses due to limiting to the 15- to 49-year-old population. Conclusions Economic losses due to genital herpes in LMICs can be large, especially when considering the lifelong nature of the disease. Quality-of-life losses outweigh spending on treatment and reductions in productivity. If HSV-2 has contributed to the spread of HIV in LMICs, then nearly one third of antiretroviral costs and HIV-related wage losses can be attributed to HSV-2. Given the magnitude of the combined losses, a vaccine against HSV-2 must be a global priority. In a modelling study, Dr Sachin Silva and colleagues estimate the economic burden of genital herpes and HIV attributable to herpes simplex virus type-2 infections in 90 low and middle income countries. Author summary Why was this study done? ▪ Economic losses due to herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are unknown. ▪ Quality-of-life losses due to genital herpes in LMICs are also unknown, both in terms of their magnitude and their economic value. ▪ If HSV-2 has indeed fueled the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), as has been conjectured, then the share of HIV-related spending in LMICs that are attributable to HSV-2 infections are also unknown. What did the researchers do and find? ▪ We estimated direct and indirect economic losses and quality-of-life losses due to genital herpes in individuals between the aged of 15 to 49 living in 90 LMICs in 2019. ▪ We also estimated these costs in 45 countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) Africa region from 2020 to 2030, by constructing a mathematical model of HSV-2 dynamics to predict HSV-2 incidence and prevalence. ▪ We supplemented the 2019 estimates with the share of HIV-related spending in 2019 attributable HSV-2 infections in 2018. ▪ For the 90 LMICs, we found that treatment costs and productivity losses in 2019 are in the range of US$674.4 and US$952.2 million. ▪ Quality-of-life losses are in the range of 50.4 million to 74.2 million quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). ▪ Additionally, seroprevalent HSV-2 cases in 2019 can account for 33.2% of antiretroviral therapy (ART) costs for incident HIV cases and 28.6% of HIV-related wage. What do these findings mean? ▪ Economic losses due to genital herpes can be substantial, especially when considering the lifelong nature of the disease. ▪ The quality-of-life losses due to genital herpes outweigh spending on treatment and reduced productivity (on the order of US$212 billion). ▪ If HSV-2 has indeed contributed to the transmission of HIV, then nearly one third of antiretroviral costs and HIV-related wage losses add to these costs. ▪ Given the magnitude of the above losses in LMICs, a vaccine against HSV-2 should be a global priority.

Background: Breakthrough infections after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination have been reported. Clinical outcomes in these persons are not widely known. Methods: We evaluated all vaccinated persons with breakthrough infection ≥14 days after the second vaccine dose and unvaccinated controls matched on age, sex, nationality, and reason for testing between December 23, 2020 and March 28, 2021 in Qatar. Our primary outcome was severe disease defined as hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, or death. Results: Among 456 persons cases of breakthrough infection and 456 unvaccinated matched controls with confirmed infection, median age was 45 years, 60.7% were males, and ≥1 comorbid condition was present in 61.2% of the vaccinated and 47.8% of the unvaccinated persons (P=0.009). Severe disease was recorded in 48 (10.5%) of the vaccinated and 121 (26.5%) of the unvaccinated group (P40–60 years, HR 2.32; >60–70 years, HR 4.34; >70 years, HR 5.43); presence of symptoms at baseline (HR 2.42, 95%CI 1.44-4.07); and being unvaccinated (HR 2.84, 95%CI 1.80-4.47). Conclusions: In persons with breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection, increasing age is associated with a higher risk of severe disease or death, while vaccination is associated with a lower risk. Presence of comorbidities was not associated with severe disease or death among persons with breakthrough infection.

Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic resulted in considerable morbidity and mortality as well as severe economic and societal disruptions. Despite scientific progress, true infection severity, factoring both diagnosed and undiagnosed infections, remains poorly understood. This study aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age-stratified and overall morbidity and mortality rates based on analysis of extensive epidemiological data for the pervasive epidemic in Qatar, a country where

Summary: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a rapidly evolving RNA virus that mutates within hosts and exists as viral quasispecies. Here, we evaluated the within-host diversity among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals (n = 379) infected with different SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern. The majority of samples harbored less than 14 intra-host single-nucleotide variants (iSNVs). A deep analysis revealed a significantly higher intra-host diversity in Omicron samples than in other variants (p value

In 2021, Qatar experienced considerable incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection that was dominated sequentially by the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants. Using the cycle threshold (Ct) value of an RT-qPCR-positive test to proxy the inverse of infectiousness, we investigated infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 infections by variant, age, sex, vaccination status, prior infection status, and reason for testing in a random sample of 18,355 RT-qPCR-genotyped infections. Regression analyses were conducted to estimate associations with the Ct value of RT-qPCR-positive tests. Compared to Beta infections, Alpha and Delta infections demonstrated 2.56 higher Ct cycles (95% CI: 2.35-2.78), and 4.92 fewer cycles (95% CI: 4.67- 5.16), respectively. The Ct value declined gradually with age and was especially high for children

Abstract Aims/Introduction To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050. Materials and Methods An age‐structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population‐based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors. Results The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with 570,227 in 2050. The incidence rate per 1,000 person‐years changed from 8.3 in 2020 to 12.1 in 2050. Type 2 diabetes mellitus’ share of Oman’s national health expenditure grew by 36% between 2020 and 2050 (from 21.2 to 28.8%). Obesity explained 56.7% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases in 2020 and 71.4% in 2050, physical inactivity explained 4.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2050, whereas smoking accounted for

Background: High-throughput assays that can infer neutralizing activity against SARS-CoV-2 are of great importance for assessing the immunity induced by natural infection and COVID-19 vaccines. We aimed to evaluate the performance and degree of correlation of three fully automated anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays with neutralization activity using a surrogate virus-neutralizing test (sVNT) from GenScript, targeting the receptor-binding domain. Methods: 110 sera collected from PCR-confirmed asymptomatic COVID-19 individuals were tested for neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) using the sVNT. Positive samples were tested on three automated immunoassays targeting different viral antigens: Mindray CL-900i®, Abbott Architect, and Ortho VITROS®. The diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, agreement, and correlation with the sVNT were assessed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to determine optimal thresholds for predicting the presence of neutralizing activity by each assay. Results: All three assays showed 100% specificities. The highest sensitivity was 99.0%, demonstrated by VITROS®, followed by 94.3%, for CL-900i®, and 81.0%, for Architect. Both VITROS® and CL-900i® had the strongest correlation with the sVNT (ρ = 0.718 and ρ = 0.712, respectively), while Architect showed a moderate correlation (ρ = 0.618). ROC curve analysis indicated that the manufacturer’s recommended cutoff values are adequate for predicting the presence of nAbs and providing a strong correlation with the sVNT. Conclusion: VITROS® and CL-900i® serological assays, which detect antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, could serve as reliable assays to predict neutralization activity after infection or vaccination.

Abstract Performance of three automated commercial serological IgG-based assays was investigated for assessing SARS-CoV-2 “ever” (past or current) infection in a population-based sample in a high exposure setting. PCR and serological testing was performed on 394 individuals. SARS-CoV-2-IgG seroprevalence was 42.9% (95% CI 38.1–47.8%), 40.6% (95% CI 35.9–45.5%), and 42.4% (95% CI 37.6–47.3%) using the CL-900i, VidasIII, and Elecsys assays, respectively. Between the three assays, overall, positive, and negative percent agreements ranged between 93.2–95.7%, 89.3–92.8%, and 93.8–97.8%, respectively; Cohen’s kappa statistic ranged from 0.86 to 0.91; and 35 specimens (8.9%) showed discordant results. Among all individuals, 12.5% (95% CI 9.6–16.1%) had current infection, as assessed by PCR. Of these, only 34.7% (95% CI 22.9–48.7%) were seropositive by at least one assay. A total of 216 individuals (54.8%; 95% CI 49.9–59.7%) had evidence of ever infection using antibody testing and/or PCR during or prior to this study. Of these, only 78.2%, 74.1%, and 77.3% were seropositive in the CL-900i, VidasIII, and Elecsys assays, respectively. All three assays had comparable performance and excellent agreement, but missed at least 20% of individuals with past or current infection. Commercial antibody assays can substantially underestimate ever infection, more so when infection rates are high.

Different COVID-19 treatment candidates are under development, and some are becoming available including two promising drugs from Merck and Pfizer. This study provides conceptual frameworks for the effects of three types of treatments, both therapeutic and prophylactic, and to investigate their population-level impact, to inform drug development, licensure, decision-making, and implementation. Different drug efficacies were assessed using an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, with application to the United States as an illustrative example. Severe and critical infection treatment reduces progression to COVID-19 severe and critical disease and death with small number of treatments needed to avert one disease or death. Post-exposure prophylaxis treatment had a large impact on flattening the epidemic curve, with large reductions in infection, disease, and death, but the impact was strongly age dependent. Pre-exposure prophylaxis treatment had the best impact and effectiveness, with immense reductions in infection, disease, and death, driven by the robust control of infection transmission. Effectiveness of both pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis treatments was disproportionally larger when a larger segment of the population was targeted than a specific age group. Additional downstream potential effects of treatment, beyond the primary outcome, enhance the population-level impact of both treatments. COVID-19 treatments are an important modality in controlling SARS-CoV-2 disease burden. Different types of treatment act synergistically for a larger impact, for these treatments and vaccination.

We investigated what proportion of the population acquired severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and whether the herd immunity threshold has been reached in 10 communities in Qatar. The study included 4,970 participants during June 21–September 9, 2020. Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were detected by using an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Seropositivity ranged from 54.9% (95% CI 50.2%–59.4%) to 83.8% (95% CI 79.1%–87.7%) across communities and showed a pooled mean of 66.1% (95% CI 61.5%–70.6%). A range of other epidemiologic measures indicated that active infection is rare, with limited if any sustainable infection transmission for clusters to occur. Only 5 infections were ever severe and 1 was critical in these young communities; infection severity rate of 0.2% (95% CI 0.1%–0.4%). Specific communities in Qatar have or nearly reached herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2 infection: 65%–70% of the population has been infected.

Abstract Lebanon, a middle-income country with ongoing political turmoil, unstable economic situation, and a fragmented and under-resourced health system, hosts about one million Syrian refugees since 2011. While the country is currently experiencing substantial COVID-19 epidemic spread, no outbreaks have been reported yet among Syrian refugees. However, testing of this population remains limited and exposure levels are high given dire living conditions and close interaction with the host community. Here, we use quantitative insights of transmission dynamics to outline risk and contextual factors that may modulate vulnerability of Syrian refugees in Lebanon to potentially large COVID-19 epidemics. Syrian refugees live in close contact with the host community, and their living conditions are favorable for epidemic spread. We found that the high levels of crowding within Syrian refugee households and among those in informal tented settlements, the inadequate water supply and sanitation, limited use of masks, inadequate access to health care, and inadequate community awareness levels are vulnerability factors that directly impact important parameters of transmission dynamics, leading to larger epidemic scale. Poverty, stigma, and fear of legal consequences are contextual factors that further exacerbate this vulnerability. The relatively high prevalence of non-communicable diseases in this population could also affect the severity of the disease among those infected. Mathematical modeling simulations we conducted illustrated that even modest increases in transmission among Syrian refugees could result in a large increase in the incidence and cumulative total number of infections in the absence of interventions. In conclusion, while the young age structure of the Syrian refugee population might play a protective role against the scale and disease-burden severity of a potential COVID-19 epidemic, the epidemic potential due to several vulnerability factors warrants an immediate response in this population group. Local and international actors are required to mobilize and coordinate efforts to prevent the transmission of COVID-19, and to mitigate its impact amongst the vulnerable refugee populations globally.

Abstract The overarching objective of this study was to provide the descriptive epidemiology of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic in Qatar by addressing specific research questions through a series of national epidemiologic studies. Sources of data were the centralized and standardized national databases for SARS-CoV-2 infection. By July 10, 2020, 397,577 individuals had been tested for SARS-CoV-2 using polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR), of whom 110,986 were positive, a positivity cumulative rate of 27.9% (95% CI 27.8–28.1%). As of July 5, case severity rate, based on World Health Organization (WHO) severity classification, was 3.4% and case fatality rate was 1.4 per 1,000 persons. Age was by far the strongest predictor of severe, critical, or fatal infection. PCR positivity of nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs in a national community survey (May 6–7) including 1,307 participants was 14.9% (95% CI 11.5–19.0%); 58.5% of those testing positive were asymptomatic. Across 448 ad-hoc testing campaigns in workplaces and residential areas including 26,715 individuals, pooled mean PCR positivity was 15.6% (95% CI 13.7–17.7%). SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence was 24.0% (95% CI 23.3–24.6%) in 32,970 residual clinical blood specimens. Antibody prevalence was only 47.3% (95% CI 46.2–48.5%) in those who had at least one PCR positive result, but 91.3% (95% CI 89.5–92.9%) among those who were PCR positive > 3 weeks before serology testing. Qatar has experienced a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic that is rapidly declining, apparently due to growing immunity levels in the population.

Complementing whole genome sequencing strategies with high-throughput multiplex RT-qPCR genotyping allows for more comprehensive and real-time tracking of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. During the second and third waves of COVID-19 in Qatar, PCR genotyping, combined with Sanger sequencing of un-typeable samples, was employed to describe the epidemiology of the Alpha, Beta and Delta variants. A total of 9792 nasopharyngeal PCR-positive samples collected between April-June 2021 were successfully genotyped, revealing the importation and transmission dynamics of these three variants in Qatar.

Objective: To estimate the age- and nationality-specific West Nile virus (WNV) seroprevalence in select Middle East and North Africa (MENA) populations residing in Qatar. Methods: Sera were collected from male blood donors attending Hamad Medical Corporation. A total of 1,948 sera were tested for anti-WNV antibodies using Serion ELISA classic IgG and IgM kits. Results: Overall, seroprevalence estimates of WNV-specific IgG and IgM antibodies were 10.4% and 3.3%, respectively. Country-specific WNV-specific IgG seroprevalence was estimated to be 37.0% (34/92) in Sudanese, 33.0% in Egyptians (66/200), 13.0% (26/200) in Indians, 10.6% (11/104) in Iranians, 10.2% (14/137) in Yemenis, 9.2% (18/195) in Pakistanis, 7.0% (14/199) in Jordanians, 5.4% (6/111) in Filipinos, 2.5% (5/200) in Palestinians, 2.5% (5/200) in Syrians, 1.5% (3/200) in Qataris, and 0.9% (1/110) in Lebanese. Seroprevalence of WNV-specific IgM was lowest in Iranians (0/77), Lebanese (0/108), and Filipinos (0/107) at 0.0%, and was highest in Sudanese at 10.0% (8/80). While there seemed to be apparent trends in the prevalence of WNV-IgM and WNV-IgG antibodies, none of these trends were found to be statistically significant. Conclusion: The findings support the circulation of WNV in human populations in different countries of the MENA region. Seroprevalence was highest in Sudanese and Egyptians and lowest in Qataris and nationals of the Levant. The findings call for further animal, vector, and human studies, such as studying the actual prevalence of the viral RNA in blood donors to assess the risk of viral transmission through blood donation and for a better characterization of the epidemiology of this infection in this part of the world.

Objectives: To evaluate and compare the performances of five commercial ELISA assays (EDI, AnshLabs, Dia.Pro, NovaTec, and Lionex) for detecting anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG. Methods: Seventy negative control samples (collected before the COVID-19 pandemic) and samples from 101 RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 patients (collected at different time points from symptom onset: ≤7, 8–14 and >14 days) were used to compare the sensitivity, specificity, agreement, and positive and negative predictive values of each assay with RT-PCR. A concordance assessment between the five assays was also conducted. Cross-reactivity with other HCoV, non-HCoV respiratory viruses, non-respiratory viruses, and nuclear antigens was investigated. Results: Lionex showed the highest specificity (98.6%; 95% CI 92.3–99.8), followed by EDI and Dia.Pro (97.1%; 95% CI 90.2–99.2), NovaTec (85.7%; 95% CI 75.7–92.1), then AnshLabs (75.7%; 95% CI 64.5–84.2). All ELISA kits cross-reacted with one anti-MERS IgG-positive sample, except Lionex. The sensitivity was low during the early stages of the disease but improved over time. After 14 days from symptom onset, Lionex and NovaTec showed the highest sensitivity at 87.9% (95% CI 72.7–95.2) and 86.4% (95% CI 78.5–91.7), respectively. The agreement with RT-PCR results based on Cohen’s kappa was as follows: Lionex (0.89) > NovaTec (0.70) > Dia.Pro (0.69) > AnshLabs (0.63) > EDI (0.55). Conclusion: The Lionex and NovaLisa IgG ELISA kits, demonstrated the best overall performance.

Abstract We developed a diabetes risk score using a novel analytical approach and tested its diagnostic performance to detect individuals at high risk of diabetes, by applying it to the Qatari population. A representative random sample of 5,000 Qataris selected at different time points was simulated using a diabetes mathematical model. Logistic regression was used to derive the score using age, sex, obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity as predictive variables. Performance diagnostics, validity, and potential yields of a diabetes testing program were evaluated. In 2020, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 and sensitivity and specificity were 79.0% and 66.8%, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were 36.1% and 93.0%, with 42.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2030, projected AUC was 0.78 and sensitivity and specificity were 77.5% and 65.8%. PPV and NPV were 36.8% and 92.0%, with 43.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2050, AUC was 0.76 and sensitivity and specificity were 74.4% and 64.5%. PPV and NPV were 40.4% and 88.7%, with 45.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. This model-based score demonstrated comparable performance to a data-derived score. The derived self-complete risk score provides an effective tool for initial diabetes screening, and for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs.