Characterizing trends and associations for hepatitis C virus antibody prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa: meta-regression analyses

Abstract This study characterized population-level trends and associations with hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody (Ab) prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Data source was the standardized and systematically gathered MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project Database. Random-effects univariable and multivariable meta-regressions were conducted. 2,621 HCV Ab prevalence measures on 49,824,108 individuals were analyzed. In the analysis including all populations, 71% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by at-risk population type. Compared to the general population, prevalence was 23-fold higher among people who inject drugs, and 14-fold higher among high-risk clinical populations. In the analysis including only the general population, 67% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by country/subregion. Compared to Afghanistan, prevalence was highest in Egypt and Pakistan. Prevalence in the general population was declining at a rate of 4% per year, but outside the general population, the decline was at only 1% per year. HCV Ab prevalence in MENA is declining rapidly, but this decline is largely occurring in the general population following introduction of blood and injection safety measures. The decline in populations at higher risk of exposure is slow and below the level needed to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.