1. Assessment of polygenic architecture and risk prediction based on common variants across fourteen cancers
- Author
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Montserrat Garcia-Closas, Ellen L. Goode, Mark M. Iles, Brian M. Wolpin, Stephen J. Chanock, Susan L. Slager, Li Hsu, Clare Turnbull, Ccfr, Michael Hoffmeister, Peter T. Campbell, Maria Teresa Landi, Paul D.P. Pharoah, Amber N. Hurson, Melissa L. Bondy, Roger L. Milne, Peter A. Kanetsky, Simon A. Gayther, Christopher A. Haiman, Nicola J. Camp, Mark A. Jenkins, Margaret Wrensch, Bcac, Ulrike Peters, Jill S. Barnholtz-Sloan, Richard S. Houlston, PanScan, Haoyu Zhang, Christopher I. Amos, Ben Kinnersley, GenoMEL, Florence Demenais, Rosalind A. Eeles, Katherine A. McGlynn, Practical, John K. Wiencke, Gicc, Katherine L. Nathanson, Stolzenberg-Solomon R, Brenda M. Birmann, Rayjean J. Hung, Donghui Li, David C. Whiteman, Ghislaine Scelo, Sonja I. Berndt, Alison P. Klein, Sarah V. Ward, Per Hall, D. Timothy Bishop, Tracy A. O'Mara, Kirsten B. Moysich, Corect, Laufey T. Amundadottir, Marjanka K. Schmidt, Ian Tomlinson, Ocac, Yan Zhang, Gloria M. Petersen, Ali Amin Al Olama, Puya Gharahkhani, Deborah J. Thompson, Paul Brennan, Douglas F. Easton, Celeste Leigh Pearce, InterLymph, Jacques Simard, Mark H. Greene, Zsofia Kote-Jarai, Nilanjan Chatterjee, Ecac, Marlene Danner Dalgaard, Mark P. Purdue, Beatrice Melin, Graham Casey, Rajesh Kumar, Jenny Chang-Claude, Thomas A. Sellers, Stephen B. Gruber, Beacon, James D. McKay, Tecac, Stephanie L. Schmit, Tom Grotmol, Kyriaki Michailidou, Immaculata De Vivo, Joellen M. Schildkraut, Eric J. Jacobs, Fredrik Wiklund, Amanda B. Spurdle, Nathaniel Rothman, Parichoy Pal Choudhury, Peter Kraft, Panc, Renal Cancer Gwas, Neil E. Caporaso, Joe Dennis, Matthew Law, Fredrick R. Schumacher, Harvey A. Risch, Stuart MacGregor, Andrew Berchuck, Ilcco, Oral Cancer Gwas, Zhang, Yan Dora [0000-0002-5302-3690], Hurson, Amber N. [0000-0001-7831-6660], Easton, Douglas F. [0000-0003-2444-3247], Milne, Roger L. [0000-0001-5764-7268], Simard, Jacques [0000-0001-6906-3390], Michailidou, Kyriaki [0000-0001-7065-1237], Dennis, Joe [0000-0003-4591-1214], Schmidt, Marjanka K. [0000-0002-2228-429X], Gharahkhani, Puya [0000-0002-4203-5952], Whiteman, David [0000-0003-2563-9559], Jenkins, Mark [0000-0002-8964-6160], Peters, Ulrike [0000-0001-5666-9318], Schmit, Stephanie L. [0000-0001-5931-1194], O’Mara, Tracy A. [0000-0002-5436-3232], Spurdle, Amanda B. [0000-0003-1337-7897], Thompson, Deborah J. [0000-0003-1465-5799], Tomlinson, Ian [0000-0003-3037-1470], Landi, Maria Teresa [0000-0003-4507-329X], Law, Matthew H. [0000-0002-4303-8821], Iles, Mark M. [0000-0002-2603-6509], Demenais, Florence [0000-0001-8361-0936], Kumar, Rajiv [0000-0002-6093-0395], MacGregor, Stuart [0000-0001-6731-8142], Bishop, D. Timothy [0000-0002-8752-8785], Houlston, Richard [0000-0002-5268-0242], Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill [0000-0001-6190-9304], Kinnersley, Ben [0000-0003-1783-6296], Amos, Christopher I. [0000-0002-8540-7023], Hung, Rayjean J. [0000-0002-4486-7496], Brennan, Paul [0000-0002-0518-8714], Birmann, Brenda M. [0000-0002-7550-5498], Camp, Nicola J. [0000-0002-4788-1998], Kraft, Peter [0000-0002-4472-8103], Pharoah, Paul D. P. [0000-0001-8494-732X], Gayther, Simon A. [0000-0001-7937-5443], Amundadottir, Laufey T. [0000-0003-1859-8971], Jacobs, Eric J. [0000-0002-8458-7659], Klein, Alison P. [0000-0003-2737-8399], Eeles, Rosalind A. [0000-0002-3698-6241], Schumacher, Fredrick R. [0000-0002-3073-7463], Greene, Mark H. [0000-0003-1852-9239], Kanetsky, Peter A. [0000-0002-5567-9618], Nathanson, Katherine L. [0000-0002-6740-0901], Wiklund, Fredrik [0000-0002-4623-0544], Chanock, Stephen J. [0000-0002-2324-3393], Garcia-Closas, Montserrat [0000-0003-1033-2650], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Hurson, Amber N [0000-0001-7831-6660], Easton, Douglas F [0000-0003-2444-3247], Milne, Roger L [0000-0001-5764-7268], Schmidt, Marjanka K [0000-0002-2228-429X], Schmit, Stephanie L [0000-0001-5931-1194], O'Mara, Tracy A [0000-0002-5436-3232], Spurdle, Amanda B [0000-0003-1337-7897], Thompson, Deborah J [0000-0003-1465-5799], Law, Matthew H [0000-0002-4303-8821], Iles, Mark M [0000-0002-2603-6509], Bishop, D Timothy [0000-0002-8752-8785], Amos, Christopher I [0000-0002-8540-7023], Hung, Rayjean J [0000-0002-4486-7496], Birmann, Brenda M [0000-0002-7550-5498], Camp, Nicola J [0000-0002-4788-1998], Pharoah, Paul DP [0000-0001-8494-732X], Gayther, Simon A [0000-0001-7937-5443], Amundadottir, Laufey T [0000-0003-1859-8971], Jacobs, Eric J [0000-0002-8458-7659], Klein, Alison P [0000-0003-2737-8399], Eeles, Rosalind A [0000-0002-3698-6241], Schumacher, Fredrick R [0000-0002-3073-7463], Greene, Mark H [0000-0003-1852-9239], Kanetsky, Peter A [0000-0002-5567-9618], Nathanson, Katherine L [0000-0002-6740-0901], and Chanock, Stephen J [0000-0002-2324-3393]
- Subjects
Male ,0301 basic medicine ,Oncology ,Multifactorial Inheritance ,45/43 ,General Physics and Astronomy ,Diseases ,Genome-wide association study ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,Neoplasms ,631/208/68 ,lcsh:Science ,Cancer genetics ,Multidisciplinary ,692/699 ,Incidence ,article ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Medical genetics ,Female ,Medical Genetics ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Science ,Biology ,Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide ,Risk Assessment ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,03 medical and health sciences ,Breast cancer ,SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being ,Internal medicine ,medicine ,Genetic predisposition ,Animals ,Humans ,Genetic Predisposition to Disease ,Lung cancer ,Genetic association ,Medicinsk genetik ,Cancer och onkologi ,Models, Genetic ,45 ,Cancer ,General Chemistry ,Heritability ,medicine.disease ,030104 developmental biology ,Sample size determination ,Relative risk ,Cancer and Oncology ,lcsh:Q ,Ovarian cancer ,Genome-Wide Association Study - Abstract
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have led to the identification of hundreds of susceptibility loci across cancers, but the impact of further studies remains uncertain. Here we analyse summary-level data from GWAS of European ancestry across fourteen cancer sites to estimate the number of common susceptibility variants (polygenicity) and underlying effect-size distribution. All cancers show a high degree of polygenicity, involving at a minimum of thousands of loci. We project that sample sizes required to explain 80% of GWAS heritability vary from 60,000 cases for testicular to over 1,000,000 cases for lung cancer. The maximum relative risk achievable for subjects at the 99th risk percentile of underlying polygenic risk scores (PRS), compared to average risk, ranges from 12 for testicular to 2.5 for ovarian cancer. We show that PRS have potential for risk stratification for cancers of breast, colon and prostate, but less so for others because of modest heritability and lower incidence., In cancer many gene variants may contribute to disease etiology, but the impact of a given gene variant may have varied effect size. Here, the authors analyse summary statistics of genome-wide association studies from fourteen cancers, and show the utility of polygenic risk scores may vary depending on cancer type.
- Published
- 2020