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Women with managerial careers are significantly less satisfied with their life than their male counterparts. Why? In a representative German panel dataset (GSOEP) we find biological constraints and substitutive mechanisms determining the subjective well-being of female managers. Women’s terminated fertility has a negative impact on women’s life satisfaction between the ages of 35 and 45, when managerial careers usually take off. Money and spare time can compensate for this biological difference. But to maintain an equivalent level of happiness, women need to be compensated by much more income for each hour of spare time given up than men do. So, in order to reach better gender equality in leadership positions, women must be either paid higher incomes (on average around 10%) or must be incentivized with more spare time than men. In the conclusion, we speculate on a new mix of carrots and sticks for advanced careers in order to boost female representation in leadership positions.

Available online 23 May 2019 Young adults in the transition from education to employment are vulnerable to employment insecurity. We explore trajectories of employment insecurity over six years after leaving education, and investigate their associations with sociodemographic predictors, self-reported health and life satisfaction. Based on a sample of 2752 education leavers from a representative longitudinal dataset in Germany, we identify five distinct trajectories via latent class growth analysis: (1) 'smooth transition' (43%) signifies a quick entrance into permanent employment (2) 'inhibited transition' (23%) comprises repeated temporary employment (3) 'stepping stone' (21%) indicates a transition from temporary to permanent employment (4) long-term NEET' (not in education, employment or training, 10%) describes persistent exclusion and (5) 'dropout' (3%) captures transitions from permanent employment to NEET status and/or temporary employment. Low education and migration background are associated with long-term NEET status. Both low education and high education are associated with inhibited transitions. Young women face fewer difficulties after leaving education than men, but parenthood increases women's likelihood of insecure trajectories. Long-term NEET status and inhibited transitions are associated with persistently lower health and life satisfaction. We find deteriorating health among long-term NEETs and the stepping stone trajectory and deteriorating life satisfaction for long-term NEETs, the inhibited transition and dropouts.

First-generation immigrants in Germany are surprisingly satisfied with their life. We test to what extent selection, adaptation, or resilience explains their comparatively high level of subjective well-being (SWB). Using Panel data from 1984-2014, we run simultaneous probit and growth curve models and identify competing mechanisms of positive integration. We find mixed evidence for health selection: First-generation immigrants are younger but overall less healthy than Germans. Irrespective of selectivity, significant evidence supports purposive adaptation: First-generation immigrants maintain high levels of happiness by using the local German population as a benchmark only to evaluate their economic situation but not to evaluate their family life. Thus, there is economic but not socio-cultural adaptation. Finally, we find some evidence of higher social but not economic resilience among first-generation immigrants than among Germans. We speculate what this implies for family unification for migrants.

In line with the theory of supplier-induced demand, an increased physician density often goes along with a higher utilization of medical services, including dental services. This study aimed to assess whether dentist density and self-employment are related to dental care use, and whether these relationships are moderated by patients' educational attainment. We used data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) from over 20,000 respondents, 50 + yr of age, in 13 countries. We conducted multilevel logistic regressions with probability and type of dental treatment on individual education, country-specific dentist density, and dentist remuneration, and their cross-level interaction. Patients with a high educational level were more likely to report a dentist visit (OR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.912-2.305) and to receive preventive care (OR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.697-2.043) than those with a low educational level (reference category). Cross-level interaction effects indicated that high dentist density decreases dental care utilization differences between patients with high (OR = 0.996, 95% CI: 0.993-0.999), medium (OR = 0.995, 95% CI: 0.991-0.999), and low education levels. This was also true for prevention use (OR = 0.996, 95% CI: 0.992-0.999 for patients with a high education level, and OR = 0.996, 95% CI: 0.993-1.000 for patients with a medium education level). The findings suggest that although dentist density is positively associated with dental care utilization, patients have differing susceptibilities to dental care supply.

Can governments increase tax compliance by rewarding honest taxpayers? We conducted a controlled laboratory experiment comparing tax compliance under a “deterrence” baseline with tax compliance under two “reward” treatments: a “donation” treatment giving taxpayers a say in the spending purposes of their payments and a “lucky” treatment giving taxpayers the (highly unlikely) chance of winning a lottery. The reward treatments significantly affected tax behaviour but not in a straightforward manner. Although female participants altered their behaviour as expected and complied somewhat more, men strongly reacted in the opposite manner: they evaded a much higher percentage of taxes than under the baseline. Apparently, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to boost tax compliance.

Happiness research is mushrooming. National rankings of the happiest populations and insights into which factors boost happiness are in demand as much from a growing international scientific community as from policy makers and the general public. This is probably no accident in post-modern times. The concept is down-to-earth, innocent, and non-ideological, but promising and in everyone’s vocabulary rut. Happiness may refer to either shortterm emotional states, or long-term cognitive evaluations (Ryff 1989; Veenhoven 1996a, b; Kahneman 2000). Yet, it always rests on the individual capacity to distinguish between good and bad environmental stimuli, and it triggers behavioral responses. In the academic context, happiness has a long philosophical tradition, a biological core, a close match with economics, psychological standing, sociological significance, and political implications; this is way more than other concepts can offer. Thus, it is no coincidence that researchers from all of these areas contribute to the ‘‘new science of happiness’’ (Layard 2005), helping step by step to unlock the mysteries of ‘‘psychological wealth’’ (Diener and Biswas-Diener 2008). Frey (2008) even attests that happiness research has revolutionary potential. This is certainly true for economics, if satisfaction ratings become a gold standard for measuring individual utility. In a broader sense, this new science promotes the subjective measurements of well-being, and consequently shifts the power from the expert (i.e. the scientist) to the layperson. The normative implications are far reaching. In the tradition of Bentham, the ‘‘new utilitarianism’’ advocates the maximization of individual happiness as the guiding principle for public policy (Veenhoven 2004). Just imagine: happy patients in public health care, happy pupils in public schools, and happy unemployed labor in state-subsidized work schemes. Yet, such ambitious and happy outlooks need solid groundwork in research. The last two decades have increased knowledge about happiness immensely. To start with, we know today that survey methods are a valid and reliable source for measuring ‘‘life

In a long-term prospective cohort study we try to assess selective and protective impacts of early retirement on life expectancy. The results are based on the members of a compulsory German health insurance fund (Gmünder Ersatzkasse). We analyzed 88,399 men and 41,276 women who retired between the ages of 50 and 65 from January 1990 to December 2004. Our main outcome measures are hazard ratios for death adjusted for age, sex, marital and socioeconomic status, year of observation, age at retirement, hospitalization, and form of retirement scheme. We found a significantly higher mortality risk among pensioners with reduced earning capacities than among old-age pensioners who either left the labor market between the ages of 56 and 60 or between 61 and 65. The youngest male and female pensioners who left the labor market between the ages of 51 and 55 because of their reduced earning capacity faced the highest mortality risk. But healthy people who retire early do not experience shorter long-term survival than those who retire late. On the contrary, if we take into consideration the amount of days spent in hospital during the last 2 years prior to retirement, early retirement in fact lowers mortality risks significantly by 12% for men and by 23% for women. Thus with respect to mortality, early retirement reflects both selective and protective processes. First of all, individuals with poor health and lower survival chances are filtered out of the labor market. However, healthy pensioners may be protected during retirement. For the former, early retirement is a necessity, for the latter it is an asset. Pension reformers should take health differentials into consideration when cutting back pension programs and increasing retirement age.

Over the 19902000 decade happiness in China plummeted despite massive improvement in material living standards. This finding contradicts the notion that income growth at low living standards leads to gains, not losses, in happiness. We explain this puzzle by drawing on a specific version of relative deprivation theory, the concept of frustrated achievers.ʺ Our major finding is that income inequality in China became increasingly skewed towards the upper income strata, so that related to the average income the financial position of most Chinese worsened. Consequently, financial dissatisfaction rose and became an increasingly important factor in depressing happiness. Other negative feelings emerging with rapid transitions, such as anomie and disaffection, show a less depressive effect on Chinese happiness. We conclude with some speculations about the applicability of our findings to transition economies in general. Over the 19902000 decade happiness in China plummeted despite massive improvement in material living standards. This finding contradicts the notion that income growth at low living standards leads to gains, not losses, in happiness. We explain this puzzle by drawing on a specific version of relative deprivation theory, the concept of frustrated achievers.ʺ Our major finding is that income inequality in China became increasingly skewed towards the upper income strata, so that related to the average income the financial position of most Chinese worsened. Consequently, financial dissatisfaction rose and became an increasingly important factor in depressing happiness. Other negative feelings emerging with rapid transitions, such as anomie and disaffection, show a less depressive effect on Chinese happiness. We conclude with some speculations about the applicability of our findings to transition economies in general.

Die vorliegende prospektive Langsschnittstudie beschreibt und erkundet den Einfluss der demografischen Entwicklung und politischer Reformen auf das zunehmende Risiko, mit einer psychischen Storung in ein Krankenhaus eingewiesen zu werden. Die statistische Analyse basiert auf individuellen Leistungsdaten aller 50-jahrigen und alteren Versicherten der Gmunder Ersatzkasse von 1993 bis 2003 (n = 453 609). Ereignisanalysen zeigen keinen linearen, sondern einen u-formigen Zusammenhang zwischen dem Alter und dem Risiko einer akut-stationaren Einweisung. Der Alterseffekt sinkt zudem signifikant, wenn auch die Zahl vergangener Krankenhausaufenthalte, die zeitliche Nahe zum Tod und der Familienstand im statistischen Modell berucksichtigt werden. Robust steigt dagegen die Zahl psychischer Erkrankungen als Nebendiagnose seit der verbindlichen Dokumentation und Datenubermittlung nach § 301 SGB V und seit dem Beschluss zur Einfuhrung der DRG-Vergutung in 2000. Da das Risiko einer akut-stationaren Behandlung von psychischen Nebendiagnosen am starksten in somatischen und nicht in psychiatrischen Kliniken zunimmt, vermuten wir einen ‚Up-grading’-Effekt. The present prospective longitudinal study describes and explores the impact of demographic change and political reforms on the growing risk of suffering from mental disorders and subsequent hospitalization. The statistical analysis is based on all insured individuals who were 50 years and older during the years 1993 to 2003 (n = 453 609) from a statutory sickness fund, the Gmunder Ersatzkasse. Event-history analyses show no linear but a rather u-shaped relationship between age and the risk to be given in-patient treatment for mental disorders. However, the age effect shrinks significantly when the number of previous hospital stays, the proximity to death, and the marital status are statistically controlled. On the other hand, the number of psychic disorders as a minor diagnosis has grown robustly after the legal requirement for fully documenting hospital cases according to § 301 SGB V and after the legal decision to introduce DRG refunding in 2000. Since the risk of in-hospital treatment of a psychic minor diagnosis increases most in somatic and not in psychiatric clinics, we suspect an up-grading effect.

In this article, we analyze how the marital biography is affecting mortality in Germany today (N = 12,484). We find support for temporal selection into marriage for both genders, but the effect is stronger for men. In addition, protection through marriage results from long-term accumulation of survival advantages and from the attenuation of higher mortality risks that occur immediately after a transition into or out of a marriage. Moreover, women are more likely to keep survival advantages from previous marriages and to forget about survival disadvantages from divorces and widowhood. Key Words: event history analysis, life course, marital history, marriage, mortality, selectivity. In 1830, Benoisten de Chateauneuf observed a difference in life expectancy between married and unmarried people. Since then, numerous studies have confirmed this result within many countries (Cheung, 2000; Hemstrom, 1996; Hu & Goldman, 1990; Klein, 1993; Lillard & Waite, 1995). Researchers hold two distinct processes responsible for such disparities. The first process is selection into marriage. Various studies have shown that those who find a partner on the marriage market are healthier than those who remain unmarried (Goldman, 1993; Goldman, Korenman, & Weinstein, 1995). The second process refers to the protective mechanism of marriage: Being married provides emotional support, constrains risk-taking behavior, stimulates a healthy lifestyle, provides additional resources, buffers critical experiences, and partly replaces professional health care. Both explanations are highly plausible, but they do not capture an important element of today's family biographies. Men and women are much more likely today to move into and out of different unions over the life course than they were 50 years ago. Most people live without a partner for extensive periods of their adult lives (Settles, 1999). Marital timing patterns influence the wealth of individuals (Wilmoth & Koso, 2002), but what about their effect on health and mortality? Do married men and women preserve their survival advantage over singles, divorced persons, widowers, and widows over their entire life spans? Is a marriage at the age of 40 as protective as a marriage at the age of 20? Is being married for 20 years twice as protective as being married for 10 years? Does a marriage after a previous divorce prolong one's life expectancy by more time than a marriage after a previous widowhood? In this article, we examine the influence of marital changes on mortality throughout the life course. A growing body of literature suggests that early life events (e.g., Barker, 1998; Doblhammer & Vaupel, 2001; Elo & Preston, 1992) and midlife conditions (e.g., Hart, Smith, & Blane, 1998; Manton, Stallard, & Corder, 1997) are important determinants of mortality later in life. All of these studies focus on single life events, but they rarely analyze the consequences of these events. In addition, they often neglect marriage as a factor. In this article, we trace people over long periods of time and focus on key events that shape their marital biographies. Analyzing the chronology of these events should help us to better understand when and why married people have higher life expectancies than do divorced, widowed, or single people. We distinguish four patterns of causation: Timing: The effect of marital transitions may be different if they occur at certain critical junctures of the life course. Accumulation: Some marital states may have positive or negative effects on mortality that accumulate over time. Attenuation: Some marital states may have positive or negative effects on mortality that are lost over time. Sequencing: Some events may have a varying effect on mortality depending on the sequence in which they occur. In this article, we first map the research background of marital transitions and mortality differences. …

Seit mehr als 200 Jahren ist der lebensverlangernde Effekt der Ehe bekannt. Heutige Forschungen unterscheiden zwischen protektiven und selektiven Prozessen, die den Zusammenhang von Familienstand und Mortalitat erklaren. Ubersehen wird aber, dass heutige Familienbiographien nicht durch einen Familienstand gespragt, sondern durch verschiedene Wechsel, Ubergange und Passagen charakterisiert sind. Ziel unserer Studie ist es, den Einfluss der Familienbiographie auf die Mortalitat auszuloten. Ein Vergleich zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland testet, ob und wie historische Ereignisse diesen Zusammenhang beeinflussen. Die Analyse basiert auf Daten des Sozio-okonomischen Panel. Die protektive Wirkung einer Ehe kumuliert uber die Jahre. Es zeigt sich auserdem, dass jede Anderung des Familienstandes das Mortalitatsrisiko zunachst erhoht. Das positive Ereignis einer Heirat uberkompensiert aber diesen Effekt. Von negativen Ereignissen (Scheidung, Verwitwung) erholen sich dagegen Menschen im Zeitverlauf. In Ostdeutschland ist die Bedeutung der Familienbiographie trotz der Wende nicht geringer als im Westen.

The consequences of population ageing for the public health care system and health care costs may be less severe than is commonly assumed. Hospital discharge data from Germany's largest health insurer (AOK) show that the cost of caring for patients during their last year of life makes up a large part of total health expenditures. And this last year of life is less costly if patients die at an advanced age. As a multivariate analysis reveals, oldest old patients as a rule receive less costly treatment than younger patients for the same illness. Moreover, this pattern is more pronounced for elderly women than for elderly men. These findings suggest that health care is informally rationed according to the age and sex of the patient. The data also indicate that there may be more age-related rationing going on in Germany than in the United States. Future research should investigate the national, institutional, and individual factors behind health care rationing. In this paper, I discuss the physician's professional decision as one plausible determinant.

Germany has created and maintained the world's oldest universal health insurance system based on solidarity and pay-as-you-go principles. Since 1883, mandatory health insurance has been steadily extended to new population groups. Benefits have increased and become more comprehensive. Since 1970, nearly 90 percent of the total population have been members of a statutory sickness fund; the remainder are privately insured. In 1995, Germany was the first country in the world to implement statutory long-term care insurance. Today, despite cost containment policies, the total expenditure on health care, mainly financed through the contributions of employers and employees, is 11.6 percent of GDP. The hospital sector, a high number of physicians per capita, and high utilization rates are the main cost drivers. Nevertheless, the German health care system appears quite robust. Empirical findings reveal that medical progress and demographic aging will not necessarily increase health care expenditures. Keywords: health care; health professions; life expectancy; social policy

Parental preferences for the sex of children are a prominent subject of study in some Asian and African countries where sex- selective behavior has led to skewed sex-ratios. In Europe and North America by contrast cross-sectional data does not reveal any clear pattern of sex preferences. However this does not mean that people are indifferent to the sex of their children. Taking a longitudinal perspective this paper shows how sex preferences in Germany have changed over time. Based on German cohort data event-history models reveal a significant boy preference among women born in the German Reich before 1910. This pattern vanishes among cohorts 10 years younger. After World War II West-German women never developed a clear sex preference. East-German women by contrast show a significant preference for girls. This pattern is absorbed by the pro-family policy that was launched in the German Democratic Republic during the 1970s. In conclusion the paper argues that the process of modernization does not neutralize sex preferences as is often assumed. Rather it may give rise to diverging sex preferences depending on the specific type of welfare regime. (authors)

Does consumption make people happy? The standard answer from economics is: Yes! By assumption, consumers consume because that increases their utility. However, empirical studies of US consumer behavior reveal striking trends in conspicuous and harmful consumption. New findings in happiness research explain when consumption makes people unhappy and why unhappy consumers cannot easily stop their malconsumption. Researchers also identify escape routes both at the individual and the societal level. The chapter concludes with a discussion of institutional implications.

If you ask a chef, a physician, or a teacher the question: “Is more always better,” they will probably answer: “No”. Of course, it depends on the dish you are cooking, the illness you are curing, and the subject you are teaching. But these professionals know when additional ingredients spoil the dish, additional treatment harms the patient, and additional learning material frustrates the student. If you put the same question to an economist or a consumer, though, it is less clear what the answer will be.

Families produce health, but changing family structures are also held responsible for negative health outcomes in today’s societies. In this paper we analyse how the health of young children in Germany may change when parents separate. Data from the GSOEP show that children living in cohabiting families are not generally more healthy than children with separated parents. In fact, the risk to suffer from health disorders is significantly lower among children whose mothers have separated than among children whose mothers are married. However, children with married mothers have a higher birth weight and less often a BMI that deviates from the norm than children whose mothers are divorced. In a longitudinal analysis we control for health selection and find a negative causal impact of a separation or divorce on pre-clinical health aspects of young children. We also find that the mental and intellectual capacities of mothers, not their financial situation, can help to buffer the negative health impact of a separation in Germany. Against the background of rising numbers of single mothers we finally discuss the current and future implications of these findings.

How happy are first-generation immigrants in Germany today? How do patterns of formal or informal discrimination affect their subjective life satisfaction? What is the effect of material and immaterial resources? What are the relevant standardsfor the evaluation of happiness? And how does the level of subjective well-being change over time? To answer these questions,we use longitudinal data of the German Socio-Economic Panel and a multilevel approach. Our findings show that the subjective well-being of immigrants has declined continuously between 1984 and 2008. Social discrimination has a negative effect on subjective wellbeing. Yet, the major influence comes from the ownership and control of resources- as inthe domestic population. Immigrants use different social and temporal reference scales to evaluate their happiness. While household income is usually compared to local Germans, the ethnic community is the standard reference for evaluating social and health resources. The most important reference point, however, is the immigrant's individual past. Yet, the naturalization of the immigrant greatly reduces the significance of this reference.

Does happiness vary with age? The evidence is inconclusive. Some studies show happiness to increase with age (Diener et al. 1999; Argyle 2001). Others hold that the association is U-shaped with either highest depression rates (Mroczek and Christian, 1998; Blanchflower and Oswald, 2008) or highest happiness levels occurring during middle age (Easterlin, 2006). Current studies suffer from two shortcomings. Firstly, they do not control for three confounding time variables: age, period and cohort effects. Secondly, all empirical research lacks a theoretical explanation as to why age affects happiness. The purpose of our analysis is to contribute to closing both of these research gaps. A social investment model frames the dynamics of happiness across the life-span. The empirical test draws on West German panel data that followed individuals from 1984 to 2005. Descriptive analysis shows a cubic age function with the lowest level at middle age. However, hierarchical three-level variance component models (Rabe-Hesketh and Skrondal, 2005), find significant differences across pre-war and post-war cohorts, baby boomers and offspring of the baby bust as well as deviations during reunification. Yet, cohort and period effects account for less than 10% of the variance. (Un)happiness in midlife is more strongly determined by gender-specific occasional influences and individual characteristics. Both define objective and subjective returns of professional and personal life investments. These social investment decisions date back to early adulthood and bear a high risk of failure during midlife. Unforeseen consequences and long-term private and professional commitments make it costly to adjust, but at the same time new investments may pay off in a pro-longed future. This dilemma turns many middle-aged people into "frustrated achievers".

Forecasts are always wrong. Still, they paint potential future scenarios and provide a platform for policy decisions today. This is what gives forecast such a high salience in political debates about the effects of population aging. The paper aims at gauging the effect of population aging on hospital expenses in Germany. We use a probabilistic forecast model comprising a stochastic demographic component that exploits historical mortality trends, a stochastic cost component based on typical hospital costs over the life-course, and a quality measure of medical progress, which builds on past advances in hospital treatment. Three different scenarios are constructing, yielding 3 important results. Firstly, there is an increase in overall hospital expenditure until the German baby boomers will die out (2040 to 2050). Secondly, the increase is comparably moderate because the average individual costs are likely to decline as elderly health improves and since medical progress has an ambiguous influence on hospital expenditures. Finally, the cost increase varies significantly by gender and disease.

Forecasts are always wrong. Still, they paint potential future scenarios and provide a platform for policy decisions today. This is what gives forecast such a high salience in political debates about the effects of population aging. The paper aims at gauging the effect of population aging on hospital expenses in Germany. We use a probabilistic forecast model comprising a stochastic demographic component that exploits historical mortality trends, a stochastic cost component based on typical hospital costs over the life-course, and a quality measure of medical progress, which builds on past advances in hospital treatment. Three different scenarios are constructing, yielding 3 important results. Firstly, there is an increase in overall hospital expenditure until the German baby boomers will die out (2040 to 2050). Secondly, the increase is comparably moderate because the average individual costs are likely to decline as elderly health improves and since medical progress has an ambiguous influence on hospital expenditures. Finally, the cost increase varies significantly by gender and disease.

Schon 1830 entdeckte Benoisten de Chateauneuf, dass verheiratete Menschen signifikant langer leben als nicht verheiratete. Seit dem ist der Befund in zahlreichen Studien und Landern immer wieder bestatigt worden (Cheung 2000; Hemstrom 1996; Lillard & Waite 1995; Klein 1993; Hu & Goldman 1990). Zwei Prozesse werden fur diesen robusten Befund verantwortlich gemacht. Der erste Prozess verweist auf die Selektion von Ehepartnern. Verschiedene Studien haben belegt, dass Menschen, die auf dem Heiratsmarkt erfolgreich sind, auch gesunder sind (Goldman 1993; Goldman, Korenman, Weinstein 1995). Der zweite Prozess zielt auf die Schutzmechanismen, die sich in einer Ehe entwickeln konnen. Verheiratet zu sein, liefert den Partnern emotionale Unterstutzung, begrenzt ihre Neigung zu riskantem Verhalten, regt einen gesunderen Lebensstil an, schafft zusatzliche Ressourcen, puffert kritische Lebenserfahrungen und ersetzt partiell medizinische Versorgung und Pflege.

Most studies dealing with the impact of marriage on mortality treat being married as a once-and-for-all status. However, multiple life changes in marital status characterize the modern life course. The purpose of this paper is to analyze how the timing of these changes affect mortality in Germany. Longitudinal data show that the positive effects of getting married accumulate over long periods of time, while the negative effect of divorce and widowhood attenuates after some time. We also find that the effect of any marital status wears out with an individual’s age and differs between cohorts, which is partly due to selectivity. Both temporal mechanism and selection processes demonstrate the plasticity of the marital biography and its variable effect on mortality.

The consequences of population ageing for the health care system and health care costs may be less severe than is commonly assumed. Hospital discharge data from Germany’s largest health insurer (AOK) show that the care of patients during their last year of life is less costly if they die at an advanced age. As a multivariate analysis reveals, oldest old patients receive less costly treatment for the same illness than younger patients. Health care is informally rationed according to the age of the patient. The data also indicate that age-related rationing may be more pronounced in Germany than in the United States. (AUTHOR)

Parental preferences for the sex of children are a prominent subject of study in some Asian and African countries where sex-selective behavior has led to skewed sex-ratios. In Europe or North-America, by contrast, cross-sectional data does not reveal any clear pattern of sex-preferences. However, this does not mean that people are indifferent to the sex of their children. Taking a longitudinal perspective, this paper shows how sex-preferences in Germany have changed over time and in response to changes in welfare regime. Based on German cohort data, event-history models reveal a significant boy-preference among women born before 1910 during the German Reich. After the world war II, women in West-Germany never developed a clear sex-preference, but cohorts born in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) show a significant preference for girls. This pattern is absorbed by the pro-family policy that was launched by the socialist regime during the seventies. In conclusion, the paper argues that the process of modernization does not neutralize sex-preferences as is often assumed. Rather, it may give rise to diverging sex-preferences depending on the specific type of welfare regime. (AUTHOR)

Nicht die Lebensorganisation in ihren aktuellen Verastelungen, sondern ihre implizit angenommene Prozeshaftigkeit ist Gegenstand des folgenden Kapitels. Denn nur im zeitlichen Ablauf sind explorative Verhaltensanderungen, exploitative Fortsetzungen oder Ausstiegsstrategien direkt zu beobachten. Auch lassen sich lebenslaufspezifische und sozialstrukturelle Einflusse anhand von Langsschnittdaten in ihrer zeitlichen Abfolge schatzen. Die Zusammenhange, die in den ersten zehn Bruckenhypothesen formuliert sind, werden darum noch einmal uber die Zeit untersucht. Zugleich wird die analytische Perspektive um Kohorteneffekte (Hypothese 11) und einen Periodeneinflus (Hypothese 12) erweitert.

Anhand der aktuellen Forschungsresultate last sich die Frage nach der Lebensorganisation alterer Menschen nicht einfach beantworten. Alle Autoren thematisieren das Altern oder soziale Ungleichheit in komplexen Mehrebenenmodellen, prufen ihren Gegenstand aber nur auf einer Ebene. Quantitative Analysen beziehen sich auf makrosoziale Phanomene. Ihre Makro-Makro-Erklarungen machen korrelative Zusammenhange plausibel, aber identifizieren letztlich keine kausalen Mechanismen. Qualitative Arbeiten verharren auf der Ebene individueller Handlungen. Ihre Mikro-MikroDarstellungen entdecken individuelle Ursachen fur ein soziales Verhalten, geben aber keinen Hinweis auf deren soziale Relevanz. Fur eine wissenschaftliche Prognose ist aber sowohl die Kenntnis einfacher Mechanismen als auch die Einschatzung ihrer sozialen Grosenordnung von zentraler Bedeutung.

Im Querschnitt wird zunachst ein ausdifferenziertes und fur die Bundesrepublik reprasentatives Verhaltensbild heute alter Menschen gezeichnet. Ausgeblendet bleiben hierbei die ungleichen, systembedingten Alternsverlaufe und besonderen Lebenssituationen der Ostdeutschen. Ein Ost-West-Vergleich setzt letztlich ein feineres, makrotheoretisches Raster voraus, das aber fur eine Zukunftsprognose an Bedeutung verliert.