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PR, IFPRI3; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; IFPRIOA; ISI, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies, Aspirations influence future-oriented behavior and ensuing outcomes but they may also fail to do so when the aspired-to-status is far away from the current one. Theoretical predictions suggest an inverted U-shaped relationship between this aspiration gap and the effort to achieve what is aspired to. Aspirations that are ahead but not too far ahead of the current status serve as the best incentives for investments. We examine the income aspiration gap of smallholder households and relate it to livestock in a pastoral setting in Northern Kenya. Our focus on livestock is guided by the burgeoning recognition of livestock as an investment and saving conduit for many households in pastoral communities in developing nations. Employing different empirical strategies including parametric and semi-parametric techniques, we find livestock to be increasing with aspirations up to a threshold, from which it then declines to lead to an aspiration failure. Delving into livestock heterogeneity, we uncover evidence that cattle and poultry respond more to the aspiration gap than small ruminants such as sheep and goats. Different U-shaped tests confirm this relationship, bolstering the evidence of an aspiration failure. These findings are robust to the inclusion of relevant controls, truncations at zero, and different variable transformations. We also show that the findings are unlikely to be driven by unobserved heterogeneity. Additionally, we find that internal locus of control, that is the degree to which individuals believe they control outcomes in their lives is associated with livestock investments.

PR, IFPRI5, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies, Aspirations have been shown to positively influence future-oriented behavior and ensuing outcomes. But they may also fail to do so when the aspired-to-status is too far away from the current one. Theoretical predictions suggest an inverted U-shaped relationship between this aspiration gap and the effort to achieve what is aspired to. Aspirations that are ahead but not too far ahead of the current status serve as the best incentives for investments. We examine the income aspiration gap of smallholder households and relate it to livestock in a pastoral setting in Northern Kenya. Our focus on livestock is guided by the burgeoning recognition of livestock as an investment and saving conduit for many households in pastoral communities in developing nations. Employing different empirical strategies including parametric and semiparametric techniques, we find livestock to be increasing with aspirations up to a threshold, from which it then declines leading to an aspiration failure. Different U-shaped tests confirm this relationship, bolstering the evidence of an aspiration failure. To unpack which livestock matters more relative to the others, we perform some heterogeneity analysis and found cattle to respond most to the aspiration gap. The findings are robust to the inclusion of relevant controls, truncations at zero and different variable transformations. We also show that the findings are unlikely to be driven by unobserved heterogeneity. A dive into mechanisms reveals that the internal locus of control, i.e. the degree to which individuals believe they control outcomes in their lives, decreases with the aspiration gap. Our findings have two implications: first, it reinforces previous claims of the role of psychological constraints on poverty reduction and rural development. More importantly, it has implications for the current debates and plans for boosting the development of the livestock sector in Africa as a pathway to overall economic development.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, DSGD, Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) is an invasive alien weed with detrimental effects on agricultural production, biodiversity, human and animal health, threating rural livelihoods in Asia and Africa. The problem emerged recently in the Kenyan Rift Valley, where it began to affect the landholdings of both agro-pastoralists and crop farmers. These vulnerable smallholders depend heavily on natural resources for their livelihoods. In this study, we assessed the severity of parthenium invasion and farmers’ management responses using a sample of 530 agro-pastoralists in Baringo County, Kenya, in 2019. We hypothesise that the implementation of existing management strategies depends on the state of parthenium invasion and household socio-economic characteristics. The prevalence and severity of parthenium invasion differed greatly among field plots. To control weeds, farmers resort to either hand weeding, the use of synthetic herbicides, or intensive tillage, sometimes in combination with mulching. A multivariate probit regression model shows that households’ characteristics determine the type of control strategies used as well as their complementarity and substitutability. Hand weeding is the most common option, adopted by almost 40% of farmers. The use of agrochemicals or soil-based control strategies appears to be related to knowledge and information characteristics such as access to extension services, membership in organisations and the educational level of household heads. While hand weeding and the use of synthetic herbicides depict significant substitutability, the latter strategy is limited to a few larger farms with market-oriented production. As parthenium invasion continues, policies need to improve farmer awareness and access to knowledge to enable pro-poor and environmentally sustainable control of parthenium on smallholder farms.

PR, IFPRI3; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; ISI, DSGD, This study assesses the extent of COVID-19-related food insecurity in Kenya, Tanzania, and Namibia. Using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, we measure food insecurity in various dimensions and document several food access disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic between April and July 2020. Furthermore, we assess the association of COVID-19 countermeasures with the adoption of various strategies in line with the coping strategies index. We rely on a unique phone survey that followed households who participated in an earlier field-based survey. First, through Ordinary Least-Squares and Probit regressions, we show a strong and statistically significant association between COVID-19 countermeasures and food access disruptions and food insecurity in each of the three countries. We then use a multivariate probit regression model to understand the use of the various coping strategies, including reducing food intake, increasing food search, and relying more on less nutritious foods. We provide evidence on the complementarities and trade-offs in using these coping strategies. COVID-19 and related lockdown measures coincided with a deleterious increase in food insecurity in rural Africa.