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Polarization and unexpected correlations between opinions on diverse topics (including in politics, culture and consumer choices) are an object of sustained attention. However, numerous theoretical models do not seem to convincingly explain these phenomena. This paper is motivated by a recent line of work, studying models where polarization can be explained in terms of biased assimilation and geometric interplay between opinions on various topics. The agent opinions are represented as unit vectors on a multidimensional sphere and updated according to geometric rules. In contrast to previous work, we focus on the classical opinion exchange setting, where the agents update their opinions in discrete time steps, with a pair of agents interacting randomly at every step. The opinions are updated according to an update rule belonging to a general class. Our findings are twofold. First, polarization appears to be ubiquitous in the class of models we study, requiring only relatively modest assumptions reflecting biased assimilation. Second, there is a qualitative difference between two-dimensional dynamics on the one hand, and three or more dimensions on the other. Accordingly, we prove almost sure polarization for a large class of update rules in two dimensions. Then, we prove polarization in three and more dimensions in more limited cases and try to shed light on central difficulties that are absent in two dimensions.

We study the problem of identifying a small set $k\sim n^\theta$, $0<\theta<1$, of infected individuals within a large population of size $n$ by testing groups of individuals simultaneously. All tests are conducted concurrently. The goal is to minimise the total number of tests required. In this paper we make the (realistic) assumption that tests are noisy, i.e.\ that a group that contains an infected individual may return a negative test result or one that does not contain an infected individual may return a positive test results with a certain probability. The noise need not be symmetric. We develop an algorithm called SPARC that correctly identifies the set of infected individuals up to $o(k)$ errors with high probability with the asymptotically minimum number of tests. Additionally, we develop an algorithm called SPEX that exactly identifies the set of infected individuals w.h.p. with a number of tests that matches the information-theoretic lower bound for the constant column design, a powerful and well-studied test design.

The pooled data problem asks to identify the unknown labels of a set of items from condensed measurements. More precisely, given $n$ items, assume that each item has a label in $\cbc{0,1,\ldots, d}$, encoded via the ground-truth $\SIGMA$. We call the pooled data problem sparse if the number of non-zero entries of $\SIGMA$ scales as $k \sim n^{\theta}$ for $\theta \in (0,1)$. The information that is revealed about $\SIGMA$ comes from pooled measurements, each indicating how many items of each label are contained in the pool. The most basic question is to design a pooling scheme that uses as few pools as possible, while reconstructing $\SIGMA$ with high probability. Variants of the problem and its combinatorial ramifications have been studied for at least 35 years. However, the study of the modern question of \emph{efficient} inference of the labels has suggested a statistical-to-computational gap of order $\log n$ in the minimum number of pools needed for theoretically possible versus efficient inference. In this article, we resolve the question whether this $\log n$-gap is artificial or of a fundamental nature by the design of an efficient algorithm, called \algoname, based upon a novel pooling scheme on a number of pools very close to the information-theoretic threshold.

In several branches of the social sciences and humanities, surveys based on standardized questionnaires are a prominent research tool. While there are a variety of ways to analyze the data, some standard procedures have become established. When those surveys want to analyze differences in the answer patterns of different groups (e.g., countries, gender, age, ...), these procedures can only be carried out in a meaningful way if there is measurement invariance, i.e., the measured construct has psychometric equivalence across groups. As recently raised as an open problem by Sauerwein et al. (2021), new evaluation methods that work in the absence of measurement invariance are needed. This paper promotes an unsupervised learning-based approach to such research data by proposing a procedure that works in three phases: data preparation, clustering of questionnaires, and measuring similarity based on the obtained clustering and the properties of each group. We generate synthetic data in three data sets, which allows us to compare our approach with the PCA approach under measurement invariance and under violated measurement invariance. As a main result, we obtain that the approach provides a natural comparison between groups and a natural description of the response patterns of the groups. Moreover, it can be safely applied to a wide variety of data sets, even in the absence of measurement invariance. Finally, this approach allows us to translate (violations of) measurement invariance into a meaningful measure of similarity.

In many studies, we want to determine the influence of certain features on a dependent variable. More specifically, we are interested in the strength of the influence -- i.e., is the feature relevant? -- and, if so, how the feature influences the dependent variable. Recently, data-driven approaches such as \emph{random forest regression} have found their way into applications (Boulesteix et al., 2012). These models allow to directly derive measures of feature importance, which are a natural indicator of the strength of the influence. For the relevant features, the correlation or rank correlation between the feature and the dependent variable has typically been used to determine the nature of the influence. More recent methods, some of which can also measure interactions between features, are based on a modeling approach. In particular, when machine learning models are used, SHAP scores are a recent and prominent method to determine these trends (Lundberg et al., 2017). In this paper, we introduce a novel notion of feature importance based on the well-studied Gram-Schmidt decorrelation method. Furthermore, we propose two estimators for identifying trends in the data using random forest regression, the so-called absolute and relative transversal rate. We empirically compare the properties of our estimators with those of well-established estimators on a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets.

In the pooled data problem we are given $n$ agents with hidden state bits, either $0$ or $1$. The hidden states are unknown and can be seen as the underlying ground truth $\sigma$. To uncover that ground truth, we are given a querying method that queries multiple agents at a time. Each query reports the sum of the states of the queried agents. Our goal is to learn the hidden state bits using as few queries as possible. So far, most literature deals with exact reconstruction of all hidden state bits. We study a more relaxed variant in which we allow a small fraction of agents to be classified incorrectly. This becomes particularly relevant in the noisy variant of the pooled data problem where the queries' results are subject to random noise. In this setting, we provide a doubly regular test design that assigns agents to queries. For this design we analyze an approximate reconstruction algorithm that estimates the hidden bits in a greedy fashion. We give a rigorous analysis of the algorithm's performance, its error probability, and its approximation quality. As a main technical novelty, our analysis is uniform in the degree of noise and the sparsity of $\sigma$. Finally, simulations back up our theoretical findings and provide strong empirical evidence that our algorithm works well for realistic sample sizes.

We study the group testing problem where the goal is to identify a set of k infected individuals carrying a rare disease within a population of size n, based on the outcomes of pooled tests which return positive whenever there is at least one infected individual in the tested group. We consider two different simple random procedures for assigning individuals to tests: the constant-column design and Bernoulli design. Our first set of results concerns the fundamental statistical limits. For the constant-column design, we give a new information-theoretic lower bound which implies that the proportion of correctly identifiable infected individuals undergoes a sharp "all-or-nothing" phase transition when the number of tests crosses a particular threshold. For the Bernoulli design, we determine the precise number of tests required to solve the associated detection problem (where the goal is to distinguish between a group testing instance and pure noise), improving both the upper and lower bounds of Truong, Aldridge, and Scarlett (2020). For both group testing models, we also study the power of computationally efficient (polynomial-time) inference procedures. We determine the precise number of tests required for the class of low-degree polynomial algorithms to solve the detection problem. This provides evidence for an inherent computational-statistical gap in both the detection and recovery problems at small sparsity levels. Notably, our evidence is contrary to that of Iliopoulos and Zadik (2021), who predicted the absence of a computational-statistical gap in the Bernoulli design., Comment: Accepted for presentation at the Conference on Learning Theory (COLT) 2022

We consider the so-called Independent Cascade Model for rumor spreading or epidemic processes popularized by Kempe et al.\ [2003]. In this model, a small subset of nodes from a network are the source of a rumor. In discrete time steps, each informed node "infects" each of its uninformed neighbors with probability $p$. While many facets of this process are studied in the literature, less is known about the inference problem: given a number of infected nodes in a network, can we learn the source of the rumor? In the context of epidemiology this problem is often referred to as patient zero problem. It belongs to a broader class of problems where the goal is to infer parameters of the underlying spreading model, see, e.g., Lokhov [NeurIPS'16] or Mastakouri et al. [NeurIPS'20]. In this work we present a maximum likelihood estimator for the rumor's source, given a snapshot of the process in terms of a set of active nodes $X$ after $t$ steps. Our results show that, for cycle-free graphs, the likelihood estimator undergoes a non-trivial phase transition as a function $t$. We provide a rigorous analysis for two prominent classes of acyclic network, namely $d$-regular trees and Galton-Watson trees, and verify empirically that our heuristics work well in various general networks.

We study the Consensus problem among $n$ agents, defined as follows. Initially, each agent holds one of two possible opinions. The goal is to reach a consensus configuration in which every agent shares the same opinion. To this end, agents randomly sample other agents and update their opinion according to a simple update function depending on the sampled opinions. We consider two communication models: the gossip model and a variant of the population model. In the gossip model, agents are activated in parallel, synchronous rounds. In the population model, one agent is activated after the other in a sequence of discrete time steps. For both models we analyze the following natural family of majority processes called $j$-Majority: when activated, every agent samples $j$ other agents uniformly at random (with replacement) and adopts the majority opinion among the sample (breaking ties uniformly at random). As our main result we show a hierarchy among majority protocols: $(j+1)$-Majority (for $j > 1$) converges stochastically faster than $j$-Majority for any initial opinion configuration. In our analysis we use Strassen's Theorem to prove the existence of a coupling. This gives an affirmative answer for the case of two opinions to an open question asked by Berenbrink et al. [2017].

In the pooled data problem we are given a set of $n$ agents, each of which holds a hidden state bit, either $0$ or $1$. A querying procedure returns for a query set the sum of the states of the queried agents. The goal is to reconstruct the states using as few queries as possible. In this paper we consider two noise models for the pooled data problem. In the noisy channel model, the result for each agent flips with a certain probability. In the noisy query model, each query result is subject to random Gaussian noise. Our results are twofold. First, we present and analyze for both error models a simple and efficient distributed algorithm that reconstructs the initial states in a greedy fashion. Our novel analysis pins down the range of error probabilities and distributions for which our algorithm reconstructs the exact initial states with high probability. Secondly, we present simulation results of our algorithm and compare its performance with approximate message passing (AMP) algorithms that are conjectured to be optimal in a number of related problems., Comment: Accepted at 42nd IEEE International Conference on Distributed Computing Systems (ICDCS)

We derive a sufficient condition for a sparse random matrix with given numbers of non-zero entries in the rows and columns having full row rank. The result covers both matrices over finite fields with independent non-zero entries and $\{0,1\}$-matrices over the rationals. The sufficient condition is generally necessary as well., Comment: 46 pages, 3 figures

We study optimal minimum degree conditions when an $n$-vertex graph $G$ contains an $r$-regular $r$-connected subgraph. We prove for $r$ fixed and $n$ large the condition to be $\delta(G) \ge \frac{n+r-2}{2}$ when $nr \equiv 0 \pmod 2$. This answers a question of M.~Kriesell.

Consider $n$ items, each of which is characterised by one of $d+1$ possible features in $\{0, \ldots, d\}$. We study the inference task of learning these types by queries on subsets, or pools, of the items that only reveal a form of coarsened information on the features - in our case, the sum of all the features in the pool. This is a realistic scenario in situations where one has memory or technical constraints in the data collection process, or where the data is subject to anonymisation. Related prominent problems are the quantitative group testing problem, of which it is a generalisation, as well as the compressed sensing problem, of which it is a special case. In the present article, we are interested in the minimum number of queries needed to efficiently infer the labels, if one of the features, say $0$, is dominant in the sense that the number $k$ of non-zero features among the items is much smaller than $n$. It is known that in this case, all features can be recovered in exponential time by using no more than $O(k)$ queries. However, so far, all \textit{efficient} inference algorithms required at least $\Omega(k\ln n)$ queries, and it was unknown whether this gap is artificial or of a fundamental nature. Here we show that indeed, the previous gap between the information-theoretic and computational bounds is not inherent to the problem by providing an efficient algorithm that succeeds with high probability and employs no more than $O(k)$ measurements. This also solves a long standing open question for the quantitative group testing problem.

The group testing problem asks for efficient pooling schemes and algorithms that allow to screen moderately large numbers of samples for rare infections. The goal is to accurately identify the infected samples while conducting the least possible number of tests. Exploring the use of techniques centred around the Belief Propagation message passing algorithm, we suggest a new test design that significantly increases the accuracy of the results. The new design comes with Belief Propagation as an efficient inference algorithm. Aiming for results on practical rather than asymptotic problem sizes, we conduct an experimental study.

Random factor graphs provide a powerful framework for the study of inference problems such as decoding problems or the stochastic block model. Information-theoretically the key quantity of interest is the mutual information between the observed factor graph and the underlying ground truth around which the factor graph was created; in the stochastic block model, this would be the planted partition. The mutual information gauges whether and how well the ground truth can be inferred from the observable data. For a very general model of random factor graphs we verify a formula for the mutual information predicted by physics techniques. As an application we prove a conjecture about low-density generator matrix codes from [Montanari: IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 2005]. Further applications include phase transitions of the stochastic block model and the mixed $k$-spin model from physics.

Recent advances in noiseless non-adaptive group testing have led to a precise asymptotic characterization of the number of tests required for high-probability recovery in the sublinear regime $k = n^{\theta}$ (with $\theta \in (0,1)$), with $n$ individuals among which $k$ are infected. However, the required number of tests may increase substantially under real-world practical constraints, notably including bounds on the maximum number $\Delta$ of tests an individual can be placed in, or the maximum number $\Gamma$ of individuals in a given test. While previous works have given recovery guarantees for these settings, significant gaps remain between the achievability and converse bounds. In this paper, we substantially or completely close several of the most prominent gaps. In the case of $\Delta$-divisible items, we show that the definite defectives (DD) algorithm coupled with a random regular design is asymptotically optimal in dense scaling regimes, and optimal to within a factor of $\eul$ more generally; we establish this by strengthening both the best known achievability and converse bounds. In the case of $\Gamma$-sized tests, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the regime $\Gamma = \Theta(1)$, and again establish a precise threshold proving the asymptotic optimality of SCOMP (a slight refinement of DD) equipped with a tailored pooling scheme. Finally, for each of these two settings, we provide near-optimal adaptive algorithms based on sequential splitting, and provably demonstrate gaps between the performance of optimal adaptive and non-adaptive algorithms., Comment: Accepted for publication at IEEE Transactions on Information Theory

In the model of randomly perturbed graphs we consider the union of a deterministic graph $\mathcal{G}_\alpha$ with minimum degree $\alpha n$ and the binomial random graph $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$. This model was introduced by Bohman, Frieze, and Martin and for Hamilton cycles their result bridges the gap between Dirac's theorem and the results by Pos\'{a} and Kor\v{s}unov on the threshold in $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$. In this note we extend this result in $\mathcal{G}_\alpha \cup \mathbb{G}(n,p)$ to sparser graphs with $\alpha=o(1)$. More precisely, for any $\varepsilon>0$ and $\alpha \colon \mathbb{N} \mapsto (0,1)$ we show that a.a.s. $\mathcal{G}_\alpha \cup \mathbb{G}(n,\beta /n)$ is Hamiltonian, where $\beta = -(6 + \varepsilon) \log(\alpha)$. If $\alpha>0$ is a fixed constant this gives the aforementioned result by Bohman, Frieze, and Martin and if $\alpha=O(1/n)$ the random part $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$ is sufficient for a Hamilton cycle. We also discuss embeddings of bounded degree trees and other spanning structures in this model, which lead to interesting questions on almost spanning embeddings into $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$.

We show that throughout the satisfiable phase the normalised number of satisfying assignments of a random $2$-SAT formula converges in probability to an expression predicted by the cavity method from statistical physics. The proof is based on showing that the Belief Propagation algorithm renders the correct marginal probability that a variable is set to `true' under a uniformly random satisfying assignment.

The group testing problem is concerned with identifying a small number $k \sim n^\theta$ for $\theta \in (0,1)$ of infected individuals in a large population of size $n$. At our disposal is a testing procedure that allows us to test groups of individuals. This paper considers two-stage designs where the test results of the first stage can inform the design of the second stage. We are interested in the minimum number of tests to recover the set of infected individuals w.h.p. Equipped with a novel algorithm for one-stage group testing from [Coja-Oghlan, Gebhard, Hahn-Klimroth \& Loick 2019], we propose a polynomial-time two-stage algorithm that matches the universal information-theoretic lower bound of group testing. This result improves on results from [M\'ezard \& Toninelli 2011] and resolves open problems prominently posed in [Aldridge, Johnson \& Scarlett 2019, Berger \& Levenshtein 2002, Damaschke \& Muhammad 2012].

In the group testing problem the aim is to identify a small set of $k\sim n^\theta$ infected individuals out of a population size $n$, $0<\theta<1$. We avail ourselves of a test procedure capable of testing groups of individuals, with the test returning a positive result iff at least one individual in the group is infected. The aim is to devise a test design with as few tests as possible so that the set of infected individuals can be identified correctly with high probability. We establish an explicit sharp information-theoretic/algorithmic phase transition $\minf$ for non-adaptive group testing, where all tests are conducted in parallel. Thus, with more than $\minf$ tests the infected individuals can be identified in polynomial time \whp, while learning the set of infected individuals is information-theoretically impossible with fewer tests. In addition, we develop an optimal adaptive scheme where the tests are conducted in two stages.

Guided by the theory of graph limits, we investigate a variant of the cut metric for limit objects of sequences of discrete probability distributions. Apart from establishing basic results, we introduce a natural operation called {\em pinning} on the space of limit objects and show how this operation yields a canonical cut metric approximation to a given probability distribution akin to the weak regularity lemma for graphons. We also establish the cut metric continuity of basic operations such as taking product measures.

In the pooled data problem the goal is to efficiently reconstruct a binary signal from additive measurements. Given a signal $\sigma \in \{ 0,1 \}^n$, we can query multiple entries at once and get the total number of non-zero entries in the query as a result. We assume that queries are time-consuming and therefore focus on the setting where all queries are executed in parallel. For the regime where the signal is sparse such that $ || \sigma ||_1 = o(n)$ our results are twofold: First, we propose and analyze a simple and efficient greedy reconstruction algorithm. Secondly, we derive a sharp information-theoretic threshold for the minimum number of queries required to reconstruct $\sigma$ with high probability. Our first result matches the performance guarantees of much more involved constructions (Karimi et al. 2019). Our second result extends a result of Alaoui et al. (2014) and Scarlett & Cevher (2017) who studied the pooled data problem for dense signals. Finally, our theoretical findings are complemented with empirical simulations. Our data not only confirm the information-theoretic thresholds but also hint at the practical applicability of our pooling scheme and the simple greedy reconstruction algorithm., Comment: Accepted at 36th IEEE International Parallel & Distributed Processing Symposium (IPDPS)

In the group testing problem we aim to identify a small number of infected individuals within a large population. We avail ourselves to a procedure that can test a group of multiple individuals, with the test result coming out positive iff at least one individual in the group is infected. With all tests conducted in parallel, what is the least number of tests required to identify the status of all individuals? In a recent test design [Aldridge et al.\ 2016] the individuals are assigned to test groups randomly, with every individual joining an equal number of groups. We pinpoint the sharp threshold for the number of tests required in this randomised design so that it is information-theoretically possible to infer the infection status of every individual. Moreover, we analyse two efficient inference algorithms. These results settle conjectures from [Aldridge et al.\ 2014, Johnson et al.\ 2019].