1. Cost-Effectiveness of Introducing Nuvaxovid to COVID-19 Vaccination in the United Kingdom: A Dynamic Transmission Model
- Author
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Clive Pritchard, Lucie Kutikova, Richard Pitman, Kira Zhi Hua Lai, Hadi Beyhaghi, IIana Gibbons, Amanda Erbe, Marija Živković-Gojović, Catherine Cosgrove, Mark Sculpher, and David Salisbury
- Subjects
SARS-CoV-2 ,COVID-19 vaccines ,dynamic transmission ,cost-effectiveness ,cost-utility ,COVID-19 ,Medicine - Abstract
Background/Objectives: Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 remains a key measure to control COVID-19. Nuvaxovid, a recombinant Matrix-M–adjuvanted protein-based vaccine, showed similar efficacy to mRNA vaccines in clinical trials and real-world studies, with lower rates of reactogenicity. Methods: To support decision making on UK vaccine selection, a population-based compartmental dynamic transmission model with a cost-utility component was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nuvaxovid compared with mRNA vaccines from a UK National Health Service perspective. The model was calibrated to official epidemiology statistics for mortality, incidence, and hospitalisation. Scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: In the probabilistic base case, a Nuvaxovid-only strategy provided total incremental cost savings of GBP 1,338,323 and 1558 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with an mRNA-only vaccination strategy. Cost savings were driven by reduced cold chain-related operational costs and vaccine wastage, while QALY gains were driven by potential differences in vaccine tolerability. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated an approximately 70% probability of cost-effectiveness with Nuvaxovid-only versus mRNA-only vaccination across most cost-effectiveness thresholds (up to GBP 300,000/QALY gained). Conclusions: Nuvaxovid remained dominant over mRNA vaccines in scenario analyses assessing vaccine efficacy waning, Nuvaxovid market shares, and the vaccinated population.
- Published
- 2025
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