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Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosols (AA) have changed radiation balance and regulated the regional climate at seasonal or longer time scales. Based on station observations, reanalyses and satellite observations, this study examines how anthropogenic forcings affect surface temperature and strongly regulate the regional climate at a diurnal time scale over the North China plains (NCP) in July and August. As AA cooling is dominant in the daytime over low-lying plains, it leads to a cooler-day-warmer-night temperature trend that decreases the diurnal temperature range over NCP but increases the thermal contrast between NCP and its west highlands. In response to the daytime cooling, the weakened vertical thermal contrast decreases the boundary-layer turbulent mixing in the daytime and reduces friction to low-level winds, which leads to anomalous southerlies at 2000 LST over NCP. In contrast, nighttime warming results in anomalous northerlies at 0200 LST. On the other hand, in response to the enlarged horizontal thermal contrast, the stronger mountain-plain circulation helps to intensify low-level ascent over the plains at 0200 LST. These human-induced changes in the diurnal variation of regional circulations are conducive to the increased moisture convergence at 2000 and 0200 LST over NCP. The nighttime proportion of precipitation accordingly exhibits an increasing trend over NCP, though the seasonal precipitation decreases because of the weakened monsoon background. These findings highlight that the diurnal cycle of regional circulations can express a strong dynamic response to the radiation effect of anthropogenic forcings and thus affect the long-term change in regional climate.

This study investigates the diurnal cycles of convective activities and low-level winds with emphasis on their interactions during the East Asian summer monsoon. We categorize atmospheric convection states using satellite-derived cloud regimes and group southerly monsoon flows with different characteristics of diurnal cycles, and found that they are closely related to each other. Over South China, deep convection and associated cirrus anvils produce a strongly negative shortwave cloud radiative effect and induce anomalous cooling in the ABL in the daytime, which reduces the diurnal amplitude of monsoon flows during the night that follows. Conversely, a fair-weather state in the daytime leads to an anomalously warm ABL that enhances the subsequent nighttime acceleration of the monsoon southerlies. The dominant cloud regimes in the daytime over South China are closely related to whether the organized deep convection over the Yun-Gui Plateau (southeast of the Tibetan Plateau) propagates eastward during the preceding night. Such a precursor of clouds/convection governing wind diurnal amplitude indicates a possible predictability of monsoon diurnal cycles over South China. Further analyses show that the cloud regimes and induced monsoon diurnal cycles over South China can regulate the moist convection over the downstream region (central China) through modulating moisture transport and convergence. Therefore, the observational statistics of this study reveal a strong coupling of clouds, radiation, winds, and precipitation at the diurnal time scale over the summer monsoon regions, in which the cloud radiative effects of atmospheric convection can strongly regulate the diurnal variations of low-level winds that further influence precipitation downstream.

A local long-lived convective system developed at midnight over inland South China, producing record-breaking rainfall in Guangzhou on 7 May 2017. This study examines the physical processes responsible for nocturnal convection initiation (CI) and growth. Observational analyses show that the CI occurs in the warm sector under weakly forced synoptic conditions at 500 hPa, while moderate but nocturnally enhanced low-level southeasterlies with a mesoscale moist tongue at 925 hPa intrude inland from the northern South China Sea. Convection-permitting model results show that mesoscale low-level convergence and increased moisture at the leading edge of the southeasterlies are favorable for CI dynamically and thermodynamically. Local ascent and potential instability are further enhanced by orographic lifting and warm moist air from the urban surface, respectively, which trigger convection in northern Guangzhou. The mesoscale moist tongue of southeasterly flows then meets convectively generated outflows, thereby maintaining strong updrafts and continuously triggering back-building convective cells in eastern Guangzhou. Sensitivity tests are conducted to estimate the relative roles of ambient southeasterly moist tongue and urban thermal effects. The southeasterly moist tongue provides moisture that is crucial for CI, while warm moist air from the urban surface is lifted at the leading edge of the southeasterlies and locally facilitates convection. Therefore, the mesoscale processes of lifting and moistening due to nocturnal southeasterlies and their strong interaction with the local factors (orographic lifting, urban heating, and cold-pool-related ascent) provide the sustained lifting and instability crucial for triggering the local long-lived convective systems. The multiscale processes shed light on the understanding of the nocturnal warm-sector heavy rainfall inland.

The cold air outbreak (CAO) is the most important way to reduce air pollution during the winter over northern and eastern China. However, a rapid reappearance of air pollution is usually observed during its decay phase. Is there any relationship between the reappearance of air pollution and the properties of CAO? To address this issue, we investigated the possible connection between air pollution reappearance and CAO by quantifying the properties of the residual cold air mass after CAO. Based on the analyses of recent winters (2014–2022), we found that the rapid reappearance of air pollution in the CAO decay phase has an occurrence frequency of 63 %, and the air quality in more than 50 % of CAOs worsens compared to that before CAO. The reappearance of air pollution tends to occur in the residual cold air mass with a weak horizontal flux during the first 2 d after CAO. By categorizing the CAOs into groups of rapid and slow air pollution reappearance, we found that the residual cold air mass with a moderate depth of 150–180 hPa, a large negative heat content, and small slopes of isentropes is favorable for the rapid reappearance of air pollution. Among these factors, the cold air mass depth is highly consistent with the mixing layer height, below which most air pollutants are found; the negative heat content and slope of isentropes in the cold air mass jointly determine the intensity of low-level vertical stability. The rapid reappearance of air pollution is also attributed to the maintenance of the residual cold air mass and the above conditions, which are mainly regulated by the dynamic transport process rather than diabatic cooling or heating. Furthermore, analysis of the large-scale circulation of CAOs in their initial stage shows that the anticyclonic (cyclonic) pattern in northern Siberia (northeastern Asia) can be recognized as a precursor for the rapid (slow) reappearance of air pollution after the CAO.

Coastal marine boundary layer jets (CMBLJs) play an important role in coastal and inland rainfall in South China. Using 21-yr ERA5 and CMORPH rainfall data, two main CMBLJs are found on the either side of Hainan Island (named as BLJ-WEST vs BLJ-EAST), which are always strengthened jointly. Both the two CMBLJs often occur in the pre-summer rainy season and exhibit evident diurnal cycle with a maximum at night. With the emergence of the CMBLJs, rainfall is significantly enhanced in South China, particularly downstream of each CMBLJ. The response of rainfall to the CMBLJs is mainly attributed to the convergence at the terminus of the CMBLJ, terrain-induced lifting and relevant atmospheric stratification. Coastal rainfall at the downstream of the BLJ-WEST is much weaker than that of the BLJ-EAST because of higher CIN over Beibu Gulf, which is caused by lower temperature lapse rate and adiabatic heating in lee of the Annamite Range. The inland rainfall increases along with the CMBLJs’ intensity, whereas coastal rainfall reaches a maximum in the presence of moderate CMBLJs rather than stronger CMBLJs. Stronger CMBLJs induce stronger dynamic lifting but higher CIN near the coastal area. Additionally, CAPE near the coast does not become highest with strongest CMBLJs, because the CAPE generation contributed by coastal dynamic lifting can be offset by the negative contribution caused by the horizontal advection of the cold and dry air from Indochina Peninsula. Therefore, anomalous dynamic lifting, moisture flux convergence, and CAPE/CIN associated with the CMBLJs’ intensity jointly result in anomalous rainfall.

This study presents the radar-based characteristics and formation environment of supercells spawned by the tornadic landfalling Typhoon Mujigae (2015) in October 2015. More than 100 supercells were identified within a 24-hour period around the time of the typhoon’s landfall, of which three were tornadic with a rotational intensity clearly stronger than those of non-tornadic supercells. The identified supercells were concentrated within a relatively small area in the northeast quadrant beyond 140 km from the typhoon center. These supercells were found more likely to form over flat topography and were difficult to maintain in mountainous regions. During the study period, more supercells formed offshore than onshore. The mesocyclones of the identified supercells were characterized by a small diameter generally less than 5 km and a shallow depth generally less than 4 km above ground level. An environmental analysis revealed that the northeast quadrant had the most favorable conditions for the genesis of supercell in this typhoon case. The nondimensional supercell composite parameter (SCP) and entraining-SCP (E-SCP) were effective in separating supercell from non-supercell environment. Even though the atmosphere in the typhoon’s northeast quadrant was characterized by an E-SCP/SCP value supportive of supercell organization, orography was an impeditive factor for the supercell development. These findings support the use of traditional parameters obtained from midlatitude supercells to assess the supercell potential in a tropical cyclone envelope.

Monsoon southerlies can be particularly active for days and produce substantial rainfall over East Asia. These multiday episodes of southerly monsoon surge may exhibit distinct diurnal variations due to regional forcings under given large-scale conditions. This study categorizes the southerly surges into two types with different wind diurnal variations to clarify their influence on rainfall over East Asia. In the summers of 1998–2019, there are 63 episodes of southerly surges with large wind diurnal cycles and 55 episodes with small diurnal cycles. The first type of southerly surges usually occurs with anomalous low-level warming over southeastern China related to the westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high. The second type of southerly surges instead occurs with anomalous cooling due to the deepened midlatitude trough. They thus represent the different mechanisms downscaling from large-scale conditions to regional diurnal forcings. After the onset of the first type, the intensified monsoon southerlies at night lead to the northward displacement of large-scale ascent and northward water vapor transport with warm moist energy. The monsoon rainband tends to move to the north of 35°N with a robust response in precipitation systems, especially in the meso-α-scale rain events from midnight to morning. As a comparison, the rainband stays at 30°–35°N after the onset of the second type when the strengthened large-scale ascent and water vapor convergence are located relatively south. These differences between the two types of southerly monsoon surges highlight that the multiday large-scale conditions interact with subdaily regional forcings and greatly regulate the detailed evolution of summer rainband over East Asia.

The Mascarene High (MH), is a key component of the Asian-Africa-Australia monsoon system in austral winter (JJA). Its three-dimensional structures and maintenance mechanisms are examined in this study. It is a low-level subtropical high dominating the southern Africa and South Indian Ocean, characterized by a northwestward tilt with height, which is attributed to its spatially inhomogeneous thermal structure. Large-scale subsidence characterizes the main body of the MH, with the stronger subsidence to the east than to the west. Diagnosis using the complete form of the vertical vorticity tendency equation shows that the anticyclonic structure of the MH, which can be described by the distribution of meridional wind, is maintained mainly by the vertical gradient of diabatic heating, change in static stability, and friction dissipation. In particular, a combination of sensible heating and longwave radiative cooling results in a vertical decreasing gradient of diabatic heating in the lower troposphere. It generates the stronger southerlies over the subtropical South Indian Ocean than over the southern Africa. Meanwhile, over the South Indian Ocean, the increasing static stability as a result of the downward transport of a more stable atmosphere partly offsets the effect of the vertical gradient of diabatic heating, and southerlies still prevail there. Over the southern Africa, topographic friction dissipation induces northerlies, balancing the effect of the vertical gradient of diabatic heating with a stronger magnitude, and northerlies prevail.

The Asian monsoon has large spatial and temporal variabilities in winds and precipitation. This study reveals that the Asian monsoon also exhibits pronounced regional differences in cloud regimes and cloud–rainfall relationship at a wide range of time scales from diurnal to seasonal to interannual. Over South (East) Asia, the convectively active regime of deep convection (CD) occurs frequently in June–September (March–September) with a late-afternoon peak (morning feature). The intermediate mixture (IM) regime over South Asia mainly occurs in summer and maximizes near noon. It develops as CD at late afternoon and dissipates as convective cirrus (CC) after midnight, showing a life cycle of thermal convection in response to solar radiation. Over East Asia, IM is dominant in cold seasons with a small diurnal cycle, indicating a prevalence of midlevel stratiform clouds. Further analyses show that CD and CC contribute 80%–90% of the rainfall amount and most of the intense rainfall in the two key regions. The CD-related rainfall also accounts for the pronounced diurnal cycles of summer rainfall with a late-afternoon peak (morning feature) over northern India (Southeast China). The afternoon CD-related rainfall mainly results from thermal convection under the moderate humidity but warm conditions particularly over northern India, while the morning CD-related rainfall over Southeast China is more related to the processes with high humidity. The CD/CC-related rainfall also exhibits large interannual variations that explain ~90% of the interannual variance of summer rainfall. The interannual variations of CD/CC occurrence are positively correlated with the moist southerlies and induced convergence, especially over Southeast China, suggesting a close relationship between cloud regimes and monsoon activities.

The winter monsoon has strong impacts on East Asia via latitude-crossing southward cold airmass fluxes called cold air outbreaks (CAOs). CAOs have a high diversity in terms of meridional extent and induced weather. Using the daily cold airmass flux normalized at 50°N and 30°N during 1958–2016, we categorize the CAOs into three groups: high–middle (H–M), high–low (H–L) and middle–low (M–L) latitude events. The H–L type is found to have the longest duration, and the M–L type is prone to the strong CAOs regarding normalized intensity. The H–L and H–M events feature a large-scale dipole pattern of cold airmass flux over high-latitude Eurasia, and the former (latter) events feature relatively strong anticyclonic circulation over Siberia (cyclonic circulation over northeastern Asia). In contrast, the M–L events are characterized by a cyclonic anomaly over northeastern Asia but no obvious high-latitude precursor. The H–L events have the greatest coldness anomaly in airmasses near the surface, and the M–L events mainly feature a strong northerly wind. As a result, the H–L events induce widespread long-lasting low temperatures over East Asia, while the M–L events induce a sharp temperature drop at mainly low latitudes. Both H–L and M–L events coupling with the MJO enhance rainfall over the South China Sea, while H–M events increase rainfall over southern China. Moreover, the occurrences of H–L and M–L events experience a long-term decrease since the 1980s, which induce a stronger warming trend in the cold extremes than in the winter mean temperature at mid-low latitudes over East Asia.

Through conducting dynamic and thermodynamic diagnoses as well as a series of numerical sensitivity simulations, we investigated the effects of the terrain, coastline, and cold pools on convection initiation (CI) and its subsequent upscale convective growth (UCG) during a case of heavy rainfall along the coast of South China. CI occurred at the vertex of the coastal concave mountain geometry as a combined result of coastal convergence, orographic lifting, and mesoscale ascent driven by the terminus of a marine boundary layer jet (MBLJ). In numerical simulations with the coastline or terrain of South China removed, the coastal CI does not occur or becomes weaker as the MBLJ extends farther north, suggesting that the coastline and terrain play a role in CI. In addition, local small-scale terrain can modulate the detailed location and timing of CI and UCG. When the coastal concave terrain and coastline near the CI are artificially removed or filled by additional mountains, the orographic lifting and the local convergence along the coast correspondingly change, which strongly affects the CI and UCG. From a thermodynamic perspective, the coastal concave terrain plays the role of a local moisture “catcher,” which promotes low-level moistening by blocking water vapor coming from an upstream moist tongue over the ocean. Furthermore, new convection is continuously generated by the lifting of low-level moist southerlies at the leading edges of cold pools that tend to move southeastward because of the blocking coastal mountains. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the MCS becomes weaker and moves more slowly when cold pools are weakened through a reduction of rain-evaporation cooling.

Convection initiation (CI) and the subsequent upscale convective growth (UCG) at the coast of South China in a warm-sector heavy rainfall event are shown to be closely linked to a varying marine boundary layer jet (MBLJ) over the northern South China Sea (NSCS). To elucidate the dynamic and thermodynamic roles of the MBLJ in CI and UCG, we conducted and analyzed convection-permitting numerical simulations and observations. Compared to radar observations, the simulations captured CI locations and the following southwest–northeast-oriented convection development. The nocturnal MBLJ peaks at 950 hPa and significantly intensifies with turning from southwesterly to nearly southerly by inertial oscillation. The strengthened MBLJ promotes mesoscale ascent on its northwestern edge and terminus where enhanced convergence zones occur. Located directly downstream of the MBLJ, the coastal CI and UCG are dynamically supported by mesoscale ascent. From a thermodynamic perspective, a warm moist tongue over the NSCS is strengthened by the MBLJ-driven mesoscale ascent as well as by a high sea surface temperature. The warm moist tongue farther extends northeastward by horizontal transport and arrives at the coast where CI and UCG occur. Near the CI location, rapid development of a low-level saturated layer is mainly attributed to the mesoscale ascent and low-level moistening associated with the MBLJ. In addition, subsequent CI happens on either side of the original CI along the coast due to the delay of low-level moistening, which partly contributes to linear convective growth. Furthermore, ensemble simulations confirmed that a stronger MBLJ is more favorable to CI and UCG near the coast.

From the perspective of cold air mass (CAM) analysis, we examine the characteristics and mechanisms of regional cold events (RCEs) over northwestern and northeastern China in the past 58 years (1958/59–2015/16). The RCEs in northwestern (northeastern) China are shown to have an average duration of 6.8 (4.7) days with a moderate (sharp) temperature drop. We quantitatively estimate the RCE-related CAM, for the first time, using an isentropic analysis method. Before an RCE in northwestern China, CAM is accumulated in western Siberia with convergent CAM flux under a blocking pattern in the Urals region. During RCE outbreak, CAM penetrates the valleys of the Tianshan-Altay Mountains to the Tarim Basin and Hexi Corridor. The CAM moves slowly because of the blocking pattern and orographic effect, which explains the relatively long duration of RCEs. Comparatively, during RCEs in northeastern China, the CAM depth anomaly originates more to the east and quickly passes the Mongolian Plateau guided by an eastward-moving trough. Diagnostic analyses further show that adiabatic processes play a crucial role in regulating the local change of CAM depth during the two kinds of RCEs. The advection term of adiabatic processes mainly increases the CAM depth during RCE outbreak, while the convergence term increases (reduces) CAM depth before (after) RCE outbreak. Both terms are relatively strong during RCEs in northeastern China, resulting in the rate of change in CAM depth being ∼50% larger than for those in northwestern China. Therefore, the variations of RCEs in duration and intensity can be well explained by the different evolution of CAM depth and flux.

Successive mesoscale convective systems may develop for several days during the mei-yu season (June–July) over eastern China. They can yield excessive rainfall in a narrow latitudinal band (called a corridor), causing severe floods. The climatology of rainfall corridors and related environmental factors are examined using 20 yr of satellite rainfall and atmospheric data. A total of 93 corridors are observed over eastern China, with maximum occurrence at 27°–31°N. They typically last 2–3 days, but some persist ≥4 days, with an extreme event lasting 11 days. These multiday convective episodes exhibit primary and secondary peaks in the morning and afternoon, respectively, with a diurnal cycle that is in contrast to other afternoon-peak rain events. On average, the corridors occur in ~23% days of the mei-yu season, but they can contribute ~51% of the total rainfall. They also vary with years and explain ~70% of the interannual variance of mei-yu-season rainfall. Composite analyses show that most corridors develop along zonally oriented quasi-stationary mei-yu fronts over central China where monsoon southwesterlies converge with northerly anomalies from the midlatitudes. The monsoon flow accelerates at ~0200 LST and forms a regional wind maximum or low-level jet over South China, which induces moisture flux convergence in morning-peak corridors. The nocturnal acceleration is less evident for afternoon-peak corridors. The mei-yu front and monsoon southwesterlies also influence the corridor’s duration, which is regulated by a dipole of geopotential anomalies, with positive in the tropics and negative in the midlatitudes. The dipole expresses a joint influence of the blocking patterns in midlatitudes and the El Niño–related anomalous high over the western Pacific Ocean, and the dipole's intensity explains well the interannual variations of the corridors.

Diurnal variations of rainfall and winds are pronounced over the Asian summer monsoon region, but their activities under different monsoon conditions are not clarified. Here, the diurnal cycle of monsoon flow and its influence are examined using 20-yr satellite rainfall and reanalysis data. A total of 1840 summer days are partitioned into four dynamic groups of strong or weak background flows with large or small diurnal amplitudes of low-level meridional wind. Large-scale southerly wind is found to be strongest after midnight, with a large diurnal amplitude on strong monsoon days over central-north India and southeast China. Such a nocturnal speed-up is closely associated with the Blackadar boundary layer inertial oscillation due to the diurnal heating over low-lying landmass. It acts like a large air pump that injects moisture poleward at night and strengthens monsoonal circulation with anomalous rising motion at the northern rainband of the Asian monsoon. In particular, monsoon southerlies with large nighttime speed-up converge with downslope winds from the Himalayas or northerly anomaly from midlatitudes. Enhanced water vapor convergence facilitates the growth of organized convection, producing substantial rainfall at the Himalayan foothills in predawn hours and at the mei-yu–baiu zone from predawn to noon. When monsoon flow undergoes a small diurnal cycle, rainfall is instead displaced south and mostly recorded in daytime. Both the daily mean and morning peak of rainfall are suppressed on land under weak monsoon southerlies. Moreover, the monsoon diurnal cycle exhibits evident intraseasonal/interannual variations and contributes to rainfall variability. The results highlight that monsoon flow couples with subdaily forcings to strongly regulate the detailed patterns of rainfall and moisture budget over the Asian monsoon regions.

The cold air outbreak (CAO) is the most important way to reduce air pollution during the winter over North China. However, a rapid reappearance of air pollution is usually observed during its decay phase. Is there any relationship between the reappearance of air pollution and the properties of CAO? To address this issue, we investigated the possible connection between air pollution reappearance and CAO by quantifying the properties of the residual cold airmass after CAO. Based on the analyses in recent winters (2014–2019), we found that the rapid reappearance of air pollution in the CAO decay phase has an occurrence frequency of 74 %, and the air quality in more than 50 % of CAOs worsens than that before CAO. The reappearance of air pollution tends to occur in the residual cold airmass with weak horizontal flux during the first two days after CAO. By categorizing the CAOs into groups of rapid and slow air pollution reappearance, we found that the residual cold airmass with moderate depth of 150–180 hPa, large negative heat content and small slopes of isentropes is favorable for the rapid reappearance of air pollution. Among these factors, the cold airmass depth is highly consistent with the mixing layer height, below which contains most air pollutants; the negative heat content and slope of isentropes in cold airmass jointly determine the intensity of low-level vertical stability. The rapid reappearance of air pollution is also attributed to the maintenance of residual cold airmass and the above conditions, which is mainly regulated by the dynamic transport process rather than diabatic cooling or heating. Furthermore, analysis of the large-scale circulation of CAOs in their initial stage shows that the anticyclonic (cyclonic) pattern in northern Siberia (northeastern Asia) can be recognized as a precursor for the rapid (slow) reappearance of air pollution after the CAO.

Multiscale processes from synoptic disturbances to diurnal cycles during the record-breaking heavy rainfall in summer 2020 were examined in this study. The heavy rainfall consisted of eight episodes, each lasting about 5 days, and were associated with two types of synoptic disturbances. The Type-1 episodes featured a northwestward extending western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), while the Type-2 episodes had approaching midlatitude troughs with southward retreat in the WPSH. Each heavy rainfall episode had 2–3 occurrences of nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs), in close association with intense rainfall in the early morning. The NLLJs formed partly due to the geostrophic wind by increased pressure gradients under both types of synoptic disturbances. The NLLJs were also driven by the ageostrophic wind that veered to maximum southerlies at late night due to the boundary-layer inertial oscillation. The diurnal amplitudes of low-level southerlies increased remarkably after the onset of Type-1 episodes, in which the extending WPSH provided strong daytime heating from solar radiation. By contrast, the wind diurnal amplitudes were less changed after the onset of Type-2 episodes. The NLLJs strengthened the mesoscale mean ascent, net moisture flux convergence, and convective instability in elevated warm moist air, which led to the upscale growth of MCSs at the northern terminus of the LLJ after midnight. The MCSs-induced Meiyu rainband was re-established in Central China during the Type-1 episodes with the increased diurnal variations. The findings highlight that the regional diurnal cycles of low-level winds in response to synoptic disturbances can strongly regulate mesoscale convective activities in a downscaling manner, and thus produce heavy rainfall.

A dataset of convection initiation (CI) is of great value in studying the triggering mechanisms of deep moist convection and evaluating the performances of numerical models. In recent years, the data quality of the operationally generated radar mosaics over China has been greatly improved, which provides an opportunity to retrieve a CI dataset from that region. In this work, an attempt is made to reveal the potential of applying a simple framework of objective CI detection for the study of CI climatology in China. The framework was tested using radar mosaic maps in South China that were accessible online. The identified CI events were validated in both direct and indirect ways. On the basis of a direct manual check, nearly all of the identified CI cells had an organized motion. The precipitation echoes of the cells had a median duration of approximately 2.5 h. The CI occurrences were further compared with rainfall estimates to ensure physical consistency. The diurnal cycle of CI occurrence exhibits three major modes: a late-night-to-morning peak at the windward coasts and offshore, a noon-to-late-afternoon peak on the coastal land, and an evening-to-early-morning peak over the northwestern highland. These spatial modes agree well with those of rainfall, indirectly suggesting the reliability of the CI statistics. By processing radar mosaic maps, such a framework could be applied for studying CI climatology over China and other regions.

Low-level jets (LLJs) are a key factor regulating the early-summer rainfall over southern China. Their detailed activities and impact are examined using 21-yr ERA5 and TRMM rainfall data. The LLJs typically consist of boundary layer jets (BLJs) and synoptic-system-related LLJs (SLLJs). The BLJ is usually characterized by a southerly wind maximum at 950 hPa over the northern area of South China Sea, whereas the SLLJ features a southwesterly wind maximum at 850–700 hPa located more north on land. Meanwhile, the BLJ (SLLJ) has a maximum occurrence in April–June (May–July) and at late night (in the early morning), indicating the differences in seasonal and diurnal variations. The two types of LLJs are found to influence the rainfall distribution via terrain effects, synoptic disturbances, and moisture transport. During the BLJ events, rainfall is mainly confined to the south side of the Nanling and Wuyi Mountains and Yun-Gui Plateau (south region), whereas during the SLLJ events rainfall occurs both in the coastal region and to the north of the mountains (north region). The difference is caused by the southerly BLJ that induces strong orographic lifting on the windward side of the mountains, while the elevated SLLJ can pass over the mountains driving an additional upward motion more north. Active synoptic disturbances accompanied by SLLJs are also favorable for the rainfall in the north region. The moisture transportation by LLJs is another important factor regulating rainfall distribution. Rainfall in the south (north) region is mainly attributed to the net moisture flux in the boundary layer (more elevated layers) due to the BLJ (SLLJ).

A succession of MCSs developed during the last week of October 2016 and produced extreme heavy rainfall in central China. The event underwent an evident shift from a mei-yu-like warm scenario to an autumn cold scenario. Diurnal cycles of rainfall and low-level winds may be modulated by the shifting of large-scale atmospheric conditions. We conducted observational analyses and numerical experiments to examine how large-scale circulations influenced rainfall systems through diurnally varying processes. The results show that, in the first half (warm) period of the event, intense rainfall mostly occurred in eastern-central China with an early morning peak. It was closely related to a nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet (NLLJ) on the flank of the western Pacific subtropical high. The NLLJ formed near midnight in southern China where ageostrophic wind rotated clockwise due to Blackadar’s inertial oscillation. The NLLJ extended downstream to central China during the predawn hours due to the horizontal advection of momentum. Both the formation and extension of the NLLJ were supported by an enhanced subtropical high that provided relatively warm conditions with surface heating for boundary layer inertial oscillation and strong background southwesterly winds for momentum transport. The NLLJ induced MCSs at its northern terminus where the low-level ascent, moisture flux convergence, and convective instability were enhanced during the predawn hours. In the second half period with an intrusion of cold air, the diurnal amplitude of low-level winds became small under relatively cold and cloudy conditions. Moderate rainfall tended to occur in western-central China with a peak after midnight, most likely due to frontogenetic processes, upslope lifting, and nighttime cloud-top cooling.

We surveyed the occurrence of tropical cyclone (TC) tornadoes in China from 2006 to 2018. There were 64 cataloged TC tornadoes, with an average of five per year. About one-third of the landfalling TCs in China were tornadic. Consistent with previous studies, TC tornadoes preferentially formed in the afternoon shortly before and within about 36 h after landfall of the TCs. These tornadoes mainly occurred in coastal areas with relatively flat terrains. The maximum number of TC tornadoes occurred in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces. Most of the TC tornadoes were spawned within 500 km of the TC center. Two notable characteristics were found: (1) TC tornadoes in China mainly occurred in the northeast quadrant (Earth-relative coordinates) rather than the right-front quadrant (TC motion-relative coordinates) of the parent TC circulation; and (2) most tornadoes were produced by TCs with a relatively weak intensity (tropical depressions/storms), in contrast with the United States where most tornadoes are associated with stronger TCs. Further analyses showed that TC tornadoes in China tend to be spawned in an environment with large low-level storm relative helicity and large convective available potential energy taking entrainment effects into account. TC tornadoes were particularly active in 2018, with 24 reported tornadoes accounting for 37.5% of the total surveyed samples. The first recorded tornado outbreak in the modern history of China occurred in the envelope of TC Yagi (2018), in which 11 tornadoes were reported in association with significant midlevel intrusions of dry air and the interaction of Yagi with an approaching midlatitude midlevel trough.

The sea surface salinity (SSS) varies largely as a result of the evaporation–precipitation difference, indicating the source or sink of regional/global water vapor. This study identifies a relationship between the spring SSS in the tropical northwest Pacific (TNWP) and the summer rainfall of the East Asian monsoon region (EAMR) during 1980–2017. Analysis suggests that the SSS–rainfall link involves the coupled ocean–atmosphere–land processes with a multifacet evolution. In spring, evaporation and water vapor flux divergence were enhanced in some years over the TNWP where an anomalous atmospheric anticyclone was established and a high SSS was well observed. As a result, the convergence of water vapor flux and soil moisture over the EAMR was strengthened. This ocean-to-land water vapor transport pattern was sustained from spring to summer and played a leading role in the EAMR rainfall. Moreover, the change in local spring soil moisture helped to amplify the summer rainfall by modifying surface thermal conditions and precipitation systems over the EAMR. As the multifacet evolution is closely related to the large-scale ocean-to-land water vapor transport, it can be well represented by the spring SSS in the TNWP. A random forest regression algorithm was used to further evaluate the relative importance of spring SSS in predicting summer rainfall compared to other climate indices. As the SSS is now monitored routinely by satellite and the global Argo float array, it can serve as a good metric for measuring the water cycle and as a precursor for predicting the EAMR rainfall.

The mountain-plains solenoid (MPS) and boundary-layer inertial oscillation (BLO) are two typical regional forcings at the diurnal time scale. Their relative role in regulating the diurnal variations of summer rainfall over North China and their change under different monsoon conditions are studied using a 19-yr archive of satellite rainfall and reanalysis data. It is shown that both a strong MPS and BLO can increase nocturnal rainfall in the North China plains but exhibit evident regional differences. The MPS-induced nocturnal rainfall is relatively confined to the plains adjacent to mountains from late night to morning, due to the upward branch of the nighttime MPS. In contrast, the BLO-induced nocturnal rainfall strengthens from early evening and is more extensive in early morning over the open plains further east. The contrasting effect in the evening is related to the convergent (divergent) easterly anomaly in the plains under the BLO (MPS). The BLO also induces the relatively strong enhancement of moisture convergence and high humidity by the southerly anomaly at late night. On strong monsoon days, the nocturnal rainfall amount associated with the MPS and BLO increases considerably in the plains. Both regional forcings become effective in regulating the rainfall diurnal cycle with enhanced moisture convergence under monsoon conditions. Their induced diurnal amplitudes of moisture convergence can be comparable to the daily mean by monsoon flow. The regional forcings thus couple with monsoon flow to strengthen rainfall in the plains, particularly from late night to morning. The results highlight that a combination of regional and large-scale forcings can strongly regulate the warm-season climate.

Summary Relationships among productivity, leaf phenology, and seasonal variation in moisture and light availability are poorly understood for evergreen broadleaved tropical/subtropical forests, which contribute 25% of terrestrial productivity. On the one hand, as moisture availability declines, trees shed leaves to reduce transpiration and the risk of hydraulic failure. On the other hand, increases in light availability promote the replacement of senescent leaves to increase productivity. Here, we provide a comprehensive framework that relates the seasonality of climate, leaf abscission, and leaf productivity across the evergreen broadleaved tropical/subtropical forest biome. The seasonal correlation between rainfall and light availability varies from strongly negative to strongly positive across the tropics and maps onto the seasonal correlation between litterfall mass and productivity for 68 forests. Where rainfall and light covary positively, litterfall and productivity also covary positively and are always greater in the wetter sunnier season. Where rainfall and light covary negatively, litterfall and productivity are always greater in the drier and sunnier season if moisture supplies remain adequate; otherwise productivity is smaller in the drier sunnier season. This framework will improve the representation of tropical/subtropical forests in Earth system models and suggests how phenology and productivity will change as climate change alters the seasonality of cloud cover and rainfall across tropical/subtropical forests., Graphical abstract, Public summary • Three climate-phenology regimes are identified across tropical and subtropical forest biomes • Where light and water limit plant in dry season, litterfall and productivity peak in sunny wet season • Where light or water alternately limits plant, productivity peaks in wet season with low litterfall • Where water does not limit plant, litterfall and productivity peak in sunny dry season

Heavy rainfall that occurred at the south coast of China on 10–11 May 2014 was associated with a synoptic-system-related low-level jet (SLLJ) and a boundary layer jet (BLJ). To clarify the role of the double low-level jets in convection initiation (CI), we perform convective-permitting simulations using a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model. The simulations reproduce the occurrence location and mesoscale evolution of new convective cells as well as their small-scale wavelike structures at the elevated layers, which are generally consistent with radar observations despite some differences in their orientation. The nighttime BLJ over the northern South China Sea strengthens the convergence at ~950 hPa near the coast where the BLJ’s northern terminus reaches the coastal terrain. Meanwhile, the SLLJ to the south of the inland cold front provides divergence at ~700 hPa near the SLLJ’s entrance region. Such low-level convergence and midlevel divergence collectively produce strong mesoscale lifting for CI at the coast. In addition to the enhanced mesoscale lifting, the double low-level jets also provide favorable conditions for the superimposed small-scale disturbances that can serve as effective moistening mechanisms of the lower troposphere during CI. In a sensitivity experiment with coastal terrain removed, CI still occurs near the coast but is delayed and weaker compared to the control run. This latter experiment suggests that double low-level jets and their coupling indeed exert key effects on CI, while the BLJ colliding with terrain may enhance coastal convergence for amplifying CI. These findings provide new insights into the occurrence of coastal heavy rainfall in the warm sector far ahead of the fronts.

Realistic simulation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall has been regarded as one of the challenging issues. This study investigates the sensitivity of simulating the diurnal cycle of Mei-yu rainfall over eastern China to cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) and the associated physical mechanisms using WRF model. Although CPSs reproduce well the late-afternoon peak of rainfall, they differ largely in simulating the early-morning peak that is closely associated with the eastward-propagating (locally-growing) nocturnal systems over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau (lower reach of the Yangtze River valley). The Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme with an alternative trigger function (KFtrigger2) shows the best performance on capturing the diurnal phase and amplitude of rainfalls. Compared to the KFtrigger2 scheme, the KF scheme enhances moisture convergence and terrain-induced circulations that are favorable for the propagating rainfall systems in the western region. The intensive southerly wind due to inertial oscillation, with stronger upward motion and moisture convergence and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE), also lead to more locally-growing nocturnal rainfall in the eastern region. The Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme produces a more stable atmosphere with weaker upward motion and smaller CAPE, resulting in a poor simulation of convective and non-convective rainfalls with a 2-h delay for the peaks of two kinds of nocturnal systems. The Grell-3D scheme produces the relatively weak and short-lived propagating nocturnal rainfall owing to the weaker circulation and drier conditions in the middle troposphere. However, it reproduces the unstable atmosphere with relatively strong upward motion and moisture convergence, resulting in more convective rainfall in the locally-growing nocturnal systems.

Heavy rainfall occurred at both the inland frontal zone and coastal warm sector in southern China during 10–11 May 2014, which is a typical pattern in the early-summer rainy season. To clarify the key factors controlling the rainfall, we conduct an ensemble-based analysis using the operational global ensemble forecasts from ECMWF. The forecasts of frontal (warm sector) rainfall have a relatively small (large) spread and a small (large) bias of ensemble-mean amount, suggesting an obvious difference in the predictability. It is shown that double low-level jets (LLJs) in the southwesterly moist flow play a significant role in the heavy rainfall over southern China. The inland frontal rainband is closely related to the synoptic-system-related low-level jet (SLLJ) with maximum wind speed at 850–700 hPa, especially for its meridional wind component. The more intense cold front is accompanied by the stronger southwesterly SLLJ on the adjacent south side, favoring more precipitation near the front. The warm-sector heavy rainfall, a few hundred kilometers away from the front, is associated with the boundary layer jet (BLJ) at 925 hPa. The southerly BLJ occurs over the northern region of the South China Sea and reaches its maximum wind speed in the early morning. The variations of the BLJ are mainly induced by the surface low and related upper-level short-wave trough upstream. The large pressure gradient to the southeast of the surface low can accelerate the BLJ by increasing the geostrophic winds. The diurnal cycle of the low-level winds, seen in the climatology, also contributes in part to the development of the BLJ at night.

The complex features of rainfall diurnal cycles at the south China coast are examined using hourly rain gauge data and satellite products (CMORPH and TRMM 3B42) during 1998–2014. It is shown that morning rainfall is pronounced near the coasts and windward mountains, with high rainfall in the summer monsoon season, while afternoon rainfall is dominant on land, and nocturnal rainfall occurs at northern inland sites. Both satellite products report less morning rainfall and more afternoon rainfall than the rain gauge data, and they also miss the midnight rainfall minimum. These errors are mainly attributable to an underestimation of morning moderate and intense rains at coasts and an overestimation of afternoon–evening light rains on land. With a correction of the systematic bias, satellite products faithfully resolve the spatial patterns of normalized rainfall diurnal cycles related to land–sea contrast and terrains, suggesting an improved data application for regional climate studies. In particular, they are comparable to the rain gauge data in showing the linear reduction of morning rainfall from coasts to inland regions. TRMM is marginally better than CMORPH in revealing the overall features of diurnal cycles, while higher-resolution CMORPH captures more local details. All three datasets also present that morning rainfall decreases from May–June to July–August, especially on land; it exhibits pronounced interannual variations and a decadal increase in 1998–2008 at coasts. Such long-term variations of morning rainfall are induced by the coastal convergence and mountain liftings of monsoon shear flow interacting with land breeze, which is mainly regulated by monsoon southwesterly winds in the northern part of the South China Sea.

Moist convection occurred repeatedly in the midnight-to-morning hours of 11–16 June 1998 and yielded excessive rainfall in a narrow latitudinal corridor over East Asia, causing severe flood. Numerical experiments and composite analyses of a 5-day period are performed to examine the mechanisms governing nocturnal convection. Both simulations and observations show that a train of MCSs concurrently developed along a quasi-stationary mei-yu front and coincided with the impact of a monsoon surge on a frontogenetic zone at night. This process was regulated primarily by a nocturnal low-level jet (NLLJ) in the southwesterly monsoon that formed over southern China and extended to central China. In particular, the NLLJ acted as a mechanism of moisture transport over the plains. At its northern terminus, the NLLJ led to a zonal band of elevated conditionally unstable air where strong low-level ascent overcame small convective inhibition, triggering new convection in three preferred plains. An analysis of convective instability shows that the low-tropospheric intrusion of moist monsoon air generated CAPE of ~1000 J kg−1 prior to convection initiation, whereas free-atmospheric forcing was much weaker. The NLLJ-related horizontal advection accounted for most of the instability precondition at 100–175 J kg−1 h−1. At the convective stage, instability generation by the upward transport of moisture increased to ~100 J kg−1 h−1, suggesting that ascending inflow caused feedback in convection growth. The convection dissipated in late morning with decaying NLLJ and moisture at elevated layers. It is concluded that the diurnally varying summer monsoon acted as an effective discharge of available moist energy from southern to central China, generating the morning-peak heavy rainfall corridor.

Global vegetation greening trend stalled after the late 1990s due to increased atmospheric water demand., Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a critical variable in determining plant photosynthesis. Synthesis of four global climate datasets reveals a sharp increase of VPD after the late 1990s. In response, the vegetation greening trend indicated by a satellite-derived vegetation index (GIMMS3g), which was evident before the late 1990s, was subsequently stalled or reversed. Terrestrial gross primary production derived from two satellite-based models (revised EC-LUE and MODIS) exhibits persistent and widespread decreases after the late 1990s due to increased VPD, which offset the positive CO2 fertilization effect. Six Earth system models have consistently projected continuous increases of VPD throughout the current century. Our results highlight that the impacts of VPD on vegetation growth should be adequately considered to assess ecosystem responses to future climate conditions.

A short-term hot event with a very high sea surface temperature (SST ≥ 30°C) occurred in the western Pacific warm pool during November 2006. The interactions between this ocean hot event, atmospheric convection, and large-scale dynamics are studied using satellite observations, buoy measurements, air–sea fluxes analysis, and global reanalysis. It is shown that SST variation and deep convection over the western Pacific behave like a remote response to the El Niño warm SST anomaly in the central Pacific that induces westward-moving atmospheric convection and equatorial waves. The large-scale subsidence associated with propagating convection not only promotes high SSTs in the western Pacific through establishing cloud-free conditions and increasing heat content in a thin ocean mixed layer, but also produces convective instability through capping substantial water vapor in the lower troposphere. Under the precondition of convective instability and the steering of tropical easterlies, some convective systems propagate coherently from the central to western Pacific and intensify. In particular, new cloud clusters are dynamically attracted to the warmest oceans with maximum atmospheric instability. The enhanced convective activity then transfers oceanic energy into the atmosphere, strengthens upper-ocean mixing, and returns the positive SST anomalies to more typical values. In such a coupled system, synoptic-scale convective activities at an interval of 5–8 days are selectively amplified and thus are filtered to an intraseasonal (20–30-day) oscillation, depending on the phase of the hot event over the western Pacific. The observed evidence has implications for the predictability of short-term climate, and it offers critical information for validating the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics in climate models.

Eastern China has recently experienced frequent haze-fog events that are widely thought to be modulated by atmospheric conditions. Using the climatological pentad mean occurrence frequency of haze-fog, for the first time, we found that the haze-fog frequency in eastern China (115°–125°E, 20°–40°N) presents a statistically significant climatological intraseasonal oscillation (CISO) with a period of approximately 50 days. The haze-fog CISO exhibits three cycles from May to September, with peaks occurring in mid-June, late July and mid-September. Among these three cycles, the first two have relatively large amplitudes and usually show northward phase propagation. A positive anomaly of haze-fog occurrence frequency propagates primarily from South China to North China, with a decreasing speed from 1.0 to 0.54° lat day−1. By dividing the cycle of haze-fog CISO into 8 phases, regional differences in haze-fog CISO are discovered. North China has a shorter “polluted” phase than the Yangtze River Basin and South China. Further analysis shows that the haze-fog CISO is connected to the summer monsoon via physical and chemical processes. The enhanced monsoon directly reduces haze-fog by active convection and strong winds, while the slowing horizontal wind speeds and anomalous sinking motion in the weakened phase of monsoon lead to an increase in haze-fog. In addition, the weakened monsoon will also indirectly increase haze-fog by enhancing the photochemical process.

Heavy rainfalls occur frequently during early summer (April–June) over South China, causing severe floods. Using 12 years of hourly rain-gauge data, we identify a large number of regional heavy rainfall events and categorize them into two major types based on the strength of synoptic forcing. It is shown that frontal heavy rainfalls associated with fronts or shear lines mainly occurs over inland regions, whereas warm-sector heavy rainfall under weakly forced synoptic environment is observed in coastal areas. The rainfall maxima of both types tend to form over the low-lying plains or sea surfaces adjacent to windward mountains. Frontal heavy rainfall usually propagates southwards with a cold front, while warm-sector events move relatively slowly and produce coherent patterns of rainfall. The occurrence of warm-sector rainfall increases markedly from April to June in a close association with the onset of summer monsoon, in contrast to frontal rainfall with less monthly variation. Warm-sector rainfall also exhibits pronounced diurnal variation, with a peak in the early morning, as a result of intensified convergence between nocturnal low-level jets in southerly monsoon and land breezes. In contrast, frontal rainfall has an afternoon peak, due to the arrival of eastward-propagating rain systems and daytime heating on land. As frontal (warm-sector) heavy rainfall has relatively high (low) predictability in numerical models, understanding their occurrence and formation is of benefit to operational forecasting and decision-making for disaster prevention.