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Förord Denna studie har utförts av Professor Peichen Gong med hjälp av Anton Knutsson på institutionen för skogsekonomi vid Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet i Umeå på uppdrag av Naturvårdsverket. Till uppdraget har en expertgrupp knutits, där Katarina Elofsson, professor vid Århus universitet, samt Björn Boström och Miriam Munnich Vass på Naturvårdsverket har ingått, tillsammans med rapportförfattarna. Studien är finansierad genom anslag från Naturvårdsverket och uppdraget var att studera möjliga styrmedel för att ge incitament till åtgärder i skogen som leder till ökad kolinlagring framförallt i levande träd. Kolinlagring i träd, växter, mark och träprodukter innebär att koldioxid tas bort från atmosfären vilket hjälper till att motverka klimatförändringarna. Förstärkta kolsänkor kan utgöra ett komplement till de utsläppsminskningar som måste ske i övriga sektorer för att Sverige ska nå sina klimatmål till 2030, 2040 och 2045 och för att EU ska nå netto-nollutsläpp av växthusgaser till 2050. Studien syftar till att analysera lämpliga styrmedel och landa i några övergripande rekommendationer om vilka styrmedel som är mest lämpade för att ge incitament till kolsänkor, ett område som idag saknar direkta styrmedel utöver våtmarkssatsningen.Åtgärderna som kan vidtas för att öka kolinlagringen i markanvändningssektorn är många och de styrmedel som behöver läggas till för att ge rätt incitament kan variera mellan de olika åtgärderna. I denna studie har forskarna framförallt fokuserat på olika ekonomiska styrmedel, såsom generella stöd och bidrag, omvänd auktionering och skatter. Även administrativa styrmedel, såsom lagar och krav tas upp.Rapportförfattarna är ansvariga för slutsatserna. Slutsatserna utgör inte Naturvårdsverkets officiella ståndpunkt.Resultaten ska bidra till Naturvårdsverkets styrmedelsrekommendationer som görs på regelbunden basis till Regeringskansliet. Stockholm 1 mars 2022 Stefan Nyström Avdelningschef, Klimatavdelningen

Using a partial equilibrium model of the Swedish forest sector, this study analyzes the impacts of an increasing bioenergy production on the timber harvest and forest growing stock. The impacts on the carbon balance of forests are also examined. The results suggest that, when compared with the base scenario, in which the current use pattern of forests continues, increased bioenergy production will lead to a 10–14 million m3 (Mm3) increase in the total harvest, depending on the extraction rate of forest residues. Increasing the use of forest residues will reduce the harvest and leave more room for accumulation of the forest stock in the early years, while the stock accumulation will be partially offset by the increased timber harvest in the long run. Increasing bioenergy production will have a negative impact on the carbon balance primarily due to a net loss of carbon stored in forests. Overall, the joint contribution of forest-based mitigation is significant, equivalent to or higher than 65% of the country’s annual GHG emissions. To achieve an ambitious bioenergy target in the long run, a fraction of pulpwood will be consumed as fuelwood that will inevitably intensify the competition between the two timber products, though increasing the use of forest residues could slightly reduce the competition in the short run.

Woody biomass is the largest source of renewable energy in Europe, and the expected increase in demand for wood for energy purposes was the stimulus for writing this paper. Opportunities to increase the supply of forest biomass in the short and long term are discussed, as well as environmental side effects of intensive forest management. Focusing on northern Europe, national estimates of potential annual fellings and the corresponding potential amounts, simulated by the European Forest Information Scenario model, are then presented, as well as reported fellings. For the region as a whole, there seems to be substantial unused biophysical potential, although recent data from some countries indicate underestimated annual felling rates. We argue that an economic perspective is lacking in the debate about wood production for energy purposes in Europe and harvest potentials, and we discuss the effects of biophysical capacity limits in forest yield from a partial equilibrium perspective. Using a larger proportion of the biophysical potential in northern Europe than at present will entail trade-offs with environmental and social values, which means that strategies are needed to protect and account for the benefits and costs of all forms of ecosystem services.

Forests of northern ecosystems respond slowly to management activities and the possibilities to increase the growth in a short-term perspective and meet swift increases in society's demand for biomass are small. An exception among the silvicultural measures is fertilization which can be applied in combination with present management systems and, almost instantly, enhances forest productivity. There may, however, be both economic and environmental constraints to large-scale applications of fertilizers in forest. Here we review the literature concerning biomass production of forests under different fertilization regimens, environmental constraints and possibilities in northern forests on mineral soils. Further on we discuss the implications of both extensive and more intensive fertilization in relation to the developing bioeconomy, which encompasses the production and conversion of renewable biological resources into food, health and industrial products and energy. Fertilization in Sweden and Finland is currently practiced by extensive fertilization regimens where nitrogen fertilizers are applied once, or up to three times, during a rotation period, mainly in mature forest. This type of fertilization gives, in most cases, a small and transient effect on the environment as well as a high rate of return to the forest owner with low-economic risk. The increase in biomass production, however, is relatively small and consequently the impact on the processing industry and the bioeconomy is limited. More intensive fertilization regimens implying intensive fertilization starting in young forests may, on the other hand, considerably increase the biomass supply and value for the industry. The economic and environmental risks of this type of fertilization may, however, be larger and more research is needed on the effects on the stand level, and especially on the landscape level, including late rotation management of the forest.

Forests of northern ecosystems respond slowly to management activities and the possibilities to increase the growth in a short-term perspective and meet swift increases in society's demand for biomass are small. An exception among the silvicultural measures is fertilization which can be applied in combination with present management systems and, almost instantly, enhances forest productivity. There may, however, be both economic and environmental constraints to large-scale applications of fertilizers in forest. Here we review the literature concerning biomass production of forests under different fertilization regimens, environmental constraints and possibilities in northern forests on mineral soils. Further on we discuss the implications of both extensive and more intensive fertilization in relation to the developing bioeconomy, which encompasses the production and conversion of renewable biological resources into food, health and industrial products and energy. Fertilization in Sweden and Finland is currently practiced by extensive fertilization regimens where nitrogen fertilizers are applied once, or up to three times, during a rotation period, mainly in mature forest. This type of fertilization gives, in most cases, a small and transient effect on the environment as well as a high rate of return to the forest owner with low-economic risk. The increase in biomass production, however, is relatively small and consequently the impact on the processing industry and the bioeconomy is limited. More intensive fertilization regimens implying intensive fertilization starting in young forests may, on the other hand, considerably increase the biomass supply and value for the industry. The economic and environmental risks of this type of fertilization may, however, be larger and more research is needed on the effects on the stand level, and especially on the landscape level, including late rotation management of the forest.

The paper assesses the welfare effects of biotechnological progress, as exemplified by tree improvements, using a partial equilibrium model. Timber demand is assumed to be stochastic and the distributions of its coefficients known. The coefficients of a log-linear supply function are determined by maximizing the expected present value of the total surplus of timber production, both in the presence and in the absence of genetically improved regeneration materials. The supply functions are then used to estimate the expected present values of the total surplus in different cases through simulation. These estimates enable us to assess the direct effect and the effect of changing harvest behavior on the expected present value of the total surplus. The main results of the study are (i) the presence of genetically improved regeneration materials has significant impacts on the aggregate timber supply function; (ii) the application of genetically improved regeneration materials leads to a significant increase in the expected present value of the total surplus; and (iii) a considerable proportion of the welfare gain results from the change in harvest behavior. A conclusion we draw from this study is that ignoring the influences of technological and policy changes on behavior can lead to significantly biased welfare estimates. We view the model as a potential approach to conducting counterfactual policy comparisons in economics without forward-looking data., Article first published online: 4 APR 2012