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Eliana Ferroni,1 Paolo Giorgi Rossi,2 Stefania Spila Alegiani,3 Gianluca Trifirò,4 Gisella Pitter,1 Olivia Leoni,5 Danilo Cereda,5 Massimiliano Marino,2 Michele Pellizzari,1 Massimo Fabiani,6 Flavia Riccardo,6 Janet Sultana,4 Marco Massari3 On behalf of The ITA-COVID Working Group1Azienda Zero of the Veneto Region, Padua, Italy; 2Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS, Reggio Emilia, Italy; 3National Center for Drug Research and Evaluation, Istituto Superiore Di Sanità, Rome, Italy; 4Department of Biomedical and Dental Sciences and Morphofunctional Imaging – University of Messina, Messina, Italy; 5Department of Health of Lombardy Region, Milan, Italy; 6Department of Infectious Diseases, Istituto Superiore Di Sanità, Rome, ItalyCorrespondence: Stefania Spila AlegianiIstituto Superiore Di Sanità, Viale Regina Elena, 299, Rome 00161, ItalyTel +39 0649904249Fax +39 0649904248Email stefania.spila@iss.itPaolo Giorgi RossiAzienda Unità Sanitaria Locale – IRCCS, Reggio Emilia, via Amendola 2, Reggio Emilia 42122, ItalyTel +39 0522335490Email paolo.giorgirossi@ausl.re.itIntroduction: COVID-19 case fatality rate in hospitalized patients varies across countries and studies. Reliable estimates, specific for age, sex, and comorbidities, are needed to monitor the epidemic, to compare the outcome in different settings, and to correctly design trials for COVID-19 interventions. The aim of this study was to provide population-based survival curves of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.Materials and Methods: A cohort study was conducted in three areas of Northern Italy, heavily affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection (Lombardy and Veneto Regions, and Reggio Emilia province), using a loco-regional COVID-19 surveillance system, linked to hospital discharge databases. We included all patients testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RT-PCR on nasopharyngeal/throat swab samples who were hospitalized from 21 February to 21 April 2020. Kaplan–Meier survival estimates were calculated at 14 and 30 days for death in any setting, stratifying by age, sex, and the Charlson Index.Results: Overall, 42,926 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were identified. Patients’ median age was 69 years (IQR: 57– 79), 62.6% were males, and 6.0% had a Charlson Index ≥ 3. Survival curves showed that 22.0% (95% CI 21.6– 22.4) of patients died within 14 days and 27.6% (95% CI 27.2– 28.1) within 30 days from hospitalization. Survival was higher in younger patients and in females. The negative impact of comorbidities on survival was more pronounced in younger age groups.Conclusion: The high fatality rate observed in the study (28% at 30 days) suggests that studies should focus on death as primary endpoint during a follow-up of at least one month.Keywords: COVID-19, survival, cohort study, hospitalized patients, Italy

Background: Despite the relevance for occupational safety policies, the health effects of temperature on occupational injuries have been scarcely investigated. A nationwide epidemiological study was carried out to estimate the risk of injuries for workers exposed to extreme temperature and identify economic sectors and jobs most at risk. Materials and methods: The daily time series of work-related injuries in the industrial and services sector from the Italian national workers' compensation authority (INAIL) were collected for each of the 8090 Italian municipalities in the period 2006–2010. Daily air temperatures with a 1 × 1 km resolution derived from satellite land surface temperature data using mixed regression models were included. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to estimate the association between daily mean air temperature and injuries at municipal level. A meta-analysis was then carried out to retrieve national estimates. The relative risk (RR) and attributable cases of work-related injuries for an increase in mean temperature above the 75th percentile (heat) and for a decrease below the 25th percentile (cold) were estimated. Effect modification by gender, age, firm size, economic sector and job type were also assessed. Results: The study considered 2,277,432 occupational injuries occurred in Italy in the period 2006–2010. There were significant effects for both heat and cold temperatures. The overall relative risks (RR) of occupational injury for heat and cold were 1.17 (95% CI: 1.14–1.21) and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.17–1.30), respectively. The number of occupational injuries attributable to temperatures above and below the thresholds was estimated to be 5211 per year. A higher risk of injury on hot days was found among males and young (age 15–34) workers occupied in small-medium size firms, while the opposite was observed on cold days. Construction workers showed the highest risk of injuries on hot days while fishing, transport, electricity, gas and water distribution workers did it on cold days. Conclusions: Prevention of the occupational exposure to extreme temperatures is a concern for occupational health and safety policies, and will become a critical issue in future years considering climate change. Epidemiological studies may help identify vulnerable jobs, activities and workers in order to define prevention plans and training to reduce occupational exposure to extreme temperature and the risk of work-related injuries. Keywords: Climate change, Extreme outdoor air temperature, Occupational injuries, Heat impacts, Cold impacts, Case-crossover study

Summary: Background: Each high-risk HPV genotype has different oncogenic potential, and the risk of CIN3+ varies according to genotype. We evaluated the performance of different strategies of HPV-positivity triage combining cytology, p16/ki67 dual staining (DS), and extended genotyping. Methods: Samples from 3180 consecutive women from the NTCC2 study (NCT01837693) positive for HPV DNA at primary screening, were retrospectively analyzed by the BD Onclarity HPV Assay, which allows extended genotyping. Genotypes were divided into three groups based on the risk of CIN3+. HPV DNA-positive women were followed up for 24 months or to clearance. Findings: Combining the three groups of genotypes with cytology or DS results we identify a group of women who need immediate colposcopy (PPV for CIN3+ from 7.8 to 20.1%), a group that can be referred to 1-year HPV retesting (PPV in those HPV-positive at retesting from 2.2 to 3.8), and a group with a very low 24-month CIN3+ risk, i.e. 0.4%, composed by women cytology or DS negative and positive for HPV 56/59/66 or 35/39/68 or negative with the Onclarity test, who can be referred to 3-year retesting. Interpretation: Among the baseline HPV DNA positive/cytology or DS negative women, the extended genotyping allows to stratify for risk of CIN3+, and to identify a group of women with a risk of CIN3+ so low in the next 24 months that they could be referred to a new screening round after 3 years. Funding: Italian Ministry of Health (grant number RF-2009-1536040). Hologic-Genprobe, Roche Diagnostics, and Becton & Dickinson provided financial and non-financial support.

Objectives The aim of this study was to map and compare stakeholders’ perceptions of barriers towards cervical cancer screening for vulnerable women in seven European countries.Design In Collaborative User Boards, stakeholders were invited to participate to identify barriers towards participation in cervical cancer screening.Setting The study is nested in the European Union-funded project CBIG-SCREEN which aims to tackle inequity in cervical cancer screening for vulnerable women (www.cbig-screen.eu). Data collection took place in Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Italy, Portugal and Romania.Participants Participants represented micro-level stakeholders covering representatives of users, that is, vulnerable women, meso-level stakeholders covering healthcare professionals and social workers, and macro-level stakeholders covering programme managers and decision-makers.Methods Across the seven countries, 25 meetings in Collaborative User Boards with a duration of 2 hours took place between October 2021 and June 2022. The meetings were video recorded or audio recorded, transcribed and translated into English for a qualitative framework analysis.Results 120 participants took part in the Collaborative User Boards. Context-specific barriers were related to different healthcare systems and characteristics of vulnerable populations. In Romania and Bulgaria, the lack of a continuous screening effort and lack of ways to identify eligible women were identified as barriers for all women rather than being specific for women in vulnerable situations. The participants in Denmark, Estonia, France, Italy and Portugal identified providers’ lack of cultural and social sensitivity towards vulnerable women as barriers. In all countries, vulnerable women’s fear, shame and lack of priority to preventive healthcare were identified as psychological barriers.Conclusion The study provides an overview of stakeholders’ perceived barriers towards vulnerable women’s cervical cancer screening participation in seven European countries. The organisation of healthcare systems and the maturity of screening programmes differ between countries, while vulnerable women’s psychological barriers had several similarities.

Abstract Aims We aim to monitor and improve the quality of the heart failure (HF) integrated assistance model defined by national and regional guidelines and implemented in the province of Reggio Emilia, Italy. Specific aims of the audit were to estimate the prevalence of HF, describe the characteristics of patients with HF and the rate of patients enrolled in the integrated care treated in primary care, and identify socioeconomic and geographic determinants of the 4‐year survival of these patients. Methods and results Retrospective analysis of a cohort of prevalent cases of HF, diagnosed before 31 December 2015 in Reggio Emilia, Italy, alive on 1 January 2016, and residing at the time of diagnosis on the provincial territory. Age and sex‐adjusted prevalence of HF by area of residence were calculated according to the standard European population 2013. Patients were followed until death or 31 December 2019, whatever came first. The outcome measure of the study was four‐year case fatality. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, and duration of disease were used to determine the association between socio‐geographic factors and death. The 4‐year case‐fatality rate was 36.7%, and it was the highest in the mountains (50.8%) compared with hills (34.6%), lowland (35.4%) and city (37.7%). The prevalence of HF was the lowest in the mountain [149.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 112.1–187.7] and the highest in the lowland (340.8, 95% CI 308.7–372.9) and city (308, 95% CI 276.0–321.2). Patients living in the mountains had a lower deprivation index, and fewer hospitalizations prior to official diagnosis, although these characteristics were not statistically significant determinants of HF death in multivariate analysis. Behavioural (smoking and obesity) and socio‐geographic characteristics (educational level, deprivation index and area of residence) were not significantly associated with mortality in both univariable and multivariable analysis; however, patients who live in mountains (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% CI 0.73–1.66) or hills (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% CI 0.90–1.37) had a slightly higher risk of death than those living in the city. Only 197 (12.1%) of patients in the cohort were enrolled in the integrated care pathway over the course of 4 years. Conclusions Although clinical determinants outweigh the geographic and behavioural disparities in the survival of patients with CHF treated in primary care, effective prevention strategies are needed to address environmental and socio‐geographic inequalities in access to primary care and to hasten equitable linkage to integrated care.

Abstract Background Despite being at higher risk of severe disease and pregnancy complications, evidence on susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy is still limited. The aim of the study is to compare the likelihood of undergoing a SARS-CoV-2 test and testing positive for COVID-19 in pregnancy and puerperium with that of the general female population of reproductive age. Methods This is a retrospective population-based cohort study including 117,606 women of reproductive age (March 2020-September 2021) with 6608 (5.6%) women having ≥ 1 pregnancy. Women were linked to the pregnancy registry to be classified as “non-pregnant”, “pregnant”, and “puerperium”; then, according to the national case-based integrated COVID-19 surveillance system, all women undergoing a SARS-CoV-2 test during the study period were identified. The Incidence Rate Ratio was calculated to compare the likelihood of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 in pregnant, puerperium and non-pregnant women among all women included. The likelihood of having a COVID-19 diagnosis was calculated using two comparators (not-pregnant women and the person-time before/after pregnancy) by means of Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age and with the cluster option to control standard error calculation in repeated pregnancies. Only first infection and swabs before the first one positive were included. Results The probability of being tested for SARS-CoV-2 was 4.9 (95% CI: 4.8–5.1) and 3.6 times higher (95%CI: 3.4–3.9) in pregnancy (including spontaneous miscarriages) and in the puerperium, respectively. The Hazard Ratio (HR) of covid-19 diagnosis during pregnancy vs. non-pregnancy was 1.17 (95% CI 1.03–1.33) with similar results when comparing the risk during pregnancy with that of the same women outside pregnancy (puerperium excluded), with an HR of 1.13 (95% CI 0.96–1.33); the excess decreased when excluding the test performed at admission for delivery (HR 1.08 (95%CI 0.90–1.30). In the puerperium, the HR was 0.62 (95% CI 0.41–0.92) comparing women with ≥ 1childbirth with all other women and excluding the first two weeks of puerperium. Conclusions Women during pregnancy showed a small increase in the risk of infection, compatible with a higher likelihood of being tested. A lower probability of infection during the puerperium was observed during the entire pandemic period, suggesting likely protective behaviors which were effective in reducing their probability of infection.

Background: The aim of our study was to test the hypothesis that the community contact tracing strategy of testing contacts in households immediately instead of at the end of quarantine had an impact on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in schools in Reggio Emilia Province. Methods: We analysed surveillance data on notification of COVID-19 cases in schools between 1 September 2020 and 4 April 2021. We have applied a mediation analysis that allows for interaction between the intervention (before/after period) and the mediator. Results: Median tracing delay decreased from 7 to 3.1 days and the percentage of the known infection source increased from 34–54.8% (incident rate ratio-IRR 1.61 1.40–1.86). Implementation of prompt contact tracing was associated with a 10% decrease in the number of secondary cases (excess relative risk –0.1 95% CI –0.35–0.15). Knowing the source of infection of the index case led to a decrease in secondary transmission (IRR 0.75 95% CI 0.63–0.91) while the decrease in tracing delay was associated with decreased risk of secondary cases (1/IRR 0.97 95% CI 0.94–1.01 per one day of delay). The direct effect of the intervention accounted for the 29% decrease in the number of secondary cases (excess relative risk –0.29 95%–0.61 to 0.03). Conclusions: Prompt contact testing in the community reduces the time of contact tracing and increases the ability to identify the source of infection in school outbreaks. Although there are strong reasons for thinking it is a causal link, observed differences can be also due to differences in the force of infection and to other control measures put in place. Funding: This project was carried out with the technical and financial support of the Italian Ministry of Health – CCM 2020 and Ricerca Corrente Annual Program 2023.

Colorectal cancer emerged as the third most prevalent malignancy worldwide, affecting nearly 2 million individuals in the year 2020. This study elucidates the pivotal role of a multidisciplinary team (MDT) in influencing the prognosis, as measured by relative survival rates, depending upon the stage and age. Cases recorded in an Italian Cancer Registry between 2017 and 2018 were included. Relative survival was reported at 1 and 3 years after diagnosis comparing MDT vs. no-MDT approaches. During the study period, 605 CRCs were recorded while 361 (59.7%) were taken care of by an MDT. Compared to no-MDT, MDT patients were younger with earlier stages and received more surgery. One year after diagnosis, survival was 78.7% (90% in MDT vs. 62% in no-MDT); stratifying by stage, in the MDT group there was no survival advantage for stage I (97.2% vs. 89.9%) and II (96.8% vs. 89.4%), but an advantage was observed for stage III (86.4% vs. 56.9%) and stage IV (63.7% vs. 27.4%). Similar values were observed at 3 years where a marked advantage was observed for stages III (69.9% vs. 35.1%) and IV (29.2% vs. 5.1%). The univariable analysis confirmed an excess risk in the no-MDT group (HR 2.6; 95% CI 2.0–3.3), also confirmed in the multivariable regression analysis (HR 2.0; 95% CI 1.5–2.5). Despite the increase in the number of MDT patients in 2018 (from 50% to 69%), this does not correspond to an improvement in outcome.

Introduction Despite strong evidence for the efficacy of low-radiation dose CT (LDCT) in reducing lung cancer (LC) mortality, implementing LC screening (LCS) programmes remains a challenge. We aim to systematically review the evidence on the strategies used to recruit the adult population at risk of LC to LDCT within LCS programmes and to estimate the effectiveness of interventions identified, used to reach the potentially eligible population, increase participation and informed choice, and ensure equitable access.Methods and analysis This sequential systematic literature review will consist of three steps: (1) a scoping review of existing strategies and organisational models for LCS; (2) selecting papers reporting relevant outcomes (test coverage, screening participation and informed choice) and comparing results among different models; (3) a systematic review of interventions implemented to increase participation in LCS programmes. Each step will follow the methodological guidelines provided by the Cochrane Collaboration and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. Data sources include electronic databases such as Medline (PubMed version), Embase, CINAHL (Ebsco version), Scopus and Cochrane CENTRAL. The search will be limited to studies published from January 2000 to March 2023 in English, Italian, French, Spanish, Serbian and Croatian language. Findings will be synthesised quantitatively and qualitatively as appropriate. Risk of bias assessment will be only applied to studies selected in the second and third steps. The quality of evidence will be summarised for each outcome using the Grading Recommendation Assessment, Development and Evaluation methodology.Ethics and dissemination Given that this is a review of existing literature, ethics approval is not required. The results will be published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and presented at relevant conferences. The findings of this review will help guide health authorities in organising LCS programmes and developing recommendations, policies, and actions at national and regional levels.PROSPERO registration number CRD42023408357.

This study aimed to evaluate smoking cessation (SC) motivation and the acceptability of a lung cancer screening (LCS) program with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) among people who attend SC programs. A multicenter survey was conducted in the period January-December 2021 involving 197 people who attended group or individual SC courses in Reggio Emilia and Tuscany. Questionnaires, information sheets, and decision aids about the potential benefits and harms of LCS with LDCT were distributed at different time points during the course. The wish to protect own health (66%) was the most frequent reason given for quitting smoking, followed by cigarette dependence (40.6%) and current health problems (30.5%). Half of the participants (56%) considered periodic health checks including LDCT, as an advantageous activity. The great majority of participants were in favor of LCS (92%), with only 8% being indifferent, and no one was against these programs. Interestingly, those with sufficiently high smoking-related LC risk to be eligible for LCS and those attending the individual course were less in favor of LCS but also less concerned about the possible harms associated with LCS. The type of counseling was a significant predictor for both LCS acceptability and perceived harm of LCS. The favorable perception of LCS in people attending SC courses, despite the considerable preoccupation with potential harms, is an important finding of this study. Introducing a discussion on the benefits and harms of LCS in SC programs may prepare persons who smoke to make informed decisions on utilizing LCS.

Abstract Objective The aim of this study is to describe the prevalence of HPV types in invasive cervical cancers in Italy from 1996 to 2008. Methods A pooled analysis of the three largest case series typed to date was performed. HPV typing was performed on paraffin-embedded slices. Molecular analyses were performed in four laboratories. Multivariate analyses were performed to test the associations between calendar time, age, and geographical area and the proportion of types 16/18. Results Out of 574 cancers, 24 (4.2%) were HPV negative. HPV 16 and 18 were responsible for 74.4% (378/508) and 80.3% (49/61) of the squamous cancers and adenocarcinomas, respectively. Other frequent types were 31 (9.5%), 45 (6.4%), and 58 (3.3%) for squamous cancers and 45 (13.3%), 31, 35, and 58 (5.0%) for adenocarcinomas. The proportion of HPV 16 and/or 18 decreased with age (p-value for trend Conclusions The impact of HPV 16/18 vaccine on cervical cancer will be greater for early onset cancers. In vaccinated women, screening could be started at an older age without reducing protection.

Abstract Background HPV type distribution by cytological status represents useful information to predict the impact of mass vaccination on screening programs. Methods women aged from 25 to 64 who attended cervical cancer screening in five different Italian regions were tested for HPV infection with Hybrid Capture II (HCII) low and high risk probes. Women repeating Pap-test upon unsatisfactory or positive results, or as a post-treatment and post-colposcopy follow-up analysis, were excluded from our study. High risk (HR) HPV positive samples were typed using GP5+/GP6+ primed PCR, followed by Reverse Line Blot for 18 high/intermediate risk HPV types, while low risk (LR) HPV positive samples were tested with type specific primers for HPV6 and HPV11. Results 3410 women had a valid HCII and Pap-test. The prevalence of HR and LR infections was 7.0% and 3.6%, 29.1% and 13.7%, 68.1% and 31.9%, 60.0% and 0.0%, 65.0% and 12.0%, for negative, ASC-US, L-SIL, ASC-H and H-SIL cytology, respectively. The fraction of ASC-US+ cytology due to HPV 16 and 18 ranged from 11.2 (HPV 16/18 alone) to 15.4% (including HPV 16/18 in co-infection with other virus strains), and that due to HPV 6 and 11 ranged from 0.2% (HPV 6/11 alone) to 0.7% (including HPV 6/11 in co-infection with other LR virus strains). Conclusions mass vaccination with bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccine would modestly impact on prevalence of abnormal Pap-test in screening.

Abstract Background This multicenter study describes the type-specific prevalence of HPV infection in the general population from central and southern Italy, comparing the data with previously published Italian studies. Methods Women aged from 25 to 65 who attended cervical cancer screening in five different Italian regions were tested for HPV infection with Hybrid Capture II (HCII) low and high risk probes. Women repeating Pap-test upon unsatisfactory or positive results, or as a post-treatment and post-colposcopy follow-up analysis, were excluded from our study. High risk (HR) HPV positive samples were typed using GP5+/GP6+ primed PCR, followed by Reverse Line Blot for 18 high/intermediate risk HPV types, while low risk (LR) HPV positive samples were tested with type specific primers for HPV6 and HPV11. Results 3817 women had a valid HCII test: 350 of them (9.2%) were positive for HR probes, 160 (4.2%) for LR probes, while 57 women were positive for both. Multiple infections were detected in 97 HR HPV positive women. The most common types were HPV 16 (3%), 31 (1.2%), 51 (1%). HPV6 ranked fifth (0.6%), HPV18 ranked tenth (0.5%) and HPV11 sixteenth (0.3%). In Sardinia the prevalence of high-risk infection was 13%, significantly higher than the mean value (p < 0.00005). The distribution of the most frequent types did not significantly differ by centre (p = 0.187) and age (p = 0.085). Conclusions Because cervical cancer incidence and Pap test coverage is lower in southern than in northern Italy, a lower prevalence of high-risk infections in the general population was expected in the south. However, prevalence detected in this study for the south of the country is slightly but significantly higher than the rest of Italy. The consequence may be an epidemic of cervical cancer in the next decades if adequate screening programs are not implemented there.

Abstract Background Monitoring the incidence of bacterial meningitis is important to plan and evaluate preventive polices. The study's aim was to estimate the incidence of bacterial meningitis by aetiological agent in the period 2001–2005, in Lazio Italy (5.3 mln inhabitants). Methods Data collected from four sources – hospital surveillance of bacterial meningitis, laboratory information system, the mandatory infectious diseases notifications, and hospital information system – were combined into a single archive. Results 944 cases were reported, 89% were classified as community acquired. S. pneumoniae was the most frequent aetiological agent in Lazio, followed by N. meningitis. Incidence of H. influenzae decreased during the period. 17% of the cases had an unknown aetiology and 13% unspecified bacteria. The overall incidence was 3.7/100,000. Children under 1 year were most affected (50.3/100.000), followed by 1–4 year olds (12.5/100,000). The percentage of meningitis due to aetiological agents included in the vaccine targets, not considering age, is 31%. Streptococcus spp. was the primary cause of meningitis in the first three months of life. The capture-recapture model estimated underreporting at 17.2% of the overall incidence. Conclusion Vaccine policies should be planned and monitored based on these results. The integrated surveillance system allowed us to observe a drop in H. influenzae b meningitis incidence consequent to the implementation of a mass vaccination of newborns.

Abstract Background Emergency Clinical Pathways (ECP) for stroke have never been tested in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Objective To evaluate the effectiveness of an ECP for stroke patients in Latium (Italy) emergency system. Methods cluster-RCT designed to compare stroke patient referrals by Emergency Medical Service (EMS) and Emergency Room (ER) health professionals trained in the ECP, with those of non-trained EMS and ER controls. Primary outcome measure was the proportion of eligible (aged ≤ 80 and symptom onset ≤ 6 hours) stroke patients referred to a stroke unit (SU). Intention to treat (ITT) and per-protocol (PP) analyses were performed, and risk ratios (RR) adjusted by age, gender and area, were calculated. Results 2656 patients in the intervention arm and 2239 in the control arm required assistance; 78.3% of the former and 80.6% of the latter were admitted to hospitals, and respectively 74.8% and 78.3% were confirmed strokes. Of the eligible confirmed strokes, 106/434 (24.4%) in the intervention arm and 43/328 (13.1%) in the control arm were referred to the SU in the ITT analysis (RR = 2.01; 95% CI: 0.79–4.00), and respectively 105/243 (43.2%) and 43/311 (13.8%) in the PP analysis (RR = 3.21; 95%CI: 1.62–4.98). Of patients suitable for i.v. thrombolysis, 15/175 (8.6%) in the intervention arm and 2/115 (1.7%) in the control arm received thrombolysis (p = 0.02) in the ITT analysis, and respectively 15/99 (15.1%) and 2/107 (1.9%)(p = 0.001) in the PP analysis. Conclusion Our data suggest potenti efficiency and feasibility of an ECP. The integration of EMS and ERs with SU networks for organised acute stroke care is feasible and may ameliorate the quality of care for stroke patients. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials (ISRCTN41456865).

Abstract Background Screening programmes should be organized to translate theoretical efficacy into effectiveness. An evidence-based organizational model of colorectal cancer screening (CRCS) should assure feasibility and high compliance. Methods A multidisciplinary Working Group (WG), reviewed literature and guidelines to define evidence-based recommendations. The WG identified the need for further local studies: physicians' CRCS attitudes, the effect of test type and provider on compliance, and individual reasons for non-compliance. A survey of digestive endoscopy services was conducted. A feasibility study on a target population of 300.000 has begun. Results Based on the results of population trials and on literature review the screening strategy adopted was Faecal Occult Blood Test (FOBT) every two years for 50–74 year olds and, for positives, colonoscopy. The immunochemical test was chosen because it has 20% higher compliance than the Guaiac. GPs were chosen as the preferred provider also for higher compliance. Since we observed that distance is the major determinant of non-compliance, we choose GPs because they are the closest providers, both geographically and emotionally, to the public. The feasibility study showed several barriers: GP participation was low, there were administrative problems to involve GPs; opportunistic testing by the GPs; difficulties in access to Gastroenterology centres; difficulties in gathering colonoscopy results; little time given to screening activity by the gastroenterology centre. Conclusion The feasibility study highlighted several limits of the model. Most of the barriers that emerged were consequences of organisational choices not supported by evidence. The principal limit was a lack of accountability by the participating centres.

Abstract Background currently road accidents are mostly monitored through mortality and injury rates. This paper reports the methodology and the results of a project set forth by the European Union (EU) and coordinated by the WHO aimed at identifying and evaluating a core set of indicators to monitor the causal chain of road accident health effects. The project is part of the ECOEHIS (Development of Environment and Health Indicators for European Union Countries). Methods a group of experts (WG), identified 14 indicators after a review of the information collected at the EU level, each of them representing a specific aspect of the DPSEEA (Driving, Pressure, State, Exposure, Effect, Action) model applied and adapted to the road accidents. Each indicator was scored according to a list of 16 criteria chosen by the WG. Those found to have a high score were analysed to determine if they were compatible with EU legislation and then tested in the feasibility study. Results 11 of the 14 indicators found to be relevant and compatible with the criteria of selection were proposed for the feasibility study. Mortality, injury, road accident rate, age of vehicle fleet, and distance travelled are the indicators recommended for immediate implementation. Conclusion after overcoming the limitations that emerged (absence of a common definition of death by road accident and injury severity, underestimation of injuries, differences in information quality) this core set of indicators will allow Member States to carry out effective internal/external comparisons over time.

Abstract Background The cytological screening programme of Viterbo has completed the second round of invitations to the entire target population (age 25–64). From a public health perspective, it is important to know the Pap-test coverage rate and the use of opportunistic screening. The most commonly used study design is the survey, but the validity of self-reports and the assumptions made about non respondents are often questioned. Methods From the target population, 940 women were sampled, and responded to a telephone interview about Pap-test utilisation. The answers were compared with the screening program registry; comparing the dates of Pap-tests reported by both sources. Sensitivity analyses were performed for coverage over a 36-month period, according to various assumptions regarding non respondents. Results The response rate was 68%. The coverage over 36 months was 86.4% if we assume that non respondents had the same coverage as respondents, 66% if we assume they were not covered at all, and 74.6% if we adjust for screening compliance in the non respondents. The sensitivity and specificity of the question, "have you ever had a Pap test with the screening programme" were 84.5% and 82.2% respectively. The test dates reported in the interview tended to be more recent than those reported in the registry, but 68% were within 12 months of each other. Conclusion Surveys are useful tools to understand the effectiveness of a screening programme and women's self-report was sufficiently reliable in our setting, but the coverage estimates were strongly influenced by the assumptions we made regarding non respondents.

Abstract Background The major limit to colorectal cancer screening effectiveness is often low compliance. We studied the reasons for non compliance and determinants of compliance to faecal occult blood tests in Lazio, Italy. Methods This is a case-control study nested within a trial that tested the effect of type of test and provider on colorectal cancer screening compliance. Non compliant trial subjects were classified as cases, and compliant subjects were classified as controls. We sampled 600 cases and 600 controls matched by their general practitioner, half were invited for screening at the hospital, and the other half directly at their general practitioner's office. Cases and controls answered questions on: distance from test provider, logistical problems, perception of colorectal cancer risk, confidence in screening efficacy, fear of results, presence of colorectal cancer in the family, and gastrointestinal symptoms. Results About 31% of cases never received the letter offering free screening, and 17% of the sampled population had already been screened. The first reported reason for non-compliance was "lack of time" (30%); the major determinant of compliance was the distance from the test provider: odds ratio >30 minutes vs Conclusion To increase compliance, screening programmes must involve test providers who are geographically close to the target population.

Different monitoring and control policies have been implemented in schools to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Transmission in schools has been hard to quantify due to the large proportion of asymptomatic carriers in young individuals. We applied a Bayesian approach to reconstruct the transmission chains between 284 SARS-CoV-2 infections ascertained during 87 school outbreak investigations conducted between March and April 2021 in Italy. Under the policy of reactive quarantines, we found that 42.5% (95%CrI: 29.5–54.3%) of infections among school attendees were caused by school contacts. The mean number of secondary cases infected at school by a positive individual during in-person education was estimated to be 0.33 (95%CrI: 0.23–0.43), with marked heterogeneity across individuals. Specifically, we estimated that only 26.0% (95%CrI: 17.6–34.1%) of students and school personnel who tested positive during in-person education caused at least one secondary infection at school. Positive individuals who attended school for at least 6 days before being isolated or quarantined infected on average 0.49 (95%CrI: 0.14–0.83) secondary cases. Our findings provide quantitative insights on the contribution of school transmission to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in young individuals. Identifying positive cases within 5 days after exposure to their infector could reduce onward transmission at school by at least 30%.

Objectives The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence, entity and local distribution of arterial wall calcifications evaluated on CT scans in patients with large vessel vasculitis (LVV) and patients with lymphoma as reference for the population without LVV.Methods All consecutive patients diagnosed with LVVs with available baseline positron emission tomography-CT (PET-CT) scan performed between 2007 and 2019 were included; non-LVV patients were lymphoma patients matched by age (±5 years), sex and year of baseline PET-CT (≤2013; >2013). CT images derived from baseline PET-CT scans of both patient groups were retrospectively reviewed by a single radiologist who, after setting a threshold of minimum 130 Hounsfield units, semiautomatically computed vascular calcifications in three separate locations (coronaries, thoracic and abdominal arteries), quantified as Agatston and volume scores.Results A total of 266 patients were included. Abdominal artery calcifications were equally distributed (mean volume 3220 in LVVs and 2712 in lymphomas). Being in the LVVs group was associated with the presence of thoracic calcifications after adjusting by age and year of diagnosis (OR 4.13, 95% CI 1.35 to 12.66; p=0.013). Similarly, LVVs group was significantly associated with the volume score in the thoracic arteries (p=0.048). In patients >50 years old, calcifications in the coronaries were more extended in non-LVV patients (p=0.027 for volume).Conclusion When compared with patients without LVVs, LVVs patients have higher calcifications in the thoracic arteries, but not in coronary and abdominal arteries.

BackgroundHematological malignancies (HMs) represent a heterogeneous group of diseases with diverse etiology, pathogenesis, and prognosis. HMs’ accurate registration by Cancer Registries (CRs) is hampered by the progressive de-hospitalization of patients and the transition to molecular rather than microscopic diagnosis.Material and methodsA dedicated software capable of automatically identifying suspected HMs cases by combining several databases was adopted by Reggio Emilia Province CR (RE-CR). Besides pathological reports, hospital discharge archives, and mortality records, RE-CR retrieved information from general and biomolecular laboratories. Incidence, mortality, and 5-year relative survival (RS) reported according to age, sex, and 4 HMs’ main categories, were noted.ResultsOverall, 7,578 HM cases were diagnosed from 1996 to 2020 by RE-CR. HMs were more common in males and older patients, except for Hodgkin Lymphoma and Follicular Lymphoma (FL). Incidence showed a significant increase for FL (annual percent change (APC)=3.0), Myeloproliferative Neoplasms (MPN) in the first period (APC=6.0) followed by a significant decrease (APC=-7.4), and Myelodysplastic Syndromes (APC=16.4) only in the first period. Over the years, a significant increase was observed in 5-year RS for Hodgkin -, Marginal Zone -, Follicular - and Diffuse Large B-cell-Lymphomas, MPN, and Acute Myeloid Leukemia. The availability of dedicated software made it possible to recover 80% of cases automatically: the remaining 20% required direct consultation of medical records.ConclusionsThe study emphasizes that HM registration needs to collect information from multiple sources. The digitalization of CRs is necessary to increase their efficiency.

The objective of this study was to compare the effect of diabetes and pathologies potentially related to diabetes on the risk of infection and death from COVID-19 among people from Highly-Developed-Country (HDC), including Italians, and immigrants from the High-Migratory-Pressure-Countries (HMPC). Among the population with diabetes, whose prevalence is known to be higher among immigrants, we compared the effect of body mass index among HDC and HMPC populations. A population-based cohort study was conducted, using population registries and routinely collected surveillance data. The population was stratified into HDC and HMPC, according to the place of birth; moreover, a focus was set on the South Asiatic population. Analyses restricted to the population with type-2 diabetes were performed. We reported incidence (IRR) and mortality rate ratios (MRR) and hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) to estimate the effect of diabetes on SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 mortality. Overall, IRR of infection and MRR from COVID-19 comparing HMPC with HDC group were 0.84 (95% CI 0.82–0.87) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.46–0.99), respectively. The effect of diabetes on the risk of infection and death from COVID-19 was slightly higher in the HMPC population than in the HDC population (HRs for infection: 1.37 95% CI 1.22–1.53 vs. 1.20 95% CI 1.14–1.25; HRs for mortality: 3.96 95% CI 1.82–8.60 vs. 1.71 95% CI 1.50–1.95, respectively). No substantial difference in the strength of the association was observed between obesity or other comorbidities and SARS-CoV-2 infection. Similarly for COVID-19 mortality, HRs for obesity (HRs: 18.92 95% CI 4.48–79.87 vs. 3.91 95% CI 2.69–5.69) were larger in HMPC than in the HDC population, but differences could be due to chance. Among the population with diabetes, the HMPC group showed similar incidence (IRR: 0.99 95% CI: 0.88–1.12) and mortality (MRR: 0.89 95% CI: 0.49–1.61) to that of HDC individuals. The effect of obesity on incidence was similar in both HDC and HMPC populations (HRs: 1.73 95% CI 1.41–2.11 among HDC vs. 1.41 95% CI 0.63–3.17 among HMPC), although the estimates were very imprecise. Despite a higher prevalence of diabetes and a stronger effect of diabetes on COVID-19 mortality in HMPC than in the HDC population, our cohort did not show an overall excess risk of COVID-19 mortality in immigrants.

Background: In Italy, regions have the mandate to implement population-based screening programs for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer. From March to May 2020, a severe lockdown was imposed due to the COVID-19 pandemic by the Italian Ministry of Health, with the suspension of screening programs. This paper describes the impact of the pandemic on Italian screening activities and test coverage in 2020 overall and by socioeconomic characteristics. Methods: The regional number of subjects invited and of screening tests performed in 2020 were compared with those in 2019. Invitation and examination coverage were also calculated. PASSI surveillance system, through telephone interviews, collects information about screening test uptake by test provider (public screening and private opportunistic). Test coverage and test uptake in the last year were computed by educational attainment, perceived economic difficulties, and citizenship. Results: A reduction of subjects invited and tests performed, with differences between periods and geographical macro areas, was observed in 2020 vs. 2019. The reduction in examination coverage was larger than that in invitation coverage for all screening programs. From the second half of 2020, the trend for test coverage showed a decrease in all the macro areas for all the screening programs. Compared with the pre-pandemic period, there was a greater difference according to the level of education in the odds of having had a test last year vs. never having been screened or not being up to date with screening tests. Conclusions: The lockdown and the ongoing COVID-19 emergency caused an important delay in screening activities. This increased the preexisting individual and geographical inequalities in access. The opportunistic screening did not mitigate the impact of the pandemic. Funding: This study was partially supported by Italian Ministry of Health – Ricerca Corrente Annual Program 2023 and by the Emilian Region DGR 839/22.

To investigate the association between biochemical and blood parameters collected before the pandemic in a large cohort of Italian blood donors with the risk of infection and severe disease. We also focused on the differences between the pre- and post-Omicron spread in Italy (i.e., pre- and post-January 01, 2022) on the observed associations. We conducted an observational cohort study on 13750 blood donors was conducted using data archived up to 5 years before the pandemic. A t-test or chi-squared test was used to compare differences between groups. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Subgroup analyses stratified by sex, age and epidemic phase of first infection (pre- and post-Omicron spread) were examined. We confirmed a protective effect of groups B and O, while groups A and AB had a higher likelihood of infection and severe disease. However, these associations were only significant in the pre-Omicron period. We found an opposite behavior after Omicron spread, with the O phenotype having a higher probability of infection. When stratified by variant, A antigen appeared to protect against Omicron infection, whereas it was associated with an increased risk of infection by earlier variants. We were able to stratify for the SARS CoV-2 dominant variant, which revealed a causal association between blood group and probability of infection, as evidenced by the strong effect modification observed between the pre- and post-Omicron spread. The mechanism by which group A acts on the probability of infection should consider this strong effect modification.

People with a history of cancer have a higher risk of death when infected with SARS-CoV-2. COVID-19 vaccines in cancer patients proved safe and effective, even if efficacy may be lower than in the general population. In this population-based study, we compare the risk of dying of cancer patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in 2021, vaccinated or non-vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 and residing in Friuli Venezia Giulia or in the province of Reggio Emilia. An amount of 800 deaths occurred among 6583 patients; the risk of death was more than three times higher among unvaccinated compared to vaccinated ones [HR 3.4; 95% CI 2.9–4.1]. The excess risk of death was stronger in those aged 70–79 years [HR 4.6; 95% CI 3.2–6.8], in patients with diagnosis made

Despite novel treatment approaches, oral cancer survival has not improved significantly and the disease often presents a disabling path for patients. The aim of this work was to describe the epidemiological data of oral cancers in a province of northern Italy. Incident cases in the period 1996–2020 and EU population standardized rates were reported for Oral Cavity cancer (OC) and OroPharyngeal cancer (OP). Annual percent changes (APC) were estimated with joint point analysis. The 5-year survival was calculated in three different periods: 1996–2000, 2001–2010 and 2011–2015. From 1996 to 2020, 771 cases of oral cancers (442 OC and 329 OP) were recorded with the age-standardized incidence rate 7.28 (10.74 in males and 3.97 in females): 3.82 for OC and 3.47 for OP. In males there is a significant increase in the incidence of OP up to 2017 (APC 11; 95% CI, 4.9–17.5), which then decreases; in females the rates are constant. In 2020 (the era of Covid-19), we did not see a decline in incidence compared to 2019. The 5-year survival (for cases diagnosed in 2011–2015) was 55.6%, 56.5% and 56% for OC, OP and OC + OP, respectively; it was somewhat higher in females and was undergoing some changes over the course of years. The number of prevalent cases as of 1 January 2021 is 314 (175 OC, 139 OP). The study showed a decline in cancers in men, particularly for OP; survival shows improvement in the long-term examined; Covid-19 had no negative impact on 2020 diagnoses.

Summary: Background: Starting from the final months of 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant expanded globally, swiftly replacing Delta, the variant that was dominant at the time. Many uncertainties remain about the epidemiology of Omicron; here, we aim to estimate its generation time. Methods: We used a Bayesian approach to analyze 23,122 SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals clustered in 8903 households as determined from contact tracing operations in Reggio Emilia, Italy, throughout January 2022. We estimated the distribution of the intrinsic generation time (the time between the infection dates of an infector and its secondary cases in a fully susceptible population), realized household generation time, realized serial interval (time between symptom onset of an infector and its secondary cases), and contribution of pre-symptomatic transmission. Findings: We estimated a mean intrinsic generation time of 6.84 days (95% credible intervals, CrI, 5.72–8.60), and a mean realized household generation time of 3.59 days (95%CrI: 3.55–3.60). The household serial interval was 2.38 days (95%CrI 2.30–2.47) with about 51% (95%CrI 45–56%) of infections caused by symptomatic individuals being generated before symptom onset. Interpretation: These results indicate that the intrinsic generation time of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant might not have shortened as compared to previous estimates on ancestral lineages, Alpha and Delta, in the same geographic setting. Like for previous lineages, pre-symptomatic transmission appears to play a key role for Omicron transmission. Estimates in this study may be useful to design quarantine, isolation and contact tracing protocols and to support surveillance (e.g., for the accurate computation of reproduction numbers). Funding: The study was partially funded by EU grant 874850 MOOD.

This study aimed to summarise different interventions used to improve clinical models and pathways in the management of chronic and acute heart failure (HF). A scoping review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement. MEDLINE (via PubMed), Embase, The Cochrane Library, and CINAHL were searched for systematic reviews (SR) published in the period from 2014 to 2019 in the English language. Primary articles cited in SR that fulfil inclusion and exclusion criteria were extracted and examined using narrative synthesis. Interventions were classified based on five chosen elements of the Chronic Care Model (CCM) framework (self-management support, decision support, community resources and policies, delivery system, and clinical information system). Out of 155 SRs retrieved, 7 were considered for the extraction of 166 primary articles. The prevailing setting was the patient’s home. Only 46 studies specified the severity of HF by reporting the level of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) impairment in a heterogeneous manner. However, most studies targeted the populations with LVEF ≤ 45% and LVEF < 40%. Self-management and delivery systems were the most evaluated CCM elements. Interventions related to community resources and policy and advising/reminding systems for providers were rarely evaluated. No studies addressed the implementation of a disease registry. A multidisciplinary team was available with similarly low frequency in each setting. Although HF care should be a multi-component model, most studies did not analyse the role of some important components, such as the decision support tools to disseminate guidelines and program planning that includes measurable targets.

Objective We aimed at identifying baseline predictive factors for emergency department (ED) readmission, with hospitalisation/death, in patients with COVID-19 previously discharged from the ED. We also developed a disease progression velocity index.Design and setting Retrospective cohort study of prospectively collected data. The charts of consecutive patients with COVID-19 discharged from the Reggio Emilia (Italy) ED (2 March 2 to 31 March 2020) were retrospectively examined. Clinical, laboratory and CT findings at first ED admission were tested as predictive factors using multivariable logistic models. We divided CT extension by days from symptom onset to build a synthetic velocity index.Participants 450 patients discharged from the ED with diagnosis of COVID-19.Main outcome measure ED readmission within 14 days, followed by hospitalisation/death.Results Of the discharged patients, 84 (18.7%) were readmitted to the ED, 61 (13.6%) were hospitalised and 10 (2.2%) died. Age (OR=1.05; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.08), Charlson Comorbidity Index 3 versus 0 (OR=11.61; 95% CI 1.76 to 76.58), days from symptom onset (OR for 1-day increase=0.81; 95% CI 0.73 to 0.90) and CT extension (OR for 1% increase=1.03; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.06) were associated in a multivariable model for readmission with hospitalisation/death. A 2-day lag velocity index was a strong predictor (OR for unit increase=1.21, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.36); the model including this index resulted in less information loss.Conclusions A velocity index combining CT extension and days from symptom onset predicts disease progression in patients with COVID-19. For example, a 20% CT extension 3 days after symptom onset has the same risk as does 50% after 10 days.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of adipose tissue characteristics with survival in rectal cancer patients. All consecutive patients, diagnosed with stage II–IV rectal cancer between 2010–2016 using baseline unenhanced Computed Tomography (CT), were included. Baseline total, subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue areas (TAT, SAT, VAT) and densities (TATd, SATd, VATd) at third lumbar vertebra (L3) were retrospectively measured. The association of these tissues with cancer-specific and progression-free survival (CCS, PFS) was assessed by using competitive risk models adjusted by age, sex and stage. Among the 274 included patients (median age 70 years, 41.2% females), the protective effect of increasing adipose tissue area on survival could be due to random fluctuations (e.g., sub-distribution hazard ratio—SHR for one cm2 increase in SAT = 0.997; 95%confidence interval—CI = 0.994–1.000; p = 0.057, for CSS), while increasing density was associated with poorer survival (e.g., SHR for one Hounsfield Unit—HU increase in SATd = 1.03, 95% CI = 1.01–1.05, p = 0.002, for CSS). In models considering each adipose tissue area and respective density, the association with CSS tended to disappear for areas, while it did not change for TATd and SATd. No association was found with PFS. In conclusion, adipose tissue density influenced survival in rectal cancer patients, raising awareness on a routinely measurable variable that requires more research efforts.

BackgroundCOVID-19 prognostic factors include age, sex, comorbidities, laboratory and imaging findings, and time from symptom onset to seeking care.PurposeThe study aim was to evaluate indices combining disease severity measures and time from disease onset to predict mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED).Materials and methodsAll consecutive COVID-19 patients who underwent both computed tomography (CT) and chest X-ray (CXR) at ED presentation between 27/02/2020 and 13/03/2020 were included. CT visual score of disease extension and CXR Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score were collected. The CT- and CXR-based scores, C-reactive protein (CRP), and oxygen saturation levels (sO2) were separately combined with time from symptom onset to ED presentation to obtain severity/time indices. Multivariable regression age- and sex-adjusted models without and with severity/time indices were compared. For CXR-RALE, the models were tested in a validation cohort.ResultsOf the 308 included patients, 55 (17.9%) died. In multivariable logistic age- and sex-adjusted models for death at 30 days, severity/time indices showed good discrimination ability, higher for imaging than for laboratory measures (AUCCT = 0.92, AUCCXR = 0.90, AUCCRP = 0.88, AUCsO2 = 0.88). AUCCXR was lower in the validation cohort (0.79). The models including severity/time indices performed slightly better than models including measures of disease severity not combined with time and those including the Charlson Comorbidity Index, except for CRP-based models.ConclusionTime from symptom onset to ED admission is a strong prognostic factor and provides added value to the interpretation of imaging and laboratory findings at ED presentation.