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A. Background and Goals: It is now well known that patient medical history (or trajectories) is of crucial importance for both prognosis and optimal treatment selection for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients. This longitudinal data is nowadays being collected more systematically and its availability in patient registries opens the way towards precision medicine in MS. However, this information is very challenging to process computationally. By their observational nature, longitudinal patient data are scarcely and irregularly observed (i.e. only few observations are scattered over the whole patient history). Several works have recently attempted to address this issue by substituting full patient history with summary statistics in the modelling (i.e. using metrics such as the maximum and minimum disability score over the patient history as a proxy for the full medical trajectory). This strategy potentially discards relevant prognostic information. In this work, we present a method capable of handling the full information about disease history and its value for individual prognostic modelling. B. Method(s): We propose a novel statistical method relying on state-of-the-art machine learning models (Bayesian Probabilistic Tensor Factorisation, BPTF). Due to its generative nature, this method is able to process the full MS patient trajectories as input to deliver predictions. We infer the tensor decomposition (rank 70) with Gibbs sampling. To illustrate the performances of our approach, we consider the challenging task of predicting patient worsening within 2 years from current visit using 3 years clinical history. Patient worsening was defined with the 2 strata definition of disability progression as in Kalincik et al. (Brain, 2015). Available longitudinal data include Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), magnetic resonance imaging and relapses. Patient static covariates include, among others, age at onset, gender, disease course and first observed EDSS. C. Result(s): W

Introduction: A decision to discontinue MS immunotherapies is common in clinical practice - whether in order to switch to another therapy or at an advanced stage of progressive MS without relapses. The evidence regarding individual risk of MS re-activation after treatment discontinuation is limited. Aim(s): To evaluate associations of demographic and clinical patient characteristics with the risk of relapses after discontinuing treatment. Both overall and treatment-specific associations are explored. Method(s): Using the global MSBase registry, we identified all patients who discontinued MS immunotherapy after >=3 months on treatment, with the recorded disability score (EDSS) at the time of discontinuing treatment, and prospectively recorded follow-up of >=6 months. The probability of experiencing a relapse after discontinuing treatment, conditional on patient characteristics, was analysed with Cox proportional hazards model. Differences in these associations among different therapies were studied with interaction terms. Result(s): 24,989 episodes of treatment discontinuation were recorded from 17,871 patients (74% female, mean age at discontinuation 39 years, 88% relapsing-remitting MS, mean MS duration 10 years, median EDSS 2.5). The patient characteristics associated with a lower hazard of MS re-activation were male sex (b=0.87, p< 0.001), older age (b=0.98, p< 0.001), MS duration (b=1.01, p< 0.001), secondary progressive MS (b=0.73, p< 0.001), longer treatment duration (0.95, p< 0.001), greater number of prior treatments (1: b=0.62, p< 0.001; >=2: b=0.39, p< 0.001) and greater number of relapses during the previous year (1: b=1.30, p< 0.001; >=2: b=1.62, p< 0.001). The characteristics associated with a greater risk of MS re-activation were clinically isolated syndrome (b=1.87, p< 0.001) and greater EDSS (4-5.5: b=1.41, p< 0.001; >=6: b=1.17, p=0.001). Therapies used more recently (dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, natalizumab) tended to be associated with a lower h

BACKGROUND: Several natural history studies on primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) patients detected a consistent heterogeneity in the rate of disability accumulation. OBJECTIVES: To identify subgroups of PPMS patients with similar longitudinal trajectories of Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) over time. METHODS: All PPMS patients collected within the MSBase registry, who had their first EDSS assessment within 5 years from onset, were included in the analysis. Longitudinal EDSS scores were modeled by a latent class mixed model (LCMM), using a nonlinear function of time from onset. LCMM is an advanced statistical approach that models heterogeneity between patients by classifying them into unobserved groups showing similar characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 853 PPMS (51.7% females) from 24 countries with a mean age at onset of 42.4 years (standard deviation (SD): 10.8 years), a median baseline EDSS of 4 (interquartile range (IQR): 2.5-5.5), and 2.4 years of disease duration (SD: 1.5 years) were included. LCMM detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild ( n = 143; 16.8%), moderate ( n = 378; 44.3%), or severe ( n = 332; 38.9%) disability trajectory. The probability of reaching EDSS 6 at 10 years was 0%, 46.4%, and 81.9% respectively. CONCLUSION: Applying an LCMM modeling approach to long-term EDSS data, it is possible to identify groups of PPMS patients with different prognosis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess prognostic factors for a second clinical attack and a first disability-worsening event in pediatric clinically isolated syndrome (pCIS) suggestive of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. METHODS: A cohort of 770 pCIS patients was followed up for at least 10 years. Cox proportional hazard models and Recursive Partitioning and Amalgamation (RECPAM) tree-regression were used to analyze data. RESULTS: In pCIS, female sex and a multifocal onset were risk factors for a second clinical attack (hazard ratio [HR], 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.28, 1.06-1.55; 1.42, 1.10-1.84, respectively), whereas disease-modifying drug (DMD) exposure reduced this risk (HR, 95% CI = 0.75, 0.60-0.95). After pediatric onset MS (POMS) diagnosis, age at onset younger than 15 years and DMD exposure decreased the risk of a first Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS)-worsening event (HR, 95% CI = 0.59, 0.42-0.83; 0.75, 0.71-0.80, respectively), whereas the occurrence of relapse increased this risk (HR, 95% CI = 5.08, 3.46-7.46). An exploratory RECPAM analysis highlighted a significantly higher incidence of a first EDSS-worsening event in patients with multifocal or isolated spinal cord or optic neuritis involvement at onset in comparison to those with an isolated supratentorial or brainstem syndrome. A Cox regression model including RECPAM classes confirmed DMD exposure as the most protective factor against EDSS-worsening events and relapses as the most important risk factor for attaining EDSS worsening. INTERPRETATION: This work represents a step forward in identifying predictors of unfavorable course in pCIS and POMS and supports a protective effect of early DMD treatment in preventing MS development and disability accumulation in this population. Ann Neurol 2017;81:729-739.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to analyse the effect of the introduction of fingolimod, the first oral disease-modifying therapy, on treatment utilisation and persistence in an international cohort of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: MSBASIS, a prospective, observational sub-study of the MSBase registry, collects demographic, clinical and paraclinical data on patients followed from MS onset (n=4718). We conducted a multivariable conditional risk set survival analysis to identify predictors of treatment discontinuation, and to assess if the introduction of fingolimod has altered treatment persistence. RESULTS: A total of 2640 patients commenced immunomodulatory therapy. Following the introduction of fingolimod, patients were more likely to discontinue all other treatments (hazard ratio 1.64, p<0.001) while more patients switched to fingolimod than any other therapy (42.3% of switches). Patients switched to fingolimod due to convenience. Patients treated with fingolimod were less likely to discontinue treatment compared with other therapies (p<0.001). Female sex, country of residence, younger age, a high Expanded Disability Status Scale score and relapse activity were all independently associated with higher rates of treatment discontinuation. CONCLUSION: Following the availability of fingolimod, patients were more likely to discontinue injectable treatments. Those who switched to fingolimod were more likely to do so for convenience. Persistence was improved on fingolimod compared to other medications.

Limited data suggest that multiple sclerosis (MS) in Latin America (LA) could be less severe than in the rest of the world. The objective was to compare the course of MS between LA and other regions. Methods Centers from 18 countries with >20 cases enrolled in the MSBase Registry participated. Patients with MS with a disease duration of >1 year and <30 years at time of EDSS measurement were evaluated. The MS Severity Score (MSSS) was used as a measure of disease progression. Comparisons among regions (North America, Europe, Australia and LA), hemispheres and countries were performed. Results A total of 9610 patients were included. Patients were from: Europe, 6290 (65.6%); North America, 1609 (16.7%); Australia, 1119 (11.6%); and LA, 592 (6.1%). The mean MSSS in patients from LA was 4.47 ± 2.8, 4.53 ± 2.8 in North America, 4.51 ± 2.8 in Europe and 4.49 ± 2.7 in Australia. Mean MSSS in the northern hemisphere was 4.51 ± 1.6 compared to 4.48 ± 1.9 in the southern hemisphere. No differences were found for MSSS among hemispheres ( p = 0.68), regions ( p = 0.96) or countries ( p = 0.50). Conclusions Our analyses did not discover any difference in mean MSSS among patients from different regions, hemispheres or countries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess demographic, clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment exposure predictors of time to 3 or 12-month confirmed disability worsening in clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and early multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We utilized the MSBase Incident Study (MSBasis), a prospective cohort study of outcome after CIS. Predictors of time to first 3 and 12-month confirmed expanded disability status scale worsening were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: About 1989 patients were analyzed, the largest seen-from-onset cohort reported to-date. A total of 391 patients had a first 3-month confirmed disability worsening event, of which 307 were sustained for 12 months. Older age at CIS onset (adjusted hazard ratio: aHR 1.17, 95% 1.06, 1.30), pyramidal (aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.13, 1.89) and ambulation (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.09, 2.34) system dysfunction, annualized relapse rate (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.18, 1.22), and lower proportion of observation time on treatment were associated with 3-month confirmed worsening. Predictors of time to 12-month sustained worsening included pyramidal system dysfunction (Hazard ratio: aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.05, 1.83), and older age at CIS onset (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04, 1.31). Greater proportion of follow-up time exposed to treatment was associated with greater reductions in the rate of worsening. INTERPRETATION: This study provides class IV evidence for a strong protective effect of disease-modifying treatment to reduce disability worsening events in patients with CIS and early MS, and confirms age and pyramidal dysfunction at onset as risk factors.

Prevention of irreversible disability is currently the most important goal of disease modifying therapy for multiple sclerosis. The disability outcomes used in most clinical trials rely on progression of Expanded Disability Status Scale score confirmed over 3 or 6 months. However, sensitivity and stability of this metric has not been extensively evaluated. Using the global MSBase cohort study, we evaluated 48 criteria of disability progression, testing three definitions of baseline disability, two definitions of progression magnitude, two definitions of long-term irreversibility and four definitions of event confirmation period. The study outcomes comprised the rates of detected progression events per 10 years and the proportions of the recorded events persistent at later time points. To evaluate the ratio of progression frequency and stability for each criterion, we calculated the proportion of events persistent over the five subsequent years once progression was achieved. Finally, we evaluated the clinical and demographic determinants characterising progression events and, for those that regressed back to baseline, determinants of their subsequent regression. The study population consisted of 16 636 patients with the minimum of three recorded disability scores, totalling 112 584 patient-years. The progression rates varied between 0.41 and 1.14 events per 10 years, with the length of required confirmation interval as the most important determinant of the observed variance. The concordance among all tested progression criteria was only 17.3%. Regression of disability occurred in 11-34% of the progression events over the five subsequent years. The most important determinant of progression stability was the length of the confirmation period. For the most accurate set of the progression criteria, the proportions of 3-, 6-, 12- or 24-month confirmed events persistent over 5 years reached 70%, 74%, 80% and 89%, respectively. Regression post progression was more common in

BACKGROUND: Multiple Sclerosis is more common in women than men and females have more relapses than men. In a large international cohort we have evaluated the effect of gender on disability accumulation and disease progression to determine if male MS patients have a worse clinical outcome than females. METHODS: Using the MSBase Registry, data from 15,826 MS patients from 25 countries was analysed. Changes in the severity of MS (EDSS) were compared between sexes using a repeated measures analysis in generalised linear mixed models. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to test for sex difference in the time to reach EDSS milestones 3 and 6 and the secondary progressive MS. RESULTS: In relapse onset MS patients (n = 14,453), males progressed significantly faster in their EDSS than females (0.133 vs 0.112 per year, P<0.001,). Females had a reduced risk of secondary progressive MS (HR (95% CI) = 0.77 (0.67 to 0.90) P = 0.001). In primary progressive MS (n = 1,373), there was a significant increase in EDSS over time in males and females (P<0.001) but there was no significant sex effect on the annualized rate of EDSS change. CONCLUSION: Among registrants of MSBase, male relapse-onset patients accumulate disability faster than female patients. In contrast, the rate of disability accumulation between male and female patients with primary progressive MS is similar.

IMPORTANCE: After multiple sclerosis (MS) relapse while a patient is receiving an injectable disease-modifying drug, many physicians advocate therapy switch, but the relative effectiveness of different switch decisions is often uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of the oral immunomodulator fingolimod with that of all injectable immunomodulators (interferons or glatiramer acetate) on relapse rate, disability, and treatment persistence in patients with active MS. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Matched retrospective analysis of data collected prospectively from MSBase, an international, observational cohort study. The MSBase cohort represents a population of patients with MS monitored at large MS centers. The analyzed data were collected between July 1996 and April 2014. Participants included patients with relapsing-remitting MS who were switching therapy to fingolimod or injectable immunomodulators up to 12 months after on-treatment clinical disease activity (relapse or progression of disability), matched on demographic and clinical variables. Median follow-up duration was 13.1 months (range, 3-80). Indication and attrition bias were controlled with propensity score matching and pairwise censoring, respectively. Head-to-head analyses of relapse and disability outcomes used paired, weighted, negative binomial models or frailty proportional hazards models adjusted for magnetic resonance imaging variables. Sensitivity analyses were conducted. EXPOSURES: Patients had received fingolimod, interferon beta, or glatiramer acetate for a minimum of 3 months following a switch of immunomodulatory therapy. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Annualized relapse rate and proportion of relapse-free patients, as well as the proportion of patients without sustained disability progression. RESULTS: Overall, 379 patients in the injectable group were matched to 148 patients in the fingolimod group. The fingolimod group had a lower mean annualized relapse rate (0.31 vs 0.42; 95% CI

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to analyse risk of relapse phenotype recurrence in multiple sclerosis and to characterise the effect of demographic and clinical features on this phenotype. METHODS: Information about relapses was collected using MSBase, an international observational registry. Associations between relapse phenotypes and history of similar relapses or patient characteristics were tested with multivariable logistic regression models. Tendency of relapse phenotypes to recur sequentially was assessed with principal component analysis. RESULTS: Among 14,969 eligible patients (89,949 patient-years), 49,279 phenotypically characterised relapses were recorded. Visual and brainstem relapses occurred more frequently in early disease and in younger patients. Sensory relapses were more frequent in early or non-progressive disease. Pyramidal, sphincter and cerebellar relapses were more common in older patients and in progressive disease. Women presented more often with sensory or visual symptoms. Men were more prone to pyramidal, brainstem and cerebellar relapses. Importantly, relapse phenotype was predicted by the phenotypes of previous relapses. (OR = 1.8-5, p = 10(-14)). Sensory, visual and brainstem relapses showed better recovery than other relapse phenotypes. Relapse severity increased and the ability to recover decreased with age or more advanced disease. CONCLUSION: Relapse phenotype was associated with demographic and clinical characteristics, with phenotypic recurrence significantly more common than expected by chance.

OBJECTIVES: To compare treatment persistence between two dosages of interferon β-1a in a large observational multiple sclerosis registry and assess disease outcomes of first line MS treatment at these dosages using propensity scoring to adjust for baseline imbalance in disease characteristics. METHODS: Treatment discontinuations were evaluated in all patients within the MSBase registry who commenced interferon β-1a SC thrice weekly (n = 4678). Furthermore, we assessed 2-year clinical outcomes in 1220 patients treated with interferon β-1a in either dosage (22 µg or 44 µg) as their first disease modifying agent, matched on propensity score calculated from pre-treatment demographic and clinical variables. A subgroup analysis was performed on 456 matched patients who also had baseline MRI variables recorded. RESULTS: Overall, 4054 treatment discontinuations were recorded in 3059 patients. The patients receiving the lower interferon dosage were more likely to discontinue treatment than those with the higher dosage (25% vs. 20% annual probability of discontinuation, respectively). This was seen in discontinuations with reasons recorded as "lack of efficacy" (3.3% vs. 1.7%), "scheduled stop" (2.2% vs. 1.3%) or without the reason recorded (16.7% vs. 13.3% annual discontinuation rate, 22 µg vs. 44 µg dosage, respectively). Propensity score was determined by treating centre and disability (score without MRI parameters) or centre, sex and number of contrast-enhancing lesions (score including MRI parameters). No differences in clinical outcomes at two years (relapse rate, time relapse-free and disability) were observed between the matched patients treated with either of the interferon dosages. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment discontinuations were more common in interferon β-1a 22 µg SC thrice weekly. However, 2-year clinical outcomes did not differ between patients receiving the different dosages, thus replicating in a registry dataset derived from "real-world" database the results of t

The aim of this work was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of multiple sclerosis relapses; assess the relationship between sex and primary progressive disease course; and compare effects of age and disease duration on relapse incidence. Annualized relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or <1 year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of multiple sclerosis or 70 years of age were compared between females and males with Andersen-Gill and Tweedie models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and primary progressive multiple sclerosis. The study cohort consisted of 11 570 eligible patients with relapse-onset and 881 patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Among the relapse-onset patients (82 552 patient-years), 48,362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared with males. Within the initial 5 years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 versus ≥4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer disease duration and older age (P < 10(-12)). However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Patient age was a more important determinant of decline in relapse incidence than disease duration (P < 10(-12)). Females are predisposed to higher relapse activity than males. However, this difference does not explain the markedly lower female-to-male sex ratio in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Decline in relapse activity over time is more closely related to patient age than disease duration.

Introduction: Only one large retrospective cohort study and several smaller analyses examined predictors of relapse incidence in MS. Sex, age and MS duration were suggested as determinants of relapse activity. While in relapsing-remitting MS women are overrepresented in the ratio of 3:1 to men, in primary progressive disease both sexes are represented equally. A lower probability of relapse in men could be the reason for this change, with primary progressive (PP) MS representing the “extreme” of low relapse activity. Aims: To evaluate effect of sex on the incidence of MS relapses. To assess the hypothesis that the female-to-male ratio increases gradually with relapse activity and that PPMS represents a non-relapsing extreme along this continuum. To directly compare effects of age and MS duration on relapse incidence. Methods: Annualised relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or less than one year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with PPMS were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of MS duration or up to 70 years of age were compared between females and males using Andersen-Gill and Poisson models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and PPMS. All models were adjusted for therapy and pregnancy. Results: Among 11,570 eligible patients with relapse-onset MS (82,552 patient-years), 48,362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared to males. Within the initial five years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 to >=4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer MS duration and older age. However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset MS and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with PPMS. Patient age was a more important

Introduction: Our knowledge of incidence and outcomes of MS relapses with specific symptomatology is limited. For example, optic neuritis is more common in early MS and the ability to recover deteriorates with longer disease duration. However, a comprehensive evaluation of multiple sclerosis relapse phenotypes, comprising clinical presentations, severity, impact and recovery, and capturing full spectrum of MS courses, duration and patient demography, has not yet been done. Aim: To identify patterns of clinical MS relapses, their impact on specific neuroanatomical locations and their associations with demographic and clinical parameters. Methods: Information about relapse symptomatology was collected prospectively in 17,555 eligible patients and 104,333 patient-years recorded in MSBase, an international observational MS registry. In a proportion of the relapses, information about relapse severity, impact on activities of daily living and recovery was available. Associations between relapse phenotype and patient characteristics were tested with a series of multivariable logistic regression models. Principal component analysis was conducted to assess the tendency of the specific relapse locations to be involved sequentially in individual patients. Results: Of 63,343 relapses, the majority affected pyramidal and sensory functions. Visual and brainstem relapses occurred more frequently in early disease and in younger patients. Sensory relapses were recorded mostly in earlier disease and less commonly in relapsing-progressive disease. Pyramidal, sphincter and cerebellar relapses were more common in older patients and in progressive disease. Women more commonly presented with sensory or visual symptoms, while men were more prone to pyramidal, brainstem and cerebellar relapses. Relapses were likely to recur within the previously affected locations (odd ratios 1.8 – 5, p = 10^-13), with pyramidal, sphincter and sensory relapses often converging within the same individuals (e

The aim of this work was to evaluate sex differences in the incidence of multiple sclerosis relapses; assess the relationship between sex and primary progressive disease course; and compare effects of age and disease duration on relapse incidence. Annualized relapse rates were calculated using the MSBase registry. Patients with incomplete data or <1 year of follow-up were excluded. Patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis were only included in the sex ratio analysis. Relapse incidences over 40 years of multiple sclerosis or 70 years of age were compared between females and males with Andersen-Gill and Tweedie models. Female-to-male ratios stratified by annual relapse count were evaluated across disease duration and patient age and compared between relapse-onset and primary progressive multiple sclerosis. The study cohort consisted of 11 570 eligible patients with relapse-onset and 881 patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Among the relapse-onset patients (82 552 patient-years), 48,362 relapses were recorded. Relapse frequency was 17.7% higher in females compared with males. Within the initial 5 years, the female-to-male ratio increased from 2.3:1 to 3.3:1 in patients with 0 versus ≥4 relapses per year, respectively. The magnitude of this sex effect increased at longer disease duration and older age (P < 10(-12)). However, the female-to-male ratio in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and zero relapses in any given year was double that of the patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Patient age was a more important determinant of decline in relapse incidence than disease duration (P < 10(-12)). Females are predisposed to higher relapse activity than males. However, this difference does not explain the markedly lower female-to-male sex ratio in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Decline in relapse activity over time is more closely related to patient age than disease duration.