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Gravitational-wave (GW) observations of neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers are sensitive to the nuclear equation of state (EOS). We present a new methodology for EOS inference with non-parametric Gaussian process (GP) priors, enabling direct constraints on the pressure at specific densities and the length-scale of correlations on the EOS. Using realistic simulations of NSBH mergers, incorporating both GW and electromagnetic (EM) selection to ensure sample purity, we find that a GW detector network operating at O5-sensitivities will constrain the radius of a $\unit[1.4]{M_{\odot}}$ NS and the maximum NS mass with $1.6\%$ and $13\%$ precision, respectively. With the same sample, the projected constraint on the length-scale of correlations in the EOS is $\geq~\unit[3.2]{MeV~fm^{-3}}$. These results demonstrate strong potential for insights into the nuclear EOS from NSBH systems, provided they are robustly identified., Comment: 10 pages, 4 Figures. Accepted in PRD

The standard approach to inference from cosmic large-scale structure data employs summary statistics that are compared to analytic models in a Gaussian likelihood with pre-computed covariance. To overcome the idealising assumptions about the form of the likelihood and the complexity of the data inherent to the standard approach, we investigate simulation-based inference (SBI), which learns the likelihood as a probability density parameterised by a neural network. We construct suites of simulated, exactly Gaussian-distributed data vectors for the most recent Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) weak gravitational lensing analysis and demonstrate that SBI recovers the full 12-dimensional KiDS posterior distribution with just under $10^4$ simulations. We optimise the simulation strategy by initially covering the parameter space by a hypercube, followed by batches of actively learnt additional points. The data compression in our SBI implementation is robust to suboptimal choices of fiducial parameter values and of data covariance. Together with a fast simulator, SBI is therefore a competitive and more versatile alternative to standard inference., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures; updated to match version accepted by MNRAS

Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers offer a promising path towards resolution of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) tension, provided their constraints are shown to be free from systematics such as the Malmquist bias. In the traditional Bayesian framework, accounting for selection effects in the likelihood requires calculation of the expected number (or fraction) of detections as a function of the parameters describing the population and cosmology; a potentially costly and/or inaccurate process. This calculation can, however, be bypassed completely by performing the inference in a framework in which the likelihood is never explicitly calculated, but instead fit using forward simulations of the data, which naturally include the selection. This is Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI). Here, we use density-estimation LFI, coupled to neural-network-based data compression, to infer $H_0$ from mock catalogues of binary neutron star mergers, given noisy redshift, distance and peculiar velocity estimates for each object. We demonstrate that LFI yields statistically unbiased estimates of $H_0$ in the presence of selection effects, with precision matching that of sampling the full Bayesian hierarchical model. Marginalizing over the bias increases the $H_0$ uncertainty by only $6\%$ for training sets consisting of $O(10^4)$ populations. The resulting LFI framework is applicable to population-level inference problems with selection effects across astrophysics., Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, comments welcome

Gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) observations of neutron-star-black-hole (NSBH) mergers can provide precise local measurements of the Hubble constant ($H_0$), ideal for resolving the current $H_0$ tension. We perform end-to-end analyses of realistic populations of simulated NSBHs, incorporating both GW and EM selection for the first time. We show that NSBHs could achieve unbiased 1.5-2.4% precision $H_0$ estimates by 2030. The achievable precision is strongly affected by the details of spin precession and tidal disruption, highlighting the need for improved modeling of NSBH mergers., Comment: Version published in Physical Review Letters. 10 pages, 3 figures. Code available at https://github.com/sfeeney/nsbh

In the study of grain-surface chemistry in the interstellar medium, there exists much uncertainty regarding the reaction mechanisms with few constraints on the abundances of grain-surface molecules. Bayesian inference can be performed to determine the likely reaction rates. In this work, we consider methods for reducing the computational expense of performing Bayesian inference on a reaction network by looking at the geometry of the network. Two methods of exploiting the topology of the reaction network are presented. One involves reducing a reaction network to just the reaction chains with constraints on them. After this, new constraints are added to the reaction network and it is shown that one can separate this new reaction network into sub-networks. The fact that networks can be separated into sub-networks is particularly important for the reaction networks of interstellar complex organic molecules, whose surface reaction networks may have hundreds of reactions. Both methods allow the maximum-posterior reaction rate to be recovered with minimal bias.

Upcoming million-star spectroscopic surveys have the potential to revolutionize our view of the formation and chemical evolution of the Milky Way. Realizing this potential requires automated approaches to optimize estimates of stellar properties, such as chemical element abundances, from the spectra. The volume and quality of the observations strongly motivate that these approaches should be data-driven. With this in mind, we introduce SSSpaNG: a data-driven non-Gaussian Process model of stellar spectra. We demonstrate the capabilities of SSSpaNG using a sample of APOGEE red clump stars, whose model parameters we infer via Gibbs sampling. Pooling information between stars to infer their covariance, we permit clear identification of the correlations between spectral pixels. Harnessing these correlations, we infer the true spectrum of each star, inpainting missing regions and denoising by a factor of at least 2 for stars with signal-to-noise of ~20. As we marginalize over the covariance matrix of the spectra, the effective prior on these true spectra is non-Gaussian and sparsifying, favouring typically small but occasionally large excursions from the mean. The high-fidelity inferred spectra produced will enable improved elemental abundance measurements for individual stars. Our model also allows us to quantify the information gained by observing portions of a star's spectrum, and thereby define the most mutually informative spectral regions. Using 25 windows centred on elemental absorption lines, we demonstrate that the iron-peak and alpha-process elements are particularly mutually informative for these spectra, and that the majority of information about a target window is contained in the 10-or-so most informative windows. Such mutual-information estimates have the potential to inform models of nucleosynthetic yields and the design of future observations., Comment: Version published in MNRAS. 15 pages, 9 figures, code available from https://github.com/sfeeney/ddspectra

The Simons Observatory (SO) is a ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment sited on Cerro Toco in the Atacama Desert in Chile that promises to provide breakthrough discoveries in fundamental physics, cosmology, and astrophysics. Supported by the Simons Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, and with contributions from collaborating institutions, SO will see first light in 2021 and start a five year survey in 2022. SO has 287 collaborators from 12 countries and 53 institutions, including 85 students and 90 postdocs. The SO experiment in its currently funded form ('SO-Nominal') consists of three 0.4 m Small Aperture Telescopes (SATs) and one 6 m Large Aperture Telescope (LAT). Optimized for minimizing systematic errors in polarization measurements at large angular scales, the SATs will perform a deep, degree-scale survey of 10% of the sky to search for the signature of primordial gravitational waves. The LAT will survey 40% of the sky with arc-minute resolution. These observations will measure (or limit) the sum of neutrino masses, search for light relics, measure the early behavior of Dark Energy, and refine our understanding of the intergalactic medium, clusters and the role of feedback in galaxy formation. With up to ten times the sensitivity and five times the angular resolution of the Planck satellite, and roughly an order of magnitude increase in mapping speed over currently operating ("Stage 3") experiments, SO will measure the CMB temperature and polarization fluctuations to exquisite precision in six frequency bands from 27 to 280 GHz. SO will rapidly advance CMB science while informing the design of future observatories such as CMB-S4., Comment: Astro2020 Decadal Project Whitepaper. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1808.07445

Density-estimation likelihood-free inference (DELFI) has recently been proposed as an efficient method for simulation-based cosmological parameter inference. Compared to the standard likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, DELFI has several advantages: it is highly parallelizable, there is no need to assume a possibly incorrect functional form for the likelihood and complicated effects (e.g the mask and detector systematics) are easier to handle with forward models. In light of this, we present two DELFI pipelines to perform weak lensing parameter inference with lognormal realizations of the tomographic shear field -- using the C_l summary statistic. The first pipeline accounts for the non-Gaussianities of the shear field, intrinsic alignments and photometric-redshift error. We validate that it is accurate enough for Stage III experiments and estimate that O(1000) simulations are needed to perform inference on Stage IV data. By comparing the second DELFI pipeline, which makes no assumption about the functional form of the likelihood, with the standard MCMC approach, which assumes a Gaussian likelihood, we test the impact of the Gaussian likelihood approximation in the MCMC analysis. We find it has a negligible impact on Stage IV parameter constraints. Our pipeline is a step towards seamlessly propagating all data-processing, instrumental, theoretical and astrophysical systematics through to the final parameter constraints., Comment: Physical Review D. accepted

Likelihood-free inference provides a framework for performing rigorous Bayesian inference using only forward simulations, properly accounting for all physical and observational effects that can be successfully included in the simulations. The key challenge for likelihood-free applications in cosmology, where simulation is typically expensive, is developing methods that can achieve high-fidelity posterior inference with as few simulations as possible. Density-estimation likelihood-free inference (DELFI) methods turn inference into a density estimation task on a set of simulated data-parameter pairs, and give orders of magnitude improvements over traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation approaches to likelihood-free inference. In this paper we use neural density estimators (NDEs) to learn the likelihood function from a set of simulated datasets, with active learning to adaptively acquire simulations in the most relevant regions of parameter space on-the-fly. We demonstrate the approach on a number of cosmological case studies, showing that for typical problems high-fidelity posterior inference can be achieved with just $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ simulations or fewer. In addition to enabling efficient simulation-based inference, for simple problems where the form of the likelihood is known, DELFI offers a fast alternative to MCMC sampling, giving orders of magnitude speed-up in some cases. Finally, we introduce \textsc{pydelfi} -- a flexible public implementation of DELFI with NDEs and active learning -- available at \url{https://github.com/justinalsing/pydelfi}., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS Feb 2019

The Probe of Inflation and Cosmic Origins (PICO) is an imaging polarimeter that will scan the sky for 5 years in 21 frequency bands spread between 21 and 799 GHz. It will produce full-sky surveys of intensity and polarization with a final combined-map noise level of 0.87 $\mu$K arcmin for the required specifications, equivalent to 3300 Planck missions, and with our current best-estimate would have a noise level of 0.61 $\mu$K arcmin (6400 Planck missions). PICO will either determine the energy scale of inflation by detecting the tensor to scalar ratio at a level $r=5\times 10^{-4}~(5\sigma)$, or will rule out with more than $5\sigma$ all inflation models for which the characteristic scale in the potential is the Planck scale. With LSST's data it could rule out all models of slow-roll inflation. PICO will detect the sum of neutrino masses at $>4\sigma$, constrain the effective number of light particle species with $\Delta N_{\rm eff}<0.06~(2\sigma)$, and elucidate processes affecting the evolution of cosmic structures by measuring the optical depth to reionization with errors limited by cosmic variance and by constraining the evolution of the amplitude of linear fluctuations $\sigma_{8}(z)$ with sub-percent accuracy. Cross-correlating PICO's map of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect with LSST's gold sample of galaxies will precisely trace the evolution of thermal pressure with $z$. PICO's maps of the Milky Way will be used to determine the make up of galactic dust and the role of magnetic fields in star formation efficiency. With 21 full sky legacy maps in intensity and polarization, which cannot be obtained in any other way, the mission will enrich many areas of astrophysics. PICO is the only single-platform instrument with the combination of sensitivity, angular resolution, frequency bands, and control of systematic effects that can deliver this compelling, timely, and broad science., Comment: Probe class mission study submitted to NASA and 2020 Decadal Panel. Executive summary: 2.5 pages; Science: 28 pages; Total: 50 pages, 36 figures

Gravitational wave (GW) observations of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers can be used to measure luminosity distances and hence, when coupled with estimates for the mergers' host redshifts, infer the Hubble constant, $H_0$. These observations are, however, affected by GW measurement noise, uncertainties in host redshifts and peculiar velocities, and are potentially biased by selection effects and the mis-specification of the cosmological model or the BNS population. The estimation of $H_0$ from samples of BNS mergers with optical counterparts is tested here by using a phenomenological model for the GW strains that captures both the data-driven event selection and the distance-inclination degeneracy, while being simple enough to facilitate large numbers of simulations. A rigorous Bayesian approach to analyzing the data from such simulated BNS merger samples is shown to yield results that are unbiased, have the appropriate uncertainties, and are robust to model mis-specification. Applying such methods to a sample of $N \simeq 50$ BNS merger events, as LIGO+Virgo could produce in the next $\sim 5$ years, should yield robust and accurate Hubble constant estimates that are precise to a level of $\sim 2$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$, sufficient to reliably resolve the current tension between local and cosmological measurements of $H_0$., Comment: 21 pages (including eight-page appendices); 9 figures. Matches version accepted by PRD

The Simons Observatory (SO) is a new cosmic microwave background experiment being built on Cerro Toco in Chile, due to begin observations in the early 2020s. We describe the scientific goals of the experiment, motivate the design, and forecast its performance. SO will measure the temperature and polarization anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background in six frequency bands: 27, 39, 93, 145, 225 and 280 GHz. The initial configuration of SO will have three small-aperture 0.5-m telescopes (SATs) and one large-aperture 6-m telescope (LAT), with a total of 60,000 cryogenic bolometers. Our key science goals are to characterize the primordial perturbations, measure the number of relativistic species and the mass of neutrinos, test for deviations from a cosmological constant, improve our understanding of galaxy evolution, and constrain the duration of reionization. The SATs will target the largest angular scales observable from Chile, mapping ~10% of the sky to a white noise level of 2 $\mu$K-arcmin in combined 93 and 145 GHz bands, to measure the primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio, $r$, at a target level of $\sigma(r)=0.003$. The LAT will map ~40% of the sky at arcminute angular resolution to an expected white noise level of 6 $\mu$K-arcmin in combined 93 and 145 GHz bands, overlapping with the majority of the LSST sky region and partially with DESI. With up to an order of magnitude lower polarization noise than maps from the Planck satellite, the high-resolution sky maps will constrain cosmological parameters derived from the damping tail, gravitational lensing of the microwave background, the primordial bispectrum, and the thermal and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effects, and will aid in delensing the large-angle polarization signal to measure the tensor-to-scalar ratio. The survey will also provide a legacy catalog of 16,000 galaxy clusters and more than 20,000 extragalactic sources., Comment: This paper presents an overview of the Simons Observatory science goals, details about the instrument will be presented in a companion paper. The author contribution to this paper is available at https://simonsobservatory.org/publications.php (Abstract abridged) -- matching version published in JCAP

We derive the optimal proposal density for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) (or Population Monte Carlo, PMC). The criterion for optimality is that the SMC/PMC-ABC sampler maximise the effective number of samples per parameter proposal. The optimal proposal density represents the optimal trade-off between favoring high acceptance rate and reducing the variance of the importance weights of accepted samples. We discuss two convenient approximations of this proposal and show that the optimal proposal density gives a significant boost in the expected sampling efficiency compared to standard kernels that are in common use in the ABC literature, especially as the number of parameters increases., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures

EBEX was a long-duration balloon-borne experiment to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background. The experiment had three frequency bands centered at 150, 250, and 410 GHz and was the first to use a kilo-pixel array of transition edge sensor (TES) bolometers aboard a balloon platform; shortly after reaching float we operated 504, 342, and 109 TESs at each of the bands, respectively. We describe the design and characterization of the array and the readout system. We give the distributions of measured thermal conductances, normal resistances, and transition temperatures. With the exception of the thermal conductance at 150 GHz. We measured median low-loop-gain time constants $\tau_{0}=$ 88, 46, and 57 ms and compare them to predictions. Two measurements of bolometer absorption efficiency show high ($\sim$0.9) efficiency at 150 GHz and medium ($\sim$0.35, and $\sim$0.25) at the two higher bands, respectively. We measure a median total optical load of 3.6, 5.3 and 5.0 pW absorbed at the three bands, respectively. EBEX pioneered the use of the digital version of the frequency domain multiplexing (FDM) system which multiplexed the bias and readout of 16 bolometers onto two wires. We present accounting of the measured noise equivalent power. The median per-detector noise equivalent temperatures referred to a black body with a temperature of 2.725 K are 400, 920, and 14500 $\mu$K$\sqrt{s}$ for the three bands, respectively. We compare these values to our pre-flight predictions and to a previous balloon payload, discuss the sources of excess noise, and the path for a future payload to make full use of the balloon environment., Comment: Accepted by The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series (APJS). 49 pages, 28 figures, 11 tables

The Hubble constant ($H_0$) estimated from the local Cepheid-supernova (SN) distance ladder is in 3-$\sigma$ tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents new physics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent $H_0$ estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse distance ladder formed from BOSS baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and the Pantheon SN sample yields an $H_0$ posterior near-identical to the Planck CMB measurement. The observed local distance ladder value is a very unlikely draw from the resulting PPD. Turning to the future, we find that a sample of $\sim50$ binary neutron star "standard sirens" (detectable within the next decade) will be able to adjudicate between the local and CMB estimates., Comment: Eight pages, four figures. v3: matches version accepted by Physical Review Letters. Code available at https://github.com/sfeeney/hh0

Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from any likelihood assumptions or approximations. Likelihood-free inference generically involves simulating mock data and comparing to the observed data; this comparison in data-space suffers from the curse of dimensionality and requires compression of the data to a small number of summary statistics to be tractable. In this paper we use massive asymptotically-optimal data compression to reduce the dimensionality of the data-space to just one number per parameter, providing a natural and optimal framework for summary statistic choice for likelihood-free inference. Secondly, we present the first cosmological application of Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference (\textsc{delfi}), which learns a parameterized model for joint distribution of data and parameters, yielding both the parameter posterior and the model evidence. This approach is conceptually simple, requires less tuning than traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation approaches to likelihood-free inference and can give high-fidelity posteriors from orders of magnitude fewer forward simulations. As an additional bonus, it enables parameter inference and Bayesian model comparison simultaneously. We demonstrate Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference with massive data compression on an analysis of the joint light-curve analysis supernova data, as a simple validation case study. We show that high-fidelity posterior inference is possible for full-scale cosmological data analyses with as few as $\sim 10^4$ simulations, with substantial scope for further improvement, demonstrating the scalability of likelihood-free inference to large and complex cosmological datasets., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, updated to MNRAS accepted version (26 Mar 2018)

Lensing of the CMB is now a well-developed probe of large-scale clustering over a broad range of redshifts. By exploiting the non-Gaussian imprints of lensing in the polarization of the CMB, the CORE mission can produce a clean map of the lensing deflections over nearly the full-sky. The number of high-S/N modes in this map will exceed current CMB lensing maps by a factor of 40, and the measurement will be sample-variance limited on all scales where linear theory is valid. Here, we summarise this mission product and discuss the science that it will enable. For example, the summed mass of neutrinos will be determined to an accuracy of 17 meV combining CORE lensing and CMB two-point information with contemporaneous BAO measurements, three times smaller than the minimum total mass allowed by neutrino oscillations. In the search for B-mode polarization from primordial gravitational waves with CORE, lens-induced B-modes will dominate over instrument noise, limiting constraints on the gravitational wave power spectrum amplitude. With lensing reconstructed by CORE, one can "delens" the observed polarization internally, reducing the lensing B-mode power by 60%. This improves to 70% by combining lensing and CIB measurements from CORE, reducing the error on the gravitational wave amplitude by 2.5 compared to no delensing (in the null hypothesis). Lensing measurements from CORE will allow calibration of the halo masses of the 40000 galaxy clusters that it will find, with constraints dominated by the clean polarization-based estimators. CORE can accurately remove Galactic emission from CMB maps with its 19 frequency channels. We present initial findings that show that residual Galactic foreground contamination will not be a significant source of bias for lensing power spectrum measurements with CORE. [abridged], Comment: 44 pages, 12 figures

Estimates of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, from the distance ladder and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) differ at the $\sim$3-$\sigma$ level, indicating a potential issue with the standard $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. Interpreting this tension correctly requires a model comparison calculation depending on not only the traditional `$n$-$\sigma$' mismatch but also the tails of the likelihoods. Determining the form of the tails of the local $H_0$ likelihood is impossible with the standard Gaussian least-squares approximation, as it requires using non-Gaussian distributions to faithfully represent anchor likelihoods and model outliers in the Cepheid and supernova (SN) populations, and simultaneous fitting of the full distance-ladder dataset to correctly propagate uncertainties. We have developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the full distance ladder, from nearby geometric anchors through Cepheids to Hubble-Flow SNe. This model does not rely on any distributions being Gaussian, allowing outliers to be modeled and obviating the need for arbitrary data cuts. Sampling from the $\sim$3000-parameter joint posterior using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we find $H_0$ = (72.72 $\pm$ 1.67) ${\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ when applied to the outlier-cleaned Riess et al. (2016) data, and ($73.15 \pm 1.78$) ${\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ with SN outliers reintroduced. Our high-fidelity sampling of the low-$H_0$ tail of the distance-ladder likelihood allows us to apply Bayesian model comparison to assess the evidence for deviation from $\Lambda$CDM. We set up this comparison to yield a lower limit on the odds of the underlying model being $\Lambda$CDM given the distance-ladder and Planck XIII (2016) CMB data. The odds against $\Lambda$CDM are at worst 10:1 or 7:1, depending on whether the SNe outliers are cut or modeled, or 60:1 if an approximation to the Planck Int. XLVI (2016) likelihood is used., Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures, matches version submitted to MNRAS. The model code used in this analysis is available for download at https://github.com/sfeeney/hh0

The CMB Stage 4 (CMB-S4) experiment is a next-generation, ground-based experiment that will measure the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization to unprecedented accuracy, probing the signature of inflation, the nature of cosmic neutrinos, relativistic thermal relics in the early universe, and the evolution of the universe. To advance the progress towards designing the instrument for CMB-S4, we have established a framework to optimize the instrumental configuration to maximize its scientific output. In this paper, we report our first results from this framework, using simplified instrumental and cost models. We have primarily studied two classes of instrumental configurations: arrays of large aperture telescopes with diameters ranging from 2-10 m, and hybrid arrays that combine small-aperture telescopes (0.5 m diameter) with large-aperture telescopes. We explore performance as a function of the telescope aperture size, the distribution of the detectors into different microwave frequencies, the survey strategy and survey area, the low-frequency noise performance, and the balance between small and large aperture telescopes for the hybrid configurations. We also examine the impact from the uncertainties of the instrumental model. There are several areas that deserve further improvement. In our forecasting framework, we adopt a simple two-component foregrounds model with spacially varying power-law spectral indices. We estimate delensing performance statistically and ignore possible non-idealities. Instrumental systematics, which is not accounted for in our study, may influence the design. Further study of the instrumental and cost models will be one of the main areas of study by the whole CMB-S4 community. We hope that our framework will be useful for estimating the influence of these improvement in future, and we will incorporate them in order to improve the optimization further., Comment: 42 pages, 23 figures; minor English/grammar corrections

We forecast the scientific capabilities to improve our understanding of cosmic inflation of CORE, a proposed CMB space satellite submitted in response to the ESA fifth call for a medium-size mission opportunity. The CORE satellite will map the CMB anisotropies in temperature and polarization in 19 frequency channels spanning the range 60-600 GHz. CORE will have an aggregate noise sensitivity of $1.7 \mu$K$\cdot \,$arcmin and an angular resolution of 5' at 200 GHz. We explore the impact of telescope size and noise sensitivity on the inflation science return by making forecasts for several instrumental configurations. This study assumes that the lower and higher frequency channels suffice to remove foreground contaminations and complements other related studies of component separation and systematic effects, which will be reported in other papers of the series "Exploring Cosmic Origins with CORE." We forecast the capability to determine key inflationary parameters, to lower the detection limit for the tensor-to-scalar ratio down to the $10^{-3}$ level, to chart the landscape of single field slow-roll inflationary models, to constrain the epoch of reheating, thus connecting inflation to the standard radiation-matter dominated Big Bang era, to reconstruct the primordial power spectrum, to constrain the contribution from isocurvature perturbations to the $10^{-3}$ level, to improve constraints on the cosmic string tension to a level below the presumptive GUT scale, and to improve the current measurements of primordial non-Gaussianities down to the $f_{NL}^{\rm local} < 1$ level. For all the models explored, CORE alone will improve significantly on the present constraints on the physics of inflation. Its capabilities will be further enhanced by combining with complementary future cosmological observations., Comment: Latex 107 pages, revised with updated author list and minor modifications

We forecast the main cosmological parameter constraints achievable with the CORE space mission which is dedicated to mapping the polarisation of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). CORE was recently submitted in response to ESA's fifth call for medium-sized mission proposals (M5). Here we report the results from our pre-submission study of the impact of various instrumental options, in particular the telescope size and sensitivity level, and review the great, transformative potential of the mission as proposed. Specifically, we assess the impact on a broad range of fundamental parameters of our Universe as a function of the expected CMB characteristics, with other papers in the series focusing on controlling astrophysical and instrumental residual systematics. In this paper, we assume that only a few central CORE frequency channels are usable for our purpose, all others being devoted to the cleaning of astrophysical contaminants. On the theoretical side, we assume LCDM as our general framework and quantify the improvement provided by CORE over the current constraints from the Planck 2015 release. We also study the joint sensitivity of CORE and of future Baryon Acoustic Oscillation and Large Scale Structure experiments like DESI and Euclid. Specific constraints on the physics of inflation are presented in another paper of the series. In addition to the six parameters of the base LCDM, which describe the matter content of a spatially flat universe with adiabatic and scalar primordial fluctuations from inflation, we derive the precision achievable on parameters like those describing curvature, neutrino physics, extra light relics, primordial helium abundance, dark matter annihilation, recombination physics, variation of fundamental constants, dark energy, modified gravity, reionization and cosmic birefringence. (ABRIDGED), Comment: 90 pages, 25 Figures. Revised version with new authors list and references

Obtaining high-sensitivity measurements of degree-scale cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization is the most direct path to detecting primordial gravitational waves. Robustly recovering any primordial signal from the dominant foreground emission will require high-fidelity observations at multiple frequencies, with excellent control of systematics. We explore the potential for a new platform for CMB observations, the Airlander 10 hybrid air vehicle, to perform this task. We show that the Airlander 10 platform, operating at commercial airline altitudes, is well-suited to mapping frequencies above 220 GHz, which are critical for cleaning CMB maps of dust emission. Optimizing the distribution of detectors across frequencies, we forecast the ability of Airlander 10 to clean foregrounds of varying complexity as a function of altitude, demonstrating its complementarity with both existing (Planck) and ongoing (C-BASS) foreground observations. This novel platform could play a key role in defining our ultimate view of the polarized microwave sky., Comment: Six pages, four figures. v2: matches version published in MNRAS Letters

This book lays out the scientific goals to be addressed by the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background experiment, CMB-S4, envisioned to consist of dedicated telescopes at the South Pole, the high Chilean Atacama plateau and possibly a northern hemisphere site, all equipped with new superconducting cameras. CMB-S4 will dramatically advance cosmological studies by crossing critical thresholds in the search for the B-mode polarization signature of primordial gravitational waves, in the determination of the number and masses of the neutrinos, in the search for evidence of new light relics, in constraining the nature of dark energy, and in testing general relativity on large scales.

Analysis of cosmic microwave background (CMB) datasets typically requires some filtering of the raw time-ordered data. Filtering is frequently used to minimize the impact of low frequency noise, atmospheric contributions and/or scan synchronous signals on the resulting maps. In this work we explicitly construct a general filtering operator, which can unambiguously remove any set of unwanted modes in the data, and then amend the map-making procedure in order to incorporate and correct for it. We show that such an approach is mathematically equivalent to the solution of a problem in which the sky signal and unwanted modes are estimated simultaneously and the latter are marginalized over. We investigate the conditions under which this amended map-making procedure can render an unbiased estimate of the sky signal in realistic circumstances. We then study the effects of time-domain filtering on the noise correlation structure in the map domain, as well as impact it may have on the performance of the popular pseudo-spectrum estimators. We conclude that although maps produced by the proposed estimators arguably provide the most faithful representation of the sky possible given the data, they may not straightforwardly lead to the best constraints on the power spectra of the underlying sky signal and special care may need to be taken to ensure this is the case. By contrast, simplified map-makers which do not explicitly correct for time-domain filtering, but leave it to subsequent steps in the data analysis, may perform equally well and be easier and faster to implement. We focus on polarization-sensitive measurements targeting the B-mode component of the CMB signal and apply the proposed methods to realistic simulations based on characteristics of an actual CMB polarization experiment, POLARBEAR., Comment: 26 pages

A fundamental assumption in the standard model of cosmology is that the Universe is isotropic on large scales. Breaking this assumption leads to a set of solutions to Einstein's field equations, known as Bianchi cosmologies, only a subset of which have ever been tested against data. For the first time, we consider all degrees of freedom in these solutions to conduct a general test of isotropy using cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization data from Planck. For the vector mode (associated with vorticity), we obtain a limit on the anisotropic expansion of $(\sigma_V/H)_0 < 4.7 \times 10^{-11}$ (95% CI), which is an order of magnitude tighter than previous Planck results that used CMB temperature only. We also place upper limits on other modes of anisotropic expansion, with the weakest limit arising from the regular tensor mode, $(\sigma_{T,\rm reg}/H)_0<1.0 \times 10^{-6}$ (95% CI). Including all degrees of freedom simultaneously for the first time, anisotropic expansion of the Universe is strongly disfavoured, with odds of 121,000:1 against., Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure, v2: replaced with version accepted by PRL

We present a new framework for testing the isotropy of the Universe using cosmic microwave background data, building on the nested-sampling ANICOSMO code. Uniquely, we are able to constrain the scalar, vector and tensor degrees of freedom alike; previous studies only considered the vector mode (linked to vorticity). We employ Bianchi type VII$_h$ cosmologies to model the anisotropic Universe, from which other types may be obtained by taking suitable limits. In a separate development, we improve the statistical analysis by including the effect of Bianchi power in the high-$\ell$, as well as the low-$\ell$, likelihood. To understand the effect of all these changes, we apply our new techniques to WMAP data. We find no evidence for anisotropy, constraining shear in the vector mode to $(\sigma_V/H)_0 < 1.7 \times 10^{-10}$ (95% CL). For the first time, we place limits on the tensor mode; unlike other modes, the tensor shear can grow from a near-isotropic early Universe. The limit on this type of shear is $(\sigma_{T,\rm reg}/H)_0 < 2.4 \times 10^{-7}$ (95% CL)., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, v3: minor modifications to match version accepted by MNRAS

The E and B Experiment (EBEX) is a balloon-borne polarimeter designed to measure the polarization of the cosmic microwave background radiation and to characterize the polarization of galactic dust. EBEX was launched December 29, 2012 and circumnavigated Antarctica observing $\sim$6,000 square degrees of sky during 11 days at three frequency bands centered around 150, 250 and 410 GHz. EBEX was the first experiment to operate a kilo-pixel array of transition-edge sensor bolometers and a continuously rotating achromatic half-wave plate aboard a balloon platform. It also pioneered the use of detector readout based on digital frequency domain multiplexing. We describe the temperature calibration of the experiment. The gain response of the experiment is calibrated using a two-step iterative process. We use signals measured on passes across the Galactic plane to convert from readout-system counts to power. The effective smoothing scale of the EBEX optics and the star camera-to-detector offset angles are determined through \c{hi}2 minimization using the compact HII region RCW 38. This two-step process is initially performed with parameters measured before the EBEX 2013 flight and then repeated until the calibration factor and parameters converge., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, Proceedings of the 14th Marcel Grossman Conference

[Abridged] Recent results from the BICEP, Keck Array and Planck Collaborations demonstrate that Galactic foregrounds are an unavoidable obstacle in the search for evidence of inflationary gravitational waves in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization. Beyond the foregrounds, the effect of lensing by intervening large-scale structure further obscures all but the strongest inflationary signals permitted by current data. With a plethora of ongoing and upcoming experiments aiming to measure these signatures, careful and self-consistent consideration of experiments' foreground- and lensing-removal capabilities is critical in obtaining credible forecasts of their performance. We investigate the capabilities of instruments such as Advanced ACTPol, BICEP3 and Keck Array, CLASS, EBEX10K, PIPER, Simons Array, SPT-3G and SPIDER, and projects as COrE+, LiteBIRD-ext, PIXIE and Stage IV, to clean contamination due to polarized synchrotron and dust from raw multi-frequency data, and remove lensing from the resulting co-added CMB maps (either using iterative CMB-only techniques or through cross-correlation with external data). Incorporating these effects, we present forecasts for the constraining power of these experiments in terms of inflationary physics, the neutrino sector, and dark energy parameters. Made publicly available through an online interface, this tool enables the next generation of CMB experiments to foreground-proof their designs, optimize their frequency coverage to maximize scientific output, and determine where cross-experimental collaboration would be most beneficial. We find that analyzing data from ground, balloon and space instruments in complementary combinations can significantly improve component separation performance, delensing, and cosmological constraints over individual datasets., Comment: 37 pages plus appendices, 15 figures; first two authors contributed equally to this work; forecasting tool available at http://turkey.lbl.gov. v4: matches version published in JCAP (with extended dark energy constraints)

We constrain anisotropic cosmic birefringence using four-point correlations of even-parity $E$-mode and odd-parity $B$-mode polarization in the cosmic microwave background measurements made by the POLARization of the Background Radiation (POLARBEAR) experiment in its first season of observations. We find that the anisotropic cosmic birefringence signal from any parity-violating processes is consistent with zero. The Faraday rotation from anisotropic cosmic birefringence can be compared with the equivalent quantity generated by primordial magnetic fields if they existed. The POLARBEAR nondetection translates into a 95% confidence level (C.L.) upper limit of 93 nanogauss (nG) on the amplitude of an equivalent primordial magnetic field inclusive of systematic uncertainties. This four-point correlation constraint on Faraday rotation is about 15 times tighter than the upper limit of 1380 nG inferred from constraining the contribution of Faraday rotation to two-point correlations of $B$-modes measured by Planck in 2015. Metric perturbations sourced by primordial magnetic fields would also contribute to the $B$-mode power spectrum. Using the POLARBEAR measurements of the $B$-mode power spectrum (two-point correlation), we set a 95% C.L. upper limit of 3.9 nG on primordial magnetic fields assuming a flat prior on the field amplitude. This limit is comparable to what was found in the Planck 2015 two-point correlation analysis with both temperature and polarization. We perform a set of systematic error tests and find no evidence for contamination. This work marks the first time that anisotropic cosmic birefringence or primordial magnetic fields have been constrained from the ground at subdegree scales., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. Phys. Rev. D Editors' Suggestion

We forecast the ability of cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization datasets to constrain theories of eternal inflation using cosmic bubble collisions. Using the Fisher matrix formalism, we determine both the overall detectability of bubble collisions and the constraints achievable on the fundamental parameters describing the underlying theory. The CMB signatures considered are based on state-of-the-art numerical relativistic simulations of the bubble collision spacetime, evolved using the full temperature and polarization transfer functions. Comparing a theoretical cosmic-variance-limited experiment to the WMAP and Planck satellites, we find that there is no improvement to be gained from future temperature data, that adding polarization improves detectability by approximately 30%, and that cosmic-variance-limited polarization data offer only marginal improvements over Planck. The fundamental parameter constraints achievable depend on the precise values of the tensor-to-scalar ratio and energy density in (negative) spatial curvature. For a tensor-to-scalar ratio of $0.1$ and spatial curvature at the level of $10^{-4}$, using cosmic-variance-limited data it is possible to measure the width of the potential barrier separating the inflating false vacuum from the true vacuum down to $M_{\rm Pl}/500$, and the initial proper distance between colliding bubbles to a factor $\pi/2$ of the false vacuum horizon size (at three sigma). We conclude that very near-future data will have the final word on bubble collisions in the CMB., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures

Sparse inpainting techniques are gaining in popularity as a tool for cosmological data analysis, in particular for handling data which present masked regions and missing observations. We investigate here the relationship between sparse inpainting techniques using the spherical harmonic basis as a dictionary and the isotropy properties of cosmological maps, as for instance those arising from cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. In particular, we investigate the possibility that inpainted maps may exhibit anisotropies in the behaviour of higher-order angular polyspectra. We provide analytic computations and simulations of inpainted maps for a Gaussian isotropic model of CMB data, suggesting that the resulting angular trispectrum may exhibit small but non-negligible deviations from isotropy., Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures. v3: matches version published in JCAP; formatting changes and single typo correction only. Code available from http://zuserver2.star.ucl.ac.uk/~smf/code.html

We use Bayesian model comparison to determine whether extensions to Standard-Model neutrino physics -- primarily additional effective numbers of neutrinos and/or massive neutrinos -- are merited by the latest cosmological data. Given the significant advances in cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations represented by the Planck data, we examine whether Planck temperature and CMB lensing data, in combination with lower redshift data, have strengthened (or weakened) the previous findings. We conclude that the state-of-the-art cosmological data do not show evidence for deviations from the standard cosmological model (which has three massless neutrino families). This does not mean that the model is necessarily correct -- in fact we know it is incomplete as neutrinos are not massless -- but it does imply that deviations from the standard model (e.g., non-zero neutrino mass) are too small compared to the current experimental uncertainties to be inferred from cosmological data alone., Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures, small changes to match journal accepted version

We explore how local, cosmology-independent measurements of the Hubble constant and the age of the Universe help to provide a powerful consistency check of the currently favored cosmological model (flat LambdaCDM) and model-independent constraints on cosmology. We use cosmic microwave background (CMB) data to define the model-dependent cosmological parameters, and add local measurements to assess consistency and determine whether extensions to the model are justified. At current precision, there is no significant tension between the locally measured Hubble constant and age of the Universe (with errors of 3% and 5% respectively) and the corresponding parameters derived from the CMB. However, if errors on the local measurements could be decreased by a factor of two, one could decisively conclude if there is tension or not. We also compare the local and CMB data assuming simple extensions of the flat, $\Lambda$CDM model (including curvature, dark energy with a constant equation of state parameter not equal to -1, non-zero neutrino masses and a non-standard number of neutrino families) and find no need for these extra parameters; in particular, we constrain the effective number of neutrino species to be Neff < 4 at 95% confidence. We show that local measurements provide constraints on the curvature and equation of state of dark energy nearly orthogonal to those of the CMB. We argue that cosmology-independent measurements of local quantities at the percent level would be very useful to explore cosmology in a model-independent way., Comment: Submitted to Physics of The Dark Universe Journal (minor typos fixed in this version v2)

It has been suggested that recent cosmological and flavor-oscillation data favor the existence of additional neutrino species beyond the three predicted by the Standard Model of particle physics. We apply Bayesian model selection to determine whether there is indeed any evidence from current cosmological datasets for the standard cosmological model to be extended to include additional neutrino flavors. The datasets employed include cosmic microwave background temperature, polarization and lensing power spectra, and measurements of the baryon acoustic oscillation scale and the Hubble constant. We also consider other extensions to the standard neutrino model, such as massive neutrinos, and possible degeneracies with other cosmological parameters. The Bayesian evidence indicates that current cosmological data do not require any non-standard neutrino properties., Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. v3: replaced with version published in JCAP (typo fixes, including Figure 1 units)

A number of theoretically well-motivated additions to the standard cosmological model predict weak signatures in the form of spatially localized sources embedded in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations. We present a hierarchical Bayesian statistical formalism and a complete data analysis pipeline for testing such scenarios. We derive an accurate approximation to the full posterior probability distribution over the parameters defining any theory that predicts sources embedded in the CMB, and perform an extensive set of tests in order to establish its validity. The approximation is implemented using a modular algorithm, designed to avoid a posteriori selection effects, which combines a candidate-detection stage with a full Bayesian model-selection and parameter-estimation analysis. We apply this pipeline to theories that predict cosmic textures and bubble collisions, extending previous analyses by using: (1) adaptive-resolution techniques, allowing us to probe features of arbitrary size, and (2) optimal filters, which provide the best possible sensitivity for detecting candidate signatures. We conclude that the WMAP 7-year data do not favor the addition of either cosmic textures or bubble collisions to the standard cosmological model, and place robust constraints on the predicted number of such sources. The expected numbers of bubble collisions and cosmic textures on the CMB sky within our detection thresholds are constrained to be fewer than 4.0 and 5.2 at 95% confidence, respectively., Comment: 34 pages, 18 figures. v3: corrected very minor typos to match published version

Fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) contain information which has been pivotal in establishing the current cosmological model. These data can also be used to test well-motivated additions to this model, such as cosmic textures. Textures are a type of topological defect that can be produced during a cosmological phase transition in the early universe, and which leave characteristic hot and cold spots in the CMB. We apply Bayesian methods to carry out a rigorous test of the texture hypothesis, using full-sky data from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe. We conclude that current data do not warrant augmenting the standard cosmological model with textures. We rule out at 95% confidence models that predict more than 6 detectable cosmic textures on the full sky., Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures. v2: replaced with version accepted by PRL (minor amendments to reduce length and address referee comments)

Obscuration due to Galactic emission complicates the extraction of information from cosmological surveys, and requires some combination of the (typically imperfect) modeling and subtraction of foregrounds, or the removal of part of the sky. This particularly affects the extraction of information from the largest observable scales. Maximum-likelihood estimators for reconstructing the full-sky spherical harmonic coefficients from partial-sky maps have recently been shown to be susceptible to contamination from within the sky cut, arising due to the necessity to band-limit the data by smoothing prior to reconstruction. Using the WMAP 7-year data, we investigate modified implementations of such estimators which are robust to the leakage of contaminants from within masked regions. We provide a measure, based on the expected amplitude of residual foregrounds, for selecting the most appropriate estimator for the task at hand. We explain why the related quadratic maximum-likelihood estimator of the angular power spectrum does not suffer from smoothing-induced bias., Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures. v2: replaced with version accepted by PRD (minor amendments to text only)

In the picture of eternal inflation, our observable universe resides inside a single bubble nucleated from an inflating false vacuum. Many of the theories giving rise to eternal inflation predict that we have causal access to collisions with other bubble universes, providing an opportunity to confront these theories with observation. We present the results from the first observational search for the effects of bubble collisions, using cosmic microwave background data from the WMAP satellite. Our search targets a generic set of properties associated with a bubble collision spacetime, which we describe in detail. We use a modular algorithm that is designed to avoid a posteriori selection effects, automatically picking out the most promising signals, performing a search for causal boundaries, and conducting a full Bayesian parameter estimation and model selection analysis. We outline each component of this algorithm, describing its response to simulated CMB skies with and without bubble collisions. Comparing the results for simulated bubble collisions to the results from an analysis of the WMAP 7-year data, we rule out bubble collisions over a range of parameter space. Our model selection results based on WMAP 7-year data do not warrant augmenting LCDM with bubble collisions. Data from the Planck satellite can be used to more definitively test the bubble collision hypothesis., Comment: Companion to arXiv:1012.1995. 41 pages, 23 figures. v2: replaced with version accepted by PRD. Significant extensions to the Bayesian pipeline to do the full-sky non-Gaussian source detection problem (previously restricted to patches). Note that this has changed the normalization of evidence values reported previously, as full-sky priors are now employed, but the conclusions remain unchanged

The eternal inflation scenario predicts that our observable universe resides inside a single bubble embedded in a vast inflating multiverse. We present the first observational tests of eternal inflation, performing a search for cosmological signatures of collisions with other bubble universes in cosmic microwave background data from the WMAP satellite. We conclude that the WMAP 7-year data do not warrant augmenting LCDM with bubble collisions, constraining the average number of detectable bubble collisions on the full sky to be less than 1.6 at 68% CL. Data from the Planck satellite can be used to more definitively test the bubble collision hypothesis., Comment: Companion to arXiv:1012.3667. 5 pages, 2 figures. v3: replaced with version accepted by PRL. Significant extensions to the Bayesian pipeline to do the full-sky non-Gaussian source detection problem (previously restricted to patches). Note that this has changed the normalization of evidence values reported previously, as full-sky priors are now employed, but the conclusions remain unchanged

UNKNOWN

The Simons Observatory (SO) is a ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment sited on Cerro Toco in the Atacama Desert in Chile that promises to provide breakthrough discoveries in fundamental physics, cosmology, and astrophysics. Supported by the Simons Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, and with contributions from collaborating institutions, SO will see first light in 2021 and start a five year survey in 2022. SO has 287 collaborators from 12 countries and 53 institutions, including 85 students and 90 postdocs. The SO experiment in its currently funded form (‘SO-Nominal’) consists of three 0.4 m Small Aperture Telescopes (SATs) and one 6 m Large Aperture Telescope (LAT). Optimized for minimizing systematic errors in polarization measurements at large angular scales, the SATs will perform a deep, degree-scale survey of 10% of the sky to search for the signature of primordial gravitational waves. The LAT will survey 40% of the sky with arc-minute resolution. These observations will measure (or limit) the sum of neutrino masses, search for light relics, measure the early behavior of Dark Energy, and refine our understanding of the intergalactic medium, clusters and the role of feedback in galaxy formation. With up to ten times the sensitivity and five times the angular resolution of the Planck satellite, and roughly an order of magnitude increase in mapping speed over currently operating (“Stage 3”) experiments, SO will measure the CMB temperature and polarization fluctuations to exquisite precision in six frequency bands from 27 to 280 GHz. SO will rapidly advance CMB science while informing the design of future observatories such as CMB-S4. Construction of SO-Nominal is fully funded, and operations and data analysis are funded for part of the planned five-year observations. We will seek federal funding to complete the observations and analysis of SO-Nominal, at the $25M level. The SO has a low risk and cost efficient upgrade path – the 6 m LAT can accommodate almost twice the baseline number of detectors and the SATs can be duplicated at low cost. We will seek funding at the $75M level for an expansion of the SO (‘SO-Enhanced’) that fills the remaining focal plane in the LAT, adds three SATs, and extends operations by five years, substantially improving our science return. By this time SO may be operating as part of the larger CMB-S4 project. This white paper summarizes and extends material presented in, which describes the science goals of SO-Nominal, and which describe the instrument design.