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Objective To estimate the numbers of COVID‐19‐related hospitalisations in Australia after re‐opening the international border. Design Population‐level deterministic compartmental epidemic modelling of eight scenarios applying various assumptions regarding SARS‐CoV‐2 transmissibility (baseline R 0 = 3.5 or 7.0), vaccine rollout speed (slow or fast), and scale of border re‐opening (mean of 2500 or 13 000 overseas arrivals per day). Setting Simulation population size, age structure, and age‐based contact rates based on recent estimates for the Australian population. We assumed that 80% vaccination coverage of people aged 16 years or more was reached in mid‐October 2021 (fast rollout) or early January 2022 (slow rollout). Main outcome measures Numbers of people admitted to hospital with COVID‐19, December 2021 ‒ December 2022. Results In scenarios assuming a highly transmissible SARS‐CoV‐2 variant (R 0 = 7.0), opening the international border on either scale was followed by surges in both infections and hospitalisations that would require public health measures beyond mask wearing and social distancing to avoid overwhelming the health system. Reducing the number of hospitalisations to manageable levels required several cycles of additional social and mobility restrictions. Conclusions If highly transmissible SARS‐CoV‐2 variants are circulating locally or overseas, large and disruptive COVID‐19 outbreaks will still be possible in Australia after 80% of people aged 16 years or more have been vaccinated. Continuing public health measures to restrict the spread of disease are likely to be necessary throughout 2022.

Objectives To estimate initial levels of symptoms of depression and anxiety, and their changes during the early months of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Australia; to identify trajectories of symptoms of depression and anxiety; to identify factors associated with these trajectories. Design, setting, participants Longitudinal cohort study; seven fortnightly online surveys of a representative sample of 1296 Australian adults from the beginning of COVID‐19‐related restrictions in late March 2020 to mid‐June 2020. Main outcome measures Symptoms of depression and anxiety, measured with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ‐9) depression and Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD‐7) scales; trajectories of symptom change. Results Younger age, being female, greater COVID‐19‐related work and social impairment, COVID‐19‐related financial distress, having a neurological or mental illness diagnosis, and recent adversity were each significantly associated with higher baseline depression and anxiety scores. Growth mixture models identified three latent trajectories for depression symptoms (low throughout the study, 81% of participants; moderate throughout the study, 10%; initially severe then declining, 9%) and four for anxiety symptoms (low throughout the study, 77%; initially moderate then increasing, 10%; initially moderate then declining, 5%; initially mild then increasing before again declining, 8%). Factors statistically associated with not having a low symptom trajectory included mental disorder diagnoses, COVID‐19‐related financial distress and social and work impairment, and bushfire exposure. Conclusion Our longitudinal data enabled identification of distinct symptom trajectories during the first three months of the COVID‐19 pandemic in Australia. Early intervention to ensure that vulnerable people are clinically and socially supported during a pandemic should be a priority.

INTRODUCTION: The 2001 Recommendations for clinical care guidelines on the management of otitis media in Aboriginal and Torres Islander populations were revised in 2010. This 2020 update by the Centre of Research Excellence in Ear and Hearing Health of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Children used for the first time the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS: We performed systematic reviews of evidence across prevention, diagnosis, prognosis and management. We report ten algorithms to guide diagnosis and clinical management of all forms of otitis media. The guidelines include 14 prevention and 37 treatment strategies addressing 191 questions. CHANGES IN MANAGEMENT AS A RESULT OF THE GUIDELINES: A GRADE approach is used. Targeted recommendations for both high and low risk children. New tympanostomy tube otorrhoea section. New Priority 5 for health services: annual and catch-up ear health checks for at-risk children. Antibiotics are strongly recommended for persistent otitis media with effusion in high risk children. Azithromycin is strongly recommended for acute otitis media where adherence is difficult or there is no access to refrigeration. Concurrent audiology and surgical referrals are recommended where delays are likely. Surgical referral is recommended for chronic suppurative otitis media at the time of diagnosis. The use of autoinflation devices is recommended for some children with persistent otitis media with effusion. Definitions for mild (21-30 dB) and moderate (> 30 dB) hearing impairment have been updated. New "OMapp" enables free fast access to the guidelines, plus images, animations, and multiple Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander language audio translations to aid communication with families.

Objectives To estimate SARS‐CoV‐2‐specific antibody seroprevalence after the first epidemic wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) in Sydney. Setting, participants People of any age who had provided blood for testing at selected diagnostic pathology services (general pathology); pregnant women aged 20–39 years who had received routine antenatal screening; and Australian Red Cross Lifeblood plasmapheresis donors aged 20–69 years. Design Cross‐sectional study; testing of de‐identified residual blood specimens collected during 20 April – 2 June 2020. Main outcome measure Estimated proportions of people seropositive for anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2‐specific IgG, adjusted for test sensitivity and specificity. Results Thirty‐eight of 5339 specimens were IgG‐positive (general pathology, 19 of 3231; antenatal screening, 7 of 560; plasmapheresis donors, 12 of 1548); there were no clear patterns by age group, sex, or location of residence. Adjusted estimated seroprevalence among people who had had general pathology blood tests (all ages) was 0.15% (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.04–0.41%), and 0.29% (95% CrI, 0.04–0.75%) for plasmapheresis donors (20–69 years). Among 20–39‐year‐old people, the age group common to all three collection groups, adjusted estimated seroprevalence was 0.24% (95% CrI, 0.04–0.80%) for the general pathology group, 0.79% (95% CrI, 0.04–1.88%) for the antenatal screening group, and 0.69% (95% CrI, 0.04–1.59%) for plasmapheresis donors. Conclusions Estimated SARS‐CoV‐2 seroprevalence was below 1%, indicating that community transmission was low during the first COVID‐19 epidemic wave in Sydney. These findings suggest that early control of the spread of COVID‐19 was successful, but efforts to reduce further transmission remain important.

Objectives To analyse the outcomes of COVID-19 vaccination by vaccine type, age group eligibility, vaccination strategy, and population coverage. Design Epidemiologic modelling to assess the final size of a COVID-19 epidemic in Australia, with vaccination program (Pfizer, AstraZeneca, mixed), vaccination strategy (vulnerable first, transmitters first, untargeted), age group eligibility threshold (5 or 15 years), population coverage, and pre-vaccination effective reproduction number ( R eff v ¯ ) for the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant as factors. Main outcome measures Numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections; cumulative hospitalisations, deaths, and years of life lost. Results Assuming R eff v ¯ = 5, the current mixed vaccination program (vaccinating people aged 60 or more with the AstraZeneca vaccine and people under 60 with the Pfizer vaccine) will not achieve herd protection unless population vaccination coverage reaches 85% by lowering the vaccination eligibility age to 5 years. At R eff v ¯ = 3, the mixed program could achieve herd protection at 60-70% population coverage and without vaccinating 5-15-year-old children. At R eff v ¯ = 7, herd protection is unlikely to be achieved with currently available vaccines, but they would still reduce the number of COVID-19-related deaths by 85%. Conclusion Vaccinating vulnerable people first is the optimal policy when population vaccination coverage is low, but vaccinating more socially active people becomes more important as the R eff v ¯ declines and vaccination coverage increases. Assuming the most plausible R eff v ¯ of 5, vaccinating more than 85% of the population, including children, would be needed to achieve herd protection. Even without herd protection, vaccines are highly effective in reducing the number of deaths.

This perspective explores the landscape of COVID-19 trials recruiting in Australia using trial registry data. We identified 56 trials addressing treatment and prevention of COVID-19, and 12 trials addressing indirect effects of the pandemic. Whilst there was substantial innovation in drug development and digital health, the potential of innovation in methodology, such as adaptive trials, remains largely untapped. Data sharing intentions were low, sample sizes were too small to detect differences in clinical outcomes, such as mortality, and lack of core outcome collection precludes evidence synthesis. Infrastructure for innovation would support coordination of research efforts, and reduce research waste.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) during the initial months of the pandemic in Australia. DESIGN, SETTING: Prospective, observational cohort study in 77 ICUs across Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Patients admitted to participating ICUs with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 during 27 February - 30 June 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ICU mortality and resource use (ICU length of stay, peak bed occupancy). RESULTS: The median age of the 204 patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care was 63.5 years (IQR, 53-72 years); 140 were men (69%). The most frequent comorbid conditions were obesity (40% of patients), diabetes (28%), hypertension treated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers (24%), and chronic cardiac disease (20%); 73 patients (36%) reported no comorbidity. The most frequent source of infection was overseas travel (114 patients, 56%). Median peak ICU bed occupancy was 14% (IQR, 9-16%). Invasive ventilation was provided for 119 patients (58%). Median length of ICU stay was greater for invasively ventilated patients than for non-ventilated patients (16 days; IQR, 9-28 days v 3 days; IQR, 2-5 days), as was ICU mortality (26 deaths, 22%; 95% CI, 15-31% v four deaths, 5%; 95% CI, 1-12%). Higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) scores on ICU day 1 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.15; 95% CI, 1.09-1.21) and chronic cardiac disease (aHR, 3.38; 95% CI, 1.46-7.83) were each associated with higher ICU mortality. CONCLUSION: Until the end of June 2020, mortality among patients with COVID-19 who required invasive ventilation in Australian ICUs was lower and their ICU stay longer than reported overseas. Our findings highlight the importance of ensuring adequate local ICU capacity, particularly as the pandemic has not yet ended.

To quantify the burden of invasive group A Streptococcus (GAS) disease in Western Australia during 2000-2018.Population-based data linkage study: Hospital Morbidity Data Collection (HMDC; all WA public and private hospital records), PathWest pathology data (government-owned pathology services provider), and death registrations.People with invasive GAS disease, defined by an isolate from a normally sterile site (PathWest) or a hospital-based principal ICD-10-AM diagnosis code (HMDC).Incidence of invasive GAS disease; median length of hospital stay; all-cause mortality.We identified 2237 cases of GAS disease during 2000-2018; 1283 were in male patients (57%). 1950 cases had been confirmed by GAS isolates from normally sterile tissues (87%; including 1089 from blood [56% of cases] and 750 from tissue [38%]). The age-standardised incidence increased from 2.0 (95% CI, 1.4-2.7) cases per 100 000 population in 2000 to 9.1 (95% CI, 7.9-10.2) cases per 100 000 in 2017 (by year, adjusted for age group and sex: incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.09; 95% CI, 1.08-1.10). Incidence was consistently higher among Indigenous than non-Indigenous Australians (year-adjusted IRR, 13.1; 95% CI, 11.3-15.1). All-cause 30-day mortality was 5% (116 deaths), and 90-day mortality 7% (156 deaths); 30-day mortality, adjusted for age group and sex, was not statistically significantly different for cases involving Indigenous or non-Indigenous patients (adjusted odds ratio, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.6-1.1).The incidence of invasive GAS disease in WA increased between 2000 and 2018, particularly among Indigenous Australians. Mandatory notification of invasive GAS disease would therefore be appropriate. The social determinants of differences in incidence should be addressed, and other relevant host, pathogen, and health system factors investigated.