Search

In statistical seismology, the Epidemic Type Aftershocks Sequence (ETAS) model is a branching process used world-wide to forecast earthquake intensity rates and reproduce many statistical features observed in seismicity catalogs. In this paper, we describe a fractional differential equation that governs the earthquake intensity rate of the pure temporal ETAS model by using the Caputo fractional derivative and we solve it analytically. We highlight that the tools and special functions of fractional calculus simplify the classical methods employed to obtain the intensity rate and let us describe the change of solution decay for large times. We also apply and discuss the theoretical results to the Japanese catalog in the period 1965-2003.

We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be proved, in particular for the expected intensity of the point process and for the expected number of events of the counting process. These analytical results are used to validate algorithms that numerically invert the Laplace transform of the expected intensity as well as Monte Carlo simulations of the process. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to derive the full distribution of the number of events. The algorithms used for this paper are available at {\tt https://github.com/habyarimanacassien/Fractional-Hawkes}., Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures. This version includes the exact inversion of a Laplace transform that we previously inverted only numerically

We study three non-equivalent queueing models in continuous time that each generalise the classical M/M/1 queue in a different way. Inter-event times in all models are Mittag-Leffler distributed, which is a heavy tail distribution with no moments. For each of the models we answer the question of the queue being at zero infinitely often (the `recurrence' or `stable' regime) or not (the transient regime). Aside from this question, the different analytical properties of each models allow us to answer a number of questions such as existence and description of equilibrium distributions, mixing times, asymptotic behaviour of return probabilities and moments and functional limit theorems., 31 pages, 7 figures

We introduce two classes of point processes: a fractional non-homogeneous Poisson process of order k and a fractional non-homogeneous Pólya-Aeppli process of order k: We characterize these processes by deriving their non-local governing equations. We further study the covariance structure of the processes and investigate the long-range dependence property.

We discuss various limits of a simple random exchange model that can be used for the distribution of wealth. We start from a discrete state space - discrete time version of this model and, under suitable scaling, we show its functional convergence to a continuous space - discrete time model. Then, we show a thermodynamic limit of the empirical distribution to the solution of a kinetic equation of Boltzmann type. We solve this equation and we show that the solutions coincide with the appropriate limits of the invariant measure for the Markov chain. In this way we complete Boltzmann's program of deriving kinetic equations from random dynamics for this simple model. Three families of invariant measures for the mean field limit are discovered and we show that only two of those families can be obtained as limits of the discrete system and the third is extraneous. Finally, we cast our results in the framework of integer partitions and strengthen some results already available in the literature., 33 pages, 2 figures, to be submitted

The y-basin of attraction of the zero solution of a nonlinear stochastic differential equation can be determined through a pair of a local and a non-local Lyapunov function. In this paper, we construct a non-local Lyapunov function by solving a second-order PDE using meshless collocation. We provide a-posteriori error estimates which guarantee that the constructed function is indeed a non-local Lyapunov function. Combining this method with the computation of a local Lyapunov function for the linearisation around an equilibrium of the stochastic differential equation in question, a problem which is much more manageable than computing a Lyapunov function in a large area containing the equilibrium, we provide a rigorous estimate of the stochastic y-basin of attraction of the equilibrium.

This paper is devoted to a fractional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution. The form of the multivariate distribution is derived assuming that the $n$ partitions of the interval $[0,W_n]$ are independent and identically distributed random variables following the generalized Mittag-Leffler distribution. The expected value and variance of the one-dimensional marginal are derived as well as the form of its probability density function. A related generalized Dirichlet distribution is studied that provides a reasonable approximation for some values of the parameters. The relation between this distribution and other generalizations of the Dirichlet distribution is discussed. Monte Carlo simulations of the one-dimensional marginals for both distributions are presented.

We modify ETAS models by replacing the Pareto-like kernel proposed by Ogata with a Mittag-Leffler type kernel. Provided that the kernel decays as a power law with exponent β + 1 ∈ (1, 2], this replacement has the advantage that the Laplace transform of the Mittag-Leffler function is known explicitly, leading to simpler calculation of relevant quantities

We discuss a simple random exchange model for the distribution of wealth. There are N agents, each one endowed with a fraction of the total wealth; indebtedness is not possible, so wealth fractions are positive random variables. At each step, two agents are randomly selected, their wealths are first merged and then randomly split into two parts. We start from a discrete state space, discrete time version of this model and, under suitable scaling, we present its functional convergence to a continuous space, discrete time model. Then, we discuss how a continuous time version of the one-point marginal Markov chain functionally converges to a kinetic equation of Boltzmann type. Solutions to this equation are presented and they coincide with the appropriate limits of the invariant measure for the marginal Markov chain. In this way, in this simple case, we complete Boltzmann’s programme of deriving kinetic equations from random dynamics.

In this paper, we provide a statistical analysis of high-resolution contact pattern data within primary and secondary schools as collected by the SocioPatterns collaboration. Students are graphically represented as nodes in a temporally evolving network, in which links represent proximity or interaction between students. This article focuses on link- and node-level statistics, such as the on- and off-durations of links as well as the activity potential of nodes and links. Parametric models are fitted to the on- and off-durations of links, inter-event times and node activity potentials and, based on these, we propose a number of theoretical models that are able to reproduce the collected data within varying levels of accuracy. By doing so, we aim to identify the minimal network-level properties that are needed to closely match the real-world data, with the aim of combining this contact pattern model with epidemic models in future work., 18 pages, 5 figures, 5 tables

This study demonstrates the effect of correlation between volatility and statistical properties of realized volatility measured using the daily high-frequency exchange rate data of four representative currencies of the US dollar (Japanese yen, British pound, European euro, Canadian dollar) Respectively. The validity of the distributional and dynamic attributes of realized volatility is consistent with the results of previous studies. In the case of the Japanese yen, however, the correlation between the volatility and the correlation was not observed. This is due to the negative result of the exchange rate and the negative exchange rate during the Japanese government's continuous intervention in the foreign exchange market. These results show that the relationship between volatility and correlation (+) is not a general phenomenon in the presence of foreign exchange market intervention, and that foreign exchange market intervention can distort market efficiency. The results of this study indicate that multivariate measures of real volatility using day - to - day high frequency data can be a useful tool for identifying external interventions to the foreign exchange market. This paper empirically examines the statistical properties of realized volatility and the relationship between volatility and correlation measurements realized by using intraday high-frequency foreign exchange (FX) rates. Results regarding the distributional and dynamic properties of the volatility are in agreement with the findings of previous studies. However, the positive correlation is present in previous studies. On trading days with low volatility in the FX market, the correlation coefficients between JPY and other currencies have positive values, while the correlation coefficients on trading days with high volatility show negative values. These results are due to the Japanese government's intervention in the FX market, especially during trading days with high volatility. In this regard, our results suggest that the positive relationship between volatility and correlations is not a general phenomenon in the case of government intervention and government intervention. In addition, we show that the multivariate measurement of volatility based on intraday high-frequency data is a useful tool for determining the occurrence of external intervention in the FX market.

We study the global asymptotic stability in probability of the zero solution of linear stochastic differential equations with constant coefficients. We develop a sum-of-squares program that verifies whether a parameterized candidate Lyapunov function is in fact a global Lyapunov function for such a system. Our class of candidate Lyapunov functions are naturally adapted to the problem. We consider functions of the form \begin{document} $V(\mathbf{x}) = \|\mathbf{x}\|_Q^p: = (\mathbf{x}^\top Q\mathbf{x})^{\frac{p}{2}}$ \end{document} , where the parameters are the positive definite matrix \begin{document} $Q$ \end{document} and the number \begin{document} $p>0$ \end{document} . We give several examples of our proposed method and show how it improves previous results.

We consider a simplified model of the continuous double auction where prices are integers varying from $1$ to $N$ with limit orders and market orders, but quantity per order limited to a single share. For this model, the order process is equivalent to two $M/M/1$ queues. We study the behaviour of the auction in the low-traffic limit where limit orders are immediately transformed into market orders. In this limit, the distribution of prices can be computed exactly and gives a reasonable approximation of the price distribution when the ratio between the rate of order arrivals and the rate of order executions is below $1/2$. This is further confirmed by the analysis of the first passage time in $1$ or $N$., Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 1 appendix

This study investigates the level of risk due to fat tails of the return distribution and the changes of tail fatness (TF) through portfolio diversification. TF is not eliminated through portfolio diversification, and, interestingly, the positive tail has declining fatness until a certain level is reached, while the negative tail has rising fatness. This indicates that fat tails are highly relevant to common factors on systematic risk and that the relevance of common factors is higher for the negative tail compared to the positive tail. In the portfolio diversification effect, the declining fatness of the positive tail further reduces risk, but the rising fatness of the negative tail does not contribute to this effect. The asymmetry between the fatness of the positive and negative tails in the return distribution corresponds to the asymmetry of the trade-off relationship between loss avoidance and profit sacrifice that is expected as a consequence of portfolio diversification. Investors use portfolio diversification to reduce their risk of suffering high losses, but following this strategy means sacrificing high-profit potential. Our study provides empirical confirmation for the practical limitation of portfolio diversification and explains why investors with diversified portfolios suffer high losses from market crashes. An examination of the Northeast Asian stock markets of China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan show identical results.

I am presenting my personal point of view on what is interesting in Econophysics. In particular, I focus on random exchange models for the distribution of wealth in order to illustrate the concept of statistical equilibrium in Economics.

The fractional non-homogeneous Poisson process was introduced by a time-change of the non-homogeneous Poisson process with the inverse $\alpha$-stable subordinator. We propose a similar definition for the (non-homogeneous) fractional compound Poisson process. We give both finite-dimensional and functional limit theorems for the fractional non-homogeneous Poisson process and the fractional compound Poisson process. The results are derived by using martingale methods, regular variation properties and Anscombe's theorem. Eventually, some of the limit results are verified in a Monte Carlo simulation., Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures

We study tick-by-tick financial returns belonging to the FTSE MIB index of the Italian Stock Exchange (Borsa Italiana). We can confirm previously detected non-stationarities. However, scaling properties reported in the previous literature for other high-frequency financial data are only approximately valid. As a consequence of the empirical analyses, we propose a simple method for describing non-stationary returns, based on a non-homogeneous normal compound Poisson process. We test this model against the empirical findings and it turns out that the model can approximately reproduce several stylized facts of high-frequency financial time series. Moreover, using Monte Carlo simulations, we analyze order selection for this model class using three information criteria: Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Hannan-Quinn information criterion (HQ). For comparison, we also perform a similar Monte Carlo experiment for the ACD (autoregressive conditional duration) model. Our results show that the information criteria work best for small parameter numbers for the compound Poisson type models, whereas for the ACD model the model selection procedure does not work well in certain cases., This version contains an additional analysis on model selection based on information criteria. Version submitted to PLOS ONE

The recent book by T. Piketty (Capital in the Twenty-First Century) promoted the important issue of wealth inequality. In the last twenty years, physicists and mathematicians developed models to derive the wealth distribution using discrete and continuous stochastic processes (random exchange models) as well as related Boltzmann-type kinetic equations. In this literature, the usual concept of equilibrium in economics is either replaced or completed by statistical equilibrium. In order to illustrate this activity with a concrete example, we present a stylised random exchange model for the distribution of wealth. We first discuss a fully discrete version (a Markov chain with finite state space). We then study its discretetime continuous-state-space version, and we prove the existence of the equilibrium distribution. Finally, we discuss the connection of these models with Boltzmannlike kinetic equations for the marginal distribution of wealth. This paper shows in practice how it is possible to start from a finitary description and connect it to continuous models following Boltzmann’s original research programme.

Rare event simulation is vital for industrial design because some events, so-called black swans, can have fatal consequences despite their low probability of occurrence. Finding low-probability events far off the mean design is a challenging task for realistic engineering models because they are characterized by high computational demands, many input variables, and often insufficient statistical information to build parametric probability distributions. Therefore, an adaptive and arbitrary polynomial chaos method, called sparse approximation of moment-based arbitrary polynomial chaos, is suggested in this work. Sparse approximation of moment-based arbitrary polynomial chaos creates custom polynomial basis functions and grids based on statistical moments to avoid incorrect statistical assumptions. The contribution of this work is that it is derived how rare event simulation can conveniently be integrated into adaptive sparse grid methods by calculating polynomial chaos expansions based on the statistical moments of truncated fat-tailed distributions. Moreover, the use of tempered alpha-stable distributions is suggested to avoid discontinuous tail cutoffs. Sparse approximation of moment-based arbitrary polynomial chaos is compared to other statistical methods in two industrial aircraft engine simulations: a simulation of transient cycle temperature in a turbine cavity and hot-gas ingestion in the interwheel region. In both cases, sparse approximation of moment-based arbitrary polynomial chaos agrees with previous results but obtains them with lower computational effort.

We test three common information criteria (IC) for selecting the order of a Hawkes process with an intensity kernel that can be expressed as a mixture of exponential terms. These processes find application in high-frequency financial data modelling. The information criteria are Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQ). Since we work with simulated data, we are able to measure the performance of model selection by the success rate of the IC in selecting the model that was used to generate the data. In particular, we are interested in the relation between correct model selection and underlying sample size. The analysis includes realistic sample sizes and parameter sets from recent literature where parameters were estimated using empirical financial intra-day data. We compare our results to theoretical predictions and similar empirical findings on the asymptotic distribution of model selection for consistent and inconsistent IC.

Using two simple examples, the continuous-time random walk as well as a two state Markov chain, the relation between generalized anomalous relaxation equations and semi-Markov processes is illustrated. This relation is then used to discuss continuous-time random statistics in a general setting, for statistics of convolution-type. Two examples are presented in some detail: the sum statistic and the maximum statistic., Comment: 12 pages, submitted to EPJB

This study empirically re-examines fat tails in stock return distributions by applying statistical methods to an extensive dataset taken from the Korean stock market. The tails of the return distributions are shown to be much fatter in recent periods than in past periods and much fatter for small-capitalization stocks than for large-capitalization stocks. After controlling for the 1997 Korean foreign currency crisis and using the GARCH filter models to control for volatility clustering in the returns, the fat tails in the distribution of residuals are found to persist. We show that market crashes and volatility clustering may not sufficiently account for the existence of fat tails in return distributions. These findings are robust regardless of period or type of stock group., Comment: 24 pages, 4 Tables, 3 Figures

We introduce a non-homogeneous fractional Poisson process by replacing the time variable in the fractional Poisson process of renewal type with an appropriate function of time. We characterize the resulting process by deriving its non-local governing equation. We further compute the first and second moments of the process. Eventually, we derive the distribution of arrival times. Constant reference is made to previous known results in the homogeneous case and to how they can be derived from the specialization of the non-homogeneous process., Comment: 15 pages

This paper introduces a generalization of the so-called space-fractional Poisson process by extending the difference operator acting on state space present in the associated difference-differential equations to a much more general form. It turns out that this generalization can be put in relation to a specific subordination of a homogeneous Poisson process by means of a subordinator for which it is possible to express the characterizing L\'evy measure explicitly. Moreover, the law of this subordinator solves a one-sided first-order differential equation in which a particular convolution-type integral operator appears, called Prabhakar derivative. In the last section of the paper, a similar model is introduced in which the Prabhakar derivative also acts in time. In this case, too, the probability generating function of the corresponding process and the probability distribution are determined.

Continuous-time random walks, or compound renewal processes, are pure-jump stochastic processes with several applications in insurance, finance, economics and physics. Based on heuristic considerations, a definition is given for stochastic integrals driven by continuous-time random walks, which includes the Ito and Stratonovich cases. It is then shown how the definition can be used to compute these two stochastic integrals by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Our example is based on the normal compound Poisson process, which in the diffusive limit converges to the Wiener process.