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Submitted by FERREIRA (dario@ubi.pt) on 2020-02-05T17:35:04Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2019 - Considering the sample sizes as truncated Poisson random variables in mixed effects models.pdf: 1514793 bytes, checksum: 5685510c491d043015cf3345496b6131 (MD5) Approved for entry into archive by Pessoa (pfep@ubi.pt) on 2020-02-06T12:12:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2019 - Considering the sample sizes as truncated Poisson random variables in mixed effects models.pdf: 1514793 bytes, checksum: 5685510c491d043015cf3345496b6131 (MD5) Approved for entry into archive by Pessoa (pfep@ubi.pt) on 2020-02-06T12:17:20Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2019 - Considering the sample sizes as truncated Poisson random variables in mixed effects models.pdf: 1514793 bytes, checksum: 5685510c491d043015cf3345496b6131 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2020-02-06T12:17:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2019 - Considering the sample sizes as truncated Poisson random variables in mixed effects models.pdf: 1514793 bytes, checksum: 5685510c491d043015cf3345496b6131 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019 info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Submitted by NUNES (celian@ubi.pt) on 2020-02-11T15:37:23Z No. of bitstreams: 1 3_Balanced prime basis factorial fixed effects model.pdf: 1141878 bytes, checksum: a7dc18e23f12b151ed831fe70d054650 (MD5) Approved for entry into archive by Pessoa (pfep@ubi.pt) on 2020-02-19T14:37:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 3_Balanced prime basis factorial fixed effects model.pdf: 1141878 bytes, checksum: a7dc18e23f12b151ed831fe70d054650 (MD5) Approved for entry into archive by Pessoa (pfep@ubi.pt) on 2020-02-19T14:41:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 3_Balanced prime basis factorial fixed effects model.pdf: 1141878 bytes, checksum: a7dc18e23f12b151ed831fe70d054650 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2020-02-19T14:41:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 3_Balanced prime basis factorial fixed effects model.pdf: 1141878 bytes, checksum: a7dc18e23f12b151ed831fe70d054650 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019 info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The recent interest in wild edible plants is associated with their health benefits, which are mainly due to their richness in antioxidant compounds, particularly phenolics. Nevertheless, some of these compounds are metabolized after ingestion, being transformed into metabolites frequently with lower antioxidant activity. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of the digestive process on the total phenolic contents and antioxidant activity of extracts from four wild edible plants used in the Mediterranean diet (Beta maritima L., Plantago major L., Oxalis pes-caprae L. and Scolymus hispanicus L.). HPLC-DAD analysis revealed that S. hispanicus is characterized by the presence of caffeoylquinic acids, dicaffeoylquinic acids and flavonol derivatives, P. major by high amounts of verbascoside, B. maritima possesses 2,4-dihydroxybenzoic acid, 5-O-caffeoylquinic acid, quercetin derivatives and kaempferol-3-O-rutinoside, and O. pes-caprae extract contains hydroxycinnamic acids and flavone derivatives. Total phenolic contents were determined by Folin-Ciocalteu assay, and antioxidant activity by the ABTS, DPPH, ORAC and FRAP assays. Phenolic contents of P. major and S. hispanicus extracts were not affected by digestion, but they significantly decreased in B. maritima after both phases of digestion process and in O. pes-caprae after the gastric phase. The antioxidant activity results varied with the extract and the method used to evaluate the activity. Results showed that P. major extract has the highest total phenolic contents and antioxidant activity, with considerable values even after digestion, reinforcing the health benefits of this species. European Union (FEDER funds through COMPETE)European Union (EU) European Union (FEDER)European Union (EU) Programa de Cooperacion Interreg V-A Espana - Portugal (POCTEP) 2014-2020 [0377_IBERPHENOL_6_E] project INTERREG - MD. Net: When Brand Meets People FCT Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology

Markov chain and 3-dimensional log-linear models were attempted to model drought class transitions derived from the newly developed drought index the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at a 12 month time scale for six major drought prone areas of India. Log-linear modelling approach has been used to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions using SPEI-12 time series derived form 48 yeas monthly rainfall and temperature data. In this study, the probabilities of drought class transition, the mean residence time, the 1, 2 or 3 months ahead prediction of average transition time between drought classes and the drought severity class have been derived. Seasonality of precipitation has been derived for non-homogeneous Markov chains which could be used to explain the effect of the potential retreat of drought. Quasi-association and Quasi-symmetry log-linear models have been fitted to the drought class transitions derived from SPEI-12 time series. The estimates of odds along with their confidence intervals were obtained to explain the progression of drought and estimation of drought class transition probabilities. For initial months as the drought severity increases the calculated odds shows lower value and the odds decreases for the succeeding months. This indicates that the ratio of expected frequencies of occurrence of transition from drought class to the non-drought class decreases as compared to transition to any drought class when the drought severity of the present class increases. From 3-dimensional log-linear model it is clear that during the last 24 years the drought probability has increased for almost all the six regions. The findings from the present study will immensely help to assess the impact of drought on the gross primary production and to develop future contingent planning in similar regions worldwide.

Toxoplasma gondii is a parasitic protozoan that affects about a third of the world population.

A log-linear modelling for 3-dimensional contingency tables was used with categorical time series of SPI drought class transitions for prediction of monthly drought severity. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series in 12- and 6-month time scales were computed for 10 precipitation time series relative to GPCC datasets with 2.5° spatial resolution located over Portugal and with 112 years length (1902–2014). The aim was modelling two-month step class transitions for the wet and dry seasons of the year and then obtain probability ratios – Odds – as well as their respective confidence intervals to estimate how probable a transition is compared to another. The prediction results produced by the modelling applied to wet and dry season separately, for the 6- and the 12-month SPI time scale, were compared with the results produced by the same modelling without the split, using skill scores computed for the entire time series length. Results point to good prediction performances ranging from 70 to 80% in the percentage of corrects (PC) and 50–70% in the Heidke skill score (HSS), with the highest scores obtained when the modelling is applied to the SPI12. The adding up of the wet and dry seasons introduced in the modelling brought improvements in the predictions, of about 0.9–4% in the PC and 1.3–6.8% in the HSS, being the highest improvements obtained in the SPI6 application.

Adequately analyzing and modeling the extreme rainfall events is of great importance because of the effects that their magnitude and frequency can have on human life, agricultural productivity and economic aspects, among others. A single extreme event may affect several locations, and their spatial dependence has to be appropriately taken into account. Classical geostatistics is a well-developed field for dealing with location referenced data, but it is largely based on Gaussian processes and distributions, that are not appropriate for extremes. In this paper, an exploratory study of the annual maximum of monthly precipitation recorded in the northern area of Portugal from 1941 to 2006 at 32 locations is performed. The aim of this paper is to apply max-stable processes, a natural extension of multivariate extremes to the spatial set-up, to briefly describe the models considered and to estimate the required parameters to simulate prediction maps.

Rubella is an acute viral disease that usually does not generate sequels; however, in pregnant women the infection can cause serious abnormalities to fetuses, which are collectively called congenital rubella syndrome. In Brazil, population immunization was started in 1992, but few epidemiological studies have been conducted to assess vaccination coverage and seroconversion since then. The aim of this work is to evaluate the seropositivity of pregnant women to rubella virus after vaccination campaign was carried out in 2008. Serological tests for rubella diagnosis were performed in 87 pregnant women who attended the University of Brasilia Hospital, Federal District, Brazil. Antirubella IgG antibodies were detected in 83 out of 87 pregnant women (95.4%), with an age-independent seroprevalence. Only one woman was positive in IgM serological tests. Our data suggest high levels of vaccination coverage and antirubella immunization in the Brazil Federal District population.

This work was partially supported by the research project PTDC/AGR-AAM/71649/2006 - Droughts Risk Management: Identification, Monitoring, Characterization, Prediction and Mitigation as well as by CMA/FCT/UNL under the project PEst-OE/MAT/UI0297/2011. Long time series (95 to 135 yr) of the 12-month time scale Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) relative to 10 locations across Portugal were studied with the aim of investigating if drought frequency and severity are changing through time. Considering four drought severity classes, time series of drought class transitions were computed and later divided into several sub-periods according to the length of SPI time series. Drought class transitions were calculated to form a 2-dimensional contingency table for each sub-period, which refer to the number of transitions among drought severity classes. Two-dimensional log-linear models were fitted to these contingency tables and an ANOVA-like inference was then performed in order to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions among those sub-periods, which were considered as treatments of only one factor. The application of ANOVA-like inference to these data allowed to compare the sub-periods in terms of probabilities of transition between drought classes, which were used to detect a possible trend in droughts frequency and severity. Results for a number of locations show some similarity between alternate sub-periods and differences between consecutive ones regarding the persistency of severe/extreme and sometimes moderate droughts. In global terms, results do not support the assumption of a trend for progressive aggravation of drought occurrence during the last century, but rather suggest the existence of long duration cycles. publishersversion published

In this study, drought in Portugal was assessed using 74 time series of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with a 12-month timescale and 66 years length. A clustering analysis on the SPI Principal Components loadings was performed in order to find regions where SPI drought characteristics are similar. A Fourier analysis was then applied to the SPI time series considering one SPI value per year relative to every month. The analysis focused on the December SPI time series grouped in each of the three identified clusters to investigate the existence of cycles that could be related to the return periods of droughts. The most frequent significant cycles in each of the three clusters were identified and analysed for December and the other months. Results for December show that drought periodicities vary among the three clusters, pointing to a 6-year cycle across the country and a 9.4-year cycle in central and southern Portugal. Both these cycles likely show the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the occurrence and severity of droughts in Portugal. Relative to other months it was observed that cycles varied according to the common occurrence of precipitation: for the rainy months – November, December and January – cycles are similar to those for December; for the dry months – May to September – where the lack of precipitation masks the occurrence of drought, the dominant cycles are of short duration and cannot be related to the NAO or other large circulation indices to explain drought variability; for the transition months – February, March, April and October – 6-year and 3-year cycles were identified, the latter being more strongly apparent in central and southern Portugal. NAO influence is again identified relative to the 6-year cycles. The short cycles are apparently associated with positive SPI, thus with wetness, not drought. Overall, results confirm the importance of the NAO as a driving force for dry and wet periods.

In this work we evaluated methanolic extracts from different parts (leaves, seeds, fruit peel and pulp) of Chamaerops humilis L. for antioxidant activity and the ability to inhibit enzymes linked with neurodegenerative diseases: acetylcholinesterase (AChE), butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) and tyrosinase (TYR). The total content of phenolics, flavonoids and condensed tannins was also determined. The antioxidant and inhibitory activities of the extracts varied significantly according to the tissue. Seed extracts showed the greatest ability to scavenge DPPH (IC50 = 81.28 µg mL−1) and ABTS (1440.42 µmolTE $$ {{\text{g}}^{-1}}_{\text{extract}} $$ ) and to reduce iron (1142.46 µmolAAE $$ {{\text{g}}^{-1}}_{\text{extract}} $$ ). Seed and peel extracts strongly inhibited AChE (IC50 = 660.16 and 653.68 µg mL−1, respectively) and BChE (IC50 = 304.86 and 701.54 µg mL−1, respectively). The strongest inhibition of TYR was achieved by the seed and pulp extracts (268.97 and 279.99 µg mL−1, respectively). The highest levels of phenolics and condensed tannins were found in the seed extract (1564.88 µmolGAE $$ {{\text{g}}^{-1}}_{\text{extract}} $$ and 170.00 µmolcE $$ {{\text{g}}^{-1}}_{\text{extract}} $$ , respectively) whereas the leaf extract was the richest in flavonoids (139.88 µmolQE $$ {{\text{g}}^{-1}}_{\text{extract}} $$ ). HPLC-DAD analysis indicated the presence of flavonoids and phenolic acids (hydroxycinnamic acids) in the leaf and pulp extracts. A high correlation was found between the total condensed tannins content and the antioxidant and enzyme inhibition activities, suggesting these compounds are responsible for the biological activity of the extracts. Overall, our results indicate that C. humilis extracts may provide a new and alternative source of agents for medical and industrial applications.

In this work we evaluated methanolic extracts from different parts (leaves, seeds, fruit peel and pulp) of Chamaerops humilis L. for antioxidant activity and the ability to inhibit enzymes linked with neurodegenerative diseases: acetylcholinesterase (AChE), butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) and tyrosinase (TYR). The total content of phenolics, flavonoids and condensed tannins was also determined. The antioxidant and inhibitory activities of the extracts varied significantly according to the tissue. Seed extracts showed the greatest ability to scavenge DPPH (IC50 = 81.28 µg mL−1) and ABTS (1440.42 µmolTE \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ {{\text{g}}^{-1}}_{\text{extract}} $$\end{document}g-1extract) and to reduce iron (1142.46 µmolAAE \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ {{\text{g}}^{-1}}_{\text{extract}} $$\end{document}g-1extract). Seed and peel extracts strongly inhibited AChE (IC50 = 660.16 and 653.68 µg mL−1, respectively) and BChE (IC50 = 304.86 and 701.54 µg mL−1, respectively). The strongest inhibition of TYR was achieved by the seed and pulp extracts (268.97 and 279.99 µg mL−1, respectively). The highest levels of phenolics and condensed tannins were found in the seed extract (1564.88 µmolGAE \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ {{\text{g}}^{-1}}_{\text{extract}} $$\end{document}g-1extract and 170.00 µmolcE \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ {{\text{g}}^{-1}}_{\text{extract}} $$\end{document}g-1extract, respectively) whereas the leaf extract was the richest in flavonoids (139.88 µmolQE \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$ {{\text{g}}^{-1}}_{\text{extract}} $$\end{document}g-1extract). HPLC-DAD analysis indicated the presence of flavonoids and phenolic acids (hydroxycinnamic acids) in the leaf and pulp extracts. A high correlation was found between the total condensed tannins content and the antioxidant and enzyme inhibition activities, suggesting these compounds are responsible for the biological activity of the extracts. Overall, our results indicate that C. humilis extracts may provide a new and alternative source of agents for medical and industrial applications.

This work was partially supported by CMA/FCT/UNL, under the project PEst-OE/MAT/UI0297/2011. Given a fixed time span for collecting observations in a study comparing, for example, the pathologies of patients entering a hospital sequentially, it is advisable to consider the sample sizes of the ANOVA levels as random variables. Using this approach, more powerful tests are developed, leading to lower critical values. The approach is used to obtain the minimum duration of data collection to ensure a pre-fixed power for the F test. authorsversion published

The models in structured families correspond to the treatments of a fixed effects base design \(\pi \). Then the action of factors in \(\pi \), on the fixed effects parameters of the models, is studied. Analyzing such a families enables the study of the action of nesting factors on the effects and interactions of nested factors. When \(\pi \) has an orthogonal structure, the family of models is said to be orthogonal. The models in the family can have one, two or more strata. Models with more than one stratum are obtained through nesting of one stratum models. A general treatment of the case in which the base design has orthogonal structure is presented and a special emphasis is given to the families of prime basis factorials models. These last models are, as it is well known, widely used in fertilization trials.

The antioxidant and enzyme inhibitory properties of methanolic extracts from four aromatic plants used in traditional medicine and food [Calamintha nepeta (L.) Savi subsp. nepeta, Helichrysum italicum subsp. picardii Franco, Mentha spicata L. and Origanum vulgare subsp. virens (Hoffmanns. & Link) Bonnier & Layens] were evaluated. The extract from O. vulgare exhibited the strongest DPPH (IC50 of 4.65 +/- 0.12 mu g/ml) and ABTS (1479.56 +/- 12.29 mu mol(TE)/g(extract)) scavenging capacities, as well as the largest ferric reducing ability (1746.76 +/- 45.11 mu mol(AAE)/g(extract)). This extract also showed the highest total phenolic content (1597.20 +/- 24.10 mu mol(GAE)/g(extract)) and although HPLC-DAD analysis revealed rosmarinic acid as the main compound of the extract, other compounds seem to be involved in the antioxidant activity. Furthermore, the extract from H. italicum, which was found to be rich in caffeoylquinic and dicaffeoylquinic acids and in pinocembrin, showed the highest inhibitory potential against acetylcholinesterase, tyrosinase and alpha-glucosidase. Overall, the results obtained validate the usefulness of the studied plants as valuable sources of natural agents beneficial for human health. European Union; National Funds (FCT/MEC, Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia/Ministerio da Educacao e Ciencia) [UID/QUI/50006/2013]; Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme; European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) [NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000024]; FCT [SFRH/BPD/84112/2012, IF/01332/2014] info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

In this study, a statistical method is used aiming at finding if Alentejo, southern Portugal, could be considered a homogeneous region for drought management purposes. Time series of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) were obtained for 40 locations in the region using precipitation data for the period 1932–1999 (67 years). Contingency tables for the transitions between SPI drought classes were obtained for these time series. Log-linear models were fitted to these contingency tables to estimate the probabilities for drought class transitions. An approach of model clustering, where log-linear models were clustered using the asymptotic p-value of a likelihood ratio test (LRT) for the equality of parameters between pairs of models, was applied. Two types of LRT were performed: one considering all the parameters of the log-linear model of interest; another considering just some parameters of interest. Two p-value similarity matrices were computed to find similar models that could form clusters, however...

Given an orthogonal model $${{\bf \lambda}}=\sum_{i=1}^m{{{\bf X}}_i}{\boldsymbol{\alpha}}_i$$ an L model $${{\bf y}}={\bf L}\left(\sum_{i=1}^m{{{\bf X}}_i}{\boldsymbol{\alpha}}_i\right)+{\bf e}$$ is obtained, and the only restriction is the linear independency of the column vectors of matrix L. Special cases of the L models correspond to blockwise diagonal matrices L = D(L1, . . . , Lc). In multiple regression designs this matrix will be of the form $${\bf L}={\bf D}(\check{{\bf X}}_1,\ldots,\check{{\bf X}}_{c})$$ with \({\check{{\bf X}}_j, j=1,\ldots,c}\) the model matrices of the individual regressions, while the original model will have fixed effects. In this way, we overcome the usual restriction of requiring all regressions to have the same model matrix.

Chromosomal fragile sites (FSs) are loci where gaps and breaks may occur and are preferential integration targets for some viruses, for example, Hepatitis B, Epstein-Barr virus, HPV16, HPV18, and MLV vectors. However, the integration of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Giemsa bands and in FSs is not yet completely clear. This study aimed to assess the integration preferences of HIV in FSs and in Giemsa bands using anin silicostudy. HIV integration positions from Jurkat cells were used and two nonparametric tests were applied to compare HIV integration in dark versus light bands and in FS versus non-FS (NFSs). The results show that light bands are preferential targets for integration of HIV-1 in Jurkat cells and also that it integrates with equal intensity in FSs and in NFSs. The data indicates that HIV displays different preferences for FSs compared to other viruses. The aim was to develop and apply an approach to predict the conditions and constraints of HIV insertion in the human genome which seems to adequately complement empirical data.

This study aims at predicting the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) drought class transitions in Portugal, considering the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as one of the main large-scale atmospheric drivers of precipitation and drought fields across the Western European and Mediterranean areas. Log-linear modeling of the drought class transition probabilities on three temporal steps (dimensions) was used in an SPI time series of six- and 12-month time scales (SPI6 and SPI12) obtained from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation datasets with 1.0 degree of spatial resolution for 10 grid points over Portugal and a length of 112 years (1902–2014). The aim was to model two monthly transitions of SPI drought classes under the influence of the NAO index in its negative and positive phase in order to obtain improvements in the predictions relative to the modeling not including the NAO index. The ratios (odds ratio) between transitional probabilities and their confidence intervals were computed in order to estimate the probability of one drought class transition over another. The prediction results produced by the model with the forcing of NAO were compared with the results produced by the same model without that forcing, using skill scores computed for the entire time series length. Overall results have shown good prediction performance, ranging from 73% to 76% in the percentage of corrects (PC) and 56%–62% in the Heidke skill score (HSS) regarding the SPI6 application and ranging from 82% to 85% in the PC and 72%–76% in the HSS for the SPI12 application. The model with the NAO forcing led to improvements in predictions of about 1%–6% (PC) and 1%–8% (HSS), when applied to SPI6, but regarding SPI12 only seven of the locations presented slight improvements of about 0.4%–1.8% (PC) and 0.7%–3% (HSS).

A total period of 67 years of standardized precipitation index (SPI) data sets were divided into three periods of 22/23 years and a loglinear modeling approach has been used to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions among these three periods. The study was applied to several locations in Alentejo region, southern Portugal, and four drought severity classes were considered. The drought class transitions were computed for the three periods to form a 3-dimensional contingency table. The application of loglinear modeling to these data allowed the comparison of the three periods in terms of probabilities of transition between drought classes in order to detect a possible trend in time evolution of droughts which could be related to climate change. Results show that the drought behavior for the first and last periods is similar, both showing worse drought events than the second. If just the second and third periods were compared one could conclude that droughts were aggravating and easily this behavior could be attributed to climate change, supporting the common assumption that a trend for progressive aggravation of drought occurrence exists. Therefore, results are more consistent with the existence of a long-term natural periodicity; however, this hypothesis should be tested using longer time series.

Waste of wood treated with chromated copper arsenate (CCA) is expected to increase in volume over the next decades. Alternative disposal options to landfilling are becoming more attractive to study, especially those that promote re-use. The authors have studied and modeled the electrodialytic (ED) removal of Cu, Cr and As from CCA treated timber waste. The method uses a low-level direct current as the “cleaning agent”, combining the electrokinetic movement of ions in the matrix with the principle of electrodialysis. The technique was tested in eight experiments using a laboratory cell on sawdust of out-of-service CCA treated Pinus pinaster Ait. poles. The experiments differ because the sawdust was saturated with different assisting agents and different percentages of them. In order to select the best assisting agent in jointly removing the three metals and subsequently the best percentage of the selected assistant agent, a statistical analysis was made. First, three experiments were selected as being the best. Second, for the selected experiments, a polynomial model was found to describe the time evolution of the total concentrations of each metal in the electrolytes. Based on this modeling, a multi-treatment regression approach was further used to select the final range of experiments.

SFRH/BPD/99757/2014 This work was partially supported by the projects IMDROFLOOD-Improving Drought and Flood Early Warning, Forecasting and Mitigation using real-time hydroclimatic indicators (WaterJPI/0004/2014) and project UID/MAT/00297/2013 (Centro de Matematica e Aplicacoes), both funded by funded by Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, Portugal (FCT). Ana Russo thanks also FCT by the Post-Doc research grant SFRH/BPD/99757/2014. Drought class transitions over a sector of Eastern Europe were modeled using log-linear models. These drought class transitions were computed from time series of two widely used multiscale drought indices, the Standardized Preipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), with temporal scales of 6 and 12 months for 15 points selected from a grid over the Prut basin in Romania over a period of 112 years (1902-2014). The modeling also took into account the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), exploring the potential influence of this large-scale atmospheric driver on the climate of the Prut region. To assess the probability of transition among different drought classes we computed their odds and the corresponding confidence intervals. To evaluate the predictive capabilities of the modeling, skill scores were computed and used for comparison against benchmark models, namely using persistence forecasts or modeling without the influence of the NAO index. The main results indicate that the log-linear modeling performs consistently better than the persistence forecast, and the highest improvements obtained in the skill scores with the introduction of the NAO predictor in the modeling are obtained when modeling the extended winter months of the SPEI6 and SPI12. The improvements are however not impressive, ranging between 4.7 and 6.8 for the SPEI6 and between 4.1 and 10.1 for the SPI12, in terms of the Heidke skill score. publishersversion published

This work was partially supported by CIGMH (FCM/UNL), PEST-OE/SAU/UI0009/2011 and CMA/FCT/UNL, under the project PEst-OE/MAT/UI0297/2011. Integration of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) DNA into human genome is essential for HIV-induced disease. The human genome is organized into chromosomes and within these we can define the chromosomal fragile sites. Our aim is to contribute to help clarifying the integration sites preferences of HIV1 and HIV2 in fragile or non-fragile regions. Here we apply statistical techniques, namely non-parametric tests and analysis of variance for analyzing two sets of data of HIV1 and HIV2 integrations in the human genome. The results show that the integrations occur significantly with more intensity in the non-fragile regions of the human genome and that the HIV1 in particular has the major contribution to this fact. This study could have implications in human disease. publishersversion published

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Summary Loglinear modeling for three-dimensional contingency tables was used with data from 14 rainfall stations located in Alentejo and Algarve region, southern of Portugal, for short term prediction of drought severity classes. Loglinear models were fitted to drought class transitions derived from Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series computed in a 12-month time scale. Quasi-association loglinear models proved to be the most adequate in fitting all the 14 data series. Odds and respective confidence intervals were calculated in order to understand the drought evolution and to estimate the drought class transition probabilities. The validation of the predictions was performed for the 2004–2006 drought, particularly for periods when the drought was initiating and establishing, and when it was dissipating. Despite the contingency tables of drought class transitions present a strong diagonal tendency, results of three-dimensional loglinear modeling present good results when comparing predicted and observed drought classes with 1 and 2 months lead for those 14 sites. Only for a few cases predictions did not fully match the observed drought severity, mainly for 2-month lead and when the SPI values are near the limit of the severity class. It could be concluded that loglinear prediction of drought class transitions is a useful tool for short term drought warning.

SPI time series in a 12 month time scale from 6 sites in Alentejo and Algarve, in the south of Portugal, within the period from October 1896 to September 2005, were divided into three or four periods depending on the data set length and a Loglinear modeling approach has been used to investigate differences relative to drought class transitions among these periods. Four drought severity classes were considered. The drought class transitions were computed for the different periods to form a 3-dimensional contingency table. The application of Loglinear modeling to these data allowed the comparison of the periods in terms of probabilities of transition between drought classes in order to detect a possible trend in time evolution of droughts which could be related to climate change

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Monitorisation of PB haematopoietic cell count has been used as a reliable predictor of peripheral blood progenitor cell (PBPC) yields in healthy donors and patients following 5 day G-CSF mobilization. Routinely this evaluationn is performed by CD34+ cell count using flow cytometry and more recently by haematopoietic progenitor cell (HPC) count in a hematologic cell analyser. The aim of the present ongoing study is the comparison of PB CD34+ cell counts vs HPC in predicting the apheresis yield both for adult healthy donors and patients. From January to the end of July 2007, 21 healthy donors and 30 patients with hematologic malignancies (NHL=16, MM=11, HD=3) underwent G-CSF mobilization. On the 5th day of mobilization WBC and HPC counts were assessed by the Sysmex XE-2100 analyser in EDTA PB samples. CD34+ cell enumeration was performed in the same samples by standard flow cytometric assay. The healthy donors showed a good PB mobilization with a median of 82 CD34+cells/μl (range 23–193) and 161 HPC/μl (22–548). The majority of donors collected in one apheresis sufficient cells for the allogeneic transplant (>4x106 CD34+/kg bw receptor). The total amount of cells collected per kg bw donor was 8.2x106 CD34+/kg and 21.7 x106 HPC/Kg. Our data showed that HPC counts were significantly higher than CD34+ counts (2.0 fold for PB and 2.6 fold for PBPC). In relation to the patient group they showed a wide variation of PB CD34+ cells/μl (median 9, range 2–177) as well as HPC/μl (median 42, range 0–376). Patients underwent 1 to 3 apheresis to achieve >2x106 CD34+/kg. The total amount of cells collected was 2.1x106 CD34+/kg (range 0.2 – 13.6) and 5.0 x106HPC/kg (range 0.3 – 50.1). As shown for healthy donors, patient HPC counts were significantly higher than CD34+ counts (4.6 fold for PB and 2.4 fold for PBPC). Our results showed that for both groups of individuals PB HPC counts correlated with CD34+ cell counts and these numbers predicted the PBPC yield. Thus, we set a threshold on 5th day PB counts of >10 CD34+ cells/μl or >20 HPC/μl and analysed the PBPC collections. The majority of donors (17/21) presented in the PB >10 CD34+ cells/μl and >20 HPC/μl, whereas in the patient group the majority (18/31) had >20 PB HPC/μl and only 13/31 showed >10 PBCD34+ cells/μl. With PB counts above the threshold levels both donors and patients achieved the minimum requirement for hematopoietic transplant. Patients with PB counts of 2x106 CD34+ cells/kg in a total of 3 apheresis. The threshold on PB counts of >10 CD34+ cells/μl or >20 HPC/μl established in the current study is similar to those reported by other groups. In summary, HPC counts can be used to decide the timing of PBPC collection, as it takes only a few minutes to be executed. At the present time HPC counts can not replace CD34+ cell enumeration, as it is not yet determined the HPC dose equivalent to the current established CD34+ cell dose necessary for transplantation. Furthermore, it remains to be determine the role of the HPC content of the graft may be important in the haematopoietic recovery of patients.