Search

Theory suggests that eligible voters should be more likely to cast ballots when election margins are close. Empirical evidence, however, is mixed. Operational definitions of key concepts such as turnout and election closeness are often inconsistent and limited in application to two-party systems. This paper provides a more generalized test of the turnout-competition link in electoral districts. Data are 1993 and 1997 constituency-level election results for the Canadian House of Commons. Canada provides an excellent case for comparison because it has single-member districts, plurality elections, both national and regional parties, and multiparty competition throughout the nation. Several alternative measures for 'turnout' and 'closeness' are evaluated in the context of multiparty elections. A new index of competitiveness is developed. Multicandidate measures of closeness are related to higher levels of voter participation in Canadian federal elections.

The female voter's influence in the 1997 UK elections is discussed. Elected women members of Parliament increased to 120 in 1997 from 60 in 1992.

Although the operation of the UK's electoral system directly benefited less voters in the 1997 general election than in the 1992 general election, the public has expressed deep satisfaction with the Labor Party landslide. Only 61% of 1997 voters either backed the winning party nationwide, elected their local parliamentary candidate of choice, or saw their party dominate in their local region. In 1992, 73% of voters enjoyed at least one of these electoral benefits. Electoral system reforms, pledged by the Labor Party and the Liberal Democrats, are still likely to occur eventually, despite Labor's resounding victory.

The Labor Party government of Tony Blair is enjoying high levels of confidence and public support following its resounding win in the 1997 UK general elections. The lopsided nature of the victory, and the serious disarray of the Conservative opposition, mean that despite the inevitablity of a mid-term drop in popularity, Labor and Blair can reasonably expect to retain power after the next general election probable in 2002. Blair and his party will, however, confront great difficulties in dealing with the issues of Europe, the election of a Scottish Parliament and general electoral system reforms.

Voter turnout in the 1997 UK general election was 71.6%, the lowest since World War II. There was a significant decline in turnout in all regions and among all the political parties, perhaps indicating either a public belief that the outcome was assured, or popular boredom with the long campaign and intensive media coverage. Surprisingly, voter turnout was lowest in strong Labor constituencies, especially those in the inner cities. One of the most disturbing aspects of the low turnout is that it may reflect long-term political disaffection among such groups as minorities, the young and the poor.

The Scottish results of the May 1, 1997 UK general elections were a total rout for the Conservative Party, which lost all of its parliamentary seats in Scotland. The Scottish electorate exhibited a substantial amount of tactical voting to ensure Conservative defeat. The Labor Party was the major beneficiary of the voting shift, but the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party also gained seats. The Labor Party responded to its victory by rapidly passing through the House of Commons a bill organizing a referendum in Scotland on the establishment of a Scottish parliament with possible taxing power.

Racial politics apparently played a relatively limited role in the UK general elections of May 1, 1997. However, the degree to which all three major parties attempted to woo ethnic voters was striking. The Conservative Party, especially, expended great effort to attract Asian voters, perhaps looking ahead to future elections in 2002 and 2007. The other remarkable race-related aspect of the 1997 elections was the parties' almost total lack of interest in the potentially volatile and divisive issues of race relations and immigration. Four new minority candidates, all from Labor, won parliamentary seats.

Viewing the success of women candidates in the 1997 UK general elections as a major breakthrough for their gender may be premature, because a large number of the record 120 women elected won marginal seats in a massive Labor Party majority. If Labor's fortunes change in future elections, many of these women could be defeated. Labor Party candidate selection policies, which were more equitable toward women, contributed to the election of 102 women from the party. Preliminary evidence shows that women lawmakers, as a group, are distinctly more likely to support women's issues than are their male colleagues.

UK local elections were held simultaneously with a general election for only the second time in history, on May 1, 1997. The combined election results reflected a surprising amount of split-ticket voting. Liberal Democrats (LDs), especially, enjoyed greater success winning seats at the local level than at the national. This greater visibility on the local level may make them the popular alternative party when public support for the Labor national government inevitably wanes. In this way, the LDs could seriously hinder the recovery of the Conservative Party, which presently enjoys little local support.

Results of the 1997 UK general elections in Northern Ireland reflect a weakening of the staunchly unionist political parties and a strengthening of the nationalist parties, such as Sinn Fein. The decline of Protestant unionists that refuse to share power with the Catholic nationalists will probably continue, as will the rise in Catholic population fueling the nationalist surge. The Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, a unionist party supported by both Protestants and Catholics, will have an important opportunity to serve as power broker, by attracting moderate voters from both camps.

The UK Conservative Party suffered a devastating defeat in the country's May 1, 1997 general elections despite a growing, healthy economy. The British public lost confidence in the Conservatives' ability to manage the economy on Sep 16, 1992, when the UK was ejected from the European Monetary Union. The Conservatives never recovered this public support, partially because television news coverage of the recovering economy was insufficiently positive. In addition, favorable treatment of Labor Party economic policies, and highly visible Conservative Party divisions kept public confidence in the government depressed.

Regional differences in voting played a significant role in the UK's May 1, 1997 general elections. The regional nature of the Labor Party vote was characteristically strong, while the regionalism typical of the Conservative Party vote diminished. The Liberal Democrats managed to more than double their parliamentary seats by encroaching upon Conservative territory in the South and South West of England. They accomplished this hefty increase in seats by both targeting marginal Conservative districts and encouraging tactical voting, mostly by Labor adherents whose candidates had little chance of winning.

Six of the 10 national daily newspapers in the UK endorsed the Labor Party during the general election campaign of 1997, making it the first time ever that the party enjoyed the electoral backing of a majority of the press. This shift probably does not signal long-term press support of Labor. It is likely that in the future the press will either resume its Conservative support or be increasingly independent in political endorsements. A more independent perspective would reflect both the increased volatility of the UK electorate and the trend to move away from traditional, monolithic editorial policies.

The data from two exit polls that interviewed UK voters during the country's May 1, 1997 general elections suggests that the Conservative Party's defeat resulted from both the electorate's active rejection of its policies and leadership, and from the substantial popularity of Tony Blair and his new Labor Party. Voters perceived the Conservatives' economic policy as flawed, their leadership as weak and their party as divided. They viewed Tony Blair as a strong, appealing leader, and his Labor Party as competent and united. The UK's recovering economy actually mitigated the potential severity of the Conservative defeat.

UK television coverage of the country's 1997 general election campaign was more extensive and substantial than in most other countries, but still failed to sufficiently inform its viewers about the issues of the campaign. This failure resulted largely from the balanced coverage restrictions placed upon broadcasters by the Representation of the People Act of 1983. News programs were forced to spend too much of their time covering the negative political attacks and counterattacks continually mounted by all the major parties. This led to an emphasis upon negative news that hindered substantive discussion.

The UK general election of May 1, 1997, in which the Labor Party won one of the most sweeping victories in British electoral history, apparently signals a fundamental reorganization of UK politics. The Conservative Party suffered its most crushing defeat in history, and its grass roots organization has been crippled by poor showings in numerous local elections. The overall 1997 election result was unsurprising, because Conservatives' public support plummeted and never recovered after the UK withdrew from the European Monetary Union on Sep 16, 1992. The Labor Party directly benefited from this popular shift.

The UK Liberal Democrats (LDs) experienced success in the May 1, 1997 general parliamentary elections mainly because they were supported by a large number of disgruntled Conservative voters. The durability of the party's success will depend upon the depth and endurance of that popular desertion of the Conservative Party. During the 1997 election campaign, the LDs targeted their efforts toward seats they felt they could win, and sought to attract those Conservative and Labor party adherents who would be willing to cast tactical votes for the LDs to deprive their major rival of the seat.

The 1997 parliamentary elections were viewed as a supreme test of the reliability of UK political polling, because all the country's major polling organizations had erred significantly in their 1992 electoral forecasts. These 1992 mistakes seriously damaged the pollsters' reputation and encouraged all to adopt substantial changes in their polling methods during the years prior to the 1997 election. The pollsters' final forecasts during the 1997 campaign, while much more accurate than those of 1992, were still unreliable enough to have been grossly misleading in a less lopsided election.

The UK Conservative Party essentially lost the 1997 election on Sep 16, 1992, when the UK withdrew from the European Monetary Union and Conservative popular support plummeted. The public almost immediately lost confidence in the party's ability to manage the economy, rejected John Major's leadership and shifted their political allegiances to Labor. Conservatives were unable to regain that lost support over the ensuing five years, making a Labor victory on May 1, 1997 inevitable. The Conservatives' inept management of both their long-term and short-term election campaigns turned the defeat into a rout.

The UK Labor Party's 1997 election campaign actually began soon after the party's unexpected defeat in 1992. Leader Tony Blair set out to create an essentially new party, based less on trade union support and appealing to a coalition of middle class and working class voters. Blair shifted Labor policies toward the center, won greater authority for the party's leadership and used communications technology to take Labor's new message directly to voters. Labor's actual 1997 campaign was professional, disciplined and broadly appealing, successfully continuing Blair's changes of the previous five years.

Details of the study are presented that was conducted to analyze the influence of party election broadcasts (PEBs) on the voters, in the 1997 British General Election. According to the results, the viewing of the PEB does create some liking for the candidate in the viewer than the non-viewer.

In the 1997 municipal election, Mel Lastman defeated Barbara Hall to become the first mayor of the new megacity of Toronto. The two candidates had distinctly different styles and platforms, and each appealed to a particular demographic. Multiple regression techniques are used to determine the impact of voter turnout, incumbency and various socio-economic factors on Lastman's and Hall's success rates across Toronto's 28 wards. Turnout, incumbency, the relative size of the immigrant population and the tenancy rate in each ward are found to be significant determinants of their respective vote shares. Some evidence is found to suggest that education level was also a factor.