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The authors examine the sensitivity of the Battisti coupled atmosphere-ocean model - considered as a forecast model for the E1 Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - to perturbations in the sea surface temperature (SST) field applied at the beginning of a model integration. The spatial structures of the fastest growing SST perturbations are determined by singular vector analysis of an approximation to the propagator for the linearized system. Perturbation growth about the following four reference trajectories is considered: (i) the annual cycle, (ii) a freely evolving model ENSO cycle with an annual cycle in the basic state, (iii) the annual mean basic state, and (iv) a freely evolving model ENSO cycle with an annual mean basic state. Singular vectors with optimal growth over periods of 3, 6, and 9 months are computed. The magnitude of maximum perturbation growth is highly dependent on both the phase of the seasonal cycle and the phase of the ENSO cycle at which the perturbation is applied and on the duration over which perturbations are allowed to evolve. However, the spatial structure of the optimal perturbation is remarkably insensitive to these factors. The structure of the optimal perturbation consists of an east-west dipole spanning the entire tropical Pacific basin superimposed on a north-south dipole in the eastern tropical Pacific. A simple physical interpretation for the optimal pattern is provided. In most cases investigated, there is only one structure that exhibits growth. Maximum perturbation growth takes place for integrations that include the period June-August, and the minimum growth for integrations that include the period January-April. Maxima in potential growth also occur for forecasts of ENSO onset and decay, while minima occur for forecasts initialized during the beginning of a warm event, after the transition from a warm to a cold event, and continuing through the cold event. The physical processes responsible for the large variation in the amplitude of the optimal perturbation growth are identified. The implications of these results for the predictability of short-term climate in the tropical Pacific are discussed.

In climate science, an anomaly is the deviation of a quantity from its annual cycle. There are many ways to define annual cycle. Traditionally, this annual cycle is taken to be an exact repeat of itself year after year. This stationary annual cycle may not reflect well the intrinsic nonlinearity of the climate system, especially under external forcing. In this paper, we re-examine the reference frame for anomalies by re-examining the annual cycle. We propose an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies, the modulated annual cycle (MAC) that allows the annual cycle to change from year to year, for defining anomalies. In order for this alternative reference frame to be useful, we need to be able to define the instantaneous annual cycle: we therefore also introduce a new method to extract the MAC from climatic data. In the presence of a MAC, modulated in both amplitude and frequency, we can then define an alternative version of an anomaly, this time with respect to the instantaneous MAC rather than a permanent and unchanging AC. Based on this alternative definition of anomalies, we re-examine some familiar physical processes: in particular SST re-emergence and ENSO phase locking to the annual cycle. We find that the re-emergence mechanism may be alternatively interpreted as an explanation of the change of the annual cycle instead of an explanation of the interannual to interdecadal persistence of SST anomalies. We also find that the ENSO phase locking can largely be attributed to the residual annual cycle (the difference of the MAC and the corresponding traditional annual cycle) contained in the traditional anomaly, and, therefore, can be alternatively interpreted as a part of the annual cycle phase locked to the annual cycle itself. In addition to the examples of reinterpretation of physics of well known climate phenomena, we also present an example of the implications of using a MAC against which to define anomalies. We show that using MAC as a reference framework for anomaly can bypass the difficulty brought by concepts such as “decadal variability of summer (or winter) climate” for understanding the low-frequency variability of the climate system. The concept of an amplitude and frequency modulated annual cycle, a method to extract it, and its implications for the interpretation of physical processes, all may contribute potentially to a more consistent and fruitful way of examining past and future climate variability and change.

An atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab ocean model is used to investigate how temperature and precipitation over South America and Africa affect the annual cycle of the Atlantic ITCZ. The main conclusion of this study is that variations in precipitation and temperature forced by the annual cycle of insolation over the continents are as important as variations in insolation over the ocean and in ocean heat transport convergence in forcing the annual march of the Atlantic ITCZ observed in the control simulation. The processes involved are as follows. The intensity of precipitation over land affects the stability of the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and thus modulates the intensity of deep convection and convergence in the ITCZ. Both the imposed changes in land precipitation and the subsequent changes in the strength of the ITCZ drive surface wind anomalies, thereby changing the meridional gradient of SST in proximity of the basic-state ITCZ. Finally, atmosphere–ocean feedbacks cause the ITCZ to be displaced meridionally. Seasonal changes in surface temperature in the Sahara also have a strong influence on the position of the Atlantic ITCZ. Cold wintertime temperatures produce high surface pressure anomalies over Africa and into the tropical North Atlantic and drive stronger trade winds, which cool the North Atlantic by evaporation. The coupled interactions between the SST, the wind, and the ITCZ intensify the anomalies in the equatorial region, causing the southward displacement of the ITCZ in boreal spring.

A set of AGCM experiments is used to study the annual cycle of precipitation in the region surrounding the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The experiments are designed to reveal the relative importance of insolation over land and the (uncoupled) SST on the annual cycle of precipitation over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, Africa, and the tropical Americas. SST variations impact the position of the maritime ITCZ by forcing the hydrostatic adjustment of the atmospheric boundary layer and changes in surface pressure and low-level convergence. The condensation heating released in the ITCZ contributes substantially to the surface circulation and the maintenance of the SST-induced ITCZ anomalies. The remote influence of SST is felt in equatorial coastal areas and the Sahel. The circulation driven by condensation heating in the maritime ITCZ extends to the coastal regions, thus communicating the SST signal onshore. Conversely, the Sahel responds to variations in SST through boundary layer processes that do not involve the maritime ITCZ. The atmospheric response to changes in subtropical SST is advected inland and forces changes in sea level pressure and low-level convergence across a large part of tropical Africa. The impact of local insolation on continental precipitation can be explained by balancing net energy input at the top of the atmospheric column with the export of energy by the divergent circulation that accompanies convection. Increased insolation reduces the stability of the atmosphere in the main continental convection centers, but not in monsoon regions. Insolation over land impacts the intensity of the maritime ITCZ via its influence on precipitation in Africa and South America. Reduced land precipitation induces the cooling of the Atlantic upper troposphere and the enhancement of convective available potential energy in the maritime ITCZ.

Restoring boundary conditions, wherein the temperature and salinity are restored to surface target fields of temperature and salinity, are traditionally used for studies of the ocean circulation in ocean general circulation models. The canonical problem with these boundary conditions is that, when the target fields are chosen as the observed fields, accurate simulation of the surface fields of temperature and salinity would imply that the surface fluxes and therefore the ocean heat transports approach zero, a clearly unrealistic situation. It is clear that the target fields cannot be chosen as the observed fields. A simple but effective method of modifying conventional restoring boundary conditions is introduced, designed to keep the calculated values of surface temperature and salinity as close to observations as possible. The technique involves calculating the optimal target fields in the restoring boundary conditions by an iterative procedure. The method accounts for oceanic processes, such as advection and eddy mixing in the derivation of the new boundary conditions. A reduced version of this method is introduced that produces comparable results but offers greater simplicity in implementation. The simplicity of the method is particularly attractive in idealized studies, which often employ restoring surface boundary conditions. The success of the new method is, however, limited by several factors that cannot be easily compensated by the adjustment of the target profiles. These factors include inaccurate model dynamics, errors in the observations, and the too-simplified form of restoring surface boundary conditions themselves. The application of the method in this study with a coarse-resolution model leads to considerable improvements of the simulation of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS). Both amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in SST greatly improve. The resulting magnitudes of surface heat and freshwater fluxes increase on average, and the meridional heat transport gets stronger. However, the fluxes in some regions remain unrealistic, notably the too-strong freshwater forcing of the western boundary currents in the Northern Hemisphere. Southern Ocean cooling and freshening are also likely to be too strong. The subsurface values of temperature improve greatly, proving that a large part of errors in the subsurface temperature distribution in our model can be corrected by reducing errors at the surface. In contrast, the reduction of errors in surface salinity fails to improve uniformly the simulated subsurface salinity values.

The authors identify and describe the important dynamical mechanisms that explain the significant sensitivity of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to the parameterization of heat and salt transports by mesoscale eddies in numerical models. In particular, the effects of the Gent–McWilliams (GM) scheme, which has a strong flattening effect on isopycnals, and a simple horizontal diffusion scheme are considered and compared. Two control runs, one with each scheme, exhibit very different circulations and density structures. To analyze the dynamical reasons for the differences between the control runs, a number of numerical experiments with regionally varying diffusion coefficients are carried out, emphasizing the effects of different schemes in key regions. The main effect of eddies in the Southern Ocean in nature is to shoal the subsurface isopycnal surfaces, thus increasing the density of the northward inflow of relatively dense intermediate waters into the Atlantic—as will be seen, this is more...

The annual cycle over land can be thought of as being forced locally by the direct action of the sun and remotely by circulations forced by regions of persistent precipitation organized primarily by SST and, secondarily, by land. This study separates these two sources of annual variability in order to indicate where and when the remote effects are important. Two main sets of AGCM experiments were performed: one with fixed SST boundary conditions and seasonally varying insolation, another with fixed insolation and seasonally varying SST. For each experiment, the evolution of the annual cycle is presented as the differences from the reference month of March. The comparison of other months to March in the fixed-SST runs separates out the direct response of the land–atmosphere system to the annual insolation changes overhead. Similarly, the same comparison in the annual cycle of the fixed-insolation runs reveals the response of the land–atmosphere system to changes in SST. Over most of the domain, in...

In this paper, the atmospheric circulations on an equatorial beta plane in response to steady tropical heating are investigated by analytically solving a set of linear equations. Special emphasis is placed on the horizontal structure of forced response under the different combinations of momentum damping and thermal damping, as well as the effect of the zonal domain on the forced responses. Two zonal domains are considered: a zonally cyclic domain and a zonally unbounded domain. The linear model is decomposed in terms of the vertical eigenfunctions in a vertically semi-infinite domain. A new feature of the solution is the existence of a continuous spectrum corresponding to energy propagation out the top of the troposphere. The resulting shallow-water equations are then solved using a method similar to that of Gill. Since the zonal decay scale is proportional to the inverse of the square root of the product of the Rayleigh friction rate and the Newtonian cooling rate, the solutions in a zonally un...

An empirically derived linear dynamical model is constructed using the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set enhanced sea surface temperature data in the tropical Pacific during the period 1956-95. Annual variation in the Markov model is sought using various tests. A comparison of Nino-3.4 forecast skill using a seasonally varying Markov model to forecast skill in which the seasonal transition matrices are applied during opposite times of the year from which they were derived is made. As a result, it is determined that the seasonal transition matrices are probably not interchangeable, indicating that the Markov model is not annually constant. Stochastic forcing, which has been hypothesized to exhibit seasonality, is therefore not the sole source of the annual variation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics and the phase locking of ENSO events to peak during November.

In this paper, the three-dimensional structure of the thermally forced atmosphere on an equatorial b plane is investigated. Special emphasis is placed on the relations between the vertical structure of heating and the horizontal structure of the forced response. By solving the vertical eigenvalue‐eigenfunction problem in a vertically semi-infinite domain, the authors obtain a complete set of vertical eigenfunctions that includes a single barotropic (external) mode and a continuous spectrum of baroclinic (internal) modes. These eigenfunctions are used to decompose vertical heating profiles for two types of tropical heating: 1) deep heating representing the convective plume (CP) heating and 2) shallow heating representing mature cloud (MC) cluster heating. By examining the spectral energy density of the heating profile, the contributions of each vertical mode (spectral interval) to the overall structure are explored for each case, and the difference between the responses to these two profiles of heating is discussed. A dry spectral primitive equation model of the atmosphere is employed to verify the analytical results. The results from both the analytical approach and the numerical simulations are consistent in showing that the vertical structure of the heating is fundamental to the structure of the forced response. The CP is deep relative to the MC. Thus, the CP projects onto the vertical eigenfunctions of relatively larger equivalent depth more so than does the MC. As a result, the CP-forced signals propagate away from the heat source much faster than those forced by the MC. Hence, when the atmosphere is subjected to the same linear dampings (Rayleigh friction and Newtonain cooling), the spatial (mainly in the horizontal) decay rate of the CP-forced signals is significantly smaller than that of the MC-forced signals, and the CP-forced signals extend farther. To what extent a shallow-water system of a specified vertical mode (e.g., the Gill model) can approximate the three-dimensional response is also examined. Results show that the effective gravity wave speed of the multimode system varies greatly with location. Hence, it is extremely difficult to select a globally suitable equivalent depth so that a one-mode shallow-water system can approximate the spatially three-dimensional structure of the response to a given heating.

A series of studies are performed to examine the response of the tropical atmosphere to a prescribed steady, large-scale, elevated heat source (i.e., a region of persistent precipitation). Special emphasis is placed on the surface wind response in two idealized cases in which dissipation is achieved exclusively by Rayleigh friction or by Newtonian cooling. Starting from the linearized equations on an equatorial beta plane, theoretical arguments are presented that suggest there are qualitative differences in the solutions of these two models. A dry spectral primitive equation model of the atmosphere is employed and confirms the results obtained from the analytical studies. The results from both the analytical study and the numerical simulations are consistent in showing that Rayleigh friction and Newtonian cooling play totally different roles in the tropical atmosphere. Newtonian cooling homogenizes the atmospheric motion in the vertical direction, and a strong, vertically uniform wind is found below the base of the heat source. When Rayleigh friction dominates, the circulation driven by the heat source is confined to the layer where the heat source is located. It is also shown that a strong Hadley circulation is associated with reasonable strong Rayleigh friction, but not with Newtonian cooling alone. Finally, the numerical solution is found for the case where Newtonian cooling acts uniformly in the vertical and Rayleigh friction is included in the lower atmosphere to mimic crudely the dissipation of momentum in the boundary layer. The introduction of the simple boundary layer dramatically reduces the surface circulation that was supported in the Newtonian cooling alone case. Together these results suggest a significant surface circulation is unlikely to be driven by an elevated heat source if it resides above the top of the boundary layer.

Empirical dynamical modeling (EDM) is employed to determine if ENSO forecasting skill using monthly mean SST data can be enhanced by including subsurface temperature anomaly data. The Nino 3.4 index is forecast first using an EDM constructed from the principal component time series corresponding to EOFs of SST anomaly maps of the central and eastern tropical Pacific (328N-328S, 1208E-708W) for the period 1965- 93. Cross validation is applied to minimize the artificial skill of the forecasts, which are made over the same 29-yr period. The forecasting is then repeated with the inclusion of principal components of heat content of the upper 300 m over the northern tropical Pacific (308N-08, 1208E-728W). The forecast skill using SST alone and SST plus subsurface temperature is compared for lead times ranging between 3 and 12 months. The EDM, which includes the subsurface information, forecasts with greater skill at all lead times; particularly important is the second principal component of the heat content, which appears to contribute information on the transition phase between warm and cold ENSO events. The apparent improvement by including subsurface information, although robust, does not appear to be statistically significant. However, the temporal and spatial coverage of the subsurface data is limited, so this study probably underestimates the usefulness of including subsurface temperature data in efforts to predict ENSO. Finally, cross-validated forecasts using a Markov model that includes an annual cycle are shown to be less skillful than forecasts using a seasonally invariant Markov model. The reason for this appears to be that dividing the data yields an insufficient database to derive an accurate Markov model.

The authors present a new model of the tropical surface circulation, forced by changes in sensible heat and evaporative flux anomalies that are associated with prescribed sea surface temperature anomalies. The model is similar to the Lindzen and Nigam (LN) boundary layer model, also driven by the above flux anomalies; but here, since the boundary layer is assumed well mixed and capped by an inversion, the model reduces to a twolayer, reduced-gravity system. Furthermore, the rate of exchange of mass across the boundary layer‐free atmosphere interface is dependent on the moisture budget in the boundary layer. When moist convection is diagnosed to occur, detrainment operates on the timescale associated with the life cycle of deep convection, approximately eight hours. Otherwise, the detrainment is assumed to be associated with the mixing out of the stable tropical boundary layer, which has a timescale of about one day. The model provides a diagnostic estimate of the anomalies in precipitation. However, it is assumed that the latent heat is released above the boundary layer, and it drives a circulation that does not impact the boundary layer. The authors discuss the derivations of the Gill‐Zebiak (GZ) and Lindzen‐Nigam models and highlight some apparent inconsistencies between their derivation and the values of several of the parameters that are required for these models to achieve realistic solutions for the circulations. Then, the new reduced-gravity boundary model equations are rewritten in the form of the GZ and LN models. Using realistic values for the parameters in the new model geometry, it is shown that the constants combine in the rewritten equations to produce the physically doubtful constants in the GZ and LN models, hence, the reason for the apparent success of these models.

The vertical structure of the low-level atmospheric response to an elevated large-scale, low-frequency heat source in the Tropics is explored using linear tidal theory on an equatorial beta plane. Through the calculation of the projection of a large-scale, low-frequency thermal source onto the meridional eigenfunctions, the contributions from a set of discrete meridional eigenfunctions with positive equivalent depths, and a continuous spectrum of meridional eigenfunctions with negative equivalent depth, are examined. The positive equivalent depth eigenfunctions have been discussed in some literature while the continuous spectrum of the negative equivalent depth eigenfunctions is new. The authors find that, at lower frequencies, the forced response is mainly supported by those continuous modes for which the absolute values of the negative equivalent depths are neither very small nor very large. The implications of these results for thermally driven surface winds are discussed and summarized by Eqs...

Improved observations in the tropical Pacific during the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program have served to corroborate preexisting notions concerning the seasonally dependent relationships between sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, wind stress, rainfall, upper tropospheric circulation, and ocean thermal structure anomalies in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. However, the paradigm of a quasiperiodic “ENSO cycle,” phase locked with the annual march, does not capture the complexity of the evolution of the anomalies. The inadequacy of this model was particularly apparent during the second half of TOGA when the variability was highly aperiodic. Also, a single modal structure or empirical orthogonal function does not appear to be capable of representing the range of spatial patterns of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific. These results suggest the need for a more inclusive phenomenological description of ENSO. Data collected during TOGA serve to confirm the influence of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies upon rainfall in northeast Brazil.

Oceanic interdecadal thermohaline oscillations are investigated with a coarse-resolution version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Modular Ocean Model. The geometry of the model is a box with a depth of 5000 m and a longitudinal width of 60°, spanning latitudes from 14.5° to 66.5°N. The model ocean is forced by a zonal wind stress, a heat flux parameterized by restoring the surface temperature toward a reference value, and a specified surface freshwater flux. Zonal wind stress, reference temperature, and freshwater flux are all longitudinally uniform, time-independent, and vary meridionally. It is shown that the ocean model can be in a state of interdecadal oscillations, and a physical mechanism is explained. For these oscillatory solutions, both surface mean heat flux and basin mean kinetic energy vary with interdecadal periods. Temperature and salinity budget analyses reveal that these oscillations depend primarily on advective and convective processes. Horizontal advective heat tran...

A 21/2-layer ocean model is developed to investigate the role of the first two baroclinic modes in determining the interannual variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) associated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Rather than simply adding an additional mode to the ocean component of the Zebiak–Cane coupled atmosphere–ocean model, it proved necessary to completely rethink all parts of the model. This allowed the external parameters to be specified more realistically. For example, the drag coefficient used in calculating the surface wind stress in the model is now consistent with that empirically derived, and the temperature of the water entrained in the surface layer that affects SST is now more carefully parameterized. When forced by observed wind stress anomalies for 1961–93, the ocean model reproduces the interannual variations of SST satisfactorily. The quantitative discrepancies between the model hindcast and observed SST anomalies are limited to an excessive coo...

Throughout the 1960's and 1970's, oceanographers referred to the large-scale warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific as El Nino. This anomalous warming was later shown to be associated with anomalies in the upper ocean thermal structure throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean. At about the same time, scientists realized that the Southern Oscillation was intimately related to the large-scale changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In brief, the Southern Oscillation represents the variability in the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation in the tropics, and is manifest as a displacement of the convection over the maritime continent, and is associated with large-scale anomalies in the surface wind and sea level pressure throughout the tropical Pacific (and into the Indian Ocean) basin.

The implicit vertical diffusion (IVD) convective adjustment scheme in common use in ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) could have large residual static gravitational instability at each time step. An iterative and explicit scheme is devised, based on similar physical considerations as the ones for the IVD scheme. It guarantees a complete removal of static instability in a vertical water column and is more efficient than the IVD scheme in overall spinup of the model. The two convective schemes are compared in an ocean model that is in a state of interdecadal limit cycles. While the model solution with either of these two schemes is characterized by interdecadal oscillations, the variability is different in each scheme. The primary oscillation has a period of about 11 years, but the basin mean kinetic energy shows large differences. The 11-year cycle is modulated by a 33-year oscillation with the IVD scheme, while it is modulated by a 22-year cycle with the complete scheme. The amplitude of t...

The effect of nonlinearities on a previously investigated coupled atmosphere–ocean basin mode is examined. The nonlinearity in the thermodynamic equation for sea surface temperature arises mainly from the dependence of subsurface temperature on the thermocline depth anomaly in the parameterization of entrainment into the mixed layer. This nonlinearity ultimately suppresses the linear growth of the unstable mode and equilibrates it at a finite amplitude. Because this nonlinearity acts differently for warm and cold states, the warm states are enhanced at finite amplitude. It is found that multiple equilibrium states appear as the coupling coefficient increases and as the reflection coefficient of the oceanic Rossby mode at the western boundary decreases. The finite-amplitude warm equilibrium state turns out to be stable, but the finite-amplitude cold state is unstable. The explicit inclusion of the dependence of the coupling strength on the warm and cold sea surface temperature anomalies modulates ...

A series of numerical experiments is conducted with a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model and a two-dimensional counterpart both designed for efficient integration over diffusive (millennial) time scales. With strong steady salinity fluxes (salting at low latitudes and freshening at high), basin mean temperature and several other diagnostics show a series of self-sustaining oscillations. The oscillations termed deep decoupling oscillations, exhibit halocline catastrophes at regular intervals, followed by warming deep decoupled phases (when the deep overturning is weak), cooling flushes, and in the lower range of salinity forcing, a coupled phase when the deep ocean advective/diffusive heat balance is almost, but not quite, met. It is suggested that oscillations arise when a steady overturning circulation encounters a contradiction: the poleward salt and heat transport needed to maintain convection in the polar ocean requires more overturning than is consistent with the reduced therm...

This chapter provides an observational survey of the main elements of the tropical atmosphere and ocean needed in the sequel. In particular, the major circulation features in the atmosphere and ocean important for understanding ENSO: SST, SLP, surface winds, surface heat fluxes, the East–West overturning circulation in the Pacific, the Hadley circulation and the depth of the equatorial thermocline. Because the surface plays such a crucial role in atmosphere–ocean interactions, special emphasis will be placed on the fluxes at the surface, in particular the wind stresses, the latent heat flux and the net heat flux into the ocean. The annual cycle of the crucial quantities needed to define the climatology of the tropics: SST, SLP, precipitation, winds and thermocline depth, will be presented. “Anomalies,” including those characteristic of ENSO, can be defined relative to this climatology. The major features of ENSO and the evolution of ENSO as we now know them will be presented, with some discussion of how typical an ENSO event is likely to be. Some effects of ENSO on the globe, especially tropical temperature and precipitation, Atlantic hurricane landings and monsoon rainfall will be described. Some observations of both higher frequencies (periods less than a year) and lower frequency (especially decadal variability) will be introduced. The nature and source of climate observations relevant to ENSO It would be valuable to have an accurate picture of the Earth's atmosphere and ocean throughout the temporal evolution of climatic variability but, unfortunately, the measurement of variables important for climate has a relatively short history.

Many climatic extremes around the globe, such as severe droughts and floods, can be attributed to the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific sea surface, termed the El Niño or Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Advances in our understanding of ENSO, in which Edward Sarachik and Mark Cane have been key participants, have led to marked improvements in our ability to predict its development months or seasons, allowing adaptation to global impacts. The book introduces basic concepts and builds to more detailed theoretical treatments. Chapters on the structure and dynamics of the tropical ocean and atmosphere place ENSO in a broader observational and theoretical context. Chapters on ENSO prediction, past and future, and impacts introduce broader implications of the phenomenon. This book provides an introduction to all aspects of this most important mode of global climate variability, for research workers and students of all levels in climate science, oceanography and related fields.

We begin by making some non-standard distinctions, solely for convenience in the following discussion. We will define “ENSO prediction” as the process of predicting the SST in the tropical Pacific a month to a year or so in advance. We will use “short-term climate prediction” to refer to the procedure of predicting the climatic conditions in the global atmosphere or over land away from the tropical Pacific a month to a year in advance. The utility of this distinction is that ENSO prediction can only be accomplished by coupled models, whereas short-term climate prediction, which depends in part on the thermal forcing due to the distribution of regions of persistent precipitation and is partly determined by the SST distribution in the tropical Pacific, can be accomplished by a global atmospheric model (with predicted tropical SST specified) but can also be accomplished by a fully coupled climate model. The distinction will become clearer in our discussion of one-tiered and two-tiered prediction below. The possibility that coupled climate models, whether simple or complex, can predict aspects of the future evolution of ENSO is not at all obvious. The atmosphere is known to be of limited predictability, basically because it is chaotic: inevitable small errors in the initial conditions grow and, depending on the growth rate, eventually limit the skill of prediction after a given time.

[1] The main goal of this study is to determine how well large-scale temperature, salinity, upper ocean heat content (UOHC), and surface mixed layer fields and their variability can be reconstructed from the Argo observing system. The approach is to sample and reconstruct these oceanic fields from a coarse-resolution ocean general circulation model (OGCM), quantify the errors in the reconstructed fields, and analyze the factors controlling these errors. In particular, this study analyzes the effects of float movements on the spatial coverage and reconstruction of temporal variability. Overall performance of the simulated Argo array is good, and the reconstructed climatological means of such key quantities as the temperature, salinity, UOHC, and mixed layer depth are very close to the actual OGCM-simulated values in most of the global ocean. However, the differences between the reconstructed and actual fields ("reconstruction errors") are more significant in several regions with strong currents, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The results also suggest that the detection of the year-to-year changes in UOHC in the ACC, in high-latitude North Atlantic, and near the coasts can be particularly problematic. As illustrated by sensitivity experiments, the main effect of float movements is to increase reconstruction errors. This adverse effect of float movements is the main cause of large errors in the UOHC interannual difference in the ACC. When the spatial sampling coverage is improved, for example, by increasing the number of floats, the accuracy of reconstruction improves substantially.

The fundamental modes of oscillation of a coupled atmosphere–ocean basin system in the presence of a spatially varying oceanic basic state are investigated by formulating and solving an eigenvalue problem, thereby extending the work of Hirst. The model reduces essentially to the linearized Zebiak and Cane model as discussed by Battisti and Hirst. With conventionally chosen basic states, the unstable eigenmode closely resembles the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in these models. It is shown that the unstable low-frequency eigenfunction consists primarily of a Kelvin mode and a gravest equatorial Rossby mode, and the oscillation can be understood in particularly simple term essentially those proposed by Suarez and Schopf and others. The oscillatory nature of the ENSO cycle can be explained by a transition mechanism resulting from the interaction of these two equatorial (but not necessarily propagating) modes. A growing unstable positive wind anomaly in the central Pacific produces a grow...

Several simple numerical experiments are conducted, using both single- and double-hemisphere ocean basins under symmetric steady forcing to study de ocean's thermohaline circulation. It is shown that a stable steady state obtained under a restoring surface boundary condition on salinity becomes unstable upon a switch to a flux boundary condition. The polar halocline catastrope of F. Bryan occurs. It is shown that further integration of this collapsed state ultimately yields a steady, stable one-cell circulation with the approach being essentially chaotic but with significant energy at decadal period. The two-hemisphere ocean passes through many stages in which violent overturning occurs O(80 × 101 m3 a−1). These flushes occurs in both hemispheres and are of one-cell structure. The time period between them Bushes varies from seveal hundred to about one thousand years. A single 12-vertical-level hemispheric basin, spun up from an initial state of rest under mixed boundary conditions (restoring boun...

A series of numerical experiments involving long‐time integrations are conducted using the Bryan‐Cox Ocean General Circulation Model under mixed surface boundary conditions (i.e. a Newtonian restoring surface boundary condition on temperature and a specified flux boundary condition on salinity). Under steady forcing the system oscillates with significant energy at decadal period. This oscillation is shown to be an advective phenomenon, associated with the propagation of salinity and temperature anomalies from the region between the subtropical and subpolar gyres, where they are generated, to the eastern boundary, where deep water is formed. Furthermore, the oscillation is characterized by the fluctuation of the thermohaline circulation between a state in which deep water is formed and a collapsed state in which no deep water is formed. Over the period of the oscillation the poleward heat transport changes by as much as a factor of 3 at certain latitudes. The anomalies are initially formed by the ...

In order to test certain aspects of the ENSO mechanism proposed by Suarez and Schopf and by Battisti and Hirst, we force a shallow water ocean with 28 years of observed (FSU) winds and decompose both the atmospheric forcing and ocean response into equatorial modes. The proposed mechanism was verified in the following sense. For each warm phase of the cycle, a downwelling Kelvin mode directly forced by the weakening of the trade winds in the central Pacific was found. The same wind anomaly forces an upwelling gravest Rossby mode which propagates freely westward and reflects as a freely propagating Kelvin mode at the western boundary. This Kelvin mode returns to the scene of the original warming and acts as a retarded forcing (of opposite sign) eventually switching the phase of the oscillation from warm to cold. The cold phase then proceeds by the same mechanism but with modes of opposite signs, to eventually switch to the warm phase. The contribution of the higher Rossby modes to this process is e...

In centered difference models of ocean circulation, two grid-point computational modes can be excited if grid Reynolds and Peclet numbers are greater than two. The Bryan-Cox General Circulation Model (GCM) is used to show the dramatic effect that this instability has on the equatorial thermohaline circulation. In many recent numerical calculations researchers have used 12 vertical levels. It is shown that this resolution produces an artificial cell at the equator when typical values of the vertical diffusivity and viscosity parameters are used. This artifical cell rotates counter to the primary cell driven by deep water formation at high latitudes, is driven by downwelling at the eastern boundary near the equator and is 40% the strength of the primary cell for the parameters used in the present study. When the vertical resolution is increased the cell vanishes. It is suggested therefore that higher vertical resolution should be used in Bryan-Cox GCM deep-ocean modeling studies when current values...

Four different datasets of monthly mean new-equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature for 1982–83 are compared, and the space-time regions for which there was consensus that cooling or warming took place, are determined. There was consensus that warming took place east of the date line, averaged over the period July-December 1982, and that the warming progressed eastward from the central Pacific. There was also consensus that weak cooling took place in April 1983, and that substantial cooling occurred in June-July 1983, generally over the central and eastern Pacific. However, the analyses tend to agree on the sign of SST change only in periods of cooling or warming in excess of 1°C/month; quantitative agreement at the level of 0.5°C/month or better is almost never found. SST changes in five ocean-circulation model hindcasts of the 1982–83 period (differing only in that each used a different analyzed monthly mean surface wind stress field to drive the ocean), are compared with the observations an...

Climate variability and change are considerably important for a wide range of human activities and natural ecosystems. Climate science has made major advances during the last two decades, yet climate information is neither routinely useful for nor used in planning. What is needed is a mechanism, a national climate service (NCS), to connect climate science to decision-relevant questions and support building capacity to anticipate, plan for, and adapt to climate fluctuations. This article contributes to the national debate for an NCS by describing the rationale for building an NCS, the functions and services it would provide, and how it should be designed and evaluated. The NCS is most effectively achieved as a federal interagency partnership with critically important participation by regional climate centers, state climatologists, the emerging National Integrated Drought Information System, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences Assessment (RISA) teams in a sustained relationship with a wide variety of stakeholders. Because the NCS is a service, and because evidence indicates that the regional spatial scale is most important for delivering climate services, given subnational geographical/geophysical complexity, attention is focused on lessons learned from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group's 10 years of experience, the first of the NOAA RISA teams.

Earth's present climate is intrinsically affected by the ocean—the climate without the ocean would be different in many essential ways: Without the evaporation of water from the sea surface, the hydrological cycle would be different; without ocean heat transport and uptake, the temperature distribution of the globe would be different; and without the biota in the ocean, the total amount of carbon in the atmosphere would be many time its current value. Yet, while we may appreciate the role of the ocean in climate, the difficulty and expense of making measurements below the ocean's surface has rendered the vast volume of the ocean a sort of mare incognita. Why is the ocean so important in Earth's climate, and which of its properties are of special significance for climate? How have we learned about the ocean and its role in climate, and what more do we need to know? Keywords: ocean density; thermohaline circulation; sea ice; World Ocean Circulation Experiment; Tropical Ocean–Global Atmosphere; El Nino–Southern Oscillation

THE ocean's thermohaline circulation, driven by fluxes of freshwater and heat through the ocean's surface, is important in the transport of heat from low to high latitudes. Changes in the intensity of this circulation, and hence the poleward heat transport, would have a significant effect on global climate. Numerous observations of the air–sea–ice climate system in and around the North Atlantic show significant variability on decadal and inter-decadal timescales1–11; these timescales suggest that the source of the variability lies in the ocean itself. Here we present the results of three numerical experiments which show the importance of freshwater flux forcing (the difference between precipitation and evaporation, or 'P–E') in exciting decadal and interdecadal oceanic variability. If a sufficiently strong local minimum exists in this P–E forcing field (as is observed over the Greenland Sea), self-sustained oscillations of the ocean circulation may be excited. We propose that such variability may be important in interpreting observations of decadal/interdecadal variability in the air‐sea–ice climate system.

We really don’t understand what causes decadal-to-centennial climate variability although we have some rudimentary ideas about the possible mechanisms. Which mechanism operates implies the existence and range of possible predictability. These lectures, therefore, have two purposes: 1) to look at the evidence for the various proposed mechanisms and see if any can be chosen as most likely (or if any can be rejected and thereby eliminated from further consideration) and 2) to see which of the mechanisms imply predictability of the decadal variability and which are intrinsically unpredictable. The variety of mechanisms is diverse, and, to save the reader from turning to the end to see how the story turns out, none can be totally eliminated at this stage. Indeed, more than one mechanism may apply at any given time at various places on the globe. It is impossible to be exhaustive in lectures of this type, so it is hoped that these lectures will serve as a guide to the ideas and literature of a field that is rapidly catching on as the realization takes hold that natural variability of the climate is omnipresent and important, and may be predictable.

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a phenomenon exhibiting near-global oscillations of sea level pressure and winds, with the largest amplitude in the tropical Southern Hemisphere. Most of the more intense manifestations of wind, sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation occur in the tropical Pacific, and it is there that most of the modelling and prediction efforts have been concentrated. The ENSO phenomenon appears cyclic, having well-defined sequences of events, but is not periodic, the historical record showing irregularities and long periods of time during which ENSO oscillations did not occur. When ENSO oscillations do occur, the local effects on the coast of Peru are economically catastrophic, and there are indications that mid-latitude weather is affected by equatorial SST anomalies. Consequently, there is great interest in predicting the occurrence of ENSO in the equatorial Pacific.

Recent predictions of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon have given indications that the onset of a warm event can be predicted as much as two years in advance. In this chapter these predictions will be reviewed, the dynamical mechanisms underlying the predictions will be discussed, and the relationship between mechanism and predictability will be analyzed.

We review simple instabilities in linear theories of coupled atmosphere-ocean models in both bounded and unbounded ocean basins and describe the mechanisms for instability in these linear theories. We then review nonlinear coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and relate the instabilities seen in linear theory to the fully nonlinear ENSO simulations. We present a general discussion of the relation between instability and predictability in the ENSO problem and review some recent work on predictability in coupled models. Finally, we comment on some recent predictions in light of our discussion of predictability.

It is shown that the (cumulus) convective processes in the tropics may be described by a one-dimensional cloud model, while the near-surface ocean may similarly be described by a one-dimensional mixed-layer model. The coupling is achieved through a sea surface flux budget combined with the flux parameterizations implied by Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. The coupled one-dimensional atmosphere-ocean model is applied to the equilibrium situation in which all temperatures reach a steady state. For the ocean, the fluxes must vanish in equilibrium, but the atmosphere maintains a stable lapse rate by balancing cumulonimbus heating against net radiative cooling. All water precipitating from cumulonimbus clouds must have evaporated from the sea. It is shown that this equilibrium system is closed and determinable solely in terms of the solar constant.

A model of the convectively driven mixed layer is used to interpret BOMEX Phase III data. It is concluded that the compensating downdrafts and the moisture transports due to trade cumulus must be included explicitly in any theory of the dynamics of the tropical mixed layer.

It is suggested that the gross mean vertical structure of the undisturbed tropical atmosphere may be understood in terms of convective boundary layers driven in different ways and on different time scales by the evaporation of water from the sea surface. The mixed layer on a short time scale is driven partly by the buoyancy produced by the light weight of the water vapor; the trade cumulus layer on an intermediate time scale by the buoyancy (but not heating) produced by the condensation of the water vapor in shallow trade cumulus clouds; and the troposphere itself on a long time scale by the buoyancyand heating produced by the condensation of the water vapor in the deep cumulonimbus clouds.