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Abstract Background In farm animals, mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) effect on economic performance remains hot-topic for breeding and genetic selection. Here, 53 maternal lineages of Small-tailed Han sheep were used to investigate the association of mitochondrial DNA variations and the lambing litter size. Results Sequence sweeping of the mitochondrial coding regions discovered 31 non-synonymous mutations, and the association study revealed that T7719G in mtDNA tRNA-Lys gene was associated with litter size (P 0.05). In addition, the nuclear major gene BMPR1B was significantly correlated with litter size in the flock (P 0.05). Conclusions Our results highlight mutations of ovine mitochondrial coding genes, suggesting T7719G in tRNA-Lys gene be a potentially useful marker for selection of sheep litter size.

Exposure to maternal obesity before and/or throughout pregnancy may increase the risk of obesity and insulin resistance in the offspring in childhood and adult life, therefore, resulting in its transmission into subsequent generations. We have previously shown that exposure to maternal obesity around the time of conception alone resulted in increased adiposity in female lambs. Changes in the abundance of insulin signalling molecules in skeletal muscle and adipose tissue precede the development of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes. It is not clear, however, whether exposure to maternal obesity results in insulin resistance in her offspring as a consequence of the impact of increased adiposity on skeletal muscle or as a consequence of the programming of specific changes in the abundance of insulin signalling molecules in this tissue. We have used an embryo transfer model in the sheep to investigate the effects of exposure to either maternal obesity or to weight loss in normal and obese mothers preceding and for one week after conception on the expression and abundance of insulin signalling molecules in muscle in the offspring. We found that exposure to maternal obesity resulted in lower muscle GLUT-4 and Ser 9 phospho-GSK3α and higher muscle GSK3α abundance in lambs when compared to lambs conceived in normally nourished ewes. Exposure to maternal weight loss in normal or obese mothers, however, resulted in lower muscle IRS1, PI3K, p110β, aPKCζ, Thr 642 phospho-AS160 and GLUT-4 abundance in the offspring. In conclusion, maternal obesity or weight loss around conception have each programmed specific changes on subsets of molecules in the insulin signalling, glucose transport and glycogen synthesis pathways in offspring. There is a need for a stronger evidence base to ensure that weight loss regimes in obese women seeking to become pregnant minimize the metabolic costs for the next generation.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is transforming biodiversity monitoring in aquatic environments. Such an approach has been developed and deployed for monitoring lake fish communities in Great Britain, where the method has repeatedly shown a comparable or better performance than conventional approaches. Previous analyses indicated that 20 water samples per lake are sufficient to reliably estimate fish species richness, but it is unclear how reduced eDNA sampling effort affects richness, or other biodiversity estimates and metrics. As the number of samples strongly influences the cost of monitoring programmes, it is essential that sampling effort is optimised for a specific monitoring objective. The aim of this project was to explore the effect of reduced eDNA sampling effort on biodiversity metrics (namely species richness and community composition) using algorithmic and statistical resampling techniques of a data set from 101 lakes, covering a wide spectrum of lake types and ecological quality. The results showed that reliable estimation of lake fish species richness could, in fact, usually be achieved with a much lower number of samples. For example, in almost 90% of lakes, 95% of complete fish richness could be detected with only 10 water samples, regardless of lake area. Similarly, other measures of alpha and beta-diversity were not greatly affected by a reduction in sample size from 20 to 10 samples. We also found that there is no significant difference in detected species richness between shoreline and offshore sampling transects, allowing for simplified field logistics. This could potentially allow the effective sampling of a larger number of lakes within a given monitoring budget. However, rare species were more often missed with fewer samples, with potential implications for monitoring of invasive or endangered species. These results should inform the design of eDNA sampling strategies, so that these can be optimised to achieve specific monitoring goals.

Peat soils are high in soil organic matter (SOM) and are recognised stores of carbon. Knowledge of the spatial distribution of peat soils is becoming the focus of many studies and is related closely to peatland mapping. Accurate maps of peat soils have many applications of international importance e.g., gaseous emission inventory reporting or soil organic carbon stock accounting. Traditional mapping methods include in-situ soil auger sampling or peat probing (for depth) while modern methods also incorporate satellite data (optical and radar). However, both methods have limitations. Traditional sampling often omits boundaries and transition zones between peat and mineral soils, while satellite data only measure the surface and may not be able to penetrate landcover, potentially omitting areas of peat under, for example, grassland or forestry. Radiometrics is a measurement of naturally occurring gamma radiation. Peat soils attenuate this radiation through high soil moisture content. For the present study in Ireland, the supervised classification of gridded airborne radiometric data, acquired over multiple years, is performed using neural network pattern recognition to identify areas of peat and non-peat soils. Classification confidence values are used to identify the transition zone between these soil types, providing a simplified visualisation of this transition. Validation is performed using Loss on Ignition (LOI %) point data and several different (blanket bog, raised bog, transition zone) sites in Ireland, showing classified data can detect the presence of peat soils from broad to local scales. Airborne geophysical methods, in particular airborne radiometrics, can bridge the gap between the accuracy of point measurement and the spatial coverage of satellite data to identify peat soils by providing uniform data and objective analysis. The resulting map is a step towards understanding the true spatial distribution of peat soils in Ireland, including transition zones.

Bohman, James. Democracy across Borders: From Demos to Demoi. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2007. 232 pages. Cloth, $35. A fascinating and thought-provoking contribution to political philosophy, Bohman's book presents a [...]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Abstract Seasonal variation in habitat use and animal behavior can alter host contact patterns with potential consequences for pathogen transmission dynamics. The endangered Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) has experienced significant pathogen-induced mortality and continues to be at risk of future epidemics. Prior research has found increased panther movement in Florida’s dry versus wet seasons, which may affect panther population connectivity and seasonally increase potential pathogen transmission. Our objective was to determine if Florida panthers are more spatially connected in dry seasons relative to wet seasons, and test if identified connectivity differences resulted in divergent predicted epidemic dynamics. We leveraged extensive panther telemetry data to construct seasonal panther home range overlap networks over an 11 year period. We tested for differences in network connectivity, and used observed network characteristics to simulate transmission of a broad range of pathogens through dry and wet season networks. We found that panthers were more spatially connected in dry seasons than wet seasons. Further, these differences resulted in a trend toward larger and longer pathogen outbreaks when epidemics were initiated in the dry season. Our results demonstrate that seasonal variation in behavioral patterns—even among largely solitary species—can have substantial impacts on epidemic dynamics.

Antigua has substantially more preceramic sites than any other island in the Lesser Antilles. Archaic peoples made extensive use of the high-quality flint that is common on Antigua to produce industries dominated by unretouched flakes and blades. Analysis of the largest excavated Archaic assemblage from the island reveals that flaked-stone technology centered around the production of direct-percussion blades, and that the majority of other flake classes are by-products of blade production. The assemblage's five major morphological classes of blades appear to represent successive stages of core reduction., Sometime between the seventh and the fifth millenia B.C., groups of Archaic fisher-foragers moved northward from the continental island of Trinidad to colonize the oceanic archipelago of the West Indies […]

IntroductionThe mapping of soil properties, such as soil texture, at the field scale is important Q6 in the context of national agricultural planning/policy and precision agriculture. Electromagnetic Induction (EMI) surveys are commonly used to measure soil apparent electrical conductivity and can provide valuable insights into such subsurface properties. MethodsMulti-receiver or multi-frequency instruments provide a vertical distribution of apparent conductivity beneath the instrument, while the mobility of such instruments allows for spatial coverage. Clustering is the grouping together of similar multi-dimensional data, such as the processed EMI data over a field. A neural network clustering process, where the number of clusters can be objectively determined, results in a set of one-dimensional apparent electrical conductivity cluster centers, which are representative of the entire three-dimensional dataset. These cluster centers are used to guide inversions of apparent conductivity data to give an estimate of the true electrical conductivity distribution at a site.Results and discussionThe method is applied to two sites and the results demonstrate a correlation between (true) electrical conductivity with soil texture (sampled prior to the EMI surveys) which is superior to correlations where no clustering is included. The method has the potential to be developed further, with the aim of improving the prediction of soil properties at cluster scale, such as texture, from EMI data. A particularly important conclusion from this initial study is that EMI data should be acquired prior to a focused soil sampling campaign to calibrate the electrical conductivity – soil property correlations.

The MIRI Exoplanets Orbiting White dwarfs survey is a cycle 2 JWST program to search for exoplanets around dozens of nearby white dwarfs via infrared excess and direct imaging. In this Letter, we present the detection of mid-infrared excess at 18 and 21 μ m toward the bright ( V = 11.4) metal-polluted white dwarf WD 0310–688. The source of the IR excess is almost certainly within the system; the probability of background contamination is

Nelson, Paul J., and Ellen Dorsey. New Rights Advocacy: Changing Strategies of Development and Human Rights NGOs. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2008. 232 pages. Paper, $26.95. An important attempt [...]

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito-borne illness in the continental USA. WNV occurrence has high spatiotemporal variation, and current approaches to targeted control of the virus are limited, making forecasting a public health priority. However, little research has been done to compare strengths and weaknesses of WNV disease forecasting approaches on the national scale. We used forecasts submitted to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge, an open challenge organized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, to assess the status of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) prediction and identify avenues for improvement. Methods We performed a multi-model comparative assessment of probabilistic forecasts submitted by 15 teams for annual WNND cases in US counties for 2020 and assessed forecast accuracy, calibration, and discriminatory power. In the evaluation, we included forecasts produced by comparison models of varying complexity as benchmarks of forecast performance. We also used regression analysis to identify modeling approaches and contextual factors that were associated with forecast skill. Results Simple models based on historical WNND cases generally scored better than more complex models and combined higher discriminatory power with better calibration of uncertainty. Forecast skill improved across updated forecast submissions submitted during the 2020 season. Among models using additional data, inclusion of climate or human demographic data was associated with higher skill, while inclusion of mosquito or land use data was associated with lower skill. We also identified population size, extreme minimum winter temperature, and interannual variation in WNND cases as county-level characteristics associated with variation in forecast skill. Conclusions Historical WNND cases were strong predictors of future cases with minimal increase in skill achieved by models that included other factors. Although opportunities might exist to specifically improve predictions for areas with large populations and low or high winter temperatures, areas with high case-count variability are intrinsically more difficult to predict. Also, the prediction of outbreaks, which are outliers relative to typical case numbers, remains difficult. Further improvements to prediction could be obtained with improved calibration of forecast uncertainty and access to real-time data streams (e.g. current weather and preliminary human cases). Graphical Abstract

Space scientists often face the question of whether data collected by different instruments are measurements of the same source population. This paper proposes a statistical validation method for evaluating the agreement between such related data sets. It offers a detailed case study focused on validating a new data set from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, which serves as a practical how-to guide for similar analyses. Since 2008, the IBEX satellite has been gathering data on heliospheric energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) while being exposed to various sources of background noise, such as cosmic rays and solar energetic particles. The IBEX mission initially released only a qualified triple-coincidence (qABC) data product, which was designed to provide observations of ENAs free of background contamination. Further measurements revealed that the qABC data were in fact susceptible to contamination, having relatively low ENA counts and high background rates. To mitigate this issue, the mission team recently considered releasing a certain qualified double-coincidence (qBC) data product, which has roughly twice the detection rate of the qABC data product. This paper presents a simulation-based validation of the new qBC data product against the already-released qABC data product. The results show that the qBCs can plausibly be said to be measuring the same source population as the qABCs up to an average absolute deviation of 3.6%. Visual diagnostics provide additional confirmation of source rate coherence across data products. The framework introduced here is general and can be applied to other validation problems both within and outside the field of space physics.